mingming88 personal page - To The Moon

mingming88

mingming88

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08-30

👍🏻👍🏻

02-26

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

02-19

✨

01-13

🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯

01-12

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01-11

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01-10

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01-09

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01-08

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01-07

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01-06

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01-03

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01-02

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01-01

🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🥳🥳💪🥳🥳💯💯💯💯💯👍👍👍👍👍

2023-12-31

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2023-12-30

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2023-12-29

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2023-12-26

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luck","text":"Good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802349116","repostId":"2155688721","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155688721","pubTimestamp":1627701182,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155688721?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 11:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"百度放不下游戏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155688721","media":"镜像娱乐","summary":"百度再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。\n7月28日，百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开，现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。</p>\n<p>7月28日，百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开，现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return》《Garden》等14款休闲游戏，以及《武庚纪》《梦想<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">新大陆</a>》等9款重度游戏。可以看出，百度游戏未来将着力于休闲+重度游戏两条赛道，尝试跳出以发行为主的模式，转而以发行、自研并重，同时探索国际市场。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a57d99cd21d4a4e96e39ef0a7df836\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>从战略到产品，百度游戏此举可以视作其重返赛场的一个重要举动。作为一个拥有巨大流量池的互联网巨头，百度做游戏其实一直被业内看好。然而，直到2017年百度剥离游戏业务时，平台也没有找到适合自己的发展模式。</p>\n<p>而今，游戏行业风云变幻，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>分走大块蛋糕，阿里、字节跳动、B站等头部势力加码，海外市场竞争愈演愈烈，游戏行业新势力更是如雨后春笋……选择此时返场的百度游戏，也让当下的竞争环境变得更加复杂。</p>\n<h3><b>流量变现的重头戏</b></h3>\n<p>发布会上，百度游戏总经理徐建将未来的发展方向归纳为两点：一点是做服务，即基于自身流量生态和产品矩阵，为游戏厂商提供发行服务；另一点则在于做产品，或与行业伙伴合作、或自主研发，推出具备竞争力的游戏产品。</p>\n<p>从这两点来看，百度游戏此次返场，步子相对稳健，布局方向都建立在自身优势上。</p>\n<p>其一，游戏一直都是流量变现的重头戏，而百度是一个拥有10亿用户的流量生态，仅在百度APP，月活便超过5.4亿。并且，据官方披露，用户在百度搜索游戏相关内容的日均次数达到1亿次，其中为找游戏的用户占比为25.3%，玩游戏的占比为45.5%，找服务的占比为29.2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d82ae2c46c176ed12cdee8a4ee00afbb\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>换言之，百度目前仍是网民接触游戏的一个重要入口，生态内每天产生的亿级流量都与游戏相关，这也是百度不可能轻易放掉游戏业务的关键所在。</p>\n<p>其二，围绕百度自身的流量生态，一方面，搜索业务的服务能力，使平台与国内诸多游戏厂商都存在合作关系；另一方面，百度在剥离游戏业务之前，其游戏发行也有过一些高光时刻。2011年时，百度基于贴吧生态搭建“社区化小游戏平台”，涉足游戏分发，3天累计用户便超过7000万。</p>\n<p>从广告到发行，百度在游戏行业的连接能力，使之能够更便捷地找到合作伙伴，为之后的联运、发行等业务打下基础。此次发布会上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09990\">祖龙娱乐</a>、悠米互娱等都是百度游戏联合开发产品的合作方。徐建还透露，百度游戏也准备构建新的开发者平台，将给出诸多策略扶持和让利。</p>\n<p>其三，尽管百度目前已经与腾讯、阿里拉开了距离，但百度仍是处在第一梯队的互联网巨头，若平台将资本向游戏倾斜，在财力支持下未必没有与其他平台一战的实力。目前，百度游戏已经完成了两个自研团队的搭建，正式进入开发阶段。</p>\n<p>但是，从百度游戏发布的产品来看，休闲游戏仍占据更大比例，而在用户粘性更高的重度游戏中，“代号”产品居多，落地时间并不明朗。这意味着百度在真正形成竞争力之前，还有一段很长的路要走，且这条路并不容易。</p>\n<h3><b>不能“丢”的游戏业务</b></h3>\n<p>百度重拾游戏业务并不让人意外，尤其是在近几年，百度一直都在搜索业务之外，寻找新的收入增长点。</p>\n<p>回到2017年，百度以近12亿的价格出售了百度游戏，这一动作是百度实施“航母计划”的一环。当时，百度通过业务“分拆”，将文学、视频、游戏、音乐、地图、外卖等版块独立运营，业内对此普遍认为，百度在尝试摆脱对搜索业务的依赖。同一时期，百度也进一步发力人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>的新方向，尝试向智能科技公司转型。沿着这一发展脉络来看，如今的百度，或许更需要游戏了。</p>\n<p>首先，从其内部发展而言，业务“分拆”的思路并没有帮助百度在多领域建立优势。</p>\n<p>在这之中，百度发展最好的视频业务孵化出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>，但爱奇艺至今累计亏损已达上百亿，不仅不赚钱，还消耗着巨额运营成本。此外，百度地图市场渗透率虽然较高，但地图业务的变现模式尚不清晰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc6630b89c5e58130682294de8830bf\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而在其他业务方面，文学领域至今仍是阅文一家独大；音乐市场中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>占据更大份额，网易云音乐后来居上；外卖行业中，美团、饿了么两强相争……相比之下，百度并没有形成与之相抗的实力，在业绩贡献上也难以成为未来的新支柱。