Terence_7099 personal page - To The Moon

Terence_7099

Terence_7099

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2023-12-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$

2023-10-26

tesla good must buy will up to $500 per share

2023-06-26

tiger woods and his dad and

2023-06-22

tiger woods and his dad got it from

2023-06-19

tiger woods and his dad and dad were going out

2023-06-16

tiger is the only one that has to be

2023-06-15

Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this

2023-06-14

come and play tiger game tonight and get some

2023-06-13

Tiger new game. Good app for trading.

@TigerEvents:Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999

2023-06-13

@tiger nice. Tiger app

2023-04-14

tiger woods and his dad and dad were in

2023-04-13

tiger woods are in town for some time today at work

2023-04-12

tiger woods and his dad and dad were in town for some reason

2023-04-11

Tiger Woods has a long way in his life and is the most popular golfer of all of his years on this list of winners and

2023-04-10

Tigers were a great game in my book but theyare a little too far for the team that is playing right away in their own

2023-04-09

Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this year and has won three of

2023-04-06

tiget good nice power

2023-04-05

Tiger game. Must try up. Good to play

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2023-03-22

hhh

杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖

2023-03-08

👍

“新美联储传声筒”：鲍威尔或警告美联储的加息幅度将超预期

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Good app for trading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186874117427280","repostId":"9970552986","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970552986,"gmtCreate":1684749089245,"gmtModify":1686052573124,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999","htmlText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! 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the Masters this year and has won three of","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946460156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948404806,"gmtCreate":1680756652505,"gmtModify":1680756657472,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiget good nice power","listText":"tiget good nice power","text":"tiget good nice 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Good to play&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger game.&nbsp; Must try up. Good to play&nbsp;","text":"Tiger game. Must try up. Good to play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948825325","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943231046,"gmtCreate":1679470633986,"gmtModify":1679470637585,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hhh","listText":"hhh","text":"hhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943231046","repostId":"1100480684","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100480684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679455925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100480684?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-22 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100480684","media":"金十数据","summary":"在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。</blockquote><p>全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。</p><p>加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但<b>投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会</b>，其影响力更加不容小觑。<b>研究发现，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的市场波动比他的前任高出三倍，而且他往往还能神奇地扭转市场对FOMC声明的最初反应。</b></p><p>在过去一年的六次新闻发布会期间，标普500指数的涨跌幅度超过1%，市值波动达到3000亿美元。鲍威尔主持的新闻发布往往会有两个特点。</p><blockquote>第一，在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。自2011年以来一直如此，但鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会尤其如此，这表明新闻发布会在塑造近期市场预期方面发挥了巨大作用。</blockquote><blockquote>第二，在新冠疫情大流行之前，新闻发布会倾向于强化FOMC的声明，市场在新闻发布会期间的走势与最初对声明做出的反应一致。然而，自新冠疫情大流行开始以来，股票和债券市场在新闻发布会期间的走势往往与市场对FOMC声明的最初反应相反。这种逆转与鲍威尔在讲话中的措辞有关系。</blockquote><p>图1展示了鲍威尔及其前任耶伦召开新闻发布会当天标普500指数回报率的波动情况。可以看出鲍威尔任期内的波动性要大得多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad8758b93fdf1e7013c31db3a1ba47b\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>图2总结了最近三位美联储主席在新闻发布会期间市场波动的升高情况。尽管在这三位主席召开的新闻发布会上，市场波动都会加剧，<b>但在鲍威尔任期内尤其明显：市场波动比前任主席任期内高出三倍</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a68b7309ffecfd3de0a34ad4b7c94d68\" tg-width=\"1111\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔的新闻发布会期间市场波动更加剧烈的一个解释可能是，在他的任期内，<b>宏观环境更加动荡</b>，其中包括疫情应对和随后的通胀抬头。此外，在FOMC声明发布后的几分钟内，不同主席任下的市场波动没有显著差异，<b>这表明鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的波动加剧并不是更令人惊讶的利率政策的结果</b>。</p><p>在伯南克和耶伦的领导下，美联储的新闻发布会通常会重申FOMC声明中传递的信息。如图3显示，在新闻发布会上，市场走势倾向于与FOMC发布声明后最初的走势一致。鲍威尔在新冠疫情前的会议上也是这样做的，但最近的会议却偏离了这一模式。自2020年3月以来，<b>市场在鲍威尔的新闻会议期间的走势往往与最初的走势相反</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d60b7f2c3e07ca9f5897b8a443d0ce4\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>对于市场逆转的一种解释是，市场对FOMC最初的声明反应过度，因为它“倾向于倾听”。然而，通过分析鲍威尔最近几次新闻发布会上的问答文本，再将最近几次新闻发布会上的市场走势与鲍威尔使用的语言联系起来，可以发现，其中的原因不仅仅是市场潜在的过度反应。</b></p><p>例如，鲍威尔在2022年9月21日的新闻发布会上使用的语言，往往与FOMC声明中利好股市的部分有关，在此期间市场反弹，两年期国债收益率下降了近8个基点。而在2022年11月2日的会议上，他转向了明显更为负面的语言，在此期间股市下跌了近2%。</p><p>这些市场逆转表明，<b>FOMC的声明不再是美联储对利率指导的“最后决定”</b>。</p><p>图4展示了耶伦和鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会期间，两年期美国国债收益率的走势。在耶伦任期内，债市对FOMC声明的发布做出了迅速反应，并在新闻发布会后倾向于保持在这一水平附近。然而，在鲍威尔任期内，特别是在FOMC声明发布导致国债收益率上升的日子里，市场在新闻发布会上往往会逆转对FOMC声明发布的最初反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2fc971c6f1e881633a94a00f61804f\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这些模式表明，<b>美联储新闻发布会的角色正在转变，正变得越来越重要，而且并不总是直接重申FOMC的声明。这种变化可能是沟通策略不断发展的必然结果：鲍威尔每年举行的新闻发布会数量也比他的前任增加了一倍，FOMC声明的长度、复杂性和观点的多样性随着时间的推移也发生了变化。</b></p><p>还有一种可能的原因是，<b>新闻发布会允许主席强调自己的观点，并先于其他委员会成员提出FOMC讨论中未被FOMC声明捕捉、但市场认为具有重要意义的部分。</b>不过，偏离FOMC声明中的统一信息并导致市场波动加剧，这个结果可能与美联储的其他沟通目标不一致。股债市场的大幅波动显然与增加可预测性和减少不确定性的目标不相容。事实上，最近的会议在降低未来利率路径的不确定性方面不太成功。</p><p>最后一种可能性是，<b>将市场波动最小化的目标是错误的</b>。<b>一个“不太担心其行动对债市的直接影响的美联储或许能够在必要时更灵活地调整政策”。</b>换句话说，当FOMC能像今天这样快速了解经济状况时，也许正是需要一位愿意推动市场走势的美联储主席。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-22 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100480684","content_text":"美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会，其影响力更加不容小觑。研究发现，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的市场波动比他的前任高出三倍，而且他往往还能神奇地扭转市场对FOMC声明的最初反应。在过去一年的六次新闻发布会期间，标普500指数的涨跌幅度超过1%，市值波动达到3000亿美元。鲍威尔主持的新闻发布往往会有两个特点。第一，在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。自2011年以来一直如此，但鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会尤其如此，这表明新闻发布会在塑造近期市场预期方面发挥了巨大作用。第二，在新冠疫情大流行之前，新闻发布会倾向于强化FOMC的声明，市场在新闻发布会期间的走势与最初对声明做出的反应一致。然而，自新冠疫情大流行开始以来，股票和债券市场在新闻发布会期间的走势往往与市场对FOMC声明的最初反应相反。这种逆转与鲍威尔在讲话中的措辞有关系。图1展示了鲍威尔及其前任耶伦召开新闻发布会当天标普500指数回报率的波动情况。可以看出鲍威尔任期内的波动性要大得多。图2总结了最近三位美联储主席在新闻发布会期间市场波动的升高情况。尽管在这三位主席召开的新闻发布会上，市场波动都会加剧，但在鲍威尔任期内尤其明显：市场波动比前任主席任期内高出三倍。鲍威尔的新闻发布会期间市场波动更加剧烈的一个解释可能是，在他的任期内，宏观环境更加动荡，其中包括疫情应对和随后的通胀抬头。此外，在FOMC声明发布后的几分钟内，不同主席任下的市场波动没有显著差异，这表明鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的波动加剧并不是更令人惊讶的利率政策的结果。在伯南克和耶伦的领导下，美联储的新闻发布会通常会重申FOMC声明中传递的信息。如图3显示，在新闻发布会上，市场走势倾向于与FOMC发布声明后最初的走势一致。鲍威尔在新冠疫情前的会议上也是这样做的，但最近的会议却偏离了这一模式。自2020年3月以来，市场在鲍威尔的新闻会议期间的走势往往与最初的走势相反。对于市场逆转的一种解释是，市场对FOMC最初的声明反应过度，因为它“倾向于倾听”。然而，通过分析鲍威尔最近几次新闻发布会上的问答文本，再将最近几次新闻发布会上的市场走势与鲍威尔使用的语言联系起来，可以发现，其中的原因不仅仅是市场潜在的过度反应。例如，鲍威尔在2022年9月21日的新闻发布会上使用的语言，往往与FOMC声明中利好股市的部分有关，在此期间市场反弹，两年期国债收益率下降了近8个基点。而在2022年11月2日的会议上，他转向了明显更为负面的语言，在此期间股市下跌了近2%。这些市场逆转表明，FOMC的声明不再是美联储对利率指导的“最后决定”。图4展示了耶伦和鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会期间，两年期美国国债收益率的走势。在耶伦任期内，债市对FOMC声明的发布做出了迅速反应，并在新闻发布会后倾向于保持在这一水平附近。然而，在鲍威尔任期内，特别是在FOMC声明发布导致国债收益率上升的日子里，市场在新闻发布会上往往会逆转对FOMC声明发布的最初反应。这些模式表明，美联储新闻发布会的角色正在转变，正变得越来越重要，而且并不总是直接重申FOMC的声明。这种变化可能是沟通策略不断发展的必然结果：鲍威尔每年举行的新闻发布会数量也比他的前任增加了一倍，FOMC声明的长度、复杂性和观点的多样性随着时间的推移也发生了变化。还有一种可能的原因是，新闻发布会允许主席强调自己的观点，并先于其他委员会成员提出FOMC讨论中未被FOMC声明捕捉、但市场认为具有重要意义的部分。不过，偏离FOMC声明中的统一信息并导致市场波动加剧，这个结果可能与美联储的其他沟通目标不一致。股债市场的大幅波动显然与增加可预测性和减少不确定性的目标不相容。事实上，最近的会议在降低未来利率路径的不确定性方面不太成功。最后一种可能性是，将市场波动最小化的目标是错误的。一个“不太担心其行动对债市的直接影响的美联储或许能够在必要时更灵活地调整政策”。换句话说，当FOMC能像今天这样快速了解经济状况时，也许正是需要一位愿意推动市场走势的美联储主席。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949090990,"gmtCreate":1678228420610,"gmtModify":1678228424372,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949090990","repostId":"1145745223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145745223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678194660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145745223?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-07 21:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新美联储传声筒”：鲍威尔或警告美联储的加息幅度将超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145745223","media":"金十数据","summary":"面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？</b></blockquote><p>周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。</p><p>鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。<b>这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就利率政策发表讲话，</b>因为美联储将于本周六进入“缄默期”。</p><p>继去年11月和12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点后，美联储在上个月放慢了加息步伐。其上个月将利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%的区间，目的是继续给经济降温来减轻价格压力。</p><p>美联储一直试图通过加息来抑制投资、支出和招聘，加息会提高借贷成本，并可能压低股票和房地产等资产的价格。联邦基金利率影响着整个经济中的其他借贷成本。</p><p>去年12月，大多数美联储官员认为，<b>今年他们将把联邦基金利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年</b>。他们将在即将召开的3月议息会议上提交新的预测。</p><p>Timiraos称，在2月1日的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，如果经济如官员们预期的那样放缓，他们可能会在3月和5月的每次会议上加息25个基点。</p><p>但他也警告称，<b>如果经济表现出惊人的强劲势头，美联储可能会进一步加息</b>。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上说：</p><blockquote>“我们将仔细研究从现在到3月会议之间的数据，如果我们认为我们需要将利率提高到12月所说的水平之上，我们肯定会这么做。”</blockquote><p>自他发表上述言论以来，几份经济报告显示，<b>1月份的就业、消费者支出和通胀都有所上升</b>。此外，修正后的数据显示，<b>通胀和劳动力需求放缓的程度并不像去年底最初报告的那样。</b></p><p>因此，几位美联储官员表示，<b>他们今年的加息幅度可能会超过此前的预期</b>。三位地区联储主席表示，上个月他们本可以支持更大幅度的加息，可能将在即将召开的3月会议上支持更大幅度的加息。</p><p><b>近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期</b>。在美联储召开的上次会议上，利率期货市场的投资者预计，<b>美联储官员今年只会再将联邦基金利率上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息</b>。根据芝商所的数据，<b>周一，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。</b></p><p>Timiraos表示，<b>投资者将仔细分析鲍威尔的措辞，以寻找美联储是否可能像普遍预期的那样加息25个基点，或者他是否可能表示愿意加息50个基点的线索。</b></p><p>不过，Timiraos认为，<b>鲍威尔本周在引导市场方面可能会受到限制</b>，<b>因为两份受到广泛关注的经济报告将在他作证之后和下次会议之前发布</b>，这两份报告可能会影响官员们的审议。美国劳工部将于本周五公布2月非农就业报告，美国2月CPI报告将在下周公布。</p><p>美国1月份新增非农就业人数为51.7万，而失业率则降至3.4%，为53年来的最低水平，这一数字令经济学家感到震惊，他们原本预计就业岗位将放缓。周五的最新非农就业报告可能会提供一些线索，说明就业增长是昙花一现，还是经济正在加速的迹象。</p><p>对于通胀，去年年底通胀的下降趋势在1月份暂缓。根据美国商务部的PCE数据，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源项目后的年通胀率为4.7%，高于去年12月的4.6%。</p><p>因受到新冠疫情的打击，美联储曾将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平，但在过去12个月里，美联储加息的幅度超过了上世纪80年代初以来的任何时候。官员们已经放慢了加息的步伐，以观察其举措的效果。