mingming88 personal page - To The Moon

mingming88

mingming88

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08-30

👍🏻👍🏻

02-26

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

02-19

✨

01-13

🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯

01-12

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01-11

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01-10

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01-09

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01-08

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01-07

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01-06

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01-05

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01-04

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01-03

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01-02

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01-01

🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🥳🥳💪🥳🥳💯💯💯💯💯👍👍👍👍👍

2023-12-31

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2023-12-30

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2023-12-29

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2023-12-26

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luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802349116","repostId":"2155688721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806941026,"gmtCreate":1627627917065,"gmtModify":1703493663652,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"/hi","listText":"/hi","text":"/hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806941026","repostId":"2155367601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155367601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627627123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155367601?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电2nm生产计划获批，预计2024年量产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155367601","media":"智东西","summary":"芯东西7月30日消息，据日经亚洲（Nikkei Asia）报道，中国台湾已批准台积电生产2nm芯片工艺的计划，具体时间约在2023年启动。2nm芯片工艺预计将用于2024年苹果推出iPhone系列上。","content":"<p>芯东西7月30日消息，据日经亚洲（Nikkei Asia）报道，中国台湾已批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>生产2nm芯片工艺的计划，具体时间约在2023年启动。2nm芯片工艺预计将用于2024年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>推出iPhone系列上。</p>\n<p>在台积电发布消息前一天，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>公司还称，期待在四年内，赶上并超越台积电的芯片。台积电2nm计划的宣布，对英特尔公司来说增加了挑战难度。据悉，英特尔在芯片制造上已经落后于台积电和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>。</p>\n<p>同时，台积电和三星还帮助英特尔的竞争对手，即<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>公司（NVIDIA）进行芯片代工生产。英特尔公司宣称，预计到2025年将重新获得领先地位。</p>\n<p>对芯片生产厂商来说，制造出更强大芯片秘诀是缩小芯片工艺。但缩小芯片工艺则意味着，将更多的晶体管放在同样尺寸的芯片中，这对于生产来说，是极大的挑战。</p>\n<p>据悉，iPhone 12使用的A14芯片，由苹果公司设计，台积电制造生产。A14芯片中包含了118亿个晶体管。据外媒9to5Mac报道，iPhone 13预计将使用更高效的5nm芯片工艺， iPhone 14预计进入4nm芯片工艺。同时，3nm工艺芯片预计在2023年产出，并继续在iPhone智能手机中投入使用。</p>\n<p>据台积电相关工作人员透露，台积电计划在台湾新竹宝山开启生产。据了解，宝山镇是台湾最重要的芯片制造中心之一，2nm生产工厂将于2022年初开工建设，并于2023年开始安装生产设备。预计本次生产计划中占地近50英亩，且每天将使用98,000吨水。用水量约占台积电2020年每日总用水量的 50%。</p>\n<p>为了降低耗水量，台积电承诺在宝山生产期间中，到2025年将使用10%的再生水，2030年将使用100%的再生水。另外，台积电另一所位于美国亚利桑那州的工厂，也将于2024年开始生产，据悉将用于制造苹果A系列和M系列芯片。</p>\n<p>结语：芯片之争刻不容缓，科技巨头各显神通</p>\n<p>芯片作为智能设备的心脏，无时无刻不存在现代人们的生活中。各个厂商纷纷将芯片做为主导业务。芯片巨头们更是不甘落后，比如英特尔公司在未来四年内赶超计划也值得期待。</p>\n<p>台积电目前也面临芯片之争，中国台湾国防与安全研究所所长苏子云去年接受《日经亚洲评论》采访中也谈道，台积电正面临一项战略决策，即是以后要把重点放在美国市场还是中国市场上。在美国建立先进的芯片工厂可能是一种解决办法。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电2nm生产计划获批，预计2024年量产</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电2nm生产计划获批，预计2024年量产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 14:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107301431007c274969&s=b><strong>智东西</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>芯东西7月30日消息，据日经亚洲（Nikkei Asia）报道，中国台湾已批准台积电生产2nm芯片工艺的计划，具体时间约在2023年启动。