March inflation data and the start of first-quarter earnings season will make for a busy week for investors. Economists and Federal Reserve watchers will also get a look at minutes from the central bank’s last policy meeting.
Earning season kicks off in earnest on Friday with results from several big U.S. banks. Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo will report, as will BlackRock and State Street. Other companies releasing their results this week will include Delta Air Lines on Wednesday then CarMax, Constellation Brands, and Fastenal on Thursday.
The economic data highlight of the week will be highly anticipated March inflation figures. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index for March is expected to be up by 3.4% from a year earlier. Consensus calls for a 3.7% year-over-year increase in the core CPI, which excludes food and energy components. The BLS will publish the March producer price index on Thursday.
Other data to watch include several sentiment surveys: the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for March on Monday, the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for March on Tuesday, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for April on Friday.
On the central bank front, the Federal Open Market Committee will publish minutes from its mid-March meeting on Wednesday afternoon. Then, the European Central Bank will announce a monetary policy decision on Thursday.
Monday 4/8
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Survey of Consumer Expectations for March. Consumers’ expectations for the year-ahead inflation was 3.04% in February, near a three year low, and down from a peak of 6.78% in June of 2022.
Tuesday 4/9
The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 90 reading, slightly higher than in February.
Wednesday 4/10
Delta Air Lines announces first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings.
The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its mid-March monetary policy meeting. At the meeting, the FOMC kept the federal-funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 3.4% year-over-year increase, two-tenths of a percentage point more than in February. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3.7%, a tenth of a percentage point less than previously. CPI data have come in hotter than expected this year and, along with continued strength in the labor market, have caused bond yields to hit new highs for the year. Nevertheless, equity investors have taken it in stride, with the S&P 500 trading just shy of its record high.
Thursday 4/11
CarMax, Constellation Brands, and Fastenal hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.
The European Central Bank announces its monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 4%. As with the Federal Reserve, the ECB’s next policy move will likely be rate cuts, with traders eyeing the June meeting for the ECB’s first cut and July for the FOMC’s.
The BLS releases the producer price index for March. Economists forecast a 2.3% year-over-year rise for both the PPI and the core PPI. This compares with increases of 1.6% and 2%, respectively, in February.
Friday 4/12
BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, State Street, and Wells Fargo release earnings.
The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for a 78.7 reading, slightly less than previously. March’s 79.4 reading was the highest since July of 2021, as a strong economy and moderating inflation have brightened consumers’ moods, albeit from low levels.
