To The Moon

50% gain from taking calls to the upside. Expect to breach double top for a higher high this week from dip buyers. ⚠️ Looking at calls above 429.7 and puts below 426.4 on Wednesday 😎

Trading in the U.S. index futures suggests stocks continue to be optimistic ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Traders are turning bullish from dip buying before the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled for June 13-14.

Seven major S&P sectors finished Tuesday’s session with gains. The financial sector added 1.3%, boosted by regional banking stocks and bellwethers like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Bullish momentum to follow

Tuesday’s uptrend trailed last week’s blowout rally. However, continued modest gains instead of sharp pullbacks after a major upswing could signal more good news ahead, said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments.

“The fact that it refuses to fall to me is extremely bullish,” he said. “Normally, after a big run up, you see a market pullback, and when the market doesn’t pull back and goes sideways, that to me is very bullish.”

The current expectation of the FED during the FOMC meeting next week is that rates will stay the same and that the FED is going to "pause" rate changes. The May Jobs report helped lift the prospect of a rate pause but that data combined with the CPI report next week could mean otherwise.

CPI data on June 13 will help Fed to PAUSE

Late last month, the PCE report indicated continued stickiness in consumer prices and the CPI report being released on June 13th at 8:30AM Eastern could show the same thing, leading to a change in market sentiment over rates. With a robust jobs market, companies have an incentive to keep prices high since they know consumers are being paid.

The concern that should be on everyone's mind is the record high household debt on which the nation is currently seeing increasing defaults. If jobs can't sustain this strength, that shakey debt load can push banks to tighten lending, rapidly cooling the economy.

Inflation shed taking effect

This isn't to say that there won't be a "pause" or even a "skip" in rate changes announced at this upcoming meeting, but there's data to fuel the suggestion that the FED could do otherwise. It is to say, however, that the current expectations are optimisitic.

The FED will meet two more times before they meet again in September, as no meeting is scheduled for August. The FED members will be in Jackson Hole WY for their annual symposium that month.

Breaking double top in sight 😎

Today's candle looks more bullish than yesterday's on this SPY chart. With the double top at 429.67 and 432 expected to be a big level of resistance, the RSI on the verge of overbought, and the VIX printing multi-year lows, the market is signaling a topping out soon.

While there may be pullback from any near-term top, this market could continue to extend higher afterwards for no fundamental reason, fanning the flames of optimisitc expectations.

Trade #1

Trade #2

Trade #3

Tomorrow's big economic news are reports on ADP Employment Change, Trade Balances, and Canada's Interest Rate Decision but there are certain headwinds manifesting that can become a problem for stocks.

Another problem for equity markets is the issuance of new debt since the debt limit bill became law. Money that would have otherwise found its way into stocks will go into the Treasury market. 

@CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion