To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

In the early months of 2024, Tesla's (TSLA) stock has taken a bit of a dip, going against the trend of doubling up in the previous year. As we gear up for the fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, analysts are pulling down their profit estimates based on the last few months of 2023.

Spilling the beans on January 2, Tesla spilled the tea that their fourth-quarter deliveries went above what Wall Street expected. The global EV giant managed to break sales records and meet their full-year targets. Despite this good news, analyst reactions were a bit muted, with all eyes on the year-end earnings and potential profit challenges in 2024.

Elon Musk's Tesla shared some deadly figures, dropping off 484,507 vehicles in the fourth quarter and a total of 1.81 million in 2023, smashing their 1.8 million goal. Even though the stock took a bit of a hit, dropping over 14% in January, analysts kept their price targets and ratings steady for TSLA.

As we approach the Q4 earnings, investors are dying to know whether it's the right time to buy or sell Tesla stock. The focus on auto gross profit margins, stabilizing vehicle prices, and the overall performance in 2024 is ramping up the excitement.

Tesla had a record-breaking Q4, delivering 461,538 Model 3/Y vehicles and 22,969 of "other models," showing off their diverse product lineup. The previous record was in Q2 with 466,140 units, and in Q3, TSLA delivered 435,059 units.

With Tesla gearing up to spill the tea on full-year and fourth-quarter earnings on January 24, Wall Street is predicting a 39% drop in EPS to 73 cents and a 5% bump in revenue to $25.61 billion for Q4. Analysts are also foreseeing a 25% dip in 2023 earnings to $3.07 per share, with sales hitting $97.46 billion, a 20% rise from 2022.

Looking ahead to 2024, it seems Wall Street is expecting earnings to stay below 2022 levels, sparking questions about where Tesla is headed.

Despite some hurdles, like the recent stock dip following not-so-great Q3 earnings and revenue on October 18, Elon Musk is keeping the faith in Tesla's future. He gave a heads up on an earnings call, talking about challenges with the Cybertruck and the economy, which caused a 9.3% drop in Tesla stock the next day.

The Tesla-Elon Musk combo has always been lively, with events like him taking over Twitter in October 2022 and making strategic moves to calm everyone down. But the ups and downs in Tesla stock continue, influenced by Musk's social media comments and his recent craving for more TSLA shares and voting power.

As Tesla rolls out a global price-cutting plan, analysts are keeping an eye on auto gross profit margins and how continuous price drops will play out. Recent price cuts in China and tweaks to Model 3 and Model Y prices are under a magnifying glass, reflecting ongoing worries about Tesla's sales momentum and competitive standing.

Tesla's spot in the Chinese market is facing challenges as local EV companies give them a run for their money. BYD, in particular, outpaced Tesla in global BEV deliveries in Q4 2023 and is spreading its wings in Europe, going head-to-head with Tesla on multiple fronts.

Regulatory pressures are also hanging over Tesla, with ongoing investigations into faulty parts and safety concerns. Recent findings about suspension and steering issues could shake up Tesla's position, potentially leading to recalls and legal headaches.

Amidst all these challenges, Tesla supporters are betting on the potential of a next-gen $25,000 electric vehicle, expecting an announcement in the next six to nine months. But uncertainties linger about production timelines, cost-cutting moves, and eligibility for tax credits.

With Tesla stock dropping over 14% in January and slipping below key technical levels, investors are stuck in a bind – should they buy now or hold off? Technical analysis suggests possible buy points at 265.13 and 278.98, but the stock is currently in a bit of an awkward double-bottom base.

In conclusion, while Tesla has had some deadly runs and played a key role in reshaping the auto industry, the current vibes suggest it might be wise to proceed with caution. Despite its epic past, Tesla stock might not be a slam dunk right now, given the challenges and uncertainties in the mix.