To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

The US Market - Markets mixed amid Fed hold and rising geopolitical risks

• U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range over the shortened week. The Dow edged up 0.02%, supported by gains in Industrials, Transportation, and Utilities, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped slightly due to sector rotation and heightened geopolitical tensions.

• The Fed held rates steady and maintained its projection for two rate cuts this year. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized patience, balancing cooling labor data with potential tariff-driven inflation and rising energy prices.

• Over the weekend, the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, surprising investors expecting diplomatic efforts. The action escalated Middle East tensions, sending oil futures up 3.8% to nearly $77 per barrel.

• Bitcoin fell below $99,000, marking a one-month low as the crypto market responded quickly to geopolitical uncertainty.

• Citigroup analysts remain cautiously optimistic on equities, anticipating further upside for the S&P 500 if trade and growth fears ease. They forecast Brent crude to range between $70–80, with limited market disruption unless tensions intensify.

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The US Sectors & Stocks - Coinbase & Circle soared on Stablecoin Bill

• Energy was the only S&P 500 sector to post gains, lifted by a surge in crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions and supply concerns. Industrials underperformed, weighed by Boeing’s drop and a rotation out of defense stocks. Financials and Consumer Discretionary also lagged, pressured by falling yields and weaker consumer sentiment.

• Tesla (TSLA) confirmed that its Austin robotaxi service was set to launch Sunday, June 22, but said they vehicles will have a "safety monitor" in the passenger seat. Meanwhile, Tesla vehicle registrations in China in the second quarter continue to track slightly below the seasonally weak Q1. The stock price slightly lost by 1%.

• AMD (AMD) gained 8% after launching its MI350 AI accelerator chips, boosting investor optimism on its AI roadmap.

• Coinbase (COIN) surged 27% above $300 after launching “Coinbase Payments” and securing an EU crypto license. Momentum accelerated with the U.S. Senate’s passage of the GENIUS Act, providing regulatory clarity for stablecoins.

• Circle (CRCL) skyrocketed another 80% this week, with its USDC stablecoin gaining institutional adoption. The stock is now up 675% since its IPO.

• CoreWeave (CRWV) jumped nearly 25% on new AI-cloud tools. The Nvidia-backed company introduced three new AI cloud software products, showcasing remarkable growth and investor confidence.

• Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) faced pressure this week, each falling around 5% amid investor concerns over the Senate’s stablecoin legislation, which could allow big retailers to bypass traditional payment networks.

• Eli Lilly (LLY) agreed to buy Verve Therapeutics (VERV) for up to $1.3 billion on Tuesday, sending Verve stock soaring 79%, while LLY pulled back 6%. Verve is working on gene-editing treatments for cardiovascular disease. Its leading asset is a treatment for an inherited form of high cholesterol. The deal includes $1 billion up front and a contingent value right tied to dosing the first U.S. patient in a Phase 3 study of the same drug for atherosclerotic cardiovascular.

Hong Kong Market - HSI retreated by 1.5%

• The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile week, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) declining by 1.5%. The market was influenced by a mix of factors, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices. Southbound flows stayed steady with continued mainland buying of HK tech and defense-related stocks.

• Pierre Lau, China equity strategist at Citigroup said that greater geopolitical uncertainty could prompt US-based fund managers to direct more capital to mainland Chinese and Hong Kong assets.

Singapore Market - STI declined 0.7% amid mixed market performance

• The Straits Times Index (STI) experienced a 0.7% decline over the week, closing at 3883.43. The overall market sentiment was influenced by various corporate events and economic ties reaffirmed between Singapore and Indonesia. Investors kept one eye on US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict.

• Wilmar Intl (SGX:F34) dropped by 3.0% this week due to a significant corruption scandal in Indonesia, severely impacting its reputation and placing it in the country's "Corruption League Table."

• SIA (SGX: C61) reported a 3.1% year-on-year rise in passenger traffic in May 2025, with improvements in passenger load factor and cargo loads. However, the stock declined by 2.2% over the week.

• UOB (SGX: U11) signed an agreement with China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System to provide cross-border renminbi payment services, enhancing its service offerings. The stock saw a marginal decline of 0.2% over the week.

Australian Market - ASX retreated by 0.5%

• The Australian market marked the fourth day in a row the market had fallen, with a weekly fall of 0.5% taking the index to its lowest point since the beginning of June.

• Australia’s most valuable company Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) led the market lower, shedding 0.2% to $182.53. However, some defensive shares gaining support due to global uncertainty.

• Utilities and information technology companies were broadly firmer but weaker Chinese steel making led to a mixed performance by the big iron ore miners.

The Week Ahead

Macro Factors - PCE check

• Geopolitical tensions are expected to dominate headlines this week, with investors closely watching the fallout from recent U.S. actions in the Middle East. While the Iran-Israel conflict has yet to significantly shake markets, this weekend’s developments could be a turning point. As DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas noted, the biggest risk to markets remains a spike in oil prices, which could dampen economic growth.

• On the economic front, the spotlight is on the May PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, set for release on Friday. Economists forecast a 2.3% year-over-year increase, two-tenths of a percentage point more than in April. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise 2.6%, compared with 2.5% previously. The annual change in the core PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, is at its lowest level since March 2021.

• Updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, consumer confidence, and the final reading of first quarter economic growth are also expected. A two-day semiannual monetary policy testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also be in focus starting on Tuesday.

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