2nm芯片工艺预计将用于2024年苹果推出iPhone系列上。\n在台积电发布消息前一天，英特尔公司还称，期待在四年内，赶上并超越台积电的芯片。台积电2nm计划的宣布，对英特尔公司来说增加了挑战难度。据悉，英特尔在芯片制造上已经落后于台积电和三星。\n同时，台积电和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107301431007c274969&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107301431007c274969&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2155367601","content_text":"芯东西7月30日消息，据日经亚洲（Nikkei Asia）报道，中国台湾已批准台积电生产2nm芯片工艺的计划，具体时间约在2023年启动。2nm芯片工艺预计将用于2024年苹果推出iPhone系列上。\n在台积电发布消息前一天，英特尔公司还称，期待在四年内，赶上并超越台积电的芯片。台积电2nm计划的宣布，对英特尔公司来说增加了挑战难度。据悉，英特尔在芯片制造上已经落后于台积电和三星。\n同时，台积电和三星还帮助英特尔的竞争对手，即AMD和英伟达公司（NVIDIA）进行芯片代工生产。英特尔公司宣称，预计到2025年将重新获得领先地位。\n对芯片生产厂商来说，制造出更强大芯片秘诀是缩小芯片工艺。但缩小芯片工艺则意味着，将更多的晶体管放在同样尺寸的芯片中，这对于生产来说，是极大的挑战。\n据悉，iPhone 12使用的A14芯片，由苹果公司设计，台积电制造生产。A14芯片中包含了118亿个晶体管。据外媒9to5Mac报道，iPhone 13预计将使用更高效的5nm芯片工艺， iPhone 14预计进入4nm芯片工艺。同时，3nm工艺芯片预计在2023年产出，并继续在iPhone智能手机中投入使用。\n据台积电相关工作人员透露，台积电计划在台湾新竹宝山开启生产。据了解，宝山镇是台湾最重要的芯片制造中心之一，2nm生产工厂将于2022年初开工建设，并于2023年开始安装生产设备。预计本次生产计划中占地近50英亩，且每天将使用98,000吨水。用水量约占台积电2020年每日总用水量的 50%。\n为了降低耗水量，台积电承诺在宝山生产期间中，到2025年将使用10%的再生水，2030年将使用100%的再生水。另外，台积电另一所位于美国亚利桑那州的工厂，也将于2024年开始生产，据悉将用于制造苹果A系列和M系列芯片。\n结语：芯片之争刻不容缓，科技巨头各显神通\n芯片作为智能设备的心脏，无时无刻不存在现代人们的生活中。各个厂商纷纷将芯片做为主导业务。芯片巨头们更是不甘落后，比如英特尔公司在未来四年内赶超计划也值得期待。\n台积电目前也面临芯片之争，中国台湾国防与安全研究所所长苏子云去年接受《日经亚洲评论》采访中也谈道，台积电正面临一项战略决策，即是以后要把重点放在美国市场还是中国市场上。在美国建立先进的芯片工厂可能是一种解决办法。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062230996,"gmtCreate":1652061496015,"gmtModify":1676535022329,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b961079c96146ab6009ce9c644ebb0b1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062230996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018979049,"gmtCreate":1648963580893,"gmtModify":1676534429563,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/484a838fa03ddf1a00bfc24a136052a8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018979049","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802719516,"gmtCreate":1627805840235,"gmtModify":1703496140409,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck","listText":"Good luck","text":"Good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802719516","repostId":"2155816318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155816318","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627784376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155816318?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 10:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"反击从规模开始：Spotify的议价权“革命”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155816318","media":"表外表里","summary":"“耳朵经济”的生意不好做","content":"<p>“正尽最大诚意进行版权采买合作的洽谈。”这是“版权新规”出台后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>云音乐第一时间采取的动作。</p>\n<p>7月24日，国家市场监管局责令<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>解除“独家版权”（保留新歌首发不超过30日的独家期限，独立音乐人可与平台签订不超过3年的独家合作）。</p>\n<p>消息发出，音乐赛道的老玩家如网易云音乐，迅速跟进收“红利”；新玩家如字节跳动，嗅到机会，蠢蠢欲动，眼看中国在线音乐市场的形态与格局要重新洗牌。</p>\n<p>废止独家版权的波澜之所以这么大，原因在于<b>国内音乐平台“苦版权溢价泡沫久矣”。</b></p>\n<p>而深受音乐版权之痛的，事实上不只国内平台，就连经常被舆论作为榜样，拿来鞭策国内音乐平台的Spotify，也被版权压的“喘不过气”。</p>\n<p>从最新财报（2021Q2）可以看出，在成本支出增长的步步紧逼下，<b>Spotify至今难以维持稳定的盈利表现。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0928a77c5d892f599b72dba81ba5a73f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>就现阶段来说，国内有政策这种“天降神兵”，时不时帮平台“松松”压力。而在国外的环境下，面对这种情况，平台往往需要自力更生。</p>\n<p>一、“三座大山”面前，Spotify沦为“打工人”</p>\n<p>虽然有着让中国同行“羡慕不已”的超高付费率：网易云、腾讯音乐的付费率分别为8.8%、10%，<b>Spotify付费率高达42%，但Spotify的日子也并不好过。</b></p>\n<p>据公司公告，Spotify收入的近2/3，需要支付给音乐权利持有者。而截至2021Q2，其成本收入比，仍保持在70%以上的高水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8adccea509b1163826245facd69e95\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这是由国外音乐产业严苛的版税制度决定的，按照流媒体平台需按照平台收入/播放量向版权方支付费用的规定，随着平台发展，平台支付的版税支出会“水涨船高”。</p>\n<p>当然，<b>内容成本支出高企，不只是音乐行业的矛盾，而是所有内容流媒体行业的通病。</b></p>\n<p>比如，海外文娱的另一代表——视频流媒体平台奈飞，也曾一度为高昂的版权支出”头疼。