DavidYu66 personal page - To The Moon

DavidYu66

DavidYu66

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2022-12-05

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2022-12-02

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Trillions of apples, "high in debt"

2022-12-02

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Musk's Monkey Is Driving A Brain-Computer Revolution At The Price Of 'Banana Milkshakes'

2022-12-01

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2022-12-01

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Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?

2022-12-01

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2022-12-01

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2022-11-30

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2022-11-30

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2022-11-30

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2022-11-30

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Real estate stocks usher in epic surge

2022-11-30

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The Mystery of Low Bank Valuation: From Banks Own Views

2022-11-30

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Dollar: Will 2023 Be More Like 1974 or 1981?

2022-11-29

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Unable to invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo stock instead

2022-11-29

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2022-11-29

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Musk's latest exclusive interview: Young people must learn to think critically

2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

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11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125738659","media":"市界","summary":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPh","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrillions of apples, \"high in debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 11:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd73a3a7ee0028660eb13b44cbd5058","relate_stocks":{"BK4512":"苹果概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4575":"芯片概念","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","AAPL":"苹果","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125738659","content_text":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。苹果最近可以说是麻烦不断。11月29日，马斯克在炮轰苹果后，于个人社交媒体上发出一项关于“苹果应该公布所有影响其他客户的审查措施”的投票，近223万人次投票中有85%选择了“Yes”。在此之前，马斯克对苹果App Store高达30%的抽成提出了质疑，并表示苹果曾发出威胁，称可能将自己刚刚收购的社交媒体应用从App Store下架。短暂的闹剧，最终以库克带着马斯克参观苹果总部且达成和解落下帷幕。但很快脸书创始人扎克伯克和流媒体音乐服务Spotify CEO丹尼尔·埃克就接过了马斯克炮轰苹果的接力棒，公开表示苹果App Store剥夺了消费者的选择，不合理地获得生态系统的大多数利润。但类似的指控显然不是苹果第一次面对，回到当下，苹果更为真切和近距离的“焦虑”来自不被看好的iPhone 14系列，而更为深远的“焦虑”，则藏于隐秘的财报数据之间。高企的负债率作为一家总市值超过2万亿美元，总资产规模3528亿美元，年收入3943亿美元，净利润998亿美元的全球科技巨头，苹果的负债率正在偏离大众的普遍认知，而这背后其实是与“避税”和经营策略相关的难题。截至2022年9月末，苹果资产负债率达到85.64%，是其历史上最高水平。相比较而言，苹果所在的纳斯达克，市值前十的上市公司2021财年资产负债率平均值为52.92%，其中苹果以82.03%的负债率位列第二，仅次于百事的82.52%；同期纽交所市值前十的上市公司资产负债率平均值为55.71%，其中负债率达到92.14%的摩根大通属于银行板块，与苹果并无可比性，其次就是负债率达到65.33%的沃尔玛。不论纵向比较还是横向比较，苹果的负债率都不算低，单看这一指标甚至比国内许多高杠杆发展的房地产企业更为激进。极高的负债率背后，苹果截至2022年9月末的带息债务为1200.69亿美元，其中长期定期债务989.59亿美元，短期定期债务111.28亿美元。与此同时，苹果的腰包也是相当鼓——同一时间点其账面现金及等价物、有价证券合计1691.09亿美元，其中现金236.46亿美元，长期和短期有价证券分别为1208.05亿美元和246.58亿美元。具体来看，苹果持有的有价证券中，包括234.09亿美元的美国国债，157.49亿美元的非美国政府债券，以及794.5亿美元的公司债券。（来源：公告）那么问题来了，为什么苹果在全球范围内智能手机出货量第二，且有大把现金和债券放在账上，却还要借那么多钱呢？事实上苹果一直受困于“避税”的难题，因为美国税法规定，苹果的境外所得如果要汇回美国，需要向美国政府缴纳35%的税（税改前），但苹果方面对此一直是抗拒的，认为过高的税率并不合理。外界对于苹果“避税”的质疑长久地存在着，苹果CEO库克还曾在听证会上“舌战参议员”，回击在其看来美国税法的不合理之处。但问题并未得到解决。苹果在海外的收益还是不能顺畅地回到美国，而是经过一系列避税操作被汇集到爱尔兰，再通过苹果和爱尔兰政府的一系列特殊协议，实现超低税率的纳税。海外的钱回不到美国账户，但库克接任后苹果为了进行市值管理，每年都需要斥巨资回购公司股票，同时也从乔布斯时代的不分红转变为高比例分红，这些都需要大笔的现金。市界统计，2013年到2022年，苹果在股票回购上共花费了5531亿美元，2011年以来现金流量表显示的股息支出合计达到1319亿美元。这就导致苹果在账面保有大量现金和证券的同时，需要不断借钱用于回购和分红，其带息债务在2013至2017年间大幅提升，最终形成如今“大存大贷”的局面。但这还不是苹果负债率升高的根本原因。从逻辑上看，资产负债率=总负债/总资产，只有当总负债增长幅度大于总资产增幅时，资产负债率才会上升，那么什么时候会出现这种情况？简单来说就是花的比赚的多的时候。具体来说，在负债保持在一个相对稳定水平时，只要苹果每年赚的钱比花的钱多，那么净资产就会增长，整体负债率也会得到控制甚至有所下降。但比较苹果分红和回购支出与每年经营活动和投资活动净额之和，会发现大多数年份苹果用于分红和回购的支出，都大于经营活动和投资活动产生的现金净额。这就意味着苹果赚的钱常常不够花。这种状态的不断积累下，苹果的资产增长速度远不及负债的增长速度，负债率也最终爬升至85.5%的高水平。2011年库克正式接过苹果CEO之位，2013年以来一直到2022年，苹果总资产增加了1457.55亿美元，增幅70.41%，但负债增加了2186.32亿美元，增幅达到261.99%。从这个角度看，除了充分挖掘iPhone给苹果带来的商业价值，库克的精准“刀法”很大程度上也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是其在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。更为急迫的问题在于，想要回到“赚的比花的多”这样的安全界限内，苹果当前的杀手锏依然是iPhone，于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。iPhone的最后一波红利？自2007年第一代iPhone面市以来，截至2022年9月末iPhone在全球的出货量已累计超过23亿台，为苹果创收约10.84万亿元。市场调研机构Strategy Analytics 公布的数据显示，双十一期间智能手机总销量虽然同比下降35%，但iPhone却以350万台的销量摘下桂冠。最新数据显示，2022年10月苹果在国内的月度市场份额达到25%的历史最高水平，且连续两个月是国内第一大手机品牌厂商。在此之前，iPhone 14系列并不被看好，甚至吐槽颇多。自10月份发布以来，与iPhone 14相关的报道包括《iPhone 14 把华强北坑惨了》《iPhone 14“收割”黄牛》《挤牙膏让iPhone 14吃到苦头？》……花式标题几乎一边倒地透露唱衰苹果新机的情绪，从配置到设计都被认为有着明显的痛点。“老果粉”罗永浩也在入手新机后调侃道：“苹果过去一直是真机比渲染图好看，但这些年我那个‘美国子公司’也不太灵了，这次就是很好的一个例子，所谓灵动岛的设计并不像宣传视频里那么漂亮。安卓阵营把不影响美感的居中小黑点前摄，升降式前摄，以及视觉完美的屏下隐藏式前摄全都搞出来了，为什么要做这种先在脸上涂屎，再把屎的颜色调整得跟粉底差不多的事儿？”