To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

1. US Market-Inches higher with confidence uptick and Fed cut expect

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ within 1% of record highs set in late October and mid-November, respectively. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finished less than 2% below its historic peak.

• Labor market weakens: ADP shows 32K job losses in Nov, reversing Oct's 47K gain; official report delayed to Dec 16.

• Consumer confidence rises: Modest uptick in sentiment; core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8% in Sep (from 2.9%).

• Q3 earnings strong: S&P 500 up 13.4% QoQ—fourth consecutive double-digit quarter—led by tech's 29% gain.

• Treasury yields jump: 10-year at 4.14%; 30-year at 4.79% (three-month high).

• Fed cut likely: Markets price 87% probability of 25bp rate cut at Dec 10 meeting.

2. The US Sectors & Stocks -Tech & AI Stocks Lead Amid Strong Earnings

Sector: Tech leads,Communication services +36%, IT +26% YTD despite mega-cap volatility. AI/semis active—Nvidia invests in Synopsys, Amazon launches new chips.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ experienced a minor decline of 1.8% amid reports of lowered AI software sales targets. The stock faced pressure from market concerns over AI product adoption.

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rose by 5.77% driven by strong sales in China and positive investor sentiment towards its robotics advancements.

• $Adobe(ADBE)$ gained 8.15% ahead of its upcoming earnings report, driven by positive market sentiment towards its AI products.

• $Oracle(ORCL)$ gained 7.74% as the company forecasted significant revenue growth driven by AI demand.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ saw a modest gain of 0.62% as analysts raised price targets, reflecting confidence in its AI chip TPU's revenue potential.

• $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ rose by 13.03% after raising its full-year guidance and reporting strong AI product traction. The stock's performance was driven by positive earnings results and market optimism.

• $UiPath(PATH)$ surged nearly 35% after reporting a 16% year-over-year revenue increase and beating earnings estimates. The stock's strong performance was driven by positive financial results and optimistic guidance for the next quarter.

• $Mobilicom Limited(MOB)$ surged 23.24% after reporting strong Q3 earnings and raising its full-year guidance.

• $Rubrik Inc.(RBRK)$ jumped 24.45% following its Q3 earnings beat and raised revenue guidance.

• $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ increased by 10.65% following its acquisition of Celestial AI and strong Q3 revenue growth.

• $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ rose by 4.76% after reporting record high quarterly revenue and profit from its strong financial performance and growth in global client assets.

• $Boeing(BA)$ surged 6.83% driven by positive delivery forecasts and market optimism.

3.Hong Kong Market - HSI Gains on Tech, Insurance Strength

$HSI(HSI)$ rose by 0.88% over the week, closing at 26,085.08. The index's performance was buoyed by strong gains in the technology and insurance sectors, despite EV sector under pressure.

• $NIO-SW(09866)$ saw a decline of 7.58%. Despite a significant increase in vehicle deliveries in November, the stock was impacted by investor concerns over short-term EV growth momentum.

• $LEAPMOTOR(09863)$ experienced a slight decrease of 0.28% over the week. The company's strong November delivery numbers were overshadowed by the sustainability of its growth trajectory amid increasing competition in the EV sector.

• $GIANT BIOGENE(02367)$ rose by 5.85%. The company announced a significant share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth prospects and aiming to enhance shareholder value.

• $SERES(09927)$ saw a decrease of 0.35%. Despite being added to the Southbound Stock Connect list, the stock faced pressure from the overall decline in the EV sector, which weighed on investor sentiment.

4. Singapore Market - STI Edges Up in Mixed Trading

$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ increased 0.16% and closed at 4531.36, The market saw significant fluctuations with Airposts stocks.

December Outlook：December historically STI's 3rd best month (+1.3% avg since 2000), driven by dividend plays & window dressing

• $Airports of Thailand NVDR(TATD.SI)$ soared 21% and $DFIRG USD(D01.SI)$ rose 19%, while $Bumitama Agri(P8Z.SI)$ fell 11%.

• $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ saw a rise of 2.3%, driven by strong third-quarter results and optimism in its wealth management division, reaching a new all-time high.

• $UOB(U11.SI)$ increased by 1.6%, reflecting positive investor confidence in the bank's performance and the broader financial sector.