</p>\n<p>但自从2013年《纸牌屋》一炮而红，就此主推自制内容之后。凭借对内容成本主动权的掌握，以及用户规模提升对成本的摊薄，奈飞的成本占收入比一路下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78358d12d1c24b65b418d498c400714\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>此时的奈飞，已经从单纯的渠道方，“摇身一变”为版权方和发行方，拥有了上游产业资源的话语权。</p>\n<p>那么，<b>作为音乐行业新媒介的标杆，Spotify为何不复制这种路径呢？</b></p>\n<p>究其原因在于，就国外市场来说，三大唱片公司对音乐行业有着绝对的垄断地位。如下图，无论版权集中度，还是市场份额，大头都在三大唱片公司手中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d1550f2ba74ce30e76631b4bd7ebc9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>“饭碗”被别人掌控着，Spotify很难敢起“非分之想”。</b></p>\n<p>比如，英国《金融时报》曾报道称，由于艺人直接向Spotify授权音乐，唱片公司保留了Spotify在印度的版权。</p>\n<p>而2018Q2电话会议中，Spotify更是表态称：<b>我们并不拥有音乐的任何权益，不会扮演唱片公司的角色。</b></p>\n<p>参与上游内容输出之路走不通，Spotify难道要一直扮演“打工人”角色？答案当然是否定的。</p>\n<p>就目前的举措来看，Spotify将突破的切入口放在了下游。</p>\n<p>据Spotify财报：版税协议受诸如用户群的规模、广告支持用户与高级用户的比例以及任何适用的广告费和折扣等变量影响。我们已经为我们的低价订阅计划，如家庭计划、双人计划和学生计划用户协商了较低的每用户金额。</p>\n<p>也就是说，平台在拥有足够庞大的用户规模和影响力时，同样可以向上游版权商，争取议价权，给成本“减负”。</p>\n<p>基于此，<b>Spotify在音乐主业务上，全球化扩张的步伐在加快。</b>那么，事实是否能如其所愿呢？</p>\n<p>二、“激进”规模扩张，图“挟用户以令版权方”</p>\n<p>就规划来看，Spotify在规模扩张上所图不小。据其2021Q2电话会议：要将用户规模从4亿，扩大到10亿。</p>\n<p>策略定的如此“激进”，在于“诱惑”足够大。而这是有迹可循的。</p>\n<p>比如，2007年美国三大无线电视台之一的NBC（另两家是CBS、ABC），为了“迫使”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>iTunes平台上交定价权，用拒绝续约，收回电视剧版权（在iTunes平台上下架）方式进行威胁。</p>\n<p>但手握渠道，坐拥庞大用户基础的苹果并没有妥协。反而是失去苹果渠道的NBC，因为大量观众转向盗版渠道，损失惨重，而不得不在一年后，重新与苹果公司签约。</p>\n<p>这样能与上游内容供应商“掰手腕”的能力，谁都想要，Spotify当然也一样。</p>\n<p>近年来，Spotify大举进攻全球市场。其中2019年以来，在欧美之外的亚非地区（下图的其他地区），Spotify用户拉升最迅猛。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7370813612a92949034b9102fc1ca3ee\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不过，这可能会引发一个问题：<b>在以发展中国家为主的亚非地区，大力开拓市场，是否“划算”？</b></p>\n<p>如下图，受经济水平的影响，亚非地区（其他地区）的用户付费率远低于欧美等发达地区，且2018Q4之后，付费率水平一路走低。</p>\n<p>与此同时，为了在这些区域更有竞争（价格）优势，Spotify订阅服务的会员价格也不会定的太高，更别说频繁涨价。如此也拖累了Spotify整体的ARPPU值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f2943a1a1f71f4e84e0d7784e96bef\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>由此来看，虽然在亚非地区的用户增长迅猛，<b>但就短期来说，这些用户对Spotify的订阅收入贡献有限。</b></p>\n<p>而不依赖订阅，“入乡随俗”靠流量变现似乎也很难。数据显示，<b>Spotify的广告收入截至2021Q1，占比总收入仍维持在10%左右。</b></p>\n<p>并且据2021Q2电话会议：<b>这些广告商的主要来源，还是美国、欧洲，亚非地区的广告商比较少</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdabc7fb9ad44185e217a22cdd694a51\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>短期ROI（投资回报率）显得“不经济”的同时，在亚非地区的用户增长本身似乎也出现了瓶颈。</p>\n<p>2021年2月，Spotify同时进军85个国家（亚非的发展中国家）市场，试图将市占率进一步提升，但结果并不如预期。</p>\n<p>如下图，2021Q1～Q2，Spotify的MAU同比增速，持续下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a666dfa1d2f08ff507f1f65749c37d\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对此，Spotify管理层在最新的电话会议中，给出的解释是：受新扩张地区新冠疫情的影响。</p>\n<p>但这种解释不太经得起推敲，可以看到疫情最严重的去年，2020Q1～Q3季度Spotify的MAU增速都在25%以上。</p>\n<p>与此相比，<b>发展中国家的用户使用习惯差异和盗版问题，或许更接近原因。</b></p>\n<p>在很多互联网还没有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>普及的发展中国家，更下沉的市场，盗版音乐盛行，民众更没有用流媒体软件听音乐的习惯，这样的市场“啃起来”难度较大。</p>\n<p>综上来看，Spotify从下游入手，试图通过扩大用户规模，向版权方争取议价权。虽然对企业本身，以及颠覆音乐产业有着积极的影响。</p>\n<p>但受主力增长用户市场的经济条件和习惯的影响，想达到预期的用户目标（10亿）、可能需要较长的时间。据表外表里的测算，维持当前的增速下，跨度在5年左右。</p>\n<p>而在Spotify有能力“挟用户以令版权方”之前，Spotify不仅需要承受不断上调的版权协议，还可能要负担全球化扩张中，部分地区带来的低ROI（投资回报率）拖累。</p>\n<p>在音乐老本行里“革命”的战线太长，<b>Spotify又将目光放在了音乐之外——在海外特别是北美市场流行的播客文化，试图“曲线救国”。</b></p>\n<p>这里面的具体逻辑为：平台以播客业务丰富用户体验，吸引新的消费群体，之后通过交叉消费，提升音乐订阅服务的规模，进而提高上游议价能力。</p>\n<p>不过，鉴于播客的“火热”，盯着这个赛道的人众多，苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等巨头纷纷下场。<b>竞争高压下，Spotify能否在播客领域做好“耳朵经济”的生意？</b></p>\n<p>三、加码播客，Spotify能否真正做“老板”？</p>\n<p>“耳朵经济”市场主要有两个方向，一个是音乐，一个是长音频，播客就属于后者。</p>\n<p>从制作端来看，播客内容主要以PGC/PUGC为主。其中，PGC是采买专业机构制作的内容；PUGC类似于B站上UP主产出视频的方式，只不过播客生产的是音频内容。</p>\n<p>这意味着，<b>相较音乐，平台对播客内容，有很大的主导权，进而在拓展变现空间方面拥有更多的可能性。而这正是Spotify需要的。</b></p>\n<p>2018年，Spotify开始在博客领域的布局，甚至为了获得优质的播客资源，不断加码投入，具体包括内容采买和并购投资两种方式：</p>\n<blockquote>\n <ul>\n  <li><p><b>采买：</b>2020年初，超1亿美元签下全球知名播客节目“乔·罗根体验”（《The Joe Rogan <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a>》）多年独家版权；此外，还与金·卡戴珊·韦斯特（Kim Kardashian West）、美国前总统奥巴马的媒体公司“高地制作公司”等达成音频合作。