但不管是不被看好的灵动岛，还是库克的“刀法”，虽然玩坏了iPhone 14标准版，但库克确实成功将更多需求吸引至配置和售价更高的Pro机型上——10月份iPhone 14 Pro Max和iPhone 14 Pro分别是国内畅销机型中的第一和第二，但此前iPhone 12和iPhone 13系列标准版一直销量更高。（图片来源：视觉中国）除此之外，苹果也在iPhone、Mac等硬件产品外逐渐扩大自己在生态中的收入版图——其来自于iTunes、软件和服务的收入从2012财年的760亿元增至2022财年5463亿元，占总收入比重也从7.66%提高至19.81%，参照小米互联网服务业务70%以上的毛利率，苹果这部分业务理论上也有着相比硬件更高的利润空间。这些都是苹果“开源”的方式。在这一思路下，不管是马斯克、扎克伯格等科技巨头对苹果税的反感，还是在库克商业刀法下初代iPhone光环的消磨殆尽，事实上都是苹果需要承受的代价。在三星近日发布的一则手机广告里，苹果再次成为被嘲讽的对象——一个男人坐在一堵墙头，背后是一个长得像苹果零售店的铺面，店里员工问他在做什么，男人含沙射影地说道，“在三星那边，有可折叠的手机和史诗般的相机”，店员则回应以“我们等待”，暗嘲苹果迟迟未推出折叠屏手机。这并非双方第一次在广告里“侧面交锋”。过往的广告中，三星还调戏过苹果突兀的刘海屏，埋汰过苹果的卡顿、bug频发和不防水等缺陷，还用情节对比凸显无法同时充电和使用耳机的旧代苹果，基本上把苹果历来的缺陷都数落了一遍。好在如果回头看，其中大部分bug都成了历史，三星广告中的暗讽某种程度上也成为督促苹果改进的一种戏剧性力量。在接下来几年内，如何以更加精准的“刀法”和相对有限的微创新，让iPhone 及其生态在智能手机这个逐渐萎缩的行业里吃尽最后一波红利，或许是库克眼下考虑的重要问题之一，但与此同时在iPhone之外找到“下一个时代的iPhone”，也是苹果商业帝国得以延续的重中之重。外界最期待的呈现主要包括苹果智能汽车和苹果AR/VR眼镜，前者经历8年的“难产”目前依然距离落地遥遥无期，后者则在近期迎来越来越密集的报道，在万众瞩目中呼之欲出。（图片来源：视觉中国）事实上苹果在AR领域的布局比大多数人想象的都要深远——其于2017年WWDC推出了AR开发平台ARKit，开发人员可以使用这套工具为iPhone和iPad创建增强现实应用程序，而苹果的AR/VR一旦面市，ARKit具备的能力和对应的应用程序，大部分也都可以呈现在新的载体上。比如应用于iPad、iPhone Pro的LiDAR激光雷达，因为具备景深感知能力，所以除了为现有产品提高摄像对焦能力外，更像是在为未来AR/VR设备所必需的空间测距能力打好基础。也比如iPhone目前具备的摄像头识别文字并搜索的功能，如果应用于未来的AR/VR设备，能够施展的空间也会大大得到释放。2022年WWDC之后，库克曾在采访中表述，AR领域是苹果每天关注的重点，App Store中已经有超过1400个ARKit APP，还表示“请继续关注，你将会看到我们所带来的产品”。从已有消息来看，苹果的AR团队大概率手握两套方案，一个是瞄准VR的头盔，对应的是沉浸式的虚拟体验，售价可能达到2000美元；另一个则大概率是外观更贴近普通眼镜的AR眼镜，对应的是现实加强的虚拟体验，但推出的时间点应该会在VR头盔产品之后。在智能手机市场增长不再的背景下，苹果酝酿中的AR/VR眼镜能否接住iPhone即将交出的接力棒，或许就是苹果未来几年的焦虑所在。值得思考的问题是，在苹果的负债率逼近90%的当下，未来可供库克腾挪的空间还剩多少？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965201228,"gmtCreate":1669952070464,"gmtModify":1676538277341,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965201228","repostId":"1137562033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137562033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669950387,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137562033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 11:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Musk's Monkey Is Driving A Brain-Computer Revolution At The Price Of 'Banana Milkshakes'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137562033","media":"硅星人","summary":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The revolution of brain-computer interface is coming too fast.</p><p>Musk revealed at the Neuralink communication meeting held in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, named N1, can start human testing within 6 months at the earliest.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about 6 months, everyone will be able to see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Image source: Neuralink</p><p>Banana milkshake, the primary productive force of cyberpunk</p><p>After watching the entire press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so quickly...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>As you may know, Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with surnames, and there are countless reservists without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink can't force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink had already understood a truth as early as the early days of starting in vivo experiments: a strongly twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced or reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come and experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana milkshakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a set of reinforcement mechanism: whenever a monkey participates in the current experiment and completes an operation, it will get a banana milkshake...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the better you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism of stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see in the picture below, these monkeys are doing experiments while sipping drinks from the tubes in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: doing experiments happily, drinking milkshakes happily...</b></p><p>Such a feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>First, let's look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it seems that monkeys can type, it doesn't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press next key has already been designed by the experimental staff, and it will be marked in yellow on the virtual keyboard of MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey controls the cursor to \"move\" to the next key to be pressed through its mind and brain, and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Make some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with letting the monkey type with the cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to control common electronic devices including mobile phones through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, the monkey army of this company is doing all kinds of training work driven by banana milkshakes, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"At first, it was a virtual keyboard. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, combine the graphics in the picture and the trained signal patterns to accurately judge what words the monkey wrote on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid monkeys really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves Neuralink staff a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\" and then put the charging board in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>In this way, whenever the monkey wants to drink a banana milkshake, he will run over and suck the tube.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be just aimed at the charging pad, and it will charge while drinking drinks.</b></p><p>This design, the brain circuit is really interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this press conference, in general, gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → we tried many ways but couldn't solve it → Hey, in the end, we had to do banana Dafa → There's no way banana really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to realize cyberpunk, banana milkshake has become the primary productive force...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to returning to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source Concord Food</p><p>From banana milkshakes, to monkey brain plasticity</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, testing tools, etc. required.</p><p>In the example below, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one of which I mentioned just now, that is, to help (paralyzed) people gain motor function.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: to help visually impaired people who have been living in the dark regain light through external devices + brain-computer interfaces.</b></p><p>For the vast majority of visually impaired people, the problem lies in the eyeball. Their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is most likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to transmit signals directly into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the skull in the visual cortex of the monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface in it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>This time, however, the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals and controlling peripherals, it is completely reversed. The visual content obtained from the outside is compiled into original brain nerve signals and transmitted back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not human, and there is no way to tell the experimenter what they saw or didn't see or what they saw. Therefore, Neuralink designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a method commonly used in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) Use the artificial intervention signal input from the brain-computer interface to stimulate the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results are consistent, use banana milkshake for incentive.</b></p><p>As shown in the figure below: the green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards the position where there are no white spots, precisely because it receives a signal of human intervention through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball did not match the artificial signal.</p><p><b>Interestingly, however, as the test time became longer and the number of times increased, the monkeys became more skilled and the degree of compliance became higher and higher.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons in the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>The Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity, and through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>And if the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will become higher, from a single vector to a line, surface, shape and color, and the number of pixels will be further increased...</b></p><p><b>In that way, wouldn't those blind people be able to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to be crossed.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained in the near future through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface (note that this is not a real picture, just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthesis kit, images are acquired by a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware the protagonist gets is the visual prosthesis Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronic devices and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>Righteousness<b>The body is not as cool as in the game for the time being.