Terence_513 personal page - To The Moon

Terence_513

Terence_513

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2023-12-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$

2023-10-26

tesla good must buy will up to $500 per share

2023-06-26

tiger woods and his dad and

2023-06-22

tiger woods and his dad got it from

2023-06-19

tiger woods and his dad and dad were going out

2023-06-16

tiger is the only one that has to be

2023-06-15

Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this

2023-06-14

come and play tiger game tonight and get some

2023-06-13

Tiger new game. Good app for trading.

@TigerEvents:Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999

2023-06-13

@tiger nice. Tiger app

2023-04-14

tiger woods and his dad and dad were in

2023-04-13

tiger woods are in town for some time today at work

2023-04-12

tiger woods and his dad and dad were in town for some reason

2023-04-11

Tiger Woods has a long way in his life and is the most popular golfer of all of his years on this list of winners and

2023-04-10

Tigers were a great game in my book but theyare a little too far for the team that is playing right away in their own

2023-04-09

Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this year and has won three of

2023-04-06

tiget good nice power

2023-04-05

Tiger game. Must try up. Good to play

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2023-03-22

hhh

Three times more lethal! Powell's press conference is the real horror

2023-03-08

👍

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187321187487864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187035614290032,"gmtCreate":1686702458685,"gmtModify":1686702462837,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"come and play tiger game tonight and get some&nbsp;","listText":"come and play tiger game tonight and get some&nbsp;","text":"come and play tiger game tonight and get some","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187035614290032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186874117427280,"gmtCreate":1686662839652,"gmtModify":1686662843829,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger new game. Good app for trading.&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger new game. Good app for trading.&nbsp;","text":"Tiger new game. Good app for trading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186874117427280","repostId":"9970552986","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970552986,"gmtCreate":1684749089245,"gmtModify":1686052573124,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999","htmlText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&amp;Cs apply.👉 <a href=\"https://tigr.link/lightupsg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to start play</a>","listText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! 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Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&Cs apply.👉 Click here to start play","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b6e3d13593eac0f4cc3fdb8b6bf8056","width":"1200","height":"675"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970552986","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186873673031760,"gmtCreate":1686662731158,"gmtModify":1686662736526,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"@tiger nice. 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reason","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942559711","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942809816,"gmtCreate":1681171870436,"gmtModify":1681171874765,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger Woods has a long way in his life and is the most popular golfer of all of his years on this list of winners and&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger Woods has a long way in his life and is the most popular golfer of all of his years on this list of winners and&nbsp;","text":"Tiger Woods has a long way in his life and is the most popular golfer of all of his years on this list of winners and","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942809816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942088955,"gmtCreate":1681084292677,"gmtModify":1681084296326,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tigers were a great game in my book but theyare a little too far for the team that is playing right away in their own&nbsp;","listText":"Tigers were a great game in my book but theyare a little too far for the team that is playing right away in their own&nbsp;","text":"Tigers were a great game in my book but theyare a little too far for the team that is playing right away in their own","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942088955","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946460156,"gmtCreate":1681022795975,"gmtModify":1681022799609,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this