</p></li>\n  <li><p><b>并购：</b>如下图，凭借2019年开始的一系列投资并购，逐渐形成对播客业务研宣发一体化的制作闭环。</p></li>\n </ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da62d1a53d7913e12816650d0d545b9b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>通过采买和自制的不断扩充，Spotify的播客业务规模持续壮大，跃居全球第一。</b></p>\n<p>据2021Q2财报数据, Spotify平台目前有播客内容290万，其中包括400多个原创或独家播客（2020年底数据）；同时，播客用户已经占到平台总用户的25%，拉升效果显著。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6e5ed747c830498f52e6a8b4ec63d87\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而拉新只是第一步，Spotify在播客业务上真正的“野心”，是将用户从“音乐的用户”变成“平台的用户”，以丰富内容生态，提升平台价值。</p>\n<p>据Spotify部门负责人Courtney Holt表示：“我们发现在Spotify播客上付费的用户，与Spotify黏度更高。”</p>\n<p>这样一来，用户跟着音乐版权走的情况打破，音乐业务的上游议价能力自然提升，同时播客业务上也可以拓展更多的变现“打法”，提升货币化率。</p>\n<p>以创作者端为例，Spotify推出系列货币化计划帮创作者创收，比如付费播客方案，就是由创作者自行决定订阅费用来增收。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e1d55963d4666b7ce5d476e90719e6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>前期出于吸引创作者入驻的考虑，平台方表示在两年内，都不会就此计划将向创建者收取任何费用。</p>\n<p>而比起从创作者身上赚钱，挖掘广告业务的潜力才是平台货币化，同时也是补齐音乐业务广告收入短板的重点。</p>\n<p>2020年，Spotify针对播客业务推出流媒体广告插入（“SAI”）技术，该技术支持播客主持人在口播广告时，向听众推出优惠券。</p>\n<p>用户时长（粘性）增加，再搭配新的广告形式变现，播客“一跃”成为Spotify广告收入的主要拉动力。</p>\n<p>据2021Q2电话会议：播客广告收入同比增长超过627%（或在有机基础上接近200%），而持续的超额业绩，目前只受限于我们的库存供应。</p>\n<p>不过，<b>播客业务对平台生态的拉动作用，虽然收效快，但长期持续性上，却面临不小的挑战。</b></p>\n<p>对Spotify的播客业务先发难的，就是利益受到威胁的版权方。据《金融时报》报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMG\">华纳音乐</a>试图提升Spotify的版权费用，来弥补因播客业务带来的音乐播放量下降。</p>\n<p>若Spotify没顶住压力妥协，意味着因播客带来的营收拉升，可能要被上涨的版权费消解。</p>\n<p><b>除了外部压力，Spotify自身对播客的发展方向也缺乏确定性。</b></p>\n<p>据Spotify首席财务官麦卡锡表示：“公司目前不确定采买节目和原创节目（用户生成或平台原创），哪一个在平台上更有成效。”</p>\n<p>基于此，Spotify现在对这两块都大力投资。但如果结果证明，用户对采买的内容更感兴趣，是不是意味着spotify的播客业务，可能要走音乐业务的“版权老路”？</p>\n<p>另外，上文说过，播客领域目前入局者众多，竞争激烈。在苹果、亚马逊等不输于自家的布局力度下，体量和生态不占优势的Spotify能否抵御住竞争，也是个变数。</p>\n<p>总之，以播客发展长音频的方式，Spotify通过将用户转为平台的，短期内，在规模和货币化方面补齐平台生态。但长期来看，受限于内外部压力，持续性如何需要时间检验。</p>\n<p>四、小结</p>\n<p>居高不下的版税成本，像一个“黑洞”，悬在一众音乐流媒体上空，不断将平台创造的业绩护城河“粉碎”。</p>\n<p>即便发展成全球最大的流媒体平台，<b>Spotify依然没有跳出版权“漩涡”。</b></p>\n<p>全球化音乐业务扩张，拓展长音频播客业务丰富内容生态，平台试图通过直接、间接方式，掌控对上游内容的议价权。</p>\n<p>虽然目前这“两条腿”都存在一定的不确定性，但这种积极的尝试，对破除音乐产业链“根深蒂固”的版权问题，意义重大。</p>","source":"lsy1573719481907","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n反击从规模开始：Spotify的议价权“革命”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-01 10:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/445003.html><strong>表外表里</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“正尽最大诚意进行版权采买合作的洽谈。”这是“版权新规”出台后，网易云音乐第一时间采取的动作。\n7月24日，国家市场监管局责令腾讯音乐解除“独家版权”（保留新歌首发不超过30日的独家期限，独立音乐人可与平台签订不超过3年的独家合作）。\n消息发出，音乐赛道的老玩家如网易云音乐，迅速跟进收“红利”；新玩家如字节跳动，嗅到机会，蠢蠢欲动，眼看中国在线音乐市场的形态与格局要重新洗牌。\n废止独家版权的波澜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/445003.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c559ba7bb9b46fce1d2a425d1a2838","relate_stocks":{"SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A."},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/445003.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155816318","content_text":"“正尽最大诚意进行版权采买合作的洽谈。”这是“版权新规”出台后，网易云音乐第一时间采取的动作。\n7月24日，国家市场监管局责令腾讯音乐解除“独家版权”（保留新歌首发不超过30日的独家期限，独立音乐人可与平台签订不超过3年的独家合作）。\n消息发出，音乐赛道的老玩家如网易云音乐，迅速跟进收“红利”；新玩家如字节跳动，嗅到机会，蠢蠢欲动，眼看中国在线音乐市场的形态与格局要重新洗牌。\n废止独家版权的波澜之所以这么大，原因在于国内音乐平台“苦版权溢价泡沫久矣”。\n而深受音乐版权之痛的，事实上不只国内平台，就连经常被舆论作为榜样，拿来鞭策国内音乐平台的Spotify，也被版权压的“喘不过气”。\n从最新财报（2021Q2）可以看出，在成本支出增长的步步紧逼下，Spotify至今难以维持稳定的盈利表现。\n\n就现阶段来说，国内有政策这种“天降神兵”，时不时帮平台“松松”压力。而在国外的环境下，面对这种情况，平台往往需要自力更生。\n一、“三座大山”面前，Spotify沦为“打工人”\n虽然有着让中国同行“羡慕不已”的超高付费率：网易云、腾讯音乐的付费率分别为8.8%、10%，Spotify付费率高达42%，但Spotify的日子也并不好过。\n据公司公告，Spotify收入的近2/3，需要支付给音乐权利持有者。而截至2021Q2，其成本收入比，仍保持在70%以上的高水平。\n\n这是由国外音乐产业严苛的版税制度决定的，按照流媒体平台需按照平台收入/播放量向版权方支付费用的规定，随着平台发展，平台支付的版税支出会“水涨船高”。