</p>\n<p>其次，在外部竞争环境上，百度面临的压力越来越大。</p>\n<p>近几年，业内开始频繁地讨论，字节跳动会不会取代百度成为第三大互联网巨头？在这背后，双方之间虽然没有正面冲突，但字节跳动却在一步步蚕食曾属于百度的市场。</p>\n<p>说到底，百度和字节跳动所做的都是信息分发，而后者抓住了移动互联网崛起的契机，并以独特的算法抢占市场，后来基于同样的算法体系入局短视频，并建立自身的广告体系和变现模型。在这一过程中，受到冲击最大的便是百度。也就是说，百度搜索业务所覆盖的市场已经受到威胁，寻找新的业绩增长点正变得越来越迫切。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd74003ddc66f316f5a4afa89fa7e74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>字节跳动游戏《仙境传说RO：新世代的诞生》，月流水达到1.5亿</p>\n<p>再者，对百度自身的发展而言，人工智能的新定位还没有成规模的变现机会。</p>\n<p>财报数据显示，截至2020年第四季度，百度来自搜索服务与交易服务的收入，在总收入中占比将近80%，而公司来自AI及云服务的收入占比则不足20%。</p>\n<p>在人工智能的业绩创造力形成之前，发力流量变现效率更高的游戏业务，或许是百度更好的选择。且就技术发展对云游戏的赋能来看，提前布局游戏业务，未来也能更高效地与公司的技术实力共振。</p>\n<h3><b>微妙的返场时机</b></h3>\n<p>实际上，尽管百度曾高调出售百度游戏，但从未真正离开过这个市场。</p>\n<p>当初，百度游戏被剥离后更名为多酷游戏，仍然作为百度在游戏业务上唯一的平台级入口，与百度保持紧密的合作关系。同一年，百度APP接入智能小游戏入口；2019年，百度则投资了游戏公司蝴蝶互动；直到今年，百度申请注册“百度游戏”、“百度游戏 MG.BAIDU.COM DU”等商标，并于前不久召开品牌发布会，正式在这一赛道上“重启”。百度似乎一直在等待机会，但选择此时返场，这个时机还是有些微妙。</p>\n<p>从表面上看，当下，游戏市场的竞争越来越激烈。腾讯、网易两大头部势力仍无可撼动，阿里、字节跳动、B站等互联网巨头也开始在这一市场划分势力范围。</p>\n<p>在国内，阿里在游戏领域持续深耕之后，孵化出的《三国志·战略版》《三国志幻想大陆》表现亮眼，双双登上App Store手游收入排行榜TOP10。其中，仅在2020上半年，《三国志·战略版》的总流水便达到37亿。以此为起点，阿里逐渐在游戏领域站稳脚跟；字节跳动近来在游戏市场的步子也越来越大。今年3月，公司以260亿元的高价收购游戏公司沐瞳科技，将东南亚影响力最大的MOBA游戏《无尽对决》收入囊中；此外，B站也通过资本布局，在二次元游戏赛道上持续巩固实力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2557f4955deb03cc8a5e455e81407a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在国外，伴随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00799\">IGG</a>、莉莉丝等游戏厂商从海外市场涌现出来，这一市场也成为更多国内头部势力的布局范围，原本的蓝海优势正在激烈的竞争中逐渐消退，新入场者抢占市场份额的难度也在加大。</p>\n<p>然而，在这样的发展环境下，一些新势力还是“冒出头来”。尤其是《原神》的出现，在上线30天内收入便达到2.45亿美元，一度超越《王者荣耀》《和平精英》同期收入，位列全球手游收入榜首位。背后的公司米哈游也随之变得炙手可热。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa4d5c6dc9ad9c4c73abc473abf4cd38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这一现象的出现，刺激了头部势力的敏感神经，也加速了巨头“围猎”的脚步。以动作最大的腾讯为例，据镜像娱乐统计，2021年上半年，腾讯参与投资的游戏公司多达49家，平均每4天便投资一家公司。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/643cf0b0e11b9df8d22b62da650634e1\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"2866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>然而，透过这一现象，其实也反映出，一方面，当下的游戏市场还远未饱和，市场能够容下更多爆款游戏产品；另一方面，激烈的竞争环境，也为当下的游戏市场带来更多变数。在爆款终会被新的爆款替代的行业规律之下，新入局者并非没有机会，或许这才是百度选择此时返场的关键所在。</p>\n<p>但是，机会都是留给有准备的人，百度显然落后太多。发布会现场，百度游戏副总经理王慧也坦言：“重启后的百度团队优势仍不明显，团队一直在思考如何利用百度的资源，走出百度游戏自己的路。”但在变幻莫测的游戏市场之上，留给百度思考的时间已然不多了。</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度放不下游戏</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百度放不下游戏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 11:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1333416961169408><strong>镜像娱乐</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>百度再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。\n7月28日，百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开，现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return》《Garden》等14款休闲游戏，以及《武庚纪》《梦想新大陆》等9款重度游戏。可以看出，百度游戏未来将着力于休闲+重度游戏两条赛道，尝试跳出以发行为主的模式，转而以发行、自研并重，同时探索国际市场。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1333416961169408\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d671f82579a0f7a86039a21fe8fc002","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1333416961169408","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155688721","content_text":"百度再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。\n7月28日，百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开，现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return》《Garden》等14款休闲游戏，以及《武庚纪》《梦想新大陆》等9款重度游戏。可以看出，百度游戏未来将着力于休闲+重度游戏两条赛道，尝试跳出以发行为主的模式，转而以发行、自研并重，同时探索国际市场。\n\n从战略到产品，百度游戏此举可以视作其重返赛场的一个重要举动。作为一个拥有巨大流量池的互联网巨头，百度做游戏其实一直被业内看好。然而，直到2017年百度剥离游戏业务时，平台也没有找到适合自己的发展模式。\n而今，游戏行业风云变幻，腾讯、网易分走大块蛋糕，阿里、字节跳动、B站等头部势力加码，海外市场竞争愈演愈烈，游戏行业新势力更是如雨后春笋……选择此时返场的百度游戏，也让当下的竞争环境变得更加复杂。\n流量变现的重头戏\n发布会上，百度游戏总经理徐建将未来的发展方向归纳为两点：一点是做服务，即基于自身流量生态和产品矩阵，为游戏厂商提供发行服务；另一点则在于做产品，或与行业伙伴合作、或自主研发，推出具备竞争力的游戏产品。\n从这两点来看，百度游戏此次返场，步子相对稳健，布局方向都建立在自身优势上。\n其一，游戏一直都是流量变现的重头戏，而百度是一个拥有10亿用户的流量生态，仅在百度APP，月活便超过5.4亿。并且，据官方披露，用户在百度搜索游戏相关内容的日均次数达到1亿次，其中为找游戏的用户占比为25.3%，玩游戏的占比为45.5%，找服务的占比为29.2%。\n\n换言之，百度目前仍是网民接触游戏的一个重要入口，生态内每天产生的亿级流量都与游戏相关，这也是百度不可能轻易放掉游戏业务的关键所在。\n其二，围绕百度自身的流量生态，一方面，搜索业务的服务能力，使平台与国内诸多游戏厂商都存在合作关系；另一方面，百度在剥离游戏业务之前，其游戏发行也有过一些高光时刻。2011年时，百度基于贴吧生态搭建“社区化小游戏平台”，涉足游戏分发，3天累计用户便超过7000万。\n从广告到发行，百度在游戏行业的连接能力，使之能够更便捷地找到合作伙伴，为之后的联运、发行等业务打下基础。