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CICC: If U.S. inflation turns negative month-on-month, how to allocate assets?
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TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9958498520,"gmtCreate":1673793755061,"gmtModify":1676538886289,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092297677526970","authorIdStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958498520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951539142,"gmtCreate":1673512696086,"gmtModify":1676538848790,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092297677526970","authorIdStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951539142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953044156,"gmtCreate":1673110876175,"gmtModify":1676538788595,"author":{"id":"4092297677526970","authorId":"4092297677526970","name":"kong1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56ef57433019cb8130e7b5574fa030b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092297677526970","authorIdStr":"4092297677526970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953044156","repostId":"2301781070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301781070","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673082665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2301781070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 17:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: If U.S. inflation turns negative month-on-month, how to allocate assets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301781070","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国通胀环比可能转负，助力春季行情兑现1月12日（下周四）将公布美国12月CPI数据，我们预测总体通胀环比增速转负（中金大类资产-0.2%，市场一致预期0%，克利夫兰美联储0.12%，前值0.1%）。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. inflation may turn negative month-on-month, helping the spring market realize</p><p>U.S. December CPI data will be released on January 12 (next Thursday).<b>We predict that headline inflation growth will turn negative month-on-month</b>(CICC's major assets-0.2%, market consensus expectation is 0%, Cleveland Federal Reserve 0.12%, previous value 0.1%). The downward trend in overall inflation was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the forecast is fulfilled, this month's inflation data will be the third consecutive month that U.S. inflation has fallen beyond expectations, and it will also be the first time that the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has significantly entered a negative range in the three years after the epidemic.</b>It may help boost easing expectations and risk sentiment, and U.S. debt, gold, and growth-style stocks may all have periodic performance opportunities. We forecast core inflation in December to be 0.24% month-on-month (market consensus expectation is 0.3%, Cleveland Fed 0.48%, previous value 0.2%). The month-on-month growth rate of medical services and core commodity inflation remained negative, while the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken, which was the main reason why core inflation remained weak. Other core service sub-items have accelerated recently, which may reflect that the U.S. labor market is still tight. However, other core service sub-items only account for 13% of the overall inflation, making it difficult to change the general downward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, the increase in U.S. wages this month was lower than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market is easing, reflecting that labor market and service inflation can cool down in the future. Using the CPI sub-statistical forecast model of CICC's major asset categories (\"Inflation Variables and Asset Changes from a New Perspective\"), we judge that the negative month-on-month growth of overall inflation is not sustainable, and the month-on-month growth rate of overall inflation in the next few months is more likely to be around 0.2%. Despite this, relative to the central 0.8% in 2022, the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has dropped by a big step in recent months. By iterating the month-on-month growth rate of inflation, we can get the year-on-year path of overall inflation. The model shows that the year-on-year growth rate of nominal inflation in June 2023 may fall below 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the baseline scenario is that high inflation is resilient, if there is no black swan event, the \"variable scenario\" of a rapid decline in U.S. inflation may become one of the most important macro themes in 2023H1, or it may have an impact on the Fed's monetary policy and the trend of major global asset classes. significant impact. For the Chinese market, from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, the comparative advantages of stocks over other assets are gradually reflected.<b>U.S. inflation turning negative may increase the probability of cashing out this spring's market</b>。