\n当然，内容成本支出高企，不只是音乐行业的矛盾，而是所有内容流媒体行业的通病。\n比如，海外文娱的另一代表——视频流媒体平台奈飞，也曾一度为高昂的版权支出”头疼。\n但自从2013年《纸牌屋》一炮而红，就此主推自制内容之后。凭借对内容成本主动权的掌握，以及用户规模提升对成本的摊薄，奈飞的成本占收入比一路下降。\n\n此时的奈飞，已经从单纯的渠道方，“摇身一变”为版权方和发行方，拥有了上游产业资源的话语权。\n那么，作为音乐行业新媒介的标杆，Spotify为何不复制这种路径呢？\n究其原因在于，就国外市场来说，三大唱片公司对音乐行业有着绝对的垄断地位。如下图，无论版权集中度，还是市场份额，大头都在三大唱片公司手中。\n\n“饭碗”被别人掌控着，Spotify很难敢起“非分之想”。\n比如，英国《金融时报》曾报道称，由于艺人直接向Spotify授权音乐，唱片公司保留了Spotify在印度的版权。\n而2018Q2电话会议中，Spotify更是表态称：我们并不拥有音乐的任何权益，不会扮演唱片公司的角色。\n参与上游内容输出之路走不通，Spotify难道要一直扮演“打工人”角色？答案当然是否定的。\n就目前的举措来看，Spotify将突破的切入口放在了下游。\n据Spotify财报：版税协议受诸如用户群的规模、广告支持用户与高级用户的比例以及任何适用的广告费和折扣等变量影响。我们已经为我们的低价订阅计划，如家庭计划、双人计划和学生计划用户协商了较低的每用户金额。\n也就是说，平台在拥有足够庞大的用户规模和影响力时，同样可以向上游版权商，争取议价权，给成本“减负”。\n基于此，Spotify在音乐主业务上，全球化扩张的步伐在加快。那么，事实是否能如其所愿呢？\n二、“激进”规模扩张，图“挟用户以令版权方”\n就规划来看，Spotify在规模扩张上所图不小。据其2021Q2电话会议：要将用户规模从4亿，扩大到10亿。\n策略定的如此“激进”，在于“诱惑”足够大。而这是有迹可循的。\n比如，2007年美国三大无线电视台之一的NBC（另两家是CBS、ABC），为了“迫使”苹果iTunes平台上交定价权，用拒绝续约，收回电视剧版权（在iTunes平台上下架）方式进行威胁。\n但手握渠道，坐拥庞大用户基础的苹果并没有妥协。反而是失去苹果渠道的NBC，因为大量观众转向盗版渠道，损失惨重，而不得不在一年后，重新与苹果公司签约。\n这样能与上游内容供应商“掰手腕”的能力，谁都想要，Spotify当然也一样。\n近年来，Spotify大举进攻全球市场。其中2019年以来，在欧美之外的亚非地区（下图的其他地区），Spotify用户拉升最迅猛。\n\n不过，这可能会引发一个问题：在以发展中国家为主的亚非地区，大力开拓市场，是否“划算”？\n如下图，受经济水平的影响，亚非地区（其他地区）的用户付费率远低于欧美等发达地区，且2018Q4之后，付费率水平一路走低。\n与此同时，为了在这些区域更有竞争（价格）优势，Spotify订阅服务的会员价格也不会定的太高，更别说频繁涨价。如此也拖累了Spotify整体的ARPPU值。\n\n由此来看，虽然在亚非地区的用户增长迅猛，但就短期来说，这些用户对Spotify的订阅收入贡献有限。\n而不依赖订阅，“入乡随俗”靠流量变现似乎也很难。数据显示，Spotify的广告收入截至2021Q1，占比总收入仍维持在10%左右。\n并且据2021Q2电话会议：这些广告商的主要来源，还是美国、欧洲，亚非地区的广告商比较少。\n\n短期ROI（投资回报率）显得“不经济”的同时，在亚非地区的用户增长本身似乎也出现了瓶颈。\n2021年2月，Spotify同时进军85个国家（亚非的发展中国家）市场，试图将市占率进一步提升，但结果并不如预期。\n如下图，2021Q1～Q2，Spotify的MAU同比增速，持续下降。\n\n对此，Spotify管理层在最新的电话会议中，给出的解释是：受新扩张地区新冠疫情的影响。\n但这种解释不太经得起推敲，可以看到疫情最严重的去年，2020Q1～Q3季度Spotify的MAU增速都在25%以上。\n与此相比，发展中国家的用户使用习惯差异和盗版问题，或许更接近原因。\n在很多互联网还没有全民普及的发展中国家，更下沉的市场，盗版音乐盛行，民众更没有用流媒体软件听音乐的习惯，这样的市场“啃起来”难度较大。\n综上来看，Spotify从下游入手，试图通过扩大用户规模，向版权方争取议价权。虽然对企业本身，以及颠覆音乐产业有着积极的影响。\n但受主力增长用户市场的经济条件和习惯的影响，想达到预期的用户目标（10亿）、可能需要较长的时间。据表外表里的测算，维持当前的增速下，跨度在5年左右。\n而在Spotify有能力“挟用户以令版权方”之前，Spotify不仅需要承受不断上调的版权协议，还可能要负担全球化扩张中，部分地区带来的低ROI（投资回报率）拖累。\n在音乐老本行里“革命”的战线太长，Spotify又将目光放在了音乐之外——在海外特别是北美市场流行的播客文化，试图“曲线救国”。\n这里面的具体逻辑为：平台以播客业务丰富用户体验，吸引新的消费群体，之后通过交叉消费，提升音乐订阅服务的规模，进而提高上游议价能力。\n不过，鉴于播客的“火热”，盯着这个赛道的人众多，苹果、亚马逊等巨头纷纷下场。竞争高压下，Spotify能否在播客领域做好“耳朵经济”的生意？\n三、加码播客，Spotify能否真正做“老板”？\n“耳朵经济”市场主要有两个方向，一个是音乐，一个是长音频，播客就属于后者。\n从制作端来看，播客内容主要以PGC/PUGC为主。其中，PGC是采买专业机构制作的内容；PUGC类似于B站上UP主产出视频的方式，只不过播客生产的是音频内容。\n这意味着，相较音乐，平台对播客内容，有很大的主导权，进而在拓展变现空间方面拥有更多的可能性。而这正是Spotify需要的。\n2018年，Spotify开始在博客领域的布局，甚至为了获得优质的播客资源，不断加码投入，具体包括内容采买和并购投资两种方式：\n\n\n采买：2020年初，超1亿美元签下全球知名播客节目“乔·罗根体验”（《The Joe Rogan Experience》）多年独家版权；此外，还与金·卡戴珊·韦斯特（Kim Kardashian West）、美国前总统奥巴马的媒体公司“高地制作公司”等达成音频合作。\n并购：如下图，凭借2019年开始的一系列投资并购，逐渐形成对播客业务研宣发一体化的制作闭环。\n\n\n\n通过采买和自制的不断扩充，Spotify的播客业务规模持续壮大，跃居全球第一。\n据2021Q2财报数据, Spotify平台目前有播客内容290万，其中包括400多个原创或独家播客（2020年底数据）；同时，播客用户已经占到平台总用户的25%，拉升效果显著。\n\n而拉新只是第一步，Spotify在播客业务上真正的“野心”，是将用户从“音乐的用户”变成“平台的用户”，以丰富内容生态，提升平台价值。\n据Spotify部门负责人Courtney Holt表示：“我们发现在Spotify播客上付费的用户，与Spotify黏度更高。”\n这样一来，用户跟着音乐版权走的情况打破，音乐业务的上游议价能力自然提升，同时播客业务上也可以拓展更多的变现“打法”，提升货币化率。\n以创作者端为例，Spotify推出系列货币化计划帮创作者创收，比如付费播客方案，就是由创作者自行决定订阅费用来增收。\n\n前期出于吸引创作者入驻的考虑，平台方表示在两年内，都不会就此计划将向创建者收取任何费用。\n而比起从创作者身上赚钱，挖掘广告业务的潜力才是平台货币化，同时也是补齐音乐业务广告收入短板的重点。\n2020年，Spotify针对播客业务推出流媒体广告插入（“SAI”）技术，该技术支持播客主持人在口播广告时，向听众推出优惠券。\n用户时长（粘性）增加，再搭配新的广告形式变现，播客“一跃”成为Spotify广告收入的主要拉动力。\n据2021Q2电话会议：播客广告收入同比增长超过627%（或在有机基础上接近200%），而持续的超额业绩，目前只受限于我们的库存供应。\n不过，播客业务对平台生态的拉动作用，虽然收效快，但长期持续性上，却面临不小的挑战。\n对Spotify的播客业务先发难的，就是利益受到威胁的版权方。据《金融时报》报道，华纳音乐试图提升Spotify的版权费用，来弥补因播客业务带来的音乐播放量下降。\n若Spotify没顶住压力妥协，意味着因播客带来的营收拉升，可能要被上涨的版权费消解。\n除了外部压力，Spotify自身对播客的发展方向也缺乏确定性。\n据Spotify首席财务官麦卡锡表示：“公司目前不确定采买节目和原创节目（用户生成或平台原创），哪一个在平台上更有成效。”\n基于此，Spotify现在对这两块都大力投资。但如果结果证明，用户对采买的内容更感兴趣，是不是意味着spotify的播客业务，可能要走音乐业务的“版权老路”？\n另外，上文说过，播客领域目前入局者众多，竞争激烈。在苹果、亚马逊等不输于自家的布局力度下，体量和生态不占优势的Spotify能否抵御住竞争，也是个变数。