Terence_5890 personal page - To The Moon

Terence_5890

Terence_5890

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2023-12-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$

2023-10-26

tesla good must buy will up to $500 per share

2023-06-26

tiger woods and his dad and

2023-06-22

tiger woods and his dad got it from

2023-06-19

tiger woods and his dad and dad were going out

2023-06-16

tiger is the only one that has to be

2023-06-15

Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this

2023-06-14

come and play tiger game tonight and get some

2023-06-13

Tiger new game. Good app for trading.

@TigerEvents:Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999

2023-06-13

@tiger nice. Tiger app

2023-04-14

tiger woods and his dad and dad were in

2023-04-13

tiger woods are in town for some time today at work

2023-04-12

tiger woods and his dad and dad were in town for some reason

2023-04-11

Tiger Woods has a long way in his life and is the most popular golfer of all of his years on this list of winners and

2023-04-10

Tigers were a great game in my book but theyare a little too far for the team that is playing right away in their own

2023-04-09

Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this year and has won three of

2023-04-06

tiget good nice power

2023-04-05

Tiger game. Must try up. Good to play

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2023-03-22

hhh

杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖

2023-03-08

👍

“新美联储传声筒”：鲍威尔或警告美联储的加息幅度将超预期

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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the Masters this year and has won three of","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946460156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948404806,"gmtCreate":1680756652505,"gmtModify":1680756657472,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiget good nice power","listText":"tiget good nice power","text":"tiget good nice 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Good to play&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger game.&nbsp; Must try up. Good to play&nbsp;","text":"Tiger game. Must try up. Good to play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948825325","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943231046,"gmtCreate":1679470633986,"gmtModify":1679470637585,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hhh","listText":"hhh","text":"hhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943231046","repostId":"1100480684","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100480684","pubTimestamp":1679455925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100480684?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-22 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100480684","media":"金十数据","summary":"在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。</blockquote><p>全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。</p><p>加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但<b>投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会</b>，其影响力更加不容小觑。<b>研究发现，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的市场波动比他的前任高出三倍，而且他往往还能神奇地扭转市场对FOMC声明的最初反应。</b></p><p>在过去一年的六次新闻发布会期间，标普500指数的涨跌幅度超过1%，市值波动达到3000亿美元。鲍威尔主持的新闻发布往往会有两个特点。</p><blockquote>第一，在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。自2011年以来一直如此，但鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会尤其如此，这表明新闻发布会在塑造近期市场预期方面发挥了巨大作用。</blockquote><blockquote>第二，在新冠疫情大流行之前，新闻发布会倾向于强化FOMC的声明，市场在新闻发布会期间的走势与最初对声明做出的反应一致。然而，自新冠疫情大流行开始以来，股票和债券市场在新闻发布会期间的走势往往与市场对FOMC声明的最初反应相反。这种逆转与鲍威尔在讲话中的措辞有关系。</blockquote><p>图1展示了鲍威尔及其前任耶伦召开新闻发布会当天标普500指数回报率的波动情况。可以看出鲍威尔任期内的波动性要大得多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad8758b93fdf1e7013c31db3a1ba47b\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>图2总结了最近三位美联储主席在新闻发布会期间市场波动的升高情况。尽管在这三位主席召开的新闻发布会上，市场波动都会加剧，<b>但在鲍威尔任期内尤其明显：市场波动比前任主席任期内高出三倍</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a68b7309ffecfd3de0a34ad4b7c94d68\" tg-width=\"1111\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔的新闻发布会期间市场波动更加剧烈的一个解释可能是，在他的任期内，<b>宏观环境更加动荡</b>，其中包括疫情应对和随后的通胀抬头。此外，在FOMC声明发布后的几分钟内，不同主席任下的市场波动没有显著差异，<b>这表明鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的波动加剧并不是更令人惊讶的利率政策的结果</b>。</p><p>在伯南克和耶伦的领导下，美联储的新闻发布会通常会重申FOMC声明中传递的信息。如图3显示，在新闻发布会上，市场走势倾向于与FOMC发布声明后最初的走势一致。鲍威尔在新冠疫情前的会议上也是这样做的，但最近的会议却偏离了这一模式。自2020年3月以来，<b>市场在鲍威尔的新闻会议期间的走势往往与最初的走势相反</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d60b7f2c3e07ca9f5897b8a443d0ce4\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>对于市场逆转的一种解释是，市场对FOMC最初的声明反应过度，因为它“倾向于倾听”。然而，通过分析鲍威尔最近几次新闻发布会上的问答文本，再将最近几次新闻发布会上的市场走势与鲍威尔使用的语言联系起来，可以发现，其中的原因不仅仅是市场潜在的过度反应。</b></p><p>例如，鲍威尔在2022年9月21日的新闻发布会上使用的语言，往往与FOMC声明中利好股市的部分有关，在此期间市场反弹，两年期国债收益率下降了近8个基点。而在2022年11月2日的会议上，他转向了明显更为负面的语言，在此期间股市下跌了近2%。