To The Moon

1. Live Review Introduction

Tiger Brokers livestream featuring Ross Dong, Founding Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management, specializing in macro trading and U.S. equities. A former equity trader at firms including J.P. Morgan and KCG, Ross holds a degree in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University.

In this session, he shared his views on inflation, employment, interest rates, U.S. equity valuations, and market positioning.

Ross remains constructive on U.S. equities in the near term, but believes late August and September could bring higher volatility and require more selective positioning.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent the official views of Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is strictly for education and discussion purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

More from the livestream recap series

• Live Recap 1: Why Ross Cut AI Exposure Before the Sell-Off

• Live Recap 3: AI Has Burned Billions — Are the Returns Finally Showing Up?

• Live Recap 4: Beyond Nvidia — Where Ross Sees the Next AI Opportunities

2. The Bar for Another Rate Hike Is High

Ross expects U.S. inflation to gradually ease after peaking around the second quarter.

Combined with softer economic data, he believes the threshold for another Federal Reserve rate hike in the second half of the year is relatively high.

His base case is that monetary policy will gradually move toward rate cuts from the second half of this year into next year, although inflation, oil prices and other data could create short-term fluctuations.

3. Employment Supports the Rate-Cut Case

Ross also highlighted weakness in the U.S. labour market, with employment conditions softening over recent months.

In his view:

Cooling inflation + softer employment = less justification for tighter monetary policy.

He also connected lower labour-force participation with the rise of One-Person Companies (OPCs), where AI agents may allow individuals to perform work that previously required much larger teams.

4. Watch Late August and Jackson Hole

Ross still sees room for U.S. equities to move higher in the near term, but identified late August and September as a period that may require greater caution.

The key event is the Jackson Hole central-bank gathering, which could influence monetary-policy expectations and market volatility.

During Q&A, Ross said an $S&P 500(.SPX)$ move toward 8,000 would not surprise him, but he believes the upside from current levels is becoming more limited.

5. Don't Ignore Financials and Industrials

As the broader market rises, Ross believes sector selection becomes increasingly important.

He highlighted:

• Healthcare

• Industrials

• Financials

• High-dividend companies

• Selected mega-cap technology stocks

Ross specifically pointed to companies such as $Caterpillar(CAT)$, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and $Goldman Sachs(GS)$, arguing that strong businesses outside AI have continued delivering solid fundamentals.

His message:

AI does not have to be the only source of market returns.

6. Are U.S. Stocks Too Expensive?

Ross believes $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ valuations remain relatively reasonable when compared with the strong earnings growth of AI and semiconductor companies.

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ looks somewhat more expensive, but he still sees relatively attractive valuations in:

Financials | Materials | Energy

Ross also challenged the idea that value investing does not involve timing:

"Value investing is actually one of the most typical forms of market timing."

Buying when a stock trades sufficiently below its perceived intrinsic value is, in his view, itself a timing decision.

7. CTA Positioning Favors Treasuries

Ross described CTAs as largely systematic trend-following strategies.

At the time of the livestream, equity positioning was not particularly extreme, suggesting the stock market was not yet heavily overcrowded from this perspective.

U.S. Treasury positioning, however, remained relatively low.

If Ross's rate-cut outlook plays out, he believes U.S. Treasuries could offer relatively attractive value.

8. Rising Equity Supply Is a Warning Sign

Ross also highlighted unusually high levels of new equity supply, including:

• IPOs

• Share issuance

• SPACs

• Convertible securities

His concern is simple:

When the supply of stocks rises faster than investor demand, market support can weaken.

He compared the current issuance environment with 2021, while stressing that this is a warning signal rather than a prediction that history must repeat.

9. Midterm Elections Could Increase Volatility

Ross expects U.S. politics to become increasingly important as the midterm elections approach.

Changes in congressional control could affect policy implementation, sector expectations, and overall market sentiment.

The key takeaway:

Political uncertainty can eventually translate into market volatility.

Closing Takeaway

Ross remains constructive on U.S. equities in the near term, but believes the market is entering a more selective phase.

Rather than simply following the index, investors may need to pay greater attention to:

Valuation + Sector Selection + Timing + Risk Management

Jackson Hole, monetary policy, rising equity supply, and the U.S. political calendar remain key risks to watch.

Next, we turn to the central question of the AI boom:

After years of massive AI infrastructure spending, are companies finally beginning to generate enough returns to justify it?

10. Post-Event Resources

Viewers can follow @Ross_Macro_Trading on the Tiger Community, his YouTube channel TMI Partner, or his X account, Ross Dong. More of his market views and research are also available through his official website, tmipartner.com.