</p><p>周二的听证会是鲍威尔自去年6月美联储将联邦基金利率上调至1.5%至1.75%区间以来首次在国会露面。少数民主党议员一直淡化对通胀的担忧，他们警告鲍威尔不要加息过快或过高，并对美联储急于通过寻求增加失业率来减缓经济增长表示担忧。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-07 21:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6a36ceb193aa7f7b4a920e3a909ada","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145745223","content_text":"面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就利率政策发表讲话，因为美联储将于本周六进入“缄默期”。继去年11月和12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点后，美联储在上个月放慢了加息步伐。其上个月将利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%的区间，目的是继续给经济降温来减轻价格压力。美联储一直试图通过加息来抑制投资、支出和招聘，加息会提高借贷成本，并可能压低股票和房地产等资产的价格。联邦基金利率影响着整个经济中的其他借贷成本。去年12月，大多数美联储官员认为，今年他们将把联邦基金利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年。他们将在即将召开的3月议息会议上提交新的预测。Timiraos称，在2月1日的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，如果经济如官员们预期的那样放缓，他们可能会在3月和5月的每次会议上加息25个基点。但他也警告称，如果经济表现出惊人的强劲势头，美联储可能会进一步加息。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上说：“我们将仔细研究从现在到3月会议之间的数据，如果我们认为我们需要将利率提高到12月所说的水平之上，我们肯定会这么做。”自他发表上述言论以来，几份经济报告显示，1月份的就业、消费者支出和通胀都有所上升。此外，修正后的数据显示，通胀和劳动力需求放缓的程度并不像去年底最初报告的那样。因此，几位美联储官员表示，他们今年的加息幅度可能会超过此前的预期。三位地区联储主席表示，上个月他们本可以支持更大幅度的加息，可能将在即将召开的3月会议上支持更大幅度的加息。近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期。在美联储召开的上次会议上，利率期货市场的投资者预计，美联储官员今年只会再将联邦基金利率上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息。根据芝商所的数据，周一，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。Timiraos表示，投资者将仔细分析鲍威尔的措辞，以寻找美联储是否可能像普遍预期的那样加息25个基点，或者他是否可能表示愿意加息50个基点的线索。不过，Timiraos认为，鲍威尔本周在引导市场方面可能会受到限制，因为两份受到广泛关注的经济报告将在他作证之后和下次会议之前发布，这两份报告可能会影响官员们的审议。美国劳工部将于本周五公布2月非农就业报告，美国2月CPI报告将在下周公布。美国1月份新增非农就业人数为51.7万，而失业率则降至3.4%，为53年来的最低水平，这一数字令经济学家感到震惊，他们原本预计就业岗位将放缓。周五的最新非农就业报告可能会提供一些线索，说明就业增长是昙花一现，还是经济正在加速的迹象。对于通胀，去年年底通胀的下降趋势在1月份暂缓。根据美国商务部的PCE数据，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源项目后的年通胀率为4.7%，高于去年12月的4.6%。因受到新冠疫情的打击，美联储曾将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平，但在过去12个月里，美联储加息的幅度超过了上世纪80年代初以来的任何时候。官员们已经放慢了加息的步伐，以观察其举措的效果。周二的听证会是鲍威尔自去年6月美联储将联邦基金利率上调至1.5%至1.75%区间以来首次在国会露面。少数民主党议员一直淡化对通胀的担忧，他们警告鲍威尔不要加息过快或过高，并对美联储急于通过寻求增加失业率来减缓经济增长表示担忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":234472240578680,"gmtCreate":1698279967707,"gmtModify":1698279971955,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582091132450948","idStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tesla 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968087716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809777155,"gmtCreate":1627394932477,"gmtModify":1703489113614,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582091132450948","idStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809777155","repostId":"1109053454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109053454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627394793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109053454?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"吉姆·罗杰斯的危机应对手册","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109053454","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。\n\n\n来源丨巴伦周刊\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb340175a4c52ccc61fe1cd88143e62b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>来源丨巴伦周刊</b></p>\n<p><b>任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转</b></p>\n<p>危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？</p>\n<p>首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。</p>\n<p>让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。</p>\n<p>可见，对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。世界永远在变，从未停止。</p>\n<p>所以我才会一再主张每一个人都应该向历史学习，都应该敬畏历史。中国有句古话“以史为镜，可以知兴替”，就是这个意思。</p>\n<p>当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是十五年。有时也许是十年，有时也许是二十五年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔十到十五年，一次巨大的变化便会来临。这是一个大概率事件。</p>\n<p>举个例子。1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这在十年前的1981年几乎是不可想象的事情。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年时间，苏联这个所谓“红色帝国”便彻底消失了。受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的“终极胜利”，其结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的“历史终结论”。可区区十五年之后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家，却是一片欣欣向荣、蒸蒸日上的景象。特别是中国的强劲发展，甚至把欧美等发达国家从次贷危机的泥潭中拉了出来。</p>\n<p>由此，我可以断言，今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的，未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更加谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这一点。</p>\n<p>那么，常识反转的契机又是什么呢？简单，是危机。从某种意义上说，危机并不坏，甚至是一个好东西，是绝佳的机会。</p>\n<p>在汉语中，“危机”这个词是由“危”和“机”两个部分构成的，意味着危险与机会永远是一枚硬币的两面，如影随形、相辅相成。</p>\n<p>当报纸的“社会经济”版面被可怕的大字标题与危机的消息所覆盖时，你可能会本能地这样想：“上帝啊，这可真是太惨了！”可是，另一些人也许与你的想法不一样。他们会这样想：“感谢上苍，这简直是天赐良机！”</p>\n<p>不错。无论是“9·11”事件这样的人祸，还是“日本大海啸”这样的天灾，所有灾难对我们这个世界以及全人类来说都是令人悲伤的事情，可是，对投资家而言，这些危机也同时意味着机会。因为危机前后的世界，将有巨大的不同。驾驭这些不同，而不是被其吞没；主动出击，而不是被动等待，是成为人生赢家的必经之路。这才是真正的勇者和智者之所为。</p>\n<p><b>即便危机爆发也无须绝望</b></p>\n<p>要记住，即便在危机中失去一切，即便陷入沮丧与绝望的深渊，凤凰涅槃、绝处逢生的机会也永远存在。因为绝望越深、越重，机会来临时的幸福也便越沉、越满。事实上，这个世界上越成功的人物，曾经历过的绝望便越为深重，越难以忍受。从来如此，从无例外。</p>\n<p>所以，对那些经历危机而悲观厌世的人，我想这样说：“没关系，不要紧。无论发生了多坏的事，天也塌不下来。何止如此，十五年之后就会完全变天，那时就是你重生的机会。”</p>\n<p>没错，无论你的人生被危机如何摧残，也无论你的心情如何沮丧绝望，也要顽强地活下去。只要活着，就会迎来转机。这是人生常态，也是自然规律。正如中国那句古老的谚语所言：“留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。”</p>\n<p>我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。曾经有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择了自杀这条不归路；我本人也曾因离婚长期情绪低迷，而现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的十五年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。