</p><p>Fed easing expectations may heat up, overweighting U.S. bonds, gold, and Hong Kong stocks</p><p>Although U.S. inflation has fallen more than expected twice in a row from November to December last year, the Federal Reserve continues to release strong hawkish signals, which may be<b>The results of the Fed's risk-return trade-off between \"over-tightening\" and \"under-tightening\"</b>: The Federal Reserve made a serious mistake in its judgment of inflation in 2021, resulting in insufficient monetary tightening, and U.S. inflation once rose to its highest level in the past 40 years. If the Fed loosens too early before inflation is brought under control, it could make<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The credibility has collapsed, the public no longer believes that the Fed can control inflation, and the macro environment has returned to the \"Great Stagflation\" period in the 1970s, so the cost of \"insufficient tightening\" is high. In contrast, although \"excessive tightening\" may trigger an economic recession, the market has already widely expected the United States to fall into recession in 2023. Recession costs are relatively low compared to prolonged stagflation caused by \"insufficient austerity\". Therefore, the Fed's response to the improvement of inflation is relatively lagging behind, preferring \"excessive tightening\" to \"insufficient tightening.\"</p><p>We believe that if inflation data continues to improve, it will eventually allow the Fed to regain confidence in the downward trend of inflation.<b>Inflation has improved significantly, coupled with the risk of economic recession and the fragility of financial markets, the possibility of the Fed ending the tightening cycle early or starting the easing cycle is not low</b>, and it is not advisable to underestimate the interest rate cuts after rate hike: the Fed scatter plot suggests that the cumulative interest rate cuts in 24 and 25 years exceed 200bp. According to historical experience, the maximum inversion of the 2s10s curve since the beginning of 2022 has reached 84bp, corresponding to a future Fed interest rate cut of about 450bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We predict that the Fed will end its rate hike in 2023Q1, and the end point of rate hike will be in the range of 4.5%-5%; Expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023H2 may increase significantly. If a black swan event causes financial markets to fluctuate, the possibility of an early end to the shrinking balance sheet in 2023 cannot be ruled out. Even if the Fed continues to be hawkish verbally, there is a high probability that market easing expectations will continue to increase. According to the current rate hike path of the Federal Reserve, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields can be introduced at around 3.2%. We maintain our view unchanged and continue to forecast<b>Ten-year US Treasury yields fell to around 3% in 2023Q1</b>。 The downturn in US Treasury yields has improved global liquidity, which is good for the performance of Hong Kong stocks and gold. We recommended in the \"2023 Major Asset Class Outlook: Changing Potentials\" released in November<b>Overweight U.S. Treasuries, Gold and Chinese Stocks</b>, the viewpoint has been initially fulfilled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If China's economy recovers strongly, we need to pay attention to the risk of a \"second peak\" of inflation in Europe and the United States in 2023H2, and stocks will be lowered from overweight to standard weight</p><p>In the \"2022H2 Outlook for Major Asset Classes: The Next Stop of Stagflation Trading\" released in June last year, we proposed the concept of \"redistribution of inflation costs\": in the two decades before the epidemic, the economic growth of major countries can often promote each other. China's economic recovery will help the economic growth of the United States and Europe, and the strong U.S. economy will help the economic growth of China and Europe. According to this line of thinking, China's economic recovery in 2023 will help hedge against the negative impact of the global economic slowdown. However, in the post-epidemic world, the growth interaction of large economies such as China, the United States, Europe and Japan may have undergone profound changes: due to the impact of the epidemic, the global total supply is less than the total demand, and inflation in most economies has reached the highest level in the past few decades. To cool inflation, aggregate demand needs to be destroyed globally to achieve a balance between supply and demand. If China's economy recovers significantly, overseas inflationary pressures may heat up again. At this time, overseas economies need to further tighten monetary policy and reduce aggregate demand, that is, overseas economies bear more costs of controlling inflation, which may suppress overseas stock markets. Due to the strong linkage of global stock markets, overseas market shocks may spread to China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to the post-epidemic recovery experience of other countries/regions, economic recovery often does not happen overnight. China's growth recovery may also be a gradual process. Economic growth in 2023 may be low at first and then high. Since it takes time for growth to improve, it also takes time for growth improvement to be transmitted to upward inflation, and inflationary pressure to be transmitted from domestic to overseas. We believe that China's post-epidemic recovery may not significantly change the overseas inflation path in 2023H1, but inflation uncertainty in 2023H2 will increase. In addition to the risk of a \"second peak\" in inflation, 2023H2 also needs to consider the possibility of overseas recession and the uncertainty of China's policy adjustments. Risk factors have increased significantly, so we recommend<b>Asset allocation focused on offense in the first half of the year, overweighting Hong Kong stocks and A shares; In the second half of the year, it turned to defensive, the allocation was more balanced and stable, and the equity assets were lowered from overweight to standard allocation</b>(\"Outlook for Major Asset Classes in 2023: Extreme Changes\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: If U.S. inflation turns negative month-on-month, how to allocate assets?