DavidYu66 personal page - To The Moon

DavidYu66

DavidYu66

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2022-12-05

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2022-12-02

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Trillion apples, "high in debt"

2022-12-02

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Musk's monkeys are driving a brain-computer revolution at the expense of 'banana shakes'

2022-12-01

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Tesla's 'Price' Massacre, EV Players Competing for Moat

2022-12-01

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Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?

2022-12-01

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2022-12-01

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"Survived"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue

2022-11-30

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2022-11-30

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China's sixth richest man, stumbled

2022-11-30

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2022-11-30

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Real Estate Stocks Hit Epic Surge

2022-11-30

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The Mystery of Bank Low Valuations: From the Bank's Own Views

2022-11-30

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Dollar: Will 2023 be more like 1974 or 1981?

2022-11-29

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Can't invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo shares instead

2022-11-29

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2022-11-29

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Musk's latest interview: Young people should learn to think critically

2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

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11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Trillion apples, \"high in debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125738659","media":"市界","summary":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPh","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife technique\" is largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also has to face a higher and higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more accurate \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple has been in constant trouble lately.</p><p>On November 29th, after shelling Apple, Musk sent a poll on his personal social media that \"Apple should announce all censorship measures affecting other customers\". 85% of nearly 2.23 million people voted chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned the 30% commission of Apple's App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media App it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple's headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberk and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's shelling of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprived consumers of choice and unreasonably earned most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>However, similar accusations are obviously not the first time that Apple has faced them. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the unfavored iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden between the hidden financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion USD, total assets of 352.8 billion USD, annual income of 394.3 billion USD and net profit of 99.8 billion USD, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general public perception, and behind this is actually the problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>At the end of September 2022, Apple's gearing ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, Nasdaq, where Apple is located, has an average asset-liability ratio of 52.92% in the top ten listed companies by market value in fiscal year 2021, among which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector, which is not comparable to Apple, followed by the debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical comparison or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than that of many highly leveraged real estate enterprises in China.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt at the end of September 2022 was $120.069 billion, including $98.959 billion in long-term term debt and $11.128 billion in short-term term debt.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pocket is also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash and equivalents and marketable securities totaled USD 169.109 billion, of which cash was USD 23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term marketable securities were USD 120.805 billion and USD 24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, Apple's marketable securities include $23.409 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond, $15.749 billion in non-U.S. government bonds, and $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question is, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The second largest mobile phone shipment, and there is a lot of cash and bonds on the account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the US tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay 35% tax to the US government (before tax reform). However, Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessive tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world has questioned Apple's \"tax avoidance\" for a long time. Apple CEO Cook also \"spoke to the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back against the unreasonableness of the U.S. tax law in his view.</p><p>But the problem has not been resolved. Apple's overseas income still can't return to the United States smoothly. Instead, it is pooled into Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is realized.</p><p>Overseas money can't be returned to the American account, but after Cook took over, Apple needed to spend huge sums of money to buy back the company's shares every year in order to manage the market value. At the same time, it also changed from no dividend in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which required a large amount of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of 553.1 billion US dollars on share buybacks, and since 2011, the cash flow statement shows that the total expenditure of Dividend has reached 131.9 billion US dollars.</p><p>As a result, Apple needs to constantly borrow money for repurchase and dividends while keeping a large amount of cash and securities on its books. Its interest-bearing debt increased greatly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposit and big loan\".</p><p>But that's not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise if the total liabilities increase more than the total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money than it spends every year, the net worth will grow, and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditure with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that Apple's expenditure on dividends and repurchases in most years is greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, Apple's asset growth rate is far slower than that of its liabilities, and its debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets increased by 145.755 billion US dollars, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities increased by 218.632 billion US dollars, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by iPhone to Apple, Cook's accurate \"knife technique\" is largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively radical repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, it has to face higher and higher debt ratio while steadily pushing up its market value.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the safety limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so it has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands while applying a more accurate \"knife technique\" to the iPhone while looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\".</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first generation iPhone in 2007, the global shipments of iPhones have exceeded 2.3 billion units by the end of September 2022, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by Strategy Analytics, a market research organization, although the total sales of smartphones dropped by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with 3.5 million sales. The latest data shows that Apple's monthly market share in China reached an all-time high of 25% in October 2022, and it was the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Before that, the iPhone 14 series was not favored, and even spat a lot.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to iPhone 14 include \"iPhone 14 put Huaqiangbei miserably\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... Fancy headlines almost unilaterally reveal the emotion of bad-singing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also teased after getting the new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but my 'American subsidiary' has not worked well in recent years. This time is a good example. The design of the so-called Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all made the centered small black dot proactive camera, the lifting proactive camera, and the visually perfect under-screen hidden proactive camera that don't affect the aesthetic. Why do you want to do this kind of thing of painting shit on your face first, and then adjusting the color of shit to be similar to foundation?\"</p><p>However, whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skill\", although he broke the standard version of iPhone 14, Cook did successfully attract more demand to Pro models with higher configuration and price-in October, iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro were the first and second best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard version of iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series had been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Visual China</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple has gradually expanded its revenue map in the ecosystem besides hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022, accounting for 7.66% to 19.81% of the total revenue. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, Apple's business has a higher profit margin than hardware in theory.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this idea, whether it is the antipathy of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple tax, or the exhaustion of the aura of the first iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man sat on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. The employee in the store asked him what he was doing, and the man insinuated, \"There are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras on Samsung's side\", while the clerk responded with \"We wait\", sneering at Apple's delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted side by side\" in the advertisement. In the past advertisements, Samsung also teased Apple's abrupt Liu Haiping, buried Apple's defects such as stuck, frequent bugs and non-waterproof, and used plot contrast to highlight the old generation of Apple that couldn't charge and use headphones at the same time, basically counting all Apple's historical defects.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs are history, and the insinuation in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to make iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smart phones with more accurate \"knife technique\" and relatively limited micro-innovation may be one of the important issues that Cook is considering at the moment, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside iPhone is also the top priority for Apple's business empire to continue.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations from the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced eight years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has received more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to emerge in the spotlight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source: Visual China)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is more far-reaching than most people imagine-it launched ARKit, an AR development platform, in WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad. Once Apple's AR/VR is on the market, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR applied to iPad and iPhone Pro has depth of field perception, so besides improving the camera focusing ability of existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging ability necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the current camera function of iPhone to recognize text and search will be greatly released if it is applied to future AR/VR devices.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store, and he also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see the products we bring\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of schemes. One is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; Another high probability is AR glasses whose appearance is closer to ordinary glasses, which corresponds to the virtual experience of reality enhancement, but the time point of launch should be after VR helmet products.</p><p>Under the background that the smart phone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trillion apples, \"high in debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrillion apples, \"high in debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 11:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife technique\" is largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also has to face a higher and higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more accurate \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple has been in constant trouble lately.</p><p>On November 29th, after shelling Apple, Musk sent a poll on his personal social media that \"Apple should announce all censorship measures affecting other customers\". 85% of nearly 2.23 million people voted chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned the 30% commission of Apple's App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media App it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple's headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberk and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's shelling of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprived consumers of choice and unreasonably earned most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>However, similar accusations are obviously not the first time that Apple has faced them. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the unfavored iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden between the hidden financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion USD, total assets of 352.8 billion USD, annual income of 394.3 billion USD and net profit of 99.8 billion USD, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general public perception, and behind this is actually the problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>At the end of September 2022, Apple's gearing ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, Nasdaq, where Apple is located, has an average asset-liability ratio of 52.92% in the top ten listed companies by market value in fiscal year 2021, among which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector, which is not comparable to Apple, followed by the debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical comparison or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than that of many highly leveraged real estate enterprises in China.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt at the end of September 2022 was $120.069 billion, including $98.959 billion in long-term term debt and $11.128 billion in short-term term debt.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pocket is also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash and equivalents and marketable securities totaled USD 169.109 billion, of which cash was USD 23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term marketable securities were USD 120.805 billion and USD 24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, Apple's marketable securities include $23.409 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond, $15.749 billion in non-U.S. government bonds, and $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question is, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The second largest mobile phone shipment, and there is a lot of cash and bonds on the account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the US tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay 35% tax to the US government (before tax reform). However, Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessive tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world has questioned Apple's \"tax avoidance\" for a long time. Apple CEO Cook also \"spoke to the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back against the unreasonableness of the U.S. tax law in his view.</p><p>But the problem has not been resolved. Apple's overseas income still can't return to the United States smoothly. Instead, it is pooled into Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is realized.</p><p>Overseas money can't be returned to the American account, but after Cook took over, Apple needed to spend huge sums of money to buy back the company's shares every year in order to manage the market value. At the same time, it also changed from no dividend in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which required a large amount of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of 553.1 billion US dollars on share buybacks, and since 2011, the cash flow statement shows that the total expenditure of Dividend has reached 131.9 billion US dollars.</p><p>As a result, Apple needs to constantly borrow money for repurchase and dividends while keeping a large amount of cash and securities on its books. Its interest-bearing debt increased greatly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposit and big loan\".</p><p>But that's not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise if the total liabilities increase more than the total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money than it spends every year, the net worth will grow, and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditure with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that Apple's expenditure on dividends and repurchases in most years is greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, Apple's asset growth rate is far slower than that of its liabilities, and its debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets increased by 145.755 billion US dollars, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities increased by 218.632 billion US dollars, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by iPhone to Apple, Cook's accurate \"knife technique\" is largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively radical repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, it has to face higher and higher debt ratio while steadily pushing up its market value.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the safety limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so it has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands while applying a more accurate \"knife technique\" to the iPhone while looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\".</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first generation iPhone in 2007, the global shipments of iPhones have exceeded 2.3 billion units by the end of September 2022, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by Strategy Analytics, a market research organization, although the total sales of smartphones dropped by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with 3.5 million sales. The latest data shows that Apple's monthly market share in China reached an all-time high of 25% in October 2022, and it was the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Before that, the iPhone 14 series was not favored, and even spat a lot.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to iPhone 14 include \"iPhone 14 put Huaqiangbei miserably\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... Fancy headlines almost unilaterally reveal the emotion of bad-singing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also teased after getting the new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but my 'American subsidiary' has not worked well in recent years. This time is a good example. The design of the so-called Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all made the centered small black dot proactive camera, the lifting proactive camera, and the visually perfect under-screen hidden proactive camera that don't affect the aesthetic. Why do you want to do this kind of thing of painting shit on your face first, and then adjusting the color of shit to be similar to foundation?\"</p><p>However, whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skill\", although he broke the standard version of iPhone 14, Cook did successfully attract more demand to Pro models with higher configuration and price-in October, iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro were the first and second best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard version of iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series had been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Visual China</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple has gradually expanded its revenue map in the ecosystem besides hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022, accounting for 7.66% to 19.81% of the total revenue. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, Apple's business has a higher profit margin than hardware in theory.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this idea, whether it is the antipathy of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple tax, or the exhaustion of the aura of the first iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man sat on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. The employee in the store asked him what he was doing, and the man insinuated, \"There are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras on Samsung's side\", while the clerk responded with \"We wait\", sneering at Apple's delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted side by side\" in the advertisement. In the past advertisements, Samsung also teased Apple's abrupt Liu Haiping, buried Apple's defects such as stuck, frequent bugs and non-waterproof, and used plot contrast to highlight the old generation of Apple that couldn't charge and use headphones at the same time, basically counting all Apple's historical defects.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs are history, and the insinuation in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to make iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smart phones with more accurate \"knife technique\" and relatively limited micro-innovation may be one of the important issues that Cook is considering at the moment, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside iPhone is also the top priority for Apple's business empire to continue.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations from the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced eight years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has received more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to emerge in the spotlight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source: Visual China)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is more far-reaching than most people imagine-it launched ARKit, an AR development platform, in WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad. Once Apple's AR/VR is on the market, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR applied to iPad and iPhone Pro has depth of field perception, so besides improving the camera focusing ability of existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging ability necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the current camera function of iPhone to recognize text and search will be greatly released if it is applied to future AR/VR devices.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store, and he also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see the products we bring\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of schemes. One is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; Another high probability is AR glasses whose appearance is closer to ordinary glasses, which corresponds to the virtual experience of reality enhancement, but the time point of launch should be after VR helmet products.</p><p>Under the background that the smart phone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd73a3a7ee0028660eb13b44cbd5058","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US 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Plus"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125738659","content_text":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。苹果最近可以说是麻烦不断。11月29日，马斯克在炮轰苹果后，于个人社交媒体上发出一项关于“苹果应该公布所有影响其他客户的审查措施”的投票，近223万人次投票中有85%选择了“Yes”。在此之前，马斯克对苹果App Store高达30%的抽成提出了质疑，并表示苹果曾发出威胁，称可能将自己刚刚收购的社交媒体应用从App Store下架。短暂的闹剧，最终以库克带着马斯克参观苹果总部且达成和解落下帷幕。但很快脸书创始人扎克伯克和流媒体音乐服务Spotify CEO丹尼尔·埃克就接过了马斯克炮轰苹果的接力棒，公开表示苹果App Store剥夺了消费者的选择，不合理地获得生态系统的大多数利润。但类似的指控显然不是苹果第一次面对，回到当下，苹果更为真切和近距离的“焦虑”来自不被看好的iPhone 14系列，而更为深远的“焦虑”，则藏于隐秘的财报数据之间。高企的负债率作为一家总市值超过2万亿美元，总资产规模3528亿美元，年收入3943亿美元，净利润998亿美元的全球科技巨头，苹果的负债率正在偏离大众的普遍认知，而这背后其实是与“避税”和经营策略相关的难题。截至2022年9月末，苹果资产负债率达到85.64%，是其历史上最高水平。相比较而言，苹果所在的纳斯达克，市值前十的上市公司2021财年资产负债率平均值为52.92%，其中苹果以82.03%的负债率位列第二，仅次于百事的82.52%；同期纽交所市值前十的上市公司资产负债率平均值为55.71%，其中负债率达到92.14%的摩根大通属于银行板块，与苹果并无可比性，其次就是负债率达到65.33%的沃尔玛。不论纵向比较还是横向比较，苹果的负债率都不算低，单看这一指标甚至比国内许多高杠杆发展的房地产企业更为激进。极高的负债率背后，苹果截至2022年9月末的带息债务为1200.69亿美元，其中长期定期债务989.59亿美元，短期定期债务111.28亿美元。与此同时，苹果的腰包也是相当鼓——同一时间点其账面现金及等价物、有价证券合计1691.09亿美元，其中现金236.46亿美元，长期和短期有价证券分别为1208.05亿美元和246.58亿美元。具体来看，苹果持有的有价证券中，包括234.09亿美元的美国国债，157.49亿美元的非美国政府债券，以及794.5亿美元的公司债券。（来源：公告）那么问题来了，为什么苹果在全球范围内智能手机出货量第二，且有大把现金和债券放在账上，却还要借那么多钱呢？事实上苹果一直受困于“避税”的难题，因为美国税法规定，苹果的境外所得如果要汇回美国，需要向美国政府缴纳35%的税（税改前），但苹果方面对此一直是抗拒的，认为过高的税率并不合理。外界对于苹果“避税”的质疑长久地存在着，苹果CEO库克还曾在听证会上“舌战参议员”，回击在其看来美国税法的不合理之处。但问题并未得到解决。苹果在海外的收益还是不能顺畅地回到美国，而是经过一系列避税操作被汇集到爱尔兰，再通过苹果和爱尔兰政府的一系列特殊协议，实现超低税率的纳税。海外的钱回不到美国账户，但库克接任后苹果为了进行市值管理，每年都需要斥巨资回购公司股票，同时也从乔布斯时代的不分红转变为高比例分红，这些都需要大笔的现金。市界统计，2013年到2022年，苹果在股票回购上共花费了5531亿美元，2011年以来现金流量表显示的股息支出合计达到1319亿美元。这就导致苹果在账面保有大量现金和证券的同时，需要不断借钱用于回购和分红，其带息债务在2013至2017年间大幅提升，最终形成如今“大存大贷”的局面。但这还不是苹果负债率升高的根本原因。从逻辑上看，资产负债率=总负债/总资产，只有当总负债增长幅度大于总资产增幅时，资产负债率才会上升，那么什么时候会出现这种情况？简单来说就是花的比赚的多的时候。具体来说，在负债保持在一个相对稳定水平时，只要苹果每年赚的钱比花的钱多，那么净资产就会增长，整体负债率也会得到控制甚至有所下降。但比较苹果分红和回购支出与每年经营活动和投资活动净额之和，会发现大多数年份苹果用于分红和回购的支出，都大于经营活动和投资活动产生的现金净额。这就意味着苹果赚的钱常常不够花。这种状态的不断积累下，苹果的资产增长速度远不及负债的增长速度，负债率也最终爬升至85.5%的高水平。2011年库克正式接过苹果CEO之位，2013年以来一直到2022年，苹果总资产增加了1457.55亿美元，增幅70.41%，但负债增加了2186.32亿美元，增幅达到261.99%。从这个角度看，除了充分挖掘iPhone给苹果带来的商业价值，库克的精准“刀法”很大程度上也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是其在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。更为急迫的问题在于，想要回到“赚的比花的多”这样的安全界限内，苹果当前的杀手锏依然是iPhone，于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。iPhone的最后一波红利？自2007年第一代iPhone面市以来，截至2022年9月末iPhone在全球的出货量已累计超过23亿台，为苹果创收约10.84万亿元。市场调研机构Strategy Analytics 公布的数据显示，双十一期间智能手机总销量虽然同比下降35%，但iPhone却以350万台的销量摘下桂冠。最新数据显示，2022年10月苹果在国内的月度市场份额达到25%的历史最高水平，且连续两个月是国内第一大手机品牌厂商。在此之前，iPhone 14系列并不被看好，甚至吐槽颇多。自10月份发布以来，与iPhone 14相关的报道包括《iPhone 14 把华强北坑惨了》《iPhone 14“收割”黄牛》《挤牙膏让iPhone 14吃到苦头？》……花式标题几乎一边倒地透露唱衰苹果新机的情绪，从配置到设计都被认为有着明显的痛点。“老果粉”罗永浩也在入手新机后调侃道：“苹果过去一直是真机比渲染图好看，但这些年我那个‘美国子公司’也不太灵了，这次就是很好的一个例子，所谓灵动岛的设计并不像宣传视频里那么漂亮。安卓阵营把不影响美感的居中小黑点前摄，升降式前摄，以及视觉完美的屏下隐藏式前摄全都搞出来了，为什么要做这种先在脸上涂屎，再把屎的颜色调整得跟粉底差不多的事儿？”但不管是不被看好的灵动岛，还是库克的“刀法”，虽然玩坏了iPhone 14标准版，但库克确实成功将更多需求吸引至配置和售价更高的Pro机型上——10月份iPhone 14 Pro Max和iPhone 14 Pro分别是国内畅销机型中的第一和第二，但此前iPhone 12和iPhone 13系列标准版一直销量更高。（图片来源：视觉中国）除此之外，苹果也在iPhone、Mac等硬件产品外逐渐扩大自己在生态中的收入版图——其来自于iTunes、软件和服务的收入从2012财年的760亿元增至2022财年5463亿元，占总收入比重也从7.66%提高至19.81%，参照小米互联网服务业务70%以上的毛利率，苹果这部分业务理论上也有着相比硬件更高的利润空间。这些都是苹果“开源”的方式。在这一思路下，不管是马斯克、扎克伯格等科技巨头对苹果税的反感，还是在库克商业刀法下初代iPhone光环的消磨殆尽，事实上都是苹果需要承受的代价。在三星近日发布的一则手机广告里，苹果再次成为被嘲讽的对象——一个男人坐在一堵墙头，背后是一个长得像苹果零售店的铺面，店里员工问他在做什么，男人含沙射影地说道，“在三星那边，有可折叠的手机和史诗般的相机”，店员则回应以“我们等待”，暗嘲苹果迟迟未推出折叠屏手机。这并非双方第一次在广告里“侧面交锋”。过往的广告中，三星还调戏过苹果突兀的刘海屏，埋汰过苹果的卡顿、bug频发和不防水等缺陷，还用情节对比凸显无法同时充电和使用耳机的旧代苹果，基本上把苹果历来的缺陷都数落了一遍。好在如果回头看，其中大部分bug都成了历史，三星广告中的暗讽某种程度上也成为督促苹果改进的一种戏剧性力量。在接下来几年内，如何以更加精准的“刀法”和相对有限的微创新，让iPhone 及其生态在智能手机这个逐渐萎缩的行业里吃尽最后一波红利，或许是库克眼下考虑的重要问题之一，但与此同时在iPhone之外找到“下一个时代的iPhone”，也是苹果商业帝国得以延续的重中之重。外界最期待的呈现主要包括苹果智能汽车和苹果AR/VR眼镜，前者经历8年的“难产”目前依然距离落地遥遥无期，后者则在近期迎来越来越密集的报道，在万众瞩目中呼之欲出。（图片来源：视觉中国）事实上苹果在AR领域的布局比大多数人想象的都要深远——其于2017年WWDC推出了AR开发平台ARKit，开发人员可以使用这套工具为iPhone和iPad创建增强现实应用程序，而苹果的AR/VR一旦面市，ARKit具备的能力和对应的应用程序，大部分也都可以呈现在新的载体上。比如应用于iPad、iPhone Pro的LiDAR激光雷达，因为具备景深感知能力，所以除了为现有产品提高摄像对焦能力外，更像是在为未来AR/VR设备所必需的空间测距能力打好基础。也比如iPhone目前具备的摄像头识别文字并搜索的功能，如果应用于未来的AR/VR设备，能够施展的空间也会大大得到释放。2022年WWDC之后，库克曾在采访中表述，AR领域是苹果每天关注的重点，App Store中已经有超过1400个ARKit APP，还表示“请继续关注，你将会看到我们所带来的产品”。从已有消息来看，苹果的AR团队大概率手握两套方案，一个是瞄准VR的头盔，对应的是沉浸式的虚拟体验，售价可能达到2000美元；另一个则大概率是外观更贴近普通眼镜的AR眼镜，对应的是现实加强的虚拟体验，但推出的时间点应该会在VR头盔产品之后。在智能手机市场增长不再的背景下，苹果酝酿中的AR/VR眼镜能否接住iPhone即将交出的接力棒，或许就是苹果未来几年的焦虑所在。值得思考的问题是，在苹果的负债率逼近90%的当下，未来可供库克腾挪的空间还剩多少？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965201228,"gmtCreate":1669952070464,"gmtModify":1676538277341,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965201228","repostId":"1137562033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137562033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669950387,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137562033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 11:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Musk's monkeys are driving a brain-computer revolution at the expense of 'banana shakes'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137562033","media":"硅星人","summary":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The brain-computer interface revolution came too quickly.</p><p>Musk revealed at a Neuralink communication meeting in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, called the N1, can start human testing within as soon as six months.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all the work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about six months, you can see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Banana Shake, Cyberpunk's First Productivity</p><p>Looking at the whole press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so soon...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>You may know that Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with names, and there are countless reserves without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink cannot force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink has already understood one truth as early as the beginning of the in-vivo experiment: a strong twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced and reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana shakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a reinforcement mechanism: Whenever monkeys participated in the current experiment and completed an operation, they were given banana shakes...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the more you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism for stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see below, these monkeys are experimenting while sipping a drink from a tube in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: happily doing experiments, happily drinking milkshakes...</b></p><p>This feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>Let's first look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it looks like monkeys can type, they don't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press the next key has been designed by the experimental staff a long time ago, and it will be marked in yellow in a conspicuous way on the virtual keyboard of the MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey \"moves\" to the next key to be pressed through the mind brain control cursor and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Get some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with having monkeys type with a cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to manipulate commonly used electronic devices, including mobile phones, through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, this company's monkey army, driven by banana milkshakes, is doing all kinds of training work, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and Drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"It was still a virtual keyboard at the beginning. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, and combine the graphics in the picture with the signal pattern obtained by training to accurately judge what words the monkey is writing on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid the monkey will really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves the staff of Neuralink a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\", and then put the charging pad in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This way, whenever the monkey wants a banana smoothie, it will run over and suck on the pipe.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be directed at the charging pad, drinking a drink and charging at the same time.</b></p><p>This design, brain circuit is really very interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this conference generally gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → I tried many ways to solve it → Hey, in the end, I have to banana method → No way banana it really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to achieve cyberpunk, banana milkshake became the primary productivity...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to turning back to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : Concord Food</p><p>From banana shakes, to the plasticity of monkey brains</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, test tools, etc.</p><p>In the following example, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one just mentioned, that is, to help (paralyzed) people get motor functions.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: helping those visually impaired people who have been living in the dark to regain the light through external devices + brain-computer interface.</b></p><p>The problem for most visually impaired people is in the eyeball, and their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to directly transmit signals into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain their light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the cranium in the visual cortex of monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>However, this time the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals to control peripherals, it is completely reversed, taking visual content from the outside, compiling it into raw cranial nerve signals, and transmitting it back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not humans, and there is no way to tell the experimenters whether they have seen or not, and what they have seen. Therefore, Neuralink has designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a commonly used method in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) The artificial intervention signal input by the brain-computer interface stimulates the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results match, use a banana shake for incentives.</b></p><p>As shown below: The green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards a position where no white dots appear, precisely because of the signal of artificial intervention received through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball is not highly consistent with the artificial signal.</p><p><b>What's interesting, however, is that as the tests get longer and the number of times increases, the monkeys get more skilled and the degree of compliance increases.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a kind of plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons inside the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity. Through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>If the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will be higher, and the number of pixels will be further increased from a single vector to lines, surfaces, shapes and colors...</b></p><p><b>That way, wouldn't it be possible for those who were blind to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to cross.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface in the near future (note that this is not a real picture, but just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthetic kit, images are acquired through a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>It can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware pieces the protagonist gets is the visual prosthetic Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronics and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>righteous<b>Body is not as cool as it is in the game yet.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk declares that prosthetics can 'restore' vision — perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthetic body is not the vision that you and I have. It is more like dotted spots of light, perhaps able to be combined to create a simple display effect, like the old-fashioned bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, bringing the light back to the blind remains a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as a culture of many excellent literary and artistic works, also sounds the alarm for the future of humanity too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks can't be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up its efforts to improve technical security, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Techniques have been developed to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells grown in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialists in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that implants electrodes directly outside the meninges without pioneering on the meninges (dura) (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, which is easy to bring infection dangers, and it is very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>upgradability is one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized cut in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face tissue problems caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the device. Upgrading hardware is difficult, so the hardware must guarantee the ability to upgrade software to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to do it in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe in the future, Neuralink can become a cyber technology giant like Arasaka...</p><p>\"I was laughing because Elon Musk made a move through NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Liked it and then very seriously thought, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was choking someone. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Web</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gxr","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's monkeys are driving a brain-computer revolution at the expense of 'banana shakes'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's monkeys are driving a brain-computer revolution at the expense of 'banana shakes'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">硅星人</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The brain-computer interface revolution came too quickly.</p><p>Musk revealed at a Neuralink communication meeting in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, called the N1, can start human testing within as soon as six months.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all the work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about six months, you can see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Banana Shake, Cyberpunk's First Productivity</p><p>Looking at the whole press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so soon...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>You may know that Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with names, and there are countless reserves without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink cannot force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink has already understood one truth as early as the beginning of the in-vivo experiment: a strong twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced and reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana shakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a reinforcement mechanism: Whenever monkeys participated in the current experiment and completed an operation, they were given banana shakes...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the more you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism for stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see below, these monkeys are experimenting while sipping a drink from a tube in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: happily doing experiments, happily drinking milkshakes...</b></p><p>This feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>Let's first look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it looks like monkeys can type, they don't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press the next key has been designed by the experimental staff a long time ago, and it will be marked in yellow in a conspicuous way on the virtual keyboard of the MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey \"moves\" to the next key to be pressed through the mind brain control cursor and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Get some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with having monkeys type with a cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to manipulate commonly used electronic devices, including mobile phones, through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, this company's monkey army, driven by banana milkshakes, is doing all kinds of training work, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and Drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"It was still a virtual keyboard at the beginning. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, and combine the graphics in the picture with the signal pattern obtained by training to accurately judge what words the monkey is writing on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid the monkey will really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves the staff of Neuralink a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\", and then put the charging pad in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This way, whenever the monkey wants a banana smoothie, it will run over and suck on the pipe.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be directed at the charging pad, drinking a drink and charging at the same time.</b></p><p>This design, brain circuit is really very interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this conference generally gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → I tried many ways to solve it → Hey, in the end, I have to banana method → No way banana it really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to achieve cyberpunk, banana milkshake became the primary productivity...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to turning back to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : Concord Food</p><p>From banana shakes, to the plasticity of monkey brains</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, test tools, etc.</p><p>In the following example, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one just mentioned, that is, to help (paralyzed) people get motor functions.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: helping those visually impaired people who have been living in the dark to regain the light through external devices + brain-computer interface.</b></p><p>The problem for most visually impaired people is in the eyeball, and their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to directly transmit signals into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain their light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the cranium in the visual cortex of monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>However, this time the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals to control peripherals, it is completely reversed, taking visual content from the outside, compiling it into raw cranial nerve signals, and transmitting it back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not humans, and there is no way to tell the experimenters whether they have seen or not, and what they have seen. Therefore, Neuralink has designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a commonly used method in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) The artificial intervention signal input by the brain-computer interface stimulates the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results match, use a banana shake for incentives.</b></p><p>As shown below: The green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards a position where no white dots appear, precisely because of the signal of artificial intervention received through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball is not highly consistent with the artificial signal.</p><p><b>What's interesting, however, is that as the tests get longer and the number of times increases, the monkeys get more skilled and the degree of compliance increases.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a kind of plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons inside the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity. Through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>If the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will be higher, and the number of pixels will be further increased from a single vector to lines, surfaces, shapes and colors...</b></p><p><b>That way, wouldn't it be possible for those who were blind to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to cross.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface in the near future (note that this is not a real picture, but just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthetic kit, images are acquired through a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>It can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware pieces the protagonist gets is the visual prosthetic Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronics and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>righteous<b>Body is not as cool as it is in the game yet.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk declares that prosthetics can 'restore' vision — perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthetic body is not the vision that you and I have. It is more like dotted spots of light, perhaps able to be combined to create a simple display effect, like the old-fashioned bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, bringing the light back to the blind remains a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as a culture of many excellent literary and artistic works, also sounds the alarm for the future of humanity too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks can't be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up its efforts to improve technical security, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Techniques have been developed to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells grown in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialists in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that implants electrodes directly outside the meninges without pioneering on the meninges (dura) (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, which is easy to bring infection dangers, and it is very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>upgradability is one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized cut in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face tissue problems caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the device. Upgrading hardware is difficult, so the hardware must guarantee the ability to upgrade software to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to do it in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe in the future, Neuralink can become a cyber technology giant like Arasaka...</p><p>\"I was laughing because Elon Musk made a move through NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Liked it and then very seriously thought, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was choking someone. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Web</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">硅星人</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a370dedf78ec8709f7980cc3b5d33703","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137562033","content_text":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。马斯克在硅谷举行的Neuralink沟通会上透露：首款脑机接口产品，名为N1，最快6个月内就可以启动人类测试。“为了我们的首次临床测试，我们正在非常努力地加紧各项工作准备，”马斯克轻描淡写地表示。“我们绝大部分的文书资料已经提交到了 FDA。我们估计大约再过6个月时间，大家就可以看到 Neuralink 装到人的脑袋上了。”Neuralink 拟推出的 N1 脑机接口（内部构造）   图片来源：Neuralink香蕉奶昔，赛博朋克的第一生产力整场发布会看下来，硅星人有一个最核心的感受：如果没有香蕉奶昔（banana smoothie），这场脑机接口的革命，恐怕不会来得这么快……为什么这么说呢？大家可能知道Neuralink这家公司过去以来一直是用猴子和猪等动物进行实验的。有名有姓的猴子，就有至少8只，没名字的预备役更是数不胜数。但是根据规定，Neuralink不能强迫它们参与配合实验……更何况，早在启动活体实验的初期Neuralink就已经明白一个道理：强扭的瓜不甜。让这些猴子做实验哪怕它们有一点被迫、不情愿，对实验效果都会有影响。于是Neuralink 开发出了一套“自愿参与”原则的激励方案：只要来做实验，就有无限量的香蕉奶昔供应！图片来源：Neuralink具体来说，就像条件反射那样，Neuralink 的饲养工作人员参与设计了一套强化机制：每当猴子参与了当前的实验，完成了一次操作，就会得到香蕉奶昔……这样，越做实验，喝的越爽。久而久之，就形成了刺激强化的反馈机制。下图你可以看到，这些猴子一边做着实验，一边从面前的管子里嘬着饮料。简直可以说是：高高兴兴做实验，开开心心喝奶昔……这样的反馈机制，在 Neuralink 最近两年的研发工作中，扮演了相当重要的角色。首先来看下面这个脑控光标的实验：图片来源：Neuralink（虽然看起来猴子都会打字了，然而并非如此，猴子怎么可能懂英语呢？）下一个键要按什么，实验工作人员早就设计好了，会在猴子面前 MacBook 的虚拟键盘上，会以黄色显眼的方式注明。而在激励机制的作用下，只要猴子通过意念脑控光标“移动”到下一个要按的键上，并发出“按下”的信号，管子里就会流出香甜可口的香蕉奶昔……在对于甜品的渴望驱使下，猴子打出了这么一句话：搞点夜点心切切吧 (can i please have snacks)……图片来源：Neuralink但 Neuralink 并不满足于让猴子用光标打字。毕竟它的阶段性目标之一，是让（瘫痪）的人们可以通过脑机信号来操控包括手机在内的常用电子设备。所以，这家公司的猴子大军，正在香蕉奶昔的驱动下，做着各种各样的训练工作，包括并不限于：点按和拖拽滑动输入手写手势识别等等……图片来源：Neuralink以手写为例：“一开始还是虚拟键盘。现在我们已经可以直接用脑机界面来读取信号，结合画面中的图形，和训练得到的信号模式，来精准地判断猴子在屏幕上写的是什么字”，一位 Neuralink 技术专家透露。这样下去，猴子恐怕真要“学会”写字、拼词了？以及，香蕉奶昔还能刺激猴子自己去给脑机接口充电！这样简直是给 Neuralink 的工作人员，省了大麻烦了……具体机制是这样设计的：他们将一棵树做成了“奶茶店”，然后把充电板放在了装饰的树杈里：图片来源：Neuralink这样，只要猴子想喝香蕉奶昔了，就会跑过去嘬管子。结果它的脑袋会正好对准充电板，一边喝饮料，一边充电。这设计，脑回路实在是很有意思！图片来源：Neuralink这场发布会的各嘉宾发言，总的来说给硅星人一个感觉，就是：我们在实验中遇到了一个技术问题 → 想了很多办法都解决不了 → 哎最后还得香蕉大法 → 没办法香蕉它真的管用啊！没想到实现赛博朋克，香蕉奶昔竟成了第一生产力……（期待回头 Neuralink 实现产品多元化，推出自主品牌的香蕉奶昔……）图片来源：Concord Food从香蕉奶昔，到猴脑的可塑性当然，除了香蕉之外，Neuralink也在用一些更加“正经”和更“高科技”的刺激方式，来训练出更厉害的猴子，好让它们转而更好地训练 Neuralink 开发下一代脑机接口产品需要的各种信号解码器、算法模型、测试工具等等。而在下面这个例子中，Neuralink 就是利用了更复杂的刺激方法。这家公司有两个阶段性目标，刚才提到了一个，也即帮助（瘫痪）人士获得运动功能。而另一个阶段性目标，则是视觉义体：通过外部设备+脑机接口的方式，帮助那些一直生活在黑暗中的视障人士，重获光明。绝大多数视障者，问题都出在眼球里，他们的视神经，大脑中的视觉皮层，很有可能仍然是完好的。于是 Neuralink 希望能够用脑机接口的方式，通过外置传感器（摄像头）来将信号直接传入视觉皮层，从而让失明者重获光明。为了实现这个目标，Neuralink 在猴子的猴脑视觉皮层部位开了颅，装了脑机接口进去。图片来源：Neuralink然而这次的工作更为复杂：不再是读取脑信号控制外设这种简单的逻辑，而是完全反过来，从外部获取的视觉内容，将它编译为原始的脑神经信号，传回到大脑里。猴子不是人，没有办法告诉实验人员自己看到了还是没看到、看到了什么东西。于是，Neuralink 又设计了一套新的刺激机制（逆相关reverse correlation，神经科学常用的方法）：图片来源：Neuralink1）用脑机接口输入的人工干预信号，刺激猴子的眼球进行移动（比如可以简单理解为）；2）用外置的眼球追踪设备，验证实际的眼球移动矢量，是否与人工信号相符；3）当结果相符的时候，使用香蕉奶昔进行激励。如下图所示：绿色线代表眼球的移动路径，闪现的白点作为对照。你会看到，猴子的眼球突然朝着没有出现白点的位置移动，正是因为通过脑机接口收到了人工干预的信号。最一开始，眼球的移动矢量和人工信号的相符的程度并不高。然而有趣的是，随着测试时间变长，次数增加，猴子越做越熟练，符合程度越来越高。图片来源：Neuralink大脑是指一种具有可塑性的组织，简单来说也即大脑内部的突触、神经元之间的连接可以由于学习和经验的影响建立新的连接，从而影响个体的行为。Neuralink 团队正是寄希望于这种可塑性，通过不断的训练来让猴子在外界信号的辅助下，获得一种非原生的低维视觉。而如果将这种技术的应用规模进一步扩容，让信号的复杂程度变高，从单一的矢量，升级为线、面、形状、颜色，让像素数量进一步增加……那样，不就能够让那些失明的人，重获视觉了吗？想法是伟大的，前景是乐观的。然而挑战仍然重重，还有很多技术门槛需要跨越。Neuralink 提供了一张模拟图。它展示了在不远的未来，通过Neuralink脑机接口的视觉义体技术，大致能够获得的视觉（注意这并不是真实图片，只是模拟的效果）。在一个理想的视觉义体套件中，通过一个安装在眼部高度的摄像机获取图像，传入手机进行信号处理，再通过脑机接口传输到大脑中的视觉皮层。图片来源：Neuralink这不禁令我想起了《赛博朋克2077》。在游戏中，主角拿到的头两件赛博义体（cyberware）之一，就是视觉义体 Kiroshi Optics。有了它，主角在正常视觉的基础上，还获得了扫描电子器件并对其进行黑客攻击的能力……图片来源：TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix回到现实世界，视觉义体暂时还没有在游戏里那么酷。麻省理工科技评论的一位生物科技作者写道指出，“马斯克宣称义体能够‘恢复’视觉——也许在很久以后的未来才能实现。能够通过义体产生的视觉并不是你和我所拥有的视觉。它更像是点状的光斑，也许能够通过组合的方式来形成一种简单的显示效果，就像老式的灯泡记分牌那样。”图片来源：@antonioregalado图片来源：MERIT即便如此，让失明者重获光明，仍然是一项有着重大意义的技术使命。当然，赛博朋克作为一种文化的诸多优秀文艺作品，也为人类过于依赖科技的未来敲响警钟。尽管Neuralink掀起的这场脑机接口技术革命令人兴奋神往，它的诸多风险仍然不可小觑。在过去一年时间里，Neuralink 也在加紧提高技术安全性，更重要的是确保使用者的生命安全。该公司的努力包括：开发了在实验室环境下，用于测试工作的，对人脑组织进行替代的技术，比如使用培养皿培植的皮质细胞进行电极测试（下图）。“最终目标是在未来产品研发和测试中，降低甚至完全消除对活体动物和临床试验者的需要，”一位 Neuralink 专家表示。图片来源：Neuralink开发了无需在脑膜 (dura) 上开创，直接在脑膜外进行电极植入的机器人手术技术（在脑膜上开创会导致恢复过程中生成大量组织，覆盖包裹住接口设备，容易带来感染隐患，并且非常不便于后期设备维护）图片来源：Neuralink将向上兼容能力（可升级性 upgradability）作为技术研发的核心原则之一。正如前一条，在颅骨上开一个硬币大小的口子，就算尽力控制创口，仍然会面临后期愈合而产生的组织的问题，对设备的后期移除带来巨大困难。升级硬件困难，所以硬件必须最大限度保证软件升级的能力。“毕竟没人想像每年换一台 iPhone 那样换脑机接口，最好的就是一步到位，”马斯克说到。现实世界中，这场赛博朋克的革命的第一把火，看来也已经点燃了。没准将来的 Neuralink，能够成为像“荒坂” (Arasaka) 那样的赛博格技术巨头……“我笑了，因为伊隆·马斯克通过NeuraLink.™直接将一个表情包发送到我的前颅皮层。哦，我的天啊，这太棒了。我眨了两次眼睛，用NeuraLike™赞了它，然后非常认真地想：“谢谢先生！请发送比特币。”我睁开眼睛，突然发现天已经黑了，而我正在掐着一个人的脖子。”图片来源：网络","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965312897,"gmtCreate":1669893633119,"gmtModify":1676538264756,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965312897","repostId":"1190139235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190139235","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"直抵核心。做最具穿透力、洞察力的商业观察，深度影响未来。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"豹变","id":"1099700147","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524ae85df6244d238314a4bd6c916bb7"},"pubTimestamp":1669889842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190139235?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 18:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's 'Price' Massacre, EV Players Competing for Moat","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190139235","media":"豹变","summary":"随着10月底特斯拉降价，电动汽车厂之间的厮杀大幕拉起。未来什么样的企业能够胜出？我们借助巴菲特的护城河思想，对这轮竞争做出解读。商业竞争中如何逼退对手占住市场份额？有一种著名的产品定价方法提供了思路—","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With the end of October<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Price reduction, the curtain of fighting between electric car factories is pulled up. What kind of enterprises can win in the future? With the help of Buffett's moat thought, we interpret this round of competition. How to force rivals to occupy market share in commercial competition? There is a well-known product pricing method that provides ideas – penetration pricing.</p><p>The core of penetration pricing method is low price. If the quality is similar to that of rivals, it is easier for low-priced products to gain high market share, and high share will dilute the production cost and build momentum for another subsequent price reduction.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>When they entered China, they used this method. Which makes latecomers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">Pepsi</a>Very uncomfortable, afraid to set a high price, and marketing and promotion \"medicine can't stop\", Pepsi has been unable to make a profit for many years after entering China.</p><p>Recently, in the automotive space, Tesla has also played a game of penetration pricing with other rivals. First, on October 24th, Model 3 dropped by 14,000 yuan-18,000 yuan, and Model Y dropped by 20,000 yuan-37,000 yuan. On November 8th, Tesla China released another poster saying that from November 8th (inclusive) to November 30th (inclusive), purchase the auto insurance portfolio of existing cars and cooperative insurance institutions and complete the car pick-up on schedule, and the final payment can be reduced by 8,000 yuan; From December 1st (inclusive) to December 31st (inclusive), the final payment can be reduced by 4,000 yuan.</p><p><b>According to some media reports, after two promotions, Tesla's order increase is still less than expected, and new price reductions will be introduced before the end of the year. Tesla responded that the \"price reduction\" was false news.</b></p><p>In the eyes of many people, Tesla's price reduction is the starting point for the significant intensification of competition among OEMs. Some people even believe that \"any competition without price reduction as the main theme is hypocritical\".</p><p>However, low price is only a sub-strategy of competition. Whether an enterprise can win the competition in the end is the result of the harmony of many factors.</p><p>In this article, we use Buffett's moat idea to analyze Tesla,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>As well as the new forces in domestic car manufacturing, do a quantitative analysis of the competitive advantages of the automobile industry, and see how the competitiveness of related companies is under the intensification of competition.</p><p><b>The moat in the river and lake of electric vehicles</b></p><p>Many people know that the concept of moat comes from Buffett, the stock god. \"Quality products, excellent management, these are good, but they are not called moats,\" Buffett said, even saying harshly: \"<b>The moat is more critical than the CEO. The economic moat is a structural advantage</b>。”</p><p>Buffett's words were confused and confused many people. In fact, the so-called moat, translated into vernacular, is a barrier that \"opponents can't get in and customers can't get out\". If there is no moat, the business growth of the enterprise will enter the dilemma of the so-called \"pirate ship business\", that is, the business continues to develop, but the customers are constantly lost, and it is impossible to form a stable positive superposition structure, which makes it difficult to gather sand into a tower.</p><p>Since the moat is so useful, what does it really look like in reality?</p><p>Pat Dorsey, head of equity research at Morningstar, suggested in Buffett's Moat, which almost everyone in value investors has a copy, that there are four types of moats: intangible assets (including brands, patents, and statutory licenses), switching costs (the difficulty of migrating to other products), cost advantages, and network effects (the more participants, the greater the product value).</p><p>The above moat concepts are only qualitative discussions. In concrete analysis, it is necessary to add quantitative elements to avoid the so-called vagueness of subjective judgment.</p><p>In Buffett's Moat, Pat Dorsey talks about the key point to check to know whether a company has a moat is that the company's past return on capital-superior return on capital, means that the enterprise may have a moat, while poor return on capital means the lack of competitive advantage, unless there is a substantial change in the company's business.</p><p>What are the key indicators of return on capital? The authors enumerate three similar indicators, ROA (return on total assets), ROE (return on net assets), ROIC (return on invested capital). In general, each metric can provide us with the same information, but in a slightly different way.</p><p>Here, we take the ROE (return on net assets) recommended by Buffett as a representative indicator to take a look at the moat performance of core electric vehicle companies.</p><p>The so-called ROE, simply understood, is the net profit that shareholders can obtain in a certain business cycle for every yuan of capital invested. For example, shareholders invested 1 million yuan, and the company got a net profit of 200,000 yuan that year, and the ROE was 20%.</p><p>What is the right amount of ROE? According to the author's overall experience and Buffett's argument, we can take 15% as the critical value to measure competitiveness-as long as the return on shareholders' equity of a company reaches or exceeds 15% for a long time, then it is more likely to have a moat than those companies below this critical value.</p><p>Corresponding to the EV industry, in terms of ROE alone, Tesla has reached a horrific 25% as of the third quarter, and it seems that other companies still need to work.</p><p>Among domestic car companies,<b>BYD momentum is worth watching, its ROE as of the third quarter has reached 5.74%, if it can reach this level every quarter in the future, then the overall ROE of more than 15% is not an issue.</b></p><p>In contrast, new forces such as \"Wei Xiaoli Zero\" have not built a moat in the ROE dimension.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa3e7bccd065c37aae64e5b1eeb354a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ROE Comparison of Core Electric Vehicle Enterprises/Leopard Change</p><p>Of course, Dorsey has repeatedly emphasized that even if the ROE has exceeded 15%, the enterprise may not have a moat. If the initial competition is not fierce, the enterprise may also get a high ROE.</p><p>For example, some people think that Tesla's current high profitability and the possibility of price reduction after the current order is less than expected are due to the fact that the competition was not fierce before.</p><p>This involves a question. Do the above electric vehicle enterprises that seem to have built a moat really have the elements of a moat? Can companies that haven't built a moat yet see the shadow of the moat?</p><p><b>Who can laugh all the time?</b></p><p>For electric vehicles, we will observe the brand moat and cost advantage moat that are more in line with the industry to see whether it is because the competition is not fierce enough or whether related enterprises do have moat factors.</p><p>Let's look at the brand moat first.</p><p>There are two reasons why brands can form a moat. On the one hand, some brands have deeply accumulated users' understanding, trust and preferences, making consumers willing to pay a high premium. For example, Pat Dorsey gives an example in his book,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIF\">Tiffany</a>Diamonds are nearly 50% more expensive than other brands; And Bayer Pharma's aspirin, although chemically identical to other aspirins, costs twice as much as regular aspirin. Another example is Maotai in China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000423\">Dong-E Ejiao</a>Wait for brands, you can always sell at a high premium.</p><p>On the other hand, some companies' brands can reduce the cost of searching for unique value for customers. For example, as long as it is a car made by Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, most consumers will think that it is a long-lasting luxury car.</p><p>Dorsey especially emphasized that companies with well-known brands may not have moats. The difference between well-known brands and moat brands is whether moat brands can really attract consumers to spend money, that is, whether they really affect consumers' purchasing decisions.</p><p>Therefore, for electric vehicle companies, we will observe whether the products of this company have higher pricing (bicycle price), sales volume, and lower sales expense ratio on average per vehicle. The implication behind this is that enterprises with brand moats can sell more and more expensive cars without too much research and development expenses.</p><p>Let's look at the cost advantage moat.</p><p>If a company's cost is lower than that of its competitors for a long time, it will form a huge advantage. Either the pricing is the same as the rival, and you can have a higher gross profit margin; Either when a price war starts, it can drag all its competitors to a loss position, and still keep profitable.</p><p>Therefore, for EV companies, we will look at whether businesses have higher gross margins and lower sales overhead ratios, which indicates that at low cost advantages, the same price can enjoy higher gross margins, and at low prices, the business can still be profitable.</p><p>With the above foreshadowing, let's take a look at Tesla, the benchmark leader:</p><p>From the perspective of bicycle price, sales volume, gross profit margin and sales management expense ratio, Tesla has become the industry leader with a bicycle price of 371,600 yuan, a delivery volume of 254,700 vehicles, only 5.6% sales management expenses and a gross profit margin of 27.9% under the background of the gradual entry of major models of various electric vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Although Tesla is negatively involved in the Chinese market, and frequent traffic accidents have also caused word-of-mouth polarization, from these data alone, Tesla has shown an obvious brand and low-cost scale effect moat.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64277b8061d66b0e53a5e637f5b31f28\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In contrast, other enterprises have their own shortcomings.</p><p><b>BYD's delivery volume has surpassed Tesla's, and its sales and management expenses are the same as Tesla's, but the price of a single bike and gross profit margin of a car are significantly lower than Tesla's.</b>It shows that the company has a certain cost advantage moat, but the brand moat is not strong. According to public information, at present, BYD will form five brand matrix combinations, including Dynasty, Ocean, Tengshi, Looking Up, and professional and personalized brand-new brands. Among them, looking up at the brand and positioning the million-level high-end market will be released in the first quarter of next year. At that time, we can observe its product sales.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The price of a single bike is at the same level as Tesla, which is in the mid-to-high end. However, in the second quarter, the delivery volume of only 25,000 units, the gross profit margin of 16.7%, and the sales and management expense ratio of up to 20.9% are obviously different from Tesla.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>The high-end brand image needs continuous marketing promotion, and the brand moat is not wide for the time being.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Similar to Nio, the price of bicycles is slightly lower than that of Nio, and the delivery volume is slightly higher than that of Nio. Slightly better than NIO, the gross profit margin of 21.18% in the second quarter exceeds that of Nio, while the sales and management expense ratio of nearly 16% is lower than that of Nio, which shows that it has a certain low-cost scale effect. However, this is also easy to understand. As of the second quarter of this year, there is only ONE explosive model Ideal ONE on sale, which makes the scale effect reflect.</p><p>As for XPeng and Leapmotor, except that the sales volume is at the same level as that of Nio and Ideal, it does not have obvious advantages compared with its rivals in terms of bicycle price, gross profit margin and sales management expense ratio.</p><p><b>Big Disruption, Needs New Corners</b></p><p>Understanding the above status quo, we can't help but ask, is it that brands with obvious moat advantages will be used once and for all, while companies without moats will never play?</p><p>Theoretically, as long as it is not an obvious technological change or business model change (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile phones replace feature phones, online e-commerce impacts offline retail), and enterprises with moats can basically sit firmly in Diaoyutai. Even if it is mediocre management, enterprises can still grab a lot of profits. That's why Buffett would say, \"The moat is more critical than the CEO.\" For ordinary companies, survival may not be a big problem, but it is more difficult to build the same moat.</p><p>What can really achieve deep reshuffle must come from new subversion.</p><p>What is this disruption? In the field of electric vehicles, it is likely to be a driverless breakthrough.</p><p>Different from the so-called intelligent assisted driving studied by various car factories at present, unmanned driving can really make the car run by itself, and the responsible car factory bears the burden in case of an accident.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d7d08b2e47e07162b14e39fc77364dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Driverless driving can bring a new round of industrial disruption.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Lawrence Burns, a consultant on the driverless car project, made a calculation:</p><p>If driverless technology matures, vehicles shared through driverless driving, because there is no driver, can be made smaller and improve travel efficiency. In particular, using electric vehicle technology can reduce the cost per mile to $0.20 without compromising the travel experience and efficiency, compared to $1.50 per mile now for private vehicles, a decrease of 86%.</p><p>Behind this string of calculations, we can see a drastic industrial change: if unmanned driving is truly popular, ordinary people may not need to buy a car, and the overall scale of the automobile market will be greatly reduced. In the future, the travel service platform will dominate.</p><p>Further, for OEMs, if they have no driverless ability, they are likely to become mediocre companies that provide low-margin vehicles for autonomous driving platforms in the future, and are subject to others everywhere.</p><p><b>But unfortunately, it is very difficult to be realistic driverless</b>。</p><p>Specifically, AI can't handle accidents.</p><p>Google encountered the following scenario when training for autonomous driving: a disabled person in an electric wheelchair chasing a duck in the middle of the road. The duck runs in circles, and she chases in circles. In this case, it is difficult for machines to accurately predict the action route of such people at once. As for the defects of the algorithm and the problems caused by the insecurity of machinery and equipment, it is also difficult for high-order autonomous driving to land.</p><p>So we'll see that at the end of October, Tesla boss Elon Musk acknowledged that Tesla's Full Self-Driving System (FSD) isn't ready to really drive itself without anyone monitoring.</p><p>Abroad,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Its autonomous driving company Mobileye has finally listed on Nasdaq, but its valuation has shrunk significantly; Argo AI, a star self-driving enterprise once valued at $7 billion, shut down operations. In China, Pony Zhixing, founded by talented programmers such as Lou Tiancheng, was also exposed to optimization and adjustment.</p><p>Therefore, it is uncertain when a new round of reshuffle will arrive.</p><p>What's the way out for the latecomers before the big reshuffle?<b>For the latecomers, on the one hand, they continue to make efforts in products and technologies, tire up higher brand potential energy and narrow the gap with the leader; On the other hand, it is to differentiate from Tesla, BYD and other giants and seek a new ecological niche</b>。 For example, the battery exchange service provided by Nio is ideal in the early stage, and the product is stuck in the focus strategy of dad's car.</p><p>However, what needs to be understood is that small factories have worked hard, and big factories have not relaxed. For example, Tesla's R&D expenses in the second quarter of this year are almost the sum of Wei Xiaoli, and Tesla's continuous investment in unmanned driving leads the world. The differentiation of small factories only leaves time for digging the moat, because most of the differentiation can be imitated. For example, when the market finds that the ideal extended-range daddy car sells well, you can immediately see Wenjie and other brands imitating it.</p><p>So,<b>If we look at the current competitive landscape from the perspective of the moat, there is a high probability that Tesla and BYD will still make huge profits in the future, and other domestic characteristic car companies will drink soup.</b></p><p>Compared with competitors, enterprises with moats are more likely to climb from difficulties. Dorsey once gave an example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>Its products once lagged behind consumer taste demand and caused consumer service levels to slip to an intolerable level, but this enduring brand still quickly got out of trouble.</p><p>For many brands in the electric vehicle arena, as Tesla's price reduction forces competition to intensify, the time and space left for everyone to maneuver are more limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's 'Price' Massacre, EV Players Competing for Moat</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's 'Price' Massacre, EV Players Competing for Moat\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1099700147\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/524ae85df6244d238314a4bd6c916bb7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">豹变 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-01 18:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With the end of October<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Price reduction, the curtain of fighting between electric car factories is pulled up. What kind of enterprises can win in the future? With the help of Buffett's moat thought, we interpret this round of competition. How to force rivals to occupy market share in commercial competition? There is a well-known product pricing method that provides ideas – penetration pricing.</p><p>The core of penetration pricing method is low price. If the quality is similar to that of rivals, it is easier for low-priced products to gain high market share, and high share will dilute the production cost and build momentum for another subsequent price reduction.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>When they entered China, they used this method. Which makes latecomers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">Pepsi</a>Very uncomfortable, afraid to set a high price, and marketing and promotion \"medicine can't stop\", Pepsi has been unable to make a profit for many years after entering China.</p><p>Recently, in the automotive space, Tesla has also played a game of penetration pricing with other rivals. First, on October 24th, Model 3 dropped by 14,000 yuan-18,000 yuan, and Model Y dropped by 20,000 yuan-37,000 yuan. On November 8th, Tesla China released another poster saying that from November 8th (inclusive) to November 30th (inclusive), purchase the auto insurance portfolio of existing cars and cooperative insurance institutions and complete the car pick-up on schedule, and the final payment can be reduced by 8,000 yuan; From December 1st (inclusive) to December 31st (inclusive), the final payment can be reduced by 4,000 yuan.</p><p><b>According to some media reports, after two promotions, Tesla's order increase is still less than expected, and new price reductions will be introduced before the end of the year. Tesla responded that the \"price reduction\" was false news.</b></p><p>In the eyes of many people, Tesla's price reduction is the starting point for the significant intensification of competition among OEMs. Some people even believe that \"any competition without price reduction as the main theme is hypocritical\".</p><p>However, low price is only a sub-strategy of competition. Whether an enterprise can win the competition in the end is the result of the harmony of many factors.</p><p>In this article, we use Buffett's moat idea to analyze Tesla,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>As well as the new forces in domestic car manufacturing, do a quantitative analysis of the competitive advantages of the automobile industry, and see how the competitiveness of related companies is under the intensification of competition.</p><p><b>The moat in the river and lake of electric vehicles</b></p><p>Many people know that the concept of moat comes from Buffett, the stock god. \"Quality products, excellent management, these are good, but they are not called moats,\" Buffett said, even saying harshly: \"<b>The moat is more critical than the CEO. The economic moat is a structural advantage</b>。”</p><p>Buffett's words were confused and confused many people. In fact, the so-called moat, translated into vernacular, is a barrier that \"opponents can't get in and customers can't get out\". If there is no moat, the business growth of the enterprise will enter the dilemma of the so-called \"pirate ship business\", that is, the business continues to develop, but the customers are constantly lost, and it is impossible to form a stable positive superposition structure, which makes it difficult to gather sand into a tower.</p><p>Since the moat is so useful, what does it really look like in reality?</p><p>Pat Dorsey, head of equity research at Morningstar, suggested in Buffett's Moat, which almost everyone in value investors has a copy, that there are four types of moats: intangible assets (including brands, patents, and statutory licenses), switching costs (the difficulty of migrating to other products), cost advantages, and network effects (the more participants, the greater the product value).</p><p>The above moat concepts are only qualitative discussions. In concrete analysis, it is necessary to add quantitative elements to avoid the so-called vagueness of subjective judgment.</p><p>In Buffett's Moat, Pat Dorsey talks about the key point to check to know whether a company has a moat is that the company's past return on capital-superior return on capital, means that the enterprise may have a moat, while poor return on capital means the lack of competitive advantage, unless there is a substantial change in the company's business.</p><p>What are the key indicators of return on capital? The authors enumerate three similar indicators, ROA (return on total assets), ROE (return on net assets), ROIC (return on invested capital). In general, each metric can provide us with the same information, but in a slightly different way.</p><p>Here, we take the ROE (return on net assets) recommended by Buffett as a representative indicator to take a look at the moat performance of core electric vehicle companies.</p><p>The so-called ROE, simply understood, is the net profit that shareholders can obtain in a certain business cycle for every yuan of capital invested. For example, shareholders invested 1 million yuan, and the company got a net profit of 200,000 yuan that year, and the ROE was 20%.</p><p>What is the right amount of ROE? According to the author's overall experience and Buffett's argument, we can take 15% as the critical value to measure competitiveness-as long as the return on shareholders' equity of a company reaches or exceeds 15% for a long time, then it is more likely to have a moat than those companies below this critical value.</p><p>Corresponding to the EV industry, in terms of ROE alone, Tesla has reached a horrific 25% as of the third quarter, and it seems that other companies still need to work.</p><p>Among domestic car companies,<b>BYD momentum is worth watching, its ROE as of the third quarter has reached 5.74%, if it can reach this level every quarter in the future, then the overall ROE of more than 15% is not an issue.