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk claims that prostheses can'restore 'vision-perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthesis is not the vision that you and I have. It's more like a dot-like spot, and maybe it can be combined to form a simple display effect, just like the old-fashioned light bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @ antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, restoring the light to the blind is still a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as many outstanding literary and artistic works of a culture, also sounded the alarm for the future where human beings are too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks cannot be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up efforts to improve technical safety, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Developed techniques to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells cultivated in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialers in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that does not require pioneering on the meninges (dura) and directly performs electrode implantation outside the meninges (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, and easily bringing infection risks. And very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Take upgradability as one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized hole in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face the problem of tissue caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the equipment. It is difficult to upgrade hardware, so the hardware must ensure the ability of software upgrade to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to get it done in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe Neuralink can become a cyborg technology giant like \"Arasaka\" in the future...</p><p>\"I laughed because Elon Musk via NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness, this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Praise it and thought very seriously, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was pinching someone by the neck. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Internet</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gxr","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's Monkey Is Driving A Brain-Computer Revolution At The Price Of 'Banana Milkshakes'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's Monkey Is Driving A Brain-Computer Revolution At The Price Of 'Banana Milkshakes'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">硅星人</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The revolution of brain-computer interface is coming too fast.</p><p>Musk revealed at the Neuralink communication meeting held in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, named N1, can start human testing within 6 months at the earliest.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about 6 months, everyone will be able to see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Image source: Neuralink</p><p>Banana milkshake, the primary productive force of cyberpunk</p><p>After watching the entire press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so quickly...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>As you may know, Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with surnames, and there are countless reservists without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink can't force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink had already understood a truth as early as the early days of starting in vivo experiments: a strongly twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced or reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come and experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana milkshakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a set of reinforcement mechanism: whenever a monkey participates in the current experiment and completes an operation, it will get a banana milkshake...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the better you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism of stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see in the picture below, these monkeys are doing experiments while sipping drinks from the tubes in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: doing experiments happily, drinking milkshakes happily...</b></p><p>Such a feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>First, let's look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it seems that monkeys can type, it doesn't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press next key has already been designed by the experimental staff, and it will be marked in yellow on the virtual keyboard of MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey controls the cursor to \"move\" to the next key to be pressed through its mind and brain, and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Make some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with letting the monkey type with the cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to control common electronic devices including mobile phones through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, the monkey army of this company is doing all kinds of training work driven by banana milkshakes, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"At first, it was a virtual keyboard. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, combine the graphics in the picture and the trained signal patterns to accurately judge what words the monkey wrote on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid monkeys really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves Neuralink staff a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\" and then put the charging board in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>In this way, whenever the monkey wants to drink a banana milkshake, he will run over and suck the tube.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be just aimed at the charging pad, and it will charge while drinking drinks.</b></p><p>This design, the brain circuit is really interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this press conference, in general, gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → we tried many ways but couldn't solve it → Hey, in the end, we had to do banana Dafa → There's no way banana really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to realize cyberpunk, banana milkshake has become the primary productive force...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to returning to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source Concord Food</p><p>From banana milkshakes, to monkey brain plasticity</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, testing tools, etc. required.</p><p>In the example below, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one of which I mentioned just now, that is, to help (paralyzed) people gain motor function.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: to help visually impaired people who have been living in the dark regain light through external devices + brain-computer interfaces.</b></p><p>For the vast majority of visually impaired people, the problem lies in the eyeball. Their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is most likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to transmit signals directly into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the skull in the visual cortex of the monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface in it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>This time, however, the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals and controlling peripherals, it is completely reversed. The visual content obtained from the outside is compiled into original brain nerve signals and transmitted back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not human, and there is no way to tell the experimenter what they saw or didn't see or what they saw. Therefore, Neuralink designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a method commonly used in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) Use the artificial intervention signal input from the brain-computer interface to stimulate the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results are consistent, use banana milkshake for incentive.</b></p><p>As shown in the figure below: the green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards the position where there are no white spots, precisely because it receives a signal of human intervention through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball did not match the artificial signal.</p><p><b>Interestingly, however, as the test time became longer and the number of times increased, the monkeys became more skilled and the degree of compliance became higher and higher.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons in the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>The Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity, and through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>And if the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will become higher, from a single vector to a line, surface, shape and color, and the number of pixels will be further increased...</b></p><p><b>In that way, wouldn't those blind people be able to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to be crossed.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained in the near future through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface (note that this is not a real picture, just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthesis kit, images are acquired by a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware the protagonist gets is the visual prosthesis Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronic devices and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>Righteousness<b>The body is not as cool as in the game for the time being.