Terence_5890 personal page - To The Moon

Terence_5890

Terence_5890

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2023-10-26

tesla good must buy will up to $500 per share

2023-06-26

tiger woods and his dad and

2023-06-22

tiger woods and his dad got it from

2022-11-30

2022-03-04

👍

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-27

2022-04-03

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$$6.8

2021-09-19

?

@SPOT_ON:$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$Called GeForce Now, the new subscription service is from graphics processor maker Nvidia and made available to consumers through StarHub.It allows a user to play games without needing the latest game consoles or souped-up gaming computers that can cost hundreds to thousands of dollars.STARHUB LAUNCHING THE CLOUD GAMING BY NVIDIA!!HIGH CASH HIGH DIVIDEND STOCK $STARHUB LTD(CC3.SI)$

2022-12-14

👍good

2022-11-22

2021-07-27

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-09

$京東集團-SW(09618)$

2022-11-26

2021-09-15

?

腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？

2023-06-14

come and play tiger game tonight and get some

2023-04-12

tiger woods and his dad and dad were in town for some reason

2023-04-10

Tigers were a great game in my book but theyare a little too far for the team that is playing right away in their own

2023-04-06

tiget good nice power

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Good to play&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger game.&nbsp; Must try up. Good to play&nbsp;","text":"Tiger game. Must try up. Good to play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948825325","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943231046,"gmtCreate":1679470633986,"gmtModify":1679470637585,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hhh","listText":"hhh","text":"hhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943231046","repostId":"1100480684","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100480684","pubTimestamp":1679455925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100480684?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-22 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100480684","media":"金十数据","summary":"在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。</blockquote><p>全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。</p><p>加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但<b>投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会</b>，其影响力更加不容小觑。<b>研究发现，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的市场波动比他的前任高出三倍，而且他往往还能神奇地扭转市场对FOMC声明的最初反应。</b></p><p>在过去一年的六次新闻发布会期间，标普500指数的涨跌幅度超过1%，市值波动达到3000亿美元。鲍威尔主持的新闻发布往往会有两个特点。</p><blockquote>第一，在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。