Equities were moving higher on the week in a narrow trading range before news broke late Thursday that Israel had attacked Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Subsequently oil prices spiked, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, up 7% on Friday to $74.23 a barrel. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on the day, ending the week down 0.4% at 5976.97.
But even before the latest flareup of Middle East tensions, stocks could barely muster a rally despite benign inflation readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Wednesday and Thursday. That suggests that it'll take a new catalyst for the S&P 500 to push above its record close of 6144.15 from earlier this year.
The main event of the coming shortened trading week is the two-day Federal Open Market Committee's monetary-policy meeting, which will culminate at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. Wall Street will be eager to hear Powell's current view on the balance of risks to the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
The Census Bureau is slated to release retail sales and housing starts data on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
On a sparse earnings calendar, Lennar reports quarterly results on Monday, followed by Jabil on Tuesday. After Thursday's Juneteenth national holiday, traders come back to earnings from Accenture, CarMax, and Kroger on Friday.
Monday 6/16
Lennar reports second-quarter earnings for its 2025 fiscal year.
Tuesday 6/17
Jabil announces third-quarter earnings for its 2025 fiscal year.
The Census Bureau reports retail and food services sales for May. Economists tracked by Bloomberg forecast a 0.7% month-over-month decline, following a 0.1% rise in April. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to increase 0.2%, one-tenth of a percentage point more than previously.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for June. Consensus estimate is for a 36 reading, two points more than in May. Readings less than 50 suggest the homebuilders aren't confident about the current and near-term outlook for the housing market.
Wednesday 6/18
The Census Bureau reports residential construction data for May. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.36 million privately-owned housing starts, about even with the April figure.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The FOMC is all but certain to leave the federal-funds rate unchanged at 4.25% -- 4.50%. The central bank will also release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. In the March SEP, the committee penciled in two quarter-point rate cuts through the end of the year.
Of greater interest on Wall Street is Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference. Powell has been in wait-and-see mode ever since the implementation of the White House's tariff policy, stating on multiple occasions that the FOMC didn't need to be in a hurry to adjust interest rates and was well positioned to respond once there was more clarity through the incoming economic data.
With this past week's benign inflation data and small cracks in the labor market--initial jobless claims have averaged 240,250 over the past four weeks, up 27,750 since the beginning of year--investors will be keen to hear if Powell changes his tune.
Thursday 6/19
Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day.
Friday 6/20
Accenture, CarMax, Darden Restaurants, and Kroger release quarterly results.
