The equity rally took a breather as all three major indexes declined modestly last week. Wall Street pared back bets on interest-rate cuts, as incoming economic data were generally stronger than expected. Second-quarter gross-domestic-product growth was revised higher by half a percentage point to 3.8%, and weekly jobless claims were the lowest in more than two months, easing some concerns over the state of the labor market.
This week, investors will get an update on the labor market when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report on Friday -- assuming the BLS is open for business. Tuesday night is the deadline for an agreement between lawmakers to fund the federal government; without one, there will be a government shutdown.
Other economic data on the week include ADP's National Employment Report and the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, both to be released on Wednesday. The ISM will also release its Services PMI on Friday.
Cruiseline operator Carnival will report earnings on Monday, sneaker retailer Nike on Tuesday, and packaged-foods manufacturer Conagra Brands on Wednesday.
Monday 9/29
Carnival, Jefferies Financial Group, and Vail Resorts report quarterly results.
The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales for August. Consensus estimate is for a 0.1% month-over-month increase, after a 0.4% decline in July.
Tuesday 9/30
Lamb Weston Holdings, Nike, and Paychex release earnings.
S&P Cotality releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for July. Home prices rose 1.9% year-over-year in June, led by New York City, Chicago, and Cleveland, among the 20 cities tracked by S&P. Prices rose 7%, 6.1%, and 4.5%, respectively, in those three cities. Tampa and San Francisco were the worst-performing markets, with prices declining 2.4% and 2%, respectively.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 7.1 million job openings on the last business day of August, 81,000 fewer than in July.
The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for September. Economists forecast a 95.8 reading, about two points lower than in August.
Funding for the U.S. government runs out at 11:59 p.m. unless Congress can hammer out an agreement on a new budget or a stopgap funding bill. A government shutdown would affect the release of some economic data, including the jobs report.
Wednesday 10/1
Cal-Maine Foods, Conagra Brands, and RPM International announce quarterly results.
ADP releases its National Employment Report for September. Expectations are for a 50,000 increase in private-sector employment, following a 54,000 gain in August. Employees who remained at their jobs saw a median pay increase of 4.4% in August.
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a 49.2 reading, half a point more than in August.
Thursday 10/2
The Department of Labor is scheduled to report initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 27th. Claims were 218,000 last week, the lowest figure since mid-July.
Friday 10/3
The BLS is scheduled to release the jobs report for September. Economists forecast an increase of 50,000 in nonfarm payrolls, after a 22,000 gain in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Jobs growth has averaged only 26,750 a month over the past four months, and a weakening labor market has been flagged by several Federal Reserve governors as justification for accelerated cuts to the federal-funds rate. But the unemployment rate is low by historical standards, and layoffs remain muted in a "no hire, no fire" dynamic.
ISM releases its Services PMI for September. The consensus call is for a 52 reading, which would match the August data.