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: If U.S. inflation turns negative month-on-month, how to allocate assets?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-07 17:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. inflation may turn negative month-on-month, helping the spring market realize</p><p>U.S. December CPI data will be released on January 12 (next Thursday).<b>We predict that headline inflation growth will turn negative month-on-month</b>(CICC's major assets-0.2%, market consensus expectation is 0%, Cleveland Federal Reserve 0.12%, previous value 0.1%). The downward trend in overall inflation was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d88ffddaef7f105d04d72b665d3c470\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the forecast is fulfilled, this month's inflation data will be the third consecutive month that U.S. inflation has fallen beyond expectations, and it will also be the first time that the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has significantly entered a negative range in the three years after the epidemic.</b>It may help boost easing expectations and risk sentiment, and U.S. debt, gold, and growth-style stocks may all have periodic performance opportunities. We forecast core inflation in December to be 0.24% month-on-month (market consensus expectation is 0.3%, Cleveland Fed 0.48%, previous value 0.2%). The month-on-month growth rate of medical services and core commodity inflation remained negative, while the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken, which was the main reason why core inflation remained weak. Other core service sub-items have accelerated recently, which may reflect that the U.S. labor market is still tight. However, other core service sub-items only account for 13% of the overall inflation, making it difficult to change the general downward trend of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa96e751d81b6ca3cb4c941d28acf686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96180cb4f39a397a551bd7f69b1d1c2f\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, the increase in U.S. wages this month was lower than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market is easing, reflecting that labor market and service inflation can cool down in the future. Using the CPI sub-statistical forecast model of CICC's major asset categories (\"Inflation Variables and Asset Changes from a New Perspective\"), we judge that the negative month-on-month growth of overall inflation is not sustainable, and the month-on-month growth rate of overall inflation in the next few months is more likely to be around 0.2%. Despite this, relative to the central 0.8% in 2022, the month-on-month growth rate of inflation has dropped by a big step in recent months. By iterating the month-on-month growth rate of inflation, we can get the year-on-year path of overall inflation. The model shows that the year-on-year growth rate of nominal inflation in June 2023 may fall below 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae6f1e5ece8568c5de816513cae6702\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Although the baseline scenario is that high inflation is resilient, if there is no black swan event, the \"variable scenario\" of a rapid decline in U.S. inflation may become one of the most important macro themes in 2023H1, or it may have an impact on the Fed's monetary policy and the trend of major global asset classes. significant impact. For the Chinese market, from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, the comparative advantages of stocks over other assets are gradually reflected.<b>U.S. inflation turning negative may increase the probability of cashing out this spring's market</b>。</p><p>Fed easing expectations may heat up, overweighting U.S. bonds, gold, and Hong Kong stocks</p><p>Although U.S. inflation has fallen more than expected twice in a row from November to December last year, the Federal Reserve continues to release strong hawkish signals, which may be<b>The results of the Fed's risk-return trade-off between \"over-tightening\" and \"under-tightening\"</b>: The Federal Reserve made a serious mistake in its judgment of inflation in 2021, resulting in insufficient monetary tightening, and U.S. inflation once rose to its highest level in the past 40 years. If the Fed loosens too early before inflation is brought under control, it could make<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The credibility has collapsed, the public no longer believes that the Fed can control inflation, and the macro environment has returned to the \"Great Stagflation\" period in the 1970s, so the cost of \"insufficient tightening\" is high. In contrast, although \"excessive tightening\" may trigger an economic recession, the market has already widely expected the United States to fall into recession in 2023. Recession costs are relatively low compared to prolonged stagflation caused by \"insufficient austerity\". Therefore, the Fed's response to the improvement of inflation is relatively lagging behind, preferring \"excessive tightening\" to \"insufficient tightening.