BlackRock (BLK) Implied Volatility Skew Slightly Bullish

$BlackRock(BLK)$ is scheduled to report its earnings on 11 October 2024 before the market open for the third quarter of 2024.

Investors would be paying close attention to the earnings performance of BlackRock in its upcoming release.

Market is expecting BlackRock to post earnings of $10.34 per share. This would mark a year-over-year decline of 6.78%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $5.04 billion, indicating a 11.56% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

BlackRock (BLK) Post Earnings Movement

The options prices predicted a± 3.3%post earnings move, compared to a -0.6%actual move.The options market overestimated BLK stocks earnings move 69%of the time in the last 13 quarters.

The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±3.3%on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 2.2%(in absolute terms).

BlackRock (BLK) Earnings Implied Volatility Crush

BLK's last earnings implied volatility (IV30) going into earnings was 21.6. The last time BLK released earnings, the implied volatility dropped to 17.5, resulting in an implied vol crush of 19%.

5 days after earnings, the 30 day IV was 17.4.

Average Implied Volatility Crush For BLK Earnings: 13%
Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 1 Day Before Earnings: 28.5
Average BLK 30 Day IV for the Day of Earnings: 25.0
Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 5 Days After Earnings: 24.4

BlackRock (BLK) Implied Volatility Skew Show Slightly Bullish

The implied volatility skew shows the market's bias for pricing in volatility risk to the option premium of downside puts and upside calls.

The implied volatility for downside puts is decreasing relative to upside calls, this suggests the market is pricing in a larger part to the upside move.

The Current Skew Indicator shows Slightly Bullish

BlackRock (BLK) Technical Analysis - MACD and KDJ

The general indicators are giving an uptrend signal for BLK ahead of its earnings and this coincides on what the option market feel about BLK price movement.

If we looked at the MACD, there is a pretty comfortable upside movement seen from BLK. and on weekly chart, the KDJ is also showing a convergence towards the bullish upside, so I would expect a bullish upside move post earnings for BLK.

Summary

I would think that BLK should be seeing more investors moving their monies for investment under BLK, as the interest rate cut happened, and there will be more benefit to move into investment rather than saving.

BLK asset under management have already increased to record high in the last earnings, I am expecting to see another new highs.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think BlackRock could see another new highs of assets under management.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.

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