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk claims that prostheses can'restore 'vision-perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthesis is not the vision that you and I have. It's more like a dot-like spot, and maybe it can be combined to form a simple display effect, just like the old-fashioned light bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @ antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, restoring the light to the blind is still a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as many outstanding literary and artistic works of a culture, also sounded the alarm for the future where human beings are too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks cannot be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up efforts to improve technical safety, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Developed techniques to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells cultivated in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialers in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that does not require pioneering on the meninges (dura) and directly performs electrode implantation outside the meninges (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, and easily bringing infection risks. And very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Take upgradability as one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized hole in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face the problem of tissue caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the equipment. It is difficult to upgrade hardware, so the hardware must ensure the ability of software upgrade to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to get it done in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe Neuralink can become a cyborg technology giant like \"Arasaka\" in the future...</p><p>\"I laughed because Elon Musk via NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness, this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Praise it and thought very seriously, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was pinching someone by the neck. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Internet</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">硅星人</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a370dedf78ec8709f7980cc3b5d33703","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137562033","content_text":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。马斯克在硅谷举行的Neuralink沟通会上透露：首款脑机接口产品，名为N1，最快6个月内就可以启动人类测试。“为了我们的首次临床测试，我们正在非常努力地加紧各项工作准备，”马斯克轻描淡写地表示。“我们绝大部分的文书资料已经提交到了 FDA。我们估计大约再过6个月时间，大家就可以看到 Neuralink 装到人的脑袋上了。”Neuralink 拟推出的 N1 脑机接口（内部构造）   图片来源：Neuralink香蕉奶昔，赛博朋克的第一生产力整场发布会看下来，硅星人有一个最核心的感受：如果没有香蕉奶昔（banana smoothie），这场脑机接口的革命，恐怕不会来得这么快……为什么这么说呢？大家可能知道Neuralink这家公司过去以来一直是用猴子和猪等动物进行实验的。有名有姓的猴子，就有至少8只，没名字的预备役更是数不胜数。但是根据规定，Neuralink不能强迫它们参与配合实验……更何况，早在启动活体实验的初期Neuralink就已经明白一个道理：强扭的瓜不甜。让这些猴子做实验哪怕它们有一点被迫、不情愿，对实验效果都会有影响。于是Neuralink 开发出了一套“自愿参与”原则的激励方案：只要来做实验，就有无限量的香蕉奶昔供应！图片来源：Neuralink具体来说，就像条件反射那样，Neuralink 的饲养工作人员参与设计了一套强化机制：每当猴子参与了当前的实验，完成了一次操作，就会得到香蕉奶昔……这样，越做实验，喝的越爽。久而久之，就形成了刺激强化的反馈机制。下图你可以看到，这些猴子一边做着实验，一边从面前的管子里嘬着饮料。简直可以说是：高高兴兴做实验，开开心心喝奶昔……这样的反馈机制，在 Neuralink 最近两年的研发工作中，扮演了相当重要的角色。首先来看下面这个脑控光标的实验：图片来源：Neuralink（虽然看起来猴子都会打字了，然而并非如此，猴子怎么可能懂英语呢？）下一个键要按什么，实验工作人员早就设计好了，会在猴子面前 MacBook 的虚拟键盘上，会以黄色显眼的方式注明。而在激励机制的作用下，只要猴子通过意念脑控光标“移动”到下一个要按的键上，并发出“按下”的信号，管子里就会流出香甜可口的香蕉奶昔……在对于甜品的渴望驱使下，猴子打出了这么一句话：搞点夜点心切切吧 (can i please have snacks)……图片来源：Neuralink但 Neuralink 并不满足于让猴子用光标打字。毕竟它的阶段性目标之一，是让（瘫痪）的人们可以通过脑机信号来操控包括手机在内的常用电子设备。所以，这家公司的猴子大军，正在香蕉奶昔的驱动下，做着各种各样的训练工作，包括并不限于：点按和拖拽滑动输入手写手势识别等等……图片来源：Neuralink以手写为例：“一开始还是虚拟键盘。现在我们已经可以直接用脑机界面来读取信号，结合画面中的图形，和训练得到的信号模式，来精准地判断猴子在屏幕上写的是什么字”，一位 Neuralink 技术专家透露。这样下去，猴子恐怕真要“学会”写字、拼词了？以及，香蕉奶昔还能刺激猴子自己去给脑机接口充电！这样简直是给 Neuralink 的工作人员，省了大麻烦了……具体机制是这样设计的：他们将一棵树做成了“奶茶店”，然后把充电板放在了装饰的树杈里：图片来源：Neuralink这样，只要猴子想喝香蕉奶昔了，就会跑过去嘬管子。结果它的脑袋会正好对准充电板，一边喝饮料，一边充电。这设计，脑回路实在是很有意思！图片来源：Neuralink这场发布会的各嘉宾发言，总的来说给硅星人一个感觉，就是：我们在实验中遇到了一个技术问题 → 想了很多办法都解决不了 → 哎最后还得香蕉大法 → 没办法香蕉它真的管用啊！没想到实现赛博朋克，香蕉奶昔竟成了第一生产力……（期待回头 Neuralink 实现产品多元化，推出自主品牌的香蕉奶昔……）图片来源：Concord Food从香蕉奶昔，到猴脑的可塑性当然，除了香蕉之外，Neuralink也在用一些更加“正经”和更“高科技”的刺激方式，来训练出更厉害的猴子，好让它们转而更好地训练 Neuralink 开发下一代脑机接口产品需要的各种信号解码器、算法模型、测试工具等等。而在下面这个例子中，Neuralink 就是利用了更复杂的刺激方法。这家公司有两个阶段性目标，刚才提到了一个，也即帮助（瘫痪）人士获得运动功能。而另一个阶段性目标，则是视觉义体：通过外部设备+脑机接口的方式，帮助那些一直生活在黑暗中的视障人士，重获光明。绝大多数视障者，问题都出在眼球里，他们的视神经，大脑中的视觉皮层，很有可能仍然是完好的。于是 Neuralink 希望能够用脑机接口的方式，通过外置传感器（摄像头）来将信号直接传入视觉皮层，从而让失明者重获光明。为了实现这个目标，Neuralink 在猴子的猴脑视觉皮层部位开了颅，装了脑机接口进去。图片来源：Neuralink然而这次的工作更为复杂：不再是读取脑信号控制外设这种简单的逻辑，而是完全反过来，从外部获取的视觉内容，将它编译为原始的脑神经信号，传回到大脑里。猴子不是人，没有办法告诉实验人员自己看到了还是没看到、看到了什么东西。于是，Neuralink 又设计了一套新的刺激机制（逆相关reverse correlation，神经科学常用的方法）：图片来源：Neuralink1）用脑机接口输入的人工干预信号，刺激猴子的眼球进行移动（比如可以简单理解为）；2）用外置的眼球追踪设备，验证实际的眼球移动矢量，是否与人工信号相符；3）当结果相符的时候，使用香蕉奶昔进行激励。如下图所示：绿色线代表眼球的移动路径，闪现的白点作为对照。你会看到，猴子的眼球突然朝着没有出现白点的位置移动，正是因为通过脑机接口收到了人工干预的信号。最一开始，眼球的移动矢量和人工信号的相符的程度并不高。然而有趣的是，随着测试时间变长，次数增加，猴子越做越熟练，符合程度越来越高。图片来源：Neuralink大脑是指一种具有可塑性的组织，简单来说也即大脑内部的突触、神经元之间的连接可以由于学习和经验的影响建立新的连接，从而影响个体的行为。Neuralink 团队正是寄希望于这种可塑性，通过不断的训练来让猴子在外界信号的辅助下，获得一种非原生的低维视觉。而如果将这种技术的应用规模进一步扩容，让信号的复杂程度变高，从单一的矢量，升级为线、面、形状、颜色，让像素数量进一步增加……那样，不就能够让那些失明的人，重获视觉了吗？想法是伟大的，前景是乐观的。然而挑战仍然重重，还有很多技术门槛需要跨越。Neuralink 提供了一张模拟图。它展示了在不远的未来，通过Neuralink脑机接口的视觉义体技术，大致能够获得的视觉（注意这并不是真实图片，只是模拟的效果）。在一个理想的视觉义体套件中，通过一个安装在眼部高度的摄像机获取图像，传入手机进行信号处理，再通过脑机接口传输到大脑中的视觉皮层。图片来源：Neuralink这不禁令我想起了《赛博朋克2077》。在游戏中，主角拿到的头两件赛博义体（cyberware）之一，就是视觉义体 Kiroshi Optics。