</b></p><p>In contrast, new forces such as \"Wei Xiaoli Zero\" have not built a moat in the ROE dimension.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa3e7bccd065c37aae64e5b1eeb354a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ROE Comparison of Core Electric Vehicle Enterprises/Leopard Change</p><p>Of course, Dorsey has repeatedly emphasized that even if the ROE has exceeded 15%, the enterprise may not have a moat. If the initial competition is not fierce, the enterprise may also get a high ROE.</p><p>For example, some people think that Tesla's current high profitability and the possibility of price reduction after the current order is less than expected are due to the fact that the competition was not fierce before.</p><p>This involves a question. Do the above electric vehicle enterprises that seem to have built a moat really have the elements of a moat? Can companies that haven't built a moat yet see the shadow of the moat?</p><p><b>Who can laugh all the time?</b></p><p>For electric vehicles, we will observe the brand moat and cost advantage moat that are more in line with the industry to see whether it is because the competition is not fierce enough or whether related enterprises do have moat factors.</p><p>Let's look at the brand moat first.</p><p>There are two reasons why brands can form a moat. On the one hand, some brands have deeply accumulated users' understanding, trust and preferences, making consumers willing to pay a high premium. For example, Pat Dorsey gives an example in his book,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIF\">Tiffany</a>Diamonds are nearly 50% more expensive than other brands; And Bayer Pharma's aspirin, although chemically identical to other aspirins, costs twice as much as regular aspirin. Another example is Maotai in China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000423\">Dong-E Ejiao</a>Wait for brands, you can always sell at a high premium.</p><p>On the other hand, some companies' brands can reduce the cost of searching for unique value for customers. For example, as long as it is a car made by Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, most consumers will think that it is a long-lasting luxury car.</p><p>Dorsey especially emphasized that companies with well-known brands may not have moats. The difference between well-known brands and moat brands is whether moat brands can really attract consumers to spend money, that is, whether they really affect consumers' purchasing decisions.</p><p>Therefore, for electric vehicle companies, we will observe whether the products of this company have higher pricing (bicycle price), sales volume, and lower sales expense ratio on average per vehicle. The implication behind this is that enterprises with brand moats can sell more and more expensive cars without too much research and development expenses.</p><p>Let's look at the cost advantage moat.</p><p>If a company's cost is lower than that of its competitors for a long time, it will form a huge advantage. Either the pricing is the same as the rival, and you can have a higher gross profit margin; Either when a price war starts, it can drag all its competitors to a loss position, and still keep profitable.</p><p>Therefore, for EV companies, we will look at whether businesses have higher gross margins and lower sales overhead ratios, which indicates that at low cost advantages, the same price can enjoy higher gross margins, and at low prices, the business can still be profitable.</p><p>With the above foreshadowing, let's take a look at Tesla, the benchmark leader:</p><p>From the perspective of bicycle price, sales volume, gross profit margin and sales management expense ratio, Tesla has become the industry leader with a bicycle price of 371,600 yuan, a delivery volume of 254,700 vehicles, only 5.6% sales management expenses and a gross profit margin of 27.9% under the background of the gradual entry of major models of various electric vehicle companies.</p><p><b>Although Tesla is negatively involved in the Chinese market, and frequent traffic accidents have also caused word-of-mouth polarization, from these data alone, Tesla has shown an obvious brand and low-cost scale effect moat.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64277b8061d66b0e53a5e637f5b31f28\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In contrast, other enterprises have their own shortcomings.</p><p><b>BYD's delivery volume has surpassed Tesla's, and its sales and management expenses are the same as Tesla's, but the price of a single bike and gross profit margin of a car are significantly lower than Tesla's.</b>It shows that the company has a certain cost advantage moat, but the brand moat is not strong. According to public information, at present, BYD will form five brand matrix combinations, including Dynasty, Ocean, Tengshi, Looking Up, and professional and personalized brand-new brands. Among them, looking up at the brand and positioning the million-level high-end market will be released in the first quarter of next year. At that time, we can observe its product sales.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The price of a single bike is at the same level as Tesla, which is in the mid-to-high end. However, in the second quarter, the delivery volume of only 25,000 units, the gross profit margin of 16.7%, and the sales and management expense ratio of up to 20.9% are obviously different from Tesla.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>The high-end brand image needs continuous marketing promotion, and the brand moat is not wide for the time being.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Similar to Nio, the price of bicycles is slightly lower than that of Nio, and the delivery volume is slightly higher than that of Nio. Slightly better than NIO, the gross profit margin of 21.18% in the second quarter exceeds that of Nio, while the sales and management expense ratio of nearly 16% is lower than that of Nio, which shows that it has a certain low-cost scale effect. However, this is also easy to understand. As of the second quarter of this year, there is only ONE explosive model Ideal ONE on sale, which makes the scale effect reflect.</p><p>As for XPeng and Leapmotor, except that the sales volume is at the same level as that of Nio and Ideal, it does not have obvious advantages compared with its rivals in terms of bicycle price, gross profit margin and sales management expense ratio.</p><p><b>Big Disruption, Needs New Corners</b></p><p>Understanding the above status quo, we can't help but ask, is it that brands with obvious moat advantages will be used once and for all, while companies without moats will never play?</p><p>Theoretically, as long as it is not an obvious technological change or business model change (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile phones replace feature phones, online e-commerce impacts offline retail), and enterprises with moats can basically sit firmly in Diaoyutai. Even if it is mediocre management, enterprises can still grab a lot of profits. That's why Buffett would say, \"The moat is more critical than the CEO.\" For ordinary companies, survival may not be a big problem, but it is more difficult to build the same moat.</p><p>What can really achieve deep reshuffle must come from new subversion.</p><p>What is this disruption? In the field of electric vehicles, it is likely to be a driverless breakthrough.</p><p>Different from the so-called intelligent assisted driving studied by various car factories at present, unmanned driving can really make the car run by itself, and the responsible car factory bears the burden in case of an accident.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d7d08b2e47e07162b14e39fc77364dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Driverless driving can bring a new round of industrial disruption.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Lawrence Burns, a consultant on the driverless car project, made a calculation:</p><p>If driverless technology matures, vehicles shared through driverless driving, because there is no driver, can be made smaller and improve travel efficiency. In particular, using electric vehicle technology can reduce the cost per mile to $0.20 without compromising the travel experience and efficiency, compared to $1.50 per mile now for private vehicles, a decrease of 86%.</p><p>Behind this string of calculations, we can see a drastic industrial change: if unmanned driving is truly popular, ordinary people may not need to buy a car, and the overall scale of the automobile market will be greatly reduced. In the future, the travel service platform will dominate.</p><p>Further, for OEMs, if they have no driverless ability, they are likely to become mediocre companies that provide low-margin vehicles for autonomous driving platforms in the future, and are subject to others everywhere.</p><p><b>But unfortunately, it is very difficult to be realistic driverless</b>。</p><p>Specifically, AI can't handle accidents.</p><p>Google encountered the following scenario when training for autonomous driving: a disabled person in an electric wheelchair chasing a duck in the middle of the road. The duck runs in circles, and she chases in circles. In this case, it is difficult for machines to accurately predict the action route of such people at once. As for the defects of the algorithm and the problems caused by the insecurity of machinery and equipment, it is also difficult for high-order autonomous driving to land.</p><p>So we'll see that at the end of October, Tesla boss Elon Musk acknowledged that Tesla's Full Self-Driving System (FSD) isn't ready to really drive itself without anyone monitoring.</p><p>Abroad,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Its autonomous driving company Mobileye has finally listed on Nasdaq, but its valuation has shrunk significantly; Argo AI, a star self-driving enterprise once valued at $7 billion, shut down operations. In China, Pony Zhixing, founded by talented programmers such as Lou Tiancheng, was also exposed to optimization and adjustment.</p><p>Therefore, it is uncertain when a new round of reshuffle will arrive.</p><p>What's the way out for the latecomers before the big reshuffle?<b>For the latecomers, on the one hand, they continue to make efforts in products and technologies, tire up higher brand potential energy and narrow the gap with the leader; On the other hand, it is to differentiate from Tesla, BYD and other giants and seek a new ecological niche</b>。 For example, the battery exchange service provided by Nio is ideal in the early stage, and the product is stuck in the focus strategy of dad's car.</p><p>However, what needs to be understood is that small factories have worked hard, and big factories have not relaxed. For example, Tesla's R&D expenses in the second quarter of this year are almost the sum of Wei Xiaoli, and Tesla's continuous investment in unmanned driving leads the world. The differentiation of small factories only leaves time for digging the moat, because most of the differentiation can be imitated. For example, when the market finds that the ideal extended-range daddy car sells well, you can immediately see Wenjie and other brands imitating it.</p><p>So,<b>If we look at the current competitive landscape from the perspective of the moat, there is a high probability that Tesla and BYD will still make huge profits in the future, and other domestic characteristic car companies will drink soup.</b></p><p>Compared with competitors, enterprises with moats are more likely to climb from difficulties. Dorsey once gave an example<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>Its products once lagged behind consumer taste demand and caused consumer service levels to slip to an intolerable level, but this enduring brand still quickly got out of trouble.</p><p>For many brands in the electric vehicle arena, as Tesla's price reduction forces competition to intensify, the time and space left for everyone to maneuver are more limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb1e682def9ecda4654e742f531ebeb","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO 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Y直降2.0万元-3.7万元。到了11月8日，特斯拉中国又发布海报称，11月8日（含）至11月30日（含），购买现车及合作保险机构车险组合并按期完成提车，尾款可减8000元；12月1日（含）至12月31日（含），尾款可减4000元。有媒体报道，在经历过两次促销后，特斯拉的订单增量仍不及预期，年底前会推出新的降价手段。特斯拉回应称，“降价”属于不实消息。在不少人看来，特斯拉降价，是整车厂竞争显著加剧的起点，甚至有观点认为，“任何不以降价为主旋律的竞争，都是虚伪的”。不过，低价只是竞争的一个子策略，一家企业最终能否竞争胜利，是多因素因缘和合的结果。本文我们借助巴菲特的护城河思想，对特斯拉、比亚迪，以及国内造车新势力，做个汽车行业竞争优势的量化分析，看看在竞争加剧下，相关公司的竞争力到底如何？电动车江湖里的护城河很多人都知道，护城河的概念来自股神巴菲特。巴菲特说：“优质的产品、卓越的管理，这些固然不错，但是它们不叫护城河。”他甚至还放了一句狠话：“护城河比CEO还要关键，经济护城河，是一种结构性的优势。”巴菲特这段话云里雾里，曾把不少人绕晕。事实上，所谓护城河，翻译成大白话就是“对手进不来，客户出不去”的壁垒。如果没有护城河，企业的业务增长，会进入一种所谓“贼船型业务”的困境，即业务不断发展，但是客户不断流失，无法形成一个稳定的正向叠加结构，难以聚沙成塔。既然护城河这么有用，那在现实中，它到底是何种样貌？美国晨星公司的股票研究业务主管帕特·多尔西，在那本价值投资者几乎人手一本的《巴菲特的护城河》中提出，护城河有四种：无形资产（包括品牌、专利、法定许可）、转换成本（迁移到其他产品的难度）、成本优势、网络效应（参与者越多，产品价值越大）。以上几个护城河概念，仅仅是定性讨论。具体分析时，我们有必要再加入定量元素，以规避所谓主观判断的模糊。在《巴菲特的护城河》中，帕特·多尔西谈到，要了解一家公司是否拥有护城河，核心要检查的关键点是，公司以往的资本回报率——超群的资本回报率，意味着企业可能有护城河，而糟糕的资本回报率意味着竞争优势的匮乏，除非公司业务出现实质性的变化。资本回报率的关键指标是什么？作者列举了三个类似的指标，ROA（总资产回报率）、ROE（净资产收益率）、ROIC（投资资本回报率）。总的来说，每个指标都可以为我们提供相同的信息，只不过方式略有不同而已。这里，我们以巴菲特推崇的ROE（净资产收益率）做代表指标，看看核心电动车企的护城河表现。所谓ROE，简单理解就是股东每投入一元资本，在某个营业周期能获取的净利润。比如股东投入100万元，当年公司获得20万元净利润，ROE就是20%。ROE多少合适？根据作者总体经验判断，以及巴菲特的论述，我们可以把15%作为衡量竞争能力的临界值——只要企业的股东权益回报率长期达到或超过15%，那么，它就更有可能比那些低于该临界值的企业拥有护城河。对应到电动汽车行业，仅从ROE来看，特斯拉截止三季度已经达到了恐怖的25%，其他企业似乎仍需努力。国内车企中，比亚迪势头值得关注，其截至第三季度ROE已经达到了5.74%，如果未来每个季度都能达到这个水平，那么总体ROE超过15%不是问题。相比之下，“蔚小理零”等新势力，在ROE维度来看，则没有构建起护城河。核心电动车企ROE对比/豹变当然，多尔西曾反复强调，哪怕ROE已经超过15%，企业也可能并未有护城河，如果初期竞争不激烈，企业也有可能获得高ROE。比如有观点就认为，特斯拉目前的高盈利能力，以及当下订单不及预期后可能降价，原因正是此前竞争并不激烈。而这就涉及到一个问题，以上看似构建起护城河的电动车企业，是否真的具备了护城河要素？还没构建护城河的公司，能否看到护城河的影子？谁能一直笑？对于电动汽车，我们将以更契合产业的品牌护城河、成本优势护城河来做观察，看看到底是因为竞争不够激烈，还是相关企业确实有护城河因子。先来看品牌护城河。品牌之所以能形成护城河有两个原因。一方面，某些品牌深度积累了用户的了解、信任和偏好，使得消费者愿意付高溢价。比如帕特·多尔西就在书中举例，蒂芙尼钻石要比其他品牌价格贵近50%；而拜耳制药的阿司匹林，尽管在化学成分上与其他阿司匹林完全相同，价格是普通阿司匹林的2倍。再比如国内的茅台、东阿阿胶等品牌，总能卖出高溢价。另一方面，某些公司的品牌，能减少客户对独特价值的搜索成本。比如只要是奔驰母公司戴姆勒生产的汽车，大多消费者都会认为这是一部经久耐用的豪华型汽车。多尔西特别强调，有知名品牌的公司，未必有护城河。知名品牌和护城河品牌的区别是，护城河品牌能否真正吸引消费者花钱，即是否真正影响了消费者购买决策。因此，对于电动汽车公司，我们将观察这家企业的产品，是不是平均每台车有更高的定价（单车价格）、销量，和更低的销售费用率，其背后含义是，有品牌护城河的企业，不用太多研发费用，就能卖更多、更贵的车。再来看成本优势护城河。如果一家公司，成本长期低于竞争对手，会形成巨大优势。要么定价和对手相同，就能拥有更高的毛利率；要么开打价格战时，能把所有的竞争对手都拖到亏损的境地，自己依旧保持盈利。因此，对于电动汽车公司，我们将观察企业是否有更高的毛利率和更低的销售管理费用率，这表明低成本优势下，同样的价格可以享受更高的毛利率，以及低价格下，企业仍能盈利。有了上述铺垫，我们来看看标杆龙头特斯拉：从单车价格、销售量、毛利率、销售管理费用率来看，在各路电动车企主要车型逐步进场的背景下，特斯拉凭借37.16万元的单车价格、25.47万辆的汽车交付量、仅仅5.6%的销售管理费用、27.9%的毛利率，成为行业龙头。尽管特斯拉在中国市场负面缠身，频发的交通事故也引发口碑两极化，但是单纯从这些数据来看，特斯拉展现了明显的品牌和低成本规模效应护城河。相比之下，其他企业各有不足。比亚迪交付量已经超过特斯拉，销售管理费用和特斯拉持平，但是单车价格和汽车毛利率明显低于特斯拉。显示公司具有一定的成本优势护城河，但品牌护城河还不强。根据公开信息，目前比亚迪将形成五个品牌矩阵组合，包括王朝、海洋、腾势、仰望，以及专业个性化全新品牌。其中，仰望品牌，定位百万级高端市场，将在明年一季度发布。届时我们可以观察其产品销量。蔚来单车价格和特斯拉同一水平，位属中高端，但第二季度仅仅2.5万台的交付量、16.7%毛利率、高达20.9%的销售管理费用率，和特斯拉差距明显，显示蔚来的高端品牌形象，需要持续的营销推动，品牌护城河暂时并不宽。理想汽车和蔚来类似，单车价格略低于蔚来、交付量略高于蔚来，比蔚来稍好的是第二季度21.18%的毛利率超过蔚来、而接近16%的销售管理费用率低于蔚来，显示其具有一定的低成本规模效应。不过这也很好理解，截至今年二季度，理想在售车型只有一个爆款车型理想ONE，这使得规模效应得以体现。至于小鹏和零跑，除了销量和蔚来、理想处于同一水平，但无论是单车价格，还是毛利率、销售管理费用率，和对手相比都不具有明显优势。大颠覆，需要新弯道了解以上现状，我们不禁要问，是不是有明显护城河优势的品牌，就一劳永逸，没护城河的公司就一直没戏？理论上，只要不是明显的技术变革或者商业模式变革（比如智能手机替代功能手机、线上电商冲击线下零售），有护城河的企业，基本都能稳坐钓鱼台。哪怕是庸才管理，企业仍然能攫取大把利润。这也是为什么巴菲特会说：“护城河比CEO还要关键。”而普通公司，谋生存可能问题不大，但建立起同样的护城河则比较难。真正能实现深度洗牌的，必须来自新的颠覆。这个颠覆是什么？在电动汽车领域，很可能是无人驾驶的突破。不同于当下各车厂研究的所谓智能辅助驾驶，无人驾驶可以真正做到让汽车自己运行，出事故时责任车厂背负。无人驾驶能带来新一轮产业颠覆。谷歌无人驾驶汽车项目的顾问劳伦斯·伯恩斯做了一个测算：如果无人驾驶技术成熟，通过无人驾驶进行共享的车辆，因为没有司机，可以做得更小，提高出行效率。尤其是，利用电动车技术，在不影响出行体验和效率的情况下，可以将每英里的成本降到0.2美元，而现在私人车辆的每英里成本是1.5美元，下降了86%。这串计算背后，可以看到一场剧烈的产业变革：无人驾驶如果真正普及，普通人未必需要买一辆汽车，汽车市场整体规模会大比例削减，未来占据主导的，将是出行服务平台。更进一步看，对于整车厂而言，如果没有无人驾驶能力，未来很有可能沦为为自动驾驶平台提供低毛利车辆的平庸公司，处处受制于人。但很遗憾，要现实无人驾驶非常难。具体来说，人工智能处理不了意外。谷歌在训练自动驾驶时曾遇到过下面一个场景：一个残疾人坐着电动轮椅，在路中间追逐一只鸭子。鸭子绕圈跑，她也绕着圈追。而这种情况，机器很难一下子就准确预测这类人的行动路线。至于算法的缺陷，和机器设备不安全带来的问题，也让高阶自动驾驶，迟迟难以落地。所以我们会看到，在10月底，特斯拉老板埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)承认，特斯拉的全自动驾驶系统(FSD)尚未准备就绪，还无法在没有人监控的情况下真正的自动驾驶。在国外，英特尔旗下的自动驾驶公司Mobileye终于在纳斯达克上市，但估值大幅缩水；估值曾达70亿美元的明星自动驾驶企业Argo AI关闭运营。在国内，楼天城等天才程序员创办的小马智行也被曝优化、调整。所以，新一轮大洗牌的局面何时到来，暂不确定。大洗牌来临前，后进者的出路是什么？对于后来者而言，一方面是在产品和技术中持续发力，累起更高的品牌势能，缩小和龙头的差距；另一方面，则是和特斯拉、比亚迪等巨头做出差异化，寻求一个新生态位。比如蔚来提供的换电服务，理想在初期，把产品卡位在奶爸车的聚焦战略。但需要了解的是，小厂努力，大厂也并没松懈，比如特斯拉今年第二季度的研发费用，几乎是蔚小理之和，且特斯拉在无人驾驶的持续投入全球领先。而小厂做出差异化，也只是为挖掘护城河留出时间，因为差异化大多都能模仿。比如当市场发现理想的增程式奶爸车销售良好时，马上就能看到问界等一众品牌模仿。所以，如果从护城河的角度看当下的竞争格局，未来大概率仍将是特斯拉、比亚迪双强攫取丰厚利润，国内其他特色车企喝汤的局面。相较于竞争者，有护城河的企业更容易从困难中爬起。多尔西曾举例麦当劳，它的产品曾一度落后于消费者的品位需求，并导致消费服务水平滑落到不可容忍的地步，但是这个经久不衰的品牌依然很快摆脱困境。对于电动汽车江湖的诸多品牌而言，随着特斯拉降价迫使竞争加剧，留给大家的时间、可腾挪的空间也更加有限了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965304064,"gmtCreate":1669889630458,"gmtModify":1676538263794,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965304064","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Fierce storms are brewing. The era of cheap money is fast becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve began their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Right now, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released recently by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the total global debt was $290 trillion in the third quarter. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>Economic and financial market risks piled up as central banks continued their rate hike and borrowing costs continued to rise for households, businesses and governments.</p><p>From the government's perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow a lot of dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden on most families, so this is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>At worst,<b>Some components of the global financial system could collapse.</b>From the mass bankruptcy of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries escaped the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been mounting, and a large portion of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to households already in debt.</b></p><p>Such a \"ticking time bomb\" no longer exists after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but it exists in other countries.</p><p>Such as Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household indebtedness in the world, with a 180% household debt-to-income ratio. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund as some borrowers had begun cutting off payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgages in the second quarter of this year were in a vulnerable financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached six times or more.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). Debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far above that figure in the Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian countries, and if central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this percentage will move beyond 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, said recently that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand would also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, the debt of households with mortgage loans accounting for more than 40% reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about RMB 9.8989 trillion) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters and maintaining a growth trend for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. The recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debts are mainly household debts.</p><p><b>More businesses will be insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF, businesses (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments as the biggest borrowers in the cheap money era, but unlike governments, they can't solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has had the biggest impact on some so-called \"zombie companies\", which generally only make just enough money to pay off their debts. In some ways, roughly one in five publicly traded companies already meet this definition when interest rates are low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", while companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>Global defaults on junk bonds will nearly double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the $6.7 trillion high-rated U.S. corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. SMEs, which tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. They are likely to be forced to lay off staff as the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment in the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that in the lifetime of these deals, Federal Funds rate would be closer to 5%.</b><b>Minutes from the November FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released last week, showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden levers\" in the nonbank sector that could disrupt the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar has made dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnam and Indonesia real estate bond prices fell sharply; The default of Legoland in South Korea in October triggered a panic selling in the credit market, which also fueled fears of default by housing companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies do not typically face the same direct challenges as households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>In Britain, for example, former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cuts nearly collapsed the country's Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the British financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government will still face the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>The Italian public debt problem is almost the most troublesome of the advanced economies.</b>By the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt to GDP stood at 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%, Eurostat previously released data showed. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>Governments alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest by 2030.</b></p><p>The U.S. may also face a political dilemma over its debt. In the face of \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way the Biden administration currently has is to raise the debt ceiling, and that will require Republican support. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, the US economy will be dealt a fatal blow when domestic bank interest rates soar, stock markets plunge and pension accounts shrink sharply.</p><p>By contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>IIF data released last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or are at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Fierce storms are brewing. The era of cheap money is fast becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve began their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Right now, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released recently by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the total global debt was $290 trillion in the third quarter. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>Economic and financial market risks piled up as central banks continued their rate hike and borrowing costs continued to rise for households, businesses and governments.</p><p>From the government's perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow a lot of dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden on most families, so this is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>At worst,<b>Some components of the global financial system could collapse.</b>From the mass bankruptcy of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries escaped the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been mounting, and a large portion of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to households already in debt.</b></p><p>Such a \"ticking time bomb\" no longer exists after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but it exists in other countries.</p><p>Such as Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household indebtedness in the world, with a 180% household debt-to-income ratio. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund as some borrowers had begun cutting off payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgages in the second quarter of this year were in a vulnerable financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached six times or more.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). Debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far above that figure in the Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian countries, and if central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this percentage will move beyond 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, said recently that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand would also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, the debt of households with mortgage loans accounting for more than 40% reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about RMB 9.8989 trillion) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters and maintaining a growth trend for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. The recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debts are mainly household debts.</p><p><b>More businesses will be insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF, businesses (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments as the biggest borrowers in the cheap money era, but unlike governments, they can't solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has had the biggest impact on some so-called \"zombie companies\", which generally only make just enough money to pay off their debts. In some ways, roughly one in five publicly traded companies already meet this definition when interest rates are low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", while companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>Global defaults on junk bonds will nearly double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the $6.7 trillion high-rated U.S. corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. SMEs, which tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. They are likely to be forced to lay off staff as the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment in the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that in the lifetime of these deals, Federal Funds rate would be closer to 5%.</b><b>Minutes from the November FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released last week, showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden levers\" in the nonbank sector that could disrupt the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar has made dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnam and Indonesia real estate bond prices fell sharply; The default of Legoland in South Korea in October triggered a panic selling in the credit market, which also fueled fears of default by housing companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies do not typically face the same direct challenges as households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>In Britain, for example, former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cuts nearly collapsed the country's Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the British financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government will still face the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>The Italian public debt problem is almost the most troublesome of the advanced economies.</b>By the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt to GDP stood at 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%, Eurostat previously released data showed. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>Governments alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest by 2030.</b></p><p>The U.S. may also face a political dilemma over its debt. In the face of \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way the Biden administration currently has is to raise the debt ceiling, and that will require Republican support. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, the US economy will be dealt a fatal blow when domestic bank interest rates soar, stock markets plunge and pension accounts shrink sharply.</p><p>By contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>IIF data released last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or are at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965977077,"gmtCreate":1669887131999,"gmtModify":1676538263424,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965977077","repostId":"1132114091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965072433,"gmtCreate":1669863195422,"gmtModify":1676538259271,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965072433","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also support Sunac through debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also support Sunac through debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564728,"gmtCreate":1669809938264,"gmtModify":1676538247754,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564728","repostId":"1170836510","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564680,"gmtCreate":1669809884540,"gmtModify":1676538247740,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564680","repostId":"1198215522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198215522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669792409,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198215522?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"China's sixth richest man, stumbled","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198215522","media":"巨潮WAVE","summary":"网易虽不惧暴雪的转身离去，但当今的网易早已离不开游戏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Xie Zefeng</p><p>In 2003, Ding Lei, 32, became the richest man in China. He has \"glory\" that other entrepreneurs can't match.</p><p>Around the age of 30, except Ding Lei, only Huang Guangyu and Chen Tianqiao can win such an honor.</p><p>You know, that year, Jack Ma and Lei Jun were just young people who were emerging. Robin Li was still crowded in Peking University Resource Hotel to rent a house and start a business. Tencent, founded by Ma Huateng, had to wait until the next year to go public.</p><p>After becoming famous, Ding Lei didn't stop tossing. He raised pigs, played music and entered e-commerce, but what really made him earn money every day was still the online game laid out in 2001.</p><p>At present, games still contribute over 70% of Netease's revenue and nearly 90% of its gross profit. Although Ding Lei started with portal website and mailbox business, and these two types of businesses constitute the widest C-end cognition, games are the cornerstone of his business empire.</p><p>Relying on games, Netease has made a lot of money, thus becoming a unique existence in China's Internet industry. Although Ding Lei claims that wealth can only bring him 5% happiness, Netease can only extend to other fields under the blood transfusion of game business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d49a3c45ff65a26df936728ee7739a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The recent breakup with Blizzard can only be said to be a small bump planted by Ding Lei, which is not painful or itchy. Because from the perspective of performance contribution, the benefits brought by Blizzard games to Netease are really not big.</p><p>In the capital market, investors' reaction to this was once strong and huge, and Netease's share price dropped sharply. Obviously, overseas capital does not know Netease so well. The selling of many investors is more related to the overall dilemma faced by Chinese stocks.</p><p><b>Can break up</b></p><p>Netease's agency Blizzard game revenue is about 4 billion yuan, accounting for only 8% of game revenue and less than 5% of total revenue. As a youth memory of a generation, the game that now acts as a proxy for Blizzard may have more symbolic meaning than substantive meaning.</p><p>According to Netease's financial report, game revenue licensed by third-party developers only accounted for 7.5%, 9.1% and 9.5% of the total net revenue in 2019, 2020 and 2021.</p><p>In addition to Blizzard, Netease's games include Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy and Spider-Man, Microsoft's Minecraft (Minecraft) and Warner Bros. Entertainment.</p><p>For Blizzard, the Chinese market is not so indispensable. Blizzard has pointed out that agency revenue in China only accounts for 15% of them, that is, 3% of the whole Activision Blizzard. Calculated according to the total revenue of Blizzard of $1.83 billion in 2021, the 50% sharing ratio, corresponding to Netease's agent Blizzard game revenue should be about 4 billion yuan, accounting for only 8% of the game revenue and less than 5% of the total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef572436c34cdd0634f5a4cde01ddc44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"100\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: thousands of RMB, Source: NetEase 2021 Financial Report</p><p>It has to be said that game agency is really a \"hard work\". On the one hand, we have to deal with powerful international giants such as Blizzard; on the other hand, we have to try our best to provide high-quality game services for Chinese players.</p><p>In addition to the annual Blizzard agency fee of more than 300 million, Netease will also commit to investing a lot of servers, broadband services and capital expenditures every year in the future. Among them, it will reach 4.3 billion yuan in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e387341a40e5ed74227d13ee26400c68\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: NetEase 2021 Financial Report</p><p>In this case, Netease's monthly card (the fee charged to players) is generally lower than the rest of the world, and Blizzard has to take half of its revenue and profits. Netease can only provide 14 years of service with high operating costs.</p><p>In the face of Blizzard's unilateral \"breakup\" statement, at the Q3 investor exchange meeting, Ding Lei responded that Netease very much hoped to continue to represent Blizzard games, and made a lot of efforts for this. \"But in the past period, the difficulty of negotiation far exceeded Netease's expectations. The cooperation terms proposed by Activision Blizzard are unacceptable.\"</p><p>It is rumored that Blizzard has put forward the \"sky-high price\" condition-including more than 50% revenue and net profit sharing, game pricing is synchronized with the world, and Netease will only enjoy the right to share the mobile games based on Blizzard IP developed by Netease in the future in China.</p><p>Some comments say that this is tantamount to asking Netease to \"work white\". Blizzard really bullies customers in some shops and looks ugly.</p><p>Such conditions, even if Ding Lei accepts them, Netease's investors will not agree.</p><p>Of course, Netease chooses to act as an agent for Blizzard games, and it is definitely not the meager \"salary\". Ding Lei's long-term goal is to mine the gold mine of Blizzard IP and help himself achieve the goal of 50% internationalization.</p><p>For example, the cooperation mode of the mobile game Diablo: Immortal is a separate agreement, which is not affected by the termination storm. And this game also contributed a lot to Netease in Q3.</p><p>Therefore, Netease's share price once plummeted, which was more caused by the market's worries about uncertainty and the catharsis of emotions. The suspension of this cooperation will have a much greater impact on players than on Netease's performance.</p><p>In the past 14 years, Blizzard has declined, and Netease is no longer Wu Xia Amon. It is the second largest game company in China after Tencent.</p><p>More importantly, backed by hundreds of millions of \"game people\" and 20 years of game development experience, Netease has long had the confidence to \"break up\" with Blizzard.</p><p><b>An inseparable game</b></p><p>A big horsepower cash harvester.</p><p>Although Netease is not afraid of Blizzard's turn and leave, today's Netease has long been inseparable from games.</p><p>In the third quarter, Netease's net revenue was 24.4 billion yuan, and its game and related revenue was 18.7 billion yuan, accounting for 77%; Considering that Netease Youdao and Netease Cloud Music are still in the loss stage, Netease's profits are almost entirely contributed by games.</p><p>Game is not only the backbone of Netease, but also a steady stream of ammunition for it to develop other businesses. Ding Lei once listed games, e-commerce, education and music as the four strategic deployments of Netease, and even said in 2016 that he would \"recreate a Netease\" within 3-5 years through Netease Koala, Netease Yanxuan and other businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891f6e0f65c900c4f122f556e07583e1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netease's \"small but beautiful\" business model of e-commerce has a beautiful dream, but the reality is cruel. Excessive investment, excessive cost, and low supply chain efficiency are all squeezing Netease's profit margin.</p><p>In September 2019, Netease sold Koala Haigou to Alibaba for $2 billion, but now it is not reused by Ali; Netease's strict selection is that under the background of the rise of Aauto Quicker e-commerce and Byte e-commerce, its volume has weakened, and it has been reduced from Ding Lei's \"heavy minister\" to \"abandoned son\". Nowadays, among the business lines divided in Netease's financial report, there is no classification of \"e-commerce\", but it is classified into other businesses.</p><p>After going around for more than ten years, Netease still relies on games. In the third quarter, under the background of \"cut-off supply\" of version number and intensified game competition, Tencent's game business revenue was about 42.9 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year; The net income of Netease Games was 18.7 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad035060f7680a34889a394b7c602c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As for Netease's other businesses, they are still losing money. As a recognized top \"product manager\" in the industry, the products handled by Ding Lei are always wrapped in idealism and simple feelings, and the product experience is unique and highly differentiated; But on the other hand, the realization time of these products is too long.</p><p>Netease Youdao and Netease Cloud Music only earn word-of-mouth but not money. The former has lost 4.4 billion yuan since 2018, while the latter has bled 9.3 billion yuan. Moreover, the market volume of the two is far less than that of games.</p><p>Therefore, every financial report of Netease can be summarized as the game business pulling \"a group of Adou\" with a handful of shit and a handful of urine.</p><p>Ding Lei once said that his family's business is good enough that there is no need to take any risks. Netease only invests in areas that it is familiar with and interested in. This may be understood as that it is difficult for Netease to find an industry better than its own business. The fact is that Netease's game business itself is a high-horsepower cash harvester.</p><p>Ding Lei is reasonable, focused and restrained enough. Its complacency and calmness to the outside world is actually the expression of Netease's mentality of \"lying and winning\" by games for many years.</p><p>At the same time, Netease also lacks the unique momentum of Internet companies in the long-term lying and earning. This seems to be a disadvantage when the industry grows brutally. However, when the growth rate of the industry slows down and goes downhill, Netease seems healthier and more stable. An obvious example is that Netease is one of the most resistant stock prices in the frenzy of the collapse of Chinese stocks.