Weekly: Will Nvidia’s earnings revive the AI trade? Jobs report returns
Last Week's Recap
1. U.S. Market - Shutdown Relief vs. AI Hangover
Indexes: Equities swung sharply through the week. Early optimism over the government reopening lifted the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ to record highs, but gains faded as growth and AI stocks sold off on tempered rate-cut expectations. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ eked out gains, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed lower.
Shutdown Relief: The Senate passed a stopgap funding bill extending federal spending through Jan 30 2026, ending the the longest-ever shutdown. Stocks rallied briefly on the news before profit-taking set in.
Fed Tone: Officials pushed back on aggressive easing bets. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said a December rate cut is “far from assured.” Futures now price the next cut at roughly 50–50 odds.
AI / Tech Fatigue: A mid-week AI-tech unwind saw traders question stretched valuations and capex cycles. Strategists still frame AI as a secular growth theme, though near-term positioning looks overextended.
2. U.S. Sectors & Stocks — Tech Selloff Deepens, Value Rotation
Sectors: Investors rotated from high-multiple AI growth into defensive and value areas. Health Care (+4.5%) led on strong earnings and renewed M&A chatter; Energy (+2.6%) followed as oil rose on geopolitical risk and demand hopes. Cyclicals and small-caps lagged.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Started the week strong on shutdown-relief, then sold off sharply mid-week as investors questioned whether AI circular investment and valuations had run too far ahead of fundamentals. Traders de-risked ahead of this week’s earnings.
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$: Berkshire Hathaway’s end-of-Q3 equity portfolio showed more than 17.8 million Class A shares of Alphabet. They are currently valued at $4.9 billion, making them the biggest Q3 addition.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : Dropped 8% Thursday, closing below $400 for the first time since September amid the broader tech selloff.
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ : Sank 26% after cutting its full-year outlook despite 133% revenue growth and a smaller-than-expected Q3 loss, citing capacity delays at a vendor.
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ : Plunged 25% following a Q3 earnings and revenue miss plus a $25 M equity raise to fund data-center expansion.
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : Jumped after Analyst Day raised long-term targets and guided for >35% CAGR from AI + Data Center. Still, chip stocks retreated later as AI euphoria cooled.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : Reported strong October sales and lifted full-year guidance, signaling robust AI chip demand, but shares ended lower with the tech pullback.
$Cisco(CSCO)$ : Delivered a beat-and-raise quarter with $1.3 B AI infrastructure orders and a bullish multi-year outlook. Shares surged ~10%.
$Walt Disney(DIS)$ : Fell 5% after mixed results — strength in streaming and parks offset by weakness in linear TV.
$Sea Ltd(SE)$ : Dropped 6% after earnings missed despite a revenue beat.
$Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ : Slumped 13% on a wider-than-expected loss but remains up 360% YTD.
$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ : Tumbled 25% as Q3 revenue fell 18% YoY to $1.95 M, missing expectations.
$Applied Materials(AMAT)$ : Reported strong Q4 financial results. The company raised its Q1 revenue guidance, indicating robust demand for AI chip manufacturing equipment.
$Occidental(OXY)$ : Increase 3.5% following better-than-expected Q3 earnings. The company's performance was driven by higher production and the acquisition of CrownRock.
3. Hong Kong Market - HSI Rebounded 1.3%
$HSI(HSI)$ : Climbed 1.3% for the week, supported by consumer names. The Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) fell 2.8%, pressured by stretched valuations in AI-related stocks.
$TENCENT(00700)$ : Reported strong Q3 results with adjusted EPS up 21.6% YoY and revenue up 17.4% YoY to $27.1B, the fastest growth since 2021. Management highlighted improving ad monetization and efficiency gains from AI-driven targeting tools.
$BILIBILI-W(09626)$ : Posted 203% EPS growth, though revenue rose only 4% as gaming slowed after last year’s blockbuster release. Engagement remained healthy with DAUs +9% and paying users +17%.
$JD-SW(09618)$ : Dropped 5.7% as Q3 profit slumped 58% despite 13% revenue growth, pressured by higher spending in grocery and new initiatives. Shares extended losses below long-term support.
$XPENG-W(09868)$ : Jumped 11.6% after unveiling its humanoid robot and benefiting from improved sentiment across China EV names.
4. Singapore Market - STI +1.2% on Corporate Strength
$Solidion Technology Inc.(STI)$ : Gained 1.2% to 4,546.07, supported by upbeat earnings across banks and select corporates.
$Food Empire(F03.SI)$ (F03 SG): Rallied sharply on strong Q3 results driven by continued momentum in its European markets.
$OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ (S68 SG): Surged 4.2% as Q3 profit topped expectations, supported by record noninterest income and stronger wealth-management flows. Analysts raised ratings following the beat.
$SingPost(S08.SI)$ (S08 SG): Fell 1.2% after first-half net profit declined 17.1% YoY, weighed by softer e-commerce volumes and the absence of one-off gains.
$Singtel(Z74.SI)$ (Z74 SG): Rose 5% after underlying profit climbed 14%, buoyed by Optus and contributions from regional associates.
5. Australian Market - ASX 200 Erases Four Months of Gains
$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ : Dropped 1.5%, mirroring Wall Street’s pullback, wiping out four months of gains. A stronger-than-expected jobs report dampened hopes for near-term RBA easing.
Banks: Heavy selling across the majors; $COMMONWEALTH BANK AUST(CBAPI.AU)$ (CBA) sank 11%, its steepest weekly decline in two years, with peers following lower.
Tech & Miners: Technology names retreated alongside global de-risking. Mining stocks also weakened amid growth concerns and shifting global portfolios.
The Week Ahead
1. Macro Factors - $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ & the Jobs Report in Focus
Two Key catalysts: This week, NVIDIA’s earnings and the long-delayed September jobs report—both poised to shape sentiment into year-end.
Key Data Watch: On Thursday, the government will release the September employment report, the first official labor update since the shutdown. FOMC minutes from the October meeting will follow on Wednesday at 2 p.m., giving investors more color on policymakers’ thinking.
Analysts Views: Strategists warn that tech—now heavily overweight across major indexes—faces increased valuation risk. Many are advising clients to rotate into more reasonably priced sectors as year-end approaches.
AI Skepticism rises: “Big Short” investor Michael Burry accused several major U.S. tech firms of using aggressive accounting to inflate earnings tied to AI momentum, adding fuel to concerns about the durability of the trade.
2. Earnings
Overview: Nvidia (NVDA) will reports Wednesday after the close, with $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ following Thursday morning—offering read-outs on both the AI cycle and U.S. consumer health.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : The AI darling —briefly a $5 trillion company last month—now carries an 8% weighting in the S&P 500. Shares are +39% YTD, but –8% in November as AI enthusiasm cools. Wall Street expects another blockbuster quarter. A surge in partnerships, cloud buildouts, and hyperscaler contracts has kept analyst estimates elevated. But the recent volatility reflects a growing debate over whether AI demand is peaking or simply normalizing.
Earnings season scorecard: With 90%+ of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies reported, Q3 earnings are on track for 13.1% YoY growth. If sustained, this would mark the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit expansion, per FactSet.
For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!
Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.
Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD 5000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.
Other helpful links:
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