有了它，主角在正常视觉的基础上，还获得了扫描电子器件并对其进行黑客攻击的能力……图片来源：TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix回到现实世界，视觉义体暂时还没有在游戏里那么酷。麻省理工科技评论的一位生物科技作者写道指出，“马斯克宣称义体能够‘恢复’视觉——也许在很久以后的未来才能实现。能够通过义体产生的视觉并不是你和我所拥有的视觉。它更像是点状的光斑，也许能够通过组合的方式来形成一种简单的显示效果，就像老式的灯泡记分牌那样。”图片来源：@antonioregalado图片来源：MERIT即便如此，让失明者重获光明，仍然是一项有着重大意义的技术使命。当然，赛博朋克作为一种文化的诸多优秀文艺作品，也为人类过于依赖科技的未来敲响警钟。尽管Neuralink掀起的这场脑机接口技术革命令人兴奋神往，它的诸多风险仍然不可小觑。在过去一年时间里，Neuralink 也在加紧提高技术安全性，更重要的是确保使用者的生命安全。该公司的努力包括：开发了在实验室环境下，用于测试工作的，对人脑组织进行替代的技术，比如使用培养皿培植的皮质细胞进行电极测试（下图）。“最终目标是在未来产品研发和测试中，降低甚至完全消除对活体动物和临床试验者的需要，”一位 Neuralink 专家表示。图片来源：Neuralink开发了无需在脑膜 (dura) 上开创，直接在脑膜外进行电极植入的机器人手术技术（在脑膜上开创会导致恢复过程中生成大量组织，覆盖包裹住接口设备，容易带来感染隐患，并且非常不便于后期设备维护）图片来源：Neuralink将向上兼容能力（可升级性 upgradability）作为技术研发的核心原则之一。正如前一条，在颅骨上开一个硬币大小的口子，就算尽力控制创口，仍然会面临后期愈合而产生的组织的问题，对设备的后期移除带来巨大困难。升级硬件困难，所以硬件必须最大限度保证软件升级的能力。“毕竟没人想像每年换一台 iPhone 那样换脑机接口，最好的就是一步到位，”马斯克说到。现实世界中，这场赛博朋克的革命的第一把火，看来也已经点燃了。没准将来的 Neuralink，能够成为像“荒坂” (Arasaka) 那样的赛博格技术巨头……“我笑了，因为伊隆·马斯克通过NeuraLink.™直接将一个表情包发送到我的前颅皮层。哦，我的天啊，这太棒了。我眨了两次眼睛，用NeuraLike™赞了它，然后非常认真地想：“谢谢先生！请发送比特币。”我睁开眼睛，突然发现天已经黑了，而我正在掐着一个人的脖子。”图片来源：网络","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965312897,"gmtCreate":1669893633119,"gmtModify":1676538264756,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965312897","repostId":"1190139235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965304064,"gmtCreate":1669889630458,"gmtModify":1676538263794,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965304064","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal debt costs soar! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965977077,"gmtCreate":1669887131999,"gmtModify":1676538263424,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965977077","repostId":"1132114091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965072433,"gmtCreate":1669863195422,"gmtModify":1676538259271,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965072433","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564728,"gmtCreate":1669809938264,"gmtModify":1676538247754,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564728","repostId":"1170836510","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564680,"gmtCreate":1669809884540,"gmtModify":1676538247740,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564680","repostId":"1198215522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962562272,"gmtCreate":1669809650797,"gmtModify":1676538247685,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962562272","repostId":"1178477450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962648710,"gmtCreate":1669773611130,"gmtModify":1676538240258,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6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23:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Real estate stocks usher in epic surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287795435","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"翻身了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate sector, which has been in a downturn for a long time, has not seen such a scene for a long time.</p><p>November 29th, first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000736\">CCCC Real Estate</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600657\">Cinda Real Estate</a>Real estate stocks with small and medium-sized market capitalization have a daily limit. Then before the midday close, leading real estate companies such as Vanke, Gemdale and Greentown sealed their daily limit.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">Poly Development</a>There was also a daily limit during the session, up 9.61% at the close. The entire A-share real estate sector rose by 7.07% within the day, leading the rise in A-shares, with 40 stocks in the sector reaching their daily limit.</p><p>For Hong Kong stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01109\">China Resources Land</a>, Longfor and China Shipping and other real estate companies also led the sector, with individual stocks rising by more than 6%. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Shimao, CIFI and Sino-Ocean, etc., many domestic bonds of real estate companies have set off a wave of temporary suspension.</p><p>The last time Vanke's daily limit was two weeks ago, the rumor of the introduction of the \"16 Financial Articles\" caused the entire real estate sector to soar by 5%. Only this time, the capital market is even more restless. Except for the daily limit of leading real estate companies such as Vanke, the overall increase is not small.</p><p>Looking at the long-term timeline, in the past five years, the real estate sector has only increased by more than 7% once in 2020. It's just that the market was hot at that time, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 25% in just three months. The rise of the real estate sector was just a so-called low valuation repair following the rise of the banking and brokerage sectors. This is quite different from today's market situation.