To The Moon

The new U.S.–Vietnam trade deal is already shaking up the retail landscape, Lawrence. With President Trump announcing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports down from the threatened 46% retailers with deep manufacturing ties to Vietnam just dodged a bullet. Nike popped 4% on the news, and it was not alone.

In this article, I would be discussing on the breakdown of retail stocks with upside potential due to this deal and the technical analysis which we will analyse together to find potential trade and entry points.

Retailers with Vietnam Exposure & Momentum

These companies benefit not just from tariff relief but also from supply chain stability, which helps protect margins and pricing power. That is especially important in a high-volatility macro backdrop.

What to Watch Next

• Transshipment Rules: A 40% tariff still applies to goods routed through Vietnam from other countries (like China), so companies with complex supply chains may need to adapt quickly.

• Consumer Sentiment: If inflation expectations ease and discretionary spending rebounds, apparel and home goods retailers could see tailwinds.

• Earnings Season: Watch for guidance revisions and many retailers had priced in worst-case tariff scenarios.

In the next section, I will be doing a break down of Wayfair (W) from both a valuation and technical lens as of early July 2025 especially since it is flashing signs of a breakout.

Technical Setup: Breakout in Motion?

Interpretation: $Wayfair(W)$ is breaking out above key moving averages with strong volume and momentum. The RSI suggests it’s overbought, but that’s typical in early breakout phases. The high short interest (22M shares) could fuel a short squeeze if momentum continues.

Wayfair (W) Valuation Metrics (as of July 3, 2025)

Valuation Takeaway: While earnings are still catching up, Wayfair’s cash flow turnaround and low EV/sales suggest asymmetric upside especially if margins continue to improve post-tariff clarity.

What Makes It Interesting Now?

• Tariff Relief: Vietnam exposure + reduced tariffs = margin tailwind

• Short Squeeze Setup: High short interest + breakout = explosive potential

• Cash Flow Inflection: FCF positive after years of burn

• Sector Rotation: Discretionary retail catching a bid post-deal

In this section I will be sharing the side-by-side of Wayfair with $RH(RH)$ and $On Holding AG(ONON)$ , it will be broken down into two parts: a side-by-side valuation and technical comparison of Wayfair, RH, and On Holding, followed by a Fibonacci-based support/resistance map for Wayfair.

Valuation & Technical Comparison (as of early July 2025)

Takeaway:

• Wayfair: Strong breakout with short squeeze potential and improving FCF.

• RH: Undervalued on PEG, but negative FCF and high short interest = high risk/reward.

• On Holding: Premium valuation, but strong brand momentum and cleaner balance sheet.

Wayfair: Fibonacci & Trendline Mapping

• Price as of July 3, 2025: $56.79

• Recent Swing Low: $38.20

• Recent Swing High: $57.40

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Trendline & Entry/Exit Zones

• Uptrend Support: Rising trendline from $38.20 to $56.79—currently holding.

• Breakout Confirmation: Above $57.40 with volume = bullish continuation.

• Entry Zone: $49.50–$52.80 (on pullback to 38.2–23.6% Fib)

• Exit Target 1: $61.00 (measured move from breakout)

• Exit Target 2: $67.00 (projected from trend channel extension)

RH (Restoration Hardware): Fibonacci & Trendline Map

• Price as of July 3, 2025: $207.04

• Swing Low: $162.80

• Swing High: $212.60

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Setup Insight: RH is testing the $212 resistance zone. A pullback to $192–$187 could offer a high-reward entry if the broader discretionary rally holds. Watch for volume confirmation and MACD crossover near the 38.2% level.

On Holding (ONON): Fibonacci & Trendline Map

Price as of July 3, 2025: $41.12 Swing Low: $31.80 Swing High: $42.30

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Setup Insight: ONON is hovering just below its recent high. A pullback to the $38–$36 zone could offer a low-risk re-entry if momentum resumes. RSI is cooling from 65+, so a consolidation before breakout continuation is likely.

Strategic Takeaways

• RH offers deeper retracement potential with a wider asymmetric range—ideal for a value-driven rebound play.

• ONON is more momentum-sensitive, with tighter Fib zones and cleaner trendline support—better suited for breakout traders.

