To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is expected to release earnings on 24 Jan after the market closes (AMC). Market analysts have been slightly bearish for this upcoming quarter reporting, consensus EPS estimate is at $0.73 per share. This has been revised -1.4% lower from November 2023.

Compared to same period last year ($1.19) this was a decline of roughly 38%.

Consensus revenue estimate presently stands at $25.9 billion, this is an increase of nearly 7% higher than $24.3 billion same period last year. Revenue have cooled down after many years of rapid growth.

Key metric for Tesla EV production/delivery numbers stands at 484,000 EVs and produced nearly 495,000 throughout the period, representing a quarterly record. On an annual basis, Tesla produced over 1.85 million EVs throughout 2023 and delivered roughly 1.81 million, above the target of 1.8 million set previously.

If we could see Tesla beat EPS and revenue estimate, we could be seeing positive price effect

TSLA Upcoming Earnings Guidance

TSLA has issued earnings guidance for FY 2022.Revenue Growth is estimated at 50.0%.

Tesla (TSLA) Last Earnings Report

TSLA last reported earnings on 18 Oct 23 after the market close (AMC). TSLA shares declined -9.3% the day following the earnings announcement to close at 220.11. Following its earnings release, 97 days ago, TSLA stock has drifted -5.0% lower.

From the time it announced earnings, TSLA traded in a range between 194.07 and 265.13. The last price (209.14) is closer to the lower end of range.

The estimated implied straddle for upcoming earnings announcement is 7.0%. We could be looking at a positive price effect.

Tesla (TSLA) Post Earnings Announcement Drift

TSLA share price has drifted down -5.0% post earnings announcement. Using the last 12 quarters data, the average drift between earnings announcements is 12.5%. The current drift represents a negative -0.1 standard deviation move.

• Current post earnings announcement drift: -5.0%

• Historical average post earnings announcement drift: 12.5%

• Historical post earnings drift standard deviation move: ±41.3%

Tesla (TSLA) Post Earnings Movement

The options market overestimated TSLA stocks earnings move 50% of the time in the last 12 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±7.5% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 7.0% (in absolute terms).

Tesla (TSLA) Earnings Implied Volatility Crush

TSLA's last earnings implied volatility (IV30) going into earnings was 51.6. The last time TSLA released earnings, the implied volatility dropped to 48.1, resulting in an implied vol crush of 7%. 5 days after earnings, the 30 day IV was 51.5.

• Average Implied Volatility Crush For TSLA Earnings: 11%

• Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 1 Day Before Earnings: 61.4

• Average TSLA 30 Day IV for the Day of Earnings: 54.1

• Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 5 Days After Earnings: 55.4

Summary

Tesla would need to show that their price cut strategy can translate to more sales, as we can see that they have a pretty good production and deliveries numbers for Q4 2023.

But will these give a better revenue for Tesla? One more thing I would look out is Tesla operating expenses and how they are going to manage that?

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Tesla would produce a positive price effect after its earnings announcement.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.