我的经历绝非个例。相同的人和事每天都在我们身边发生，只是你没有意识到罢了。</p>\n<p>事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对“十五年后自己的人生将截然不同”这一点一无所知。不妨想象一下：如果放弃自杀的念头，未来也许有一个极为精彩的人生在前方等着你也说不定。</p>\n<p>以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。如果他们不死，十五年后，当他们35岁的时候，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期望一下，等待一次。还是那句话，无论发生了什么事，也无论这件事带给你多大的摧残和打击，等一等，未来会不一样。</p>\n<p>以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘的时候，想必有许多人陷入了绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短的时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。掐指一算，正好十五年。</p>\n<p>美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的“大萧条”中失去一切而轻生，可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，便会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为1945年第二次世界大战结束时的美国，其国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。</p>\n<p>掐指一算，又是十五年。股神巴菲特有一句名言：“永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。”我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：“永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。”这不是安慰，是事实。</p>\n<p><b>应对危机的第一要务</b></p>\n<p>那么，应对危机的第一要务是什么呢？</p>\n<p>简单，要对这个世界正在发生什么有个清醒的认识。</p>\n<p>遗憾的是，绝大多数人做不到这一点。有太多的人即便周边发生了无数危机的征兆，也表现得无动于衷，不能做到积极地探寻这些征兆背后的深刻含意。所以说，一定要对这个世界的运行机制，以及由此导致的所有表象随时保持正确的敏感与清晰的理解。</p>\n<p>比如说，印度的金融体系到底发生了什么，必须探求所有征兆的蛛丝马迹。无论你发现了什么，看见了什么，一定要保持这样的思维和行为方式。特别需要注意的是，当你这样做的时候，千万不要试图咨询他人的意见。一定要保持独立性，切忌依赖他人。否则当问题发生的时候，就有你受的了——那些不会用自己的脑袋思考，只知道随他人意志起舞的人，一旦进展不顺，便会表现得彻底蒙圈，手足无措。</p>\n<p>所以说投资这码事，只适合选择自己熟悉的事、擅长的事。否则，买了自己都搞不懂的东西，万一有点什么差池，想不蒙圈都难。</p>\n<p>这就是所谓“不熟不做”的道理。</p>\n<p>所有人都喜欢“热点消息”“独家情报”。特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点“内部消息”，都希望从我嘴里说一句“哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！”可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。</p>\n<p>所以还是那句话：相信自己的脑袋，只在自己知道的东西、熟悉的东西身上花钱。这样做就对了。</p>\n<p>不妨这样想问题：假设你漫长的人生中，顶天了只有二十次投资机会，你会怎么做？不出意料的话，你一定会对你的潜在投资标的无比谨慎，无比专注对吗？“我从某某那儿听说了一个特别棒的投资项目！”——这种异想天开的念头不会再有了对吗？也不会再满世界地寻找那些有的没的或者是所谓“热点消息”“独家情报”了对吗？</p>\n<p>就是这个道理。</p>\n<p>不客气地说，如果实在找不到什么合适的投资机会，待在你自己熟悉的世界里什么都不做，也比跳进你不熟悉的世界瞎折腾强，至少不会血本无归。</p>\n<p>事实上，这正是所有成功的投资家的做法。当搞不清状况的时候，他们会选择“按兵不动”，什么都不做。他们只是坐在那里，望着窗外，静静地等待，等待一个能真正说服自己的投资标的出现。一旦发现这样的东西，他们便会紧紧地抓住不放，密切地追踪它的发展轨迹，一直到确信万无一失才会付诸行动。</p>\n<p>一旦把真金白银砸进去，剩下的事就简单了：你只需静待投资标的升值即可。没错，你需要做的事还是等待，耐心地等待。之所以你有这份耐心，是因为你有信心，明确地知道卖点（出手你的投资标的）在哪里以及会在什么时候出现。</p>\n<p>只要是自己熟悉的领域，无论发生任何变化，忽好还是忽坏，你都能立刻搞清楚状况，泰然处之。反之亦然，如果你的投资是听从他人的建议，自己完全没过脑子，也就是说，你投资的东西到底是个什么玩意儿，自己当初为什么买了它，这些最基本的状况你都搞不懂，那万一出现什么闪失，你就只有抓瞎的份儿了。</p>\n<p>无论是买车、买衣服，还是买其他任何东西，这个道理都适用：只要你比别人知道得多，比别人更专业、更熟悉，你就比别人更能得到有利的交易条件，买到物美价廉的东西。</p>\n<p>投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人均投资失败的时候，只要你投资的是一个自己熟知的事物，在大多数情况下，你的投资标的最终都能升值，而且是大幅升值。</p>\n<p><b>正因为有太多的人失败，所以才有机会</b></p>\n<p>当绝大多数人品尝投资失败的苦酒时，聪明的投资者却能游刃有余。越是在景气不佳，每一个人都灰心丧气、悲观失望的时候，抓住机会果断出手的人在景气恢复时得到的回报就越高。</p>\n<p>所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。</p>\n<p>只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。</p>\n<p>当然，在投资前，必须针对投资对象做好充分的调查研究。如果真心想赚钱，就应该在信息收集方面不惜劳力。反之，如果实在找不到合适的机会，把钱放在银行静待时机才是唯一合理的选择。</p>\n<p>不过，即便是把钱放银行，也并不意味着绝对安全。举个例子。2006年和2007年，有相当多的人已经意识到经济出了状况，因为彼时次贷问题已然日益严重，可是大多数人却什么也没做，眼睁睁地看着自己银行里的钱和名下的不动产化为乌有。</p>\n<p>所以，当危机来临时，把钱放在哪家银行更靠谱一些也是一个需要高度注意的问题。具体地说，银行这个东西，绝不是越大越好，重点不是规模，而是财务健全度。一定要把自己的血汗钱交给那些财务健全的银行保管，否则灾难降临时你连哭都来不及。</p>\n<p>我个人手头有不少俄罗斯债券。除了利息较高之外，俄罗斯的政府总债务占GDP的比例不算太高，因此相对来说债券的财务健全度比较靠谱。这一点非常吸引我，也让我放心。但这并不是说，即便你连俄罗斯在地图上的位置都搞不清楚，也可以购买俄罗斯的债券，理由是吉姆·罗杰斯这样做了。</p>\n<p>总之，不要理睬报纸或互联网上某个人发出的“购买俄罗斯债券”的建议，无论那个建议出于什么理由以及是否正确都与你无关。因为这个东西你自己不了解。而只要是你自己不了解的东西，任何投资行为都是错误的。</p>\n<p>就拿我自己来说，我不但知道俄罗斯在地图上的位置，也对如何寻找俄罗斯掮客（中间人）了如指掌。至于亲自造访俄罗斯本土则更是不在话下。所以，如果有人问我：“应该如何投资俄罗斯？”我的回答一定是：“如果不知道如何投资俄罗斯，你就不应该投资俄罗斯。”就这么简单。</p>\n<p>如果有那个闲工夫去找投资俄罗斯的方法，那还不如不投资俄罗斯。</p>\n<p>投资有风险，决策须谨慎。即便是我自己，从20世纪70年代开始做投资这一行，迄今已经近半个世纪了，也并不总是常胜将军。</p>\n<p><b>哪些资产是危机时必须持有的</b></p>\n<p>危机发生时，应该持有哪些资产呢？</p>\n<p>简单，美元。我本人就持有大量美元。</p>\n<p>这就奇怪了。不是说美国是世界上最大的债务国，债务泡沫已近破裂的边缘，且情况正日益恶化吗？既然如此，为何还要持有美元呢？</p>\n<p>让我们来分析一下这件事。首先，必须理解大多数人的想法和做法。当危机爆发时，人们往往会这么想：“美元是安全的避难所。”没错，正因为有危险，所以人们必须为自己的财产找个安全的地方，而他们首选的避险工具就是美元。正因为这样，人们会看到：往往越是有危机，美元就越会升值。哪怕这个危机的肇事者是美国人自己，亦是如此。</p>\n<p>危机越严重，人们对美元的狂热以及美元升值的幅度就越夸张——注意，这是一个典型的信号，千万不要错过。而我的做法也很简单，那就是果断地卖掉美元，再买点什么别的值得投资的东西。</p>\n<p>当然，美元不是唯一的避险工具。危机时应该如何避险，归根结底与发生了什么样的危机有关。不过，除了美元之外，危机发生的时候大多数货币都会贬值，这也是事实。至于黄金，尽管也有投资价值，不过一般来说在危机的最初阶段，金价往往会下跌。理由很简单，危机发生会造成现金短缺，手头缺钱的人们往往会匆匆卖掉黄金，入手现金来应急——注意，这又是一个投资信号。大概率事件我会卖掉手中已然升值的美元，买入贬值的黄金和白银。不过，到底应该怎么做也要看当时的情况，随着情况不同，做法也会有所不同。</p>\n<p>千万注意，在危机的初始阶段黄金价格即便会下跌，也会迅速反弹。当人们意识到自己国家的经济出了问题，情况日益恶化，货币不断贬值的时候，脑袋里的第一个反应，往往就是买金和买银——历史无数次地证明了这一点。</p>\n<p>对这种现象，很多专家教授可能会觉得有些不可思议。他们也许会认为金银又不能当饭吃，没什么使用价值，和货币相比流动性又差，靠买金银避险是典型的外行人的做法。不过，没必要介意。绝大多数人都不是专家，只是市井小民而已。他们的做法就是这样，就是要在发生危机的时候买金和买银。所以专家大人们大可以放这些庶民一马，随他们爱买啥买啥吧！</p>\n<p>至于我个人，从很久以前就入手了不少金银，且不久之前又多买了一些。在我看来，如果金银的价格下跌，只不过是提供了又一个买入的机会，而不是相反。之所以这么想，是因为在历次危机中，金银的价格即便一时下跌，也会迅速反弹。这就是历史教给我的投资之道。</p>\n<p>正因为这一次危机的严重程度将是空前的，所以无论专家教授和各国央行如何鼓噪“金银无用论”，相信大多数人也会充耳不闻，并再一次蜂拥到售卖金银的柜台前。我也一样，现已买入大量金银，为未来做好了万全的准备。</p>\n<p>特别需要指出的是，黄金是中国人的最爱。中国改革开放以前，黄金不好买且价格极高，再加上绝大多数人都没什么钱，所以对大多数中国人来说，黄金是一个稀罕物，可望而不可即。今天的中国则截然不同。买金子已然异常简单。不但可以随时随地购买黄金饰品，还可以买金币和黄金期货，去中行分行的营业厅甚至可以买到金条。</p>\n<p>可见黄金的投资潜力。</p>\n<p>不过，还是那句话，投资这码事最忌讳的就是仰仗他人。别人的意见不重要，重要的是自己的投资理念和见解。而我的投资见解是：之所以危机时要买金银，不是因为这些东西拥有客观上的财务健全性或安全性，而是因为大多数人都会本能地这样认为，即“认为”这些东西在财务上是健全和安全的。</p>\n<p>美元也一样。危机爆发时，人们会本能地认为与英镑和欧元相比，美元更靠谱一些。注意，这依然只是一种主观意识，而不是客观事实。但是否客观已然不重要，因为人们必然会依照主观意识行动。这才是真正的重点。而只要有行动便必然有结果——为投资家提供灵感的，就是这一点。