To The Moon

$ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED(ORG.AU)$ is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas, & LPG. On 10/11/22, ORG announced that a consortium made up of Brookfield Asset Management & affiliates, along with Mid Ocean Energy(an LNG company formed by EIG Partners) had approached ORG for a takeover bid at $9 per share, a 55% premium to its previous price of $5.8.

➡️ This bid received unanimous support from the company’s board. Previous offers by the consortium of $7.95 cash per share in Aug & $8.70 to $8.90 per share in Sep were rejected.

➡️ Initially, the exclusivity period for due diligence was set to expire on 16 Jan but an additional week until 24 Jan was granted for the North American consortium. Shares in Origin Energy slid as investors were quick to speculate on the update.

✅ Analysts at Morgan Stanley have upgraded the ORG share price to “overweight” with a $8.88 price target🎯

🥳🥳 What an excellent 🎯price for CNY🧧🧧🧧 This implies an upside of about 23.5% based on today’s closing price of $7.29 today, 19/1.

✅ Morgan Stanley believes Origin Energy, along with its utilities peer $AGL ENERGY LTD(AGL.AU)$ is “underappreciated”

✅ The broker now has “higher conviction in the company’s access to capital, and its ability to monetise the opportunities” amid the energy transition towards decarbonisation.

⚠️NOTE RISK:

‼️ The above market bid also coincided with the federal government’s direct intervention into the gas market which imposed a $12 a gigajoule price cap on gas & a $125 per tonne cap on coal. Analysts had flagged concern the intervention could derail the Brookfield’s takeover offer of Origin.

‼️ Morgan Stanley is wary of fuel price volatility, natural disasters, unpredictable weather, & government policy intervention.

🤔💭 My Thoughts:

⭐️ This may be an opportunity to grab a deal with the mild sell-down although it carries risk as with all takeovers that the deal will fall through❣️You’ll be sitting in the same boat⛵️ as Buffett $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$ & holders while they wait for the deal by $Microsoft(MSFT)$   to close. 

👍 We know that the North American consortium is serious about the bid as it made 3 offers❣️

👍 We also know that ORG is a valuable company & the Board knows its actual worth❣️

👍 For Singaporeans, the exchange rate now is about 1SGD to 1.095AUD. This means that you’ll already be making an additional 9.5% profit💵 purely based on exchange rate🤩😍

👍 A successful takeover deal means that you’ll save on selling fees-platform charge & commission since you have to sell your shares when profit-taking😉

👍 You’ll grab a better deal than me as I bought it last year😅

👎 Extension might mean that there’s a possibility of negotiating on a lower price given the Dec government intervention on price cap, so the 20% profit might be reduced❗️

⭐️⭐️ I’m not excessively worried about buying ORG at the $7+ price as it’s a calculated risk worth taking for me. WHY❓

🥇 If deal goes through, I get $9 per share🥳🥳🥳

🥈 If deal falls through, I will just hold the stock & wait for $8.88 to sell😉

🥉 I can just hold the stock for dividends, & once it breaks even my cost price, it’ll be passive income & profit for life💵💵💵

🏆 I will not have to sell this stock at a loss because energy companies are essentials❣️ Just wait for the next energy crisis & the stocks will go boom again📈📈📈 Moreover, the management of ORG is far-sighted & has already transitioned to renewable energy unlike other oil/gas/coal companies that have yet to do so👍👍👍

Fellow 🐯🐯🐯 Do share your thoughts about ORG in the comments section as I love a convo❣️ Please help to click on the “Like” & “Share/Repost” buttons at the Bottom Right corner so that more 🐯🐯🐯 can access this information, many thanks🤗🥰 You will Greatly Encourage Me❣️ Follow me if you enjoy reading my analytical stock research🔍 presented in a fun & easily understandable way😉

As usual-🤔💭 Consider POV & Actions of investors + 👩🏻‍💻👨🏻‍💻 Research + 🗑FOMO & Greed = Investing Wisely 🤓🤗 + Accumulating Wealth 💵💰

@Daily_Discussion @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger @Tiger_AU @ASX_Stars 

@SGX_Stars @Tiger_SG Great stock for SG 🐯🐯🐯 due to exchange rate especially if there's a once-off CNY promotion of discounted fees for ASX stocks to encourage us Singaporeans to go into the ASX❣️