</p><p>这些市场逆转表明，<b>FOMC的声明不再是美联储对利率指导的“最后决定”</b>。</p><p>图4展示了耶伦和鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会期间，两年期美国国债收益率的走势。在耶伦任期内，债市对FOMC声明的发布做出了迅速反应，并在新闻发布会后倾向于保持在这一水平附近。然而，在鲍威尔任期内，特别是在FOMC声明发布导致国债收益率上升的日子里，市场在新闻发布会上往往会逆转对FOMC声明发布的最初反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2fc971c6f1e881633a94a00f61804f\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这些模式表明，<b>美联储新闻发布会的角色正在转变，正变得越来越重要，而且并不总是直接重申FOMC的声明。这种变化可能是沟通策略不断发展的必然结果：鲍威尔每年举行的新闻发布会数量也比他的前任增加了一倍，FOMC声明的长度、复杂性和观点的多样性随着时间的推移也发生了变化。</b></p><p>还有一种可能的原因是，<b>新闻发布会允许主席强调自己的观点，并先于其他委员会成员提出FOMC讨论中未被FOMC声明捕捉、但市场认为具有重要意义的部分。</b>不过，偏离FOMC声明中的统一信息并导致市场波动加剧，这个结果可能与美联储的其他沟通目标不一致。股债市场的大幅波动显然与增加可预测性和减少不确定性的目标不相容。事实上，最近的会议在降低未来利率路径的不确定性方面不太成功。</p><p>最后一种可能性是，<b>将市场波动最小化的目标是错误的</b>。<b>一个“不太担心其行动对债市的直接影响的美联储或许能够在必要时更灵活地调整政策”。</b>换句话说，当FOMC能像今天这样快速了解经济状况时，也许正是需要一位愿意推动市场走势的美联储主席。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-22 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100480684","content_text":"美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会，其影响力更加不容小觑。研究发现，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的市场波动比他的前任高出三倍，而且他往往还能神奇地扭转市场对FOMC声明的最初反应。在过去一年的六次新闻发布会期间，标普500指数的涨跌幅度超过1%，市值波动达到3000亿美元。鲍威尔主持的新闻发布往往会有两个特点。第一，在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。自2011年以来一直如此，但鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会尤其如此，这表明新闻发布会在塑造近期市场预期方面发挥了巨大作用。第二，在新冠疫情大流行之前，新闻发布会倾向于强化FOMC的声明，市场在新闻发布会期间的走势与最初对声明做出的反应一致。然而，自新冠疫情大流行开始以来，股票和债券市场在新闻发布会期间的走势往往与市场对FOMC声明的最初反应相反。这种逆转与鲍威尔在讲话中的措辞有关系。图1展示了鲍威尔及其前任耶伦召开新闻发布会当天标普500指数回报率的波动情况。可以看出鲍威尔任期内的波动性要大得多。图2总结了最近三位美联储主席在新闻发布会期间市场波动的升高情况。尽管在这三位主席召开的新闻发布会上，市场波动都会加剧，但在鲍威尔任期内尤其明显：市场波动比前任主席任期内高出三倍。鲍威尔的新闻发布会期间市场波动更加剧烈的一个解释可能是，在他的任期内，宏观环境更加动荡，其中包括疫情应对和随后的通胀抬头。此外，在FOMC声明发布后的几分钟内，不同主席任下的市场波动没有显著差异，这表明鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的波动加剧并不是更令人惊讶的利率政策的结果。在伯南克和耶伦的领导下，美联储的新闻发布会通常会重申FOMC声明中传递的信息。如图3显示，在新闻发布会上，市场走势倾向于与FOMC发布声明后最初的走势一致。鲍威尔在新冠疫情前的会议上也是这样做的，但最近的会议却偏离了这一模式。自2020年3月以来，市场在鲍威尔的新闻会议期间的走势往往与最初的走势相反。对于市场逆转的一种解释是，市场对FOMC最初的声明反应过度，因为它“倾向于倾听”。然而，通过分析鲍威尔最近几次新闻发布会上的问答文本，再将最近几次新闻发布会上的市场走势与鲍威尔使用的语言联系起来，可以发现，其中的原因不仅仅是市场潜在的过度反应。例如，鲍威尔在2022年9月21日的新闻发布会上使用的语言，往往与FOMC声明中利好股市的部分有关，在此期间市场反弹，两年期国债收益率下降了近8个基点。而在2022年11月2日的会议上，他转向了明显更为负面的语言，在此期间股市下跌了近2%。这些市场逆转表明，FOMC的声明不再是美联储对利率指导的“最后决定”。图4展示了耶伦和鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会期间，两年期美国国债收益率的走势。在耶伦任期内，债市对FOMC声明的发布做出了迅速反应，并在新闻发布会后倾向于保持在这一水平附近。然而，在鲍威尔任期内，特别是在FOMC声明发布导致国债收益率上升的日子里，市场在新闻发布会上往往会逆转对FOMC声明发布的最初反应。这些模式表明，美联储新闻发布会的角色正在转变，正变得越来越重要，而且并不总是直接重申FOMC的声明。这种变化可能是沟通策略不断发展的必然结果：鲍威尔每年举行的新闻发布会数量也比他的前任增加了一倍，FOMC声明的长度、复杂性和观点的多样性随着时间的推移也发生了变化。还有一种可能的原因是，新闻发布会允许主席强调自己的观点，并先于其他委员会成员提出FOMC讨论中未被FOMC声明捕捉、但市场认为具有重要意义的部分。不过，偏离FOMC声明中的统一信息并导致市场波动加剧，这个结果可能与美联储的其他沟通目标不一致。股债市场的大幅波动显然与增加可预测性和减少不确定性的目标不相容。事实上，最近的会议在降低未来利率路径的不确定性方面不太成功。最后一种可能性是，将市场波动最小化的目标是错误的。一个“不太担心其行动对债市的直接影响的美联储或许能够在必要时更灵活地调整政策”。换句话说，当FOMC能像今天这样快速了解经济状况时，也许正是需要一位愿意推动市场走势的美联储主席。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949090990,"gmtCreate":1678228420610,"gmtModify":1678228424372,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949090990","repostId":"1145745223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145745223","pubTimestamp":1678194660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145745223?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-07 21:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新美联储传声筒”：鲍威尔或警告美联储的加息幅度将超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145745223","media":"金十数据","summary":"面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？</b></blockquote><p>周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。</p><p>鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。<b>这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就利率政策发表讲话，</b>因为美联储将于本周六进入“缄默期”。</p><p>继去年11月和12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点后，美联储在上个月放慢了加息步伐。其上个月将利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%的区间，目的是继续给经济降温来减轻价格压力。</p><p>美联储一直试图通过加息来抑制投资、支出和招聘，加息会提高借贷成本，并可能压低股票和房地产等资产的价格。联邦基金利率影响着整个经济中的其他借贷成本。</p><p>去年12月，大多数美联储官员认为，<b>今年他们将把联邦基金利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年</b>。他们将在即将召开的3月议息会议上提交新的预测。</p><p>Timiraos称，在2月1日的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，如果经济如官员们预期的那样放缓，他们可能会在3月和5月的每次会议上加息25个基点。</p><p>但他也警告称，<b>如果经济表现出惊人的强劲势头，美联储可能会进一步加息</b>。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上说：</p><blockquote>“我们将仔细研究从现在到3月会议之间的数据，如果我们认为我们需要将利率提高到12月所说的水平之上，我们肯定会这么做。”</blockquote><p>自他发表上述言论以来，几份经济报告显示，<b>1月份的就业、消费者支出和通胀都有所上升</b>。此外，修正后的数据显示，<b>通胀和劳动力需求放缓的程度并不像去年底最初报告的那样。</b></p><p>因此，几位美联储官员表示，<b>他们今年的加息幅度可能会超过此前的预期</b>。三位地区联储主席表示，上个月他们本可以支持更大幅度的加息，可能将在即将召开的3月会议上支持更大幅度的加息。</p><p><b>近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期</b>。在美联储召开的上次会议上，利率期货市场的投资者预计，<b>美联储官员今年只会再将联邦基金利率上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息</b>。根据芝商所的数据，<b>周一，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。