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CICC: How to allocate assets if inflation in the United States turns negative from the previous month?
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TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9958498520,"gmtCreate":1673793755061,"gmtModify":1676538886289,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958498520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951539142,"gmtCreate":1673512696086,"gmtModify":1676538848790,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951539142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953044156,"gmtCreate":1673110876175,"gmtModify":1676538788595,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953044156","repostId":"2301781070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301781070","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673082665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2301781070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 17:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: How to allocate assets if inflation in the United States turns negative from the previous month?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301781070","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. inflation may turn negative from the previous month, helping the spring market to cash in</p><p>On January 12th (next Thursday), the US December CPI data will be released.<b>We forecast negative headline inflation sequential growth</b>(CICC major assets-0.2%, consensus estimate 0%, Cleveland Federal Reserve 0.12%, previous value 0.1%). The downward trend in overall inflation was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the forecast is fulfilled, this month's inflation data will be the third consecutive month that inflation in the United States has declined beyond expectations, and it is also the first time that the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has obviously entered a negative range in the three years after the epidemic.</b>It may help to boost loose expectations and risk sentiment, and U.S. bonds, gold and growth-style stocks may all have staged performance opportunities. We forecast core inflation of 0.24% month over month in December (consensus 0.3%, Cleveland Fed 0.48%, previous value 0.2%). The month-on-month growth rate of inflation in medical services and core commodities remained negative, and the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken, which was the main reason why core inflation remained weak. Other core service sub-items have accelerated upward recently, which may reflect that the U.S. labor market is still tight. However, other core services only account for 13% of the overall inflation, which makes it difficult to change the downward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, this month, the wage increase in the United States was less than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market is easing, reflecting that the labor market and service inflation can be expected to cool down in the future. Using the CPI sub-item statistical forecast model of CICC's major assets (\"Inflation Variables and Asset Changes from a New Perspective\"), we judge that the negative month-on-month growth of overall inflation is not sustainable, and the month-on-month growth rate of overall inflation in the next few months is more likely to be around 0.2%. Still, the month-over-month rate of inflation growth has come down a big step in recent months relative to the hub of 0.8% in 2022. By iterating the month-on-month growth rate of inflation, we can get the year-on-year path of overall inflation. The model shows that nominal inflation may fall below 3% year-on-year in June 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the benchmark scenario is that high inflation is resilient, if there is no black swan event, the \"variable scenario\" of rapid downward inflation in the United States may become one of the most important macro themes in 2023H1, or have a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the trend of global asset classes. For the Chinese market, from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, the comparative advantage of stocks over other assets gradually reflects.<b>Negative inflation in the United States may raise the probability of cashing in this spring's market</b>。