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06-28
Hhhjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj
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01-15
$小米集团-W(01810)$
hhhh
kong1234
01-14
Yuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhjjjjjjj
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01-13
Ffffffffffffffffffffff
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01-12
Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjjjjjjjj
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01-11
Fffffffffffffffffffrr
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01-10
Fffffffffffffffffffffffffff
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Bbbbbbnnnbnnnnnnnnnjjjjjbbbhhh
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Bbhhhhhhjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjji
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01-07
Hhhhhhhhjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjji
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01-06
Ffffgggggggggggggggggffggft
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Ugug7vuvuvugibihuguv
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01-04
Jejenrjrjejrjrjrjurjrjdidjrbrjrjr
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Fffffffffggggggggggggffyjhhhhh
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01-02
6thththththtbyhththrhththththt
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01-01
Iinub8bibibububububyv6v6v6g7g
kong1234
01-01
6gyvybububububugyv6byvuguvuv6vyv6g6g6g66v6by
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01-01
hhhhhggghyvyvhvuvyvyvtvycyvyvyvyvygyvyv
@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅
kong1234
2023-12-31
Fffffffftttyyyyyyyyy
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17:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金:如果美国通胀环比转负,如何配置资产?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301781070","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国通胀环比可能转负,助力春季行情兑现1月12日(下周四)将公布美国12月CPI数据,我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负(中金大类资产-0.2%,市场一致预期0%,克利夫兰美联储0.12%,前值0.1%)。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国通胀环比可能转负,助力春季行情兑现</p><p>1月12日(下周四)将公布美国12月CPI数据,<b>我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负</b>(中金大类资产-0.2%,市场一致预期0%,克利夫兰美联储0.12%,前值0.1%)。总体通胀下行主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>如果预测兑现,本月通胀数据将是美国通胀连续第3个月超预期下行,也是疫后三年通胀环比增速首次明显进入负值区间,</b>可能有助于提振宽松预期与风险情绪,美债、黄金、成长风格股票都可能有阶段性表现机会。我们预测12月核心通胀环比0.24%(市场一致预期0.3%,克利夫兰美联储0.48%,前值0.2%)。医疗服务与核心商品通胀环比增速保持负数,同时房租对通胀推升效果持续减弱,是核心通胀维持弱势的主要原因。其他核心服务分项近期加速上行,可能反映美国劳动力市场仍然偏紧。但其他核心服务分项仅占总体通胀的13%,难以改变通胀下行大趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>另外,本月美国工资涨幅不及预期,同时美国劳动力市场供需缺口正在缓和,反映劳动力市场与服务通胀未来降温可期。使用中金大类资产CPI分项统计预测模型(《新视角看通胀变数与资产变局》),我们判断总体通胀环比负增长不具有持续性,未来几个月总体通胀环比增速更可能在0.2%附近。尽管如此,相对于2022年的中枢0.8%,最近几个月通胀环比增速已经下了一个大台阶。把通胀环比增速迭代,可以得到总体通胀同比路径。模型显示2023年6月份名义通胀同比增速或降至3%以下。