To The Moon

We have heard the news that $Uber(UBER)$ might be participating in the acquisition of Pony.ai. If Uber were to acquire $Pony AI Inc(PONY)$ , it could significantly enhance its position in the EV and autonomous mobility space, but with a twist.

Pony.ai is not just another EV company; it’s a leader in autonomous driving technology, with a focus on scalable Robotaxi deployment. Uber has already partnered with Pony.ai to integrate its autonomous vehicles into the Uber platform, starting in the Middle East and expanding globally. This partnership alone signals Uber’s intent to re-enter the autonomous race after previously selling its self-driving unit to Aurora.

Now, if Uber moves from partner to owner, especially by supporting Travis Kalanick’s reported bid to acquire Pony.ai’s U.S. arm, it could regain a strategic foothold in autonomous tech, which is increasingly intertwined with EVs. Pony.ai’s seventh-generation autonomous system is designed for mass production and cost-effective deployment, aligning well with Uber’s scale and logistics infrastructure.

I feel that it is a good time to consider Uber’s immediate investment appear against the backdrop of long-term disruptive threats like $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$’s robotaxi ambitions.

In this article I would like to discuss and share the breakdown of why Uber (UBER) might be seen as a "BUY" point despite the impending autonomous vehicle revolution, incorporating recent financial data and strategic moves.

Why Uber is a "BUY" Now Despite Robotaxi Threats

The market often prices in future threats, but it also heavily weighs current performance, strategic positioning, and the ability of a company to adapt. Here is why Uber is currently viewed favorably by many analysts and investors.

Strong Current Financial Performance and Path to Profitability

Consistent Profitability: After years of significant losses, Uber has demonstrated a clear path to profitability. In Q1 2025, Uber reported a net income of $1.8 billion (compared to a loss in Q1 2024), income from operations of $1.2 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion (up 35% year-over-year). This consistent profitability and margin expansion are crucial for investor confidence.

Robust Free Cash Flow: Uber generated $2.3 billion in free cash flow in Q1 2025, up 66% year-over-year. Strong cash generation gives the company flexibility for investments, debt reduction, and potential shareholder returns (though focused on growth currently).

UBER free cash flow for Q1 25 is 2.25 B USD. For 2024, UBER free cash flow was 6.89 B USD and operating cash flow was 7.14 B USD.

Solid Growth in Core Businesses: Gross Bookings grew 14% year-over-year (18% constant currency) to $42.8 billion in Q1 2025. Both Mobility (ridesharing) and Delivery (Uber Eats) segments are seeing healthy growth (Mobility Gross Bookings up 13% YoY, Delivery up 15% YoY). This sustained demand for its services underpins its current valuation.

Positive Q2 2025 Outlook: Uber anticipates Q2 2025 Gross Bookings between $45.75 billion to $47.25 billion (16-20% YoY growth) and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.02 billion to $2.12 billion (29-35% YoY growth). This forward guidance indicates continued momentum.

Strategic Positioning for the Autonomous Future (Not Direct Competition with Tesla)

Platform, Not Manufacturer: This is the most critical distinction. Uber's long-term strategy isn't to build its own robotaxis (they sold their ATG unit to Aurora). Instead, Uber aims to be the "Visa/Mastercard of autonomy." They want to be the platform through which all autonomous vehicle fleets operate.

Extensive Partnerships: Uber is actively forging partnerships with leading autonomous vehicle (AV) developers globally. Recent announcements include:

WeRide: Expanded partnership to bring autonomous vehicles to 15 more cities globally over the next five years, outside the US and China, with Uber handling fleet operations.

May Mobility: Launching AVs on the Uber platform in Arlington, Texas, by end of 2025, with plans for thousands of AVs over the next few years.

Volkswagen, Wayve, Pony.AI: Other strategic alliances to integrate self-driving cars into their services.