自2011年以来一直如此，但鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会尤其如此，这表明新闻发布会在塑造近期市场预期方面发挥了巨大作用。</blockquote><blockquote>第二，在新冠疫情大流行之前，新闻发布会倾向于强化FOMC的声明，市场在新闻发布会期间的走势与最初对声明做出的反应一致。然而，自新冠疫情大流行开始以来，股票和债券市场在新闻发布会期间的走势往往与市场对FOMC声明的最初反应相反。这种逆转与鲍威尔在讲话中的措辞有关系。</blockquote><p>图1展示了鲍威尔及其前任耶伦召开新闻发布会当天标普500指数回报率的波动情况。可以看出鲍威尔任期内的波动性要大得多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad8758b93fdf1e7013c31db3a1ba47b\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>图2总结了最近三位美联储主席在新闻发布会期间市场波动的升高情况。尽管在这三位主席召开的新闻发布会上，市场波动都会加剧，<b>但在鲍威尔任期内尤其明显：市场波动比前任主席任期内高出三倍</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a68b7309ffecfd3de0a34ad4b7c94d68\" tg-width=\"1111\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔的新闻发布会期间市场波动更加剧烈的一个解释可能是，在他的任期内，<b>宏观环境更加动荡</b>，其中包括疫情应对和随后的通胀抬头。此外，在FOMC声明发布后的几分钟内，不同主席任下的市场波动没有显著差异，<b>这表明鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的波动加剧并不是更令人惊讶的利率政策的结果</b>。</p><p>在伯南克和耶伦的领导下，美联储的新闻发布会通常会重申FOMC声明中传递的信息。如图3显示，在新闻发布会上，市场走势倾向于与FOMC发布声明后最初的走势一致。鲍威尔在新冠疫情前的会议上也是这样做的，但最近的会议却偏离了这一模式。自2020年3月以来，<b>市场在鲍威尔的新闻会议期间的走势往往与最初的走势相反</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d60b7f2c3e07ca9f5897b8a443d0ce4\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>对于市场逆转的一种解释是，市场对FOMC最初的声明反应过度，因为它“倾向于倾听”。然而，通过分析鲍威尔最近几次新闻发布会上的问答文本，再将最近几次新闻发布会上的市场走势与鲍威尔使用的语言联系起来，可以发现，其中的原因不仅仅是市场潜在的过度反应。</b></p><p>例如，鲍威尔在2022年9月21日的新闻发布会上使用的语言，往往与FOMC声明中利好股市的部分有关，在此期间市场反弹，两年期国债收益率下降了近8个基点。而在2022年11月2日的会议上，他转向了明显更为负面的语言，在此期间股市下跌了近2%。</p><p>这些市场逆转表明，<b>FOMC的声明不再是美联储对利率指导的“最后决定”</b>。</p><p>图4展示了耶伦和鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会期间，两年期美国国债收益率的走势。在耶伦任期内，债市对FOMC声明的发布做出了迅速反应，并在新闻发布会后倾向于保持在这一水平附近。然而，在鲍威尔任期内，特别是在FOMC声明发布导致国债收益率上升的日子里，市场在新闻发布会上往往会逆转对FOMC声明发布的最初反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2fc971c6f1e881633a94a00f61804f\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这些模式表明，<b>美联储新闻发布会的角色正在转变，正变得越来越重要，而且并不总是直接重申FOMC的声明。这种变化可能是沟通策略不断发展的必然结果：鲍威尔每年举行的新闻发布会数量也比他的前任增加了一倍，FOMC声明的长度、复杂性和观点的多样性随着时间的推移也发生了变化。</b></p><p>还有一种可能的原因是，<b>新闻发布会允许主席强调自己的观点，并先于其他委员会成员提出FOMC讨论中未被FOMC声明捕捉、但市场认为具有重要意义的部分。</b>不过，偏离FOMC声明中的统一信息并导致市场波动加剧，这个结果可能与美联储的其他沟通目标不一致。股债市场的大幅波动显然与增加可预测性和减少不确定性的目标不相容。事实上，最近的会议在降低未来利率路径的不确定性方面不太成功。</p><p>最后一种可能性是，<b>将市场波动最小化的目标是错误的</b>。<b>一个“不太担心其行动对债市的直接影响的美联储或许能够在必要时更灵活地调整政策”。</b>换句话说，当FOMC能像今天这样快速了解经济状况时，也许正是需要一位愿意推动市场走势的美联储主席。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n杀伤力提高了三倍！鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真恐怖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-22 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108822","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100480684","content_text":"美联储利率决议即将出炉，大家还在争辩加不加息，到底加几个基点。然而，鲍威尔的新闻发布会才是真“杀器”。全球市场正屏息等待即将于北京时间周四凌晨出炉的美联储3月利率决议，美联储这一次有多难已经被媒体疯狂渲染，至今市场对于此次决议的结果依然充满分歧。就在昨晚，加息预期全面升温，这次加息25个基点的概率重新突破了80%。加不加息？加息多少个基点？