year and has won three of&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this year and has won three of&nbsp;","text":"Tiger Woods is the only player to win the Masters this year and has won three of","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946460156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948404806,"gmtCreate":1680756652505,"gmtModify":1680756657472,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tiget good nice power","listText":"tiget good nice power","text":"tiget good nice power","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948404806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948825325,"gmtCreate":1680677609167,"gmtModify":1680677613379,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger game.&nbsp; Must try up. Good to play&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger game.&nbsp; Must try up. Good to play&nbsp;","text":"Tiger game. Must try up. Good to play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948825325","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943231046,"gmtCreate":1679470633986,"gmtModify":1679470637585,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hhh","listText":"hhh","text":"hhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943231046","repostId":"1100480684","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100480684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679455925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100480684?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-22 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Three times more lethal! Powell's press conference is the real horror","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100480684","media":"金十数据","summary":"在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be released, and everyone is still debating whether to add rate hike or not, and how many basis points in the end. However, Powell's press conference is the real \"killer\". The global market is waiting with bated breath for the March interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve to be released in the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time. How difficult it is for the Federal Reserve this time has been frantically rendered by the media. So far, the market is still full of disagreements on the result of this resolution. Just last night, rate hike was expected to heat up across the board, and this time the probability of 25 basis points in rate hike broke through 80% again.</p><p>Add rate hike or not? How many basis points in rate hike? These questions are important, but<b>Investors should pay more attention to Fed Chairman Powell's press conference after the meeting this time</b>Its influence should not be underestimated.<b>The study found that Powell's market volatility during press conferences was three times higher than that of his predecessor, and he was also often magically able to reverse the initial market reaction to FOMC announcements.</b></p><p>During six press conferences over the past year, the S&P 500 has risen or fallen by more than 1%, and its market value has fluctuated by $300 billion. News releases hosted by Powell tend to have two characteristics.</p><p>One, during the FOMC press conference, market volatility was higher than at other times. This has been the case since 2011, but this was particularly true of the press conference hosted by Powell, which shows that the press conference has played a huge role in shaping near-term market expectations. Second, before the COVID pandemic, press conferences tended to reinforce FOMC statements, and the market moved during the press conference in line with the initial reaction to the statements. However, since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, stock and bond markets have often moved in the opposite direction during press conferences than the market's initial reaction to the FOMC's announcement. That reversal has something to do with Powell's phrasing in his speech. Figure 1 shows the volatility of S&P 500 returns on the day Powell and his predecessor Yellen held a press conference. It can be seen that there was much more volatility during Powell's tenure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad8758b93fdf1e7013c31db3a1ba47b\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 2 summarizes the recent rise in market volatility during press conferences by the three Fed chairs. Although market volatility will increase at the press conferences held by the three chairmen,<b>But it was particularly noticeable under Powell: market volatility was three times higher than under the previous chairman</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a68b7309ffecfd3de0a34ad4b7c94d68\" tg-width=\"1111\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One explanation for more volatile markets during Powell's press conference may be that during his tenure,<b>More volatile macro environment</b>, which included the pandemic response and the subsequent rise in inflation. In addition, there was no significant difference in market volatility under different chairmanships in the minutes following the FOMC statement,<b>This suggests that the heightened volatility during Powell's press conference was not the result of the more surprising interest rate policy</b>。