Hybrid Marketplace Model: Uber envisions a "hybrid marketplace" where human drivers and robotaxis coexist and complement each other. For instance, in areas where robotaxis operate, if wait times are long or the trip goes outside the AV's operational design domain (e.g., specific weather, complex pick-up spots), Uber can seamlessly dispatch a human driver. This flexibility is a significant competitive advantage as robotaxi fleets are still limited in scale and geographical coverage.

Demand Generation and Network Effect: Uber has a massive existing user base (170 million Monthly Active Platform Consumers in Q1 2025) and a sophisticated demand-supply matching algorithm. Even if Tesla or others develop superior AV tech, they still need to acquire customers at scale and efficiently manage fleets – something Uber already excels at. Uber's network effect (more riders attract more drivers/vehicles, which attracts more riders) is a powerful moat.

Operational Expertise: Managing a global ride-hailing and delivery network involves immense logistical complexity, local regulatory navigation, customer support, and fleet management. Uber has built this operational expertise over more than a decade, which is not easily replicated by a pure AV manufacturer.

Analyst Confidence and Market Sentiment

Overwhelmingly Positive Ratings: Analysts are largely bullish on UBER. Recent ratings from June 2025 show a consensus "Strong Buy", with an average price target of around $96.00 to $100.00, suggesting significant upside from current levels (around $83-$84).

Growth Story Beyond Rides: Investors are increasingly recognizing Uber's diversification beyond just mobility, particularly the growth and improving profitability of its Delivery segment. This broadens its revenue streams and reduces reliance on a single segment.

The "Long-Term" Threat isn't an "Immediate" Threat

Slow Rollout of True Robotaxis: While Tesla and others are making strides, the widespread, fully autonomous, un-geofenced robotaxi service is still years, if not a decade or more, away from truly replacing human drivers at scale across all geographies and conditions. Regulatory hurdles, public trust, and the sheer cost of scaling autonomous fleets are significant barriers.

Tesla's Focus: Tesla's primary focus is on selling cars and leveraging its FSD technology. It's not clear that Tesla aims to be a global ride-hailing operator in the same vein as Uber, with all the associated operational complexities, driver network management (even if eventually autonomous), and local market nuances. They may choose to license their tech or operate in niche areas.

Uber Recent Analysis Suggest Buy Point

However, other recent analysis has been more positive, and Uber passed a test of its 50-day moving average on Wednesday.

On 10 June, Stifel started coverage on the "super app" with a buy rating and 100 price target, predicting ultimate success for Uber's delivery business and highlighting the long runway for its advertising opportunity.

RBC Capital, with a 94 price target for Uber stock, said it would get more aggressive if there is a Tesla-fueled sell-off. RBC said it sees Uber's autonomous positioning as a positive, given its numerous partnerships.

Uber rose 0.4% to 83.78 in Friday stock market action. A move past Wednesday's intraday peak of 86.48 would see Uber break above the trendline sloping down from its 93.60 all-time high touched on May 20. That could provide an early entry point for aggressive investors near 87, the prior buy point that Uber first cleared on May 12.

Uber now has a new flat base forged around the top of a longer consolidation. The traditional buy point is 93.60, according to a weekly MarketSurge chart. Uber has a modest 21-day average true range of 2.8%.

Acquisition Of Pony.ai By Uber

The acquisition of Pony.ai by Uber, or even a deeper strategic partnership, could significantly boost Uber's position in the autonomous driving space, which in turn has strong implications for the EV space. Here's why:

Bolstering Autonomous Driving Capabilities

Advanced Technology: Pony.ai is a leading player in autonomous driving technology, particularly in robotaxi and robotruck solutions. They have accumulated millions of kilometers in autonomous road testing and developed a "Virtual Driver" technology. Acquiring their US subsidiary, as recent reports suggest former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick is attempting with Uber's potential backing, would give Uber direct access to this advanced technology.