这些问题固然很重要，但投资者这次更加要重视会后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会，其影响力更加不容小觑。研究发现，鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的市场波动比他的前任高出三倍，而且他往往还能神奇地扭转市场对FOMC声明的最初反应。在过去一年的六次新闻发布会期间，标普500指数的涨跌幅度超过1%，市值波动达到3000亿美元。鲍威尔主持的新闻发布往往会有两个特点。第一，在FOMC新闻发布会期间，市场波动比其他时候更高。自2011年以来一直如此，但鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会尤其如此，这表明新闻发布会在塑造近期市场预期方面发挥了巨大作用。第二，在新冠疫情大流行之前，新闻发布会倾向于强化FOMC的声明，市场在新闻发布会期间的走势与最初对声明做出的反应一致。然而，自新冠疫情大流行开始以来，股票和债券市场在新闻发布会期间的走势往往与市场对FOMC声明的最初反应相反。这种逆转与鲍威尔在讲话中的措辞有关系。图1展示了鲍威尔及其前任耶伦召开新闻发布会当天标普500指数回报率的波动情况。可以看出鲍威尔任期内的波动性要大得多。图2总结了最近三位美联储主席在新闻发布会期间市场波动的升高情况。尽管在这三位主席召开的新闻发布会上，市场波动都会加剧，但在鲍威尔任期内尤其明显：市场波动比前任主席任期内高出三倍。鲍威尔的新闻发布会期间市场波动更加剧烈的一个解释可能是，在他的任期内，宏观环境更加动荡，其中包括疫情应对和随后的通胀抬头。此外，在FOMC声明发布后的几分钟内，不同主席任下的市场波动没有显著差异，这表明鲍威尔新闻发布会期间的波动加剧并不是更令人惊讶的利率政策的结果。在伯南克和耶伦的领导下，美联储的新闻发布会通常会重申FOMC声明中传递的信息。如图3显示，在新闻发布会上，市场走势倾向于与FOMC发布声明后最初的走势一致。鲍威尔在新冠疫情前的会议上也是这样做的，但最近的会议却偏离了这一模式。自2020年3月以来，市场在鲍威尔的新闻会议期间的走势往往与最初的走势相反。对于市场逆转的一种解释是，市场对FOMC最初的声明反应过度，因为它“倾向于倾听”。然而，通过分析鲍威尔最近几次新闻发布会上的问答文本，再将最近几次新闻发布会上的市场走势与鲍威尔使用的语言联系起来，可以发现，其中的原因不仅仅是市场潜在的过度反应。例如，鲍威尔在2022年9月21日的新闻发布会上使用的语言，往往与FOMC声明中利好股市的部分有关，在此期间市场反弹，两年期国债收益率下降了近8个基点。而在2022年11月2日的会议上，他转向了明显更为负面的语言，在此期间股市下跌了近2%。这些市场逆转表明，FOMC的声明不再是美联储对利率指导的“最后决定”。图4展示了耶伦和鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会期间，两年期美国国债收益率的走势。在耶伦任期内，债市对FOMC声明的发布做出了迅速反应，并在新闻发布会后倾向于保持在这一水平附近。然而，在鲍威尔任期内，特别是在FOMC声明发布导致国债收益率上升的日子里，市场在新闻发布会上往往会逆转对FOMC声明发布的最初反应。这些模式表明，美联储新闻发布会的角色正在转变，正变得越来越重要，而且并不总是直接重申FOMC的声明。这种变化可能是沟通策略不断发展的必然结果：鲍威尔每年举行的新闻发布会数量也比他的前任增加了一倍，FOMC声明的长度、复杂性和观点的多样性随着时间的推移也发生了变化。还有一种可能的原因是，新闻发布会允许主席强调自己的观点，并先于其他委员会成员提出FOMC讨论中未被FOMC声明捕捉、但市场认为具有重要意义的部分。不过，偏离FOMC声明中的统一信息并导致市场波动加剧，这个结果可能与美联储的其他沟通目标不一致。股债市场的大幅波动显然与增加可预测性和减少不确定性的目标不相容。事实上，最近的会议在降低未来利率路径的不确定性方面不太成功。最后一种可能性是，将市场波动最小化的目标是错误的。一个“不太担心其行动对债市的直接影响的美联储或许能够在必要时更灵活地调整政策”。换句话说，当FOMC能像今天这样快速了解经济状况时，也许正是需要一位愿意推动市场走势的美联储主席。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949090990,"gmtCreate":1678228420610,"gmtModify":1678228424372,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949090990","repostId":"1145745223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145745223","pubTimestamp":1678194660,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145745223?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-07 21:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新美联储传声筒”：鲍威尔或警告美联储的加息幅度将超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145745223","media":"金十数据","summary":"面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？</b></blockquote><p>周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。</p><p>鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。<b>这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就利率政策发表讲话，</b>因为美联储将于本周六进入“缄默期”。</p><p>继去年11月和12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点后，美联储在上个月放慢了加息步伐。