</p><p>Under Bernanke and Yellen, Fed press conferences typically reiterate the message sent in FOMC statements. As shown in Figure 3, during the press conference, the market movement tends to be consistent with the initial movement after the FOMC's announcement. Powell did the same at pre-COVID meetings, but the most recent one has strayed from that pattern. Since March 2020,<b>Markets tend to move in the opposite direction of their initial moves during Powell's press conference</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d60b7f2c3e07ca9f5897b8a443d0ce4\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>One explanation for the market reversal is that the market overreacted to the FOMC's initial announcement because it was \"inclined to listen.\" However, by analyzing the Q&A texts from Powell's recent press conferences and linking the market movements at the recent press conferences to the language used by Powell, it can be found that the reasons for this are more than just the potential overreaction of the market.</b></p><p>For example, Powell's language used at his Sept. 21, 2022, press conference, often relates to the stock market-friendly portion of the FOMC statement, during which the market rallied and the two-year Treasury Bond yield fell by nearly 8 basis points. While at the meeting on November 2, 2022, he turned to significantly more negative language, during which the stock market fell nearly 2%.</p><p>These market reversals suggest that,<b>FOMC's announcement is no longer the Fed's 'final call' on interest rate guidance</b>。</p><p>Figure 4 shows the movement of the two-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield during the press conference hosted by Yellen and Powell. During Yellen's tenure, the bond market reacted quickly to the release of the FOMC statement and tended to stay near that level after the press conference. However, during Powell's tenure, and particularly during the days when the FOMC announcement release led to higher yields in Treasury Bond, markets tended to reverse their initial reaction to the FOMC announcement release at press conferences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2fc971c6f1e881633a94a00f61804f\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These patterns indicate that,<b>The role of the Fed's press conference is shifting and is becoming increasingly important, and it doesn't always directly reiterate the FOMC's statements. The change is likely a corollary of evolving communication strategies: Powell has also doubled the number of press conferences he holds each year than his predecessors, and the length, complexity, and diversity of opinions of FOMC statements have changed over time.</b></p><p>Another possible reason is that,<b>The press conference allows the chairman to highlight his views and raise, ahead of other committee members, parts of the FOMC discussion that were not captured by the FOMC statement but considered significant by the market.</b>However, deviating from the unified message in the FOMC statement and leading to increased market volatility may be inconsistent with other communication objectives of the Fed. Large volatility in equity and bond markets is clearly incompatible with the goal of increasing predictability and reducing uncertainty. In fact, recent meetings have been less successful in reducing uncertainty about the future path of interest rates.</p><p>The last possibility is,<b>The goal of minimizing market volatility is wrong</b>。<b>A Fed \"less worried about the direct impact of its actions on bond markets may be able to adjust policy more flexibly if necessary\".</b>In other words, when the FOMC can understand the state of the economy as quickly as it does today, it may be precisely the need for a Fed chairman willing to drive the market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three times more lethal! Powell's press conference is the real horror</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree times more lethal! Powell's press conference is the real horror\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-22 11:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be released, and everyone is still debating whether to add rate hike or not, and how many basis points in the end. However, Powell's press conference is the real \"killer\". The global market is waiting with bated breath for the March interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve to be released in the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time. How difficult it is for the Federal Reserve this time has been frantically rendered by the media. So far, the market is still full of disagreements on the result of this resolution. Just last night, rate hike was expected to heat up across the board, and this time the probability of 25 basis points in rate hike broke through 80% again.