</p><p>The Fed's easing expectations or warming up, overweighting US bonds, gold and Hong Kong stocks</p><p>Although U.S. inflation has fallen more than expected twice in a row from November to December last year, the Federal Reserve has continued to release strong hawkish signals, which may be<b>The results of the Fed's risk-return trade-off between \"overtightening\" and \"undertightening\"</b>: The Fed's serious misjudgment of inflation in 2021 led to insufficient monetary tightening, and U.S. inflation at one point rose to its highest level in the past 40 years. If the Fed eases prematurely before inflation is contained, it could<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Credibility collapsed, the public no longer believed that the Fed could control inflation, and the macro environment returned to the \"great stagflation\" period of the 1970s, so the price of \"insufficient tightening\" was higher. In contrast, \"excessive tightening\" may trigger a recession, but the market had already widely expected the United States to fall into recession in 2023. Recession costs are relatively low compared to \"insufficient tightening\" leading to prolonged stagflation. Therefore, the Fed's response to the improvement of inflation is relatively lagging behind, and it would rather \"tighten excessively\" than \"tighten insufficiently\".</p><p>We believe that if the inflation data continues to improve, it will eventually allow the Fed to regain confidence in the downward trend of inflation.<b>With the obvious improvement in inflation, the risk of superimposed economic recession and the fragility of the financial market, the possibility of the Fed ending the tightening cycle or opening the easing cycle ahead of schedule is not low</b>And it is not advisable to underestimate the interest rate cut after rate hike: the Fed's scatter chart suggests that the cumulative interest rate cut in 24 and 25 years exceeds 200bp. According to historical experience, the maximum inversion of the 2s10s curve from the beginning of 2022 to date has reached 84bp, corresponding to the future interest rate cut of the Fed of about 450bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We predict that the Fed will end its rate hike in 2023Q1, with the rate hike endpoint in the 4.5%-5% range; Expectations of rate cuts in 2023H2 may heat up significantly. If there is a black swan event that causes financial markets to shock, the possibility of an early end to the shrinking balance sheet in 2023 cannot be ruled out. Even if the Fed continues to hawk verbally, there is a high probability that market easing expectations will continue to increase. According to the current Fed rate hike path, a ten-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price can be introduced at around 3.2%. We keep our view unchanged and continue to forecast<b>Ten-year US Treasury yields drops to around 3% in 2023Q1</b>。 The downward trend of US Treasury yields improves global liquidity, which is beneficial to the performance of Hong Kong stocks and gold. We recommended in our 2023 Asset Class Outlook: Changing Moments, released in November<b>Overweight U.S. Debt, Gold and Chinese Stocks</b>, the view has been initially fulfilled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If China's economy recovers strongly, 2023H2 needs to pay attention to the risk of \"second topping\" of inflation in Europe and the United States, and stocks will be downgraded from overweight to standard</p><p>In the \"2022H2 Outlook for Major Assets Classes: The Next Stop for Stagflation Trading\" released in June last year, we put forward the concept of \"inflation cost redistribution\": in the two decades before the pandemic, the economic growth of major countries can often promote each other, China's economic recovery will help the economic growth of the United States and Europe, and a strong U.S. economy will help the economic growth of China and Europe. Along this line of thinking, China's economic repair in 2023 will help hedge against the negative impact of the global economic slowdown. However, in the post-pandemic world, the growth interaction of large economies such as China, the United States, Europe and Japan may have undergone profound changes: due to the impact of the pandemic, global aggregate supply is less than aggregate demand, and inflation in most economies has reached the highest level in the past few decades. To cool inflation, aggregate demand needs to be disrupted globally in order to achieve a balance between supply and demand. If China's economy is clearly repaired, overseas inflationary pressures may heat up again. At this time, overseas economies need to further tighten monetary policies and compress aggregate demand, that is, overseas economies should bear more costs of controlling inflation, which may suppress overseas stock markets. Due to the strong linkage of global stock markets, overseas market volatility may spread to China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to the