其上个月将利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%的区间，目的是继续给经济降温来减轻价格压力。</p><p>美联储一直试图通过加息来抑制投资、支出和招聘，加息会提高借贷成本，并可能压低股票和房地产等资产的价格。联邦基金利率影响着整个经济中的其他借贷成本。</p><p>去年12月，大多数美联储官员认为，<b>今年他们将把联邦基金利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年</b>。他们将在即将召开的3月议息会议上提交新的预测。</p><p>Timiraos称，在2月1日的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，如果经济如官员们预期的那样放缓，他们可能会在3月和5月的每次会议上加息25个基点。</p><p>但他也警告称，<b>如果经济表现出惊人的强劲势头，美联储可能会进一步加息</b>。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上说：</p><blockquote>“我们将仔细研究从现在到3月会议之间的数据，如果我们认为我们需要将利率提高到12月所说的水平之上，我们肯定会这么做。”</blockquote><p>自他发表上述言论以来，几份经济报告显示，<b>1月份的就业、消费者支出和通胀都有所上升</b>。此外，修正后的数据显示，<b>通胀和劳动力需求放缓的程度并不像去年底最初报告的那样。</b></p><p>因此，几位美联储官员表示，<b>他们今年的加息幅度可能会超过此前的预期</b>。三位地区联储主席表示，上个月他们本可以支持更大幅度的加息，可能将在即将召开的3月会议上支持更大幅度的加息。</p><p><b>近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期</b>。在美联储召开的上次会议上，利率期货市场的投资者预计，<b>美联储官员今年只会再将联邦基金利率上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息</b>。根据芝商所的数据，<b>周一，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。</b></p><p>Timiraos表示，<b>投资者将仔细分析鲍威尔的措辞，以寻找美联储是否可能像普遍预期的那样加息25个基点，或者他是否可能表示愿意加息50个基点的线索。</b></p><p>不过，Timiraos认为，<b>鲍威尔本周在引导市场方面可能会受到限制</b>，<b>因为两份受到广泛关注的经济报告将在他作证之后和下次会议之前发布</b>，这两份报告可能会影响官员们的审议。美国劳工部将于本周五公布2月非农就业报告，美国2月CPI报告将在下周公布。</p><p>美国1月份新增非农就业人数为51.7万，而失业率则降至3.4%，为53年来的最低水平，这一数字令经济学家感到震惊，他们原本预计就业岗位将放缓。周五的最新非农就业报告可能会提供一些线索，说明就业增长是昙花一现，还是经济正在加速的迹象。</p><p>对于通胀，去年年底通胀的下降趋势在1月份暂缓。根据美国商务部的PCE数据，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源项目后的年通胀率为4.7%，高于去年12月的4.6%。</p><p>因受到新冠疫情的打击，美联储曾将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平，但在过去12个月里，美联储加息的幅度超过了上世纪80年代初以来的任何时候。官员们已经放慢了加息的步伐，以观察其举措的效果。</p><p>周二的听证会是鲍威尔自去年6月美联储将联邦基金利率上调至1.5%至1.75%区间以来首次在国会露面。少数民主党议员一直淡化对通胀的担忧，他们警告鲍威尔不要加息过快或过高，并对美联储急于通过寻求增加失业率来减缓经济增长表示担忧。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-07 21:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6a36ceb193aa7f7b4a920e3a909ada","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107918","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145745223","content_text":"面临多份“爆表”的数据，鲍威尔将如何塑造市场预期？周二晚，“新美联储传声筒”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文表示，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在国会山发出警告，称今年强劲的经济活动或将使美联储的加息幅度超出预期。鲍威尔将于美东时间周二上午10点开始作证（北京时间23点），为期两天。他将接受参议院银行委员会的质询，并将于周三继续接受众议院委员会的质询。这将是他在3月议息会议召开前最后一次就利率政策发表讲话，因为美联储将于本周六进入“缄默期”。继去年11月和12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点后，美联储在上个月放慢了加息步伐。其上个月将利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%的区间，目的是继续给经济降温来减轻价格压力。美联储一直试图通过加息来抑制投资、支出和招聘，加息会提高借贷成本，并可能压低股票和房地产等资产的价格。联邦基金利率影响着整个经济中的其他借贷成本。去年12月，大多数美联储官员认为，今年他们将把联邦基金利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年。他们将在即将召开的3月议息会议上提交新的预测。Timiraos称，在2月1日的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，如果经济如官员们预期的那样放缓，他们可能会在3月和5月的每次会议上加息25个基点。