\n总之，以播客发展长音频的方式，Spotify通过将用户转为平台的，短期内，在规模和货币化方面补齐平台生态。但长期来看，受限于内外部压力，持续性如何需要时间检验。\n四、小结\n居高不下的版税成本，像一个“黑洞”，悬在一众音乐流媒体上空，不断将平台创造的业绩护城河“粉碎”。\n即便发展成全球最大的流媒体平台，Spotify依然没有跳出版权“漩涡”。\n全球化音乐业务扩张，拓展长音频播客业务丰富内容生态，平台试图通过直接、间接方式，掌控对上游内容的议价权。\n虽然目前这“两条腿”都存在一定的不确定性，但这种积极的尝试，对破除音乐产业链“根深蒂固”的版权问题，意义重大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802355150,"gmtCreate":1627722875970,"gmtModify":1703495230223,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi ☺️","listText":"Hi ☺️","text":"Hi ☺️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802355150","repostId":"1154964430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154964430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627698043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154964430?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 10:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"价值重塑：中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154964430","media":" 付鹏的财经世界","summary":"和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同","content":"<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：</p>\n<p>DIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；</p>\n<p>对于教育类中概股的冲击，谈不上是完全没有预期，如果说完全没有预期，要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的，要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位，中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的，最近风口浪尖上的新政策，都不是突发性的，基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的；</p>\n<p>对于市场中参与的资金来讲，他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险，但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说，这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小，事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来，资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的，也就是说，肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓；</p>\n<p>这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看，也是吻合的，基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓；</p>\n<p>现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭，资本开始不信任等这些因素，现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的；</p>\n<p>之前呢，资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断，房地产，教育，医疗，甚至是可能的医美，娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压，从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收，增长性等，但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层，基于这个逻辑，那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台，对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估，但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话，那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗？真的只是做一个简单的修正么？”</p>\n<p>此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心，就是这个问题，随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后，越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些，深思的是中国是不是玩真的了？如果是玩真的，那核心的问题是，这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是：整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了？</p>\n<p>如果这个答案是yes的话，那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于，这不是一个简单减仓，他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变（从一级市场到二级市场），商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了，那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的，如果只是一个政策的冲击，你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断，但这个还都在正常的逻辑下，但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了，那你可能甚至是说，整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类，甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话，那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题；</p>\n<p>所以，这几天的剧烈下跌，无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应，这和前面的下跌，本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量，虽然都是风控减仓，但内核是完全不同的；</p>\n<p>对中国目前来讲，穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value remodeling，那这样的话，很多的支撑之前估值、市值的商业模式是要发生根本变化的，所以对于资金来说，现在是完全要对这些已经甚至是可能未来受到中国政策影响的公司要进行重新的估值体系的定价；</p>","source":"fpdcjsj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>价值重塑：中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n价值重塑：中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 10:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ><strong> 付鹏的财经世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；\n对于教育类中概股...