</b></p><p>Timiraos表示，<b>投资者将仔细分析鲍威尔的措辞，以寻找美联储是否可能像普遍预期的那样加息25个基点，或者他是否可能表示愿意加息50个基点的线索。</b></p><p>不过，Timiraos认为，<b>鲍威尔本周在引导市场方面可能会受到限制</b>，<b>因为两份受到广泛关注的经济报告将在他作证之后和下次会议之前发布</b>，这两份报告可能会影响官员们的审议。美国劳工部将于本周五公布2月非农就业报告，美国2月CPI报告将在下周公布。</p><p>美国1月份新增非农就业人数为51.7万，而失业率则降至3.4%，为53年来的最低水平，这一数字令经济学家感到震惊，他们原本预计就业岗位将放缓。周五的最新非农就业报告可能会提供一些线索，说明就业增长是昙花一现，还是经济正在加速的迹象。</p><p>对于通胀，去年年底通胀的下降趋势在1月份暂缓。根据美国商务部的PCE数据，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源项目后的年通胀率为4.7%，高于去年12月的4.6%。</p><p>因受到新冠疫情的打击，美联储曾将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平，但在过去12个月里，美联储加息的幅度超过了上世纪80年代初以来的任何时候。官员们已经放慢了加息的步伐，以观察其举措的效果。</p><p>周二的听证会是鲍威尔自去年6月美联储将联邦基金利率上调至1.5%至1.75%区间以来首次在国会露面。少数民主党议员一直淡化对通胀的担忧，他们警告鲍威尔不要加息过快或过高，并对美联储急于通过寻求增加失业率来减缓经济增长表示担忧。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-07 21:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6a36ceb193aa7f7b4a920e3a909ada","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145745223","content_text":"面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就利率政策发表讲话，因为美联储将于本周六进入“缄默期”。继去年11月和12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点后，美联储在上个月放慢了加息步伐。其上个月将利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%的区间，目的是继续给经济降温来减轻价格压力。美联储一直试图通过加息来抑制投资、支出和招聘，加息会提高借贷成本，并可能压低股票和房地产等资产的价格。联邦基金利率影响着整个经济中的其他借贷成本。去年12月，大多数美联储官员认为，今年他们将把联邦基金利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年。他们将在即将召开的3月议息会议上提交新的预测。Timiraos称，在2月1日的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，如果经济如官员们预期的那样放缓，他们可能会在3月和5月的每次会议上加息25个基点。但他也警告称，如果经济表现出惊人的强劲势头，美联储可能会进一步加息。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上说：“我们将仔细研究从现在到3月会议之间的数据，如果我们认为我们需要将利率提高到12月所说的水平之上，我们肯定会这么做。”自他发表上述言论以来，几份经济报告显示，1月份的就业、消费者支出和通胀都有所上升。此外，修正后的数据显示，通胀和劳动力需求放缓的程度并不像去年底最初报告的那样。因此，几位美联储官员表示，他们今年的加息幅度可能会超过此前的预期。三位地区联储主席表示，上个月他们本可以支持更大幅度的加息，可能将在即将召开的3月会议上支持更大幅度的加息。近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期。在美联储召开的上次会议上，利率期货市场的投资者预计，美联储官员今年只会再将联邦基金利率上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息。根据芝商所的数据，周一，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。Timiraos表示，投资者将仔细分析鲍威尔的措辞，以寻找美联储是否可能像普遍预期的那样加息25个基点，或者他是否可能表示愿意加息50个基点的线索。不过，Timiraos认为，鲍威尔本周在引导市场方面可能会受到限制，因为两份受到广泛关注的经济报告将在他作证之后和下次会议之前发布，这两份报告可能会影响官员们的审议。美国劳工部将于本周五公布2月非农就业报告，美国2月CPI报告将在下周公布。美国1月份新增非农就业人数为51.7万，而失业率则降至3.4%，为53年来的最低水平，这一数字令经济学家感到震惊，他们原本预计就业岗位将放缓。周五的最新非农就业报告可能会提供一些线索，说明就业增长是昙花一现，还是经济正在加速的迹象。对于通胀，去年年底通胀的下降趋势在1月份暂缓。根据美国商务部的PCE数据，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源项目后的年通胀率为4.7%，高于去年12月的4.6%。因受到新冠疫情的打击，美联储曾将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平，但在过去12个月里，美联储加息的幅度超过了上世纪80年代初以来的任何时候。官员们已经放慢了加息的步伐，以观察其举措的效果。周二的听证会是鲍威尔自去年6月美联储将联邦基金利率上调至1.5%至1.75%区间以来首次在国会露面。少数民主党议员一直淡化对通胀的担忧，他们警告鲍威尔不要加息过快或过高，并对美联储急于通过寻求增加失业率来减缓经济增长表示担忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":234472240578680,"gmtCreate":1698279967707,"gmtModify":1698279971955,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tesla 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966396219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882951674,"gmtCreate":1631656476698,"gmtModify":1676530599145,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/882951674","repostId":"1149180242","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149180242","pubTimestamp":1631619850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149180242?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 19:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149180242","media":"见实","summary":"随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪","content":"<p>随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。</p>\n<p>这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？</p>\n<p><b>01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴</b></p>\n<p>三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：</p>\n<p>海量用户会将阿里平台上的商品链接、字节跳动（包含<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>）的内容链接分享过来，并因此带走巨大流量。</p>\n<p>我们尝试找到一些历史数据，来间接说明这些分享量、回流量的恐怖量级。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab009836e6e66e605e7dcc62ed7deed3\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这是2018年时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688179\">阿拉丁</a>小程序指数对微信小程序平台上的各类信息，分别进行分享率和回流率大数据统计后，分享给《见实》的结论。</p>\n<p>以其中内容资讯为例，每100人阅读，就有2.6人分享到社交平台<b>（分享率）</b>，每次分享带回6.91个流量<b>（回流率）</b>。每100人购买商品，会有0.68个用户分享商品链接至社交平台，每次分享带回1.70个流量。</p>\n<p>这些数据看起来一般，但如果乘以字节跳动和阿里巴巴的巨大体量，将会是一个让所有行业绝对仰望的数字。</p>\n<p>《见实》尝试从畅销书《小群效应》中找到一张图表来辅助说明。这根曲线通常用来解读：</p>\n<p>在现在社交网络中，最热门现象和服务会占据所在行业80%-90%以上用户目光。<b>处于社交网络头部区域的数百家企业，会获得绝大部分社交红利，这是非常典型的“幂律曲线”。</b></p>\n<p>分享也是如此。记忆中，2015年前排名头部前三的企业，仅在一天时间中被用户分享到腾讯系的信息量，就超过<b>1100万</b>条。</p>\n<p>六年后的今天，三大平台互向对方开放后，字节跳动和阿里巴巴每天可不止1100万信息量分享到微信，真实量级或会数倍于此。这么庞大分享量，不论是乘以6.91回流率，还是1.70回流率，都足够开心。</p>\n<p><b>因为是免费的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为对阿里和字节来说是额外、直接增长的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。