</p><p><b>Atypical Internet Companies</b></p><p>Missed the outlet, but also eliminated the risk.</p><p>Ding Lei and Netease, which he founded, are a non-mainstream existence in the Internet circle.</p><p>Don't fight, don't stand in sides, don't engage in alliances, don't join in the fun, don't keep up with the fashion, and only the Internet rivers and lakes that are fast and unbroken, he just pursues to win slowly, and the latter comes first.</p><p>\"Houchang Village\" in Shangdi, Beijing, is known as the center of China's Internet, where Internet companies such as Tencent, Sina, Baidu and Aauto Quicker gather. However, unlike these brightly lit and crowded neighbors, Netease always looks a little out of place.</p><p>In a conversation with Wu Xiaobo, Ding Lei said bluntly that \"those popular outlets are just a gust of demonic wind.\" He has no interest in the so-called Internet investment pedigree. Therefore, Netease missed the so-called \"golden opportunities\" such as sharing economy, O2O, Internet finance, short videos, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29acd7c2cc55f7bc2075dffb605036f0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Dialogue between Ding Lei and Wu Xiaobo</p><p>Today, the increase of Internet users has disappeared, the wind has faded, and the actual winter has arrived. Under the influence of supervision, antitrust investigation, epidemic situation, sluggish consumption and other factors, the former benchmark enterprises have lost their high growth magic.</p><p>And those thrusters that once helped the stock price soar instantly became \"big killers\" that swallowed profits and market value.</p><p>Due to the sharp drop in the equity value of listed companies, Alibaba's net loss in the third quarter was as high as 22.467 billion yuan; Tencent has almost paired JD.COM and Meituan with dividends, but there are still a lot of stocks that have fallen miserably.</p><p>Missed the vent, but also weeded out the risk and retained the ammo. Today's Netease is enough for neighbors to envy.</p><p>In the third quarter, Netease's total revenue was 24.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%; Net profit attributable to the parent reached 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 1.1 times. Of course, this includes the income from equity disposal of 1.3 billion yuan and the impact of cash appreciation in US dollars. The more realistic profitability indicator operating profit is 4.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, surpassing most peers.</p><p>In the current cold wind of the Internet, this performance is eye-catching. Long-term stable and strong performance has made Ding Lei rank at the forefront of the rich list for more than 20 years. China's Internet has gone through nearly 30 years, with ebbs and flows. Newcomers come and old people go, and he is still him.</p><p>In the 2022 Hurun Report, Ding Lei ranked the sixth richest person in China with a wealth value of 195 billion yuan, with his net worth rising by 24 billion yuan, eight places higher than last year, and is the entrepreneur with the highest rise among the top ten richest people.</p><p><b>Write at the end</b></p><p>Zhou Hongyi once said that Ding Lei is the only person in the Internet industry who is not anxious, and he has his own way of playing.</p><p>Wu Xiaobo said that almost none of the rich people he had seen were really happy. After being questioned, he added, \"Oh, there is one, Ding Lei.\"</p><p>Winning slowly and not investing money on a large scale makes Ding Lei more calm in today's Internet winter. Compared to his peers, he had given up many things-mainly opportunities and the temptation of more wealth. But it was these abandonments that gave him the kind of happiness recognized by Zhou Hongyi and Wu Xiaobo.</p><p>The other side of the coin is that while relying on games, Netease's other businesses have been struggling to form a climate. Ding Lei has been laying out at his own pace, but the opportunities in the industry are also slipping away from Ding Lei at his own pace.</p><p>Under the \"new normal\" of low Internet growth, Ding Lei's dream of \"recreating Netease\" is actually far away. But this Netease in front of us is enough to make countless entrepreneurs envious.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1642045066006","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's sixth richest man, stumbled</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's sixth richest man, stumbled\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">巨潮WAVE</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Xie Zefeng</p><p>In 2003, Ding Lei, 32, became the richest man in China. He has \"glory\" that other entrepreneurs can't match.</p><p>Around the age of 30, except Ding Lei, only Huang Guangyu and Chen Tianqiao can win such an honor.</p><p>You know, that year, Jack Ma and Lei Jun were just young people who were emerging. Robin Li was still crowded in Peking University Resource Hotel to rent a house and start a business. Tencent, founded by Ma Huateng, had to wait until the next year to go public.</p><p>After becoming famous, Ding Lei didn't stop tossing. He raised pigs, played music and entered e-commerce, but what really made him earn money every day was still the online game laid out in 2001.</p><p>At present, games still contribute over 70% of Netease's revenue and nearly 90% of its gross profit. Although Ding Lei started with portal website and mailbox business, and these two types of businesses constitute the widest C-end cognition, games are the cornerstone of his business empire.</p><p>Relying on games, Netease has made a lot of money, thus becoming a unique existence in China's Internet industry. Although Ding Lei claims that wealth can only bring him 5% happiness, Netease can only extend to other fields under the blood transfusion of game business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d49a3c45ff65a26df936728ee7739a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The recent breakup with Blizzard can only be said to be a small bump planted by Ding Lei, which is not painful or itchy. Because from the perspective of performance contribution, the benefits brought by Blizzard games to Netease are really not big.</p><p>In the capital market, investors' reaction to this was once strong and huge, and Netease's share price dropped sharply. Obviously, overseas capital does not know Netease so well. The selling of many investors is more related to the overall dilemma faced by Chinese stocks.</p><p><b>Can break up</b></p><p>Netease's agency Blizzard game revenue is about 4 billion yuan, accounting for only 8% of game revenue and less than 5% of total revenue. As a youth memory of a generation, the game that now acts as a proxy for Blizzard may have more symbolic meaning than substantive meaning.</p><p>According to Netease's financial report, game revenue licensed by third-party developers only accounted for 7.5%, 9.1% and 9.5% of the total net revenue in 2019, 2020 and 2021.</p><p>In addition to Blizzard, Netease's games include Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy and Spider-Man, Microsoft's Minecraft (Minecraft) and Warner Bros. Entertainment.</p><p>For Blizzard, the Chinese market is not so indispensable. Blizzard has pointed out that agency revenue in China only accounts for 15% of them, that is, 3% of the whole Activision Blizzard. Calculated according to the total revenue of Blizzard of $1.83 billion in 2021, the 50% sharing ratio, corresponding to Netease's agent Blizzard game revenue should be about 4 billion yuan, accounting for only 8% of the game revenue and less than 5% of the total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef572436c34cdd0634f5a4cde01ddc44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"100\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: thousands of RMB, Source: NetEase 2021 Financial Report</p><p>It has to be said that game agency is really a \"hard work\". On the one hand, we have to deal with powerful international giants such as Blizzard; on the other hand, we have to try our best to provide high-quality game services for Chinese players.</p><p>In addition to the annual Blizzard agency fee of more than 300 million, Netease will also commit to investing a lot of servers, broadband services and capital expenditures every year in the future. Among them, it will reach 4.3 billion yuan in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e387341a40e5ed74227d13ee26400c68\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: NetEase 2021 Financial Report</p><p>In this case, Netease's monthly card (the fee charged to players) is generally lower than the rest of the world, and Blizzard has to take half of its revenue and profits. Netease can only provide 14 years of service with high operating costs.</p><p>In the face of Blizzard's unilateral \"breakup\" statement, at the Q3 investor exchange meeting, Ding Lei responded that Netease very much hoped to continue to represent Blizzard games, and made a lot of efforts for this. \"But in the past period, the difficulty of negotiation far exceeded Netease's expectations. The cooperation terms proposed by Activision Blizzard are unacceptable.\"</p><p>It is rumored that Blizzard has put forward the \"sky-high price\" condition-including more than 50% revenue and net profit sharing, game pricing is synchronized with the world, and Netease will only enjoy the right to share the mobile games based on Blizzard IP developed by Netease in the future in China.</p><p>Some comments say that this is tantamount to asking Netease to \"work white\". Blizzard really bullies customers in some shops and looks ugly.</p><p>Such conditions, even if Ding Lei accepts them, Netease's investors will not agree.</p><p>Of course, Netease chooses to act as an agent for Blizzard games, and it is definitely not the meager \"salary\". Ding Lei's long-term goal is to mine the gold mine of Blizzard IP and help himself achieve the goal of 50% internationalization.</p><p>For example, the cooperation mode of the mobile game Diablo: Immortal is a separate agreement, which is not affected by the termination storm. And this game also contributed a lot to Netease in Q3.</p><p>Therefore, Netease's share price once plummeted, which was more caused by the market's worries about uncertainty and the catharsis of emotions. The suspension of this cooperation will have a much greater impact on players than on Netease's performance.</p><p>In the past 14 years, Blizzard has declined, and Netease is no longer Wu Xia Amon. It is the second largest game company in China after Tencent.</p><p>More importantly, backed by hundreds of millions of \"game people\" and 20 years of game development experience, Netease has long had the confidence to \"break up\" with Blizzard.</p><p><b>An inseparable game</b></p><p>A big horsepower cash harvester.</p><p>Although Netease is not afraid of Blizzard's turn and leave, today's Netease has long been inseparable from games.</p><p>In the third quarter, Netease's net revenue was 24.4 billion yuan, and its game and related revenue was 18.7 billion yuan, accounting for 77%; Considering that Netease Youdao and Netease Cloud Music are still in the loss stage, Netease's profits are almost entirely contributed by games.</p><p>Game is not only the backbone of Netease, but also a steady stream of ammunition for it to develop other businesses. Ding Lei once listed games, e-commerce, education and music as the four strategic deployments of Netease, and even said in 2016 that he would \"recreate a Netease\" within 3-5 years through Netease Koala, Netease Yanxuan and other businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891f6e0f65c900c4f122f556e07583e1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netease's \"small but beautiful\" business model of e-commerce has a beautiful dream, but the reality is cruel. Excessive investment, excessive cost, and low supply chain efficiency are all squeezing Netease's profit margin.</p><p>In September 2019, Netease sold Koala Haigou to Alibaba for $2 billion, but now it is not reused by Ali; Netease's strict selection is that under the background of the rise of Aauto Quicker e-commerce and Byte e-commerce, its volume has weakened, and it has been reduced from Ding Lei's \"heavy minister\" to \"abandoned son\". Nowadays, among the business lines divided in Netease's financial report, there is no classification of \"e-commerce\", but it is classified into other businesses.</p><p>After going around for more than ten years, Netease still relies on games. In the third quarter, under the background of \"cut-off supply\" of version number and intensified game competition, Tencent's game business revenue was about 42.9 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year; The net income of Netease Games was 18.7 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad035060f7680a34889a394b7c602c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As for Netease's other businesses, they are still losing money. As a recognized top \"product manager\" in the industry, the products handled by Ding Lei are always wrapped in idealism and simple feelings, and the product experience is unique and highly differentiated; But on the other hand, the realization time of these products is too long.</p><p>Netease Youdao and Netease Cloud Music only earn word-of-mouth but not money. The former has lost 4.4 billion yuan since 2018, while the latter has bled 9.3 billion yuan. Moreover, the market volume of the two is far less than that of games.</p><p>Therefore, every financial report of Netease can be summarized as the game business pulling \"a group of Adou\" with a handful of shit and a handful of urine.</p><p>Ding Lei once said that his family's business is good enough that there is no need to take any risks. Netease only invests in areas that it is familiar with and interested in. This may be understood as that it is difficult for Netease to find an industry better than its own business. The fact is that Netease's game business itself is a high-horsepower cash harvester.</p><p>Ding Lei is reasonable, focused and restrained enough. Its complacency and calmness to the outside world is actually the expression of Netease's mentality of \"lying and winning\" by games for many years.</p><p>At the same time, Netease also lacks the unique momentum of Internet companies in the long-term lying and earning. This seems to be a disadvantage when the industry grows brutally. However, when the growth rate of the industry slows down and goes downhill, Netease seems healthier and more stable. An obvious example is that Netease is one of the most resistant stock prices in the frenzy of the collapse of Chinese stocks.</p><p><b>Atypical Internet Companies</b></p><p>Missed the outlet, but also eliminated the risk.</p><p>Ding Lei and Netease, which he founded, are a non-mainstream existence in the Internet circle.</p><p>Don't fight, don't stand in sides, don't engage in alliances, don't join in the fun, don't keep up with the fashion, and only the Internet rivers and lakes that are fast and unbroken, he just pursues to win slowly, and the latter comes first.</p><p>\"Houchang Village\" in Shangdi, Beijing, is known as the center of China's Internet, where Internet companies such as Tencent, Sina, Baidu and Aauto Quicker gather. However, unlike these brightly lit and crowded neighbors, Netease always looks a little out of place.</p><p>In a conversation with Wu Xiaobo, Ding Lei said bluntly that \"those popular outlets are just a gust of demonic wind.\" He has no interest in the so-called Internet investment pedigree. Therefore, Netease missed the so-called \"golden opportunities\" such as sharing economy, O2O, Internet finance, short videos, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29acd7c2cc55f7bc2075dffb605036f0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Dialogue between Ding Lei and Wu Xiaobo</p><p>Today, the increase of Internet users has disappeared, the wind has faded, and the actual winter has arrived. Under the influence of supervision, antitrust investigation, epidemic situation, sluggish consumption and other factors, the former benchmark enterprises have lost their high growth magic.</p><p>And those thrusters that once helped the stock price soar instantly became \"big killers\" that swallowed profits and market value.</p><p>Due to the sharp drop in the equity value of listed companies, Alibaba's net loss in the third quarter was as high as 22.467 billion yuan; Tencent has almost paired JD.COM and Meituan with dividends, but there are still a lot of stocks that have fallen miserably.</p><p>Missed the vent, but also weeded out the risk and retained the ammo. Today's Netease is enough for neighbors to envy.</p><p>In the third quarter, Netease's total revenue was 24.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%; Net profit attributable to the parent reached 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 1.1 times. Of course, this includes the income from equity disposal of 1.3 billion yuan and the impact of cash appreciation in US dollars. The more realistic profitability indicator operating profit is 4.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, surpassing most peers.</p><p>In the current cold wind of the Internet, this performance is eye-catching. Long-term stable and strong performance has made Ding Lei rank at the forefront of the rich list for more than 20 years. China's Internet has gone through nearly 30 years, with ebbs and flows. Newcomers come and old people go, and he is still him.</p><p>In the 2022 Hurun Report, Ding Lei ranked the sixth richest person in China with a wealth value of 195 billion yuan, with his net worth rising by 24 billion yuan, eight places higher than last year, and is the entrepreneur with the highest rise among the top ten richest people.</p><p><b>Write at the end</b></p><p>Zhou Hongyi once said that Ding Lei is the only person in the Internet industry who is not anxious, and he has his own way of playing.</p><p>Wu Xiaobo said that almost none of the rich people he had seen were really happy. After being questioned, he added, \"Oh, there is one, Ding Lei.\"</p><p>Winning slowly and not investing money on a large scale makes Ding Lei more calm in today's Internet winter. Compared to his peers, he had given up many things-mainly opportunities and the temptation of more wealth. But it was these abandonments that gave him the kind of happiness recognized by Zhou Hongyi and Wu Xiaobo.</p><p>The other side of the coin is that while relying on games, Netease's other businesses have been struggling to form a climate. Ding Lei has been laying out at his own pace, but the opportunities in the industry are also slipping away from Ding Lei at his own pace.</p><p>Under the \"new normal\" of low Internet growth, Ding Lei's dream of \"recreating Netease\" is actually far away. But this Netease in front of us is enough to make countless entrepreneurs envious.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-11-30/doc-imqqsmrp8074683.shtml\">巨潮WAVE</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24aab5ed8966e670e5723a823f6bd617","relate_stocks":{"09999":"网易-S","NTES":"网易"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-11-30/doc-imqqsmrp8074683.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198215522","content_text":"文/谢泽锋2003年，32岁的丁磊登顶中国首富，他拥有了其他企业家难以企及的“荣耀”。30岁左右就能获得如此殊荣的，除了丁磊，只有黄光裕和陈天桥。要知道，那一年的马云、雷军还只是初露锋芒的年轻人，李彦宏还挤在北大资源宾馆里租房创业，马化腾创办的腾讯也要等到后一年才上市。成名之后，丁磊并没停止折腾，他搞养猪，玩音乐，入局电商，但真正让他日赚斗金的，仍然是2001年布局的网络游戏。时至当下，游戏仍然为网易贡献着超七成的收入，近九成的毛利润。虽然丁磊以门户网站、邮箱业务起家，也由这两类业务构成了最广泛的C端认知，但游戏才是其商业帝国的基石。靠着游戏，网易大赚特赚，也由此成为中国互联网界独特的存在。尽管丁磊声称财富只能为他带来5%的快乐，但网易只有在游戏业务的输血之下，才有向其他领域延伸的可能。近期与暴雪的分手，也只能说是丁磊栽的一个小跟头，不痛不痒。因为从业绩贡献度来看，暴雪游戏给网易带来的收益实在不算大。资本市场上，投资者对此的反应一度强烈巨大，网易股价因此大幅下跌。显然，海外资本并不是那么的了解网易。很多投资者的抛售，更多和中概股所面对的整体困境有系。可以分手网易代理暴雪游戏收入约40亿元左右，仅占游戏收入的8%，占总收入的5%不到。作为一代人的青春记忆，如今代理暴雪的游戏，其象征意义可能大于实质意义。根据网易财报，第三方开发商授权的游戏收入，在2019年、2020年及2021年仅占总净收入的7.5%、9.1%及9.5%。除了暴雪，网易代理的游戏还包括漫威的《银河护卫队》、《超能蜘蛛侠》，微软的《Minecraft》（我的世界）以及华纳兄弟娱乐等公司的作品。而对于暴雪来说，中国市场也没有那么不可或缺。暴雪方面曾指出，中国区的代理收入只占他们的15%，即整个动视暴雪的3%。按照2021年暴雪18.3亿美元的总收入来计算，50%的分成比例，对应网易代理暴雪游戏收入应该在40亿元左右，仅占游戏收入的8%，占总收入的5%不到。单位：千元人民币，来源：网易2021年财报不得不说，游戏代理属实是一件“苦力活”。一方面，要和暴雪等强势的国际巨头周旋，另一方面也要想尽办法，为中国玩家提供高品质的游戏服务。除了每年3亿多的暴雪代理费外，网易还要承诺未来每年投入不菲的服务器、宽带服务开支以及资本性支出。其中，2022年就高达43亿元。来源：网易2021年财报这种情况下，网易的月卡（向玩家收取的费用）价格普遍低于全球其他地区，而暴雪还要拿走一半的收入和利润。网易只能顶着高运营成本，提供了长达14年的服务。面对暴雪单方面的“分手”声明，在Q3投资者交流会上，丁磊回应称，网易非常希望继续代理暴雪游戏，并为此付出了非常多的努力，“但过去一段时间，谈判难度远超出网易方面的预期。动视暴雪提出的合作条款，是不可接受的。”据传，暴雪方面提出了“天价”条件——包括50%以上的收入和净利润分成，游戏定价与全球同步，而且未来网易研发的基于暴雪IP的手游，网易仅享有中国区的分成权。有评论称，这无异于要求网易“打白工”，暴雪着实有些店大欺客，吃相难看。这样的条件，即便是丁磊接受了，网易的投资者们也不会答应。当然，网易选择代理暴雪游戏，看上的肯定不是那点微薄的“工资”。丁磊的长远目标，是希望挖掘暴雪IP的金矿，并且帮助自己实现50%国际化的目标。比如，手游《暗黑破坏神：不朽》的合作方式，就是单独签订的协议，并不受此次解约风波影响。而这款游戏也在Q3为网易贡献了颇多流水。因此，网易股价一度因此大跌，更多的是市场对不确定的担忧，以及情绪的宣泄导致。本次合作中止，对玩家的影响要远大于对网易业绩的影响。14年间，暴雪江河日下，而网易已非吴下阿蒙，它已是仅次于腾讯的中国第二大游戏公司。更重要的是，背靠数亿“游戏人口”，和二十年的游戏开发经验，网易早就有了和暴雪“分手”的底气。离不开的游戏一台大马力的现金收割机。网易虽不惧暴雪的转身离去，但当今的网易早已离不开游戏。第三季度，网易净营收244亿元，游戏及相关收入为187亿元，占比高达77%；考虑到网易有道和网易云音乐还处于亏损阶段，网易的利润几乎全部由游戏贡献。游戏不仅是网易的顶梁柱，更是为其开拓其他业务输送源源不断的弹药。丁磊曾将游戏、电商、教育、音乐列为网易的四大战略部署，甚至在2016年雄心满满地表示，3-5年内通过网易考拉、网易严选等业务“再造一个网易”。网易电商“小而美”的商业模式，梦想很美好，但现实很残酷。过重的投入，过高的成本，以及较低的供应链效率，都在挤压着网易的利润空间。2019年9月，网易以20亿美金将考拉海购卖给阿里巴巴，但如今也不被阿里重用；网易严选则是在快手电商、字节电商崛起的背景下声量减弱，从丁磊寄予厚望的“重臣”沦为“弃子”。如今网易财报中划分的业务条线中，已经没有“电商”的分类，而是被归入其他业务。兜兜转转十几载，网易仰仗的还是游戏。第三季度，在版号“断供”及游戏竞争加剧的背景下，腾讯游戏业务收入约429亿元，同比下滑4%；而网易游戏净收入187亿元，同比上涨9.1%。至于网易的其他业务，仍在亏损。作为业内公认的顶级“产品经理”，丁磊经手的产品，总是裹挟着理想主义和朴素情怀，产品体验独树一帜，具有较强的差异化；但另一方面，这些产品的变现时间过长。网易有道和网易云音乐只赚口碑不赚钱。前者自2018年以来，亏损44亿元，后者则流血93亿元。而且两者所在的市场体量，还远不及游戏。所以网易的每次财报，都可以总结为游戏业务一把屎一把尿地拉扯“一群阿斗”。丁磊曾表示，自己家的业务足够好了，没有必要再去冒险。网易只投资自己熟悉和感兴趣的领域。这或许可以理解为，网易难以寻找到比自身业务更加优秀的行业。而事实就是，网易的游戏业务本身就是一台大马力的现金收割机。丁磊足够理智、专注和克制。其对外界表现出的怡然自得和从容率真，其实也是网易多年靠游戏“躺赢”的心态流露。与此同时，在长期的躺赚之中，网易也缺少了互联网企业特有的冲劲儿。这在行业野蛮成长跑马圈地时看似是个劣势。但当行业增速放缓、走向下坡路的时候，网易就显得更加健康平稳。一个明显的例证就是，在中概股溃败的狂潮中，网易是其中股价最抗跌者之一。非典型互联网公司错过了风口，但也剔除了风险。丁磊和他创办的网易，在互联网圈都是一股非主流的存在。不争不抢，不站队，不搞联盟，不凑热闹，不赶时髦，唯快不破的互联网江湖，他偏偏追求以慢制胜，后发先至。北京上地“后厂村”，被称为中国互联网的中心，这里聚集了腾讯、新浪、百度、快手等等互联网企业，但与这些灯火通明、人声鼎沸的邻居们不同，网易总是有一点格格不入的样子。在与吴晓波的一次对话中，丁磊很直白地表示“那些时下流行的风口，只不过是一阵妖风。”更对所谓的互联网投资谱系毫无兴趣。网易因此错过了共享经济、O2O、互联网金融、短视频等等所谓的“黄金机遇”。丁磊与吴晓波的对话时至今日，互联网用户的增量消失殆尽，风口褪去，实质意义上的寒冬已经到来。在监管、反垄断调查、疫情、消费低迷等因素的影响下，曾经的标杆企业们纷纷失去了高增长魔力。而那些曾经助推股价蹿升的推进器，也瞬间变为吞噬利润和市值的“大杀器”。由于所持上市公司股权价值大幅下挫，阿里巴巴第三季度净亏损高达224.67亿元；腾讯选择以分红方式几乎了结对京东和美团的投资，但手里还有大量惨跌的股票。错过了风口，但也剔除了风险，保留了弹药。如今的网易，足够邻居们羡慕。第三季度，网易总营收244亿元，同比增加10%；归母净利润达到67亿元，同比增长超1.1倍。当然，这其中包括13亿的股权处置收益及美元现金增值影响，更真实的盈利能力指标经营利润为47亿元，同比增长26%，超过了大多数同行。当下凌冽的互联网寒风中，这样的表现令人侧目。长期稳健强势的业绩表现，令丁磊20多年稳居富豪榜前列。中国互联网走过近30年，潮起潮落，新人来旧人去，他还是他。《2022胡润百富榜》中，丁磊以1950亿财富值位居中国第六大富豪，身价上涨了240亿元，比去年前进了8个名次，是前十大富豪中上升幅度最高的企业家。写在最后周鸿祎曾说，丁磊是互联网界唯一不焦虑的人，他有自己的玩法。吴晓波则是说，自己见过的大富豪中几乎没有一个是真快乐。在追问之下，他又补充了一句：“哦，是有一个，丁磊。”以慢制胜，不大规模撒钱投资，让丁磊在如今的互联网寒冬中更加从容。相比其他同行，他舍弃过很多东西——主要是机会和更多财富的诱惑。但正是这些舍弃，让他获得了被周鸿祎和吴晓波认可的那种快乐。而硬币的另一面则在于，对游戏依赖的同时，网易的其他业务一直难以形成气候。丁磊一直在以自己的节奏布局，但行业的机会也在按照自己的节奏，从丁磊面前溜走。互联网低增长的“新常态”下，丁磊心目中“再造网易”的梦想其实已经遥遥无期。但眼前的这个网易，已足够让无数企业家羡慕不已了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09999":0.9,"NTES":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962562272,"gmtCreate":1669809650797,"gmtModify":1676538247685,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962562272","repostId":"1178477450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962648710,"gmtCreate":1669773611130,"gmtModify":1676538240258,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962648710","repostId":"2287795435","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287795435","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669734185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287795435?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 23:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Real Estate Stocks Hit Epic Surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287795435","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"翻身了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate sector, which has been in a long downturn, has not seen such a scene for a long time.</p><p>Nov. 29, first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000736\">CCCC Real Estate</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600657\">Cinda Properties</a>Wait for the daily limit of small and medium-sized real estate stocks. Then, before the close of midday, leading housing companies such as Vanke, Gemdale and Greentown sealed the daily limit.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">Poly Development</a>It also had a daily limit in the intraday session, up 9.61% at the close. The whole A-share real estate sector rose by 7.07% in the day, leading A-shares, and 40 stocks in the sector reached their daily limit.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01109\">China Resources Land</a>Housing companies such as Longhu and Zhonghai also led the rise, with individual stocks rising by more than 6%. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>Including Shimao, Xuhui and Sino-Ocean, the domestic debts of many housing enterprises have set off a temporary shutdown tide.</p><p>The last time Vanke had a daily limit was two weeks ago, the rumor of the \"Sixteen Financial Articles\" made the whole real estate sector soar by 5%. But this time, the capital market is more restless. Except for the daily limit of leading housing companies such as Vanke, the overall increase is not small.</p><p>Looking at the timeline, in the past five years, the real estate sector has only increased by more than 7% once in 2020. However, at that time, the market was hot, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 25% in just three months. The rise of the real estate sector was just the so-called low valuation repair following the rise of banks and brokerages. This is very different from what the market is like today.</p><p>The direct reason for the \"epic surge\" that has not been seen in the real estate sector for many years is that the spokesman of the CSRC said on November 28th that it would adjust the real estate equity financing policy, allow housing enterprises to reorganize and list in A shares, and restore the refinancing channels of housing enterprises in A shares.</p><p>A-share listing, which almost stagnated after the introduction of the \"New Country Ten Articles\" in 2010, included real estate tycoons such as Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande, and Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group, who tried every way to break through, but had never been able to do so, so it suddenly became easy.</p><p>This makes the financing channels of housing enterprises further smooth. After many banks provided trillions of credit support for housing enterprises and the continuous expansion of bond financing support tools for housing enterprises, the \"third arrow\", that is, equity financing, has also been shot.</p><p>At present, on the financing side of housing enterprises, the \"three arrows\" of loan financing, bond financing and equity financing have successively introduced policies.</p><p>Compared with the support of loan financing and bond financing, the CSRC's loosening of the refinancing of housing enterprises has a wider coverage, and it is no longer just some leading housing enterprises and high-quality housing enterprises that benefit from it.</p><p>This is also reflected in the market. The first to take the daily limit are small and medium-sized housing enterprises such as CCCC Real Estate and Cinda Real Estate, which are the most direct beneficiaries of this equity financing liberalization. By refinancing in a non-public way, these housing enterprises can raise a lot of funds for policy-supported real estate business.</p><p>Like Cinda Real Estate, backed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01359\">China Cinda</a>This big tree, under the background of Cinda Department's disposal of non-performing assets and relief of housing enterprises, has acquired many project resources simultaneously. Including the project bailout of Kaisa and other insurance housing enterprises, Cinda Real Estate has intervened in the form of agent construction.</p><p>However, in addition to the rise of these small and medium-sized housing enterprises, leading housing enterprises will also benefit from the implementation of policies. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The institutions pointed out that if high-credit housing enterprises are successfully financed, they are likely to further consolidate their market position, and with the repair of the balance sheet of high-quality housing enterprises, the industrial chain is expected to be further stabilized, and the asset price will also be stabilized, providing material conditions for the next industrial mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>That is to say, the long-awaited but rare mergers and acquisitions in the market in the past year will also be supported by the opening of this policy. Leading housing companies such as China Shipping and China Resources Land will also take greater steps in mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>This is also similar to today's market reaction. The capital market votes with its feet, and the change of stock price intuitively reflects the pattern reshaping of the whole real estate industry.</p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is pointed out that this policy adjustment is a milestone event for the real estate industry. It is helpful to boost market confidence in the short term and promote fundamental stabilization in the medium and long term.</p><p>Nowadays, the expectation of the capital market has changed with this \"epic\" surge. Next, there can be more policy expectations on the consumer side, such as the decline of interest rates.</p><p>With the continuous implementation of policies, the credit of more housing enterprises will be repaired, the confidence of consumers and institutions in housing enterprises will also come back, and real estate will eventually embark on the road of stable and healthy development.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real Estate Stocks Hit Epic Surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal Estate Stocks Hit Epic Surge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-29 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate sector, which has been in a long downturn, has not seen such a scene for a long time.</p><p>Nov. 29, first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000736\">CCCC Real Estate</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600657\">Cinda Properties</a>Wait for the daily limit of small and medium-sized real estate stocks. Then, before the close of midday, leading housing companies such as Vanke, Gemdale and Greentown sealed the daily limit.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">Poly Development</a>It also had a daily limit in the intraday session, up 9.61% at the close. The whole A-share real estate sector rose by 7.07% in the day, leading A-shares, and 40 stocks in the sector reached their daily limit.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01109\">China Resources Land</a>Housing companies such as Longhu and Zhonghai also led the rise, with individual stocks rising by more than 6%. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>Including Shimao, Xuhui and Sino-Ocean, the domestic debts of many housing enterprises have set off a temporary shutdown tide.</p><p>The last time Vanke had a daily limit was two weeks ago, the rumor of the \"Sixteen Financial Articles\" made the whole real estate sector soar by 5%. But this time, the capital market is more restless. Except for the daily limit of leading housing companies such as Vanke, the overall increase is not small.</p><p>Looking at the timeline, in the past five years, the real estate sector has only increased by more than 7% once in 2020. However, at that time, the market was hot, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 25% in just three months. The rise of the real estate sector was just the so-called low valuation repair following the rise of banks and brokerages. This is very different from what the market is like today.</p><p>The direct reason for the \"epic surge\" that has not been seen in the real estate sector for many years is that the spokesman of the CSRC said on November 28th that it would adjust the real estate equity financing policy, allow housing enterprises to reorganize and list in A shares, and restore the refinancing channels of housing enterprises in A shares.</p><p>A-share listing, which almost stagnated after the introduction of the \"New Country Ten Articles\" in 2010, included real estate tycoons such as Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande, and Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group, who tried every way to break through, but had never been able to do so, so it suddenly became easy.</p><p>This makes the financing channels of housing enterprises further smooth. After many banks provided trillions of credit support for housing enterprises and the continuous expansion of bond financing support tools for housing enterprises, the \"third arrow\", that is, equity financing, has also been shot.</p><p>At present, on the financing side of housing enterprises, the \"three arrows\" of loan financing, bond financing and equity financing have successively introduced policies.</p><p>Compared with the support of loan financing and bond financing, the CSRC's loosening of the refinancing of housing enterprises has a wider coverage, and it is no longer just some leading housing enterprises and high-quality housing enterprises that benefit from it.</p><p>This is also reflected in the market. The first to take the daily limit are small and medium-sized housing enterprises such as CCCC Real Estate and Cinda Real Estate, which are the most direct beneficiaries of this equity financing liberalization. By refinancing in a non-public way, these housing enterprises can raise a lot of funds for policy-supported real estate business.</p><p>Like Cinda Real Estate, backed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01359\">China Cinda</a>This big tree, under the background of Cinda Department's disposal of non-performing assets and relief of housing enterprises, has acquired many project resources simultaneously. Including the project bailout of Kaisa and other insurance housing enterprises, Cinda Real Estate has intervened in the form of agent construction.</p><p>However, in addition to the rise of these small and medium-sized housing enterprises, leading housing enterprises will also benefit from the implementation of policies. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The institutions pointed out that if high-credit housing enterprises are successfully financed, they are likely to further consolidate their market position, and with the repair of the balance sheet of high-quality housing enterprises, the industrial chain is expected to be further stabilized, and the asset price will also be stabilized, providing material conditions for the next industrial mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>That is to say, the long-awaited but rare mergers and acquisitions in the market in the past year will also be supported by the opening of this policy. Leading housing companies such as China Shipping and China Resources Land will also take greater steps in mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>This is also similar to today's market reaction. The capital market votes with its feet, and the change of stock price intuitively reflects the pattern reshaping of the whole real estate industry.</p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is pointed out that this policy adjustment is a milestone event for the real estate industry. It is helpful to boost market confidence in the short term and promote fundamental stabilization in the medium and long term.</p><p>Nowadays, the expectation of the capital market has changed with this \"epic\" surge. Next, there can be more policy expectations on the consumer side, such as the decline of interest rates.</p><p>With the continuous implementation of policies, the credit of more housing enterprises will be repaired, the confidence of consumers and institutions in housing enterprises will also come back, and real estate will eventually embark on the road of stable and healthy development.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676184\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c69408b096e1ffddb79e1de5762142","relate_stocks":{"000736":"*ST中地","02007":"碧桂园"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676184","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287795435","content_text":"低迷许久的地产板块，已经很久没有看到过这样的场景了。11月29日，先是中交地产、信达地产等中小市值的地产股一字涨停。随后在午盘收盘前，万科、金地和绿城等龙头房企封住涨停。保利发展盘中也一度涨停，至收盘涨9.61%。整个A股房地产板块日内上涨了7.07%，领涨A股，板块内40只股票涨停。港股方面，华润置地、龙湖和中海等房企也领涨板块，个股涨幅超6%。包括碧桂园、世茂、旭辉和远洋等在内，多家房企境内债掀起了临停潮。上一次万科涨停还是在两周前，“金融十六条”出台的传闻让整个地产板块大涨5%。只不过这一次，资本市场更加躁动，除了万科等龙头房企涨停外，整体涨幅都不小。拉长时间轴来看，近5年里，地产板块仅在2020年时有一次涨幅超过7%。只不过彼时市场火热，沪指在短短三个月里上涨了超25%，房地产板块的上涨也不过是跟着银行、券商板块上涨，进行所谓的低估值修复罢了。这与如今的市场情况截然不同。让地产板块迎来多年未遇的“史诗级暴涨”的直接原因，是证监会新闻发言人在11月28日表示，将会对房地产股权融资政策进行调整，允许房企在A股重组上市，恢复房企在A股的再融资渠道。A股上市，这个在2010年“新国十条”出台后几乎停滞，包括恒大董事会主席许家印、万达集团董事长王健林等地产大佬，想方设法想要突破，却一直未能如愿的事情，就这样突然变得轻松了起来。这使得房企在融资渠道上进一步畅通。在多家银行为房企提供数万亿授信支持、房企债券融资支持工具持续扩容之后，“第三支箭”即股权融资也已射出。目前，在房企融资端，贷款融资、债券融资和股权融资的“三支箭”均陆续出台了政策。相比在贷款融资、债券融资支持，这次证监会对房企再融资的松绑，覆盖面更加广泛，从中获益的也不再只是一些龙头房企、优质房企。这也反映到市场上，率先一字涨停的都是中交地产、信达地产等中小型房企，它们是此次股权融资放开最直接的受益对象。通过以非公开方式再融资，这些房企可以募得不少资金用在政策支持的房地产业务上。像信达地产，背靠中国信达这棵大树，在信达系处置不良资产，对房企解危纾困的背景下，已同步获取了不少项目资源。包括佳兆业等出险房企的项目纾困上，信达地产已以代建等形式介入其中。不过除了这些中小房企的崛起，龙头房企也会随着政策落地而获益。包括中信证券在内的机构指出，高信用的房企如果顺利融资，很可能进一步巩固自身的市场地位，并且随着优质房企资产负债表的修复，产业链预期也会进一步稳定，资产价格也会稳定下来，为接下来的产业并购开展提供物质条件。也就是说，过去一年市场里期待已久，但鲜少发生的收并购，也会随着这次政策开阀得到支撑。像中海、华润置地等龙头房企，也会在收并购上步子迈得更大些。这也和今天市场的反应相似，资本市场用脚投票，用股价的变化，直观地体现出了整个地产行业的格局重塑。正如中金公司所指出，此次政策调整，对于房地产行业而言是里程碑式事件。对短期提振市场信心和中长期促进基本面企稳均有助益。如今，资本市场的预期已然随着这场“史诗级”暴涨而改变，接下来在消费端，比如说利率下降方面，也可以有更多政策期待了。随着政策不断落地，更多房企的信用会得以修复，消费者、机构对于房企的信心也会回来，房地产终会走上平稳健康发展的路。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02007":0.9,"000736":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962657477,"gmtCreate":1669772899500,"gmtModify":1676538240049,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962657477","repostId":"1170581889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170581889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669769401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170581889?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 08:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Mystery of Bank Low Valuations: From the Bank's Own Views","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170581889","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险，比如不良贷款，而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。A股银行股持续处于低估状态","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The ability of the management of domestic banks to manage new risks has not been confirmed by the market. The risk here does not only refer to a certain business risk, such as non-performing loans, but \"new risk\", which refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model. A-share bank stocks continue to be undervalued. What is even more unacceptable is that many high-quality A-share banks are valued lower than many large overseas banks with worse profits, which is completely unexplainable under the PB-ROE framework. For this reason, all parties in the market give various explanations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9b36ffa054e8f96837b636aa2cb40a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem of bank valuation is not a hot topic in academics, and only a few papers are mostly for bank practitioners, and there are not many achievements in academic circles.