kong1234 personal page - To The Moon

kong1234

kong1234

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2024-06-28

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2024-06-28

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2024-01-15

$小米集团-W(01810)$ hhhh

2024-01-14

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2024-01-13

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2024-01-12

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2024-01-11

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2024-01-10

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2024-01-09

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2024-01-08

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2024-01-07

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2024-01-06

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2024-01-05

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2024-01-04

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2024-01-03

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2024-01-02

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2024-01-01

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2024-01-01

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2024-01-01

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2023-12-31

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17:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金：如果美国通胀环比转负，如何配置资产？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301781070","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现</p><p>1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，<b>我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负</b>（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。总体通胀下行主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>如果预测兑现，本月通胀数据将是美国通胀连续第3个月超预期下行，也是疫后三年通胀环比增速首次明显进入负值区间，</b>可能有助于提振宽松预期与风险情绪，美债、黄金、成长风格股票都可能有阶段性表现机会。我们预测12月核心通胀环比0.24%（市场一致预期0.3%，克利夫兰美联储0.48%，前值0.2%）。医疗服务与核心商品通胀环比增速保持负数，同时房租对通胀推升效果持续减弱，是核心通胀维持弱势的主要原因。其他核心服务分项近期加速上行，可能反映美国劳动力市场仍然偏紧。但其他核心服务分项仅占总体通胀的13%，难以改变通胀下行大趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>另外，本月美国工资涨幅不及预期，同时美国劳动力市场供需缺口正在缓和，反映劳动力市场与服务通胀未来降温可期。使用中金大类资产CPI分项统计预测模型（《新视角看通胀变数与资产变局》），我们判断总体通胀环比负增长不具有持续性，未来几个月总体通胀环比增速更可能在0.2%附近。尽管如此，相对于2022年的中枢0.8%，最近几个月通胀环比增速已经下了一个大台阶。把通胀环比增速迭代，可以得到总体通胀同比路径。模型显示2023年6月份名义通胀同比增速或降至3%以下。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>尽管基准情景是高通胀有韧性，但如果不出现黑天鹅事件，美国通胀快速下行这一“变数情景”可能成为2023H1最重要的宏观主题之一，或对美联储货币政策与全球大类资产走势产生重大影响。对于中国市场，从春节到两会期间股票相对其他资产的相对优势逐渐体现。<b>美国通胀转负可能提升今年春季行情的兑现概率</b>。</p><p>美联储宽松预期或升温，超配美债、黄金、港股</p><p>尽管美国通胀已经在去年11-12月连续两次超预期下行，美联储却持续释放强烈鹰派信号，可能是<b>美联储在“紧缩过度”与“紧缩不足”之间根据风险收益权衡的结果</b>：联储2021年对通胀的判断出现严重失误，导致货币紧缩不足，美国通胀一度升至过去40年最高水平。如果联储在通胀得到控制之前过早宽松，可能使<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>信誉瓦解，公众不再相信联储能够控制住通胀，宏观环境重回70年代“大滞胀”时期，因此“紧缩不足”的代价较高。相比之下，“紧缩过度”虽然可能引发经济衰退，但本来市场已经广泛预期美国在2023年陷入衰退。与“紧缩不足”导致长期滞胀相比，经济衰退成本相对较低。因此美联储对通胀改善的反应相对滞后，宁可“紧缩过度”也不愿“紧缩不足”。</p><p>我们认为如果通胀数据持续改善，最终会让联储对通胀下行重拾信心。<b>通胀明显改善，叠加经济衰退风险与金融市场比较脆弱，联储提前结束紧缩周期或开启宽松周期的可能性并不低</b>，且不宜低估加息之后的降息幅度：联储散点图提示24年与25年累计降息幅度超过200bp。根据历史经验，2022年初至今2s10s曲线倒挂最大幅度达到84bp，对应未来联储降息幅度约为450bp。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>我们预测联储于2023Q1结束加息，加息终点在4.5%-5%区间；2023H2降息预期可能明显升温。如果出现黑天鹅事件导致金融市场震荡，也不能排除2023年提前结束缩表的可能性。即使联储口头继续放鹰，市场宽松预期也大概率会继续加码。根据当前美联储加息路径，可以推出十年期美债利率均衡价格在3.2%左右。我们维持观点不变，继续预测<b>十年期美债利率在2023Q1降至3%左右</b>。美债利率下行改善全球流动性，利好港股与黄金表现。我们在11月发布的《2023年大类资产展望：势极生变》中建议<b>超配美债、黄金与中国股票</b>，观点已经初步兑现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>若中国经济强劲复苏，2023H2需关注欧美通胀“二次冲顶”风险，股票从超配下调到标配</p><p>在去年6月发布的《大类资产2022H2展望：滞胀交易的下一站》中，我们提出“通胀成本再分配”的概念：在疫情之前的二十年，各大国经济增长往往可以互相促进，中国经济复苏有助于美欧经济增长，美国经济强劲有助于中欧经济增长。按照这一思路，2023年中国经济修复，有助于对冲全球经济放缓的负面影响。但在疫后世界，中美欧日等大型经济体的增长互动关系可能已经发生深刻变化：由于疫情冲击，全球范围内总供给小于总需求，大部分经济体通胀达到过去几十年最高水平。为使通胀降温，需要在全球范围内破坏总需求，才能实现供需平衡。如果中国经济明显修复，海外通胀压力可能再次升温。此时需要海外经济体进一步收紧货币政策，压缩总需求，即海外承担更多控制通胀的成本，可能对海外股市形成压制。由于全球股市联动性较强，海外市场震荡可能波及中国。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>根据其他国家/地区疫后复苏经验，经济修复往往不会一蹴而就，中国增长修复可能也是一个渐进过程，2023年经济增长可能前低后高。由于增长改善需要时间，从增长改善传导到通胀上行、通胀压力从国内传导到海外也需要时间，我们认为中国疫后复苏可能不会明显改变2023H1的海外通胀路径，但2023H2通胀不确定性升高。除了通胀“二次冲顶”风险，2023H2还需考虑海外衰退可能性与中国政策调整不确定性，风险因素明显增多，因此我们建议<b>资产配置上半年注重进攻，超配港股与A股；下半年转为防守，配置更加平衡稳健，将权益资产由超配下调为标配</b>（《2023年大类资产展望：势极生变》）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金：如果美国通胀环比转负，如何配置资产？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-07 17:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。总体通胀下行主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。如果预测兑现，本月通胀数据将是美国通胀连续第3个月超预期下行，也是疫后三年通胀环比增速首次明显进入负值区间，可能有助于提振宽松预期与风险情绪，美债、黄金、成长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95788229fc35f46529b4e1955e453669","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"标普500反向ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 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