</b>尤其当这两大平台重大事件、重大活动（如双11、618）时，当这两大平台持续优化各种分享文案时，回流和转化数据更会以数倍上涨。</p>\n<p>无论如何，整个腾讯（尤其是微信），向外界平台分流的第一、第二名，一定会变成字节跳动（甚至可能抖音和今日头条分据前二）、阿里巴巴（如果拆分，则天猫和淘宝、淘特可能占据接下来的第三名到第五名）。</p>\n<p>不得不提一句：</p>\n<p><b>用户时间和注意力是有限的，不论是分享信息，还是点击阅读和参与活动。</b></p>\n<p>当阿里巴巴和字节跳动冲入到社交网络大盘子时，对于其他公司恐怕就不是那么开心了。因为蛋糕的最大份，被直接切走了。</p>\n<p><b>02、抖音电商和阿里</b><b>交易额上扬</b></p>\n<p>刚才描述了社交网络（微信）回流量的庞大，我们特意没有提及社交对电商订单转化带来的影响，是因为这个数量同样诱人。</p>\n<p>几组基础数据可以先用来参考：</p>\n<p>-&nbsp;大平均上，每两个分享到社交网络中的商品链接，就有一个会转化订单。</p>\n<p>作为对比，过去在社交电商类社区中，每100个浏览行为可以产生7次订单转化。</p>\n<p>- 按照腾讯2021年半年度财报所公布数据，小程序交易额继续以100%速度上涨，今年全年交易额或远超3.2万亿人民币。</p>\n<p>万亿规模是一个非常庞大的难以跃升的门槛，如快手最新财报就显示，其电商交易总额为人民币1454亿元。而近日行业传言，抖音电商将跨过一年万亿成交总额门槛。</p>\n<p>在越过万亿级别的平台中，除去微信小程序总交易额、抖音电商，还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>。2020年度财报显示，该平台在当年交易总额（GMV）<b>近1.67万亿</b>，较2019年的10066亿元同比增长66%。</p>\n<p>淘宝联盟当下产生交易额暂时查询不到，2020年5月28日时，淘宝曾对外称，希望加速实现<b>“三年内达到1万亿的目标”</b>。</p>\n<p>当微信的链接大门打开，意味着抖音电商、阿里巴巴的交易额将会获得巨大增长。他们将有可能从小程序3.2万亿体量和拼多多1.67万亿体量中，直接撕走一大块。</p>\n<p>尤其是<b>抖音电商，受益最大。</b></p>\n<p><b>03、抖音系APP下载受益</b></p>\n<p>娱乐系视频内容在社交网络中从来最受欢迎。从内容到下载的路径，也是最简单直接、最为通透。</p>\n<p>《见实》援引《小群效应》中的一张图，来说明这类APP下载转化比例：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f528003f0d479874d2ce810dfe01f5e8\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图并非是抖音的社交下载数据，而是来自此前某一款新创APP的后台数据截图。只是和抖音类似，同为娱乐属性。从表中可见，几乎是每一次分享，都会带来接近一次的下载和注册新增。</p>\n<p>在没有开放链接的情况下，抖音视频都顽强体现在无数微信群中。参照上述下载比例，大开放后字节系中包括抖音、西瓜等在内的APP下载增量、用户注册增量仍会继续增长。刚才一组话我们甚至可以直接复用：</p>\n<p><b>因为是免费的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为对字节来说是额外、直接增长的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。</b>尤其当有重大事件、优质爆款内容产生时，当字节系持续优化各种分享文案时，APP下载转化数据仍会继续上升。</p>\n<p><b>04、私域电商会受益</b></p>\n<p>如果链接网址大开放了，抖音和阿里巴巴会继续屏蔽“微信”这个关键词、依然禁止用户关注商家的微信吗？</p>\n<p>答案显然不会。业界正在感受着有关部门打通互联障碍的决心。如果是这样，那么私域电商会极大受益，企业会十分开心。</p>\n<p>过去不互通时，企业都在通过快递、红包等形式，顽强吸引着用户关注商家微信，沉淀到私域流量池中进行长期维护、持续复购转化。</p>\n<p><b>回顾历史，私域虽在微信生态落地生根，却是阿里巴巴商家催生出来的玩法。</b></p>\n<p>现在，当允许商家在阿里巴巴和抖音上关联微信或企业微信时，私域电商会继续增长。企业可以将更多财力和人力投入到私域运营中去，因此运营成本、广告成本反而会更低，利润上升。</p>\n<p>此外，关系链对电商持续施加的影响，注定了用户更加相信“信任”、“好友”。</p>\n<p>私域电商会获得更大发展。</p>\n<p>而且，现在抖音已经迅速布局私域，阿里巴巴重度布局私域各类基础设施的日子也不会远了。一旦阿里再进入，更多红利会释放给到各类品牌企业。</p>\n<p>微信小程序GMV虽然早期会受到一定影响，长期看，基础更坚实，交易额规模仍然会稳步增长。</p>\n<p><b>受益的，会是无数品牌企业。</b></p>\n<p><b>腾讯和微信也将大受益。</b>更多品牌和用户之间的关系，将沉淀在微信私域中。</p>\n<p>同样是2021年度上半年财报中，腾讯几乎在猛夸私域，是因为借助私域这根线，腾讯在广告、云、智慧零售、支付等等一系列重要市场中，获得了极大提升。</p>\n<p><b>05、可能的平台调整</b></p>\n<p>动辄就是万亿电商规模，动辄就是每天数以千万级用户流动，三大平台之间怎么会不谨慎对待？</p>\n<p>首先是不必担心平台的小动作。这在有关部门的发声中早就严厉预警：</p>\n<p>“要求企业按照整改要求，务实推动分步骤、分阶段得到解决。下一步，一是加强行政指导，对整改不到位的企业督促落实；二是加强监督检查，通过多种方式确保问题整改到位；三是对整改不彻底的企业，处罚一批典型违规企业。”</p>\n<p>三大平台推出的可能的新规则，或会有几个：</p>\n<p><b>一是付费接口会诞生。</b>超过一定调用数量的接口，需要付费，这对大平台来说其实是很小的支出，估计会欣然接受。</p>\n<p><b>二是在接口调用权限有明显分级。</b>这其实已是现状，如许多新应用，当分享量在短时间内超过一定数量后，会被自然限制，直到第二天再度解锁。</p>\n<p><b>三是现有规则之下，许多标准和要求会由用户来掌控。</b>如投诉量超过一定数量或比例后，接口调用权限会下降（比如每天分享次数由千万级下降到百万级、万级）；用户也可以要求去重显示某些链接，如某一类链接频繁出现在自己面前时，要求不再重复出现。</p>\n<p><b>四是三大平台对于灰色应用、灰色账号、灰色行为的打击，会越加严厉。</b></p>\n<p>最后简单看，三大平台各自受益不同角度。且打通后，在这些平台上的企业运营会变得更便利，不再需要想尽一切办法去规避平台禁令。运营成本下降，利润上升。跨平台运营这件事，或会变成一个新的大生意。</p>","source":"lsy1595213610726","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-14 19:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3NTU5NDc0NA==&mid=2247528476&idx=1&sn=301d3d1c0ceee7e6100c65b0209a9607&chksm=fd22f98bca55709da708312d179f911f3bf6e62e392bdd6953b3e4f49968caf36d070b6ba644&scene=27#wechat_redirect><strong>见实</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？\n01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴\n三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3NTU5NDc0NA==&mid=2247528476&idx=1&sn=301d3d1c0ceee7e6100c65b0209a9607&chksm=fd22f98bca55709da708312d179f911f3bf6e62e392bdd6953b3e4f49968caf36d070b6ba644&scene=27#wechat_redirect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","00700":"腾讯控股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3NTU5NDc0NA==&mid=2247528476&idx=1&sn=301d3d1c0ceee7e6100c65b0209a9607&chksm=fd22f98bca55709da708312d179f911f3bf6e62e392bdd6953b3e4f49968caf36d070b6ba644&scene=27#wechat_redirect","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149180242","content_text":"随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？\n01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴\n三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：\n海量用户会将阿里平台上的商品链接、字节跳动（包含抖音）的内容链接分享过来，并因此带走巨大流量。\n我们尝试找到一些历史数据，来间接说明这些分享量、回流量的恐怖量级。\n\n这是2018年时，阿拉丁小程序指数对微信小程序平台上的各类信息，分别进行分享率和回流率大数据统计后，分享给《见实》的结论。\n以其中内容资讯为例，每100人阅读，就有2.6人分享到社交平台（分享率），每次分享带回6.91个流量（回流率）。每100人购买商品，会有0.68个用户分享商品链接至社交平台，每次分享带回1.70个流量。\n这些数据看起来一般，但如果乘以字节跳动和阿里巴巴的巨大体量，将会是一个让所有行业绝对仰望的数字。\n《见实》尝试从畅销书《小群效应》中找到一张图表来辅助说明。这根曲线通常用来解读：\n在现在社交网络中，最热门现象和服务会占据所在行业80%-90%以上用户目光。处于社交网络头部区域的数百家企业，会获得绝大部分社交红利，这是非常典型的“幂律曲线”。\n分享也是如此。记忆中，2015年前排名头部前三的企业，仅在一天时间中被用户分享到腾讯系的信息量，就超过1100万条。\n六年后的今天，三大平台互向对方开放后，字节跳动和阿里巴巴每天可不止1100万信息量分享到微信，真实量级或会数倍于此。