\"</p><p>We believe that if inflation data continues to improve, it will eventually allow the Fed to regain confidence in the downward trend of inflation.<b>Inflation has improved significantly, coupled with the risk of economic recession and the fragility of financial markets, the possibility of the Fed ending the tightening cycle early or starting the easing cycle is not low</b>, and it is not advisable to underestimate the interest rate cuts after rate hike: the Fed scatter plot suggests that the cumulative interest rate cuts in 24 and 25 years exceed 200bp. According to historical experience, the maximum inversion of the 2s10s curve since the beginning of 2022 has reached 84bp, corresponding to a future Fed interest rate cut of about 450bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8c9c3978680642e9a8ec02f34c7fd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>We predict that the Fed will end its rate hike in 2023Q1, and the end point of rate hike will be in the range of 4.5%-5%; Expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023H2 may increase significantly. If a black swan event causes financial markets to fluctuate, the possibility of an early end to the shrinking balance sheet in 2023 cannot be ruled out. Even if the Fed continues to be hawkish verbally, there is a high probability that market easing expectations will continue to increase. According to the current rate hike path of the Federal Reserve, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields can be introduced at around 3.2%. We maintain our view unchanged and continue to forecast<b>Ten-year US Treasury yields fell to around 3% in 2023Q1</b>。 The downturn in US Treasury yields has improved global liquidity, which is good for the performance of Hong Kong stocks and gold. We recommended in the \"2023 Major Asset Class Outlook: Changing Potentials\" released in November<b>Overweight U.S. Treasuries, Gold and Chinese Stocks</b>, the viewpoint has been initially fulfilled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ab064c058661bb64e599c9dad93a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If China's economy recovers strongly, we need to pay attention to the risk of a \"second peak\" of inflation in Europe and the United States in 2023H2, and stocks will be lowered from overweight to standard weight</p><p>In the \"2022H2 Outlook for Major Asset Classes: The Next Stop of Stagflation Trading\" released in June last year, we proposed the concept of \"redistribution of inflation costs\": in the two decades before the epidemic, the economic growth of major countries can often promote each other. China's economic recovery will help the economic growth of the United States and Europe, and the strong U.S. economy will help the economic growth of China and Europe. According to this line of thinking, China's economic recovery in 2023 will help hedge against the negative impact of the global economic slowdown. However, in the post-epidemic world, the growth interaction of large economies such as China, the United States, Europe and Japan may have undergone profound changes: due to the impact of the epidemic, the global total supply is less than the total demand, and inflation in most economies has reached the highest level in the past few decades. To cool inflation, aggregate demand needs to be destroyed globally to achieve a balance between supply and demand. If China's economy recovers significantly, overseas inflationary pressures may heat up again. At this time, overseas economies need to further tighten monetary policy and reduce aggregate demand, that is, overseas economies bear more costs of controlling inflation, which may suppress overseas stock markets. Due to the strong linkage of global stock markets, overseas market shocks may spread to China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c8117b6a1d13f0a7e82b6ab7deeba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f61430ddc9ccd76fe7203edfc2c08a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to the post-epidemic recovery experience of other countries/regions, economic recovery often does not happen overnight. China's growth recovery may also be a gradual process. Economic growth in 2023 may be low at first and then high. Since it takes time for growth to improve, it also takes time for growth improvement to be transmitted to upward inflation, and inflationary pressure to be transmitted from domestic to overseas. We believe that China's post-epidemic recovery may not significantly change the overseas inflation path in 2023H1, but inflation uncertainty in 2023H2 will increase. In addition to the risk of a \"second peak\" in inflation, 2023H2 also needs to consider the possibility of overseas recession and the uncertainty of China's policy adjustments. Risk factors have increased significantly, so we recommend<b>Asset allocation focused on offense in the first half of the year, overweighting Hong Kong stocks and A shares; In the second half of the year, it turned to defensive, the allocation was more balanced and stable, and the equity assets were lowered from overweight to standard allocation</b>(\"Outlook for Major Asset Classes in 2023: Extreme Changes\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f380af86a5efa96fa6d43c914e2380\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/858639.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95788229fc35f46529b4e1955e453669","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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