</p><p>Add rate hike or not? How many basis points in rate hike? These questions are important, but<b>Investors should pay more attention to Fed Chairman Powell's press conference after the meeting this time</b>Its influence should not be underestimated.<b>The study found that Powell's market volatility during press conferences was three times higher than that of his predecessor, and he was also often magically able to reverse the initial market reaction to FOMC announcements.</b></p><p>During six press conferences over the past year, the S&P 500 has risen or fallen by more than 1%, and its market value has fluctuated by $300 billion. News releases hosted by Powell tend to have two characteristics.</p><p>One, during the FOMC press conference, market volatility was higher than at other times. This has been the case since 2011, but this was particularly true of the press conference hosted by Powell, which shows that the press conference has played a huge role in shaping near-term market expectations. Second, before the COVID pandemic, press conferences tended to reinforce FOMC statements, and the market moved during the press conference in line with the initial reaction to the statements. However, since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, stock and bond markets have often moved in the opposite direction during press conferences than the market's initial reaction to the FOMC's announcement. That reversal has something to do with Powell's phrasing in his speech. Figure 1 shows the volatility of S&P 500 returns on the day Powell and his predecessor Yellen held a press conference. It can be seen that there was much more volatility during Powell's tenure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad8758b93fdf1e7013c31db3a1ba47b\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 2 summarizes the recent rise in market volatility during press conferences by the three Fed chairs. Although market volatility will increase at the press conferences held by the three chairmen,<b>But it was particularly noticeable under Powell: market volatility was three times higher than under the previous chairman</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a68b7309ffecfd3de0a34ad4b7c94d68\" tg-width=\"1111\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One explanation for more volatile markets during Powell's press conference may be that during his tenure,<b>More volatile macro environment</b>, which included the pandemic response and the subsequent rise in inflation. In addition, there was no significant difference in market volatility under different chairmanships in the minutes following the FOMC statement,<b>This suggests that the heightened volatility during Powell's press conference was not the result of the more surprising interest rate policy</b>。</p><p>Under Bernanke and Yellen, Fed press conferences typically reiterate the message sent in FOMC statements. As shown in Figure 3, during the press conference, the market movement tends to be consistent with the initial movement after the FOMC's announcement. Powell did the same at pre-COVID meetings, but the most recent one has strayed from that pattern. Since March 2020,<b>Markets tend to move in the opposite direction of their initial moves during Powell's press conference</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d60b7f2c3e07ca9f5897b8a443d0ce4\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>One explanation for the market reversal is that the market overreacted to the FOMC's initial announcement because it was \"inclined to listen.\" However, by analyzing the Q&A texts from Powell's recent press conferences and linking the market movements at the recent press conferences to the language used by Powell, it can be found that the reasons for this are more than just the potential overreaction of the market.</b></p><p>For example, Powell's language used at his Sept. 21, 2022, press conference, often relates to the stock market-friendly portion of the FOMC statement, during which the market rallied and the two-year Treasury Bond yield fell by nearly 8 basis points. While at the meeting on November 2, 2022, he turned to significantly more negative language, during which the stock market fell nearly 2%.</p><p>These market reversals suggest that,<b>FOMC's announcement is no longer the Fed's 'final call' on interest rate guidance</b>。