这么庞大分享量，不论是乘以6.91回流率，还是1.70回流率，都足够开心。\n因为是免费的。\n因为对阿里和字节来说是额外、直接增长的。\n因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。尤其当这两大平台重大事件、重大活动（如双11、618）时，当这两大平台持续优化各种分享文案时，回流和转化数据更会以数倍上涨。\n无论如何，整个腾讯（尤其是微信），向外界平台分流的第一、第二名，一定会变成字节跳动（甚至可能抖音和今日头条分据前二）、阿里巴巴（如果拆分，则天猫和淘宝、淘特可能占据接下来的第三名到第五名）。\n不得不提一句：\n用户时间和注意力是有限的，不论是分享信息，还是点击阅读和参与活动。\n当阿里巴巴和字节跳动冲入到社交网络大盘子时，对于其他公司恐怕就不是那么开心了。因为蛋糕的最大份，被直接切走了。\n02、抖音电商和阿里交易额上扬\n刚才描述了社交网络（微信）回流量的庞大，我们特意没有提及社交对电商订单转化带来的影响，是因为这个数量同样诱人。\n几组基础数据可以先用来参考：\n- 大平均上，每两个分享到社交网络中的商品链接，就有一个会转化订单。\n作为对比，过去在社交电商类社区中，每100个浏览行为可以产生7次订单转化。\n- 按照腾讯2021年半年度财报所公布数据，小程序交易额继续以100%速度上涨，今年全年交易额或远超3.2万亿人民币。\n万亿规模是一个非常庞大的难以跃升的门槛，如快手最新财报就显示，其电商交易总额为人民币1454亿元。而近日行业传言，抖音电商将跨过一年万亿成交总额门槛。\n在越过万亿级别的平台中，除去微信小程序总交易额、抖音电商，还有拼多多。2020年度财报显示，该平台在当年交易总额（GMV）近1.67万亿，较2019年的10066亿元同比增长66%。\n淘宝联盟当下产生交易额暂时查询不到，2020年5月28日时，淘宝曾对外称，希望加速实现“三年内达到1万亿的目标”。\n当微信的链接大门打开，意味着抖音电商、阿里巴巴的交易额将会获得巨大增长。他们将有可能从小程序3.2万亿体量和拼多多1.67万亿体量中，直接撕走一大块。\n尤其是抖音电商，受益最大。\n03、抖音系APP下载受益\n娱乐系视频内容在社交网络中从来最受欢迎。从内容到下载的路径，也是最简单直接、最为通透。\n《见实》援引《小群效应》中的一张图，来说明这类APP下载转化比例：\n\n这张图并非是抖音的社交下载数据，而是来自此前某一款新创APP的后台数据截图。只是和抖音类似，同为娱乐属性。从表中可见，几乎是每一次分享，都会带来接近一次的下载和注册新增。\n在没有开放链接的情况下，抖音视频都顽强体现在无数微信群中。参照上述下载比例，大开放后字节系中包括抖音、西瓜等在内的APP下载增量、用户注册增量仍会继续增长。刚才一组话我们甚至可以直接复用：\n因为是免费的。\n因为对字节来说是额外、直接增长的。\n因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。尤其当有重大事件、优质爆款内容产生时，当字节系持续优化各种分享文案时，APP下载转化数据仍会继续上升。\n04、私域电商会受益\n如果链接网址大开放了，抖音和阿里巴巴会继续屏蔽“微信”这个关键词、依然禁止用户关注商家的微信吗？\n答案显然不会。业界正在感受着有关部门打通互联障碍的决心。如果是这样，那么私域电商会极大受益，企业会十分开心。\n过去不互通时，企业都在通过快递、红包等形式，顽强吸引着用户关注商家微信，沉淀到私域流量池中进行长期维护、持续复购转化。\n回顾历史，私域虽在微信生态落地生根，却是阿里巴巴商家催生出来的玩法。\n现在，当允许商家在阿里巴巴和抖音上关联微信或企业微信时，私域电商会继续增长。企业可以将更多财力和人力投入到私域运营中去，因此运营成本、广告成本反而会更低，利润上升。\n此外，关系链对电商持续施加的影响，注定了用户更加相信“信任”、“好友”。\n私域电商会获得更大发展。\n而且，现在抖音已经迅速布局私域，阿里巴巴重度布局私域各类基础设施的日子也不会远了。一旦阿里再进入，更多红利会释放给到各类品牌企业。\n微信小程序GMV虽然早期会受到一定影响，长期看，基础更坚实，交易额规模仍然会稳步增长。\n受益的，会是无数品牌企业。\n腾讯和微信也将大受益。更多品牌和用户之间的关系，将沉淀在微信私域中。\n同样是2021年度上半年财报中，腾讯几乎在猛夸私域，是因为借助私域这根线，腾讯在广告、云、智慧零售、支付等等一系列重要市场中，获得了极大提升。\n05、可能的平台调整\n动辄就是万亿电商规模，动辄就是每天数以千万级用户流动，三大平台之间怎么会不谨慎对待？\n首先是不必担心平台的小动作。这在有关部门的发声中早就严厉预警：\n“要求企业按照整改要求，务实推动分步骤、分阶段得到解决。下一步，一是加强行政指导，对整改不到位的企业督促落实；二是加强监督检查，通过多种方式确保问题整改到位；三是对整改不彻底的企业，处罚一批典型违规企业。”\n三大平台推出的可能的新规则，或会有几个：\n一是付费接口会诞生。超过一定调用数量的接口，需要付费，这对大平台来说其实是很小的支出，估计会欣然接受。\n二是在接口调用权限有明显分级。这其实已是现状，如许多新应用，当分享量在短时间内超过一定数量后，会被自然限制，直到第二天再度解锁。\n三是现有规则之下，许多标准和要求会由用户来掌控。如投诉量超过一定数量或比例后，接口调用权限会下降（比如每天分享次数由千万级下降到百万级、万级）；用户也可以要求去重显示某些链接，如某一类链接频繁出现在自己面前时，要求不再重复出现。\n四是三大平台对于灰色应用、灰色账号、灰色行为的打击，会越加严厉。\n最后简单看，三大平台各自受益不同角度。且打通后，在这些平台上的企业运营会变得更便利，不再需要想尽一切办法去规避平台禁令。运营成本下降，利润上升。跨平台运营这件事，或会变成一个新的大生意。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891631475,"gmtCreate":1628385214697,"gmtModify":1703505571226,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;?","listText":"&nbsp;?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891631475","repostId":"2157497292","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2157497292","pubTimestamp":1628383863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2157497292?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-08 08:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"犀牛财经早报：阿里回应“女员工被侵害” 林园回应“怒怼投资人”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2157497292","media":"GPLP犀牛财经","summary":"林园回应称，这是对他言论的误读。林园表示，现场没有投资者对他的业绩提出质疑，因此不存在“怒怼客户”，只是主动提前提示风险。阿里回应“女员工被侵害”：决不容忍 内部成立调查组 涉嫌员工已停职调查GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：针对网传“阿里巴巴女员工被侵害”一事，阿里巴巴官方回应称：决不容忍，全力配合警方，涉嫌员工已停职接受警方调查。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>作者：</strong><strong>橘颂</strong></p><p><strong>来源：GPLP犀牛财经（ID:gplpcn）</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210808085103965d1977xh9ch7w2pi\"/><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>证券将成中国首家外资全资控股证券公司</strong></p><p>GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：证监会已对摩根大通证券（中国）有限公司控股股东——摩根大通国际金融有限公司受让5家内资股东所持股权，成为摩根大通证券（中国）唯一股东的事项准予备案。摩根大通证券（中国）将成为中国首家外资全资控股的证券公司。</p><p><strong>外资独资公募富达基金获批设立</strong></p><p>GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：富达基金获批设立，成为国内第二家获批的外资独资公募，标志着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">中国资本</a>市场对外开放仍在稳步推进。据悉，路博迈、范达、联博、施罗德等多家外资机构也正在排队申请公募基金牌照。</p><p><strong>林园回应“怒怼投资者”：外界误读 本意是提示风险</strong></p><p>GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：民间派百亿私募大佬林园在一场线上路演中“怒怼客户”的消息引发争议。林园回应称，这是对他言论的误读。“这场直播的对象是第三方机构的销售员工及私募基金合格投资者”，他的本意是想在事前提示风险，“丑话说在前头”，提示所有的第三方销售员工，不要硬卖基金，一定要让客户对风险有充分的心理预期和敬畏。林园表示，现场没有投资者对他的业绩提出质疑，因此不存在“怒怼客户”，只是主动提前提示风险。</p><p><strong>8家券商和18位保荐代表人领罚单</strong></p><p>GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：据证券时报，证监会集中公布了二季度以来，证监会系统对投行业务采取的行政监管措施、自律惩戒措施，共有13条行政监管举措，8家券商和18位保荐代表人领罚单，涉及的机构有安信证券、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002797\">第一创业</a>证券承销保荐、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">东北证券</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">华西证券</a>、宏信证券、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">海通证券</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">国海证券</a>。