</p><p>This paper presents a paper entitled<b>Discussion on the Importance of Bank Market Valuation and the Low Valuation of China's Banking Industry</b>(hereinafter referred to as the \"Article\"), written by Dr. Huang Zhiling, then the chief economist of China Construction Bank, was published in Credit Information magazine (sponsored by Zhengzhou Training Institute of the People's Bank of China) in January 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047c12359cd134c85be34f118de32f8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starting from the fact that the performance of Chinese bank stocks is acceptable but the valuation is extremely low, this paper discusses the reasons behind it, and some thoughts on the work of bank market value.</p><p>This paper is divided into three parts (this paper is divided into four parts), and the logic is concise and clear. It presents us an internal management perspective of the bank to interpret the problem of low valuation.</p><p><b>How to view bank market capitalization</b></p><p>The paper puts forward that the market value or valuation of a bank represents the comprehensive cognition of the market on the development prospect of a bank. In the long run, it can be used as a good evaluation index, so it should be paid attention to by all parties.</p><p>Bank evaluation has always been a long-standing problem in the industry. Because, the indicators of banks cover all aspects. The business essence of commercial banks is the balance of three properties (profitability, liquidity and security), so we can't simply use profit as one dimension, but also take into account risks or others. Usually, when we do bank analysis, asset scale, profitability, risk control, social responsibility and other aspects will be involved, so it is difficult to evaluate \"who is better than who\" with one or two indicators.</p><p>In response to this problem, various so-called comprehensive evaluation systems have been developed in the industry, and their principles are roughly the same:<b>Select some representative indicators in all aspects of the bank, then give a certain weight to each indicator, and then weighted and summed to get a comprehensive score (or rating). Then use this composite score to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</b>For example, the earliest \"CAMEL\" rating, the regulatory rating of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the financial institution rating of the People's Bank of China, and the \"Gyro Evaluation System\" of the Banking Association are generally this routine. Our team itself has also developed a bank credit evaluation system, that is, finding a bunch of indicators that we think are important to bank credit risk, empowering and summing, and getting ratings. Available in June 2022 report<b>Bank Credit Risk Analysis: Framework and Model</b>。</p><p>This set of evaluation systems requires a small range of experts to manually select indicators and set weights, so it is impossible to be completely accurate, and sometimes some results that are inconsistent with intuitive feelings will come out. For this reason, we can change our thinking: instead of being evaluated by a small range of experts, we can pull the bank into the market to \"slip around\" and let the market evaluate. The bank discloses all kinds of data and information itself, puts it in front of the whole market, and is comprehensively evaluated by Mr. Market. Market value or valuation is a result after Mr. Market's comprehensive evaluation.</p><p>Of course, the market can make mistakes and even be manipulated in the short term. But in the long run, it is reliable, at least more reliable than small-scale experts, right?</p><p><b>Therefore, market value or valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation of banks.</b>From the point of view of this article, the bank management can't ignore the market value, and feel that it can report to its superiors if it manages the bank's performance well. Instead, it should be deeply aware that if the market value is so low, it must reflect some problems and can't be ignored. Now we are gratified to see that the policy authorities have also taken market value as one of the assessment contents of state-owned enterprises.</p><p><b>Can not be single attributed</b></p><p>The paper goes on to point out that since valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation given by the market, it cannot be attributed to one or two factors (that is, it cannot be explained by one or two indicators of the bank). And this single attribution method happens to be what our securities analysts used in the past.</p><p>At that time, the background was: the bank's operating conditions in all aspects were ok, and there were not many particularly negative indicators. Only one indicator was relatively negative, that is, there were more non-performing loans. Therefore, if a bank's PB is less than 1 times, such as 0.8-0.9 times, it implies that the market thinks that the bank's net assets are inflated and moisturized. The part of the discount is the hidden non-performing loans. If this part of \"hidden bad\" is exposed, then the NPL ratio of banks may reach 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf31544c23afd222183e0db6d9874999\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This method cannot be used when PB falls below 0.7 times or even lower. Because according to this method, when the PB rating is low, the calculated non-performing ratio is extremely high, and some stocks can even be as high as more than 20%... The non-performing ratio of these mainstream banks listed in China will never reach this level (at least most of them will not). It can be seen that hiding bad can no longer explain the extremely low valuation.</p><p>Therefore, this article needs to answer a core question: So why is the bank valuation so low?</p><p><b>Reasons for low valuation</b></p><p><b>This paper directly gives the point that the ability of domestic bank management to manage new risks has not been confirmed by the market.</b>Risk here does not refer to a business risk alone (such as bad loans), but<b>\"New risks\"</b>It refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model.</p><p>Many environmental changes that we have learned when we were in school (interest rate liberalization, financial internationalization, financial disintermediation, direct financial development, etc.) are really happening now. To be honest, these things happened later than expected, after all, we were learning these when we went to college 20 years ago (at that time, the US and other developed Western countries had already experienced it). However, it is disappointing that 20 years ago, we began to shout these things, and let banks practice all kinds of \"internal skills\". Today, many of our banks are still not fully prepared. This has to be said to be a pity and a very urgent task. Now the country is promoting a higher level of opening up to the outside world. If your own wings are not hard, you can't find the north even if you fly out...</p><p>Of course, this can't erase the great progress in internal strength of China's banking industry in the past ten years. However, the times are also progressing, and so are excellent overseas banks, so we can't be complacent on the existing report card.</p><p><b>In short, although our bank's current performance is still very good, its business model and management model (internal strength) are still not advanced enough, and they can't fully adapt to the new economic development environment (at least the market can't confirm the bank's ability).</b>As an executive of a large bank, the author takes this point as the main reason for explaining the low valuation of banks from the perspective of internal banks. This is very important to those of us<b>\"Outside Eyes\"</b>It was very inspiring.</p><p>The paper lists some capabilities that banks do not yet fully possess, but are urgently needed in the new environment, including:</p><p>(1) Restrict and encourage effective corporate governance capabilities, especially in terms of incentives. It is advisable to learn from overseas countries and change the existing rigid salary; (2) the ability to transform internal structures, processes and mechanisms to truly realize customer-centricity; (3) Many banks still lack international operating capabilities in response to globalization, including specific businesses such as RMB derivatives, market services, global financial services, wealth or asset management capabilities, etc. From these perspectives, we do admit that the capacity of many banks in China is indeed somewhat lacking. Although the performance is okay, if the ability doesn't keep up, there is no guarantee that the future performance will continue to be good, and sooner or later it will become a \"dinosaur\" that is about to die out in the new economic environment. Compared with overseas, of course, their banks are not all good (and uneven), but some cases make us sigh after reading them. For example, some particularly small banks, even small banks in the town, have small sparrows and complete internal organs, and their business philosophies and business models are very standardized. For example, American West Bank, which we tracked last time, is a very small bank with a very mature wealth business model. Please refer to \"The Road of Small and Medium-sized Banks to Build Characteristic Wealth Management\".</p><p>Therefore, there is indeed a gap in observing the underlying capabilities of domestic and foreign banks through these \"superficial\" figures of financial performance, which may explain our extremely low valuation. Of course, there is no need to belittle yourself. China also has a number of excellent banks.</p><p><b>Emphasizing the Theory and Practice of Market Value Management</b></p><p>This paper also mentions some thoughts on market value management. If a bank has a good market value, it will have many benefits, which in turn will promote its own development. Good market value, which in itself is a reflection of the comprehensive evaluation of the Bank. At the same time, it can increase the difficulty of being acquired, reduce the difficulty of other acquisitions, and also reduce the financing cost and difficulty. There are even real cases of high-quality banks in China that have increased their popularity in the corporate world (investors know it) because of their high market value and large increase, thus helping them to develop their businesses.</p><p>The article concludes with a few points:</p><p>(1) Market value is a comprehensive evaluation, not an evaluation of certain indicators. It is of little significance to deliberately optimize some popular indicators (such as increasing the proportion of middle income and wealth business). Instead, to improve the overall quality of banks, the whole bank works hard for the overall strength; (2) improve corporate governance and clarify the division of labor in market value management; (3) Strengthen the customs investment work and take the initiative to communicate with investors (some banks have established a normalized communication mechanism with investors and analysts, which is worth learning from); (4) Effective use of market value resources and capital operation; (5) Establish a good image of the capital market; (6) Put an end to pseudo-market value management behaviors such as stock price manipulation. Indeed, more and more banks are beginning to pay attention to these jobs.</p><p>Because, previously, that point of the paper is the ability of domestic bank management to manage new risks<b>\"Not confirmed by the market\"</b>。 That is to say, our banks don't necessarily have these capabilities, but it may also be: in fact, the capabilities are gradually gaining, but the market still doesn't know it and can't see it...</p><p>Just because these abilities are very internal abilities (so they are called \"internal strength\"), it is difficult to simply show this ability to the market with one or two indicators.</p><p>For example: I am often asked, which bank has stronger financial technology now?</p><p>This kind of question is almost impossible to answer. This ability of financial technology is a typical internal strength, and it is difficult to simply compare it.</p><p>Here is the test of the ability of market value management.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Mystery of Bank Low Valuations: From the Bank's Own Views</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Mystery of Bank Low Valuations: From the Bank's Own Views\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The ability of the management of domestic banks to manage new risks has not been confirmed by the market. The risk here does not only refer to a certain business risk, such as non-performing loans, but \"new risk\", which refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model. A-share bank stocks continue to be undervalued. What is even more unacceptable is that many high-quality A-share banks are valued lower than many large overseas banks with worse profits, which is completely unexplainable under the PB-ROE framework. For this reason, all parties in the market give various explanations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9b36ffa054e8f96837b636aa2cb40a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem of bank valuation is not a hot topic in academics, and only a few papers are mostly for bank practitioners, and there are not many achievements in academic circles.</p><p>This paper presents a paper entitled<b>Discussion on the Importance of Bank Market Valuation and the Low Valuation of China's Banking Industry</b>(hereinafter referred to as the \"Article\"), written by Dr. Huang Zhiling, then the chief economist of China Construction Bank, was published in Credit Information magazine (sponsored by Zhengzhou Training Institute of the People's Bank of China) in January 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047c12359cd134c85be34f118de32f8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starting from the fact that the performance of Chinese bank stocks is acceptable but the valuation is extremely low, this paper discusses the reasons behind it, and some thoughts on the work of bank market value.</p><p>This paper is divided into three parts (this paper is divided into four parts), and the logic is concise and clear. It presents us an internal management perspective of the bank to interpret the problem of low valuation.</p><p><b>How to view bank market capitalization</b></p><p>The paper puts forward that the market value or valuation of a bank represents the comprehensive cognition of the market on the development prospect of a bank. In the long run, it can be used as a good evaluation index, so it should be paid attention to by all parties.</p><p>Bank evaluation has always been a long-standing problem in the industry. Because, the indicators of banks cover all aspects. The business essence of commercial banks is the balance of three properties (profitability, liquidity and security), so we can't simply use profit as one dimension, but also take into account risks or others. Usually, when we do bank analysis, asset scale, profitability, risk control, social responsibility and other aspects will be involved, so it is difficult to evaluate \"who is better than who\" with one or two indicators.</p><p>In response to this problem, various so-called comprehensive evaluation systems have been developed in the industry, and their principles are roughly the same:<b>Select some representative indicators in all aspects of the bank, then give a certain weight to each indicator, and then weighted and summed to get a comprehensive score (or rating). Then use this composite score to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</b>For example, the earliest \"CAMEL\" rating, the regulatory rating of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the financial institution rating of the People's Bank of China, and the \"Gyro Evaluation System\" of the Banking Association are generally this routine. Our team itself has also developed a bank credit evaluation system, that is, finding a bunch of indicators that we think are important to bank credit risk, empowering and summing, and getting ratings. Available in June 2022 report<b>Bank Credit Risk Analysis: Framework and Model</b>。</p><p>This set of evaluation systems requires a small range of experts to manually select indicators and set weights, so it is impossible to be completely accurate, and sometimes some results that are inconsistent with intuitive feelings will come out. For this reason, we can change our thinking: instead of being evaluated by a small range of experts, we can pull the bank into the market to \"slip around\" and let the market evaluate. The bank discloses all kinds of data and information itself, puts it in front of the whole market, and is comprehensively evaluated by Mr. Market. Market value or valuation is a result after Mr. Market's comprehensive evaluation.</p><p>Of course, the market can make mistakes and even be manipulated in the short term. But in the long run, it is reliable, at least more reliable than small-scale experts, right?</p><p><b>Therefore, market value or valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation of banks.</b>From the point of view of this article, the bank management can't ignore the market value, and feel that it can report to its superiors if it manages the bank's performance well. Instead, it should be deeply aware that if the market value is so low, it must reflect some problems and can't be ignored. Now we are gratified to see that the policy authorities have also taken market value as one of the assessment contents of state-owned enterprises.</p><p><b>Can not be single attributed</b></p><p>The paper goes on to point out that since valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation given by the market, it cannot be attributed to one or two factors (that is, it cannot be explained by one or two indicators of the bank). And this single attribution method happens to be what our securities analysts used in the past.</p><p>At that time, the background was: the bank's operating conditions in all aspects were ok, and there were not many particularly negative indicators. Only one indicator was relatively negative, that is, there were more non-performing loans. Therefore, if a bank's PB is less than 1 times, such as 0.8-0.9 times, it implies that the market thinks that the bank's net assets are inflated and moisturized. The part of the discount is the hidden non-performing loans. If this part of \"hidden bad\" is exposed, then the NPL ratio of banks may reach 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf31544c23afd222183e0db6d9874999\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This method cannot be used when PB falls below 0.7 times or even lower. Because according to this method, when the PB rating is low, the calculated non-performing ratio is extremely high, and some stocks can even be as high as more than 20%... The non-performing ratio of these mainstream banks listed in China will never reach this level (at least most of them will not). It can be seen that hiding bad can no longer explain the extremely low valuation.</p><p>Therefore, this article needs to answer a core question: So why is the bank valuation so low?</p><p><b>Reasons for low valuation</b></p><p><b>This paper directly gives the point that the ability of domestic bank management to manage new risks has not been confirmed by the market.</b>Risk here does not refer to a business risk alone (such as bad loans), but<b>\"New risks\"</b>It refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model.</p><p>Many environmental changes that we have learned when we were in school (interest rate liberalization, financial internationalization, financial disintermediation, direct financial development, etc.) are really happening now. To be honest, these things happened later than expected, after all, we were learning these when we went to college 20 years ago (at that time, the US and other developed Western countries had already experienced it). However, it is disappointing that 20 years ago, we began to shout these things, and let banks practice all kinds of \"internal skills\". Today, many of our banks are still not fully prepared. This has to be said to be a pity and a very urgent task. Now the country is promoting a higher level of opening up to the outside world. If your own wings are not hard, you can't find the north even if you fly out...</p><p>Of course, this can't erase the great progress in internal strength of China's banking industry in the past ten years. However, the times are also progressing, and so are excellent overseas banks, so we can't be complacent on the existing report card.</p><p><b>In short, although our bank's current performance is still very good, its business model and management model (internal strength) are still not advanced enough, and they can't fully adapt to the new economic development environment (at least the market can't confirm the bank's ability).</b>As an executive of a large bank, the author takes this point as the main reason for explaining the low valuation of banks from the perspective of internal banks. This is very important to those of us<b>\"Outside Eyes\"</b>It was very inspiring.</p><p>The paper lists some capabilities that banks do not yet fully possess, but are urgently needed in the new environment, including:</p><p>(1) Restrict and encourage effective corporate governance capabilities, especially in terms of incentives. It is advisable to learn from overseas countries and change the existing rigid salary; (2) the ability to transform internal structures, processes and mechanisms to truly realize customer-centricity; (3) Many banks still lack international operating capabilities in response to globalization, including specific businesses such as RMB derivatives, market services, global financial services, wealth or asset management capabilities, etc. From these perspectives, we do admit that the capacity of many banks in China is indeed somewhat lacking. Although the performance is okay, if the ability doesn't keep up, there is no guarantee that the future performance will continue to be good, and sooner or later it will become a \"dinosaur\" that is about to die out in the new economic environment. Compared with overseas, of course, their banks are not all good (and uneven), but some cases make us sigh after reading them. For example, some particularly small banks, even small banks in the town, have small sparrows and complete internal organs, and their business philosophies and business models are very standardized. For example, American West Bank, which we tracked last time, is a very small bank with a very mature wealth business model. Please refer to \"The Road of Small and Medium-sized Banks to Build Characteristic Wealth Management\".</p><p>Therefore, there is indeed a gap in observing the underlying capabilities of domestic and foreign banks through these \"superficial\" figures of financial performance, which may explain our extremely low valuation. Of course, there is no need to belittle yourself. China also has a number of excellent banks.</p><p><b>Emphasizing the Theory and Practice of Market Value Management</b></p><p>This paper also mentions some thoughts on market value management. If a bank has a good market value, it will have many benefits, which in turn will promote its own development. Good market value, which in itself is a reflection of the comprehensive evaluation of the Bank. At the same time, it can increase the difficulty of being acquired, reduce the difficulty of other acquisitions, and also reduce the financing cost and difficulty. There are even real cases of high-quality banks in China that have increased their popularity in the corporate world (investors know it) because of their high market value and large increase, thus helping them to develop their businesses.</p><p>The article concludes with a few points:</p><p>(1) Market value is a comprehensive evaluation, not an evaluation of certain indicators. It is of little significance to deliberately optimize some popular indicators (such as increasing the proportion of middle income and wealth business). Instead, to improve the overall quality of banks, the whole bank works hard for the overall strength; (2) improve corporate governance and clarify the division of labor in market value management; (3) Strengthen the customs investment work and take the initiative to communicate with investors (some banks have established a normalized communication mechanism with investors and analysts, which is worth learning from); (4) Effective use of market value resources and capital operation; (5) Establish a good image of the capital market; (6) Put an end to pseudo-market value management behaviors such as stock price manipulation. Indeed, more and more banks are beginning to pay attention to these jobs.</p><p>Because, previously, that point of the paper is the ability of domestic bank management to manage new risks<b>\"Not confirmed by the market\"</b>。 That is to say, our banks don't necessarily have these capabilities, but it may also be: in fact, the capabilities are gradually gaining, but the market still doesn't know it and can't see it...</p><p>Just because these abilities are very internal abilities (so they are called \"internal strength\"), it is difficult to simply show this ability to the market with one or two indicators.</p><p>For example: I am often asked, which bank has stronger financial technology now?</p><p>This kind of question is almost impossible to answer. This ability of financial technology is a typical internal strength, and it is difficult to simply compare it.</p><p>Here is the test of the ability of market value management.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676240\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e95f8d8c314466bbcd01bdb562ed3f","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676240","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170581889","content_text":"国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险，比如不良贷款，而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。A股银行股持续处于低估状态，更令人难以接受的是，A股很多优质银行，估值比很多盈利更差的海外大型银行估值还要低，在PB-ROE框架下完全无法解释。为此，市场各方人士给出各种解释。银行估值问题还不是学术上的热门话题，仅有的少数论文也多为银行从业人员，学术界的成果还不多。本文介绍一篇论文，题为《银行市值的重要性与中国银行业估值偏低的讨论》（以下简称“该文”），作者是时任建设银行首席经济学家的黄志凌博士，于2021年1月发表于《征信》杂志（人民银行郑州培训学院主办）。该文从我国银行股业绩尚可但估值极低这一事实出发，讨论其背后的原因，以及对银行市值工作的一些思考。该文分为三部分（本文拆为四部分介绍），逻辑简练清晰，给我们呈现一个银行内部管理层的视角对低估值问题的解读。如何看待银行市值该文提出，银行市值或估值，是代表着市场对一家银行发展前景的综合认知，长期看，可以作为一个很好的评价指标，所以应该引起各方重视。银行评价一直是业内的老大难问题。因为，银行的指标涉及方方面面。商业银行的经营本质是三性平衡（盈利性、流动性、安全性），因此不能简单用盈利一个维度，还得兼顾风险或其他。平时我们做银行分析时，资产规模、盈利能力、风险控制、社会责任等各方面都会涉及，于是就很难用一两个指标来评价“谁比谁好”。针对这一问题，业内开发各种所谓的综合评价体系，其原理大致都一样：在银行的各方面挑选一些代表性指标，然后对各个指标给予一定权重，然后加权求和，得到一个综合得分（或评级）。然后用这个综合得分来评价“谁比谁好”。比如，最早的“骆驼”（CAMEL）评级、银保监会的监管评级、人民银行的金融机构评级、银行业协会的“陀螺评价体系”等，大体都是这个套路。我们团队自己，也开发过一个银行信用评价体系，也就是找到一堆我们觉得对银行信用风险比较重要的指标，赋权求和，得到评级。可参见2022年6月的报告《银行信用风险分析：框架与模型》。这一套套的评价体系，需要小范围专家人为选择指标、设置权重，因此不可能完全准确，有时候会出来一些与直观感受不符的结果。为此，可以换一个思路：不由小范围的专家来评价，而是把银行拉到市场上“溜一圈”，让市场来评价。银行自己把各种数据、信息披露出来，摆到全市场面前，由市场先生综合评价。市值或估值，就是市场先生综合评价完之后的一个结果。当然，市场短期内是会犯错的，甚至会被操纵。但长期看，是可靠的，好歹比小范围专家更可靠吧？所以，市值或估值同样是大家对银行的一种综合评价。从该文观点推导出去，银行管理层不能无视市值，觉得自己把银行业绩经营好就可以向上级汇报，而要深刻意识到，如果市值如此之低，那么肯定是反映了一些问题的，不能无视之。我们现在可喜地看到，政策当局也已经将市值作为对国企的考核内容之一。不能单一归因该文接着指出，既然估值也是市场给出的一种综合评价，那么就不能把低估值归因于一两个因素（就是不能用银行的一两个指标来解释其低估值）。而这种单一归因方法，刚好是我们证券分析师过去用的。当时的背景是：银行各方面经营情况还可以，找不到太多特别负面的指标，惟独有一个指标比较负面，就是有较多不良贷款。因此，如果一家银行PB低于1倍，比如到了0.8-0.9倍，那么就暗示着，市场认为该行的净资产是虚高的，有水分的。而该折让的部分，就是藏匿的不良贷款。如果这部分“藏匿的不良”暴露出来，那么银行的不良率可能会达到8%。这一方法在PB跌至0.7倍以下甚至更低的时候，就不能用了。因为按这个方法，在PB级低时，倒算出来的不良率极其高，有些个股甚至会高至20%以上……国内上市的这些主流银行的不良率绝对不会到这个水平（至少大部分不会）。可见，藏匿不良这个已经不能解释极低估值了。于是，该文就需要回答一个最核心的问题：那么银行估值为何如此之低？低估值的原因该文直接给出了观点：国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险（比如不良贷款），而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。很多我们上学时就已经学到过的一些环境变化（利率市场化、金融国际化、金融脱媒、直接金融发展等），现在正在真正地发生。说实话，这些事情的发生比预想的要晚，毕竟我们20年前上大学时就在学这些了（当时美国等西方发达国际已经经历过了）。但令人失望的是，20年前我们就已开始喊这些事，要让银行修炼各种“内功”，时至今日，我们的很多银行竟然依然没有完全准备好。这不得不说是一个遗憾，也是非常紧迫的任务。现在国家在推动更高水平对外开放，如果自身翅膀不硬，飞出去都找不到北……当然，这并不能抹杀我国银行业在过去十几年中，内功还是有巨大进步的。只是，时代也在进步，海外优秀银行也在进步，因此我们还不能在现有的成绩单上自满。简言之，我们的银行，虽然现在的业绩还很不错，但业务模式、管理模式（内功）依然是不够先进的，并不能完全适应新的经济发展环境（至少市场还不能确认银行能力）。作者作为大型银行高管，从银行内部的视角，将这一点作为解释银行低估值的主因。这一点对我们这些“外部的眼睛”有很大启发。该文列举了一些银行现在尚未完全具备的，但又是新环境中所急需的能力，包括：（1）制约和激励有效的公司治理能力，尤其是激励方面，宜借鉴海外，改变现有的刚性薪酬；（2）内部架构、流程和机制的变革能力，真正实现以客户为中心；（3）应对全球化的国际经营能力，包括人民币衍生品、市场服务、全球金融服务、财富或资管能力等具体业务，很多银行仍然能力欠缺。从这些角度，我们确实承认，我国很多银行的能力确实还有些欠缺。虽然业绩还可以，但如果能力不跟上，并不能保证未来业绩能继续好，早晚会成为在新经济环境中即将灭绝的“恐龙”。对比海外，他们的银行当然也不是家家都好（也是参差不齐的），但有些案例让我们看了后也心生感叹。比如一些特别小的银行，甚至是镇上的小银行，麻雀虽小、五脏具全，里面的经营理念、业务模式都非常规范。比如我们上次跟踪过的美西银行，一家很小的银行，财富业务模式却非常成熟。请参考《中小行打造特色化财富管理之路》。所以，透过财务业绩这些“表面”的数字，去观察国内外银行的底层能力，确实还有差距，这可能解释我们的极低估值。当然，也不用妄自菲薄，我国也有一批优秀的银行。重视市值管理的理论与实践该文也提了一些对市值管理的思考。一家银行如果市值好，会有很多好处，反过来促进自身发展。市值好，这本身就是对本行综合评价的一个体现。同时，能增加被收购的难度，降低收购别的难度，同时也能降低融资成本和难度。甚至，国内还有优质银行因为市值高、涨幅大，在企业界增加了知名度（股民都知道它），从而帮助其展业的真实案例。该文最后提了几点：（1）市值是综合评价，不是对某些指标的评价，刻意优化某些热门指标意义不大（比如提升中收占比、提升财富业务占比之类的），而要提升银行的整体素质，全行上下为整体实力而努力；（2）完善公司治理，明确市值管理工作的分工；（3）加强投关工作，多主动与投资者沟通（有些银行建立与投资者、分析师的常态化沟通机制，值得借鉴）；（4）有效利用市值资源，资本运作；（5）树立良好的资本市场形象；（6）杜绝操纵股价等伪市值管理行为。这些工作确实有越来越多的银行开始重视。因为，前文，论文观点是国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力“未得到市场确认”。也就是说，我们的银行并不一定没这些能力，也可能是：其实能力慢慢有了，但市场还不知道，看不出来……只因，这些能力又是很内在的能力（所以叫“内功”），很难简单用一两个指标向市场展示这种能力。举个例子：经常有人问我，现在哪家银行的金融科技比较强？这种问题就几乎没法回答。金融科技这种能力就是典型的内功，很难简单比较。这里就考验市值管理的能力了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962655338,"gmtCreate":1669772580824,"gmtModify":1676538239949,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962655338","repostId":"2287903687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287903687","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669769658,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287903687?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 08:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dollar: Will 2023 be more like 1974 or 1981?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287903687","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美元见顶会是明年重要的交易主题","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Soochow Securities believes that the shape and rhythm of this round of US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a bimodal structure. The first high has already appeared at the end of September 2022, while the second high may appear in the second quarter of 2023. The marginal improvement of the European and Chinese economies together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the US dollar. In 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Return of the King Again, What About 2023? Among the major asset classes in 2022,<b>Except for oil and gas, which fluctuated significantly due to severe supply shocks, the US Dollar Index performed strongly and steadily</b>— 2022 is once again a big year for the dollar (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea0f835d229fc591bae5944c9e77ce3\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Because of high inflation and the Fed's aggressive pace of tightening,<b>The market tends to compare the 2020s to the 1970s and early 1980s, but the performance of the US Dollar Index during the two periods is very different</b>(Figure 2), the former dollar fell more and rose less, while the latter period witnessed the biggest bull market of the dollar after the war. 2023 may usher in a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and the same scenario appeared in 1974 and 1982, so who will 2023 be more like? What is the meaning of major asset allocation behind it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7143e1745f4a843552b663861968155c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combining historical and fundamental analysis,<b>We believe that the shape and rhythm of this round of US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a bimodal structure. The first high has already appeared at the end of September 2022, while the second high may appear in the second quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>This means that the peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme in 2023. From the perspective of large asset classes,<b>Government bonds and high-grade bonds have the highest winning percentages, emerging market stocks, energy and industrial metals have the most resilience, and gold is worth playing ahead</b>； From the perspective of equity sector,<b>Information technology, raw materials, discretionary consumption, banking, finance and industrial stocks were among the top gainers, but it is doubtful whether information technology can still lead because the probability of a rapid shift in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is unlikely.</b></p><p>The fundamentals of the US dollar can be viewed from two dimensions: the US and non-US economies: In the US, the two topics that cannot be bypassed in 2023 are<b>The U.S. Recession and the Federal Reserve Stopping rate hike</b>； On the non-American side, the focus is<b>When will the recovery in Europe and China bottom out Recovery</b>。</p><p>How does the dollar trade a recession? Judging from the recession experience since 1970, the US dollar has a relatively obvious recession hedge pattern.<b>Generally speaking, the the US Dollar Index bottoms out about 2.5 months before the start of the recession, then enters an appreciation mode due to the rise of risk aversion, and peaks and falls back 2 to 5 months after the start of the recession.</b>This depends on the speed and strength of the Fed's pivot and the economic resilience of non-US economies (if the major non-US economies recover faster, the faster the dollar will fall) (as shown in Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec03737986009e84ee123b84973b762\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The recession brought about by the crisis in America's own financial system will change the hedge pattern of the dollar.</b>Typically, the recession brought by the US savings and loan crisis in 1989 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 will directly affect the security of the US dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the the US Dollar Index before the recession breaks out. With the recovery of the financial system and the spread of the recession to non-US economies, the US dollar will become a global safe haven asset.<b>However, the probability of this scenario happening in 2023 is unlikely.</b></p><p>How does the dollar trade the pivot of the Federal Reserve rate hike? There is still great uncertainty in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2023, but the suspension of rate hike in the middle of the year is a high probability event. Looking back at the history since 1974, as shown in Figure 3,<b>On average, the the US Dollar Index of the Federal Reserve kept appreciating as a whole before the last rate hike, and entered a shock after the rate hike ended (down about 1.2% in one year).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9b5cd511fa12bf6d9dbf909afee057\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The 2023 scenario could be somewhere between the 1974 and 1981 scenarios. Also faced with the choice of high inflation and recession, the U.S. government chose to protect the economy in 1974:<b>Significant interest rate cuts of more than 800bp + fiscal spending more aggressive</b>The US dollar peaked before the last rate hike, and then gradually depreciated; In the early 1980s, they chose to control inflation,<b>Federal Funds rate rose to 20% at one point in 1981+ fiscal reform of the Reagan administration (government spending cuts + tax cuts)</b>The dollar had a periodic peak after the last rate hike, but has since continued to rise in the shadow of the global recession and emerging market crisis (Latin American debt crisis).</p><p>The trend of the US dollar from 2022 to 2023 will be somewhere between the above two scenarios,<b>It is likely to present a bimodal structure, with the first peak already appearing at the end of September 2022</b>(Before the last rate hike, this one was similar to 1974)<b>。</b>From the policy point of view, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2023 will be more balanced than that in 1974 and 1980s. Faced with the risks of inflation and recession, it may choose to suspend the rate hike instead of sharply rate hike or cut interest rates. At the same time, next year, the expansion of U.S. fiscal policy will face greater constraints; From the perspective of recession-related risks, the main shocks are concentrated in the near recession and the early recession, corresponding to the first half of 2023. The Fed's persistence (not easily turning to interest rate cuts) + the decline of commodity prices will make the the US Dollar Index rise again in the short term and the pressure on emerging market economies rise sharply — —<b>A second peak in the US Dollar Index could occur in the second quarter of 2023 (when the Fed could also suspend its rate hike).</b></p><p>After the second peak, if the Fed doesn't turn further to cutting interest rates, will the US dollar have no room to fall? No, we have mentioned in previous reports that in addition to the US own economy and policies, the US dollar should also pay attention to the situation of major non-US economies, especially Europe and China- -<b>Marginal improvement in that economy of Europe and China together will be an important driver of the dollar depreciation</b>From the historical mean, this depreciation rate can generally reach 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d86d259b4433592bf5a6f887ef82db9\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The euro zone economy may show a relatively obvious improvement in the third quarter of next year.</b>After the triple impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, high inflation and rapid tightening of monetary policy, the euro zone economy is likely to enter a recession at the end of 2022 and early 2023. Next year, the negative impact of these three factors will be marginally weakened, and the latter two will be further improved, which will create conditions for the recovery of European economy in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9891fb45c2cc91d51a55f3491981fd\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme next year. What assets should we pay attention to? What we mean by the dollar peaking here is<b>the US Dollar Index Trend Returns After Second Rally</b>This often leads to the overall change of market investment logic and style.</p><p>After the peak of the US dollar, which asset class has the highest victory and the most elasticity? From historical experience, government bonds (including emerging market sovereign bonds) and investment grade bonds have the highest win rate, but in terms of elasticity<b>Emerging market stocks, crude oil and industrial metals such as copper are more attractive. Furthermore, the space for gold may be larger than the statistics of Figure 6</b>Because of the bonus of recession risk, the market for gold will start earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27051850346e235d3fdf9392f327c20b\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Which sector benefited most after the dollar peaked? From the perspective of global stock markets, the sectors with the top gains after the US dollar peaked are<b>Information technology, raw materials, non-obligatory consumer, banking finance, and industrial stocks.</b>However, there is some uncertainty about whether the information technology sector can continue to lead. A large part of its excess returns comes from the fact that monetary policy tends to turn loose quickly when facing economic headwinds since the financial crisis. This scene may be difficult to appear in 2023, while other sectors have an important logic of marginal economic recovery in addition to the policy shift.