但他也警告称，如果经济表现出惊人的强劲势头，美联储可能会进一步加息。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上说：“我们将仔细研究从现在到3月会议之间的数据，如果我们认为我们需要将利率提高到12月所说的水平之上，我们肯定会这么做。”自他发表上述言论以来，几份经济报告显示，1月份的就业、消费者支出和通胀都有所上升。此外，修正后的数据显示，通胀和劳动力需求放缓的程度并不像去年底最初报告的那样。因此，几位美联储官员表示，他们今年的加息幅度可能会超过此前的预期。三位地区联储主席表示，上个月他们本可以支持更大幅度的加息，可能将在即将召开的3月会议上支持更大幅度的加息。近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期。在美联储召开的上次会议上，利率期货市场的投资者预计，美联储官员今年只会再将联邦基金利率上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息。根据芝商所的数据，周一，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。Timiraos表示，投资者将仔细分析鲍威尔的措辞，以寻找美联储是否可能像普遍预期的那样加息25个基点，或者他是否可能表示愿意加息50个基点的线索。不过，Timiraos认为，鲍威尔本周在引导市场方面可能会受到限制，因为两份受到广泛关注的经济报告将在他作证之后和下次会议之前发布，这两份报告可能会影响官员们的审议。美国劳工部将于本周五公布2月非农就业报告，美国2月CPI报告将在下周公布。美国1月份新增非农就业人数为51.7万，而失业率则降至3.4%，为53年来的最低水平，这一数字令经济学家感到震惊，他们原本预计就业岗位将放缓。周五的最新非农就业报告可能会提供一些线索，说明就业增长是昙花一现，还是经济正在加速的迹象。对于通胀，去年年底通胀的下降趋势在1月份暂缓。根据美国商务部的PCE数据，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源项目后的年通胀率为4.7%，高于去年12月的4.6%。因受到新冠疫情的打击，美联储曾将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平，但在过去12个月里，美联储加息的幅度超过了上世纪80年代初以来的任何时候。官员们已经放慢了加息的步伐，以观察其举措的效果。周二的听证会是鲍威尔自去年6月美联储将联邦基金利率上调至1.5%至1.75%区间以来首次在国会露面。少数民主党议员一直淡化对通胀的担忧，他们警告鲍威尔不要加息过快或过高，并对美联储急于通过寻求增加失业率来减缓经济增长表示担忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":234472240578680,"gmtCreate":1698279967707,"gmtModify":1698279971955,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tesla 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966396219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882951674,"gmtCreate":1631656476698,"gmtModify":1676530599145,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/882951674","repostId":"1149180242","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149180242","pubTimestamp":1631619850,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149180242?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 19:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149180242","media":"见实","summary":"随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪","content":"<p>随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。</p>\n<p>这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？</p>\n<p><b>01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴</b></p>\n<p>三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：</p>\n<p>海量用户会将阿里平台上的商品链接、字节跳动（包含<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>）的内容链接分享过来，并因此带走巨大流量。</p>\n<p>我们尝试找到一些历史数据，来间接说明这些分享量、回流量的恐怖量级。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab009836e6e66e605e7dcc62ed7deed3\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这是2018年时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688179\">阿拉丁</a>小程序指数对微信小程序平台上的各类信息，分别进行分享率和回流率大数据统计后，分享给《见实》的结论。</p>\n<p>以其中内容资讯为例，每100人阅读，就有2.6人分享到社交平台<b>（分享率）</b>，每次分享带回6.91个流量<b>（回流率）</b>。每100人购买商品，会有0.68个用户分享商品链接至社交平台，每次分享带回1.70个流量。