此轮领罚单的券商，和债券业务、首发（IPO）保荐业务把关不严有关。</p><p><strong>阿里回应“女员工被侵害”：决不容忍 内部成立调查组 涉嫌员工已停职调查</strong></p><p>GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：针对网传“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>女员工被侵害”一事，阿里巴巴官方回应称：决不容忍，全力配合警方，涉嫌员工已停职接受警方调查。同时，阿里巴巴内部已由蒋芳牵头成立独立调查组，对此事和事发后在公司内举报全过程进行全面调查，并向全体员工公布调查结果。</p><p><strong>荣芯16.66亿元拍得德淮半导体，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>半导体未出价</strong></p><p>GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>破产拍卖平台信息，荣芯半导体成功以16.66亿元人民币拍得半导体制造企业德淮半导体有限公司整体<span>资产</span>。据悉，参与竞拍的买方中，除荣芯外，还包括近期IPO申请已获受理，计划登陆创业板的比亚迪半导体。比亚迪半导体证实，“公司报名，但未实际参与竞拍。”</p><p><strong>前海开源子公司新三板资管计划纠纷案二审改判，10名投资者均获得赔偿</strong></p><p>GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：深圳市中级人民法院日前针对前海开源子公司新三板资管计划纠纷作出二审判决，一审未获得法院支持的7位原告暨投资者即将获得赔偿。此前，10名原告秉持同样的诉讼原因和请求，但由于风险评估结果的不同，一审仅3人获得了法院支持、拿到赔偿。对于二审判决结果，前海开源资产最新回应表示，“公司尊重司法裁判规则，但是对于此次二审判决的结果，在理解和尊重投资者诉求的同时，会继续以法律手段维护自身的合法权益。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>犀牛财经早报：阿里回应“女员工被侵害” 林园回应“怒怼投资人”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n犀牛财经早报：阿里回应“女员工被侵害” 林园回应“怒怼投资人”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-08 08:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108080851067c2b04b6&s=b><strong>GPLP犀牛财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：橘颂来源：GPLP犀牛财经（ID:gplpcn）摩根大通证券将成中国首家外资全资控股证券公司GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：证监会已对摩根大通证券（中国）有限公司控股股东——摩根大通国际金融有限公司受让5家内资股东所持股权，成为摩根大通证券（中国）唯一股东的事项准予备案。摩根大通证券（中国）将成为中国首家外资全资控股的证券公司。外资独资公募富达基金获批设立GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：富达基金...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108080851067c2b04b6&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98a08f234fb3dfe04b5578614dea292","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108080851067c2b04b6&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2157497292","content_text":"作者：橘颂来源：GPLP犀牛财经（ID:gplpcn）摩根大通证券将成中国首家外资全资控股证券公司GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：证监会已对摩根大通证券（中国）有限公司控股股东——摩根大通国际金融有限公司受让5家内资股东所持股权，成为摩根大通证券（中国）唯一股东的事项准予备案。摩根大通证券（中国）将成为中国首家外资全资控股的证券公司。外资独资公募富达基金获批设立GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：富达基金获批设立，成为国内第二家获批的外资独资公募，标志着中国资本市场对外开放仍在稳步推进。据悉，路博迈、范达、联博、施罗德等多家外资机构也正在排队申请公募基金牌照。林园回应“怒怼投资者”：外界误读 本意是提示风险GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：民间派百亿私募大佬林园在一场线上路演中“怒怼客户”的消息引发争议。林园回应称，这是对他言论的误读。“这场直播的对象是第三方机构的销售员工及私募基金合格投资者”，他的本意是想在事前提示风险，“丑话说在前头”，提示所有的第三方销售员工，不要硬卖基金，一定要让客户对风险有充分的心理预期和敬畏。林园表示，现场没有投资者对他的业绩提出质疑，因此不存在“怒怼客户”，只是主动提前提示风险。8家券商和18位保荐代表人领罚单GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：据证券时报，证监会集中公布了二季度以来，证监会系统对投行业务采取的行政监管措施、自律惩戒措施，共有13条行政监管举措，8家券商和18位保荐代表人领罚单，涉及的机构有安信证券、第一创业证券承销保荐、东北证券、华西证券、宏信证券、海通证券、国金证券和国海证券。此轮领罚单的券商，和债券业务、首发（IPO）保荐业务把关不严有关。阿里回应“女员工被侵害”：决不容忍 内部成立调查组 涉嫌员工已停职调查GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：针对网传“阿里巴巴女员工被侵害”一事，阿里巴巴官方回应称：决不容忍，全力配合警方，涉嫌员工已停职接受警方调查。同时，阿里巴巴内部已由蒋芳牵头成立独立调查组，对此事和事发后在公司内举报全过程进行全面调查，并向全体员工公布调查结果。荣芯16.66亿元拍得德淮半导体，比亚迪半导体未出价GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：据京东破产拍卖平台信息，荣芯半导体成功以16.66亿元人民币拍得半导体制造企业德淮半导体有限公司整体资产。据悉，参与竞拍的买方中，除荣芯外，还包括近期IPO申请已获受理，计划登陆创业板的比亚迪半导体。比亚迪半导体证实，“公司报名，但未实际参与竞拍。”前海开源子公司新三板资管计划纠纷案二审改判，10名投资者均获得赔偿GPLP犀牛财经8月8日消息：深圳市中级人民法院日前针对前海开源子公司新三板资管计划纠纷作出二审判决，一审未获得法院支持的7位原告暨投资者即将获得赔偿。此前，10名原告秉持同样的诉讼原因和请求，但由于风险评估结果的不同，一审仅3人获得了法院支持、拿到赔偿。对于二审判决结果，前海开源资产最新回应表示，“公司尊重司法裁判规则，但是对于此次二审判决的结果，在理解和尊重投资者诉求的同时，会继续以法律手段维护自身的合法权益。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805278929,"gmtCreate":1627887789361,"gmtModify":1703497227453,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805278929","repostId":"1161681018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161681018","pubTimestamp":1627885510,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161681018?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 14:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克尬吹特斯拉：推出Autopilot是为拯救酒驾","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161681018","media":"新智元","summary":"特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n\n「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Aut","content":"<blockquote>\n 特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n</blockquote>\n<p>「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Autopilot功能的特斯拉睡觉，从而发生车祸甚至导致自行车乘员伤亡（当然，车主没有受伤）」。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/871b555295f95cda5282c189aa3fa62d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>马斯克又在Twitter上大放厥词。</p>\n<p>随后，他还不忘「补刀」：「这位睡着的驾驶员居然污蔑是由于我们车上的味道导致他睡着的。真是难以接受」。</p>\n<p>莫非在发推之前刚刚High了一下？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50bb99a934a7f2b9905c2bdb2abbf6dd\" tg-width=\"290\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉拯救酒驾</p>\n<p>马斯克发推是与一个博主进行的互动。后者分享了一条挪威特斯拉Model S的视频。