Faster Deployment of Robotaxis: Uber is already partnering with Pony.ai to deploy robotaxis on its platform, starting in the Middle East. A deeper integration through acquisition could accelerate this deployment globally, allowing Uber to rapidly expand its driverless ride-hailing services.

Reduced Reliance on Human Drivers: The ultimate goal of autonomous driving for ride-hailing companies like Uber is to reduce operational costs by eventually replacing human drivers. Pony.ai's proven technology and commercialization efforts would significantly advance Uber's progress towards this goal.

Competitive Edge: Uber is actively pursuing partnerships with various autonomous vehicle companies (Waymo, Wayve, WeRide, Momenta, etc.) to integrate their technology. Acquiring a key player like Pony.ai would give Uber a stronger, more direct control over the technology and potentially a competitive advantage over rivals who rely solely on partnerships.

Impact on the EV Space

Synergy with Electrification Goals: Autonomous vehicles are overwhelmingly electric. By accelerating its autonomous driving capabilities through Pony.ai, Uber would inherently be pushing its fleet towards electrification. This aligns perfectly with Uber's ambitious goal of achieving 100% zero-emission rides in major markets by 2030 and its global goal of becoming a zero-emissions mobility platform by 2040.

Cost Efficiency for EVs: As autonomous technology matures, the cost of operating an EV robotaxi is expected to be significantly lower than a human-driven electric vehicle. This cost efficiency will incentivize even greater adoption of EVs within Uber's network.

Infrastructure Development: The widespread deployment of robotaxis (which are EVs) would necessitate and drive the development of EV charging infrastructure. Uber is already investing in this, but a massive autonomous EV fleet would put further pressure and justification for expanding charging networks, including fast-charging solutions.

Data and Optimization: Operating a large fleet of autonomous EVs would provide Uber with invaluable data on EV performance, charging patterns, and route optimization. This data can be leveraged to further improve EV efficiency and the overall electric mobility ecosystem.

Technical Analysis - Uber Showing Long Term Uptrend Continual On Weekly Timeframe

As there was some news coming out for Uber as they are possibly looking to acquire the American arm of Pony.ai (the Chinese um autonomous vehicle company). And we also know that they have a partnership with them in the Middle East, this has caused Uber share price to trend 2.44% higher.

That is a new all-time highs on Uber today 94, which is believe the next stop, will be aiming for the $100 target.

The bulls are going for the engulfing move, and they still have to reset the daily uptrend eventually, so any back tests down here of 88. I would rather looked at the weekly time frame which was the cleanest setup.

We can see that there was a bull flag right directly into the exact range, though the bulls took a while to break out from the breakout the retest

There was a few weeks to position right here, so what could happen next would be take investors into the take-profit territory. I think the number one option would be the previous highs, and then second option would be around the $100 mark.

If you have missed the previous entry level, I would think for a swing trade the next better position to look at would be around the $70 range. I think we need to monitor on how the acquisition deal talks progress and see if there is any surprise that really could benefit Uber.

Summary

Uber is being bought because it is a profitable, growing, and cash-generating platform that is strategically positioning itself to integrate autonomous vehicles rather than be displaced by them. The "threat" from Tesla's robotaxis is seen more as an evolution that Uber aims to leverage, rather than a direct existential crisis, at least for the foreseeable future.

While the acquisition of Pony.ai directly boosts Uber's position in autonomous driving, the strong link between autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles means it would indirectly and significantly enhance Uber's standing in the EV space. By moving closer to a fully autonomous fleet, Uber is simultaneously accelerating its transition to an all-electric future and positioning itself at the forefront of sustainable and efficient urban mobility.

From the TA (Technical Analysis), it looks like we might continue to see uptrend continuation from the weekly timeframe, with the news of potential Pony.ai acquisition, this could fuel investors sentiment and confidence in Uber.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Uber could continue to drive the uptrend continuation with the acquisition potential with its strong fundamental (e.g. free cash flow).

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.