To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

The US Market - Stocks sharply rebounded

• The U.S. stock market rebounded powerfully, lifted by robust earnings from major technology giants and renewed hopes that trade tensions could ease. Some investors are growing confident that the worst of the tariff-related uncertainty may be behind them.

• The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 6.7%, pushing the index back into positive territory for April. While the board market benchmark rallied 4.6% for the week.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction territory, falling from 50.3 to 49.0 in March, while the ISM Services PMI eased to 50.8 from February’s 53.5, signaling a cooling in service sector growth. Port and trucking activity data also pointed to a significant slowdown tied to tariff pressures.

• A weakness in the U.S. dollar early-week propelled gold prices to a record high of $3,500 per ounce. However, a rebound in the dollar later in the week pulled gold back to around $3,330.

Read more >>

The US Sectors & Stocks - TSLA surged after its worst earnings result

• The information technology sector led the market higher with a 7.7% weekly gain, followed closely by a 7% rise in the consumer cyclical sector, fueled by strong earnings reports and upbeat forecasts. In contrast, consumer staples lagged behind, reflecting growing concerns about their resilience in the current economic environment.

• Alphabet (GOOGL) topped Wall Street’s expectations for the first quarter, with shares rising 1.7% on Friday and over 7% for the week. Capital expenditures hit a record $17.2 billion, driven by ongoing investments in artificial intelligence. The company also announced a fresh $70 billion stock buyback, matching last year’s plan.

• Tesla (TSLA) reported a steep 40% decline in earnings per share and a 9% drop in revenue, both missing already lowered estimates. Auto gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, fell to a 13-year low. Tesla also pulled its 2025 delivery growth target. Yet, shares rallied 18% after Elon Musk said he would significantly reduce his involvement in DOGE projects starting in May.

• Intel (INTC) slumped 6.7% after posting a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss and issuing weak guidance. The chip giant attributed its cautious outlook to tariff-related uncertainty and plans to cut more than 20% of its workforce, mainly in middle management.

• GE Vernova (GEV) soared 15% after delivering strong earnings results. The energy company has nearly sold out gas turbine slots through 2028 and is now booking into 2030, reflecting robust demand despite macro and tariff pressures. However, GEV warned of $300 million to $400 million in additional costs tied to new tariffs.

• IBM (IBM) beat Q1 estimates and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance but flagged potential risks ahead, including federal contract cuts linked to new DOGE regulations. Shares declined following the report.

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) also beat earnings forecasts with a 4% sales increase, pushing its backlog to a record $173 billion—equivalent to more than two years of sales. The company maintained its 2025 outlook but noted it has yet to factor in potential impacts from evolving tariffs and new executive orders.

Hong Kong Market - HSI rebounded 2.74%

• Hong Kong stocks outpaced many global peers reflecting investor optimism amid easing trade tensions and supportive policy signals from Beijing. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 2.74% to register its best weekly performance since March 7.

• Beijing’s announcement to take proactive fiscal policies and loosen monetary policies also helped sentiment.

Singapore Market - STI rallied 2.78%

• Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI）experienced a strong week with a 2.78% gain, driven by investor optimism and a flight to safety amid global trade tensions.

• Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong told local media that the Asian trading hub is negotiating with the US over pharmaceutical exports as new levies loom over the drugs. Gan said the products makes up over 10% of the city-state’s exports to the US, the Straits Times reported Sunday.

• Singapore lenders are taking advantage of recent weakness in their share prices to purchase stock, making up the bulk of total corporate buybacks that are set to be the biggest in the city-state in four years. The value of buybacks by DBS Group, account for nearly half of all the stock repurchases in Singapore from April 1 to April 23, followed by United Overseas Bank Ltd. at 25% and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. at just over 8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Australian Market - ASX 200 rallied 1.9%

• The ASX 200 rose by 1.9%, closing at 7,968.20 points – leaving the 8000-point mark well within reach. The big Australian miners rose as iron ore jumped closer to $US100 a tonne, with BHP (ASX: BHP) shares rising 4.33% for the week.

• The big banks also rose, with Westpac (ASX: WBC) shares up 2.86%, ANZ (ASX: ANZ) shares up by 2.85% while Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) shares continued their strong run, up 2.15% to a record high.

The Week Ahead

Macro Factors - Key Data and Earnings Deluge

• With major indexes recovering nearly all of their post-tariff losses, investors brace for a pivotal week packed with economic reports and corporate earnings.

• Markets will closely watch Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Economists expect core PCE, which excludes food and energy, to rise 2.6% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in February. If forecasts hold, it would mark the lowest annual reading since March 2021, potentially easing some inflation concerns heightened by recent tariff moves.

• The April jobs report, due Friday, will offer fresh insights into the resilience of the labor market. Economists anticipate a gain of 133,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP growth, with consensus pointing to a modest 0.4% annualized rate — a sharp slowdown from the 2.4% pace in the fourth quarter.

Earnings

• Earnings are the highlight of the week ahead, with 180 S&P 500 companies set to report results. Heavy hitters Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are all on deck, alongside Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Chevron (CVX).

• Thus far, 73% of companies have beaten analysts' earnings expectations — slightly below the five-year average of 77%, according to FactSet. However, persistent macroeconomic and trade uncertainties are prompting companies to deliver cautious second-quarter guidance and, in many cases, to refrain from updating full-year projections.

• As a result, analysts have been aggressively cutting estimates for the rest of 2025. What was initially forecast to be the slowest earnings quarter of the year — the first quarter — may now end up as the high point. In contrast, projections for the second quarter have been slashed the most over the past three weeks, setting up Q2 to potentially mark the weakest stretch for corporate earnings this year.