• $Singtel(Z74.SI)$ fell by 3.2%, amidst mixed market sentiment and broader declines in major companies on the Singapore Exchange.

• $Wilmar Intl(F34.SI)$ declined by 5.6%, influenced by the announcement of Chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong stepping down from key roles, indicating a restructuring in the company's governance.

5. Australian Market - XJO Rises 0.2% as Utilities Outperform

$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ : The Australian stock market slightly increase by 0.24% and cloesed at 8634.6 over last week. The market showed resilience despite global economic uncertainties and fluctuating commodity prices.

Sector: The best performed sector is Utilities, added 2.1% due to rate-sensitive rally)and the worst sector is energy, declined 1.5% as oil price weakness.

December Outlook: December is historically ASX's strongest month, with avg. gains of +2.1% since 2000, Santa Rally typically kicks in after Dec 15, supported by thin trading and fund rebalancing. RBA Decision (Dec 10): 85% chance of hold at 4.35%; focus on 2025 rate cut language. Sector Likely Leaders: Banks (CBA, WBC) – rate cut hope + yield appeal; REITs (SCG, GPT) – bond proxy trade.

• $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ gained 4.68% weekly. China stimulus whispers + iron ore resilience. JPMorgan upgraded RIO to "Overweight," citing its 7.2% dividend yield as a safe harbor in volatile markets.

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ rose 7.61% last week. Copper prices surged +5.3% to $4.45/lb, BHP also announced a $2B share buyback last Tuesday, providing direct price support.

• $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ rose 1.90%. Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a Feb 2025 rate cut, steepening the yield curve—banks' profit sweet spot.

• $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ rose 1.33%. Westpac's $400M annual cost-save easing margin pressure fears. Investors also rotated into "defensive yield" ahead of the Fed meeting.

• $FORTESCUE LTD(FMG.AU)$ rose 3.27%. FMG's Iron Bridge magnetite mine shipped its first cargo—a key de-risking milestone. Also, FMG's low-grade ore discount narrowed as Chinese steel mills restocked ahead of Lunar New Year.

• $Afterpay Touch(APT.AU)$ +5.3%. APT's formal return to the ASX 200 on Friday (after Block's listing) forced index-tracking funds to buy $180M worth of shares.

• $PLS Group Ltd(PLS.AU)$ +4.1%. PLS led lithium hopes after Albemarle cut FY25 output guidance by 10%, signaling a potential price floor. China's CATL reportedly restocked spodumene, lifting spot prices +7%.

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors -Dec 9-10 Fed Meeting and Potential Santa Rally

Key Event: Fed policy decision Wednesday - 87% probability of 25bp cut (CME FedWatch)

Market Movers:

• 2026 Rate Projections: Dot plot revision is the real catalyst

• Economic Data: JOLTS job openings (Tue), Initial jobless claims (Thu)

• Volatility Alert: Options markets pricing major S&P 500 swing Wednesday

The Big Picture:

• Santa Claus rally depends on Powell's tone and 2026 guidance

• Fed Chair Speculation: Kevin Hassett's potential dovish appointment could extend cut expectations

• Caution: S&P 500 rebound is fragile - this meeting sets the tone for year-end

Bottom Line: Rate cut is priced in; reaction to 2026 forecasts will drive markets

2. Earnings Spotlight: Tech Trio, Costco, Lululemon

Monday 9 Dec

• $GameStop(GME)$ (After-hours): Meme stock volatility alert

• $Arqit Quantum Inc.(ARQQ)$ (Pre-market): Quantum computing play

Tuesday 10 Dec

• $Broadcom(AVGO)$ / $Adobe(ADBE)$ / $Oracle(ORCL)$ (After-hours): BIG TECH Trio - AI infra, software, cloud all reporting

• $Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$ (Pre-market): E-commerce sentiment check

Wednesday 11 Dec

• $Costco(COST)$ (After-hours): Consumer staple juggernaut - spending health barometer

• $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$ (Pre-market): Cybersecurity watch

Thursday 12 Dec

• $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ (After-hours): Premium retail & consumer discretionary pulse

• $AutoZone(AZO)$ (Pre-market): Auto parts demand signal

⚠️ Notable gap: Wednesday = FOMC Decision Day (rate cut expected) - market volatility will be extremely high around these earnings

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