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a4be050e56bce9915ae87445169015a\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk: Under the tightening of overseas monetary policy, external demand dropped, and the spread of domestic epidemic situation exceeded market expectations. The overseas economy has entered a recession ahead of schedule, and the sharp negative growth of China's exports may arrive ahead of schedule. The repeated epidemic, strict prevention and control, which is difficult to lift in the short term and lasts for a long time, has seriously dragged down China's economy and caused the US dollar to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dollar: Will 2023 be more like 1974 or 1981?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDollar: Will 2023 be more like 1974 or 1981?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Soochow Securities believes that the shape and rhythm of this round of US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a bimodal structure. The first high has already appeared at the end of September 2022, while the second high may appear in the second quarter of 2023. The marginal improvement of the European and Chinese economies together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the US dollar. In 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Return of the King Again, What About 2023? Among the major asset classes in 2022,<b>Except for oil and gas, which fluctuated significantly due to severe supply shocks, the US Dollar Index performed strongly and steadily</b>— 2022 is once again a big year for the dollar (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea0f835d229fc591bae5944c9e77ce3\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Because of high inflation and the Fed's aggressive pace of tightening,<b>The market tends to compare the 2020s to the 1970s and early 1980s, but the performance of the US Dollar Index during the two periods is very different</b>(Figure 2), the former dollar fell more and rose less, while the latter period witnessed the biggest bull market of the dollar after the war. 2023 may usher in a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and the same scenario appeared in 1974 and 1982, so who will 2023 be more like? What is the meaning of major asset allocation behind it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7143e1745f4a843552b663861968155c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combining historical and fundamental analysis,<b>We believe that the shape and rhythm of this round of US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a bimodal structure. The first high has already appeared at the end of September 2022, while the second high may appear in the second quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>This means that the peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme in 2023. From the perspective of large asset classes,<b>Government bonds and high-grade bonds have the highest winning percentages, emerging market stocks, energy and industrial metals have the most resilience, and gold is worth playing ahead</b>； From the perspective of equity sector,<b>Information technology, raw materials, discretionary consumption, banking, finance and industrial stocks were among the top gainers, but it is doubtful whether information technology can still lead because the probability of a rapid shift in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is unlikely.</b></p><p>The fundamentals of the US dollar can be viewed from two dimensions: the US and non-US economies: In the US, the two topics that cannot be bypassed in 2023 are<b>The U.S. Recession and the Federal Reserve Stopping rate hike</b>； On the non-American side, the focus is<b>When will the recovery in Europe and China bottom out Recovery</b>。</p><p>How does the dollar trade a recession? Judging from the recession experience since 1970, the US dollar has a relatively obvious recession hedge pattern.<b>Generally speaking, the the US Dollar Index bottoms out about 2.5 months before the start of the recession, then enters an appreciation mode due to the rise of risk aversion, and peaks and falls back 2 to 5 months after the start of the recession.</b>This depends on the speed and strength of the Fed's pivot and the economic resilience of non-US economies (if the major non-US economies recover faster, the faster the dollar will fall) (as shown in Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec03737986009e84ee123b84973b762\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The recession brought about by the crisis in America's own financial system will change the hedge pattern of the dollar.</b>Typically, the recession brought by the US savings and loan crisis in 1989 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 will directly affect the security of the US dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the the US Dollar Index before the recession breaks out. With the recovery of the financial system and the spread of the recession to non-US economies, the US dollar will become a global safe haven asset.<b>However, the probability of this scenario happening in 2023 is unlikely.</b></p><p>How does the dollar trade the pivot of the Federal Reserve rate hike? There is still great uncertainty in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2023, but the suspension of rate hike in the middle of the year is a high probability event. Looking back at the history since 1974, as shown in Figure 3,<b>On average, the the US Dollar Index of the Federal Reserve kept appreciating as a whole before the last rate hike, and entered a shock after the rate hike ended (down about 1.2% in one year).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9b5cd511fa12bf6d9dbf909afee057\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The 2023 scenario could be somewhere between the 1974 and 1981 scenarios. Also faced with the choice of high inflation and recession, the U.S. government chose to protect the economy in 1974:<b>Significant interest rate cuts of more than 800bp + fiscal spending more aggressive</b>The US dollar peaked before the last rate hike, and then gradually depreciated; In the early 1980s, they chose to control inflation,<b>Federal Funds rate rose to 20% at one point in 1981+ fiscal reform of the Reagan administration (government spending cuts + tax cuts)</b>The dollar had a periodic peak after the last rate hike, but has since continued to rise in the shadow of the global recession and emerging market crisis (Latin American debt crisis).</p><p>The trend of the US dollar from 2022 to 2023 will be somewhere between the above two scenarios,<b>It is likely to present a bimodal structure, with the first peak already appearing at the end of September 2022</b>(Before the last rate hike, this one was similar to 1974)<b>。</b>From the policy point of view, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2023 will be more balanced than that in 1974 and 1980s. Faced with the risks of inflation and recession, it may choose to suspend the rate hike instead of sharply rate hike or cut interest rates. At the same time, next year, the expansion of U.S. fiscal policy will face greater constraints; From the perspective of recession-related risks, the main shocks are concentrated in the near recession and the early recession, corresponding to the first half of 2023. The Fed's persistence (not easily turning to interest rate cuts) + the decline of commodity prices will make the the US Dollar Index rise again in the short term and the pressure on emerging market economies rise sharply — —<b>A second peak in the US Dollar Index could occur in the second quarter of 2023 (when the Fed could also suspend its rate hike).</b></p><p>After the second peak, if the Fed doesn't turn further to cutting interest rates, will the US dollar have no room to fall? No, we have mentioned in previous reports that in addition to the US own economy and policies, the US dollar should also pay attention to the situation of major non-US economies, especially Europe and China- -<b>Marginal improvement in that economy of Europe and China together will be an important driver of the dollar depreciation</b>From the historical mean, this depreciation rate can generally reach 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d86d259b4433592bf5a6f887ef82db9\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The euro zone economy may show a relatively obvious improvement in the third quarter of next year.</b>After the triple impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, high inflation and rapid tightening of monetary policy, the euro zone economy is likely to enter a recession at the end of 2022 and early 2023. Next year, the negative impact of these three factors will be marginally weakened, and the latter two will be further improved, which will create conditions for the recovery of European economy in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9891fb45c2cc91d51a55f3491981fd\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme next year. What assets should we pay attention to? What we mean by the dollar peaking here is<b>the US Dollar Index Trend Returns After Second Rally</b>This often leads to the overall change of market investment logic and style.</p><p>After the peak of the US dollar, which asset class has the highest victory and the most elasticity? From historical experience, government bonds (including emerging market sovereign bonds) and investment grade bonds have the highest win rate, but in terms of elasticity<b>Emerging market stocks, crude oil and industrial metals such as copper are more attractive. Furthermore, the space for gold may be larger than the statistics of Figure 6</b>Because of the bonus of recession risk, the market for gold will start earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27051850346e235d3fdf9392f327c20b\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Which sector benefited most after the dollar peaked? From the perspective of global stock markets, the sectors with the top gains after the US dollar peaked are<b>Information technology, raw materials, non-obligatory consumer, banking finance, and industrial stocks.</b>However, there is some uncertainty about whether the information technology sector can continue to lead. A large part of its excess returns comes from the fact that monetary policy tends to turn loose quickly when facing economic headwinds since the financial crisis. This scene may be difficult to appear in 2023, while other sectors have an important logic of marginal economic recovery in addition to the policy shift.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a4be050e56bce9915ae87445169015a\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk: Under the tightening of overseas monetary policy, external demand dropped, and the spread of domestic epidemic situation exceeded market expectations. The overseas economy has entered a recession ahead of schedule, and the sharp negative growth of China's exports may arrive ahead of schedule. The repeated epidemic, strict prevention and control, which is difficult to lift in the short term and lasts for a long time, has seriously dragged down China's economy and caused the US dollar to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/565763\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a477963a13237335d75caf26836fbe2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/565763","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2287903687","content_text":"东吴证券认为本轮美元的形态和节奏会介于1974和1981年之间、呈现双峰结构，第一个高点在2022年9月底已经出现，而第二个高点可能会出现在2023年第二季度。欧洲和中国经济一起边际改善将会是美元贬值的重要推手。2022年，美元指数再次王者归来，2023年呢？2022年在大类资产中，除了受到严重供给冲击而大幅波动的油气外，美元指数的表现强而且稳——2022年再次成为美元大年（图1）。由于高通胀和美联储激进的紧缩步伐，市场往往会把2020s比作1970s和1980s初，但是两个时期美元指数的表现大相径庭（图2），前者美元跌多涨少，后一段时间则见证了战后美元最大的牛市。2023年可能迎来美联储货币政策的转向，而同样的场景也在1974年和1982年出现，那么2023年会更像谁？背后有怎样的大类资产配置含义？结合历史和基本面的分析，我们认为本轮美元的形态和节奏会介于1974和1981年之间、呈现双峰结构，第一个高点在2022年9月底已经出现，而第二个高点可能会出现在2023年第二季度。这意味着美元见顶会是2023年重要的交易主题，从大类资产配上看，政府债券和高等级债券的胜率最高，新兴市场股市、能源和工业金属的弹性最大，此外黄金也值得提前布局；从权益板块上看，信息技术、原材料、非必选消费、银行金融和工业股收益居前，不过由于美联储货币政策迅速转向的概率不大，信息技术是否还能领跑存疑。美元的基本面可以从美国和非美经济体两个维度来看：美国方面，2023年绕不过去的两个话题是美国衰退和美联储停止加息；非美方面，重点关注的则是欧洲和中国的复苏何时见底复苏。美元如何交易衰退？从1970年以来的衰退经历来看，美元具有较为明显的衰退避险模式，一般而言衰退开始前约2.5个月美元指数触底，而后由于避险情绪升温进入升值模式，衰退开启后2至5个月触顶回落，这取决于美联储转向的速度、力度以及非美经济体的经济韧性（如果主要非美经济体复苏越快，美元回落也越快）（如表1）。值得注意的是，美国自身金融体系爆发危机带来的衰退会使得美元的避险模式改变。典型的是1989年美国储贷危机和2007年次贷危机带来的衰退，美国金融体系的动荡会直接影响美元的安全性，这会导致在衰退爆发前美元指数贬值，而随着金融体系恢复以及衰退向非美经济体扩散，美元又会成为全球的避险资产。不过这一场景在2023年发生的概率不大。美元如何交易美联储加息的转向？市场对于2023年美联储是否会降息尚存在较大的不确定性，但是年中暂停加息是大概率事件。回顾1974年以来的历史，如图3所示，从平均水平来看，美联储最后一次加息前美元指数整体保持升值，加息结束后进入震荡（1年内约跌1.2%）。2023年的情况可能介于1974年和1981年两种情形之间。同样面对高通胀和衰退的抉择，1974年美国政府选择保经济：大幅降息超过800bp+财政支出更加积极，美元在最后一次加息前就已经见顶，随后逐步进入贬值；1980s初则选择了控通胀，联邦基金利率在1981年一度上涨至20%+里根政府财政改革（削减政府支出+减税），美元在最后一次加息后出现阶段性顶部，不过此后在全球经济衰退和新兴市场危机（拉美债务危机）的阴影下继续走高。2022年至2023年的美元走势会介于以上两种情形之间，很可能呈现双峰结构，第一峰在2022年9月底已经出现（在最后一次加息前，这个和1974年类似）。从政策上看，2023年美联储的货币政策较1974年和1980s会更加均衡，面对通胀和衰退的风险可能会选择暂停加息，而非大幅加息或者降息，同时明年美国财政政策扩大支出面临较大的约束；从衰退相关的风险来看，主要的冲击集中在临近衰退和衰退前期，对应的是2023年上半年，美联储的坚持（不轻易转向降息）+商品价格下滑，会使得短期内美元指数再次上冲、新兴市场经济体压力骤升——美元指数的第二峰可能出现在2023年第二季度（彼时美联储也可能暂停加息）。第二峰之后，如果美联储不进一步转向降息，美元是不是就没有下跌空间了？并不是，我们在之前的报告中曾经提及，美元除了要看美国自身的经济和政策外，还要注意主要非美经济体的情况，尤其是欧洲和中国——欧洲和中国经济一起边际改善将会是美元贬值的重要推手，从历史均值测算，这个贬值幅度一般能达6%。欧元区经济可能在明年第三季度出现比较明显的改善。在经过2022年俄乌冲突、高通胀和货币政策急速收紧的三重冲击后，欧元区经济大概率在2022年底和2023年初进入衰退状态，明年这三大因素的负面影响都会边际减弱、后两者则进一步改善，这会为下半年欧洲经济的复苏创造条件。美元见顶会是明年重要的交易主题，应该关注什么资产？我们在这说的美元见顶指的是美元指数第二次冲高后趋势性回落，这往往会导致市场投资逻辑和风格整体性改变。美元见顶后，哪个大类资产胜利最高、弹性最大？从历史经验看，政府债券（含新兴市场主权债）和投资级债券胜率最高，但是弹性上新兴市场股市、原油和工业金属（例如铜）更加具有吸引力。此外，黄金的空间可能比图6统计的更大，因为有经济衰退风险的加成，黄金的行情会启动得更早。美元见顶之后，哪个板块最受益？从全球股市来看，美元见顶之后收益居前的板块是信息技术、原材料、非必选消费、银行金融和工业股。不过信息技术板块能否继续领跑存在一定的不确定性，其超额收益背后有很大一部分来自于金融危机以来货币政策在面临经济逆风时往往会快速转向宽松，这一幕可能在2023年难以出现，而其他板块在政策转向之外，还有经济边际复苏的重要逻辑。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期。海外经济提前进入衰退，我国出口大幅负增长可能提前到来。疫情反复，严格防控短期难以解除、持续时间拉长，严重拖累中国经济、导致美元冲高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962379639,"gmtCreate":1669730039621,"gmtModify":1676538231155,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962379639","repostId":"2287576021","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2287576021","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669715606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287576021?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 17:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Can't invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo shares instead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287576021","media":"投资界","summary":"“最近VC朋友聊得最多的话题，大概就是Temu了。”聊到Temu——一个拼多多刚上线的出海项目，孟岩的话匣子打开了。令人惊讶的是，拼多多把 Temu 摆在首要位置。他透露，其实不少同行都在打听进入Temu的机会，不过目前拼多多尚未开放融资机会。”Temu”，一个拼多多自创的新词，母公司给予了它拿下海外市场的愿景。今年9月1日，Temu正式面世，首站进军北美。于是，有趣的一幕发生了：投不进Temu，VC直接加仓了拼多多的股票。","content":"<p><html><body><figure><img h=\"234\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/784/w550h234/20221129/e639-b0e59e9c237d54263e536d87b829f0e9.jpg\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure></p><p>\"Copy from China\".</p><p>Author I Wenjing Yang</p><p>\"The topic that VC friends talk about most recently is probably Temu,\" Meng Yan said.</p><p>She once worked for a very leading VC institution in China, and is currently in charge of a new fund focusing on consumer technology. Going to sea is one of the key directions that Meng Yan and his team focus on. I stayed in Shenzhen for a week on this business trip, and talked intensely about a wave of sea projects.</p><p>Talking about Temu – a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Meng Yan's chatbox opened in the just-launched sea project. In September this year, Temu quietly went online in North America, swept all the way under the leadership of Huang Zheng's junior sister Abu, and quickly topped the list of free shopping applications in APPstore in the United States. Last night (November 28th), Pinduoduo released its latest financial report, with a single-quarter net profit exceeding 12 billion yuan. Surprisingly, Pinduoduo puts Temu at the top of the list.</p><p>\"This kind of project is exactly what we want to invest in.\" Similar to Meng Yan, Li Li has been seeing the sea track recently and has been following Temu for some time. He revealed that in fact, many peers are asking about the opportunity to enter Temu, but Pinduoduo has not yet opened financing opportunities.</p><p>Li Li sighed, \"The popularity of Temu makes us feel more deeply the broad prospects of going to sea.\"</p><p><strong>Projects that VC can't invest in</strong></p><p>A few days ago, Meng Yan's team just finished the research of several big Internet companies and drew a preliminary conclusion: Temu can definitely do it.</p><p>It starts with the team's research on Pinduoduo. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the primary and secondary markets has been inverted. Although the consumption track has cooled down, the valuation of many brands is still inflated. Compared with the valuation of start-up companies, which is billions at every turn, Meng Yan began to look for some cheap opportunities in the secondary market, so Pinduoduo entered the team's vision.</p><p>After analyzing several big Internet companies, Meng Yan found that Ali's market value has been falling,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>As the broader market rose and fell, it was relatively stable, and only Pinduoduo was still growing against the trend.</p><p>As last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its third quarter 2022 earnings results. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%; The net profit attributable to common shareholders was 10.59 billion yuan, up 546% year-on-year. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that Pinduoduo has maintained positive profit growth.</p><p><figure><img h=\"262\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/12/w550h262/20221129/0aa9-31ac2e467598b721578dcdc04c904caa.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Pinduoduo third quarter financial report)</h2></figure>As for the logic behind it, Meng Yan made some analysis: during the market downturn, the platform focusing on cost performance was stronger. \"In layman's terms, the less money you have, the more stable Pinduoduo will be\". When the European and American economies were in a downturn, Pinduoduo launched Temu, a sea project, which was equivalent to \"copying\" the operating mode of the parent company, and it was even more timely.</p><p>\"Temu\", a new word created by Pinduoduo, the parent company gave it the vision of winning overseas markets. The name is cleverly made. On Temu's official download interface, the new vocabulary is accompanied by an explanation: \"Team Up, Price Down\". The Chinese translation is roughly: \"Buy in a group, it's cheaper\". A Pinduoduo style arises spontaneously.</p><p><figure><img h=\"349\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/99/w550h349/20221129/4343-a345ee4be43ad42a87d3b0f05ffcb334.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>On September 1st this year, Temu was officially launched, and its first stop entered North America. Although due to foreign legal risks, \"cutting a knife\" failed to go to sea together, Temu still sacrificed the most familiar game: pulling a user and rewarding 20 dollars. It can be said that the \"viral transmission\" of the main business is perfectly played.</p><p>In addition, the price of commodities is generally lower than that of its peers, and the category also meets the daily shopping needs of most North American people. Temu is on fire. In the eyes of many investors, Temu has huge growth potential-that piece is SHEIN,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Waiting for the land divided by wolves to welcome spoilers.</p><p>\"When domestic business enters a more comfortable area, Pinduoduo can pull out and concentrate all key forces to impact overseas markets.\" Meng Yan revealed that, as far as he knows, Huang Zheng, Abu and other Pinduoduo veterans are sitting in person, which is enough to show that they attach importance to the whole new project.</p><p>\"Now VC friends with US dollar background pay special attention to Temu.\" Once upon a time, Pinduoduo brought rich returns to many domestic VC/PE institutions, which directly enabled a group of young investors to realize the myth of wealth creation. Now, the overseas version of \"Pinduoduo\" is here, and the story is even more enticing.</p><p>Meng Yan did not hide that the team had established contact with Temu through various channels to communicate financing needs. However, after some contact, I learned that although Temu has always needed to burn money in the early stage, Pinduoduo has sufficient cash flow and has no plan to spin off Temu. This business is not intended to be financed at present, and investors in the primary market can't get a share if they want to invest. \"If financing is opened, this must be a squeezed-out project\".</p><p>The VC circle is eyeing it, and everyone doesn't want to miss this heavyweight project.</p><p>So, an interesting scene happened: if you can't invest in Temu, VC directly increased your position in Pinduoduo stock.</p><p>Junior Sister Huang Zheng at the helm, Temu kills all sides</p><p><strong>Copy a Pinduoduo in the United States</strong></p><p>Who exactly is running the Temu project?</p><p>The name Abu surfaced. She is a heavyweight existence in Pinduoduo. Huang Zheng's fellow junior sister was formerly named Gu Pingping, and she has been following Huang Zheng since the beginning of her business. For many years, Abu has rarely appeared in the public eye, but she is at the helm of Duoduo Grocery Purchase, and she is also the one who operates the \"game spelling\" mode that made Pinduoduo popular.</p><p>A former employee of Pinduoduo revealed, \"Abu is equivalent to an internal CEO, and her administration, technology and operation are all under her control.\"</p><p><div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div>Abu took action, and Temu's importance is self-evident. In order to fight a bloody path in North America, Pinduoduo has invested no less in Temu than buying many groceries. It is reported that Pinduoduo had planned to invest 1 billion in Temu in the first month, trying to establish the brand image of \"Team up, Price down\" in the minds of users.</p><p>More directly, the investor relations page of Pinduoduo launched a new domain name pddholdings.com (\"Pinduoduo Holdings\") and changed the company's introduction to, \"A multinational business group that owns and operates a series of businesses, including Temu, a North American consumer e-commerce market, and Pinduoduo, a head social commerce platform\". In this introduction, Temu even took precedence over the main business \"Pinduoduo\" in word order.</p><p><figure><img h=\"268\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/18/w550h268/20221129/1618-d2137ef68b19853b905bb022f413e5c0.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Introduction to Pinduoduo Investor Relations Network)</h2></figure>Across the ocean, Temu lived up to the hype. With \"fission-style new attraction\", less than a month after its launch, Temu's single-day downloads surpassed Amazon and SHEIN, and topped the list of free shopping apps in APPstore in the United States.</p><p>Grab employees, suppliers and markets, and anxiety has spread to the competitors. Someone on the social platform revealed that Temu poached people at a salary 60% higher than SHEIN's. Considering that it was inconvenient for employees who changed jobs to move, Temu directly moved its office to the subway station two stations away from SHEIN.</p><p>In addition to grabbing people with high salaries, Temu also held suppliers with huge single dividends. Some sellers said, \"I worked in Temu for three months, and I stabilized 1,000 orders a day\". According to rumors, SHEIN began to ask merchants to \"choose one of the two\", and was even exposed to the remarks that \"once employees change jobs to Temu, they will never be hired\", but this information has not been confirmed at present.</p><p>On the consumer side, Temu is seizing the market at a low price. The price of summer women's clothing on the platform is mostly below $20, the price of necklaces and rings is in the range of $5-10, and some small items are even as low as $1. A practitioner who exports on Amazon platform spit that Temu's retail price is cheaper than their purchase price.</p><p><figure><img h=\"491\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/241/w550h491/20221129/2b5d-e32cc133d891259079fd9bfdcb0a6c41.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>The secondary market is also researching Temu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">Dongxing Securities</a>Previously, Temu adopted a self-operated model, where sellers were responsible for supply, and the platform mastered the pricing power of commodities, and asked sellers to submit the reserve price of products. Relying on the supply chain foundation laid by its main business in China, Temu was able to keep the price to the lowest, which once caused netizens to exclaim: \"Directly rectify the American e-commerce industry!\"</p><p>At present, some media have released a set of data: Temu's average daily GMV has exceeded 1.5 million USD (about 10 million RMB), with nearly 30,000 settled merchants and 300,000-400,000 SKUs, covering 24 first-level categories. If the data is true, then Temu's monthly GMV has exceeded 300 million RMB, that is to say, in less than two months, Temu has surpassed the volume of 90% players in cross-border e-commerce in one year.</p><p>A cross-border platform that has only been online for two months has developed so rapidly. According to the previous assumption, Temu's GMV target is 300-500 million USD before the end of the year, and it will reach a target of 3 billion USD in the next year, which is equivalent to 1/10 of SHEIN's current volume.</p><p>\"Temu proves such a logic: even in developed countries, rich people still only account for a small part, and foreign countries also have sinking markets. The logic of Pinduoduo in China may still be applicable.\" After reading Temu's data, a VC investor in Shanghai bluntly said.</p><p>\"Now is the best time to enter overseas markets.\" After analyzing Temu, Meng Yan said frankly, \"From the perspective of the general environment, during the economic downturn, people's demand for 'cost performance' is even greater. In addition, the inflation in the United States in the past two years has objectively given platforms such as Temu a looser room to rise.\"</p><p><strong>When Internet bosses collectively sit in town</strong></p><p><strong>The big era of going out to sea is coming</strong></p><p>\"In addition to Huang Zheng, Ali Jiang Fan, ByteDance Zhang Yiming and JD.COM Liu Qiangdong all went overseas to look for opportunities.\" A VC close to big Internet companies lamented that almost everyone firmly believed that it was time for China to rise more global Internet platforms.</p><p>As analyzed by Meng Yan, the domestic business of several big Internet companies is growing steadily. The result of the previous melee community group purchase has been decided, and the domestic competition can no longer \"roll\" to a new height, but foreign countries are still a blue ocean full of possibilities. Players who have experienced hundreds of battles have started the journey of \"Copy from China\".</p><p>Last year, Jiang Fan, the former president of Taobao and Tmall, was sent to Southeast Asia to take charge of overseas businesses including Lazada. Prior to this, Lazada changed its CEO many times, but no general has yet sat in charge. In Ali's organizational structure adjustment and Zhang Yong's internal letter, the overseas business represented by Jiang Fan was mentioned for the first time as comparable to retail. It is understood that Jiang Fan may go to Europe next.</p><p>On the ByteDance side, Meng Yan revealed, \"This year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>GMV should be able to reach 2 trillion, and the ceiling is visible to the naked eye. Several core executives, including Zhang Yiming, are actively exploring overseas markets. \" Previously, Byte's overseas business TikTok has set a goal: the number of daily active users worldwide will exceed 1.05 billion by the end of 2022. In addition, Byte recently launched lfYooou, a cross-border independent station specializing in selling women's clothing.</p><p>\"But at present, TikTok is still the focus,\" the above-mentioned investors revealed. \"They feel that the Southeast Asian market is small, and the next part of the focus is live e-commerce in Europe and America.\"</p><p>Nowadays, the overseas war has started, and the heroes are competing for deer. Wu Bin, located in a major Internet manufacturer in Shanghai, mentioned, \"Recently, the feeling is getting stronger and stronger. In the near future, more and more Chinese companies will go to sea. Platforms such as TikTok, SHEIN and Temu have begun to challenge the system built by foreign giants.\"</p><p>In fact, this wave of going to sea did not appear overnight. China's new economy has experienced more than 20 years of development, and formed a unique Internet model. \"These models can be moved overseas, such as successful e-commerce, take-out, fresh food and other projects in China.\" Meng Yan introduced.</p><p>Learning from China's well-developed Internet entrepreneurial model, coupled with local localization innovation, is \"Copy from China\", and these models will become new increments overseas, creating a new industrial system, which has also attracted the attention of a number of domestic VCs.</p><p>\"Recently, we have been tracking their dynamics, and we often chat with these giants to find new companies that will grow up in their ecology.\" Meng Yan said that now that new platforms such as TikTok and Temu are pouring out, there will be room for new brands to grow, which is the same logic as Tik Tok giving birth to a number of new brands in China.</p><p>In addition, a domestic head VC institution has also set up a special investment team, focusing on the \"Copy from China\" project. Most mainstream investment institutions, such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse, Gaorong Capital, IDG Capital and GGV GGV Capital, have also regarded going to sea and globalization as an important direction of institutional development in recent years.</p><p>This is a golden field for Chinese VCs-after all, after experiencing the era of Chinese model innovation, domestic investors can explore projects earlier and predict the development space and potential risks of enterprises in advance. The myth of venture capital returns of the past two decades may be taking root in a foreign country.</p><p>(Meng Yan, Li Li and Wu Bin are pseudonyms in the article)</p><p><div></div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can't invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo shares instead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan't invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo shares instead\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-29 17:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><figure><img h=\"234\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/784/w550h234/20221129/e639-b0e59e9c237d54263e536d87b829f0e9.jpg\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure></p><p>\"Copy from China\".</p><p>Author I Wenjing Yang</p><p>\"The topic that VC friends talk about most recently is probably Temu,\" Meng Yan said.</p><p>She once worked for a very leading VC institution in China, and is currently in charge of a new fund focusing on consumer technology. Going to sea is one of the key directions that Meng Yan and his team focus on. I stayed in Shenzhen for a week on this business trip, and talked intensely about a wave of sea projects.</p><p>Talking about Temu – a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Meng Yan's chatbox opened in the just-launched sea project. In September this year, Temu quietly went online in North America, swept all the way under the leadership of Huang Zheng's junior sister Abu, and quickly topped the list of free shopping applications in APPstore in the United States. Last night (November 28th), Pinduoduo released its latest financial report, with a single-quarter net profit exceeding 12 billion yuan. Surprisingly, Pinduoduo puts Temu at the top of the list.</p><p>\"This kind of project is exactly what we want to invest in.\" Similar to Meng Yan, Li Li has been seeing the sea track recently and has been following Temu for some time. He revealed that in fact, many peers are asking about the opportunity to enter Temu, but Pinduoduo has not yet opened financing opportunities.</p><p>Li Li sighed, \"The popularity of Temu makes us feel more deeply the broad prospects of going to sea.\"</p><p><strong>Projects that VC can't invest in</strong></p><p>A few days ago, Meng Yan's team just finished the research of several big Internet companies and drew a preliminary conclusion: Temu can definitely do it.</p><p>It starts with the team's research on Pinduoduo. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the primary and secondary markets has been inverted. Although the consumption track has cooled down, the valuation of many brands is still inflated. Compared with the valuation of start-up companies, which is billions at every turn, Meng Yan began to look for some cheap opportunities in the secondary market, so Pinduoduo entered the team's vision.</p><p>After analyzing several big Internet companies, Meng Yan found that Ali's market value has been falling,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>As the broader market rose and fell, it was relatively stable, and only Pinduoduo was still growing against the trend.</p><p>As last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its third quarter 2022 earnings results. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%; The net profit attributable to common shareholders was 10.59 billion yuan, up 546% year-on-year. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that Pinduoduo has maintained positive profit growth.</p><p><figure><img h=\"262\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/12/w550h262/20221129/0aa9-31ac2e467598b721578dcdc04c904caa.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Pinduoduo third quarter financial report)</h2></figure>As for the logic behind it, Meng Yan made some analysis: during the market downturn, the platform focusing on cost performance was stronger. \"In layman's terms, the less money you have, the more stable Pinduoduo will be\". When the European and American economies were in a downturn, Pinduoduo launched Temu, a sea project, which was equivalent to \"copying\" the operating mode of the parent company, and it was even more timely.</p><p>\"Temu\", a new word created by Pinduoduo, the parent company gave it the vision of winning overseas markets. The name is cleverly made. On Temu's official download interface, the new vocabulary is accompanied by an explanation: \"Team Up, Price Down\". The Chinese translation is roughly: \"Buy in a group, it's cheaper\". A Pinduoduo style arises spontaneously.</p><p><figure><img h=\"349\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/99/w550h349/20221129/4343-a345ee4be43ad42a87d3b0f05ffcb334.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>On September 1st this year, Temu was officially launched, and its first stop entered North America. Although due to foreign legal risks, \"cutting a knife\" failed to go to sea together, Temu still sacrificed the most familiar game: pulling a user and rewarding 20 dollars. It can be said that the \"viral transmission\" of the main business is perfectly played.</p><p>In addition, the price of commodities is generally lower than that of its peers, and the category also meets the daily shopping needs of most North American people. Temu is on fire. In the eyes of many investors, Temu has huge growth potential-that piece is SHEIN,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Waiting for the land divided by wolves to welcome spoilers.</p><p>\"When domestic business enters a more comfortable area, Pinduoduo can pull out and concentrate all key forces to impact overseas markets.\" Meng Yan revealed that, as far as he knows, Huang Zheng, Abu and other Pinduoduo veterans are sitting in person, which is enough to show that they attach importance to the whole new project.</p><p>\"Now VC friends with US dollar background pay special attention to Temu.\" Once upon a time, Pinduoduo brought rich returns to many domestic VC/PE institutions, which directly enabled a group of young investors to realize the myth of wealth creation. Now, the overseas version of \"Pinduoduo\" is here, and the story is even more enticing.</p><p>Meng Yan did not hide that the team had established contact with Temu through various channels to communicate financing needs. However, after some contact, I learned that although Temu has always needed to burn money in the early stage, Pinduoduo has sufficient cash flow and has no plan to spin off Temu. This business is not intended to be financed at present, and investors in the primary market can't get a share if they want to invest. \"If financing is opened, this must be a squeezed-out project\".</p><p>The VC circle is eyeing it, and everyone doesn't want to miss this heavyweight project.</p><p>So, an interesting scene happened: if you can't invest in Temu, VC directly increased your position in Pinduoduo stock.</p><p>Junior Sister Huang Zheng at the helm, Temu kills all sides</p><p><strong>Copy a Pinduoduo in the United States</strong></p><p>Who exactly is running the Temu project?</p><p>The name Abu surfaced. She is a heavyweight existence in Pinduoduo. Huang Zheng's fellow junior sister was formerly named Gu Pingping, and she has been following Huang Zheng since the beginning of her business. For many years, Abu has rarely appeared in the public eye, but she is at the helm of Duoduo Grocery Purchase, and she is also the one who operates the \"game spelling\" mode that made Pinduoduo popular.</p><p>A former employee of Pinduoduo revealed, \"Abu is equivalent to an internal CEO, and her administration, technology and operation are all under her control.\"</p><p><div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div>Abu took action, and Temu's importance is self-evident. In order to fight a bloody path in North America, Pinduoduo has invested no less in Temu than buying many groceries. It is reported that Pinduoduo had planned to invest 1 billion in Temu in the first month, trying to establish the brand image of \"Team up, Price down\" in the minds of users.</p><p>More directly, the investor relations page of Pinduoduo launched a new domain name pddholdings.com (\"Pinduoduo Holdings\") and changed the company's introduction to, \"A multinational business group that owns and operates a series of businesses, including Temu, a North American consumer e-commerce market, and Pinduoduo, a head social commerce platform\". In this introduction, Temu even took precedence over the main business \"Pinduoduo\" in word order.</p><p><figure><img h=\"268\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/18/w550h268/20221129/1618-d2137ef68b19853b905bb022f413e5c0.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Introduction to Pinduoduo Investor Relations Network)</h2></figure>Across the ocean, Temu lived up to the hype. With \"fission-style new attraction\", less than a month after its launch, Temu's single-day downloads surpassed Amazon and SHEIN, and topped the list of free shopping apps in APPstore in the United States.