</p>\n<p>这些数据看起来一般，但如果乘以字节跳动和阿里巴巴的巨大体量，将会是一个让所有行业绝对仰望的数字。</p>\n<p>《见实》尝试从畅销书《小群效应》中找到一张图表来辅助说明。这根曲线通常用来解读：</p>\n<p>在现在社交网络中，最热门现象和服务会占据所在行业80%-90%以上用户目光。<b>处于社交网络头部区域的数百家企业，会获得绝大部分社交红利，这是非常典型的“幂律曲线”。</b></p>\n<p>分享也是如此。记忆中，2015年前排名头部前三的企业，仅在一天时间中被用户分享到腾讯系的信息量，就超过<b>1100万</b>条。</p>\n<p>六年后的今天，三大平台互向对方开放后，字节跳动和阿里巴巴每天可不止1100万信息量分享到微信，真实量级或会数倍于此。这么庞大分享量，不论是乘以6.91回流率，还是1.70回流率，都足够开心。</p>\n<p><b>因为是免费的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为对阿里和字节来说是额外、直接增长的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。</b>尤其当这两大平台重大事件、重大活动（如双11、618）时，当这两大平台持续优化各种分享文案时，回流和转化数据更会以数倍上涨。</p>\n<p>无论如何，整个腾讯（尤其是微信），向外界平台分流的第一、第二名，一定会变成字节跳动（甚至可能抖音和今日头条分据前二）、阿里巴巴（如果拆分，则天猫和淘宝、淘特可能占据接下来的第三名到第五名）。</p>\n<p>不得不提一句：</p>\n<p><b>用户时间和注意力是有限的，不论是分享信息，还是点击阅读和参与活动。</b></p>\n<p>当阿里巴巴和字节跳动冲入到社交网络大盘子时，对于其他公司恐怕就不是那么开心了。因为蛋糕的最大份，被直接切走了。</p>\n<p><b>02、抖音电商和阿里</b><b>交易额上扬</b></p>\n<p>刚才描述了社交网络（微信）回流量的庞大，我们特意没有提及社交对电商订单转化带来的影响，是因为这个数量同样诱人。</p>\n<p>几组基础数据可以先用来参考：</p>\n<p>-&nbsp;大平均上，每两个分享到社交网络中的商品链接，就有一个会转化订单。</p>\n<p>作为对比，过去在社交电商类社区中，每100个浏览行为可以产生7次订单转化。</p>\n<p>- 按照腾讯2021年半年度财报所公布数据，小程序交易额继续以100%速度上涨，今年全年交易额或远超3.2万亿人民币。</p>\n<p>万亿规模是一个非常庞大的难以跃升的门槛，如快手最新财报就显示，其电商交易总额为人民币1454亿元。而近日行业传言，抖音电商将跨过一年万亿成交总额门槛。</p>\n<p>在越过万亿级别的平台中，除去微信小程序总交易额、抖音电商，还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>。2020年度财报显示，该平台在当年交易总额（GMV）<b>近1.67万亿</b>，较2019年的10066亿元同比增长66%。</p>\n<p>淘宝联盟当下产生交易额暂时查询不到，2020年5月28日时，淘宝曾对外称，希望加速实现<b>“三年内达到1万亿的目标”</b>。</p>\n<p>当微信的链接大门打开，意味着抖音电商、阿里巴巴的交易额将会获得巨大增长。他们将有可能从小程序3.2万亿体量和拼多多1.67万亿体量中，直接撕走一大块。</p>\n<p>尤其是<b>抖音电商，受益最大。</b></p>\n<p><b>03、抖音系APP下载受益</b></p>\n<p>娱乐系视频内容在社交网络中从来最受欢迎。从内容到下载的路径，也是最简单直接、最为通透。</p>\n<p>《见实》援引《小群效应》中的一张图，来说明这类APP下载转化比例：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f528003f0d479874d2ce810dfe01f5e8\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图并非是抖音的社交下载数据，而是来自此前某一款新创APP的后台数据截图。只是和抖音类似，同为娱乐属性。从表中可见，几乎是每一次分享，都会带来接近一次的下载和注册新增。</p>\n<p>在没有开放链接的情况下，抖音视频都顽强体现在无数微信群中。参照上述下载比例，大开放后字节系中包括抖音、西瓜等在内的APP下载增量、用户注册增量仍会继续增长。刚才一组话我们甚至可以直接复用：</p>\n<p><b>因为是免费的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为对字节来说是额外、直接增长的。</b></p>\n<p><b>因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。</b>尤其当有重大事件、优质爆款内容产生时，当字节系持续优化各种分享文案时，APP下载转化数据仍会继续上升。</p>\n<p><b>04、私域电商会受益</b></p>\n<p>如果链接网址大开放了，抖音和阿里巴巴会继续屏蔽“微信”这个关键词、依然禁止用户关注商家的微信吗？</p>\n<p>答案显然不会。业界正在感受着有关部门打通互联障碍的决心。如果是这样，那么私域电商会极大受益，企业会十分开心。</p>\n<p>过去不互通时，企业都在通过快递、红包等形式，顽强吸引着用户关注商家微信，沉淀到私域流量池中进行长期维护、持续复购转化。</p>\n<p><b>回顾历史，私域虽在微信生态落地生根，却是阿里巴巴商家催生出来的玩法。</b></p>\n<p>现在，当允许商家在阿里巴巴和抖音上关联微信或企业微信时，私域电商会继续增长。企业可以将更多财力和人力投入到私域运营中去，因此运营成本、广告成本反而会更低，利润上升。</p>\n<p>此外，关系链对电商持续施加的影响，注定了用户更加相信“信任”、“好友”。</p>\n<p>私域电商会获得更大发展。</p>\n<p>而且，现在抖音已经迅速布局私域，阿里巴巴重度布局私域各类基础设施的日子也不会远了。一旦阿里再进入，更多红利会释放给到各类品牌企业。</p>\n<p>微信小程序GMV虽然早期会受到一定影响，长期看，基础更坚实，交易额规模仍然会稳步增长。</p>\n<p><b>受益的，会是无数品牌企业。</b></p>\n<p><b>腾讯和微信也将大受益。