The fed would most likely go for 75 bps because the economy is still "strong" but there are signs of "weakness" in their eyes.. For me.. if they are serious about tackling inflation.. the interest rate has to match inflation.. and they are still a long way off..The question to ask is.. with the US govt debt level at such insane level.. how much higher can they raise interest rate before the entire economy collapse and US govt declare bankruptis anyone guess..
Looks like another rally before the announcement by the fed at the end of the month on ratehikes.. market supposingly has already priced in 75 basis points and is believed that the CPI that would be announced tomorrow will drop.. prompting the fed to drop rates soon..However.. the feds have indicated that they will not stop until inflation drops significantly or until something critical breaks in the economyand the macro factors have not change much.. supply chain is still tight.. china rolling lockdowns are still continuing.. the ukraine war is not showing any signs of stopping.. and the continuing tension between US and China is not helping.. In any case.. trade with caution.. this period will be choppy and market should be moving sideways until a clearer direction from th
$Devon(DVN)$Oil companies are booming.. Dividends of $1.55 per share exercising on 9 Sept.. That is like 2.2% of its share price.. with quarterly dividends exercise.. this year alone.. dividends have been increasing from 0.84 to 1.55 per share [Wow] [Miser]
$BABA 20220916 125.0 CALL$Sian.. always after i sell.. the price went up and the premium shoot up.. i should be more greedy next time.. wait for higher premium before accepting the contract [LOL] [Sly]
Looks like the feds will keep increasing until something breaks.. Based on past data.. in order to bring down inflation.. the interest rate have to be as high or higher than the inflation rate.. which will be around 8% to 9%... if rates ever go this high.. the economy will not be in a recession.. it will be a full blown depression and it is likely many companies and even the government will be in default due to the amount of debt that they are holding now.. But we shall see if the fed has the resolve and courage to walk the talk..
Full Speech By Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Monetary Policy and Price Stability
Predictions are always 50/50.. Either you get it correct or not.. The most important thing is to be prepared for both.. if you are trading.. you can have a hypothesis of the direction of the stock market.. but remember to hedge for the other direction.. in caseyour hypothesis is wrong..For long term traders.. always fall back to company fundamentals.. good moat.. strong cashflow.. low debt... increasing revenue or good growth...I believe powell will press for 75 basis points if he can get away with it.. unless he sees indicators that the economy is going to become really bad very fast and he wants to delay the inevitable..
Market should be going sideways until the announcement of the fed next round of interest rates hike.. Many analysts projected that the fedshould be only raising interest rate by 50 basis points instead of 75 basis points due to the perceived slowing down of inflation.. so there is no need to be too aggressive anymore..However.. inflation is still much higher than the norm and much more sticky due to supply chain issues and the amount of stimulus still sloashing around in the market.. Any increase in interest rates not only affects individuals like us.. but also institutions and even government as it makes it more expensive to borrow money and also to refinance existing loans.. so there is a limit to how much the fed can increase interest rates before everything starts t