In this section, we will be looking at the interpretation as we overlay MACD and ADX signals onto the Fibonacci retracement maps for RH and On Holding (ONON) to refine the asymmetric setups we spotted earlier.

RH (Restoration Hardware)

• Price: $207.04

• Fibonacci Zone: $182.50–$200.90 (pullback support)

• MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed mid-June; histogram expanding

• ADX: 26.4 → Trend strength building (above 25 = valid trend)

Interpretation: RH is in a confirmed uptrend with MACD momentum and ADX strength aligning. A pullback to the $192–$187 zone (38.2–50% Fib) could offer a high-reward entry if MACD remains positive and ADX holds above 25. Watch for MACD histogram contraction as a caution flag.

On Holding (ONON)

• Price: $41.12

• Fibonacci Zone: $36.10–$39.80 (pullback support)

• MACD: Bullish, but flattening—momentum slowing

• ADX: 18.7 → Weak trend (below 20 = consolidation likely)

Interpretation: ONON is losing momentum despite holding near highs. MACD is still positive but fading, and ADX suggests a range-bound phase. A pullback to the $38–$36 zone could be attractive, but only if MACD reaccelerates or ADX climbs above 20. Otherwise, patience may pay off.

Strategic Angle

• RH: Stronger asymmetric setup now, with trend confirmation and room to run if it holds above $187.

• ONON: More of a wait-and-see—ideal for breakout traders if momentum reignites.

Potential Price Targets Using Fibonacci Extensions

In this section, I would be sharing how we can project Fibonacci extension-based price targets for Wayfair (W), RH, and On Holding (ONON) using their recent swing highs and lows.

These levels help estimate where price might extend after a breakout, ideal for asymmetric setups like the ones we have been tracking.

Wayfair (W)

• Swing Low: $38.20

• Swing High: $57.40

• Current Price: $56.79

If momentum holds and short interest unwinds, $66–$71 could be realistic in the next leg up. From the technical, we are seeing very strong positive momentum building up so if the short interest unwinds, we could be seeing the bulls continue to push for a daily uptrend continuation, and hence $66–$71 could be realistic in the next leg up.

RH (Restoration Hardware)

• Swing Low: $162.80

• Swing High: $212.60

• Current Price: $207.04

Given RH’s improving trend strength (ADX > 25), $237–$256 is a reasonable upside band. From the technical, the bulls have taken control on the daily trend at 50-day period, so we need the trend strength to continue as it is currently negative based on the RSI momentum, if the bulls is able to continue to push for a daily uptrend, then we might see that RH to try for $237–$256 as an upside band is pretty possible.

On Holding (ONON)

• Swing Low: $31.80

• Swing High: $42.30

• Current Price: $41.12

ONON’s momentum is cooling, so a breakout above $42.30 with volume would be key to unlock these targets. From the technical, the bulls have regained control of the daily uptrend, and we are seeing that though RSI momentum is cooling, the bulls would attempt for a daily uptrend continuation which could push for a breakout above $42.30.

Summary

Recent trade negotiations between the US and Vietnam have resulted in a new tariff structure, where Vietnamese goods entering the US will face a 20% tariff, and transshipped goods a 40% tariff, a reduction from the previously threatened 46%. This deal aims to reduce supply chain disruption for US retailers heavily reliant on Vietnamese manufacturing.

Nike, which sources a significant portion of its footwear from Vietnam, initially saw its stock climb following the announcement, as the lower tariffs provide a cushion against higher costs. However, some reports indicate that the imposition of any new tariffs, even if lower than initially feared, has caused a decline in Nike shares due to concerns over supply chain cost implications and potential margin compression. The market's reaction suggests that while the worst-case scenario was avoided, there are still cost adjustments to be factored in.

Looking ahead, other retail stocks with potential include those that have diversified supply chains or strong brand pricing power to absorb potential cost increases. Companies like $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$, $Under Armour(UA)$ and Best Buy also source from Vietnam and could see similar impacts to Nike. Retailers like Walmart and Costco Wholesale might be more resilient due to their diversified product offerings (including necessities like groceries) and ability to buy in bulk. Furthermore, companies with strong e-commerce platforms or a focus on higher-value products might be better positioned to navigate evolving trade dynamics.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think these retails stocks are worth looking into using the technical indicators as well as some of the fundamental datas.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.