此次发布会上，祖龙娱乐、悠米互娱等都是百度游戏联合开发产品的合作方。徐建还透露，百度游戏也准备构建新的开发者平台，将给出诸多策略扶持和让利。\n其三，尽管百度目前已经与腾讯、阿里拉开了距离，但百度仍是处在第一梯队的互联网巨头，若平台将资本向游戏倾斜，在财力支持下未必没有与其他平台一战的实力。目前，百度游戏已经完成了两个自研团队的搭建，正式进入开发阶段。\n但是，从百度游戏发布的产品来看，休闲游戏仍占据更大比例，而在用户粘性更高的重度游戏中，“代号”产品居多，落地时间并不明朗。这意味着百度在真正形成竞争力之前，还有一段很长的路要走，且这条路并不容易。\n不能“丢”的游戏业务\n百度重拾游戏业务并不让人意外，尤其是在近几年，百度一直都在搜索业务之外，寻找新的收入增长点。\n回到2017年，百度以近12亿的价格出售了百度游戏，这一动作是百度实施“航母计划”的一环。当时，百度通过业务“分拆”，将文学、视频、游戏、音乐、地图、外卖等版块独立运营，业内对此普遍认为，百度在尝试摆脱对搜索业务的依赖。同一时期，百度也进一步发力人工智能的新方向，尝试向智能科技公司转型。沿着这一发展脉络来看，如今的百度，或许更需要游戏了。\n首先，从其内部发展而言，业务“分拆”的思路并没有帮助百度在多领域建立优势。\n在这之中，百度发展最好的视频业务孵化出爱奇艺，但爱奇艺至今累计亏损已达上百亿，不仅不赚钱，还消耗着巨额运营成本。此外，百度地图市场渗透率虽然较高，但地图业务的变现模式尚不清晰。\n\n而在其他业务方面，文学领域至今仍是阅文一家独大；音乐市场中腾讯音乐占据更大份额，网易云音乐后来居上；外卖行业中，美团、饿了么两强相争……相比之下，百度并没有形成与之相抗的实力，在业绩贡献上也难以成为未来的新支柱。\n其次，在外部竞争环境上，百度面临的压力越来越大。\n近几年，业内开始频繁地讨论，字节跳动会不会取代百度成为第三大互联网巨头？在这背后，双方之间虽然没有正面冲突，但字节跳动却在一步步蚕食曾属于百度的市场。\n说到底，百度和字节跳动所做的都是信息分发，而后者抓住了移动互联网崛起的契机，并以独特的算法抢占市场，后来基于同样的算法体系入局短视频，并建立自身的广告体系和变现模型。在这一过程中，受到冲击最大的便是百度。也就是说，百度搜索业务所覆盖的市场已经受到威胁，寻找新的业绩增长点正变得越来越迫切。\n\n字节跳动游戏《仙境传说RO：新世代的诞生》，月流水达到1.5亿\n再者，对百度自身的发展而言，人工智能的新定位还没有成规模的变现机会。\n财报数据显示，截至2020年第四季度，百度来自搜索服务与交易服务的收入，在总收入中占比将近80%，而公司来自AI及云服务的收入占比则不足20%。\n在人工智能的业绩创造力形成之前，发力流量变现效率更高的游戏业务，或许是百度更好的选择。且就技术发展对云游戏的赋能来看，提前布局游戏业务，未来也能更高效地与公司的技术实力共振。\n微妙的返场时机\n实际上，尽管百度曾高调出售百度游戏，但从未真正离开过这个市场。\n当初，百度游戏被剥离后更名为多酷游戏，仍然作为百度在游戏业务上唯一的平台级入口，与百度保持紧密的合作关系。同一年，百度APP接入智能小游戏入口；2019年，百度则投资了游戏公司蝴蝶互动；直到今年，百度申请注册“百度游戏”、“百度游戏 MG.BAIDU.COM DU”等商标，并于前不久召开品牌发布会，正式在这一赛道上“重启”。百度似乎一直在等待机会，但选择此时返场，这个时机还是有些微妙。\n从表面上看，当下，游戏市场的竞争越来越激烈。腾讯、网易两大头部势力仍无可撼动，阿里、字节跳动、B站等互联网巨头也开始在这一市场划分势力范围。\n在国内，阿里在游戏领域持续深耕之后，孵化出的《三国志·战略版》《三国志幻想大陆》表现亮眼，双双登上App Store手游收入排行榜TOP10。其中，仅在2020上半年，《三国志·战略版》的总流水便达到37亿。以此为起点，阿里逐渐在游戏领域站稳脚跟；字节跳动近来在游戏市场的步子也越来越大。今年3月，公司以260亿元的高价收购游戏公司沐瞳科技，将东南亚影响力最大的MOBA游戏《无尽对决》收入囊中；此外，B站也通过资本布局，在二次元游戏赛道上持续巩固实力。\n\n在国外，伴随着IGG、莉莉丝等游戏厂商从海外市场涌现出来，这一市场也成为更多国内头部势力的布局范围，原本的蓝海优势正在激烈的竞争中逐渐消退，新入场者抢占市场份额的难度也在加大。\n然而，在这样的发展环境下，一些新势力还是“冒出头来”。尤其是《原神》的出现，在上线30天内收入便达到2.45亿美元，一度超越《王者荣耀》《和平精英》同期收入，位列全球手游收入榜首位。背后的公司米哈游也随之变得炙手可热。\n\n这一现象的出现，刺激了头部势力的敏感神经，也加速了巨头“围猎”的脚步。以动作最大的腾讯为例，据镜像娱乐统计，2021年上半年，腾讯参与投资的游戏公司多达49家，平均每4天便投资一家公司。\n\n然而，透过这一现象，其实也反映出，一方面，当下的游戏市场还远未饱和，市场能够容下更多爆款游戏产品；另一方面，激烈的竞争环境，也为当下的游戏市场带来更多变数。在爆款终会被新的爆款替代的行业规律之下，新入局者并非没有机会，或许这才是百度选择此时返场的关键所在。\n但是，机会都是留给有准备的人，百度显然落后太多。发布会现场，百度游戏副总经理王慧也坦言：“重启后的百度团队优势仍不明显，团队一直在思考如何利用百度的资源，走出百度游戏自己的路。”但在变幻莫测的游戏市场之上，留给百度思考的时间已然不多了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806941026,"gmtCreate":1627627917065,"gmtModify":1703493663652,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"/hi","listText":"/hi","text":"/hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806941026","repostId":"2155367601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062230996,"gmtCreate":1652061496015,"gmtModify":1676535022329,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b961079c96146ab6009ce9c644ebb0b1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062230996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018979049,"gmtCreate":1648963580893,"gmtModify":1676534429563,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/484a838fa03ddf1a00bfc24a136052a8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018979049","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802719516,"gmtCreate":1627805840235,"gmtModify":1703496140409,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck","listText":"Good luck","text":"Good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802719516","repostId":"2155816318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155816318","pubTimestamp":1627784376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155816318?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 10:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"反击从规模开始：Spotify的议价权“革命”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155816318","media":"表外表里","summary":"“耳朵经济”的生意不好做","content":"<p>“正尽最大诚意进行版权采买合作的洽谈。”这是“版权新规”出台后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>云音乐第一时间采取的动作。</p>\n<p>7月24日，国家市场监管局责令<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>解除“独家版权”（保留新歌首发不超过30日的独家期限，独立音乐人可与平台签订不超过3年的独家合作）。</p>\n<p>消息发出，音乐赛道的老玩家如网易云音乐，迅速跟进收“红利”；新玩家如字节跳动，嗅到机会，蠢蠢欲动，眼看中国在线音乐市场的形态与格局要重新洗牌。</p>\n<p>废止独家版权的波澜之所以这么大，原因在于<b>国内音乐平台“苦版权溢价泡沫久矣”。</b></p>\n<p>而深受音乐版权之痛的，事实上不只国内平台，就连经常被舆论作为榜样，拿来鞭策国内音乐平台的Spotify，也被版权压的“喘不过气”。