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/650e611cf06761ab710e43e54e163d8d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n 挪威特斯拉车主开车时遭遇昏迷，特斯拉自动驾驶仪检测到后，减速并停了下来，以便急救中心进行救援\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8002f675562790eb456e55ca19f303ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>视频显示，一台Model S在公路上行驶，但是24岁的驾驶员正在呼呼大睡（这似乎不是第一起了），但车辆侦测到异常状态后，自动停了下来并打开了双闪。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f7f0e2761ec57a3b5f7735c1dd4714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而，挪威警方在随后的官方公告中表示，这位驾驶员涉嫌酒驾，已经进行了取证。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e076b3e1ecfc172079013bfc14cc68ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"884\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n 一辆特斯拉停在隧道里。原来是一个24岁的男子在车轮后面睡着了。他也喝醉了，但顽固地否认开车。\n</blockquote>\n<p>特斯拉的支持者认为特斯拉的Autopilot系统在其中起了相当正面的作用：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e3a32703b5860c97d4863ad238db9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但也有持不同意见的：「特斯拉应该由于允许酒驾被起诉！」</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ac722d0063b9b0cd9ae901c6b048c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外还有这位不知是支持者还是特斯拉的高端黑：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4105cb011f06a81ae38364a39555b744\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n 我选择特斯拉就是因为我可以开着它疲劳驾驶\n</blockquote>\n<p>Autopilot：驾驶辅助系统的开创者</p>\n<p>在2015年，特斯拉第一次通过OTA的方式为Model S推送的Autopilot辅助驾驶系统。</p>\n<p>在摄像头的协助下，系统可以自动控制转向，从而让车辆保持在车道线内行驶。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4c06c526ff8b5ce40acdf80d9debb3\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Autopilot是一款L2级辅助驾驶系统，意味着它可以在特定条件下帮助车主完成基本的驾驶任务，但并不是完全自动驾驶功能。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa62b06038e756ce6b0e34adc47de01\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这在当时引起了轰动：除了自动泊车以外，当时还没有一款车能够在正常道路行驶时自动控制方向盘。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8800a9ddbf0a6a7e0c3866d1d4ad14e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>依靠车身上的8枚摄像头形成360°环绕，另外还有1个前雷达再加12个毫米波雷达传感器，令特斯拉在复杂路况能够实现自动辅助转向。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d4523ca2f904ae2ed0a49824ccf1071\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>先后与Mobileye和NVIDIA合作之后，在2019年4月，特斯拉推出了自研芯片的FSD（Full-Self -Driving）系统。</p>\n<p>特斯拉表示，虽然现在还需要驾驶员时时监控，但FSD计算机能够提供更智能性能和控制。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dd384c7fde1d8bcdb37d3382ee76967\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而最近在美国上线的FSD 9.0则抛弃了毫米波雷达，完全采用摄像头实现所有场景下的辅助驾驶功能。</p>\n<p>相比之前的版本，堪称革命性的变化：</p>\n<p>UI变得更加像一台Robotaxi，并且把之前FSD在高速公路上自动变线、超车甚至是路口转弯等功能搬到了城市路况中。</p>\n<p>其中，十字路口自动转向也得到了实现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4e4e86ad72d4b0c80b1c811dec28a7\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在今年的CVPR大会自动驾驶的workshop中，特斯拉AI主管Andrej Karpathy在介绍特斯拉基于摄像头实现自动驾驶的方案。</p>\n<p>他表示自家的摄像头不仅成像性能出色，而且加上神经网络算法，完全抛开各种雷达毫无问题。</p>\n<p>在「影子模式」下，系统还能够自动学习人类的操作习惯，以及在各种场景下的应对方法。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2235d729f69255ce095c291b4553b973\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>看得更准，反应更快，所以在安全性上「硅脑」比人脑可靠多了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14290934085a96563217d86df8c40ace\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>依靠世界各地行驶的超百万台车辆，特斯拉从中能够收集海量的数据，从而协助他们在自动驾驶的道路上狂奔。</p>\n<p>不容否认的是，自Autopilot亮相之后，特斯拉带动了全球汽车界L2级智能驾驶技术的普及。迄今特斯拉仍然在智能驾驶领域处于领先地位。</p>\n<p>Autopilot安全吗？</p>\n<p>关于Autopilot系统，人们向来对其褒贬不一。</p>\n<p>根据特斯拉官方公布的车辆安全报告显示，激活Autopilot功能之后，特斯拉平均每345万英里发生一起事故，仅使用特斯拉主动安全系统的车型，平均每205万英里发生一起事故。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca3cc1318c003b28002ca39edcdde8cf\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport</p>\n<p>但是根据美国国家高速交通安全协会NHTSA最近的数据表明，全美在册的汽车平均每行驶48.4万英里就会发生一起事故。</p>\n<p>Autopilot系统可以主动识别与前方车辆的距离，并且在紧急情况下遇到道路前方的车辆、行人以及其他交通参与者时，可以自动紧急制动来避免事故的发生。从而可以避免在日常环境中碰到的绝大多数类型的交通事故。</p>\n<p>但是在特斯拉发生的几起著名的事故中，Autopilot也被认为难辞其咎。</p>\n<p>2018年3月23日，在加州山景城发生的一起事故中，38岁的苹果工程师黄伟伦的特斯拉2017款Model X在AP开启状态下撞上了高速公路的隔离带，黄伟伦在送往医院后不治身亡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/336574734048f90710371a44ed6b98d4\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>调查显示车辆的Autopilot自动驾驶功能在车辆撞向障碍物之前没有采取刹车操作。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace6acaf95b699dd4aa07d310b3af51b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2020年3月，台湾省的高速公路上，一台白色Model 3直接撞向了一台横在道路中央的白色集装箱卡车。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86eb4a8c519fd8407437c4058c5f7af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这台车同样开启了Autopilot功能，但是系统由于没有辨认出前方的障碍物，导致对于白色集装箱没有任何反应直接撞了上去。所幸驾驶员没有受伤。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2fe517e1bceb3330eb357a9945bc6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2021年5月19日，在西雅图北郊的阿灵顿，一名副警长正在调查一起汽车与电线杆相撞事故，当时他驾驶的警车——一辆福特探险者就停在旁边的路肩上。</p>\n<p>没有想到的是，一辆2015款特斯拉Model S.从后面直冲上来，撞上了警车的左侧，警车「严重损坏」。