Bond Traders Favor Half-Point Rate Cut Despite Retail Sales Data

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Bond Traders Favor Half-Point Rate Cut Despite Retail Sales Data

Blockhead09-17

(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders are favoring bets that Federal Reserve officials will kick off their interest-rate cutting cycle with a half-point move this week, undeterred by retail sales data.The ...

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Traders have fully priced in a full quarter-point worth of easing.“The decision is essentially a coin flip,” Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, told Bloomberg Television. “It is possible we get a 50-basis-point cut tomorrow,” and the Fed’s summary of economic projections “will probably show the dot plot has 100 basis points worth of cuts for the year as a whole.”US retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, supported by online purchases that masked more mixed results at other merchants. The data pushed Treasuries lower, with the two-year yield rising four basis points to 3.58% and the 10-year steady around 3.62%. The dollar gained modestly against most of its Group-of-10 currency peers. Debate over the size of the Fed’s first rate cut in four years has been dominating financial markets for months, fueled by economic reports and speeches by Fed officials. Traders have most recently piled into bets on a larger, 50-basis-point move as speculation mounted over the Fed’s decision. The swaps market is pricing in some 77 basis points worth of easing by the November meeting, implying one half-point move over the next two decisions.--With assistance from Liz Capo McCormick.©2024 Bloomberg L.P.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}