</p>\n<p>从最新财报（2021Q2）可以看出，在成本支出增长的步步紧逼下，<b>Spotify至今难以维持稳定的盈利表现。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0928a77c5d892f599b72dba81ba5a73f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>就现阶段来说，国内有政策这种“天降神兵”，时不时帮平台“松松”压力。而在国外的环境下，面对这种情况，平台往往需要自力更生。</p>\n<p>一、“三座大山”面前，Spotify沦为“打工人”</p>\n<p>虽然有着让中国同行“羡慕不已”的超高付费率：网易云、腾讯音乐的付费率分别为8.8%、10%，<b>Spotify付费率高达42%，但Spotify的日子也并不好过。</b></p>\n<p>据公司公告，Spotify收入的近2/3，需要支付给音乐权利持有者。而截至2021Q2，其成本收入比，仍保持在70%以上的高水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8adccea509b1163826245facd69e95\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这是由国外音乐产业严苛的版税制度决定的，按照流媒体平台需按照平台收入/播放量向版权方支付费用的规定，随着平台发展，平台支付的版税支出会“水涨船高”。</p>\n<p>当然，<b>内容成本支出高企，不只是音乐行业的矛盾，而是所有内容流媒体行业的通病。</b></p>\n<p>比如，海外文娱的另一代表——视频流媒体平台奈飞，也曾一度为高昂的版权支出”头疼。</p>\n<p>但自从2013年《纸牌屋》一炮而红，就此主推自制内容之后。凭借对内容成本主动权的掌握，以及用户规模提升对成本的摊薄，奈飞的成本占收入比一路下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78358d12d1c24b65b418d498c400714\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>此时的奈飞，已经从单纯的渠道方，“摇身一变”为版权方和发行方，拥有了上游产业资源的话语权。</p>\n<p>那么，<b>作为音乐行业新媒介的标杆，Spotify为何不复制这种路径呢？</b></p>\n<p>究其原因在于，就国外市场来说，三大唱片公司对音乐行业有着绝对的垄断地位。如下图，无论版权集中度，还是市场份额，大头都在三大唱片公司手中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d1550f2ba74ce30e76631b4bd7ebc9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>“饭碗”被别人掌控着，Spotify很难敢起“非分之想”。</b></p>\n<p>比如，英国《金融时报》曾报道称，由于艺人直接向Spotify授权音乐，唱片公司保留了Spotify在印度的版权。</p>\n<p>而2018Q2电话会议中，Spotify更是表态称：<b>我们并不拥有音乐的任何权益，不会扮演唱片公司的角色。</b></p>\n<p>参与上游内容输出之路走不通，Spotify难道要一直扮演“打工人”角色？答案当然是否定的。</p>\n<p>就目前的举措来看，Spotify将突破的切入口放在了下游。</p>\n<p>据Spotify财报：版税协议受诸如用户群的规模、广告支持用户与高级用户的比例以及任何适用的广告费和折扣等变量影响。我们已经为我们的低价订阅计划，如家庭计划、双人计划和学生计划用户协商了较低的每用户金额。</p>\n<p>也就是说，平台在拥有足够庞大的用户规模和影响力时，同样可以向上游版权商，争取议价权，给成本“减负”。</p>\n<p>基于此，<b>Spotify在音乐主业务上，全球化扩张的步伐在加快。</b>那么，事实是否能如其所愿呢？</p>\n<p>二、“激进”规模扩张，图“挟用户以令版权方”</p>\n<p>就规划来看，Spotify在规模扩张上所图不小。据其2021Q2电话会议：要将用户规模从4亿，扩大到10亿。</p>\n<p>策略定的如此“激进”，在于“诱惑”足够大。而这是有迹可循的。</p>\n<p>比如，2007年美国三大无线电视台之一的NBC（另两家是CBS、ABC），为了“迫使”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>iTunes平台上交定价权，用拒绝续约，收回电视剧版权（在iTunes平台上下架）方式进行威胁。</p>\n<p>但手握渠道，坐拥庞大用户基础的苹果并没有妥协。反而是失去苹果渠道的NBC，因为大量观众转向盗版渠道，损失惨重，而不得不在一年后，重新与苹果公司签约。</p>\n<p>这样能与上游内容供应商“掰手腕”的能力，谁都想要，Spotify当然也一样。</p>\n<p>近年来，Spotify大举进攻全球市场。其中2019年以来，在欧美之外的亚非地区（下图的其他地区），Spotify用户拉升最迅猛。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7370813612a92949034b9102fc1ca3ee\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不过，这可能会引发一个问题：<b>在以发展中国家为主的亚非地区，大力开拓市场，是否“划算”？</b></p>\n<p>如下图，受经济水平的影响，亚非地区（其他地区）的用户付费率远低于欧美等发达地区，且2018Q4之后，付费率水平一路走低。</p>\n<p>与此同时，为了在这些区域更有竞争（价格）优势，Spotify订阅服务的会员价格也不会定的太高，更别说频繁涨价。如此也拖累了Spotify整体的ARPPU值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f2943a1a1f71f4e84e0d7784e96bef\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>由此来看，虽然在亚非地区的用户增长迅猛，<b>但就短期来说，这些用户对Spotify的订阅收入贡献有限。</b></p>\n<p>而不依赖订阅，“入乡随俗”靠流量变现似乎也很难。数据显示，<b>Spotify的广告收入截至2021Q1，占比总收入仍维持在10%左右。</b></p>\n<p>并且据2021Q2电话会议：<b>这些广告商的主要来源，还是美国、欧洲，亚非地区的广告商比较少</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdabc7fb9ad44185e217a22cdd694a51\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>短期ROI（投资回报率）显得“不经济”的同时，在亚非地区的用户增长本身似乎也出现了瓶颈。</p>\n<p>2021年2月，Spotify同时进军85个国家（亚非的发展中国家）市场，试图将市占率进一步提升，但结果并不如预期。</p>\n<p>如下图，2021Q1～Q2，Spotify的MAU同比增速，持续下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a666dfa1d2f08ff507f1f65749c37d\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对此，Spotify管理层在最新的电话会议中，给出的解释是：受新扩张地区新冠疫情的影响。</p>\n<p>但这种解释不太经得起推敲，可以看到疫情最严重的去年，2020Q1～Q3季度Spotify的MAU增速都在25%以上。</p>\n<p>与此相比，<b>发展中国家的用户使用习惯差异和盗版问题，或许更接近原因。</b></p>\n<p>在很多互联网还没有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>普及的发展中国家，更下沉的市场，盗版音乐盛行，民众更没有用流媒体软件听音乐的习惯，这样的市场“啃起来”难度较大。</p>\n<p>综上来看，Spotify从下游入手，试图通过扩大用户规模，向版权方争取议价权。虽然对企业本身，以及颠覆音乐产业有着积极的影响。</p>\n<p>但受主力增长用户市场的经济条件和习惯的影响，想达到预期的用户目标（10亿）、可能需要较长的时间。据表外表里的测算，维持当前的增速下，跨度在5年左右。</p>\n<p>而在Spotify有能力“挟用户以令版权方”之前，Spotify不仅需要承受不断上调的版权协议，还可能要负担全球化扩张中，部分地区带来的低ROI（投资回报率）拖累。</p>\n<p>在音乐老本行里“革命”的战线太长，<b>Spotify又将目光放在了音乐之外——在海外特别是北美市场流行的播客文化，试图“曲线救国”。</b></p>\n<p>这里面的具体逻辑为：平台以播客业务丰富用户体验，吸引新的消费群体，之后通过交叉消费，提升音乐订阅服务的规模，进而提高上游议价能力。</p>\n<p>不过，鉴于播客的“火热”，盯着这个赛道的人众多，苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等巨头纷纷下场。<b>竞争高压下，Spotify能否在播客领域做好“耳朵经济”的生意？</b></p>\n<p>三、加码播客，Spotify能否真正做“老板”？</p>\n<p>“耳朵经济”市场主要有两个方向，一个是音乐，一个是长音频，播客就属于后者。</p>\n<p>从制作端来看，播客内容主要以PGC/PUGC为主。