Last week the S&P 500 notched three record closing highs in an abbreviated trading week, shrugging off the looming reciprocal tariff deadline of July 9. Equities were buoyed by another solid jobs report on Thursday, as well as the increasing likelihood that Republicans will pass President Donald Trump's tax bill.
The Trump administration has announced only a couple of tariff deals with other countries so far and has more than 100 countries to negotiate with, so there could be a flurry of action early this week. Investors so far have been sanguine about tariff-headline risk, buying most dips in the past two months -- and being rewarded for it.
Outside of trade negotiations it will be a very quiet week, with very little economic data and few earnings reports for Wall Street to assess.
The National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index on Tuesday, and Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its June meeting.
On Thursday Delta Air Lines and Levi Strauss will report quarterly results.
Tuesday 7/8
The NFIB releases its Small Business Optimism Index for June. Consensus estimate is for a 97.9 reading, about one point less than in May. That would be right in line with the 51-year average of 98 for the index.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Survey of Consumer Expectations for June. In May consumers' expectations of the year ahead inflation was 3.2%, moderating after hitting a 19-month high of 3.6% in April.
Wednesday 7/9
The White House's 90-day reciprocal tariff pause ends Wednesday. So far the U.S. has announced trade deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, as well a truce with China, giving more time for discussions. With more than 100 countries awaiting deals, President Trump recently said he will not extend the deadline.
The FOMC releases the minutes from its mid-June monetary-policy meeting. At that meeting the FOMC left the federal-funds rate unchanged at 4.25% -- 4.5%. The central bank has been on hold since last December and looks set to take the summer off as another solid jobs report released last week pushed traders to price in almost no chance of a rate cut at the late-July meeting.
Thursday 7/10
Conagra Brands, Delta Air Lines, and Levi Strauss report quarterly results.
The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5. Claims averaged 241,500 a week in June, up from 215,200 in January.
Friday 7/11
The Treasury Department releases the U.S. budget statement for June. Through the first eight months of fiscal 2025, which began last October, the U.S. had a budget deficit of $1.4 trillion, compared with a deficit of $1.2 trillion over the same period in fiscal 2024.