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13fb9eaee7d53392c672855d4cd7a874\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>所幸，副警长在处理事故，并不在车里，这才避免了更严重的事故发生。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2ba7aa19046446ae152cd0c8e3786e\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉驾驶员称事故发生时，Autopilot功能处于开启状态，他以为特斯拉会减速并自行绕开前面的警车。</p>\n<p>Autopilot给车主们关上了一扇门，却打开了另一扇窗……</p>\n<p>尽管特斯拉一再声明，Autopilot属于驾驶辅助功能，并且要求驾驶员将注意力集中在道路上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b1529850b369237b1b26951a4efa30\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是对于车辆本身而言，对于驾驶员却没有这么多强制性的约束：它们仅仅依靠方向盘的扭矩传感器来监控驾驶员。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1c2159fd350f76048cc1bd2abe02239\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如果长时间没有转动方向盘，就被认为是驾驶员没有控制车辆，从而实现自动减速停车。</p>\n<p>不过这也给各种驾驶员带来了「作弊」的空间，比如：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/255bc4a5bab8274db8cbfaadb2d31b00\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>加上Autopilot系统自身的局限性，在诸如高速公路的路况下倘若发生没有识别前方障碍物的情况，发生的事故往往都是更加危险的——因为车辆没有采取任何操作。</p>\n<p>事实上，在文章开头的那起「酒驾」事件也颇为侥幸：当事人驾驶的是一台老款的Model S，它并没有使用更加聪明的FSD系统，仅仅凭借着方向盘的扭矩传感器制止了事故的发生。</p>\n<p>假如他在方向盘上绑个重物，那可能又是一起「特斯拉杀人」的事件。</p>\n<p>如今很多其他品牌的车型也具备了相近的功能，并且还能够通过摄像头等其他传感元件来监控驾驶员。</p>\n<p>但这同样意味着特斯拉发生的事故，很可能在其他具备L2级辅助驾驶功能的车型上复现。</p>\n<p>智能驾驶技术的发展，可能需要科研人员花费巨大精力在与人类驾驶员斗智斗勇这件事上。</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克尬吹特斯拉：推出Autopilot是为拯救酒驾</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克尬吹特斯拉：推出Autopilot是为拯救酒驾\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 14:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1337120903403520><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n\n「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Autopilot功能的特斯拉睡觉，从而发生车祸甚至导致自行车乘员伤亡（当然，车主没有受伤）」。\n\n马斯克又在Twitter上大放厥词。\n随后，他还不忘「补刀」：「这位睡着的驾驶员居然污蔑是由于我们车上的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1337120903403520\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1337120903403520","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161681018","content_text":"特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n\n「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Autopilot功能的特斯拉睡觉，从而发生车祸甚至导致自行车乘员伤亡（当然，车主没有受伤）」。\n\n马斯克又在Twitter上大放厥词。\n随后，他还不忘「补刀」：「这位睡着的驾驶员居然污蔑是由于我们车上的味道导致他睡着的。真是难以接受」。\n莫非在发推之前刚刚High了一下？\n\n特斯拉拯救酒驾\n马斯克发推是与一个博主进行的互动。后者分享了一条挪威特斯拉Model S的视频。\n\n\n 挪威特斯拉车主开车时遭遇昏迷，特斯拉自动驾驶仪检测到后，减速并停了下来，以便急救中心进行救援\n\n\n视频显示，一台Model S在公路上行驶，但是24岁的驾驶员正在呼呼大睡（这似乎不是第一起了），但车辆侦测到异常状态后，自动停了下来并打开了双闪。\n\n然而，挪威警方在随后的官方公告中表示，这位驾驶员涉嫌酒驾，已经进行了取证。\n\n\n 一辆特斯拉停在隧道里。原来是一个24岁的男子在车轮后面睡着了。他也喝醉了，但顽固地否认开车。\n\n特斯拉的支持者认为特斯拉的Autopilot系统在其中起了相当正面的作用：\n\n但也有持不同意见的：「特斯拉应该由于允许酒驾被起诉！」\n\n另外还有这位不知是支持者还是特斯拉的高端黑：\n\n\n 我选择特斯拉就是因为我可以开着它疲劳驾驶\n\nAutopilot：驾驶辅助系统的开创者\n在2015年，特斯拉第一次通过OTA的方式为Model S推送的Autopilot辅助驾驶系统。\n在摄像头的协助下，系统可以自动控制转向，从而让车辆保持在车道线内行驶。\n\nAutopilot是一款L2级辅助驾驶系统，意味着它可以在特定条件下帮助车主完成基本的驾驶任务，但并不是完全自动驾驶功能。\n\n这在当时引起了轰动：除了自动泊车以外，当时还没有一款车能够在正常道路行驶时自动控制方向盘。\n\n依靠车身上的8枚摄像头形成360°环绕，另外还有1个前雷达再加12个毫米波雷达传感器，令特斯拉在复杂路况能够实现自动辅助转向。\n\n先后与Mobileye和NVIDIA合作之后，在2019年4月，特斯拉推出了自研芯片的FSD（Full-Self -Driving）系统。\n特斯拉表示，虽然现在还需要驾驶员时时监控，但FSD计算机能够提供更智能性能和控制。\n\n而最近在美国上线的FSD 9.0则抛弃了毫米波雷达，完全采用摄像头实现所有场景下的辅助驾驶功能。\n相比之前的版本，堪称革命性的变化：\nUI变得更加像一台Robotaxi，并且把之前FSD在高速公路上自动变线、超车甚至是路口转弯等功能搬到了城市路况中。\n其中，十字路口自动转向也得到了实现。\n\n在今年的CVPR大会自动驾驶的workshop中，特斯拉AI主管Andrej Karpathy在介绍特斯拉基于摄像头实现自动驾驶的方案。\n他表示自家的摄像头不仅成像性能出色，而且加上神经网络算法，完全抛开各种雷达毫无问题。\n在「影子模式」下，系统还能够自动学习人类的操作习惯，以及在各种场景下的应对方法。\n\n看得更准，反应更快，所以在安全性上「硅脑」比人脑可靠多了。\n\n依靠世界各地行驶的超百万台车辆，特斯拉从中能够收集海量的数据，从而协助他们在自动驾驶的道路上狂奔。\n不容否认的是，自Autopilot亮相之后，特斯拉带动了全球汽车界L2级智能驾驶技术的普及。迄今特斯拉仍然在智能驾驶领域处于领先地位。\nAutopilot安全吗？\n关于Autopilot系统，人们向来对其褒贬不一。\n根据特斯拉官方公布的车辆安全报告显示，激活Autopilot功能之后，特斯拉平均每345万英里发生一起事故，仅使用特斯拉主动安全系统的车型，平均每205万英里发生一起事故。\n\nhttps://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport\n但是根据美国国家高速交通安全协会NHTSA最近的数据表明，全美在册的汽车平均每行驶48.4万英里就会发生一起事故。\nAutopilot系统可以主动识别与前方车辆的距离，并且在紧急情况下遇到道路前方的车辆、行人以及其他交通参与者时，可以自动紧急制动来避免事故的发生。从而可以避免在日常环境中碰到的绝大多数类型的交通事故。\n但是在特斯拉发生的几起著名的事故中，Autopilot也被认为难辞其咎。\n2018年3月23日，在加州山景城发生的一起事故中，38岁的苹果工程师黄伟伦的特斯拉2017款Model X在AP开启状态下撞上了高速公路的隔离带，黄伟伦在送往医院后不治身亡。\n\n调查显示车辆的Autopilot自动驾驶功能在车辆撞向障碍物之前没有采取刹车操作。\n\n在2020年3月，台湾省的高速公路上，一台白色Model 3直接撞向了一台横在道路中央的白色集装箱卡车。\n\n这台车同样开启了Autopilot功能，但是系统由于没有辨认出前方的障碍物，导致对于白色集装箱没有任何反应直接撞了上去。所幸驾驶员没有受伤。\n\n2021年5月19日，在西雅图北郊的阿灵顿，一名副警长正在调查一起汽车与电线杆相撞事故，当时他驾驶的警车——一辆福特探险者就停在旁边的路肩上。\n没有想到的是，一辆2015款特斯拉Model S.从后面直冲上来，撞上了警车的左侧，警车「严重损坏」。\n\n所幸，副警长在处理事故，并不在车里，这才避免了更严重的事故发生。\n\n特斯拉驾驶员称事故发生时，Autopilot功能处于开启状态，他以为特斯拉会减速并自行绕开前面的警车。\nAutopilot给车主们关上了一扇门，却打开了另一扇窗……\n尽管特斯拉一再声明，Autopilot属于驾驶辅助功能，并且要求驾驶员将注意力集中在道路上。\n\n但是对于车辆本身而言，对于驾驶员却没有这么多强制性的约束：它们仅仅依靠方向盘的扭矩传感器来监控驾驶员。\n\n如果长时间没有转动方向盘，就被认为是驾驶员没有控制车辆，从而实现自动减速停车。\n不过这也给各种驾驶员带来了「作弊」的空间，比如：\n\n加上Autopilot系统自身的局限性，在诸如高速公路的路况下倘若发生没有识别前方障碍物的情况，发生的事故往往都是更加危险的——因为车辆没有采取任何操作。\n事实上，在文章开头的那起「酒驾」事件也颇为侥幸：当事人驾驶的是一台老款的Model 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