其中，PGC是采买专业机构制作的内容；PUGC类似于B站上UP主产出视频的方式，只不过播客生产的是音频内容。</p>\n<p>这意味着，<b>相较音乐，平台对播客内容，有很大的主导权，进而在拓展变现空间方面拥有更多的可能性。而这正是Spotify需要的。</b></p>\n<p>2018年，Spotify开始在博客领域的布局，甚至为了获得优质的播客资源，不断加码投入，具体包括内容采买和并购投资两种方式：</p>\n<blockquote>\n <ul>\n  <li><p><b>采买：</b>2020年初，超1亿美元签下全球知名播客节目“乔·罗根体验”（《The Joe Rogan <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a>》）多年独家版权；此外，还与金·卡戴珊·韦斯特（Kim Kardashian West）、美国前总统奥巴马的媒体公司“高地制作公司”等达成音频合作。</p></li>\n  <li><p><b>并购：</b>如下图，凭借2019年开始的一系列投资并购，逐渐形成对播客业务研宣发一体化的制作闭环。</p></li>\n </ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da62d1a53d7913e12816650d0d545b9b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>通过采买和自制的不断扩充，Spotify的播客业务规模持续壮大，跃居全球第一。</b></p>\n<p>据2021Q2财报数据, Spotify平台目前有播客内容290万，其中包括400多个原创或独家播客（2020年底数据）；同时，播客用户已经占到平台总用户的25%，拉升效果显著。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6e5ed747c830498f52e6a8b4ec63d87\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而拉新只是第一步，Spotify在播客业务上真正的“野心”，是将用户从“音乐的用户”变成“平台的用户”，以丰富内容生态，提升平台价值。</p>\n<p>据Spotify部门负责人Courtney Holt表示：“我们发现在Spotify播客上付费的用户，与Spotify黏度更高。”</p>\n<p>这样一来，用户跟着音乐版权走的情况打破，音乐业务的上游议价能力自然提升，同时播客业务上也可以拓展更多的变现“打法”，提升货币化率。</p>\n<p>以创作者端为例，Spotify推出系列货币化计划帮创作者创收，比如付费播客方案，就是由创作者自行决定订阅费用来增收。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e1d55963d4666b7ce5d476e90719e6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>前期出于吸引创作者入驻的考虑，平台方表示在两年内，都不会就此计划将向创建者收取任何费用。</p>\n<p>而比起从创作者身上赚钱，挖掘广告业务的潜力才是平台货币化，同时也是补齐音乐业务广告收入短板的重点。</p>\n<p>2020年，Spotify针对播客业务推出流媒体广告插入（“SAI”）技术，该技术支持播客主持人在口播广告时，向听众推出优惠券。</p>\n<p>用户时长（粘性）增加，再搭配新的广告形式变现，播客“一跃”成为Spotify广告收入的主要拉动力。</p>\n<p>据2021Q2电话会议：播客广告收入同比增长超过627%（或在有机基础上接近200%），而持续的超额业绩，目前只受限于我们的库存供应。</p>\n<p>不过，<b>播客业务对平台生态的拉动作用，虽然收效快，但长期持续性上，却面临不小的挑战。</b></p>\n<p>对Spotify的播客业务先发难的，就是利益受到威胁的版权方。据《金融时报》报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMG\">华纳音乐</a>试图提升Spotify的版权费用，来弥补因播客业务带来的音乐播放量下降。</p>\n<p>若Spotify没顶住压力妥协，意味着因播客带来的营收拉升，可能要被上涨的版权费消解。</p>\n<p><b>除了外部压力，Spotify自身对播客的发展方向也缺乏确定性。</b></p>\n<p>据Spotify首席财务官麦卡锡表示：“公司目前不确定采买节目和原创节目（用户生成或平台原创），哪一个在平台上更有成效。”</p>\n<p>基于此，Spotify现在对这两块都大力投资。但如果结果证明，用户对采买的内容更感兴趣，是不是意味着spotify的播客业务，可能要走音乐业务的“版权老路”？</p>\n<p>另外，上文说过，播客领域目前入局者众多，竞争激烈。在苹果、亚马逊等不输于自家的布局力度下，体量和生态不占优势的Spotify能否抵御住竞争，也是个变数。</p>\n<p>总之，以播客发展长音频的方式，Spotify通过将用户转为平台的，短期内，在规模和货币化方面补齐平台生态。但长期来看，受限于内外部压力，持续性如何需要时间检验。</p>\n<p>四、小结</p>\n<p>居高不下的版税成本，像一个“黑洞”，悬在一众音乐流媒体上空，不断将平台创造的业绩护城河“粉碎”。</p>\n<p>即便发展成全球最大的流媒体平台，<b>Spotify依然没有跳出版权“漩涡”。</b></p>\n<p>全球化音乐业务扩张，拓展长音频播客业务丰富内容生态，平台试图通过直接、间接方式，掌控对上游内容的议价权。</p>\n<p>虽然目前这“两条腿”都存在一定的不确定性，但这种积极的尝试，对破除音乐产业链“根深蒂固”的版权问题，意义重大。</p>","source":"lsy1573719481907","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>反击从规模开始：Spotify的议价权“革命”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n反击从规模开始：Spotify的议价权“革命”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-01 10:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/445003.html><strong>表外表里</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“正尽最大诚意进行版权采买合作的洽谈。”这是“版权新规”出台后，网易云音乐第一时间采取的动作。\n7月24日，国家市场监管局责令腾讯音乐解除“独家版权”（保留新歌首发不超过30日的独家期限，独立音乐人可与平台签订不超过3年的独家合作）。\n消息发出，音乐赛道的老玩家如网易云音乐，迅速跟进收“红利”；新玩家如字节跳动，嗅到机会，蠢蠢欲动，眼看中国在线音乐市场的形态与格局要重新洗牌。\n废止独家版权的波澜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/445003.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c559ba7bb9b46fce1d2a425d1a2838","relate_stocks":{"SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A."},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/445003.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155816318","content_text":"“正尽最大诚意进行版权采买合作的洽谈。”这是“版权新规”出台后，网易云音乐第一时间采取的动作。\n7月24日，国家市场监管局责令腾讯音乐解除“独家版权”（保留新歌首发不超过30日的独家期限，独立音乐人可与平台签订不超过3年的独家合作）。\n消息发出，音乐赛道的老玩家如网易云音乐，迅速跟进收“红利”；新玩家如字节跳动，嗅到机会，蠢蠢欲动，眼看中国在线音乐市场的形态与格局要重新洗牌。\n废止独家版权的波澜之所以这么大，原因在于国内音乐平台“苦版权溢价泡沫久矣”。\n而深受音乐版权之痛的，事实上不只国内平台，就连经常被舆论作为榜样，拿来鞭策国内音乐平台的Spotify，也被版权压的“喘不过气”。\n从最新财报（2021Q2）可以看出，在成本支出增长的步步紧逼下，Spotify至今难以维持稳定的盈利表现。\n\n就现阶段来说，国内有政策这种“天降神兵”，时不时帮平台“松松”压力。而在国外的环境下，面对这种情况，平台往往需要自力更生。\n一、“三座大山”面前，Spotify沦为“打工人”\n虽然有着让中国同行“羡慕不已”的超高付费率：网易云、腾讯音乐的付费率分别为8.8%、10%，Spotify付费率高达42%，但Spotify的日子也并不好过。\n据公司公告，Spotify收入的近2/3，需要支付给音乐权利持有者。而截至2021Q2，其成本收入比，仍保持在70%以上的高水平。\n\n这是由国外音乐产业严苛的版税制度决定的，按照流媒体平台需按照平台收入/播放量向版权方支付费用的规定，随着平台发展，平台支付的版税支出会“水涨船高”。\n当然，内容成本支出高企，不只是音乐行业的矛盾，而是所有内容流媒体行业的通病。\n比如，海外文娱的另一代表——视频流媒体平台奈飞，也曾一度为高昂的版权支出”头疼。\n但自从2013年《纸牌屋》一炮而红，就此主推自制内容之后。