post-epidemic recovery experience of other countries/regions, economic recovery often does not happen overnight, and China's growth recovery may also be a gradual process. In 2023, economic growth may be low before and then high. As it takes time for growth to improve, and it also takes time to transmit from growth improvement to upward inflation and inflationary pressure from domestic to overseas, we believe that China's post-epidemic recovery may not significantly change the overseas inflation path in 2023H1, but the uncertainty of inflation will rise in 2023H2. In addition to the risk of \"second topping\" of inflation, the possibility of overseas recession and the uncertainty of China's policy adjustment need to be considered in 2023H2, and the risk factors have obviously increased. Therefore, we recommend that<b>In the first half of the year, asset allocation focused on offensive, overallocating Hong Kong stocks and A shares; In the second half of the year, it turned to defensive, and the allocation was more balanced and stable, and the equity assets were lowered from overweight to standard allocation</b>(\"Asset Class Outlook 2023: Extreme Change\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: How to allocate assets if inflation in the United States turns negative from the previous month?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: How to allocate assets if inflation in the United States turns negative from the previous month?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-07 17:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. inflation may turn negative from the previous month, helping the spring market to cash in</p><p>On January 12th (next Thursday), the US December CPI data will be released.<b>We forecast negative headline inflation sequential growth</b>(CICC major assets-0.2%, consensus estimate 0%, Cleveland Federal Reserve 0.12%, previous value 0.1%). The downward trend in overall inflation was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the forecast is fulfilled, this month's inflation data will be the third consecutive month that inflation in the United States has declined beyond expectations, and it is also the first time that the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has obviously entered a negative range in the three years after the epidemic.</b>It may help to boost loose expectations and risk sentiment, and U.S. bonds, gold and growth-style stocks may all have staged performance opportunities. We forecast core inflation of 0.24% month over month in December (consensus 0.3%, Cleveland Fed 0.48%, previous value 0.2%). The month-on-month growth rate of inflation in medical services and core commodities remained negative, and the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken, which was the main reason why core inflation remained weak. Other core service sub-items have accelerated upward recently, which may reflect that the U.S. labor market is still tight. However, other core services only account for 13% of the overall inflation, which makes it difficult to change the downward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, this month, the wage increase in the United States was less than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market is easing, reflecting that the labor market and service inflation can be expected to cool down in the future. Using the CPI sub-item statistical forecast model of CICC's major assets (\"Inflation Variables and Asset Changes from a New Perspective\"), we judge that the negative month-on-month growth of overall inflation is not sustainable, and the month-on-month growth rate of overall inflation in the next few months is more likely to be around 0.2%. Still, the month-over-month rate of inflation growth has come down a big step in recent months relative to the hub of 0.8% in 2022. By iterating the month-on-month growth rate of inflation, we can get the year-on-year path of overall inflation. The model shows that nominal inflation may fall below 3% year-on-year in June 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the benchmark scenario is that high inflation is resilient, if there is no black swan event, the \"variable scenario\" of rapid downward inflation in the United States may become one of the most important macro themes in 2023H1, or have a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the trend of global asset classes. For the Chinese market, from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, the comparative advantage of stocks over other assets gradually reflects.<b>Negative inflation in the United States may raise the probability of cashing in this spring's market</b>。