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","EDU":"新东方"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154964430","content_text":"和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录：\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然，这个准备是不足的，但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大，当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是，中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策，也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险，如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出，那可能影响就真的比较大了；\n对于教育类中概股的冲击，谈不上是完全没有预期，如果说完全没有预期，要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的，要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位，中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的，最近风口浪尖上的新政策，都不是突发性的，基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的；\n对于市场中参与的资金来讲，他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险，但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说，这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小，事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来，资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的，也就是说，肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓；\n这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看，也是吻合的，基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓；\n现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭，资本开始不信任等这些因素，现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的；\n之前呢，资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断，房地产，教育，医疗，甚至是可能的医美，娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压，从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收，增长性等，但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层，基于这个逻辑，那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台，对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估，但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话，那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗？真的只是做一个简单的修正么？”\n此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心，就是这个问题，随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后，越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些，深思的是中国是不是玩真的了？如果是玩真的，那核心的问题是，这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是：整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了？\n如果这个答案是yes的话，那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于，这不是一个简单减仓，他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变（从一级市场到二级市场），商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了，那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的，如果只是一个政策的冲击，你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断，但这个还都在正常的逻辑下，但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了，那你可能甚至是说，整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类，甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话，那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题；\n所以，这几天的剧烈下跌，无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应，这和前面的下跌，本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量，虽然都是风控减仓，但内核是完全不同的；\n对中国目前来讲，穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value remodeling，那这样的话，很多的支撑之前估值、市值的商业模式是要发生根本变化的，所以对于资金来说，现在是完全要对这些已经甚至是可能未来受到中国政策影响的公司要进行重新的估值体系的定价；","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806941594,"gmtCreate":1627627951318,"gmtModify":1703493663491,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806941594","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球市场8月怎么走？这些事件将影响风险情绪","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。