凭借对内容成本主动权的掌握，以及用户规模提升对成本的摊薄，奈飞的成本占收入比一路下降。\n\n此时的奈飞，已经从单纯的渠道方，“摇身一变”为版权方和发行方，拥有了上游产业资源的话语权。\n那么，作为音乐行业新媒介的标杆，Spotify为何不复制这种路径呢？\n究其原因在于，就国外市场来说，三大唱片公司对音乐行业有着绝对的垄断地位。如下图，无论版权集中度，还是市场份额，大头都在三大唱片公司手中。\n\n“饭碗”被别人掌控着，Spotify很难敢起“非分之想”。\n比如，英国《金融时报》曾报道称，由于艺人直接向Spotify授权音乐，唱片公司保留了Spotify在印度的版权。\n而2018Q2电话会议中，Spotify更是表态称：我们并不拥有音乐的任何权益，不会扮演唱片公司的角色。\n参与上游内容输出之路走不通，Spotify难道要一直扮演“打工人”角色？答案当然是否定的。\n就目前的举措来看，Spotify将突破的切入口放在了下游。\n据Spotify财报：版税协议受诸如用户群的规模、广告支持用户与高级用户的比例以及任何适用的广告费和折扣等变量影响。我们已经为我们的低价订阅计划，如家庭计划、双人计划和学生计划用户协商了较低的每用户金额。\n也就是说，平台在拥有足够庞大的用户规模和影响力时，同样可以向上游版权商，争取议价权，给成本“减负”。\n基于此，Spotify在音乐主业务上，全球化扩张的步伐在加快。那么，事实是否能如其所愿呢？\n二、“激进”规模扩张，图“挟用户以令版权方”\n就规划来看，Spotify在规模扩张上所图不小。据其2021Q2电话会议：要将用户规模从4亿，扩大到10亿。\n策略定的如此“激进”，在于“诱惑”足够大。而这是有迹可循的。\n比如，2007年美国三大无线电视台之一的NBC（另两家是CBS、ABC），为了“迫使”苹果iTunes平台上交定价权，用拒绝续约，收回电视剧版权（在iTunes平台上下架）方式进行威胁。\n但手握渠道，坐拥庞大用户基础的苹果并没有妥协。反而是失去苹果渠道的NBC，因为大量观众转向盗版渠道，损失惨重，而不得不在一年后，重新与苹果公司签约。\n这样能与上游内容供应商“掰手腕”的能力，谁都想要，Spotify当然也一样。\n近年来，Spotify大举进攻全球市场。其中2019年以来，在欧美之外的亚非地区（下图的其他地区），Spotify用户拉升最迅猛。\n\n不过，这可能会引发一个问题：在以发展中国家为主的亚非地区，大力开拓市场，是否“划算”？\n如下图，受经济水平的影响，亚非地区（其他地区）的用户付费率远低于欧美等发达地区，且2018Q4之后，付费率水平一路走低。\n与此同时，为了在这些区域更有竞争（价格）优势，Spotify订阅服务的会员价格也不会定的太高，更别说频繁涨价。如此也拖累了Spotify整体的ARPPU值。\n\n由此来看，虽然在亚非地区的用户增长迅猛，但就短期来说，这些用户对Spotify的订阅收入贡献有限。\n而不依赖订阅，“入乡随俗”靠流量变现似乎也很难。数据显示，Spotify的广告收入截至2021Q1，占比总收入仍维持在10%左右。\n并且据2021Q2电话会议：这些广告商的主要来源，还是美国、欧洲，亚非地区的广告商比较少。\n\n短期ROI（投资回报率）显得“不经济”的同时，在亚非地区的用户增长本身似乎也出现了瓶颈。\n2021年2月，Spotify同时进军85个国家（亚非的发展中国家）市场，试图将市占率进一步提升，但结果并不如预期。\n如下图，2021Q1～Q2，Spotify的MAU同比增速，持续下降。\n\n对此，Spotify管理层在最新的电话会议中，给出的解释是：受新扩张地区新冠疫情的影响。\n但这种解释不太经得起推敲，可以看到疫情最严重的去年，2020Q1～Q3季度Spotify的MAU增速都在25%以上。\n与此相比，发展中国家的用户使用习惯差异和盗版问题，或许更接近原因。\n在很多互联网还没有全民普及的发展中国家，更下沉的市场，盗版音乐盛行，民众更没有用流媒体软件听音乐的习惯，这样的市场“啃起来”难度较大。\n综上来看，Spotify从下游入手，试图通过扩大用户规模，向版权方争取议价权。虽然对企业本身，以及颠覆音乐产业有着积极的影响。\n但受主力增长用户市场的经济条件和习惯的影响，想达到预期的用户目标（10亿）、可能需要较长的时间。据表外表里的测算，维持当前的增速下，跨度在5年左右。\n而在Spotify有能力“挟用户以令版权方”之前，Spotify不仅需要承受不断上调的版权协议，还可能要负担全球化扩张中，部分地区带来的低ROI（投资回报率）拖累。\n在音乐老本行里“革命”的战线太长，Spotify又将目光放在了音乐之外——在海外特别是北美市场流行的播客文化，试图“曲线救国”。\n这里面的具体逻辑为：平台以播客业务丰富用户体验，吸引新的消费群体，之后通过交叉消费，提升音乐订阅服务的规模，进而提高上游议价能力。\n不过，鉴于播客的“火热”，盯着这个赛道的人众多，苹果、亚马逊等巨头纷纷下场。竞争高压下，Spotify能否在播客领域做好“耳朵经济”的生意？\n三、加码播客，Spotify能否真正做“老板”？\n“耳朵经济”市场主要有两个方向，一个是音乐，一个是长音频，播客就属于后者。\n从制作端来看，播客内容主要以PGC/PUGC为主。其中，PGC是采买专业机构制作的内容；PUGC类似于B站上UP主产出视频的方式，只不过播客生产的是音频内容。\n这意味着，相较音乐，平台对播客内容，有很大的主导权，进而在拓展变现空间方面拥有更多的可能性。而这正是Spotify需要的。\n2018年，Spotify开始在博客领域的布局，甚至为了获得优质的播客资源，不断加码投入，具体包括内容采买和并购投资两种方式：\n\n\n采买：2020年初，超1亿美元签下全球知名播客节目“乔·罗根体验”（《The Joe Rogan Experience》）多年独家版权；此外，还与金·卡戴珊·韦斯特（Kim Kardashian West）、美国前总统奥巴马的媒体公司“高地制作公司”等达成音频合作。\n并购：如下图，凭借2019年开始的一系列投资并购，逐渐形成对播客业务研宣发一体化的制作闭环。\n\n\n\n通过采买和自制的不断扩充，Spotify的播客业务规模持续壮大，跃居全球第一。\n据2021Q2财报数据, Spotify平台目前有播客内容290万，其中包括400多个原创或独家播客（2020年底数据）；同时，播客用户已经占到平台总用户的25%，拉升效果显著。\n\n而拉新只是第一步，Spotify在播客业务上真正的“野心”，是将用户从“音乐的用户”变成“平台的用户”，以丰富内容生态，提升平台价值。\n据Spotify部门负责人Courtney Holt表示：“我们发现在Spotify播客上付费的用户，与Spotify黏度更高。”\n这样一来，用户跟着音乐版权走的情况打破，音乐业务的上游议价能力自然提升，同时播客业务上也可以拓展更多的变现“打法”，提升货币化率。\n以创作者端为例，Spotify推出系列货币化计划帮创作者创收，比如付费播客方案，就是由创作者自行决定订阅费用来增收。\n\n前期出于吸引创作者入驻的考虑，平台方表示在两年内，都不会就此计划将向创建者收取任何费用。\n而比起从创作者身上赚钱，挖掘广告业务的潜力才是平台货币化，同时也是补齐音乐业务广告收入短板的重点。\n2020年，Spotify针对播客业务推出流媒体广告插入（“SAI”）技术，该技术支持播客主持人在口播广告时，向听众推出优惠券。\n用户时长（粘性）增加，再搭配新的广告形式变现，播客“一跃”成为Spotify广告收入的主要拉动力。\n据2021Q2电话会议：播客广告收入同比增长超过627%（或在有机基础上接近200%），而持续的超额业绩，目前只受限于我们的库存供应。\n不过，播客业务对平台生态的拉动作用，虽然收效快，但长期持续性上，却面临不小的挑战。\n对Spotify的播客业务先发难的，就是利益受到威胁的版权方。据《金融时报》报道，华纳音乐试图提升Spotify的版权费用，来弥补因播客业务带来的音乐播放量下降。\n若Spotify没顶住压力妥协，意味着因播客带来的营收拉升，可能要被上涨的版权费消解。\n除了外部压力，Spotify自身对播客的发展方向也缺乏确定性。\n据Spotify首席财务官麦卡锡表示：“公司目前不确定采买节目和原创节目（用户生成或平台原创），哪一个在平台上更有成效。”\n基于此，Spotify现在对这两块都大力投资。但如果结果证明，用户对采买的内容更感兴趣，是不是意味着spotify的播客业务，可能要走音乐业务的“版权老路”？\n另外，上文说过，播客领域目前入局者众多，竞争激烈。在苹果、亚马逊等不输于自家的布局力度下，体量和生态不占优势的Spotify能否抵御住竞争，也是个变数。\n总之，以播客发展长音频的方式，Spotify通过将用户转为平台的，短期内，在规模和货币化方面补齐平台生态。但长期来看，受限于内外部压力，持续性如何需要时间检验。\n四、小结\n居高不下的版税成本，像一个“黑洞”，悬在一众音乐流媒体上空，不断将平台创造的业绩护城河“粉碎”。\n即便发展成全球最大的流媒体平台，Spotify依然没有跳出版权“漩涡”。\n全球化音乐业务扩张，拓展长音频播客业务丰富内容生态，平台试图通过直接、间接方式，掌控对上游内容的议价权。\n虽然目前这“两条腿”都存在一定的不确定性，但这种积极的尝试，对破除音乐产业链“根深蒂固”的版权问题，意义重大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802355150,"gmtCreate":1627722875970,"gmtModify":1703495230223,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi ☺️","listText":"Hi ☺️","text":"Hi ☺️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802355150","repostId":"1154964430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154964430","pubTimestamp":1627698043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154964430?