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>尽管基准情景是高通胀有韧性,但如果不出现黑天鹅事件,美国通胀快速下行这一“变数情景”可能成为2023H1最重要的宏观主题之一,或对美联储货币政策与全球大类资产走势产生重大影响。对于中国市场,从春节到两会期间股票相对其他资产的相对优势逐渐体现。<b>美国通胀转负可能提升今年春季行情的兑现概率</b>。</p><p>美联储宽松预期或升温,超配美债、黄金、港股</p><p>尽管美国通胀已经在去年11-12月连续两次超预期下行,美联储却持续释放强烈鹰派信号,可能是<b>美联储在“紧缩过度”与“紧缩不足”之间根据风险收益权衡的结果</b>:联储2021年对通胀的判断出现严重失误,导致货币紧缩不足,美国通胀一度升至过去40年最高水平。如果联储在通胀得到控制之前过早宽松,可能使<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>信誉瓦解,公众不再相信联储能够控制住通胀,宏观环境重回70年代“大滞胀”时期,因此“紧缩不足”的代价较高。相比之下,“紧缩过度”虽然可能引发经济衰退,但本来市场已经广泛预期美国在2023年陷入衰退。与“紧缩不足”导致长期滞胀相比,经济衰退成本相对较低。因此美联储对通胀改善的反应相对滞后,宁可“紧缩过度”也不愿“紧缩不足”。</p><p>我们认为如果通胀数据持续改善,最终会让联储对通胀下行重拾信心。<b>通胀明显改善,叠加经济衰退风险与金融市场比较脆弱,联储提前结束紧缩周期或开启宽松周期的可能性并不低</b>,且不宜低估加息之后的降息幅度:联储散点图提示24年与25年累计降息幅度超过200bp。根据历史经验,2022年初至今2s10s曲线倒挂最大幅度达到84bp,对应未来联储降息幅度约为450bp。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>我们预测联储于2023Q1结束加息,加息终点在4.5%-5%区间;2023H2降息预期可能明显升温。如果出现黑天鹅事件导致金融市场震荡,也不能排除2023年提前结束缩表的可能性。即使联储口头继续放鹰,市场宽松预期也大概率会继续加码。根据当前美联储加息路径,可以推出十年期美债利率均衡价格在3.2%左右。我们维持观点不变,继续预测<b>十年期美债利率在2023Q1降至3%左右</b>。美债利率下行改善全球流动性,利好港股与黄金表现。我们在11月发布的《2023年大类资产展望:势极生变》中建议<b>超配美债、黄金与中国股票</b>,观点已经初步兑现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>若中国经济强劲复苏,2023H2需关注欧美通胀“二次冲顶”风险,股票从超配下调到标配</p><p>在去年6月发布的《大类资产2022H2展望:滞胀交易的下一站》中,我们提出“通胀成本再分配”的概念:在疫情之前的二十年,各大国经济增长往往可以互相促进,中国经济复苏有助于美欧经济增长,美国经济强劲有助于中欧经济增长。按照这一思路,2023年中国经济修复,有助于对冲全球经济放缓的负面影响。但在疫后世界,中美欧日等大型经济体的增长互动关系可能已经发生深刻变化:由于疫情冲击,全球范围内总供给小于总需求,大部分经济体通胀达到过去几十年最高水平。为使通胀降温,需要在全球范围内破坏总需求,才能实现供需平衡。如果中国经济明显修复,海外通胀压力可能再次升温。此时需要海外经济体进一步收紧货币政策,压缩总需求,即海外承担更多控制通胀的成本,可能对海外股市形成压制。由于全球股市联动性较强,海外市场震荡可能波及中国。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>根据其他国家/地区疫后复苏经验,经济修复往往不会一蹴而就,中国增长修复可能也是一个渐进过程,2023年经济增长可能前低后高。由于增长改善需要时间,从增长改善传导到通胀上行、通胀压力从国内传导到海外也需要时间,我们认为中国疫后复苏可能不会明显改变2023H1的海外通胀路径,但2023H2通胀不确定性升高。除了通胀“二次冲顶”风险,2023H2还需考虑海外衰退可能性与中国政策调整不确定性,风险因素明显增多,因此我们建议<b>资产配置上半年注重进攻,超配港股与A股;下半年转为防守,配置更加平衡稳健,将权益资产由超配下调为标配</b>(《2023年大类资产展望:势极生变》)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金:如果美国通胀环比转负,如何配置资产?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-07 17:11 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国通胀环比可能转负,助力春季行情兑现1月12日(下周四)将公布美国12月CPI数据,我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负(中金大类资产-0.2%,市场一致预期0%,克利夫兰美联储0.12%,前值0.1%)。总体通胀下行主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。如果预测兑现,本月通胀数据将是美国通胀连续第3个月超预期下行,也是疫后三年通胀环比增速首次明显进入负值区间,可能有助于提振宽松预期与风险情绪,美债、黄金、成长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95788229fc35f46529b4e1955e453669","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2301781070","content_text":"美国通胀环比可能转负,助力春季行情兑现1月12日(下周四)将公布美国12月CPI数据,我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负(中金大类资产-0.2%,市场一致预期0%,克利夫兰美联储0.12%,前值0.1%)。总体通胀下行主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。如果预测兑现,本月通胀数据将是美国通胀连续第3个月超预期下行,也是疫后三年通胀环比增速首次明显进入负值区间,可能有助于提振宽松预期与风险情绪,美债、黄金、成长风格股票都可能有阶段性表现机会。我们预测12月核心通胀环比0.24%(市场一致预期0.3%,克利夫兰美联储0.48%,前值0.2%)。医疗服务与核心商品通胀环比增速保持负数,同时房租对通胀推升效果持续减弱,是核心通胀维持弱势的主要原因。