</p>\n<p>8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。</p>\n<p><b>企业财报季</b></p>\n<p>在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。</p>\n<p>7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。</p>\n<p>市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。</p>\n<p>回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">霍尼韦尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报</a>公司和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。</p>\n<p>投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。</p>\n<p>但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。</p>\n<p><b>美联储政策支持和经济数据</b></p>\n<p>“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。</p>\n<p>美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。</p>\n<p>今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。</p>\n<p>今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。</p>\n<p>等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。</p>\n<p><b>美股波动率引发关注</b></p>\n<p>8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。</p>\n<p>8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球市场8月怎么走？这些事件将影响风险情绪</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球市场8月怎么走？这些事件将影响风险情绪\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。</p>\n<p>8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。</p>\n<p><b>企业财报季</b></p>\n<p>在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。</p>\n<p>7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。</p>\n<p>市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。</p>\n<p>回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">霍尼韦尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报</a>公司和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。</p>\n<p>投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。</p>\n<p>但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。</p>\n<p><b>美联储政策支持和经济数据</b></p>\n<p>“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。</p>\n<p>美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。</p>\n<p>今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。</p>\n<p>今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。</p>\n<p>等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。</p>\n<p><b>美股波动率引发关注</b></p>\n<p>8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。</p>\n<p>8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067127785,"gmtCreate":1652428113647,"gmtModify":1676535099081,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b36f7846fbe2cf42ce79b39e890da809","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067127785","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066863641,"gmtCreate":1651885962283,"gmtModify":1676534990483,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c31925877c7d24b91994a84da553576","width":"1080","height":"2240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066863641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063627298,"gmtCreate":1651463116548,"gmtModify":1676534911096,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f85d5e39bd3446236f5cac5142308721","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063627298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081462323,"gmtCreate":1650267420850,"gmtModify":1676534682668,"author":{"id":"4088639267266550","authorId":"4088639267266550","name":"mingming88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec74de8efaef0c387a7c858c35fab49","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088639267266550","authorIdStr":"4088639267266550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>good luck&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$good luck","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7987afb50fd7124c0db2de056dcd475a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083766456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}