</p>\n<p><b>应对危机，企业应该做什么</b></p>\n<p>在应对危机方面，企业怎么做才能未雨绸缪，防患于未然呢？</p>\n<p>简单，首先应该大幅削减债务，不但要减少自己的债务，还要多多关注客户的债务情况。因为一旦发生危机，那些财务状况不佳，债务缠身的客户绝对会连累你，给你造成巨大的麻烦。起码货款回收就会成为大问题。</p>\n<p>没有一家企业愿意轻易排斥或放弃任何一个客户。这一点我完全能理解。可问题是，欠债过多的客户是块烫手山芋，一旦出问题，情况往往会迅速恶化，令你措手不及。再者说，客户欠这么多债，本身就说明他已经有问题，而对这些问题了然于胸，并提前做好准备，显然对你没有坏处。</p>\n<p>一旦发生危机，即便只有几个客户破产，对你的影响也不容小觑。退一步讲，就算你自己的企业状态良好，财务健康，个别客户破产对你的其他客户也会有不同程度的波及效应。所以哪怕仅仅是出于对客户负责的理由，你也要充分重视这件事，要时时刻刻对那些债务缠身的交易方保持高度警惕。</p>\n<p>不只如此，你的客户是哪一个国家的企业，这一点也很重要，也需要用上述原则予以严格监控。因为与高风险国家的企业打交道，陷入麻烦的概率要远高于低风险国家。</p>\n<p>还有一点很重要，那就是专注做你的企业最擅长、最有优势的业务，尽量不要得陇望蜀，见异思迁。特别是危机的时候，万万不可盲目追求所谓多角化经营。由于没能快速进入新的商业领域，没有实行多角化策略，有太多企业受到“缺乏速度感”的批评，而这种评价显然是不公正的。理由很简单，盲目进入未知领域很危险。与潜在的机遇相比，恐怕遇到更多问题的可能性更大。事实上，越是那些选择多元化业务模式的企业，越容易卷入各种各样的麻烦，掉进各种各样的陷阱，从而令经营业绩不断恶化。这样的教训绝不鲜见。</p>\n<p>总之，越是困难时期，企业便越要专注于自己熟悉、擅长的业务，千万不能三心二意；与此同时，还要大力削减债务，避免与那些欠债太多的企业打交道。另外，危机时养成盘点资产的习惯，找出那些必要性不大的资产，然后卖掉它们，增加手头的现金储备，也不失为一个良策。</p>\n<p>最后，让我们来做一个小结。常言道：“现金为王”，正因为危机极难预知却必然会到来，所以提前备好足够的现金以防患于未然，是应对危机的王道。</p>\n<p>而确保现金流的关键一招是及时卖掉多余的资产，用这笔钱偿还债务，以减轻企业的财务负担；然后，完全专注于自己最擅长的核心业务领域。</p>\n<p>只要你能做到这些，任何危机都打不倒你，甚至伤不到你。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>吉姆·罗杰斯的危机应对手册</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n吉姆·罗杰斯的危机应对手册\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 22:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nj-n4msY-SLHhQm_Sml6-g><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。\n\n\n来源丨巴伦周刊\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nj-n4msY-SLHhQm_Sml6-g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb340175a4c52ccc61fe1cd88143e62b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nj-n4msY-SLHhQm_Sml6-g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109053454","content_text":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。\n\n\n来源丨巴伦周刊\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。\n可见，对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。世界永远在变，从未停止。\n所以我才会一再主张每一个人都应该向历史学习，都应该敬畏历史。中国有句古话“以史为镜，可以知兴替”，就是这个意思。\n当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是十五年。有时也许是十年，有时也许是二十五年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔十到十五年，一次巨大的变化便会来临。这是一个大概率事件。\n举个例子。1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这在十年前的1981年几乎是不可想象的事情。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年时间，苏联这个所谓“红色帝国”便彻底消失了。受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的“终极胜利”，其结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的“历史终结论”。可区区十五年之后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家，却是一片欣欣向荣、蒸蒸日上的景象。特别是中国的强劲发展，甚至把欧美等发达国家从次贷危机的泥潭中拉了出来。\n由此，我可以断言，今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的，未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更加谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这一点。\n那么，常识反转的契机又是什么呢？简单，是危机。从某种意义上说，危机并不坏，甚至是一个好东西，是绝佳的机会。\n在汉语中，“危机”这个词是由“危”和“机”两个部分构成的，意味着危险与机会永远是一枚硬币的两面，如影随形、相辅相成。\n当报纸的“社会经济”版面被可怕的大字标题与危机的消息所覆盖时，你可能会本能地这样想：“上帝啊，这可真是太惨了！”可是，另一些人也许与你的想法不一样。他们会这样想：“感谢上苍，这简直是天赐良机！”\n不错。无论是“9·11”事件这样的人祸，还是“日本大海啸”这样的天灾，所有灾难对我们这个世界以及全人类来说都是令人悲伤的事情，可是，对投资家而言，这些危机也同时意味着机会。因为危机前后的世界，将有巨大的不同。驾驭这些不同，而不是被其吞没；主动出击，而不是被动等待，是成为人生赢家的必经之路。这才是真正的勇者和智者之所为。\n即便危机爆发也无须绝望\n要记住，即便在危机中失去一切，即便陷入沮丧与绝望的深渊，凤凰涅槃、绝处逢生的机会也永远存在。因为绝望越深、越重，机会来临时的幸福也便越沉、越满。事实上，这个世界上越成功的人物，曾经历过的绝望便越为深重，越难以忍受。从来如此，从无例外。\n所以，对那些经历危机而悲观厌世的人，我想这样说：“没关系，不要紧。无论发生了多坏的事，天也塌不下来。何止如此，十五年之后就会完全变天，那时就是你重生的机会。”\n没错，无论你的人生被危机如何摧残，也无论你的心情如何沮丧绝望，也要顽强地活下去。只要活着，就会迎来转机。这是人生常态，也是自然规律。正如中国那句古老的谚语所言：“留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。”\n我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。曾经有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择了自杀这条不归路；我本人也曾因离婚长期情绪低迷，而现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的十五年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。我的经历绝非个例。相同的人和事每天都在我们身边发生，只是你没有意识到罢了。\n事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对“十五年后自己的人生将截然不同”这一点一无所知。不妨想象一下：如果放弃自杀的念头，未来也许有一个极为精彩的人生在前方等着你也说不定。\n以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。如果他们不死，十五年后，当他们35岁的时候，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期望一下，等待一次。还是那句话，无论发生了什么事，也无论这件事带给你多大的摧残和打击，等一等，未来会不一样。\n以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘的时候，想必有许多人陷入了绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短的时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。掐指一算，正好十五年。\n美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的“大萧条”中失去一切而轻生，可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，便会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为1945年第二次世界大战结束时的美国，其国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。\n掐指一算，又是十五年。股神巴菲特有一句名言：“永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。”我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：“永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。”这不是安慰，是事实。\n应对危机的第一要务\n那么，应对危机的第一要务是什么呢？\n简单，要对这个世界正在发生什么有个清醒的认识。\n遗憾的是，绝大多数人做不到这一点。有太多的人即便周边发生了无数危机的征兆，也表现得无动于衷，不能做到积极地探寻这些征兆背后的深刻含意。所以说，一定要对这个世界的运行机制，以及由此导致的所有表象随时保持正确的敏感与清晰的理解。\n比如说，印度的金融体系到底发生了什么，必须探求所有征兆的蛛丝马迹。无论你发现了什么，看见了什么，一定要保持这样的思维和行为方式。特别需要注意的是，当你这样做的时候，千万不要试图咨询他人的意见。一定要保持独立性，切忌依赖他人。否则当问题发生的时候，就有你受的了——那些不会用自己的脑袋思考，只知道随他人意志起舞的人，一旦进展不顺，便会表现得彻底蒙圈，手足无措。\n所以说投资这码事，只适合选择自己熟悉的事、擅长的事。否则，买了自己都搞不懂的东西，万一有点什么差池，想不蒙圈都难。\n这就是所谓“不熟不做”的道理。\n所有人都喜欢“热点消息”“独家情报”。特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点“内部消息”，都希望从我嘴里说一句“哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！”可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。\n所以还是那句话：相信自己的脑袋，只在自己知道的东西、熟悉的东西身上花钱。这样做就对了。\n不妨这样想问题：假设你漫长的人生中，顶天了只有二十次投资机会，你会怎么做？