其他核心服务分项近期加速上行,可能反映美国劳动力市场仍然偏紧。但其他核心服务分项仅占总体通胀的13%,难以改变通胀下行大趋势。另外,本月美国工资涨幅不及预期,同时美国劳动力市场供需缺口正在缓和,反映劳动力市场与服务通胀未来降温可期。使用中金大类资产CPI分项统计预测模型(《新视角看通胀变数与资产变局》),我们判断总体通胀环比负增长不具有持续性,未来几个月总体通胀环比增速更可能在0.2%附近。尽管如此,相对于2022年的中枢0.8%,最近几个月通胀环比增速已经下了一个大台阶。把通胀环比增速迭代,可以得到总体通胀同比路径。模型显示2023年6月份名义通胀同比增速或降至3%以下。尽管基准情景是高通胀有韧性,但如果不出现黑天鹅事件,美国通胀快速下行这一“变数情景”可能成为2023H1最重要的宏观主题之一,或对美联储货币政策与全球大类资产走势产生重大影响。对于中国市场,从春节到两会期间股票相对其他资产的相对优势逐渐体现。美国通胀转负可能提升今年春季行情的兑现概率。美联储宽松预期或升温,超配美债、黄金、港股尽管美国通胀已经在去年11-12月连续两次超预期下行,美联储却持续释放强烈鹰派信号,可能是美联储在“紧缩过度”与“紧缩不足”之间根据风险收益权衡的结果:联储2021年对通胀的判断出现严重失误,导致货币紧缩不足,美国通胀一度升至过去40年最高水平。如果联储在通胀得到控制之前过早宽松,可能使中央银行信誉瓦解,公众不再相信联储能够控制住通胀,宏观环境重回70年代“大滞胀”时期,因此“紧缩不足”的代价较高。相比之下,“紧缩过度”虽然可能引发经济衰退,但本来市场已经广泛预期美国在2023年陷入衰退。与“紧缩不足”导致长期滞胀相比,经济衰退成本相对较低。因此美联储对通胀改善的反应相对滞后,宁可“紧缩过度”也不愿“紧缩不足”。我们认为如果通胀数据持续改善,最终会让联储对通胀下行重拾信心。通胀明显改善,叠加经济衰退风险与金融市场比较脆弱,联储提前结束紧缩周期或开启宽松周期的可能性并不低,且不宜低估加息之后的降息幅度:联储散点图提示24年与25年累计降息幅度超过200bp。根据历史经验,2022年初至今2s10s曲线倒挂最大幅度达到84bp,对应未来联储降息幅度约为450bp。我们预测联储于2023Q1结束加息,加息终点在4.5%-5%区间;2023H2降息预期可能明显升温。如果出现黑天鹅事件导致金融市场震荡,也不能排除2023年提前结束缩表的可能性。即使联储口头继续放鹰,市场宽松预期也大概率会继续加码。根据当前美联储加息路径,可以推出十年期美债利率均衡价格在3.2%左右。我们维持观点不变,继续预测十年期美债利率在2023Q1降至3%左右。美债利率下行改善全球流动性,利好港股与黄金表现。我们在11月发布的《2023年大类资产展望:势极生变》中建议超配美债、黄金与中国股票,观点已经初步兑现。若中国经济强劲复苏,2023H2需关注欧美通胀“二次冲顶”风险,股票从超配下调到标配在去年6月发布的《大类资产2022H2展望:滞胀交易的下一站》中,我们提出“通胀成本再分配”的概念:在疫情之前的二十年,各大国经济增长往往可以互相促进,中国经济复苏有助于美欧经济增长,美国经济强劲有助于中欧经济增长。按照这一思路,2023年中国经济修复,有助于对冲全球经济放缓的负面影响。但在疫后世界,中美欧日等大型经济体的增长互动关系可能已经发生深刻变化:由于疫情冲击,全球范围内总供给小于总需求,大部分经济体通胀达到过去几十年最高水平。为使通胀降温,需要在全球范围内破坏总需求,才能实现供需平衡。如果中国经济明显修复,海外通胀压力可能再次升温。此时需要海外经济体进一步收紧货币政策,压缩总需求,即海外承担更多控制通胀的成本,可能对海外股市形成压制。由于全球股市联动性较强,海外市场震荡可能波及中国。根据其他国家/地区疫后复苏经验,经济修复往往不会一蹴而就,中国增长修复可能也是一个渐进过程,2023年经济增长可能前低后高。由于增长改善需要时间,从增长改善传导到通胀上行、通胀压力从国内传导到海外也需要时间,我们认为中国疫后复苏可能不会明显改变2023H1的海外通胀路径,但2023H2通胀不确定性升高。除了通胀“二次冲顶”风险,2023H2还需考虑海外衰退可能性与中国政策调整不确定性,风险因素明显增多,因此我们建议资产配置上半年注重进攻,超配港股与A股;下半年转为防守,配置更加平衡稳健,将权益资产由超配下调为标配(《2023年大类资产展望:势极生变》)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956911081,"gmtCreate":1673878697044,"gmtModify":1676538897879,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092297677526970","authorIdStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956911081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958693623,"gmtCreate":1673709585163,"gmtModify":1676538877162,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092297677526970","authorIdStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958693623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958965475,"gmtCreate":1673615783697,"gmtModify":1676538865233,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092297677526970","authorIdStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958965475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951539820,"gmtCreate":1673512709960,"gmtModify":1676538848790,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092297677526970","authorIdStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"7rurbrhrh","lis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