</b>更多品牌和用户之间的关系，将沉淀在微信私域中。</p>\n<p>同样是2021年度上半年财报中，腾讯几乎在猛夸私域，是因为借助私域这根线，腾讯在广告、云、智慧零售、支付等等一系列重要市场中，获得了极大提升。</p>\n<p><b>05、可能的平台调整</b></p>\n<p>动辄就是万亿电商规模，动辄就是每天数以千万级用户流动，三大平台之间怎么会不谨慎对待？</p>\n<p>首先是不必担心平台的小动作。这在有关部门的发声中早就严厉预警：</p>\n<p>“要求企业按照整改要求，务实推动分步骤、分阶段得到解决。下一步，一是加强行政指导，对整改不到位的企业督促落实；二是加强监督检查，通过多种方式确保问题整改到位；三是对整改不彻底的企业，处罚一批典型违规企业。”</p>\n<p>三大平台推出的可能的新规则，或会有几个：</p>\n<p><b>一是付费接口会诞生。</b>超过一定调用数量的接口，需要付费，这对大平台来说其实是很小的支出，估计会欣然接受。</p>\n<p><b>二是在接口调用权限有明显分级。</b>这其实已是现状，如许多新应用，当分享量在短时间内超过一定数量后，会被自然限制，直到第二天再度解锁。</p>\n<p><b>三是现有规则之下，许多标准和要求会由用户来掌控。</b>如投诉量超过一定数量或比例后，接口调用权限会下降（比如每天分享次数由千万级下降到百万级、万级）；用户也可以要求去重显示某些链接，如某一类链接频繁出现在自己面前时，要求不再重复出现。</p>\n<p><b>四是三大平台对于灰色应用、灰色账号、灰色行为的打击，会越加严厉。</b></p>\n<p>最后简单看，三大平台各自受益不同角度。且打通后，在这些平台上的企业运营会变得更便利，不再需要想尽一切办法去规避平台禁令。运营成本下降，利润上升。跨平台运营这件事，或会变成一个新的大生意。</p>","source":"lsy1595213610726","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯阿里字节链接互通：谁将是大赢家？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-14 19:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3NTU5NDc0NA==&mid=2247528476&idx=1&sn=301d3d1c0ceee7e6100c65b0209a9607&chksm=fd22f98bca55709da708312d179f911f3bf6e62e392bdd6953b3e4f49968caf36d070b6ba644&scene=27#wechat_redirect><strong>见实</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？\n01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴\n三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3NTU5NDc0NA==&mid=2247528476&idx=1&sn=301d3d1c0ceee7e6100c65b0209a9607&chksm=fd22f98bca55709da708312d179f911f3bf6e62e392bdd6953b3e4f49968caf36d070b6ba644&scene=27#wechat_redirect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BABA":"阿里巴巴","00700":"腾讯控股","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3NTU5NDc0NA==&mid=2247528476&idx=1&sn=301d3d1c0ceee7e6100c65b0209a9607&chksm=fd22f98bca55709da708312d179f911f3bf6e62e392bdd6953b3e4f49968caf36d070b6ba644&scene=27#wechat_redirect","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149180242","content_text":"随着有关部门明确要求“保障合法合规的网址正常访问”，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动三大平台在昨日（9月13日）均对外回应称，将按要求分阶段分步骤地实施。\n这意味着互相大开放已成定局。那么，这三大平台将会在哪些地方受益？更多企业和创业者在这个前所未有的开放中，以什么方式、怎么受益、受益多大？\n01、用户流向字节跳动和阿里巴巴\n三大平台平等打开大门后，腾讯（尤其是微信）将会面临第一波潮涌般分享而来的信息：\n海量用户会将阿里平台上的商品链接、字节跳动（包含抖音）的内容链接分享过来，并因此带走巨大流量。\n我们尝试找到一些历史数据，来间接说明这些分享量、回流量的恐怖量级。\n\n这是2018年时，阿拉丁小程序指数对微信小程序平台上的各类信息，分别进行分享率和回流率大数据统计后，分享给《见实》的结论。\n以其中内容资讯为例，每100人阅读，就有2.6人分享到社交平台（分享率），每次分享带回6.91个流量（回流率）。每100人购买商品，会有0.68个用户分享商品链接至社交平台，每次分享带回1.70个流量。\n这些数据看起来一般，但如果乘以字节跳动和阿里巴巴的巨大体量，将会是一个让所有行业绝对仰望的数字。\n《见实》尝试从畅销书《小群效应》中找到一张图表来辅助说明。这根曲线通常用来解读：\n在现在社交网络中，最热门现象和服务会占据所在行业80%-90%以上用户目光。处于社交网络头部区域的数百家企业，会获得绝大部分社交红利，这是非常典型的“幂律曲线”。\n分享也是如此。记忆中，2015年前排名头部前三的企业，仅在一天时间中被用户分享到腾讯系的信息量，就超过1100万条。\n六年后的今天，三大平台互向对方开放后，字节跳动和阿里巴巴每天可不止1100万信息量分享到微信，真实量级或会数倍于此。这么庞大分享量，不论是乘以6.91回流率，还是1.70回流率，都足够开心。\n因为是免费的。\n因为对阿里和字节来说是额外、直接增长的。