反垄断压力下，Alphabet三季报“临危不惧”？

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反垄断压力下，Alphabet三季报“临危不惧”？

金十数据2023-10-24

过去30天内，谷歌收入预期一直维持稳定，似乎并未受到美国司法部牵头的反垄断诉讼影响。Alphabet(GOOGL.O)计划将于10月24日（周二）美股盘后公布2023年三季报。对于本季度的收入，研究机构Zacks一致预期为631.3亿美元，较去年同期提高了10.2%。每股盈利预期为1.45美元，较去年同期上涨36.8%。过去30天内谷歌母公司Alphabet收入预期一直维持稳定，似乎并未受到...

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Experience）利用生成式AI技术使搜索结果更加自然和直观，很可能为业绩做出了很好的贡献。凭借大型语言模型驱动的增强搜索结果，预计将在本季度推动谷歌搜索势头。大型语言模型加上多重搜索和视觉探索功能，预计将持续改进搜索结果。谷歌Lens和谷歌地图功能的改进预计将使搜索流量受益。Zacks对谷歌搜索和其他收入的一致预期为430.4亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长8.9%。德银分析师认为，随着对ChatGPT的担忧消退以及广告商选择Google搜索，搜索广告收入仍保持“弹性”。除此之外，融入生成式AI技术的广告产品，预计将为谷歌第三季度的广告收入做出巨大贡献。广告商的稳定支出预计将使广告业务受益。Zacks对谷歌广告的预期为589.4亿美元，较去年同期增长8.2%。德银分析师上周五在一份报告中表示，YouTube在第三和第四季度也显示出增长势头加速的迹象，因为品牌广告“闪现出复苏的迹象”。就YouTube的非广告收入而言，YouTube Shorts用户势头的增强可能是一个顺风车。谷歌不断努力加强与内容创作者的关系，这可能起到了积极的作用。YouTubeTV和YouTube Primetime频道的强劲势头，YouTube Premium的重大更新可能是另一个积极因素。公司CEO桑达尔·皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)表示，每月约有20亿登录用户观看YouTube Shorts，高于去年Q2的15亿。华尔街资管公司科文分析师John Blackledge一份报告中表示，由于更好的定价和YouTube的实力，Q3谷歌搜索上的广告支出同比“加速”约13%，该分析师维持了谷歌“跑赢大盘”的评级，并将谷歌的目标价提高到150-160美元。此外，Android 13和Pixel设备的增长势头也可能为业绩报告带来一定贡献。所有上述因素预计都将有利于谷歌服务业务第三季度的业绩表现。云计算谷歌的云业务在一季度实现三年来首次盈利，二季度收入达80亿美元，环比增长8%。市场预计，随着人工智能的发展，这种增长势头可能会在三季度持续下去。不断扩大的云服务组合和数据中心数量，以及谷歌云平台和Google Workspace的稳定表现，都将利好三季报表现。生成式AI支持的云产品料将推动谷歌在云客户中的发展势头。Zacks对谷歌云收入的一致预期为85.4亿美元，同比增长24.3%。监管压力搜索引擎业务是该公司的主要业务，当前正面临来自华盛顿的监管压力。美国司法部指责这家搜索巨头通过向苹果等其他公司付费，而使自身成为相关设备上的默认搜索引擎，从而强行占据市场主导地位。其次，美国司法部还认为，这会阻止包括微软“必应”、私营的DuckDuckGo在内的其他搜索引擎参与竞争。谷歌对此辩称，其主导市场份额（有人估计其市场份额达90%）的现实，是因为其产品性能更加优越，而不是因为它向其他公司支付费用，使之成为默认选项。尽管目前搜索市场整体低迷，但谷歌的广告销售额仍持续增长数十亿美元。Monness Crespi Hardt分析师Brian White在一份报告中指出：“我们相信Alphabet处于有利位置，能够利用数字广告趋势，参与云计算的增长，利用人工智能进行创新，从数字化转型中受益，并利用更精简的成本结构……然而，监管阻力依然存在，我们认为，这次经济低迷时期最黑暗的日子就在前面。”对此，Piper Sandler分析师Thomas Champion在本月初的报告中表示：“我们预计谷歌将成为人工智能领域的赢家。尽管司法部已经开始审判，而且基础设施投资似乎也在增加，但其股价仍表现出色。”他补充道，人工智能正在“带来新的机遇”，核心搜索包括Gen AI搜索。谷歌的Duet AI助手正在接受测试，可能会进一步推动新的云收入。Alphabet股价于10月11日创下一年多来的最高收盘价（140.55美元），延续了10月份的涨势。杰富瑞分析师Brent Thill认为，“我们相信，即使年初至今上涨了58%，Alphabet(GOOGL.O)仍具有上涨空间，这要归功于：①广告收入增长逐渐加速，②得益于积极的检查结果和搜索领域的显著增长；③云计算收入受益于成本优化高峰已过；④人工智能的助力将在2024年至2025年间发挥作用。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}