不出意料的话，你一定会对你的潜在投资标的无比谨慎，无比专注对吗？“我从某某那儿听说了一个特别棒的投资项目！”——这种异想天开的念头不会再有了对吗？也不会再满世界地寻找那些有的没的或者是所谓“热点消息”“独家情报”了对吗？\n就是这个道理。\n不客气地说，如果实在找不到什么合适的投资机会，待在你自己熟悉的世界里什么都不做，也比跳进你不熟悉的世界瞎折腾强，至少不会血本无归。\n事实上，这正是所有成功的投资家的做法。当搞不清状况的时候，他们会选择“按兵不动”，什么都不做。他们只是坐在那里，望着窗外，静静地等待，等待一个能真正说服自己的投资标的出现。一旦发现这样的东西，他们便会紧紧地抓住不放，密切地追踪它的发展轨迹，一直到确信万无一失才会付诸行动。\n一旦把真金白银砸进去，剩下的事就简单了：你只需静待投资标的升值即可。没错，你需要做的事还是等待，耐心地等待。之所以你有这份耐心，是因为你有信心，明确地知道卖点（出手你的投资标的）在哪里以及会在什么时候出现。\n只要是自己熟悉的领域，无论发生任何变化，忽好还是忽坏，你都能立刻搞清楚状况，泰然处之。反之亦然，如果你的投资是听从他人的建议，自己完全没过脑子，也就是说，你投资的东西到底是个什么玩意儿，自己当初为什么买了它，这些最基本的状况你都搞不懂，那万一出现什么闪失，你就只有抓瞎的份儿了。\n无论是买车、买衣服，还是买其他任何东西，这个道理都适用：只要你比别人知道得多，比别人更专业、更熟悉，你就比别人更能得到有利的交易条件，买到物美价廉的东西。\n投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人均投资失败的时候，只要你投资的是一个自己熟知的事物，在大多数情况下，你的投资标的最终都能升值，而且是大幅升值。\n正因为有太多的人失败，所以才有机会\n当绝大多数人品尝投资失败的苦酒时，聪明的投资者却能游刃有余。越是在景气不佳，每一个人都灰心丧气、悲观失望的时候，抓住机会果断出手的人在景气恢复时得到的回报就越高。\n所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。\n只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。\n当然，在投资前，必须针对投资对象做好充分的调查研究。如果真心想赚钱，就应该在信息收集方面不惜劳力。反之，如果实在找不到合适的机会，把钱放在银行静待时机才是唯一合理的选择。\n不过，即便是把钱放银行，也并不意味着绝对安全。举个例子。2006年和2007年，有相当多的人已经意识到经济出了状况，因为彼时次贷问题已然日益严重，可是大多数人却什么也没做，眼睁睁地看着自己银行里的钱和名下的不动产化为乌有。\n所以，当危机来临时，把钱放在哪家银行更靠谱一些也是一个需要高度注意的问题。具体地说，银行这个东西，绝不是越大越好，重点不是规模，而是财务健全度。一定要把自己的血汗钱交给那些财务健全的银行保管，否则灾难降临时你连哭都来不及。\n我个人手头有不少俄罗斯债券。除了利息较高之外，俄罗斯的政府总债务占GDP的比例不算太高，因此相对来说债券的财务健全度比较靠谱。这一点非常吸引我，也让我放心。但这并不是说，即便你连俄罗斯在地图上的位置都搞不清楚，也可以购买俄罗斯的债券，理由是吉姆·罗杰斯这样做了。\n总之，不要理睬报纸或互联网上某个人发出的“购买俄罗斯债券”的建议，无论那个建议出于什么理由以及是否正确都与你无关。因为这个东西你自己不了解。而只要是你自己不了解的东西，任何投资行为都是错误的。\n就拿我自己来说，我不但知道俄罗斯在地图上的位置，也对如何寻找俄罗斯掮客（中间人）了如指掌。至于亲自造访俄罗斯本土则更是不在话下。所以，如果有人问我：“应该如何投资俄罗斯？”我的回答一定是：“如果不知道如何投资俄罗斯，你就不应该投资俄罗斯。”就这么简单。\n如果有那个闲工夫去找投资俄罗斯的方法，那还不如不投资俄罗斯。\n投资有风险，决策须谨慎。即便是我自己，从20世纪70年代开始做投资这一行，迄今已经近半个世纪了，也并不总是常胜将军。\n哪些资产是危机时必须持有的\n危机发生时，应该持有哪些资产呢？\n简单，美元。我本人就持有大量美元。\n这就奇怪了。不是说美国是世界上最大的债务国，债务泡沫已近破裂的边缘，且情况正日益恶化吗？既然如此，为何还要持有美元呢？\n让我们来分析一下这件事。首先，必须理解大多数人的想法和做法。当危机爆发时，人们往往会这么想：“美元是安全的避难所。”没错，正因为有危险，所以人们必须为自己的财产找个安全的地方，而他们首选的避险工具就是美元。正因为这样，人们会看到：往往越是有危机，美元就越会升值。哪怕这个危机的肇事者是美国人自己，亦是如此。\n危机越严重，人们对美元的狂热以及美元升值的幅度就越夸张——注意，这是一个典型的信号，千万不要错过。而我的做法也很简单，那就是果断地卖掉美元，再买点什么别的值得投资的东西。\n当然，美元不是唯一的避险工具。危机时应该如何避险，归根结底与发生了什么样的危机有关。不过，除了美元之外，危机发生的时候大多数货币都会贬值，这也是事实。至于黄金，尽管也有投资价值，不过一般来说在危机的最初阶段，金价往往会下跌。理由很简单，危机发生会造成现金短缺，手头缺钱的人们往往会匆匆卖掉黄金，入手现金来应急——注意，这又是一个投资信号。大概率事件我会卖掉手中已然升值的美元，买入贬值的黄金和白银。不过，到底应该怎么做也要看当时的情况，随着情况不同，做法也会有所不同。\n千万注意，在危机的初始阶段黄金价格即便会下跌，也会迅速反弹。当人们意识到自己国家的经济出了问题，情况日益恶化，货币不断贬值的时候，脑袋里的第一个反应，往往就是买金和买银——历史无数次地证明了这一点。\n对这种现象，很多专家教授可能会觉得有些不可思议。他们也许会认为金银又不能当饭吃，没什么使用价值，和货币相比流动性又差，靠买金银避险是典型的外行人的做法。不过，没必要介意。绝大多数人都不是专家，只是市井小民而已。他们的做法就是这样，就是要在发生危机的时候买金和买银。所以专家大人们大可以放这些庶民一马，随他们爱买啥买啥吧！\n至于我个人，从很久以前就入手了不少金银，且不久之前又多买了一些。在我看来，如果金银的价格下跌，只不过是提供了又一个买入的机会，而不是相反。之所以这么想，是因为在历次危机中，金银的价格即便一时下跌，也会迅速反弹。这就是历史教给我的投资之道。\n正因为这一次危机的严重程度将是空前的，所以无论专家教授和各国央行如何鼓噪“金银无用论”，相信大多数人也会充耳不闻，并再一次蜂拥到售卖金银的柜台前。我也一样，现已买入大量金银，为未来做好了万全的准备。\n特别需要指出的是，黄金是中国人的最爱。中国改革开放以前，黄金不好买且价格极高，再加上绝大多数人都没什么钱，所以对大多数中国人来说，黄金是一个稀罕物，可望而不可即。今天的中国则截然不同。买金子已然异常简单。不但可以随时随地购买黄金饰品，还可以买金币和黄金期货，去中行分行的营业厅甚至可以买到金条。\n可见黄金的投资潜力。\n不过，还是那句话，投资这码事最忌讳的就是仰仗他人。别人的意见不重要，重要的是自己的投资理念和见解。而我的投资见解是：之所以危机时要买金银，不是因为这些东西拥有客观上的财务健全性或安全性，而是因为大多数人都会本能地这样认为，即“认为”这些东西在财务上是健全和安全的。\n美元也一样。危机爆发时，人们会本能地认为与英镑和欧元相比，美元更靠谱一些。注意，这依然只是一种主观意识，而不是客观事实。但是否客观已然不重要，因为人们必然会依照主观意识行动。这才是真正的重点。而只要有行动便必然有结果——为投资家提供灵感的，就是这一点。\n应对危机，企业应该做什么\n在应对危机方面，企业怎么做才能未雨绸缪，防患于未然呢？\n简单，首先应该大幅削减债务，不但要减少自己的债务，还要多多关注客户的债务情况。因为一旦发生危机，那些财务状况不佳，债务缠身的客户绝对会连累你，给你造成巨大的麻烦。起码货款回收就会成为大问题。\n没有一家企业愿意轻易排斥或放弃任何一个客户。这一点我完全能理解。可问题是，欠债过多的客户是块烫手山芋，一旦出问题，情况往往会迅速恶化，令你措手不及。再者说，客户欠这么多债，本身就说明他已经有问题，而对这些问题了然于胸，并提前做好准备，显然对你没有坏处。\n一旦发生危机，即便只有几个客户破产，对你的影响也不容小觑。退一步讲，就算你自己的企业状态良好，财务健康，个别客户破产对你的其他客户也会有不同程度的波及效应。所以哪怕仅仅是出于对客户负责的理由，你也要充分重视这件事，要时时刻刻对那些债务缠身的交易方保持高度警惕。\n不只如此，你的客户是哪一个国家的企业，这一点也很重要，也需要用上述原则予以严格监控。因为与高风险国家的企业打交道，陷入麻烦的概率要远高于低风险国家。\n还有一点很重要，那就是专注做你的企业最擅长、最有优势的业务，尽量不要得陇望蜀，见异思迁。特别是危机的时候，万万不可盲目追求所谓多角化经营。由于没能快速进入新的商业领域，没有实行多角化策略，有太多企业受到“缺乏速度感”的批评，而这种评价显然是不公正的。理由很简单，盲目进入未知领域很危险。与潜在的机遇相比，恐怕遇到更多问题的可能性更大。事实上，越是那些选择多元化业务模式的企业，越容易卷入各种各样的麻烦，掉进各种各样的陷阱，从而令经营业绩不断恶化。这样的教训绝不鲜见。\n总之，越是困难时期，企业便越要专注于自己熟悉、擅长的业务，千万不能三心二意；与此同时，还要大力削减债务，避免与那些欠债太多的企业打交道。另外，危机时养成盘点资产的习惯，找出那些必要性不大的资产，然后卖掉它们，增加手头的现金储备，也不失为一个良策。\n最后，让我们来做一个小结。常言道：“现金为王”，正因为危机极难预知却必然会到来，所以提前备好足够的现金以防患于未然，是应对危机的王道。\n而确保现金流的关键一招是及时卖掉多余的资产，用这笔钱偿还债务，以减轻企业的财务负担；然后，完全专注于自己最擅长的核心业务领域。\n只要你能做到这些，任何危机都打不倒你，甚至伤不到你。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929039056,"gmtCreate":1670558120376,"gmtModify":1676538393836,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582091132450948","idStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09618\">$京東集團-SW(09618)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09618\">$京東集團-SW(09618)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$京東集團-SW(09618)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929039056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966396219,"gmtCreate":1669416487832,"gmtModify":1676538193834,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582091132450948","idStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966396219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805278929,"gmtCreate":1627887789361,"gmtModify":1703497227453,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_7099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582091132450948","idStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805278929","repostId":"1161681018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161681018","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627885510,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161681018?