\n因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。尤其当这两大平台重大事件、重大活动（如双11、618）时，当这两大平台持续优化各种分享文案时，回流和转化数据更会以数倍上涨。\n无论如何，整个腾讯（尤其是微信），向外界平台分流的第一、第二名，一定会变成字节跳动（甚至可能抖音和今日头条分据前二）、阿里巴巴（如果拆分，则天猫和淘宝、淘特可能占据接下来的第三名到第五名）。\n不得不提一句：\n用户时间和注意力是有限的，不论是分享信息，还是点击阅读和参与活动。\n当阿里巴巴和字节跳动冲入到社交网络大盘子时，对于其他公司恐怕就不是那么开心了。因为蛋糕的最大份，被直接切走了。\n02、抖音电商和阿里交易额上扬\n刚才描述了社交网络（微信）回流量的庞大，我们特意没有提及社交对电商订单转化带来的影响，是因为这个数量同样诱人。\n几组基础数据可以先用来参考：\n- 大平均上，每两个分享到社交网络中的商品链接，就有一个会转化订单。\n作为对比，过去在社交电商类社区中，每100个浏览行为可以产生7次订单转化。\n- 按照腾讯2021年半年度财报所公布数据，小程序交易额继续以100%速度上涨，今年全年交易额或远超3.2万亿人民币。\n万亿规模是一个非常庞大的难以跃升的门槛，如快手最新财报就显示，其电商交易总额为人民币1454亿元。而近日行业传言，抖音电商将跨过一年万亿成交总额门槛。\n在越过万亿级别的平台中，除去微信小程序总交易额、抖音电商，还有拼多多。2020年度财报显示，该平台在当年交易总额（GMV）近1.67万亿，较2019年的10066亿元同比增长66%。\n淘宝联盟当下产生交易额暂时查询不到，2020年5月28日时，淘宝曾对外称，希望加速实现“三年内达到1万亿的目标”。\n当微信的链接大门打开，意味着抖音电商、阿里巴巴的交易额将会获得巨大增长。他们将有可能从小程序3.2万亿体量和拼多多1.67万亿体量中，直接撕走一大块。\n尤其是抖音电商，受益最大。\n03、抖音系APP下载受益\n娱乐系视频内容在社交网络中从来最受欢迎。从内容到下载的路径，也是最简单直接、最为通透。\n《见实》援引《小群效应》中的一张图，来说明这类APP下载转化比例：\n\n这张图并非是抖音的社交下载数据，而是来自此前某一款新创APP的后台数据截图。只是和抖音类似，同为娱乐属性。从表中可见，几乎是每一次分享，都会带来接近一次的下载和注册新增。\n在没有开放链接的情况下，抖音视频都顽强体现在无数微信群中。参照上述下载比例，大开放后字节系中包括抖音、西瓜等在内的APP下载增量、用户注册增量仍会继续增长。刚才一组话我们甚至可以直接复用：\n因为是免费的。\n因为对字节来说是额外、直接增长的。\n因为这个数据量还将持续、自然增长。尤其当有重大事件、优质爆款内容产生时，当字节系持续优化各种分享文案时，APP下载转化数据仍会继续上升。\n04、私域电商会受益\n如果链接网址大开放了，抖音和阿里巴巴会继续屏蔽“微信”这个关键词、依然禁止用户关注商家的微信吗？\n答案显然不会。业界正在感受着有关部门打通互联障碍的决心。如果是这样，那么私域电商会极大受益，企业会十分开心。\n过去不互通时，企业都在通过快递、红包等形式，顽强吸引着用户关注商家微信，沉淀到私域流量池中进行长期维护、持续复购转化。\n回顾历史，私域虽在微信生态落地生根，却是阿里巴巴商家催生出来的玩法。\n现在，当允许商家在阿里巴巴和抖音上关联微信或企业微信时，私域电商会继续增长。企业可以将更多财力和人力投入到私域运营中去，因此运营成本、广告成本反而会更低，利润上升。\n此外，关系链对电商持续施加的影响，注定了用户更加相信“信任”、“好友”。\n私域电商会获得更大发展。\n而且，现在抖音已经迅速布局私域，阿里巴巴重度布局私域各类基础设施的日子也不会远了。一旦阿里再进入，更多红利会释放给到各类品牌企业。\n微信小程序GMV虽然早期会受到一定影响，长期看，基础更坚实，交易额规模仍然会稳步增长。\n受益的，会是无数品牌企业。\n腾讯和微信也将大受益。更多品牌和用户之间的关系，将沉淀在微信私域中。\n同样是2021年度上半年财报中，腾讯几乎在猛夸私域，是因为借助私域这根线，腾讯在广告、云、智慧零售、支付等等一系列重要市场中，获得了极大提升。\n05、可能的平台调整\n动辄就是万亿电商规模，动辄就是每天数以千万级用户流动，三大平台之间怎么会不谨慎对待？\n首先是不必担心平台的小动作。这在有关部门的发声中早就严厉预警：\n“要求企业按照整改要求，务实推动分步骤、分阶段得到解决。下一步，一是加强行政指导，对整改不到位的企业督促落实；二是加强监督检查，通过多种方式确保问题整改到位；三是对整改不彻底的企业，处罚一批典型违规企业。”\n三大平台推出的可能的新规则，或会有几个：\n一是付费接口会诞生。超过一定调用数量的接口，需要付费，这对大平台来说其实是很小的支出，估计会欣然接受。\n二是在接口调用权限有明显分级。这其实已是现状，如许多新应用，当分享量在短时间内超过一定数量后，会被自然限制，直到第二天再度解锁。\n三是现有规则之下，许多标准和要求会由用户来掌控。如投诉量超过一定数量或比例后，接口调用权限会下降（比如每天分享次数由千万级下降到百万级、万级）；用户也可以要求去重显示某些链接，如某一类链接频繁出现在自己面前时，要求不再重复出现。\n四是三大平台对于灰色应用、灰色账号、灰色行为的打击，会越加严厉。\n最后简单看，三大平台各自受益不同角度。且打通后，在这些平台上的企业运营会变得更便利，不再需要想尽一切办法去规避平台禁令。运营成本下降，利润上升。跨平台运营这件事，或会变成一个新的大生意。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187035614290032,"gmtCreate":1686702458685,"gmtModify":1686702462837,"author":{"id":"3582091132450948","authorId":"3582091132450948","name":"Terence_5890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f73fc45de76f121bfe90507e70b0e9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"come 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