</p><p>The Fed's easing expectations or warming up, overweighting US bonds, gold and Hong Kong stocks</p><p>Although U.S. inflation has fallen more than expected twice in a row from November to December last year, the Federal Reserve has continued to release strong hawkish signals, which may be<b>The results of the Fed's risk-return trade-off between \"overtightening\" and \"undertightening\"</b>: The Fed's serious misjudgment of inflation in 2021 led to insufficient monetary tightening, and U.S. inflation at one point rose to its highest level in the past 40 years. If the Fed eases prematurely before inflation is contained, it could<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Credibility collapsed, the public no longer believed that the Fed could control inflation, and the macro environment returned to the \"great stagflation\" period of the 1970s, so the price of \"insufficient tightening\" was higher. In contrast, \"excessive tightening\" may trigger a recession, but the market had already widely expected the United States to fall into recession in 2023. Recession costs are relatively low compared to \"insufficient tightening\" leading to prolonged stagflation. Therefore, the Fed's response to the improvement of inflation is relatively lagging behind, and it would rather \"tighten excessively\" than \"tighten insufficiently\".</p><p>We believe that if the inflation data continues to improve, it will eventually allow the Fed to regain confidence in the downward trend of inflation.<b>With the obvious improvement in inflation, the risk of superimposed economic recession and the fragility of the financial market, the possibility of the Fed ending the tightening cycle or opening the easing cycle ahead of schedule is not low</b>And it is not advisable to underestimate the interest rate cut after rate hike: the Fed's scatter chart suggests that the cumulative interest rate cut in 24 and 25 years exceeds 200bp. According to historical experience, the maximum inversion of the 2s10s curve from the beginning of 2022 to date has reached 84bp, corresponding to the future interest rate cut of the Fed of about 450bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We predict that the Fed will end its rate hike in 2023Q1, with the rate hike endpoint in the 4.5%-5% range; Expectations of rate cuts in 2023H2 may heat up significantly. If there is a black swan event that causes financial markets to shock, the possibility of an early end to the shrinking balance sheet in 2023 cannot be ruled out. Even if the Fed continues to hawk verbally, there is a high probability that market easing expectations will continue to increase. According to the current Fed rate hike path, a ten-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price can be introduced at around 3.2%. We keep our view unchanged and continue to forecast<b>Ten-year US Treasury yields drops to around 3% in 2023Q1</b>。 The downward trend of US Treasury yields improves global liquidity, which is beneficial to the performance of Hong Kong stocks and gold. We recommended in our 2023 Asset Class Outlook: Changing Moments, released in November<b>Overweight U.S. Debt, Gold and Chinese Stocks</b>, the view has been initially fulfilled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If China's economy recovers strongly, 2023H2 needs to pay attention to the risk of \"second topping\" of inflation in Europe and the United States, and stocks will be downgraded from overweight to standard</p><p>In the \"2022H2 Outlook for Major Assets Classes: The Next Stop for Stagflation Trading\" released in June last year, we put forward the concept of \"inflation cost redistribution\": in the two decades before the pandemic, the economic growth of major countries can often promote each other, China's economic recovery will help the economic growth of the United States and Europe, and a strong U.S. economy will help the economic growth of China and Europe. Along this line of thinking, China's economic repair in 2023 will help hedge against the negative impact of the global economic slowdown. However, in the post-pandemic world, the growth interaction of large economies such as China, the United States, Europe and Japan may have undergone profound changes: due to the impact of the pandemic, global aggregate supply is less than aggregate demand, and inflation in most economies has reached the highest level in the past few decades. To cool inflation, aggregate demand needs to be disrupted globally in order to achieve a balance between supply and demand. If China's economy is clearly repaired, overseas inflationary pressures may heat up again. At this time, overseas economies need to further tighten monetary policies and compress