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 14:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克尬吹特斯拉：推出Autopilot是为拯救酒驾","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161681018","media":"新智元","summary":"特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n\n「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Aut","content":"<blockquote>\n 特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n</blockquote>\n<p>「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Autopilot功能的特斯拉睡觉，从而发生车祸甚至导致自行车乘员伤亡（当然，车主没有受伤）」。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/871b555295f95cda5282c189aa3fa62d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>马斯克又在Twitter上大放厥词。</p>\n<p>随后，他还不忘「补刀」：「这位睡着的驾驶员居然污蔑是由于我们车上的味道导致他睡着的。真是难以接受」。</p>\n<p>莫非在发推之前刚刚High了一下？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50bb99a934a7f2b9905c2bdb2abbf6dd\" tg-width=\"290\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉拯救酒驾</p>\n<p>马斯克发推是与一个博主进行的互动。后者分享了一条挪威特斯拉Model S的视频。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/650e611cf06761ab710e43e54e163d8d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n 挪威特斯拉车主开车时遭遇昏迷，特斯拉自动驾驶仪检测到后，减速并停了下来，以便急救中心进行救援\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8002f675562790eb456e55ca19f303ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>视频显示，一台Model S在公路上行驶，但是24岁的驾驶员正在呼呼大睡（这似乎不是第一起了），但车辆侦测到异常状态后，自动停了下来并打开了双闪。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f7f0e2761ec57a3b5f7735c1dd4714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而，挪威警方在随后的官方公告中表示，这位驾驶员涉嫌酒驾，已经进行了取证。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e076b3e1ecfc172079013bfc14cc68ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"884\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n 一辆特斯拉停在隧道里。原来是一个24岁的男子在车轮后面睡着了。他也喝醉了，但顽固地否认开车。\n</blockquote>\n<p>特斯拉的支持者认为特斯拉的Autopilot系统在其中起了相当正面的作用：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e3a32703b5860c97d4863ad238db9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但也有持不同意见的：「特斯拉应该由于允许酒驾被起诉！」</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3ac722d0063b9b0cd9ae901c6b048c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外还有这位不知是支持者还是特斯拉的高端黑：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4105cb011f06a81ae38364a39555b744\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n 我选择特斯拉就是因为我可以开着它疲劳驾驶\n</blockquote>\n<p>Autopilot：驾驶辅助系统的开创者</p>\n<p>在2015年，特斯拉第一次通过OTA的方式为Model S推送的Autopilot辅助驾驶系统。</p>\n<p>在摄像头的协助下，系统可以自动控制转向，从而让车辆保持在车道线内行驶。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4c06c526ff8b5ce40acdf80d9debb3\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Autopilot是一款L2级辅助驾驶系统，意味着它可以在特定条件下帮助车主完成基本的驾驶任务，但并不是完全自动驾驶功能。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa62b06038e756ce6b0e34adc47de01\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这在当时引起了轰动：除了自动泊车以外，当时还没有一款车能够在正常道路行驶时自动控制方向盘。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8800a9ddbf0a6a7e0c3866d1d4ad14e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>依靠车身上的8枚摄像头形成360°环绕，另外还有1个前雷达再加12个毫米波雷达传感器，令特斯拉在复杂路况能够实现自动辅助转向。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d4523ca2f904ae2ed0a49824ccf1071\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>先后与Mobileye和NVIDIA合作之后，在2019年4月，特斯拉推出了自研芯片的FSD（Full-Self -Driving）系统。</p>\n<p>特斯拉表示，虽然现在还需要驾驶员时时监控，但FSD计算机能够提供更智能性能和控制。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dd384c7fde1d8bcdb37d3382ee76967\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而最近在美国上线的FSD 9.0则抛弃了毫米波雷达，完全采用摄像头实现所有场景下的辅助驾驶功能。</p>\n<p>相比之前的版本，堪称革命性的变化：</p>\n<p>UI变得更加像一台Robotaxi，并且把之前FSD在高速公路上自动变线、超车甚至是路口转弯等功能搬到了城市路况中。</p>\n<p>其中，十字路口自动转向也得到了实现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4e4e86ad72d4b0c80b1c811dec28a7\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在今年的CVPR大会自动驾驶的workshop中，特斯拉AI主管Andrej Karpathy在介绍特斯拉基于摄像头实现自动驾驶的方案。</p>\n<p>他表示自家的摄像头不仅成像性能出色，而且加上神经网络算法，完全抛开各种雷达毫无问题。</p>\n<p>在「影子模式」下，系统还能够自动学习人类的操作习惯，以及在各种场景下的应对方法。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2235d729f69255ce095c291b4553b973\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>看得更准，反应更快，所以在安全性上「硅脑」比人脑可靠多了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14290934085a96563217d86df8c40ace\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>依靠世界各地行驶的超百万台车辆，特斯拉从中能够收集海量的数据，从而协助他们在自动驾驶的道路上狂奔。</p>\n<p>不容否认的是，自Autopilot亮相之后，特斯拉带动了全球汽车界L2级智能驾驶技术的普及。迄今特斯拉仍然在智能驾驶领域处于领先地位。</p>\n<p>Autopilot安全吗？</p>\n<p>关于Autopilot系统，人们向来对其褒贬不一。</p>\n<p>根据特斯拉官方公布的车辆安全报告显示，激活Autopilot功能之后，特斯拉平均每345万英里发生一起事故，仅使用特斯拉主动安全系统的车型，平均每205万英里发生一起事故。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca3cc1318c003b28002ca39edcdde8cf\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport</p>\n<p>但是根据美国国家高速交通安全协会NHTSA最近的数据表明，全美在册的汽车平均每行驶48.4万英里就会发生一起事故。</p>\n<p>Autopilot系统可以主动识别与前方车辆的距离，并且在紧急情况下遇到道路前方的车辆、行人以及其他交通参与者时，可以自动紧急制动来避免事故的发生。从而可以避免在日常环境中碰到的绝大多数类型的交通事故。</p>\n<p>但是在特斯拉发生的几起著名的事故中，Autopilot也被认为难辞其咎。</p>\n<p>2018年3月23日，在加州山景城发生的一起事故中，38岁的苹果工程师黄伟伦的特斯拉2017款Model X在AP开启状态下撞上了高速公路的隔离带，黄伟伦在送往医院后不治身亡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/336574734048f90710371a44ed6b98d4\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>调查显示车辆的Autopilot自动驾驶功能在车辆撞向障碍物之前没有采取刹车操作。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace6acaf95b699dd4aa07d310b3af51b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2020年3月，台湾省的高速公路上，一台白色Model 3直接撞向了一台横在道路中央的白色集装箱卡车。