With the stock market up so much this year, investors might expect a healthy stretch of continued gains. But right now, the case for a long-term bull market depends on whether the S&P 500 breaks above a key level it has struggled to pass.
The index has risen about 12% this year, lifted by the view that while economic growth will take a hit in the near term, it will stabilize soon enough. The positive case is that the Federal Reserve is almost finished lifting interest rates as it tries to tamp down the rate of inflation, with positive effects on economic growth. That will help corporate earnings to grow in general, while the big tech companies that have helped to boost the market this year will get an extra boost as they use artificial intelligence to expand their offerings.
But a few hurdles for the market stand in the way. The S&P 500, at just below the 4300 level, is down from its intraday peak this year of about 4607, hit in July. The main reason for the dip is that the Fed has made clear that it intends on keeping rates higher for longer than the market had expected, which means it will take longer for the economy and corporate profits to regain steam.
To justify hopes of longer-term gains, the S&P 500 needs to break above that July peak, but past failures to move higher make it clear that there are few buyers at that level. That signals a lack of confidence in the outlook for the economy and for profits.
And those doubts could mean more downside, especially with the S&P 500 dipping a bit below 4300 Tuesday. Buyers rushed in to send the index upward at that level earlier this year, but this time around, those buyers haven't showed up in the same way.
Right now, "the bulls need a sustained advance that results in a decisive break out above 4607," wrote Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist at ICAP.
Even a market that flatlines for a while after the harsh declines of the past couple of months could be a positive, signaling that buyers are starting to come in. A gain to above 4607 could follow soon enough, but until it happens, no one can be confident that a new bull market has begun.
The market remains in limbo for the moment.
