To The Moon

2023: 40.98 => 47.59 = 16.12%

2022: 10.80 => 18.779 = 73%

2021: 19.52 => 34.58 = 77%

We have seen in the past 3 years and beyond that investors regretted selling too much in September due to irrationality, then it create a strong forward rally later due to FOMO of overselling. For example in 2023, the previous low in mid Sept(21 Sept) was followed by a strong rally to 47.59(12 Oct). This rally continues all the way to Nov and Dec.

 - 6 Sept 2021: Job report, Stocks have lost steam in recent days as investors assessed the rise in pandemic cases and a weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday.

- 12 Sept 2022: hotter-than-expected inflation data fueled bets on a jumbo hike by the Federal Reserve next week.

- 18 Sep 2023: Feds signal more hikes

Why is this self-fulfilling prophecy?

Looking back at the last 3 years of September stumps, the fear of pandemic cases causing a recession and the fear of jumbo hike both didn't fulfill its own prophecies. in the last year, where Feds signals more hikes, they didn't raise in the end.

All Sept from 2010 to 2020,

2010: +8.76%

2011: - 7.18%

2012: + 2.42%

2013: + 2.97%

2014: - 1.55%

2015: - 2.64%

2016: - 0.12%

2017: + 1.93%

2018: + 0.43%

2019: + 1.72%

4/10 chances (40%)

All September from 2020 to 2024,

2020: -3.92%

2021: -4.76%

2022: -9.34%

2023: -4.87%

4/4 chances (100%)

 - average drop (2010 to 2020): -2.8725%

- average drop (2020 to 2023): -6.70%

When we look at the historic data for September from 2010 to 2024, we can see that the odds of a drop in September went from less than 50% to 100% almost certainty that stocks will drop in September. 

Not commonly reported in the news is that the actual drop rate for September, we can see that the average drop rate has increased from -2.78 to -6.7%. Both qualitative and quantitive data have shown that the drop in September is becoming more of a self-fulfilling cycle rather than an actual economic-driven cycle. The continued narrative of the September have worsen and eroded traders' perspective of stock values in September.

Traders tend to follow seasonal and periodic trends. With the mass media and news outlet reporting September as a jinx month, the mass tend to oversell and overreact on small near-term data. They tend to exacerbate any negative news.

As long as traders keep getting sold on the idea that September is jinxed, they will continue to sell and be pessimistic on every slightl'y negative news and imagine the worst in September.

We expect to see growth and tech stocks to be strong in 2025. Given the fundamentals over years, there isn't any impairment of core growth or decline in business that justify the massive sell-off.

This month's lows would be a good entry for 2025 rally.[Miser]  [Miser]  For those still holding, don't make the mistake of irrational cyclical selling caused by speculations with traders overreacting. Unless the fundamentals of the business has changed, if not, we don't see how the value of the company has changed given its strong record of profitability and growth over past 10 years.