</p><p>Grab employees, suppliers and markets, and anxiety has spread to the competitors. Someone on the social platform revealed that Temu poached people at a salary 60% higher than SHEIN's. Considering that it was inconvenient for employees who changed jobs to move, Temu directly moved its office to the subway station two stations away from SHEIN.</p><p>In addition to grabbing people with high salaries, Temu also held suppliers with huge single dividends. Some sellers said, \"I worked in Temu for three months, and I stabilized 1,000 orders a day\". According to rumors, SHEIN began to ask merchants to \"choose one of the two\", and was even exposed to the remarks that \"once employees change jobs to Temu, they will never be hired\", but this information has not been confirmed at present.</p><p>On the consumer side, Temu is seizing the market at a low price. The price of summer women's clothing on the platform is mostly below $20, the price of necklaces and rings is in the range of $5-10, and some small items are even as low as $1. A practitioner who exports on Amazon platform spit that Temu's retail price is cheaper than their purchase price.</p><p><figure><img h=\"491\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/241/w550h491/20221129/2b5d-e32cc133d891259079fd9bfdcb0a6c41.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>The secondary market is also researching Temu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">Dongxing Securities</a>Previously, Temu adopted a self-operated model, where sellers were responsible for supply, and the platform mastered the pricing power of commodities, and asked sellers to submit the reserve price of products. Relying on the supply chain foundation laid by its main business in China, Temu was able to keep the price to the lowest, which once caused netizens to exclaim: \"Directly rectify the American e-commerce industry!\"</p><p>At present, some media have released a set of data: Temu's average daily GMV has exceeded 1.5 million USD (about 10 million RMB), with nearly 30,000 settled merchants and 300,000-400,000 SKUs, covering 24 first-level categories. If the data is true, then Temu's monthly GMV has exceeded 300 million RMB, that is to say, in less than two months, Temu has surpassed the volume of 90% players in cross-border e-commerce in one year.</p><p>A cross-border platform that has only been online for two months has developed so rapidly. According to the previous assumption, Temu's GMV target is 300-500 million USD before the end of the year, and it will reach a target of 3 billion USD in the next year, which is equivalent to 1/10 of SHEIN's current volume.</p><p>\"Temu proves such a logic: even in developed countries, rich people still only account for a small part, and foreign countries also have sinking markets. The logic of Pinduoduo in China may still be applicable.\" After reading Temu's data, a VC investor in Shanghai bluntly said.</p><p>\"Now is the best time to enter overseas markets.\" After analyzing Temu, Meng Yan said frankly, \"From the perspective of the general environment, during the economic downturn, people's demand for 'cost performance' is even greater. In addition, the inflation in the United States in the past two years has objectively given platforms such as Temu a looser room to rise.\"</p><p><strong>When Internet bosses collectively sit in town</strong></p><p><strong>The big era of going out to sea is coming</strong></p><p>\"In addition to Huang Zheng, Ali Jiang Fan, ByteDance Zhang Yiming and JD.COM Liu Qiangdong all went overseas to look for opportunities.\" A VC close to big Internet companies lamented that almost everyone firmly believed that it was time for China to rise more global Internet platforms.</p><p>As analyzed by Meng Yan, the domestic business of several big Internet companies is growing steadily. The result of the previous melee community group purchase has been decided, and the domestic competition can no longer \"roll\" to a new height, but foreign countries are still a blue ocean full of possibilities. Players who have experienced hundreds of battles have started the journey of \"Copy from China\".</p><p>Last year, Jiang Fan, the former president of Taobao and Tmall, was sent to Southeast Asia to take charge of overseas businesses including Lazada. Prior to this, Lazada changed its CEO many times, but no general has yet sat in charge. In Ali's organizational structure adjustment and Zhang Yong's internal letter, the overseas business represented by Jiang Fan was mentioned for the first time as comparable to retail. It is understood that Jiang Fan may go to Europe next.</p><p>On the ByteDance side, Meng Yan revealed, \"This year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>GMV should be able to reach 2 trillion, and the ceiling is visible to the naked eye. Several core executives, including Zhang Yiming, are actively exploring overseas markets. \" Previously, Byte's overseas business TikTok has set a goal: the number of daily active users worldwide will exceed 1.05 billion by the end of 2022. In addition, Byte recently launched lfYooou, a cross-border independent station specializing in selling women's clothing.</p><p>\"But at present, TikTok is still the focus,\" the above-mentioned investors revealed. \"They feel that the Southeast Asian market is small, and the next part of the focus is live e-commerce in Europe and America.\"</p><p>Nowadays, the overseas war has started, and the heroes are competing for deer. Wu Bin, located in a major Internet manufacturer in Shanghai, mentioned, \"Recently, the feeling is getting stronger and stronger. In the near future, more and more Chinese companies will go to sea. Platforms such as TikTok, SHEIN and Temu have begun to challenge the system built by foreign giants.\"</p><p>In fact, this wave of going to sea did not appear overnight. China's new economy has experienced more than 20 years of development, and formed a unique Internet model. \"These models can be moved overseas, such as successful e-commerce, take-out, fresh food and other projects in China.\" Meng Yan introduced.</p><p>Learning from China's well-developed Internet entrepreneurial model, coupled with local localization innovation, is \"Copy from China\", and these models will become new increments overseas, creating a new industrial system, which has also attracted the attention of a number of domestic VCs.</p><p>\"Recently, we have been tracking their dynamics, and we often chat with these giants to find new companies that will grow up in their ecology.\" Meng Yan said that now that new platforms such as TikTok and Temu are pouring out, there will be room for new brands to grow, which is the same logic as Tik Tok giving birth to a number of new brands in China.</p><p>In addition, a domestic head VC institution has also set up a special investment team, focusing on the \"Copy from China\" project. Most mainstream investment institutions, such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse, Gaorong Capital, IDG Capital and GGV GGV Capital, have also regarded going to sea and globalization as an important direction of institutional development in recent years.</p><p>This is a golden field for Chinese VCs-after all, after experiencing the era of Chinese model innovation, domestic investors can explore projects earlier and predict the development space and potential risks of enterprises in advance. The myth of venture capital returns of the past two decades may be taking root in a foreign country.</p><p>(Meng Yan, Li Li and Wu Bin are pseudonyms in the article)</p><p><div></div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-11-29/detail-imqmmthc6438488.d.html?vt=4\">投资界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/667/w400h267/20221129/0e0e-ecfa3dd00d44bed384baf5ae1ef60c51.jpg/w120h90l50t1d40.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","BK4558":"双十一","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","VC":"伟世通","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","PDD":"拼多多","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0757428866.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AE\" (USD) ACC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU1815336091.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-11-29/detail-imqmmthc6438488.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287576021","content_text":"“Copy from China”。\n作者 I 杨文静\n“最近VC朋友聊得最多的话题，大概就是Temu了。”孟岩说。\n她曾任职于国内一家非常头部VC机构，目前执掌一家专注消费科技方向的新基金。出海，便是孟岩和团队重点关注的方向之一。这次出差深圳待了一周，密集聊了一波出海项目。\n聊到Temu——一个拼多多刚上线的出海项目，孟岩的话匣子打开了。今年9月，Temu悄悄上线北美，在黄峥师妹阿布的带领下一路横扫，迅速登顶美国APPstore免费购物应用榜单第一。昨晚（11月28日），拼多多发布了最新财报，单季净利润超120亿元。令人惊讶的是，拼多多把 Temu 摆在首要位置。\n“这种项目正是我们想投的。”和孟岩类似，李笠最近一直在看出海赛道，已经跟踪了Temu一段时间。他透露，其实不少同行都在打听进入Temu的机会，不过目前拼多多尚未开放融资机会。\n李笠感叹，“Temu的火爆，让我们更深刻感受到出海广阔的前景。”\nVC投不进去的项目\n几天前，孟岩团队刚做完几个互联网大厂的研究，得出初步结论：Temu肯定能做起来。\n这要从团队对拼多多的研究说起。今年以来，一二级市场估值倒挂，消费赛道虽然冷却，但不少品牌估值仍然虚高。相比初创公司估值动辄就喊到数十亿，孟岩开始在二级市场寻找一些便宜的机会，于是拼多多进入了团队的视野。\n把几个互联网大厂分析一遍，孟岩发现，阿里的市值一直在跌，京东随着大盘涨跌，相对平稳，只有拼多多仍在逆势增长。\n正如昨晚（11月28日），拼多多发布了2022年第三季度财报。报告期内，公司实现营收高达355亿元，同比增长65.1%；归属于普通股股东的净利润为105.9亿元，同比上涨546%，这已经是拼多多连续第六个季度维持利润正增长了。\n\n\n（拼多多三季度财报）\n\n至于背后的逻辑，孟岩作了一番分析：市场下行时期，主打性价比的平台反而更加坚挺。“通俗地说，大家越没钱，拼多多越稳”。而在欧美经济下行的时候，拼多多推出了出海项目Temu，相当于“复制”了母公司的运营模式，更是来得及时。\n”Temu”，一个拼多多自创的新词，母公司给予了它拿下海外市场的愿景。这个名字取得巧妙，在Temu官方下载界面上，新词汇附带着解释：“Team Up，Price Down”，中文翻译过来大致是：“组团买，更便宜”。一股拼多多风格油然而生。\n\n\n\n\n今年9月1日，Temu正式面世，首站进军北美。虽然因国外法律风险，“砍一刀”没能一起出海，但Temu还是祭出了最熟悉的玩法：拉一个用户，奖励20美金。可谓把主业的“病毒式传播”玩得炉火纯青。\n加上商品价格普遍低于同行，品类也满足了大多数北美人民群体的日常购物需求，Temu火了。在不少投资人看来，Temu增长潜力巨大——那片被SHEIN、亚马逊等群狼分割的土地迎来了搅局者。\n“当国内业务进入一个较为舒适的区域，拼多多得以抽身出来，集中所有重点兵力冲击海外市场。” 孟岩透露，据他所知，黄峥、阿布等拼多多元老级人物亲自坐镇，足以见他们对整个新项目的重视。\n“现在美元背景的VC朋友特别关注Temu。”曾几何时，拼多多给国内不少VC/PE机构带来了丰厚的回报，直接使一批年轻投资人实现造富神话。现在，海外版“拼多多”来了，故事更加诱人。\n孟岩并不掩饰，此前团队通过各种渠道跟Temu建立联系，沟通融资需求。不过一番接触后了解到，虽然Temu前期一直需要烧钱，但拼多多现金流充足，并没有分拆Temu的计划，这一业务目前也不打算融资，一级市场的投资人想投也拿不到份额。“如果开放融资，这一定是个挤破头的项目”。\nVC圈虎视眈眈，所有人不愿眼睁睁错过这个重量级项目。\n于是，有趣的一幕发生了：投不进Temu，VC直接加仓了拼多多的股票。\n黄峥师妹掌舵，Temu大杀四方\n在美国复制一个拼多多\n到底谁在执掌Temu项目？\n阿布这个名字浮出水面。她是拼多多一个重量级存在，这位黄峥的同门师妹原名叫顾娉娉，从黄峥创业之初就一直追随左右。多年来，阿布鲜少出现在公众视野中，但多多买菜的掌舵者是她，让拼多多一炮而红的“游戏拼单”模式同样由她操刀。\n一位拼多多前员工透露，“阿布相当于内部CEO，行政、技术、运营都归她管。”\n阿布出手，Temu的重要程度不言而喻。为了在北美杀出一条血路，拼多多对Temu的投入不亚于多多买菜。有报道称，拼多多曾计划第一个月为Temu投入10亿，试图在用户心中建立“Team up，Price down”的品牌形象。\n更直接的是，拼多多的投资者关系网页启用了新域名pddholdings.com（“拼多多控股”），并将公司介绍改为，“一家拥有并经营一系列业务的跨国商业集团，包括北美消费者电子商务市场Temu和头部社交商务平台拼多多”，在这一则介绍中，Temu甚至在语序上优先于主业“拼多多”。\n\n\n（拼多多投资者关系网简介）\n\n在大洋彼岸的另一头，Temu也不负众望。凭借“裂变式拉新”，上线一个月不到，Temu的单日下载量就超越了亚马逊和SHEIN，登顶美国APPstore免费购物应用榜单第一。\n抢员工、抢供应商、抢市场，焦虑传到了竞争对手这一端。社交平台上有人透露，Temu以高出SHEIN百分之六十的薪水挖人，考虑到跳槽的员工不方便搬家，Temu直接把办公地点挪到SHEIN两站开外的地铁站边。\n除了高薪抢人，Temu还以巨额单量红利拿住供应商。有卖家称，“在Temu做了三个月，一天稳定1000单”。传闻中，SHEIN开始要求商家“二选一”，甚至被曝出“员工一旦跳槽Temu，永不录用”的言论，但这些信息目前尚未得到证实。\n而在消费者一端，Temu更是低价抢占市场。平台上的夏季女装价格多在20美元以下，项链、戒指的价格在5-10美元的区间内，一些小物件甚至低到1美元以下。一位在亚马逊平台上做出口的从业者吐槽，Temu的零售价比他们的进货价还便宜。\n\n\n\n\n二级市场也在研究Temu。东兴证券此前分析，Temu采取类自营模式，卖家负责供货，平台掌握商品定价权，并要求卖家报送产品底价。凭借主业在国内打下的供应链基础，Temu得以将价格压到了最低，一度引发网友惊呼：“直接整顿美国电商行业！”\n目前，有媒体公布了一组数据：Temu的日均GMV已经突破150万美元（约1000万人民币），入驻商家数量近3万个，SKU高达30-40万，涵盖24个一级类目。如果数据属实，那么Temu月度GMV就已超3亿人民币，也就是说，两个月不到，Temu就超越了跨境电商9成玩家一年的体量。\n一家才上线两月的跨境平台，发展势头如此迅猛。按照之前的设想，年底前Temu的GMV目标是3-5亿美元，并在未来一年达成30亿美元的目标，这相当于SHEIN目前体量的1/10。\n“Temu证明了这样一个逻辑：即便是在发达国家，有钱人依然只占很小的一部分，国外同样有下沉市场，拼多多在中国的那套逻辑或许依然适用。”看过Temu的数据后，上海一位VC投资人直言。\n“现在正是进入海外市场最好的时机。”分析完Temu，孟岩坦言，“从大环境来看，经济下行时期，人们对‘性价比’的需求更甚，加上这两年美国通胀，客观上给了Temu这类平台更宽松的崛起空间。”\n当互联网大佬集体坐镇\n出海大时代来了\n“除了黄峥，阿里蒋凡、字节跳动张一鸣、京东刘强东都去海外找机会。”一位接近互联网大厂的VC感叹，几乎所有人都坚信，中国崛起更多全球性互联网平台的时候到了。\n正如孟岩分析，几个互联网大厂的国内业务正在稳定增长，此前混战不休的社区团购胜负已定，国内竞争再也“卷”不出新高度了，国外却还是一片蓝海，充满着各种可能性。身经百战的玩家们，开始了“Copy from China”之旅。\n去年，原淘宝、天猫总裁蒋凡被派到了东南亚，负责包括Lazada在内的海外业务。在此之前，Lazada多次更换CEO，但还没有一员大将坐镇。而在阿里的组织架构调整和张勇的内部信中，蒋凡所代表的海外业务首次被提到了与零售比肩的位置。据了解，蒋凡下一步可能还要去欧洲。\n而在字节跳动这边，孟岩透露，“今年抖音GMV应该能到2万亿，天花板肉眼可见。包括张一鸣在内的几个核心高管，都在积极开拓海外市场。”此前，字节的海外业务TikTok已经定下目标：2022年底全球日活用户数超10.5亿。此外，字节还在不久前推出了专门卖女装的跨境独立站lfYooou。\n“但目前TikTok依然是重点”，上述投资人透露，“他们觉得东南亚市场小，下一部分重心也是欧美的直播电商。”\n如今，海外烽烟已起，群雄逐鹿。位于上海某互联网大厂的吴彬提到，“最近感受越来越强烈，中国公司在不远的未来，会越来越多的出海。TikTok、SHEIN、Temu等平台，已经开始挑战国外巨头构建的体系。”\n实际上，这波出海浪潮并非一朝一夕出现。中国新经济经历过去20多年的发展，形成了独特的互联网模式。“这些模式是可以搬到海外去的，比如在中国已经成功的电商、外卖、生鲜等项目。”孟岩介绍。\n借鉴中国已经发展完善的互联网创业模式，再加以当地本土化创新，这便是“Copy from China”，而这些模式去到海外又将成为新的增量，创造出新的产业体系，这也吸引了一批国内VC的关注。\n“最近我们一直在追踪他们的动态，也经常跟这些巨头聊，寻找还会在他们的生态下长出来的新公司。”孟岩说，现在TikTok、Temu等新平台往外涌，会有空间长出新品牌来，这与抖音在国内催生一批新品牌的逻辑一样。\n此外，国内某头部VC机构也已经设置了专门的投资团队，重点关注“Copy from China”的项目。红杉中国、高瓴、高榕资本、IDG资本、GGV纪源资本等大多数主流投资机构，同样在近年将出海和全球化作为了机构发展的重要方向。\n这是属于中国VC们的一个黄金领域——毕竟亲历了中国模式创新时代，国内投资人能够更早发掘项目，也能够提前预知企业的发展空间以及潜在风险。过去二十年的创投回报神话，也许正在异国他乡生根发芽。\n（文中孟岩、李笠、吴彬为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":1,"VC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962348596,"gmtCreate":1669729171615,"gmtModify":1676538230878,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962348596","repostId":"2287719775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962920950,"gmtCreate":1669698831070,"gmtModify":1676538225430,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962920950","repostId":"2286561052","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286561052","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669625645,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286561052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 16:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Musk's latest interview: Young people should learn to think critically","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286561052","media":"市场资讯","summary":"如果在年轻的时候学习批判性思维，也可以避免人们的大脑建立错误的概念。","content":"<p><html><body>Source: Yabuli Entrepreneurs Forum CEF</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/111/w550h361/20221128/b0fb-97720ea340482e21bb2d44c69f83050f.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Recently, at the B20 G20 Business Summit in Bali, Indonesia, Elon Musk was interviewed remotely by entrepreneur and Indonesian Minister of Education, Culture, Research and Technology Nadim Makarim.</p><p>Musk shared ideas about education, learning, and explained the first principles of physics as a tool.</p><p><font>The following is the full text of the interview (with deletions):</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font><font>One of the things that a lot of people get confused about is, how can you do so much? What are your productivity tools?</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Well, I did put a lot of time into it. I am not sure, if I would recommend my practice to others,</font><font><font>Because I work almost all the time. I rarely take a break, even a Sunday.</font></font></p><p>Regarding the tools for understanding the world, I think, the physics framework is very helpful. In physics, think from the perspective of first principles.</p><p>For a particular situation, you try to understand the most basic truth and then reason based on that. Then, test your conclusions against what you think is the basic truth.</p><p>In physics, it's like testing if you violate the conservation of energy, or the conservation of momentum, or something like that. It should always be assumed that we are somehow wrong while wanting to reduce the mistakes. This is very important.</p><p>It's a little hard to cross pride, but it's great for knowing the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>It's an iterative process, with constant healthy skepticism and, of course, a lot of time you put into it.</font></font><font><font>I've noticed that when you try to make a change, the resistance that comes with the change is very great and very painful. There will be a whole bunch of people, who I categorize as naysayers, who are constantly trying to say that what you are trying to achieve is impossible.</font></font><font><font>How do you deal with these naysayers?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I want to go back to physics, the only thing that is really impossible, is breaking the laws of physics. Anything is possible without breaking the laws of physics.</font></p><p><font><font><font>No one's opinion matters, physics is the law, everything else is advice.</font></font></font><font><font>I've seen a lot of people break the law, but I've never seen anyone break the laws of physics.</font></font></p><p><font>NADIM: Anything is possible within the laws of physics?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Of course, you can also challenge the laws of physics, but they have been challenged enough that they are very adaptable.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>Have there ever been several landmark events that took place during your childhood or teenage years and have had the most profound impact on who you are today?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I read a lot of sci-fi and fantasy books, and I love movies like Star Trek and Star Wars.</font><font>Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a theater.</font><font>At that time I</font><font>Only six years old,</font><font>To me</font><font>Have a very big impact.</font></p><p>The Lord of the Rings is my favorite book, the Base series by Isaac Asimov, and<font>Robert Heinlein's The Tough Moon also</font>Had a huge impact on me.</p><p>In trying to seek the truth of things, I explored many avenues, and ultimately found that physics is the best way to find the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>NADIM: You made it clear that it should actually change<font><font>education</font></font>Certain ways of. Please say something</font></font></font><font><font>Your thoughts on education, what would education look like in your ideal world?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I think that when we try to learn something, building correlation is<font>Extremely important. Be frequent</font>Ask yourself, why learn this?</font></p><p><font>Our brains are constantly trying to forget. On a subconscious level, our brain tries to decide what is relevant and what is not.</font><font>The brain doesn't want to remember<font>We</font><font>Most of the things I see,</font></font><font>Therefore, correlations must be established.</font><font>Once a correlation is established, the brain naturally wants to remember it.</font></p><p><font>There are two different ways of conducting education. One is to teach through tools, and the other is to teach through a problem we want to solve<font>Launch teaching</font>。</font><font>For example, faced with a series of lessons on wrenches, screwdrivers and winches, we get bored without establishing correlations.</font><font>But if you disassemble and assemble an engine, contact</font><font>Screwdrivers, wrenches, winches and other tools, we</font><font>Will understand their relevance well and remember them.</font></p><p><font>It is a very simple but important principle that these tools will make sense by explaining them in the process of problem solving.</font><font>Otherwise, they will appear unrelated and people will not remember them.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/140/w550h390/20221128/48ad-447802e4a709aab3bb3dfa8248ea361d.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>The homepage of the official website of Astra Nova (formerly known as Ad Astra), an experimental school promoted by Musk. The school adheres to teaching students according to their aptitude, which promotes many of the educational philosophies mentioned by Ma in this interview</p><p><font><font><font>NADIM: Is this practice happening in education systems around the world?</font></font></font><font><font>What changes need to be made from a faculty or curriculum perspective?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Often things go the other way around.</font><font>They will teach</font><font>You use tools instead of teaching you how to solve problems and then building the relevance of the tools.</font></p><p><font>For example, you might take a calculus course but have no idea why you want to study calculus.</font><font>Actually, this can be a meaningless psychological disorder course for a lot of people, and unless you expect to use it in the future, there is no point in learning calculus.</font></p><p><font>Frankly, a lot of education is meaningless. People are taught a lot of things, but in reality, they won't be used in the future.</font><font>If I may make a strong suggestion, it is that critical thinking should be taught early in education.</font></p><p><font>Critical thinking is important because it creates psychological firewalls that enable children to reject concepts that are not persuasive,</font><font>just like</font><font>Have a defense system against psychic viruses.</font><font>If you learn at a young age<font>Critical thinking, also</font>It can prevent people's brains from establishing false concepts.</font></p><p><font>Moreover, know how to defend against mental tricks.</font><font>People tend to trap you with fallacies,</font><font>So mastering the ability to defend against fallacies would be a good course.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>If young people asked you for career advice, which industries would you recommend? And, which industries are likely to be reduced in value in the future?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Any industry related to sustainable energy and<font>artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>，</font>Will be very important in the future. For example,</font><font>Self-driving cars, self-flying aircraft, self-moving boats...<font>In synthetic biology also</font><font>There are many opportunities,</font><font>Synthetic messenger RNA</font><font>It will become a revolution in the field of medicine.</font></font></p><p><font>Of course, these are very technical subjects, and there are many other things worth pursuing,</font><font>But as a technical expert,</font><font><font>Sustainable energy, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology</font><font>learning<font>Three collars</font><font>Domain</font></font></font><font>That's my suggestion</font><font>。</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/68/w448h420/20221128/77a5-a3ef102799f62a7263d2cdaae942752a.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>messenger RNA (abbreviation: mRNA) is transcribed from DNA and carries the corresponding genetic information to provide the information needed for the next step of translation into protein (Source: Wikipedia)</p><p><font>Nadim: Which technologies scare you the most in terms of risk?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>We should be concerned about artificial intelligence,</font><font>It is not desirable that digital superintelligence that goes astray will cause damage to humanity.</font><font>We do need to be cautious about AI.</font></p><p>It also has the potential to become dangerous when it comes to synthetic biology. Because, it has the potential to create more destructive viruses than those that occur naturally.</p><p>These technical tools are definitely double-edged swords. The more powerful the technology, the more careful we need to be when using it.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>What do you think Indonesia needs to do to become a global economic powerhouse by 2045?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Extensive education clearly makes a lot of sense. Having a high speed internet connection throughout Indonesia will be very important.</font><font>even if</font><font>With only a cheap device and low-cost internet access, people</font><font>You can learn anything.</font></p><p>For example, MIT classes are free on tubing. You can learn almost anything you want on the internet for free.<font>So I think a wide internet connection is crucial because it allows people to learn whatever they want, at the speed they like.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/52/w550h302/20221128/cfb5-89f944befce0c49a415df548066b1dec.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>NADIM: Then there are some audience questions. He wants to know what is the biggest obstacle or mistake you have ever faced? How was it overcome?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Frankly, I've made a lot of mistakes and it takes a long time to list them all.</font><font>Over time, we always desire to be able to reduce our mistakes, but</font><font>It is also difficult to make fewer mistakes every day.</font></p><p>I once said publicly that mind and mind are both important, and you can't just look at the mind. One of the biggest mistakes I have made in hiring people is to place too much emphasis on their thinking ability and neglect mental maturity.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/81/w550h331/20221128/555c-80454a0cc0f70b8b4b07dc56ed800c19.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>I think the higher principle is that we<font>You should always assume that you are wrong, and that you are, and at the same time</font>Strive to make fewer mistakes and try to make fewer mistakes every day.</font><font>In the process,</font><font>Want</font><font>Take the \"</font><font>Make less mistakes \"instead of thinking you're right</font><font>, and</font><font>Let others</font><font>To prove you are right</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>NADIM: One last question, which</font></font><font><font>Daily habits that have made you who you are now?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>In terms of everyday habits, I am curious about the world and how it works, curious about technology, curious about everything. Curiosity, I think, is a very important thing,</font><font>meanwhile</font><font>, also</font><font>Have a certain attachment to curiosity. So,</font><font>Persistent curiosity is important.</font></p><p><font>And, I think the adventurous spirit is also good. People are afraid of certain things, but they don't have to.</font><font>Sometimes our instinctive fear is not commensurate with the actual danger, and the next time we face fear, we should</font><font>Try to rethink, like, is this fear justified?</font><font>Could something bad really happen?</font><font>We</font><font>Have to look at it</font><font>Instinctive fear, and question it,</font><font>A simple examination of the fear may make it disappear.</font></p><p>* Article Source Economics One Gram Nanometer</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's latest interview: Young people should learn to think critically</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's latest interview: Young people should learn to think critically\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-28 16:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Source: Yabuli Entrepreneurs Forum CEF</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/111/w550h361/20221128/b0fb-97720ea340482e21bb2d44c69f83050f.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Recently, at the B20 G20 Business Summit in Bali, Indonesia, Elon Musk was interviewed remotely by entrepreneur and Indonesian Minister of Education, Culture, Research and Technology Nadim Makarim.</p><p>Musk shared ideas about education, learning, and explained the first principles of physics as a tool.</p><p><font>The following is the full text of the interview (with deletions):</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font><font>One of the things that a lot of people get confused about is, how can you do so much? What are your productivity tools?</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Well, I did put a lot of time into it. I am not sure, if I would recommend my practice to others,</font><font><font>Because I work almost all the time. I rarely take a break, even a Sunday.</font></font></p><p>Regarding the tools for understanding the world, I think, the physics framework is very helpful. In physics, think from the perspective of first principles.</p><p>For a particular situation, you try to understand the most basic truth and then reason based on that. Then, test your conclusions against what you think is the basic truth.</p><p>In physics, it's like testing if you violate the conservation of energy, or the conservation of momentum, or something like that. It should always be assumed that we are somehow wrong while wanting to reduce the mistakes. This is very important.</p><p>It's a little hard to cross pride, but it's great for knowing the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>It's an iterative process, with constant healthy skepticism and, of course, a lot of time you put into it.</font></font><font><font>I've noticed that when you try to make a change, the resistance that comes with the change is very great and very painful. There will be a whole bunch of people, who I categorize as naysayers, who are constantly trying to say that what you are trying to achieve is impossible.</font></font><font><font>How do you deal with these naysayers?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I want to go back to physics, the only thing that is really impossible, is breaking the laws of physics. Anything is possible without breaking the laws of physics.</font></p><p><font><font><font>No one's opinion matters, physics is the law, everything else is advice.</font></font></font><font><font>I've seen a lot of people break the law, but I've never seen anyone break the laws of physics.</font></font></p><p><font>NADIM: Anything is possible within the laws of physics?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Of course, you can also challenge the laws of physics, but they have been challenged enough that they are very adaptable.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>Have there ever been several landmark events that took place during your childhood or teenage years and have had the most profound impact on who you are today?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I read a lot of sci-fi and fantasy books, and I love movies like Star Trek and Star Wars.</font><font>Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a theater.</font><font>At that time I</font><font>Only six years old,</font><font>To me</font><font>Have a very big impact.</font></p><p>The Lord of the Rings is my favorite book, the Base series by Isaac Asimov, and<font>Robert Heinlein's The Tough Moon also</font>Had a huge impact on me.</p><p>In trying to seek the truth of things, I explored many avenues, and ultimately found that physics is the best way to find the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>NADIM: You made it clear that it should actually change<font><font>education</font></font>Certain ways of. Please say something</font></font></font><font><font>Your thoughts on education, what would education look like in your ideal world?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I think that when we try to learn something, building correlation is<font>Extremely important. Be frequent</font>Ask yourself, why learn this?</font></p><p><font>Our brains are constantly trying to forget. On a subconscious level, our brain tries to decide what is relevant and what is not.</font><font>The brain doesn't want to remember<font>We</font><font>Most of the things I see,</font></font><font>Therefore, correlations must be established.</font><font>Once a correlation is established, the brain naturally wants to remember it.</font></p><p><font>There are two different ways of conducting education. One is to teach through tools, and the other is to teach through a problem we want to solve<font>Launch teaching</font>。</font><font>For example, faced with a series of lessons on wrenches, screwdrivers and winches, we get bored without establishing correlations.</font><font>But if you disassemble and assemble an engine, contact</font><font>Screwdrivers, wrenches, winches and other tools, we</font><font>Will understand their relevance well and remember them.</font></p><p><font>It is a very simple but important principle that these tools will make sense by explaining them in the process of problem solving.</font><font>Otherwise, they will appear unrelated and people will not remember them.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/140/w550h390/20221128/48ad-447802e4a709aab3bb3dfa8248ea361d.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>The homepage of the official website of Astra Nova (formerly known as Ad Astra), an experimental school promoted by Musk. The school adheres to teaching students according to their aptitude, which promotes many of the educational philosophies mentioned by Ma in this interview</p><p><font><font><font>NADIM: Is this practice happening in education systems around the world?</font></font></font><font><font>What changes need to be made from a faculty or curriculum perspective?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Often things go the other way around.</font><font>They will teach</font><font>You use tools instead of teaching you how to solve problems and then building the relevance of the tools.</font></p><p><font>For example, you might take a calculus course but have no idea why you want to study calculus.</font><font>Actually, this can be a meaningless psychological disorder course for a lot of people, and unless you expect to use it in the future, there is no point in learning calculus.</font></p><p><font>Frankly, a lot of education is meaningless. People are taught a lot of things, but in reality, they won't be used in the future.</font><font>If I may make a strong suggestion, it is that critical thinking should be taught early in education.</font></p><p><font>Critical thinking is important because it creates psychological firewalls that enable children to reject concepts that are not persuasive,</font><font>just like</font><font>Have a defense system against psychic viruses.</font><font>If you learn at a young age<font>Critical thinking, also</font>It can prevent people's brains from establishing false concepts.</font></p><p><font>Moreover, know how to defend against mental tricks.</font><font>People tend to trap you with fallacies,</font><font>So mastering the ability to defend against fallacies would be a good course.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>If young people asked you for career advice, which industries would you recommend? And, which industries are likely to be reduced in value in the future?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Any industry related to sustainable energy and<font>artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>，</font>Will be very important in the future. For example,</font><font>Self-driving cars, self-flying aircraft, self-moving boats...<font>In synthetic biology also</font><font>There are many opportunities,</font><font>Synthetic messenger RNA</font><font>It will become a revolution in the field of medicine.</font></font></p><p><font>Of course, these are very technical subjects, and there are many other things worth pursuing,</font><font>But as a technical expert,</font><font><font>Sustainable energy, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology</font><font>learning<font>Three collars</font><font>Domain</font></font></font><font>That's my suggestion</font><font>。</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/68/w448h420/20221128/77a5-a3ef102799f62a7263d2cdaae942752a.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>messenger RNA (abbreviation: mRNA) is transcribed from DNA and carries the corresponding genetic information to provide the information needed for the next step of translation into protein (Source: Wikipedia)</p><p><font>Nadim: Which technologies scare you the most in terms of risk?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>We should be concerned about artificial intelligence,</font><font>It is not desirable that digital superintelligence that goes astray will cause damage to humanity.</font><font>We do need to be cautious about AI.</font></p><p>It also has the potential to become dangerous when it comes to synthetic biology. Because, it has the potential to create more destructive viruses than those that occur naturally.</p><p>These technical tools are definitely double-edged swords. The more powerful the technology, the more careful we need to be when using it.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadim:</font></font></font><font><font>What do you think Indonesia needs to do to become a global economic powerhouse by 2045?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Extensive education clearly makes a lot of sense. Having a high speed internet connection throughout Indonesia will be very important.</font><font>even if</font><font>With only a cheap device and low-cost internet access, people</font><font>You can learn anything.</font></p><p>For example, MIT classes are free on tubing. You can learn almost anything you want on the internet for free.<font>So I think a wide internet connection is crucial because it allows people to learn whatever they want, at the speed they like.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/52/w550h302/20221128/cfb5-89f944befce0c49a415df548066b1dec.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>NADIM: Then there are some audience questions. He wants to know what is the biggest obstacle or mistake you have ever faced? How was it overcome?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Frankly, I've made a lot of mistakes and it takes a long time to list them all.</font><font>Over time, we always desire to be able to reduce our mistakes, but</font><font>It is also difficult to make fewer mistakes every day.</font></p><p>I once said publicly that mind and mind are both important, and you can't just look at the mind. One of the biggest mistakes I have made in hiring people is to place too much emphasis on their thinking ability and neglect mental maturity.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/81/w550h331/20221128/555c-80454a0cc0f70b8b4b07dc56ed800c19.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>I think the higher principle is that we<font>You should always assume that you are wrong, and that you are, and at the same time</font>Strive to make fewer mistakes and try to make fewer mistakes every day.</font><font>In the process,</font><font>Want</font><font>Take the \"</font><font>Make less mistakes \"instead of thinking you're right</font><font>, and</font><font>Let others</font><font>To prove you are right</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>NADIM: One last question, which</font></font><font><font>Daily habits that have made you who you are now?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>In terms of everyday habits, I am curious about the world and how it works, curious about technology, curious about everything. Curiosity, I think, is a very important thing,</font><font>meanwhile</font><font>, also</font><font>Have a certain attachment to curiosity. So,</font><font>Persistent curiosity is important.</font></p><p><font>And, I think the adventurous spirit is also good. People are afraid of certain things, but they don't have to.</font><font>Sometimes our instinctive fear is not commensurate with the actual danger, and the next time we face fear, we should</font><font>Try to rethink, like, is this fear justified?</font><font>Could something bad really happen?</font><font>We</font><font>Have to look at it</font><font>Instinctive fear, and question it,</font><font>A simple examination of the fear may make it disappear.</font></p><p>* Article Source Economics One Gram Nanometer</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-11-28/doc-imqmmthc6299945.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 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ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-11-28/doc-imqmmthc6299945.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286561052","content_text":"来源：亚布力企业家论坛CEF近日，在印尼巴厘岛举行的B20二十国集团工商界峰会上，埃隆·马斯克接受了企业家，印度尼西亚教育、文化、研究和技术部长纳迪姆·马卡里姆的远程采访。马斯克分享了关于教育，学习的看法，并解释了物理学第一性原理这个工具。以下为访谈全文（有删减）：纳迪姆：很多人感到困惑的一件事是，你怎么能做这么多事？你的生产力工具有哪些？埃隆·马斯克：嗯，我确实投入了大量的时间。我不确定，我是否会向其他人推荐我的做法，因为我几乎所有时间都在工作。我很少休息，哪怕是一个星期天。关于理解世界的工具，我认为，物理学框架是非常有帮助的。在物理学中，要从第一性原理的角度进行思考。对于一种特定的情况，你尝试理解最基本的真理，然后基于此进行推理。然后，根据你认为的基本真理来检验你的结论。