To The Moon

Trump has reversed his position once more.

Speaking at the Davos Forum yesterday, he publicly dismissed any plans for military action to take Greenland. “This will probably be my biggest surprise,” he told the audience, “as people actually thought I’d use force.”

Simultaneously, he posted on social media that the US would not levy tariffs on European countries opposing the potential Greenland acquisition, claiming a “framework for future agreement” has been established.

Gold prices fell sharply in response, dropping over 1% intraday. $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ declined in overnight trading: $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ and $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ slipped more than 0.8%, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ shed 1%, while $MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ tumbled over 3%.

Although Trump’s remarks have temporarily eased tensions over Greenland, he reiterated his broader stance—criticising European liberal democracies, questioning NATO’s relevance, and challenging leaders including Mark Carney and Emmanuel Macron.

The Globe and Mail reports that the Canadian Armed Forces have run simulations for a potential US incursion, prompted by Trump’s public references to Canada as a possible “51st state.”

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal notes that US officials assess Cuba’s economy is near collapse, with Washington actively pursuing regime change by year-end.

Despite Trump’s move to reduce immediate friction, the global order remains unsettled—and his Greenland ambitions appear unchanged.

Against this backdrop, $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ has raised its year-end gold target from US$4,900 to US$5,400 per ounce, citing growing demand from private investors and central banks.

Goldman projects global central banks will purchase roughly 60 tonnes of gold monthly this year. Furthermore, as the Federal Reserve pivots towards rate cuts, gold ETF holdings are expected to rise.

The investment bank highlighted that central banks are now competing directly with private investors for limited global gold supply—often through conventional ETFs.

This analysis is reinforced by the National Bank of Poland, the world’s most active central bank buyer, which approved a plan on Tuesday to purchase an additional 150 tonnes. The bank stated this would place Poland among the world’s top 10 gold reserve holders. At current prices, the purchase is valued at nearly US$23 billion.

IMF data shows Poland was the largest central bank buyer in 2025, acquiring approximately 100 tonnes.

All indications suggest gold may not have peaked yet.

Will this dip present a buying opportunity?

Major Gold ETFs at a Glance:

• $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ : The largest gold ETF, directly tracking gold prices. Not a mining ETF.

• $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ : The second-largest gold ETF, also tracking gold prices. Lower expense ratio than GLD (0.25% vs 0.4%).

• $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ : The third-largest, tracking gold mining equities. Management fee slightly higher at 0.5%.

• $MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ : A 3x leveraged ETF aiming to deliver triple the daily return of gold prices. Expense ratio is high at 0.95%, suitable only for short-term trading.