小心美股“业绩杀”！小摩警告：市场过度乐观

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小心美股“业绩杀”！小摩警告：市场过度乐观

智通财经04-15

摩根大通策略师警告称，不要指望乐观的企业财报季会推动美国股市走高，因为在今年创纪录的上涨之后，大部分乐观情绪已经被消化了。Mislav Matejka领导的摩根大通研究团队表示，第一季度的利润预期已经被下调，这降低了美国企业超越预期的门槛。策略师们表示，剔除科技巨头后，标普500指数成分股企业盈利预计将全面下滑。Matejka表示，与此同时，投资者仓位看起来“非常紧张”。由于对美国经济韧性和利率...

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JPMorgan warns: the market is overly optimistic","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97179696d47c8f6e5f1d5560387f0b76","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"摩根大通策略师警告称，不要指望乐观的企业财报季会推动美国股市走高，因为在今年创纪录的上涨之后，大部分乐观情绪已经被消化了。Mislav Matejka领导的摩根大通研究团队表示，第一季度的利润预期已经被下调，这降低了美国企业超越预期的门槛。策略师们表示，剔除科技巨头后，标普500指数成分股企业盈利预计将全面下滑。Matejka表示，与此同时，投资者仓位看起来“非常紧张”。由于对美国经济韧性和利率下降的乐观情绪，美国基准指数升至纪录高位。他表示:“股市已经有了不错的表现，这表明投资者比卖方分析师所传达的悲观盈利预测更为乐观。”“我们需要看到明显的盈利加速，以证明当前的股票估值是合理的，我们担心这可能不会实现。”标普500指数成份股公司的利润预期正在下降Matejka表示，迄今已公布业绩的美国公司中，有一半在公布当日的表现逊于市场。尽管标普500指数第一季度上涨了10%，但摩根大通股票策略师仍是华尔街较为悲观的人士之一。在高于预期的通胀数据降低了美联储降息的可能性后，美股的涨幅略有回落。伊朗史无前例地袭击以色列后，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，也加剧了市场动荡。Matejka表示，股市低估了物价压力上升对美联储政策和债券收益率的影响。他表示:“虽然收益率的部分变动可能是由于乐观的增长前景，但我们认为大部分是由粘性通胀推动的。”“利率因‘错误原因’飙升、美联储政策重心完全逆转以及通胀持续过热的风险都在上升。”摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson也就更高利率对股票估值的影响发出了警告。他预计，随着美国10年期国债收益率飙升至4.4%以上，股市将对利率表现出更大的敏感性。\"从表面上看，随着市场对质量和盈利能力变得更加挑剔，估值分散度正在上升，\" Wilson表示。“财报季期间股市的反应可能会显示出估值存在多大风险。”并非所有人都如此悲观。法国兴业银行策略师Manish Kabra预计，强劲的财报季将继续推动美国股市上涨。他上周表示，尽管美债收益率上升可能对标普500指数带来不利影响，但“美联储利率长期企稳应会抑制收益率。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}