aggregate demand, that is, overseas economies should bear more costs of controlling inflation, which may suppress overseas stock markets. Due to the strong linkage of global stock markets, overseas market volatility may spread to China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to the post-epidemic recovery experience of other countries/regions, economic recovery often does not happen overnight, and China's growth recovery may also be a gradual process. In 2023, economic growth may be low before and then high. As it takes time for growth to improve, and it also takes time to transmit from growth improvement to upward inflation and inflationary pressure from domestic to overseas, we believe that China's post-epidemic recovery may not significantly change the overseas inflation path in 2023H1, but the uncertainty of inflation will rise in 2023H2. In addition to the risk of \"second topping\" of inflation, the possibility of overseas recession and the uncertainty of China's policy adjustment need to be considered in 2023H2, and the risk factors have obviously increased. Therefore, we recommend that<b>In the first half of the year, asset allocation focused on offensive, overallocating Hong Kong stocks and A shares; In the second half of the year, it turned to defensive, and the allocation was more balanced and stable, and the equity assets were lowered from overweight to standard allocation</b>(\"Asset Class Outlook 2023: Extreme Change\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95788229fc35f46529b4e1955e453669","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2301781070","content_text":"美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。总体通胀下行主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。如果预测兑现，本月通胀数据将是美国通胀连续第3个月超预期下行，也是疫后三年通胀环比增速首次明显进入负值区间，可能有助于提振宽松预期与风险情绪，美债、黄金、成长风格股票都可能有阶段性表现机会。我们预测12月核心通胀环比0.24%（市场一致预期0.3%，克利夫兰美联储0.48%，前值0.2%）。医疗服务与核心商品通胀环比增速保持负数，同时房租对通胀推升效果持续减弱，是核心通胀维持弱势的主要原因。其他核心服务分项近期加速上行，可能反映美国劳动力市场仍然偏紧。但其他核心服务分项仅占总体通胀的13%，难以改变通胀下行大趋势。另外，本月美国工资涨幅不及预期，同时美国劳动力市场供需缺口正在缓和，反映劳动力市场与服务通胀未来降温可期。使用中金大类资产CPI分项统计预测模型（《新视角看通胀变数与资产变局》），我们判断总体通胀环比负增长不具有持续性，未来几个月总体通胀环比增速更可能在0.2%附近。尽管如此，相对于2022年的中枢0.8%，最近几个月通胀环比增速已经下了一个大台阶。把通胀环比增速迭代，可以得到总体通胀同比路径。模型显示2023年6月份名义通胀同比增速或降至3%以下。尽管基准情景是高通胀有韧性，但如果不出现黑天鹅事件，美国通胀快速下行这一“变数情景”可能成为2023H1最重要的宏观主题之一，或对美联储货币政策与全球大类资产走势产生重大影响。对于中国市场，从春节到两会期间股票相对其他资产的相对优势逐渐体现。美国通胀转负可能提升今年春季行情的兑现概率。美联储宽松预期或升温，超配美债、黄金、港股尽管美国通胀已经在去年11-12月连续两次超预期下行，美联储却持续释放强烈鹰派信号，可能是美联储在“紧缩过度”与“紧缩不足”之间根据风险收益权衡的结果：联储2021年对通胀的判断出现严重失误，导致货币紧缩不足，美国通胀一度升至过去40年最高水平。如果联储在通胀得到控制之前过早宽松，可能使中央银行信誉瓦解，公众不再相信联储能够控制住通胀，宏观环境重回70年代“大滞胀”时期，因此“紧缩不足”的代价较高。相比之下，“紧缩过度”虽然可能引发经济衰退，但本来市场已经广泛预期美国在2023年陷入衰退。与“紧缩不足”导致长期滞胀相比，经济衰退成本相对较低。因此美联储对通胀改善的反应相对滞后，宁可“紧缩过度”也不愿“紧缩不足”。我们认为如果通胀数据持续改善，最终会让联储对通胀下行重拾信心。通胀明显改善，叠加经济衰退风险与金融市场比较脆弱，联储提前结束紧缩周期或开启宽松周期的可能性并不低，且不宜低估加息之后的降息幅度：联储散点图提示24年与25年累计降息幅度超过200bp。根据历史经验，2022年初至今2s10s曲线倒挂最大幅度达到84bp，对应未来联储降息幅度约为450bp。我们预测联储于2023Q1结束加息，加息终点在4.5%-5%区间；2023H2降息预期可能明显升温。如果出现黑天鹅事件导致金融市场震荡，也不能排除2023年提前结束缩表的可能性。即使联储口头继续放鹰，市场宽松预期也大概率会继续加码。根据当前美联储加息路径，可以推出十年期美债利率均衡价格在3.2%左右。我们维持观点不变，继续预测十年期美债利率在2023Q1降至3%左右。美债利率下行改善全球流动性，利好港股与黄金表现。我们在11月发布的《2023年大类资产展望：势极生变》中建议超配美债、黄金与中国股票，观点已经初步兑现。若中国经济强劲复苏，2023H2需关注欧美通胀“二次冲顶”风险，股票从超配下调到标配在去年6月发布的《大类资产2022H2展望：滞胀交易的下一站》中，我们提出“通胀成本再分配”的概念：在疫情之前的二十年，各大国经济增长往往可以互相促进，中国经济复苏有助于美欧经济增长，美国经济强劲有助于中欧经济增长。按照这一思路，2023年中国经济修复，有助于对冲全球经济放缓的负面影响。但在疫后世界，中美欧日等大型经济体的增长互动关系可能已经发生深刻变化：由于疫情冲击，全球范围内总供给小于总需求，大部分经济体通胀达到过去几十年最高水平。为使通胀降温，需要在全球范围内破坏总需求，才能实现供需平衡。如果中国经济明显修复，海外通胀压力可能再次升温。此时需要海外经济体进一步收紧货币政策，压缩总需求，即海外承担更多控制通胀的成本，可能对海外股市形成压制。由于全球股市联动性较强，海外市场震荡可能波及中国。根据其他国家/地区疫后复苏经验，经济修复往往不会一蹴而就，中国增长修复可能也是一个渐进过程，2023年经济增长可能前低后高。由于增长改善需要时间，从增长改善传导到通胀上行、通胀压力从国内传导到海外也需要时间，我们认为中国疫后复苏可能不会明显改变2023H1的海外通胀路径，但2023H2通胀不确定性升高。除了通胀“二次冲顶”风险，2023H2还需考虑海外衰退可能性与中国政策调整不确定性，风险因素明显增多，因此我们建议资产配置上半年注重进攻，超配港股与A股；下半年转为防守，配置更加平衡稳健，将权益资产由超配下调为标配（《2023年大类资产展望：势极生变》）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPY":0.76,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":0.76,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.76,"QLD":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956911081,"gmtCreate":1673878697044,"gmtModify":1676538897879,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956911081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958693623,"gmtCreate":1673709585163,"gmtModify":1676538877162,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958693623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958965475,"gmtCreate":1673615783697,"gmtModify":1676538865233,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092297677526970","idStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958965475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":99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