Trade Idea: PANW

I am short-term NEUTRAL and long-term BEARISH on $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$  at these levels.

Here's a look at its daily chart:

As you can see, the stock is putting in a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart, which is characterised by lower highs and the same lows. Currently, the stock is trading near the 139-140 area which is close to the gap from 124 to 139. 

During today's session, the stock attempted to break into the gap but it bounced off 139.80s. This suggests that there are two possibilities for the stock in the coming days (which explains my neutrality in the short-term):

Possibility 1: The stock breaks below the 139-140 support level and gap fills to 120s. This signifies a breakdown of the descending triangle pattern.

Possibility 2: The stock bounces from the 139-140 support level and makes a move towards 150-160s to test the descending trend line of the triangle pattern. This suggests that the descending traingle continues to be in play until a breakout above the trend line or a break below the horizontal trend line into the gap fill.

So, how do we trade this? I personally would recommend a wait-and-see approach and to play the follow through rather than to guess. I would suggest taking PUTS if the stock closes within the gap fill territory (i.e. close below 139.50s) and taking CALLS if the stock manages to hold 140s and higher. However, if you are taking CALLS, I would suggest that you hedge with a small position of puts in case the stock decides to retest the 139-140 support level even before touching the upper trend line. If we do end up breaking below the triangle, then you can cut your calls and switch to puts. Good luck everyone!

If you enjoyed this post, then leave a like and/or a comment on my post and follow me for more of such posts!

@TigerWire  @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  

$QQQ(QQQ)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$  $Salesforce.com(CRM)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 



# 💰 Stocks to watch today?(20 Dec)

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment34

  • Top
  • Latest
  • zinglee
    ·2022-12-28
    TOP
    Doubled up and lowered my cost average to $148. Relatively new to PANW investment but have been watching for months. Seems like a no brainer at this price!
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • TBI
      seriously? pattern tells you otherwise. doesn't hurt to add some here but you can add even more later on. leave powder and average in
      2022-12-28
      Reply
      Report
  • cheerzy
    ·2022-12-28
    TOP
    I just think we should have been seeing stronger earning results by now. Stock of what I believe to be a very good company should not be down over 25%. Not with strong sales and great cash flow.
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • TBI
      fundamentals are one, macros are another. macros are not favouring bullishness now. if we do get a bounce it might come in January instead.
      2022-12-28
      Reply
      Report
  • JohnnyYoung
    ·2022-12-28
    Technically it looks bearish. But Let's consider about the whole stock market condition as well.
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • TBI
      down gaps are acting as magnets right now. spy looks ripe for a bounce and that could lead markets up but tech has been a laggard for a while and a big victim of the current sell off
      2022-12-28
      Reply
      Report
  • frosti
    ·2022-12-28
    Excellent opportunity to add on profit-taking before PANW — best of breed in the space — potentially, revisits the $180s over the presumed holiday rally.
    Reply
    Report
  • TBI
    ·2022-12-28
    I forgot to comment why I'm bearish but a descending triangle pattern is normally bearish as it tends to lead to a breakdown below the triangle.

    Moreover, the stock is putting in a potential head and shoulders pattern if you zoom out even more, and a breakdown should facilitate this pattern

    Reply
    Report
  • CynthiaVogt
    ·2022-12-28
    Good. Tha chart significantly indicates a long-term bear
    Reply
    Report
  • WendyDelia
    ·2022-12-28
    This is very interesting. I have learned a lot. We can learn a lot technical knowledge
    Reply
    Report
  • DaveLewis
    ·2022-12-28
    Thanks for strategies and advice, puts indeed.
    Reply
    Report
  • Tracccy
    ·2022-12-28
    great analysis, will avoid this one
    Reply
    Report
  • Sohtheworld
    ·2022-12-28
    Ooooo finally i se
    Reply
    Report
  • RKT
    ·2022-12-29
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • Nighttt
    ·2022-12-29
    M
    Reply
    Report
  • MeowKitty
    ·2022-12-28
    OK
    Reply
    Report
  • ekwee75
    ·2022-12-28
    [Happy]
    Reply
    Report
  • Derrick_1234
    ·2022-12-28
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • WLing
    ·2022-12-28
    [Strong]
    Reply
    Report
  • phongy 45
    ·2022-12-28
    Noted
    Reply
    Report
  • CedricLau
    ·2022-12-28
    [Smile]
    Reply
    Report
  • Andy Fong
    ·2022-12-28
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • MarcusChan
    ·2022-12-28
    okay
    Reply
    Report