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 10:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"价值重塑：中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154964430","media":" 付鹏的财经世界","summary":"和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同","content":"<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：</p>\n<p>DIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；</p>\n<p>对于教育类中概股的冲击，谈不上是完全没有预期，如果说完全没有预期，要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的，要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位，中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的，最近风口浪尖上的新政策，都不是突发性的，基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的；</p>\n<p>对于市场中参与的资金来讲，他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险，但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说，这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小，事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来，资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的，也就是说，肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓；</p>\n<p>这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看，也是吻合的，基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓；</p>\n<p>现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭，资本开始不信任等这些因素，现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的；</p>\n<p>之前呢，资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断，房地产，教育，医疗，甚至是可能的医美，娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压，从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收，增长性等，但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层，基于这个逻辑，那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台，对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估，但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话，那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗？真的只是做一个简单的修正么？”</p>\n<p>此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心，就是这个问题，随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后，越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些，深思的是中国是不是玩真的了？如果是玩真的，那核心的问题是，这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是：整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了？</p>\n<p>如果这个答案是yes的话，那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于，这不是一个简单减仓，他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变（从一级市场到二级市场），商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了，那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的，如果只是一个政策的冲击，你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断，但这个还都在正常的逻辑下，但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了，那你可能甚至是说，整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类，甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话，那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题；</p>\n<p>所以，这几天的剧烈下跌，无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应，这和前面的下跌，本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量，虽然都是风控减仓，但内核是完全不同的；</p>\n<p>对中国目前来讲，穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value remodeling，那这样的话，很多的支撑之前估值、市值的商业模式是要发生根本变化的，所以对于资金来说，现在是完全要对这些已经甚至是可能未来受到中国政策影响的公司要进行重新的估值体系的定价；</p>","source":"fpdcjsj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>价值重塑：中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n价值重塑：中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 10:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ><strong> 付鹏的财经世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；\n对于教育类中概股...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154964430","content_text":"和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；\n对于教育类中概股的冲击，谈不上是完全没有预期，如果说完全没有预期，要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的，要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位，中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的，最近风口浪尖上的新政策，都不是突发性的，基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的；\n对于市场中参与的资金来讲，他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险，但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说，这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小，事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来，资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的，也就是说，肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓；\n这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看，也是吻合的，基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓；\n现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭，资本开始不信任等这些因素，现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的；\n之前呢，资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断，房地产，教育，医疗，甚至是可能的医美，娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压，从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收，增长性等，但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层，基于这个逻辑，那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台，对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估，但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话，那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗？真的只是做一个简单的修正么？”\n此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心，就是这个问题，随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后，越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些，深思的是中国是不是玩真的了？如果是玩真的，那核心的问题是，这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是：整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了？\n如果这个答案是yes的话，那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于，这不是一个简单减仓，他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变（从一级市场到二级市场），商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了，那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的，如果只是一个政策的冲击，你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断，但这个还都在正常的逻辑下，但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了，那你可能甚至是说，整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类，甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话，那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题；\n所以，这几天的剧烈下跌，无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应，这和前面的下跌，本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量，虽然都是风控减仓，但内核是完全不同的；\n对中国目前来讲，穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value remodeling，那这样的话，很多的支撑之前估值、市值的商业模式是要发生根本变化的，所以对于资金来说，现在是完全要对这些已经甚至是可能未来受到中国政策影响的公司要进行重新的估值体系的定价；","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067127785,"gmtCreate":1652428113647,"gmtModify":1676535099081,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good 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luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005224163","repostId":"1119435888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119435888","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641877579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119435888?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-11 13:06","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"提醒：1月17日马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119435888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。【背景简介】马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，192","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。</p><p>港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。</p><p><b>【背景简介】</b></p><p>马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，1929年1月15日—1968年4月4日），非裔美国人，美国牧师、社会活动家、黑人民权运动领袖。每年1月的第三个星期一，是美国联邦法定假日——马丁·路德·金纪念日。这是美国三个纪念个人的法定假日之一，另外两个是“哥伦布日”，和纪念前总统亚伯拉罕·林肯和乔治·华盛顿的“总统节”。</p><p>美国学校、政府和联邦机构在这一天都不开放。星期一会有追思仪式及纪念仪式。而在此之前的星期日，所有地区的牧师都会进行特殊布道，提醒每个人缅怀马丁·路德·金追求和平的一生。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：1月17日马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：1月17日马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-11 13:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。</p><p>港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。</p><p><b>【背景简介】</b></p><p>马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，1929年1月15日—1968年4月4日），非裔美国人，美国牧师、社会活动家、黑人民权运动领袖。每年1月的第三个星期一，是美国联邦法定假日——马丁·路德·金纪念日。这是美国三个纪念个人的法定假日之一，另外两个是“哥伦布日”，和纪念前总统亚伯拉罕·林肯和乔治·华盛顿的“总统节”。</p><p>美国学校、政府和联邦机构在这一天都不开放。星期一会有追思仪式及纪念仪式。而在此之前的星期日，所有地区的牧师都会进行特殊布道，提醒每个人缅怀马丁·路德·金追求和平的一生。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119435888","content_text":"2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。【背景简介】马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，1929年1月15日—1968年4月4日），非裔美国人，美国牧师、社会活动家、黑人民权运动领袖。每年1月的第三个星期一，是美国联邦法定假日——马丁·路德·金纪念日。这是美国三个纪念个人的法定假日之一，另外两个是“哥伦布日”，和纪念前总统亚伯拉罕·林肯和乔治·华盛顿的“总统节”。美国学校、政府和联邦机构在这一天都不开放。星期一会有追思仪式及纪念仪式。而在此之前的星期日，所有地区的牧师都会进行特殊布道，提醒每个人缅怀马丁·路德·金追求和平的一生。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}