</p><p>Figure 4 shows the movement of the two-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield during the press conference hosted by Yellen and Powell. During Yellen's tenure, the bond market reacted quickly to the release of the FOMC statement and tended to stay near that level after the press conference. However, during Powell's tenure, and particularly during the days when the FOMC announcement release led to higher yields in Treasury Bond, markets tended to reverse their initial reaction to the FOMC announcement release at press conferences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2fc971c6f1e881633a94a00f61804f\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These patterns indicate that,<b>The role of the Fed's press conference is shifting and is becoming increasingly important, and it doesn't always directly reiterate the FOMC's statements. The change is likely a corollary of evolving communication strategies: Powell has also doubled the number of press conferences he holds each year than his predecessors, and the length, complexity, and diversity of opinions of FOMC statements have changed over time.</b></p><p>Another possible reason is that,<b>The press conference allows the chairman to highlight his views and raise, ahead of other committee members, parts of the FOMC discussion that were not captured by the FOMC statement but considered significant by the market.</b>However, deviating from the unified message in the FOMC statement and leading to increased market volatility may be inconsistent with other communication objectives of the Fed. Large volatility in equity and bond markets is clearly incompatible with the goal of increasing predictability and reducing uncertainty. In fact, recent meetings have been less successful in reducing uncertainty about the future path of interest rates.</p><p>The last possibility is,<b>The goal of minimizing market volatility is wrong</b>。<b>A Fed \"less worried about the direct impact of its actions on bond markets may be able to adjust policy more flexibly if necessary\".</b>In other words, when the FOMC can understand the state of the economy as quickly as it does today, it may be precisely the need for a Fed chairman willing to drive the market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100480684","content_text":"美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会，其影响力更加不容小觑。研究发现，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的市场波动比他的前任高出三倍，而且他往往还能神奇地扭转市场对FOMC声明的最初反应。在过去一年的六次新闻发布会期间，标普500指数的涨跌幅度超过1%，市值波动达到3000亿美元。鲍威尔主持的新闻发布往往会有两个特点。第一，在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。自2011年以来一直如此，但鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会尤其如此，这表明新闻发布会在塑造近期市场预期方面发挥了巨大作用。第二，在新冠疫情大流行之前，新闻发布会倾向于强化FOMC的声明，市场在新闻发布会期间的走势与最初对声明做出的反应一致。然而，自新冠疫情大流行开始以来，股票和债券市场在新闻发布会期间的走势往往与市场对FOMC声明的最初反应相反。这种逆转与鲍威尔在讲话中的措辞有关系。图1展示了鲍威尔及其前任耶伦召开新闻发布会当天标普500指数回报率的波动情况。可以看出鲍威尔任期内的波动性要大得多。图2总结了最近三位美联储主席在新闻发布会期间市场波动的升高情况。尽管在这三位主席召开的新闻发布会上，市场波动都会加剧，但在鲍威尔任期内尤其明显：市场波动比前任主席任期内高出三倍。鲍威尔的新闻发布会期间市场波动更加剧烈的一个解释可能是，在他的任期内，宏观环境更加动荡，其中包括疫情应对和随后的通胀抬头。此外，在FOMC声明发布后的几分钟内，不同主席任下的市场波动没有显著差异，这表明鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的波动加剧并不是更令人惊讶的利率政策的结果。在伯南克和耶伦的领导下，美联储的新闻发布会通常会重申FOMC声明中传递的信息。如图3显示，在新闻发布会上，市场走势倾向于与FOMC发布声明后最初的走势一致。鲍威尔在新冠疫情前的会议上也是这样做的，但最近的会议却偏离了这一模式。自2020年3月以来，市场在鲍威尔的新闻会议期间的走势往往与最初的走势相反。对于市场逆转的一种解释是，市场对FOMC最初的声明反应过度，因为它“倾向于倾听”。然而，通过分析鲍威尔最近几次新闻发布会上的问答文本，再将最近几次新闻发布会上的市场走势与鲍威尔使用的语言联系起来，可以发现，其中的原因不仅仅是市场潜在的过度反应。例如，鲍威尔在2022年9月21日的新闻发布会上使用的语言，往往与FOMC声明中利好股市的部分有关，在此期间市场反弹，两年期国债收益率下降了近8个基点。而在2022年11月2日的会议上，他转向了明显更为负面的语言，在此期间股市下跌了近2%。这些市场逆转表明，FOMC的声明不再是美联储对利率指导的“最后决定”。图4展示了耶伦和鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会期间，两年期美国国债收益率的走势。在耶伦任期内，债市对FOMC声明的发布做出了迅速反应，并在新闻发布会后倾向于保持在这一水平附近。然而，在鲍威尔任期内，特别是在FOMC声明发布导致国债收益率上升的日子里，市场在新闻发布会上往往会逆转对FOMC声明发布的最初反应。这些模式表明，美联储新闻发布会的角色正在转变，正变得越来越重要，而且并不总是直接重申FOMC的声明。这种变化可能是沟通策略不断发展的必然结果：鲍威尔每年举行的新闻发布会数量也比他的前任增加了一倍，FOMC声明的长度、复杂性和观点的多样性随着时间的推移也发生了变化。还有一种可能的原因是，新闻发布会允许主席强调自己的观点，并先于其他委员会成员提出FOMC讨论中未被FOMC声明捕捉、但市场认为具有重要意义的部分。不过，偏离FOMC声明中的统一信息并导致市场波动加剧，这个结果可能与美联储的其他沟通目标不一致。股债市场的大幅波动显然与增加可预测性和减少不确定性的目标不相容。事实上，最近的会议在降低未来利率路径的不确定性方面不太成功。最后一种可能性是，将市场波动最小化的目标是错误的。一个“不太担心其行动对债市的直接影响的美联储或许能够在必要时更灵活地调整政策”。换句话说，当FOMC能像今天这样快速了解经济状况时，也许正是需要一位愿意推动市场走势的美联储主席。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949090990,"gmtCreate":1678228420610,"gmtModify":1678228424372,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582091132450948","authorIdStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949090990","repostId":"1145745223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":234472240578680,"gmtCreate":1698279967707,"gmtModify":1698279971955,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_513","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b88a974714a7fb6c069c91664088950c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582091132450948","idStr":"3582091132450948"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tesla 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