在物理学中，这就像检验你是否违反了能量守恒，或动量守恒，或类似的定律。应该永远假设，我们在某种程度上是错误的，同时想减少错误。这一点非常重要。这有点难以跨越自尊心，但它对于了解事情的真相很有帮助。纳迪姆：这是个迭代的过程，不断持有健康的怀疑态度，当然，还有你投入的大量时间。我注意到，当你尝试做出改变时，改变带来的阻力是非常大的，也是非常痛苦的。会有一整群人，我把他们归类为反对者，他们不断地试图说，你所要实现的目标是不可能的。你如何应对这些反对者？埃隆·马斯克：我想回到物理学上，唯一真正不可能的事情，是打破物理学定律。只要没打破物理定律，一切皆有可能。任何人的意见都不重要，物理学是定律，其他一切都是建议。我见过很多人违反法律，但我从未见过有人违反物理学定律。纳迪姆：在物理学定律范围内，任何事情都有可能？埃隆·马斯克：当然，你也可以挑战物理学定律，但它们已经被挑战得够多的，它们有很强的适应性。纳迪姆：是否曾经有几个里程碑式的事件，发生在你的儿童或青少年时代，并给今天的你带来了最深远影响？埃隆·马斯克：我读了很多科幻和奇幻书籍，我喜欢《星际迷航》《星球大战》这类电影。《星球大战》是我在电影院看过的第一部电影。当时我只有六岁，对我产生非常大的影响。《指环王》是我最喜欢的书，艾萨克·阿西莫夫的《基地》系列，以及罗伯特·海因莱因的《严厉的月亮》也对我有巨大的影响。在尝试寻求事物的真相时，我探索了很多途径，最终发现，物理学是探索事物真相的最佳途径。纳迪姆：你明确指出过，应该实际改变教育的某些方式。请说一下你对教育的想法，在你的理想世界里，教育是什么样子的？埃隆·马斯克：我认为，当我们尝试学习一些东西时，建立相关性是极其重要的。要经常问问自己，为什么学这个？我们的大脑一直在试图忘却。在潜意识层面上，我们的大脑试图决定什么相关，什么不相关。大脑并不想记住我们看到的大多数东西，因此，必须建立相关性。一旦建立了相关性，大脑自然就会想要记住它。有两种开展教育的不同方法。一种是通过工具展开教学，另一种是通过我们想解决的一个问题来展开教学。例如，面对一系列关于扳手、螺丝刀和绞盘的课程，如果不建立相关性，我们会感到很无聊。但如果通过拆装一个发动机，接触到螺丝刀、扳手、绞盘等工具，我们会很好理解它们的相关性，并且记住它们。这是一个非常简单但重要的原则，即在解决问题的过程中解释这些工具，这些工具就会有意义。否则，它们就会显得毫不相关，人们也不会记住它们。马斯克推动创办的实验性学校Astra Nova（前称：Ad Astra）的官网首页。学校秉承因材施教，推动了很多马在这个访谈中提到的教育理念纳迪姆：这种做法是否正在世界各地的教育系统中发生？从教师或课程的角度来看，需要做出些什么改变？埃隆·马斯克：经常有一些事情是反着来的。他们会教你使用工具，而不是教你如何解决问题，然后再建立工具的相关性。例如，你可能会参加一门微积分课程，但不知道为什么要学习微积分。实际上，对很多人来说，这可能是一门没有意义的心理障碍课程，除非你期望在未来使用它，否则学习微积分是没有意义的。坦率地说，很多教育都是毫无意义的。人们被教了很多东西，但实际上，未来并不会使用到这些东西。如果我可以提出一个强烈的建议，那就是，在教育早期就应该教授批判性思维。批判性思维非常重要，因为它创建了心理防火墙，使儿童能够拒绝那些没有说服力的概念，就像拥有一个抗心灵病毒的防御系统。如果在年轻的时候学习批判性思维，也可以避免人们的大脑建立错误的概念。而且，还要知道如何抵御精神诡计。人们往往会用谬论来困住你，因此掌握抵御谬论的能力，将是一门很好的课程。纳迪姆：如果年轻人向你询问职业建议，你会推荐哪些行业？以及，未来哪些行业可能价值会降低？埃隆·马斯克：任何与可持续能源有关的行业以及人工智能，在未来都将是非常重要的。例如，自动驾驶的汽车、自动飞行的飞机、自动行驶的船只．．．．．．在合成生物学方面也有很多的机会，合成信使RNA将成为医药领域的一场革命。当然，这些都是非常技术性的课题，还有许多其他值得追求的东西，但作为技术专家，可持续能源，人工智能，合成生物学三大领域就是我的建议。信使核糖核酸（messenger RNA，缩写：mRNA），是由DNA经由转录而来，带着相应的遗传讯息，为下一步翻译成蛋白质提供所需的讯息（源：维基百科）纳迪姆：就风险而言，哪些技术最让你害怕？埃隆·马斯克：我们应该对人工智能心存担忧，不希望出现走向歧路的数字超级智能对人类造成损害。我们确实需要对人工智能持谨慎态度。在合成生物学方面，它也有可能变得危险。因为，它有可能创造出比自然出现的更具破坏性的病毒。这些技术工具，绝对是双刃剑。技术越强大，我们在使用时就越需要小心。纳迪姆：你认为印度尼西亚需要做些什么，才能在2045年成为全球经济强国？埃隆·马斯克：广泛的教育显然很有意义。在印度尼西亚全国拥有高速互联网连接将非常重要。哪怕只有一个廉价的设备和低成本的互联网接入，人们就可以学到任何东西。例如，麻省理工学院的课程在油管上是免费的。你几乎可以在互联网上免费学习任何你想要的内容。因此，我认为广泛的互联网连接是至关重要的，因为它允许人们以他们喜欢的速度，学习任何他们想学的内容。纳迪姆：接下来是一些观众问题。他想知道你曾面临的最大障碍或错误是什么？是如何克服的？埃隆·马斯克：坦率地说，我犯过很多错，把它们全部列出来要花很长的时间。随着时间的推移，我们总渴望能够减少错误，但要每天少犯错，也是很难的。我曾经公开说过，心智和思维都很重要，不能光看思维。我在雇用人员方面所犯过最大的错误之一，就是过于看重他们的思维能力，而忽视心智的成熟。我认为更高的原则是，我们应该永远假设自己是错的，事实上也的确如此，同时要争取少犯错，并且每天努力减少犯错。在这个过程中，要采取“减少犯错”的方法，而不是认为自己是对的，并且让别人来证明你是对的。纳迪姆：最后一个问题，哪些日常习惯，让你成为了现在的你？埃隆·马斯克：就日常习惯而言，我对世界及世界的运作方式充满好奇，对技术好奇，对一切事物好奇。我认为，好奇心是一个非常重要的东西，同时，还要对好奇心有一定的执着。所以，执着的好奇心是很重要的。并且，我认为冒险精神也很好。人们对某些事情感到害怕，其实大可不必。有时候，我们的本能恐惧与实际危险并不相称，下次再面临恐惧，我们应该尝试重新思考，比如，这种恐惧是合理的吗？会不会真的有不好的事发生？我们必须要审视一下本能恐惧，并质疑它，简单地审视一下恐惧，也许就会让它消失。* 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11:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Musk's monkeys are driving a brain-computer revolution at the expense of 'banana shakes'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137562033","media":"硅星人","summary":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The brain-computer interface revolution came too quickly.</p><p>Musk revealed at a Neuralink communication meeting in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, called the N1, can start human testing within as soon as six months.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all the work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about six months, you can see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Banana Shake, Cyberpunk's First Productivity</p><p>Looking at the whole press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so soon...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>You may know that Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with names, and there are countless reserves without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink cannot force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink has already understood one truth as early as the beginning of the in-vivo experiment: a strong twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced and reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana shakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a reinforcement mechanism: Whenever monkeys participated in the current experiment and completed an operation, they were given banana shakes...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the more you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism for stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see below, these monkeys are experimenting while sipping a drink from a tube in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: happily doing experiments, happily drinking milkshakes...</b></p><p>This feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>Let's first look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it looks like monkeys can type, they don't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press the next key has been designed by the experimental staff a long time ago, and it will be marked in yellow in a conspicuous way on the virtual keyboard of the MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey \"moves\" to the next key to be pressed through the mind brain control cursor and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Get some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with having monkeys type with a cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to manipulate commonly used electronic devices, including mobile phones, through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, this company's monkey army, driven by banana milkshakes, is doing all kinds of training work, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and Drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"It was still a virtual keyboard at the beginning. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, and combine the graphics in the picture with the signal pattern obtained by training to accurately judge what words the monkey is writing on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid the monkey will really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves the staff of Neuralink a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\", and then put the charging pad in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This way, whenever the monkey wants a banana smoothie, it will run over and suck on the pipe.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be directed at the charging pad, drinking a drink and charging at the same time.</b></p><p>This design, brain circuit is really very interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this conference generally gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → I tried many ways to solve it → Hey, in the end, I have to banana method → No way banana it really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to achieve cyberpunk, banana milkshake became the primary productivity...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to turning back to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : Concord Food</p><p>From banana shakes, to the plasticity of monkey brains</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, test tools, etc.</p><p>In the following example, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one just mentioned, that is, to help (paralyzed) people get motor functions.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: helping those visually impaired people who have been living in the dark to regain the light through external devices + brain-computer interface.</b></p><p>The problem for most visually impaired people is in the eyeball, and their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to directly transmit signals into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain their light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the cranium in the visual cortex of monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>However, this time the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals to control peripherals, it is completely reversed, taking visual content from the outside, compiling it into raw cranial nerve signals, and transmitting it back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not humans, and there is no way to tell the experimenters whether they have seen or not, and what they have seen. Therefore, Neuralink has designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a commonly used method in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) The artificial intervention signal input by the brain-computer interface stimulates the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results match, use a banana shake for incentives.</b></p><p>As shown below: The green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards a position where no white dots appear, precisely because of the signal of artificial intervention received through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball is not highly consistent with the artificial signal.</p><p><b>What's interesting, however, is that as the tests get longer and the number of times increases, the monkeys get more skilled and the degree of compliance increases.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a kind of plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons inside the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity. Through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>If the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will be higher, and the number of pixels will be further increased from a single vector to lines, surfaces, shapes and colors...</b></p><p><b>That way, wouldn't it be possible for those who were blind to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to cross.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface in the near future (note that this is not a real picture, but just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthetic kit, images are acquired through a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>It can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware pieces the protagonist gets is the visual prosthetic Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronics and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>righteous<b>Body is not as cool as it is in the game yet.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk declares that prosthetics can 'restore' vision — perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthetic body is not the vision that you and I have. It is more like dotted spots of light, perhaps able to be combined to create a simple display effect, like the old-fashioned bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, bringing the light back to the blind remains a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as a culture of many excellent literary and artistic works, also sounds the alarm for the future of humanity too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks can't be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up its efforts to improve technical security, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Techniques have been developed to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells grown in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialists in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that implants electrodes directly outside the meninges without pioneering on the meninges (dura) (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, which is easy to bring infection dangers, and it is very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>upgradability is one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized cut in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face tissue problems caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the device. Upgrading hardware is difficult, so the hardware must guarantee the ability to upgrade software to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to do it in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe in the future, Neuralink can become a cyber technology giant like Arasaka...</p><p>\"I was laughing because Elon Musk made a move through NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Liked it and then very seriously thought, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was choking someone. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Web</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gxr","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's monkeys are driving a brain-computer revolution at the expense of 'banana shakes'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's monkeys are driving a brain-computer revolution at the expense of 'banana shakes'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">硅星人</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The brain-computer interface revolution came too quickly.</p><p>Musk revealed at a Neuralink communication meeting in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, called the N1, can start human testing within as soon as six months.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all the work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about six months, you can see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Banana Shake, Cyberpunk's First Productivity</p><p>Looking at the whole press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so soon...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>You may know that Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with names, and there are countless reserves without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink cannot force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink has already understood one truth as early as the beginning of the in-vivo experiment: a strong twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced and reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana shakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a reinforcement mechanism: Whenever monkeys participated in the current experiment and completed an operation, they were given banana shakes...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the more you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism for stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see below, these monkeys are experimenting while sipping a drink from a tube in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: happily doing experiments, happily drinking milkshakes...</b></p><p>This feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>Let's first look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it looks like monkeys can type, they don't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press the next key has been designed by the experimental staff a long time ago, and it will be marked in yellow in a conspicuous way on the virtual keyboard of the MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey \"moves\" to the next key to be pressed through the mind brain control cursor and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Get some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with having monkeys type with a cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to manipulate commonly used electronic devices, including mobile phones, through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, this company's monkey army, driven by banana milkshakes, is doing all kinds of training work, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and Drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"It was still a virtual keyboard at the beginning. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, and combine the graphics in the picture with the signal pattern obtained by training to accurately judge what words the monkey is writing on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid the monkey will really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves the staff of Neuralink a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\", and then put the charging pad in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This way, whenever the monkey wants a banana smoothie, it will run over and suck on the pipe.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be directed at the charging pad, drinking a drink and charging at the same time.</b></p><p>This design, brain circuit is really very interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this conference generally gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → I tried many ways to solve it → Hey, in the end, I have to banana method → No way banana it really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to achieve cyberpunk, banana milkshake became the primary productivity...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to turning back to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : Concord Food</p><p>From banana shakes, to the plasticity of monkey brains</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, test tools, etc.</p><p>In the following example, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one just mentioned, that is, to help (paralyzed) people get motor functions.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: helping those visually impaired people who have been living in the dark to regain the light through external devices + brain-computer interface.</b></p><p>The problem for most visually impaired people is in the eyeball, and their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to directly transmit signals into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain their light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the cranium in the visual cortex of monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>However, this time the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals to control peripherals, it is completely reversed, taking visual content from the outside, compiling it into raw cranial nerve signals, and transmitting it back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not humans, and there is no way to tell the experimenters whether they have seen or not, and what they have seen. Therefore, Neuralink has designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a commonly used method in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) The artificial intervention signal input by the brain-computer interface stimulates the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results match, use a banana shake for incentives.</b></p><p>As shown below: The green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards a position where no white dots appear, precisely because of the signal of artificial intervention received through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball is not highly consistent with the artificial signal.</p><p><b>What's interesting, however, is that as the tests get longer and the number of times increases, the monkeys get more skilled and the degree of compliance increases.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a kind of plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons inside the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity. Through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>If the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will be higher, and the number of pixels will be further increased from a single vector to lines, surfaces, shapes and colors...</b></p><p><b>That way, wouldn't it be possible for those who were blind to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to cross.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface in the near future (note that this is not a real picture, but just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthetic kit, images are acquired through a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>It can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware pieces the protagonist gets is the visual prosthetic Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronics and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source : TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>righteous<b>Body is not as cool as it is in the game yet.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk declares that prosthetics can 'restore' vision — perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthetic body is not the vision that you and I have. It is more like dotted spots of light, perhaps able to be combined to create a simple display effect, like the old-fashioned bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, bringing the light back to the blind remains a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as a culture of many excellent literary and artistic works, also sounds the alarm for the future of humanity too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks can't be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up its efforts to improve technical security, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Techniques have been developed to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells grown in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialists in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that implants electrodes directly outside the meninges without pioneering on the meninges (dura) (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, which is easy to bring infection dangers, and it is very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>upgradability is one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized cut in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face tissue problems caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the device. Upgrading hardware is difficult, so the hardware must guarantee the ability to upgrade software to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to do it in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe in the future, Neuralink can become a cyber technology giant like Arasaka...</p><p>\"I was laughing because Elon Musk made a move through NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Liked it and then very seriously thought, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was choking someone. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Web</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">硅星人</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a370dedf78ec8709f7980cc3b5d33703","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137562033","content_text":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。马斯克在硅谷举行的Neuralink沟通会上透露：首款脑机接口产品，名为N1，最快6个月内就可以启动人类测试。“为了我们的首次临床测试，我们正在非常努力地加紧各项工作准备，”马斯克轻描淡写地表示。“我们绝大部分的文书资料已经提交到了 FDA。我们估计大约再过6个月时间，大家就可以看到 Neuralink 装到人的脑袋上了。”Neuralink 拟推出的 N1 脑机接口（内部构造）   图片来源：Neuralink香蕉奶昔，赛博朋克的第一生产力整场发布会看下来，硅星人有一个最核心的感受：如果没有香蕉奶昔（banana smoothie），这场脑机接口的革命，恐怕不会来得这么快……为什么这么说呢？大家可能知道Neuralink这家公司过去以来一直是用猴子和猪等动物进行实验的。有名有姓的猴子，就有至少8只，没名字的预备役更是数不胜数。但是根据规定，Neuralink不能强迫它们参与配合实验……更何况，早在启动活体实验的初期Neuralink就已经明白一个道理：强扭的瓜不甜。让这些猴子做实验哪怕它们有一点被迫、不情愿，对实验效果都会有影响。于是Neuralink 开发出了一套“自愿参与”原则的激励方案：只要来做实验，就有无限量的香蕉奶昔供应！图片来源：Neuralink具体来说，就像条件反射那样，Neuralink 的饲养工作人员参与设计了一套强化机制：每当猴子参与了当前的实验，完成了一次操作，就会得到香蕉奶昔……这样，越做实验，喝的越爽。久而久之，就形成了刺激强化的反馈机制。下图你可以看到，这些猴子一边做着实验，一边从面前的管子里嘬着饮料。简直可以说是：高高兴兴做实验，开开心心喝奶昔……这样的反馈机制，在 Neuralink 最近两年的研发工作中，扮演了相当重要的角色。首先来看下面这个脑控光标的实验：图片来源：Neuralink（虽然看起来猴子都会打字了，然而并非如此，猴子怎么可能懂英语呢？）下一个键要按什么，实验工作人员早就设计好了，会在猴子面前 MacBook 的虚拟键盘上，会以黄色显眼的方式注明。而在激励机制的作用下，只要猴子通过意念脑控光标“移动”到下一个要按的键上，并发出“按下”的信号，管子里就会流出香甜可口的香蕉奶昔……在对于甜品的渴望驱使下，猴子打出了这么一句话：搞点夜点心切切吧 (can i please have snacks)……图片来源：Neuralink但 Neuralink 并不满足于让猴子用光标打字。毕竟它的阶段性目标之一，是让（瘫痪）的人们可以通过脑机信号来操控包括手机在内的常用电子设备。所以，这家公司的猴子大军，正在香蕉奶昔的驱动下，做着各种各样的训练工作，包括并不限于：点按和拖拽滑动输入手写手势识别等等……图片来源：Neuralink以手写为例：“一开始还是虚拟键盘。现在我们已经可以直接用脑机界面来读取信号，结合画面中的图形，和训练得到的信号模式，来精准地判断猴子在屏幕上写的是什么字”，一位 Neuralink 技术专家透露。这样下去，猴子恐怕真要“学会”写字、拼词了？以及，香蕉奶昔还能刺激猴子自己去给脑机接口充电！这样简直是给 Neuralink 的工作人员，省了大麻烦了……具体机制是这样设计的：他们将一棵树做成了“奶茶店”，然后把充电板放在了装饰的树杈里：图片来源：Neuralink这样，只要猴子想喝香蕉奶昔了，就会跑过去嘬管子。结果它的脑袋会正好对准充电板，一边喝饮料，一边充电。这设计，脑回路实在是很有意思！图片来源：Neuralink这场发布会的各嘉宾发言，总的来说给硅星人一个感觉，就是：我们在实验中遇到了一个技术问题 → 想了很多办法都解决不了 → 哎最后还得香蕉大法 → 没办法香蕉它真的管用啊！没想到实现赛博朋克，香蕉奶昔竟成了第一生产力……（期待回头 Neuralink 实现产品多元化，推出自主品牌的香蕉奶昔……）图片来源：Concord Food从香蕉奶昔，到猴脑的可塑性当然，除了香蕉之外，Neuralink也在用一些更加“正经”和更“高科技”的刺激方式，来训练出更厉害的猴子，好让它们转而更好地训练 Neuralink 开发下一代脑机接口产品需要的各种信号解码器、算法模型、测试工具等等。而在下面这个例子中，Neuralink 就是利用了更复杂的刺激方法。这家公司有两个阶段性目标，刚才提到了一个，也即帮助（瘫痪）人士获得运动功能。而另一个阶段性目标，则是视觉义体：通过外部设备+脑机接口的方式，帮助那些一直生活在黑暗中的视障人士，重获光明。绝大多数视障者，问题都出在眼球里，他们的视神经，大脑中的视觉皮层，很有可能仍然是完好的。于是 Neuralink 希望能够用脑机接口的方式，通过外置传感器（摄像头）来将信号直接传入视觉皮层，从而让失明者重获光明。为了实现这个目标，Neuralink 在猴子的猴脑视觉皮层部位开了颅，装了脑机接口进去。图片来源：Neuralink然而这次的工作更为复杂：不再是读取脑信号控制外设这种简单的逻辑，而是完全反过来，从外部获取的视觉内容，将它编译为原始的脑神经信号，传回到大脑里。猴子不是人，没有办法告诉实验人员自己看到了还是没看到、看到了什么东西。于是，Neuralink 又设计了一套新的刺激机制（逆相关reverse correlation，神经科学常用的方法）：图片来源：Neuralink1）用脑机接口输入的人工干预信号，刺激猴子的眼球进行移动（比如可以简单理解为）；2）用外置的眼球追踪设备，验证实际的眼球移动矢量，是否与人工信号相符；3）当结果相符的时候，使用香蕉奶昔进行激励。如下图所示：绿色线代表眼球的移动路径，闪现的白点作为对照。你会看到，猴子的眼球突然朝着没有出现白点的位置移动，正是因为通过脑机接口收到了人工干预的信号。最一开始，眼球的移动矢量和人工信号的相符的程度并不高。然而有趣的是，随着测试时间变长，次数增加，猴子越做越熟练，符合程度越来越高。图片来源：Neuralink大脑是指一种具有可塑性的组织，简单来说也即大脑内部的突触、神经元之间的连接可以由于学习和经验的影响建立新的连接，从而影响个体的行为。Neuralink 团队正是寄希望于这种可塑性，通过不断的训练来让猴子在外界信号的辅助下，获得一种非原生的低维视觉。而如果将这种技术的应用规模进一步扩容，让信号的复杂程度变高，从单一的矢量，升级为线、面、形状、颜色，让像素数量进一步增加……那样，不就能够让那些失明的人，重获视觉了吗？想法是伟大的，前景是乐观的。然而挑战仍然重重，还有很多技术门槛需要跨越。Neuralink 提供了一张模拟图。它展示了在不远的未来，通过Neuralink脑机接口的视觉义体技术，大致能够获得的视觉（注意这并不是真实图片，只是模拟的效果）。在一个理想的视觉义体套件中，通过一个安装在眼部高度的摄像机获取图像，传入手机进行信号处理，再通过脑机接口传输到大脑中的视觉皮层。图片来源：Neuralink这不禁令我想起了《赛博朋克2077》。在游戏中，主角拿到的头两件赛博义体（cyberware）之一，就是视觉义体 Kiroshi Optics。有了它，主角在正常视觉的基础上，还获得了扫描电子器件并对其进行黑客攻击的能力……图片来源：TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix回到现实世界，视觉义体暂时还没有在游戏里那么酷。麻省理工科技评论的一位生物科技作者写道指出，“马斯克宣称义体能够‘恢复’视觉——也许在很久以后的未来才能实现。能够通过义体产生的视觉并不是你和我所拥有的视觉。它更像是点状的光斑，也许能够通过组合的方式来形成一种简单的显示效果，就像老式的灯泡记分牌那样。”图片来源：@antonioregalado图片来源：MERIT即便如此，让失明者重获光明，仍然是一项有着重大意义的技术使命。当然，赛博朋克作为一种文化的诸多优秀文艺作品，也为人类过于依赖科技的未来敲响警钟。尽管Neuralink掀起的这场脑机接口技术革命令人兴奋神往，它的诸多风险仍然不可小觑。在过去一年时间里，Neuralink 也在加紧提高技术安全性，更重要的是确保使用者的生命安全。该公司的努力包括：开发了在实验室环境下，用于测试工作的，对人脑组织进行替代的技术，比如使用培养皿培植的皮质细胞进行电极测试（下图）。“最终目标是在未来产品研发和测试中，降低甚至完全消除对活体动物和临床试验者的需要，”一位 Neuralink 专家表示。图片来源：Neuralink开发了无需在脑膜 (dura) 上开创，直接在脑膜外进行电极植入的机器人手术技术（在脑膜上开创会导致恢复过程中生成大量组织，覆盖包裹住接口设备，容易带来感染隐患，并且非常不便于后期设备维护）图片来源：Neuralink将向上兼容能力（可升级性 upgradability）作为技术研发的核心原则之一。正如前一条，在颅骨上开一个硬币大小的口子，就算尽力控制创口，仍然会面临后期愈合而产生的组织的问题，对设备的后期移除带来巨大困难。升级硬件困难，所以硬件必须最大限度保证软件升级的能力。“毕竟没人想像每年换一台 iPhone 那样换脑机接口，最好的就是一步到位，”马斯克说到。现实世界中，这场赛博朋克的革命的第一把火，看来也已经点燃了。没准将来的 Neuralink，能够成为像“荒坂” (Arasaka) 那样的赛博格技术巨头……“我笑了，因为伊隆·马斯克通过NeuraLink.™直接将一个表情包发送到我的前颅皮层。哦，我的天啊，这太棒了。我眨了两次眼睛，用NeuraLike™赞了它，然后非常认真地想：“谢谢先生！请发送比特币。”我睁开眼睛，突然发现天已经黑了，而我正在掐着一个人的脖子。”图片来源：网络","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965312897,"gmtCreate":1669893633119,"gmtModify":1676538264756,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965312897","repostId":"1190139235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965304064,"gmtCreate":1669889630458,"gmtModify":1676538263794,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965304064","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Fierce storms are brewing. The era of cheap money is fast becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve began their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Right now, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released recently by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the total global debt was $290 trillion in the third quarter. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>Economic and financial market risks piled up as central banks continued their rate hike and borrowing costs continued to rise for households, businesses and governments.</p><p>From the government's perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow a lot of dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden on most families, so this is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>At worst,<b>Some components of the global financial system could collapse.</b>From the mass bankruptcy of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries escaped the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been mounting, and a large portion of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to households already in debt.</b></p><p>Such a \"ticking time bomb\" no longer exists after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but it exists in other countries.</p><p>Such as Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household indebtedness in the world, with a 180% household debt-to-income ratio. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund as some borrowers had begun cutting off payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgages in the second quarter of this year were in a vulnerable financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached six times or more.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). Debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far above that figure in the Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian countries, and if central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this percentage will move beyond 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, said recently that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand would also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, the debt of households with mortgage loans accounting for more than 40% reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about RMB 9.8989 trillion) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters and maintaining a growth trend for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. The recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debts are mainly household debts.</p><p><b>More businesses will be insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF, businesses (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments as the biggest borrowers in the cheap money era, but unlike governments, they can't solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has had the biggest impact on some so-called \"zombie companies\", which generally only make just enough money to pay off their debts. In some ways, roughly one in five publicly traded companies already meet this definition when interest rates are low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", while companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>Global defaults on junk bonds will nearly double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the $6.7 trillion high-rated U.S. corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. SMEs, which tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. They are likely to be forced to lay off staff as the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment in the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that in the lifetime of these deals, Federal Funds rate would be closer to 5%.</b><b>Minutes from the November FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released last week, showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden levers\" in the nonbank sector that could disrupt the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar has made dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnam and Indonesia real estate bond prices fell sharply; The default of Legoland in South Korea in October triggered a panic selling in the credit market, which also fueled fears of default by housing companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies do not typically face the same direct challenges as households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>In Britain, for example, former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cuts nearly collapsed the country's Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the British financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government will still face the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>The Italian public debt problem is almost the most troublesome of the advanced economies.</b>By the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt to GDP stood at 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%, Eurostat previously released data showed. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>Governments alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest by 2030.</b></p><p>The U.S. may also face a political dilemma over its debt. In the face of \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way the Biden administration currently has is to raise the debt ceiling, and that will require Republican support. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, the US economy will be dealt a fatal blow when domestic bank interest rates soar, stock markets plunge and pension accounts shrink sharply.</p><p>By contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>IIF data released last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or are at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Fierce storms are brewing. The era of cheap money is fast becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve began their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Right now, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released recently by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the total global debt was $290 trillion in the third quarter. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>Economic and financial market risks piled up as central banks continued their rate hike and borrowing costs continued to rise for households, businesses and governments.</p><p>From the government's perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow a lot of dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden on most families, so this is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>At worst,<b>Some components of the global financial system could collapse.</b>From the mass bankruptcy of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries escaped the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been mounting, and a large portion of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to households already in debt.</b></p><p>Such a \"ticking time bomb\" no longer exists after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but it exists in other countries.</p><p>Such as Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household indebtedness in the world, with a 180% household debt-to-income ratio. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund as some borrowers had begun cutting off payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgages in the second quarter of this year were in a vulnerable financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached six times or more.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). Debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far above that figure in the Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian countries, and if central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this percentage will move beyond 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, said recently that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand would also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, the debt of households with mortgage loans accounting for more than 40% reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about RMB 9.8989 trillion) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters and maintaining a growth trend for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. The recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debts are mainly household debts.</p><p><b>More businesses will be insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF, businesses (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments as the biggest borrowers in the cheap money era, but unlike governments, they can't solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has had the biggest impact on some so-called \"zombie companies\", which generally only make just enough money to pay off their debts. In some ways, roughly one in five publicly traded companies already meet this definition when interest rates are low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", while companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>Global defaults on junk bonds will nearly double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the $6.7 trillion high-rated U.S. corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. SMEs, which tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. They are likely to be forced to lay off staff as the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment in the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that in the lifetime of these deals, Federal Funds rate would be closer to 5%.</b><b>Minutes from the November FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released last week, showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden levers\" in the nonbank sector that could disrupt the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar has made dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnam and Indonesia real estate bond prices fell sharply; The default of Legoland in South Korea in October triggered a panic selling in the credit market, which also fueled fears of default by housing companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies do not typically face the same direct challenges as households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>In Britain, for example, former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cuts nearly collapsed the country's Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the British financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government will still face the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>The Italian public debt problem is almost the most troublesome of the advanced economies.</b>By the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt to GDP stood at 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%, Eurostat previously released data showed. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>Governments alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest by 2030.</b></p><p>The U.S. may also face a political dilemma over its debt. In the face of \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way the Biden administration currently has is to raise the debt ceiling, and that will require Republican support. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, the US economy will be dealt a fatal blow when domestic bank interest rates soar, stock markets plunge and pension accounts shrink sharply.</p><p>By contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>IIF data released last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or are at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965977077,"gmtCreate":1669887131999,"gmtModify":1676538263424,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965977077","repostId":"1132114091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965072433,"gmtCreate":1669863195422,"gmtModify":1676538259271,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965072433","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also support Sunac through debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also support Sunac through debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564728,"gmtCreate":1669809938264,"gmtModify":1676538247754,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564728","repostId":"1170836510","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564680,"gmtCreate":1669809884540,"gmtModify":1676538247740,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564680","repostId":"1198215522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962562272,"gmtCreate":1669809650797,"gmtModify":1676538247685,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962562272","repostId":"1178477450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}