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86eb4a8c519fd8407437c4058c5f7af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这台车同样开启了Autopilot功能，但是系统由于没有辨认出前方的障碍物，导致对于白色集装箱没有任何反应直接撞了上去。所幸驾驶员没有受伤。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2fe517e1bceb3330eb357a9945bc6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2021年5月19日，在西雅图北郊的阿灵顿，一名副警长正在调查一起汽车与电线杆相撞事故，当时他驾驶的警车——一辆福特探险者就停在旁边的路肩上。</p>\n<p>没有想到的是，一辆2015款特斯拉Model S.从后面直冲上来，撞上了警车的左侧，警车「严重损坏」。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13fb9eaee7d53392c672855d4cd7a874\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>所幸，副警长在处理事故，并不在车里，这才避免了更严重的事故发生。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2ba7aa19046446ae152cd0c8e3786e\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉驾驶员称事故发生时，Autopilot功能处于开启状态，他以为特斯拉会减速并自行绕开前面的警车。</p>\n<p>Autopilot给车主们关上了一扇门，却打开了另一扇窗……</p>\n<p>尽管特斯拉一再声明，Autopilot属于驾驶辅助功能，并且要求驾驶员将注意力集中在道路上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b1529850b369237b1b26951a4efa30\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是对于车辆本身而言，对于驾驶员却没有这么多强制性的约束：它们仅仅依靠方向盘的扭矩传感器来监控驾驶员。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1c2159fd350f76048cc1bd2abe02239\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如果长时间没有转动方向盘，就被认为是驾驶员没有控制车辆，从而实现自动减速停车。</p>\n<p>不过这也给各种驾驶员带来了「作弊」的空间，比如：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/255bc4a5bab8274db8cbfaadb2d31b00\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>加上Autopilot系统自身的局限性，在诸如高速公路的路况下倘若发生没有识别前方障碍物的情况，发生的事故往往都是更加危险的——因为车辆没有采取任何操作。</p>\n<p>事实上，在文章开头的那起「酒驾」事件也颇为侥幸：当事人驾驶的是一台老款的Model S，它并没有使用更加聪明的FSD系统，仅仅凭借着方向盘的扭矩传感器制止了事故的发生。</p>\n<p>假如他在方向盘上绑个重物，那可能又是一起「特斯拉杀人」的事件。</p>\n<p>如今很多其他品牌的车型也具备了相近的功能，并且还能够通过摄像头等其他传感元件来监控驾驶员。</p>\n<p>但这同样意味着特斯拉发生的事故，很可能在其他具备L2级辅助驾驶功能的车型上复现。</p>\n<p>智能驾驶技术的发展，可能需要科研人员花费巨大精力在与人类驾驶员斗智斗勇这件事上。</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克尬吹特斯拉：推出Autopilot是为拯救酒驾</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克尬吹特斯拉：推出Autopilot是为拯救酒驾\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 14:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1337120903403520><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n\n「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Autopilot功能的特斯拉睡觉，从而发生车祸甚至导致自行车乘员伤亡（当然，车主没有受伤）」。\n\n马斯克又在Twitter上大放厥词。\n随后，他还不忘「补刀」：「这位睡着的驾驶员居然污蔑是由于我们车上的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1337120903403520\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1337120903403520","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161681018","content_text":"特斯拉立功了！这一次一台Model S在挪威拯救了一名酒驾司机。马斯克立刻鼓吹起了Autopilot，但是网友似乎不太买账。\n\n「我们之所以这么着急推出Autopilot，就是由于有些人开着没有Autopilot功能的特斯拉睡觉，从而发生车祸甚至导致自行车乘员伤亡（当然，车主没有受伤）」。\n\n马斯克又在Twitter上大放厥词。\n随后，他还不忘「补刀」：「这位睡着的驾驶员居然污蔑是由于我们车上的味道导致他睡着的。真是难以接受」。\n莫非在发推之前刚刚High了一下？\n\n特斯拉拯救酒驾\n马斯克发推是与一个博主进行的互动。后者分享了一条挪威特斯拉Model S的视频。\n\n\n 挪威特斯拉车主开车时遭遇昏迷，特斯拉自动驾驶仪检测到后，减速并停了下来，以便急救中心进行救援\n\n\n视频显示，一台Model S在公路上行驶，但是24岁的驾驶员正在呼呼大睡（这似乎不是第一起了），但车辆侦测到异常状态后，自动停了下来并打开了双闪。\n\n然而，挪威警方在随后的官方公告中表示，这位驾驶员涉嫌酒驾，已经进行了取证。\n\n\n 一辆特斯拉停在隧道里。原来是一个24岁的男子在车轮后面睡着了。他也喝醉了，但顽固地否认开车。\n\n特斯拉的支持者认为特斯拉的Autopilot系统在其中起了相当正面的作用：\n\n但也有持不同意见的：「特斯拉应该由于允许酒驾被起诉！」\n\n另外还有这位不知是支持者还是特斯拉的高端黑：\n\n\n 我选择特斯拉就是因为我可以开着它疲劳驾驶\n\nAutopilot：驾驶辅助系统的开创者\n在2015年，特斯拉第一次通过OTA的方式为Model S推送的Autopilot辅助驾驶系统。\n在摄像头的协助下，系统可以自动控制转向，从而让车辆保持在车道线内行驶。\n\nAutopilot是一款L2级辅助驾驶系统，意味着它可以在特定条件下帮助车主完成基本的驾驶任务，但并不是完全自动驾驶功能。\n\n这在当时引起了轰动：除了自动泊车以外，当时还没有一款车能够在正常道路行驶时自动控制方向盘。\n\n依靠车身上的8枚摄像头形成360°环绕，另外还有1个前雷达再加12个毫米波雷达传感器，令特斯拉在复杂路况能够实现自动辅助转向。\n\n先后与Mobileye和NVIDIA合作之后，在2019年4月，特斯拉推出了自研芯片的FSD（Full-Self -Driving）系统。\n特斯拉表示，虽然现在还需要驾驶员时时监控，但FSD计算机能够提供更智能性能和控制。\n\n而最近在美国上线的FSD 9.0则抛弃了毫米波雷达，完全采用摄像头实现所有场景下的辅助驾驶功能。\n相比之前的版本，堪称革命性的变化：\nUI变得更加像一台Robotaxi，并且把之前FSD在高速公路上自动变线、超车甚至是路口转弯等功能搬到了城市路况中。\n其中，十字路口自动转向也得到了实现。\n\n在今年的CVPR大会自动驾驶的workshop中，特斯拉AI主管Andrej Karpathy在介绍特斯拉基于摄像头实现自动驾驶的方案。\n他表示自家的摄像头不仅成像性能出色，而且加上神经网络算法，完全抛开各种雷达毫无问题。\n在「影子模式」下，系统还能够自动学习人类的操作习惯，以及在各种场景下的应对方法。\n\n看得更准，反应更快，所以在安全性上「硅脑」比人脑可靠多了。\n\n依靠世界各地行驶的超百万台车辆，特斯拉从中能够收集海量的数据，从而协助他们在自动驾驶的道路上狂奔。\n不容否认的是，自Autopilot亮相之后，特斯拉带动了全球汽车界L2级智能驾驶技术的普及。迄今特斯拉仍然在智能驾驶领域处于领先地位。\nAutopilot安全吗？\n关于Autopilot系统，人们向来对其褒贬不一。\n根据特斯拉官方公布的车辆安全报告显示，激活Autopilot功能之后，特斯拉平均每345万英里发生一起事故，仅使用特斯拉主动安全系统的车型，平均每205万英里发生一起事故。\n\nhttps://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport\n但是根据美国国家高速交通安全协会NHTSA最近的数据表明，全美在册的汽车平均每行驶48.4万英里就会发生一起事故。\nAutopilot系统可以主动识别与前方车辆的距离，并且在紧急情况下遇到道路前方的车辆、行人以及其他交通参与者时，可以自动紧急制动来避免事故的发生。从而可以避免在日常环境中碰到的绝大多数类型的交通事故。\n但是在特斯拉发生的几起著名的事故中，Autopilot也被认为难辞其咎。\n2018年3月23日，在加州山景城发生的一起事故中，38岁的苹果工程师黄伟伦的特斯拉2017款Model X在AP开启状态下撞上了高速公路的隔离带，黄伟伦在送往医院后不治身亡。\n\n调查显示车辆的Autopilot自动驾驶功能在车辆撞向障碍物之前没有采取刹车操作。\n\n在2020年3月，台湾省的高速公路上，一台白色Model 3直接撞向了一台横在道路中央的白色集装箱卡车。\n\n这台车同样开启了Autopilot功能，但是系统由于没有辨认出前方的障碍物，导致对于白色集装箱没有任何反应直接撞了上去。所幸驾驶员没有受伤。\n\n2021年5月19日，在西雅图北郊的阿灵顿，一名副警长正在调查一起汽车与电线杆相撞事故，当时他驾驶的警车——一辆福特探险者就停在旁边的路肩上。\n没有想到的是，一辆2015款特斯拉Model S.从后面直冲上来，撞上了警车的左侧，警车「严重损坏」。\n\n所幸，副警长在处理事故，并不在车里，这才避免了更严重的事故发生。\n\n特斯拉驾驶员称事故发生时，Autopilot功能处于开启状态，他以为特斯拉会减速并自行绕开前面的警车。\nAutopilot给车主们关上了一扇门，却打开了另一扇窗……\n尽管特斯拉一再声明，Autopilot属于驾驶辅助功能，并且要求驾驶员将注意力集中在道路上。\n\n但是对于车辆本身而言，对于驾驶员却没有这么多强制性的约束：它们仅仅依靠方向盘的扭矩传感器来监控驾驶员。\n\n如果长时间没有转动方向盘，就被认为是驾驶员没有控制车辆，从而实现自动减速停车。\n不过这也给各种驾驶员带来了「作弊」的空间，比如：\n\n加上Autopilot系统自身的局限性，在诸如高速公路的路况下倘若发生没有识别前方障碍物的情况，发生的事故往往都是更加危险的——因为车辆没有采取任何操作。\n事实上，在文章开头的那起「酒驾」事件也颇为侥幸：当事人驾驶的是一台老款的Model 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