To The Moon

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ is scheduled to release its Q1 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings on 30 May 2025, before the U.S. market opens.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Based on the data from Tipranks, the earnings per share (EPS) consensus estimate is expected to come in at $0.11 per share.

UP Fintech (TIGR) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Gained 6.15%

UP Fintech, Tiger Brokers had a positive earnings call on 18 March 2025 which saw its share price gained 6.15% since.

The earnings call presented strong financial performance with record revenue and profit growth, expansion in client accounts, and strategic advancements in cryptocurrency and AI technologies. However, the rise in operational expenses and tax rates were notable concerns. The positive aspects significantly outweigh the lowlights, indicating a successful quarter and year.

UP Fintech (TIGR) Guidance

In the recent earnings call for UP Fintech Holding Limited, the company reported substantial growth in both financial and operational metrics for Q4 and the full year of 2024. The total revenue for the fourth quarter reached $124.1 million, marking a 22.8% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 77.3% increase year-over-year. For the full year, revenue grew by 43.7% to $391.5 million. The company achieved record highs in both commission and interest income, with increases of 35.8% and 16.3% respectively compared to the previous quarter.

GAAP net income for the year was $60.7 million, with non-GAAP net income at $70.5 million, representing an 86.5% and 65% increase from 2023, respectively. The fourth quarter saw a significant rise in GAAP and non-GAAP net profit to $28.1 million and $30.5 million, reflecting a 58% and 51.7% increase quarter-over-quarter. The non-GAAP net profit margin improved from 20% in Q3 to 25% in Q4. The company added 59,200 newly funded accounts in the fourth quarter, a 17.2% increase from the prior quarter, and exceeded its annual target with 187,400 new funded accounts for the year. Total client assets grew by 2.4% quarter-over-quarter and 36.4% year-over-year, reaching $41.7 billion, with strong contributions from the Hong Kong market. Despite challenging market conditions, the company maintained robust growth, driven by strategic expansions and product enhancements.

Key Factors to Watch (and anticipated trends) for Q1 FY25

Total revenue for Q4 2024 reached $124.1 million, representing a 22.8% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 77.3% increase year-over-year. For the full year, revenue was $391.5 million, a 43.7% increase from 2023.

Trading Volume and Market Activity: As an online brokerage, TIGR's revenue is highly dependent on trading volume and overall market activity. YAX Hong Kong received licenses for Type 1 and Type 7 from the Hong Kong SFC, making it a licensed virtual asset trading platform.

What to watch: The number of trades executed, average daily trades, and total trading volume across the various markets they serve (U.S., HK, Singapore, Australia).

Anticipated trend: Q4 2024 saw a significant increase in trading volume (up to $198 billion), leading to a surge in commission revenue. Investors will be looking to see if this strong momentum continued into Q1 2025. A buoyant market environment, especially in the U.S. and potentially Hong Kong, could have positively impacted trading volumes.

Customer Acquisition and Retention (Newly Funded Accounts & Total Account Balance): Growth in their client base is crucial for long-term sustainability.

59,200 new funded accounts in Q4, a 17.2% increase from the previous quarter. Total funded accounts reached 1.09 million by the end of 2024, a 20.7% year-over-year increase.

What to watch: The number of newly funded accounts added in Q1, and the total number of customers with deposits. Also, the total account balance (client assets under management) and net asset inflows. The AI investment assistant was upgraded to TigerAI, integrating leading AI models to enhance investment decision-making capabilities.

Anticipated trend: In Q4 2024, Tiger Brokers added 59,200 customers with deposits, exceeding their yearly guidance. Total account balance reached a record $41.7 billion, driven by robust asset inflows. Investors will expect continued growth in these metrics, although Q1 might see some seasonality. The company has a strong focus on international expansion (Singapore, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand).

Revenue Mix (Commissions vs. Interest Income vs. Other Income): Understanding the drivers of their revenue.

What to watch: Breakdown of revenue into commission income, interest income (from margin financing), and other revenue streams (e.g., IPO subscription fees, wealth management, ESOP services).

Anticipated trend: Q4 2024 saw both commission and interest income hit record highs, with commission income more than doubling year-over-year due to increased trading volume. Investors will want to see if this trend holds. Interest income is also influenced by interest rates and margin loan utilization.

Profitability and Efficiency:

GAAP net income for 2024 was $60.7 million, up 86.5% from 2023, and non-GAAP net income was $70.5 million, up 65% from 2023. Q4 GAAP net profit was $28.1 million, a 58% increase quarter-over-quarter.

What to watch: Net income (GAAP and non-GAAP), net profit margin, and operating expenses.

Anticipated trend: Tiger Brokers showed a significant turnaround in profitability in Q4 and full-year 2024, moving from a net loss in Q4 2023 to a substantial net income. They reported record highs in both revenue and profit for Q4 and the full year 2024, with non-GAAP net profit margin increasing. Investors will be looking for sustained profitability and efficient cost management, particularly given their investments in marketing, technology, and global headcount.

Employee compensation and benefits increased by 41% year-over-year due to an increase in global headcount. Marketing expenses rose by 64% year-over-year.

Corporate Business Performance: This segment, which includes IPO underwriting and ESOP management, provides diversification.

What to watch: The number of IPOs underwritten and new ESOP clients added.

Anticipated trend: In Q4 2024, the corporate business performed well, underwriting 14 U.S. and Hong Kong IPOs. Continued activity in this segment will be a positive indicator.

Regulatory Environment: Given Tiger Brokers' operations in various jurisdictions, regulatory developments in China, Singapore, the U.S., and other markets can impact their operations and growth. Any commentary on regulatory compliance and new license acquisitions will be important.

The effective tax rate increased from 14% in Q3 to 25% in Q4, primarily due to increased profits from the U.S. market where the tax rate is higher.

UP Fintech (TIGR) Price Target

Based on 7 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Up Fintech Holding in the last 3 months. The average price target is $9.86 with a high forecast of $14.00 and a low forecast of $3.06. The average price target represents a 16.50% change from the last price of $8.46.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing strong positive momentum with TIGR, only one concern now is we are seeing it trading between the 26-EMA and 50-EMA, which could mean that bulls and bears are fighting for control, we might need to look at how TIGR could show reduction in its operational expenses, while maintaining the momentum from Q4 2024, with stronger customer acquisition, robust trading volumes, and sustained profitability.

We will need to see how TIGR could navigate the varying global market conditions as well.

Summary

I think investors will be looking for continued strong growth in customer acquisition, robust trading volumes, and sustained profitability. The ability to maintain momentum from Q4 2024, especially in the face of varying global market conditions, will be a key determinant of investor confidence.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think TIGR could continue its momentum from Q4 2024 with stronger customer acquisition and robust trading volumes, combined with reduced operational expenses to maybe give an earnings surprise.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.