</p><p>The direct reason for the \"epic surge\" that the real estate sector has not seen in many years is that the spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated on November 28 that it will adjust the real estate equity financing policy, allow real estate companies to restructure and list in A-shares, and restore the refinancing channels of real estate companies in A-shares.</p><p>A-share listing, which almost stagnated after the introduction of the \"Ten Articles of the New Country\" in 2010, including Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande, Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group and other real estate tycoons, tried every means to make a breakthrough, but failed to do so. It suddenly became relaxed.</p><p>This makes the financing channels of housing enterprises further smooth. After a number of banks have provided trillions of credit support for real estate companies, and the bond financing support tools for real estate companies have continued to expand, the \"third arrow\", namely equity financing, has also been fired.</p><p>At present, on the financing side of real estate enterprises, the \"three arrows\" of loan financing, bond financing and equity financing have successively introduced policies.</p><p>Compared with loan financing and bond financing support, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's loosening of the refinancing of real estate companies has a wider coverage, and it is no longer just some leading real estate companies and high-quality real estate companies that benefit from it.</p><p>This is also reflected in the market. The first ones to hit the daily limit are small and medium-sized real estate companies such as CCCC Real Estate and Cinda Real Estate. They are the most direct beneficiaries of the liberalization of equity financing. Through non-public refinancing, these real estate companies can raise a lot of funds for policy-supported real estate business.</p><p>Like Cinda Real Estate, backed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01359\">China Cinda</a>This big tree has simultaneously acquired a lot of project resources under the background of Cinda's disposal of non-performing assets and relief of real estate companies. Including Kaisa and other dangerous real estate companies, Cinda Real Estate has intervened in the form of agent construction.</p><p>However, in addition to the rise of these small and medium-sized real estate companies, leading real estate companies will also benefit from the implementation of policies. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Including institutions pointed out that if high-credit real estate companies successfully raise funds, they are likely to further consolidate their market position, and with the repair of the balance sheets of high-quality real estate companies, the industrial chain is expected to be further stabilized, and asset prices will also stabilize., providing material conditions for the subsequent development of industrial mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>In other words, the long-awaited but rare mergers and acquisitions in the market in the past year will also be supported by this policy opening. Leading real estate companies such as China Shipping and China Resources Land will also take greater steps in mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>This is also similar to the reaction of today's market. The capital market votes with its feet and changes in stock prices, which intuitively reflects the reshaping of the entire real estate industry.</p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is pointed out that this policy adjustment is a milestone event for the real estate industry. It is helpful to boost market confidence in the short term and promote fundamental stabilization in the medium and long term.</p><p>Today, the expectations of the capital market have changed with this \"epic\" surge, and there can be more policy expectations on the consumer side, such as falling interest rates.</p><p>With the continuous implementation of policies, the credit of more real estate companies will be restored, the confidence of consumers and institutions in real estate companies will also return, and real estate will eventually embark on a road of stable and healthy development.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real estate stocks usher in epic surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal estate stocks usher in epic surge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-29 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate sector, which has been in a downturn for a long time, has not seen such a scene for a long time.</p><p>November 29th, first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000736\">CCCC Real Estate</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600657\">Cinda Real Estate</a>Real estate stocks with small and medium-sized market capitalization have a daily limit. Then before the midday close, leading real estate companies such as Vanke, Gemdale and Greentown sealed their daily limit.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">Poly Development</a>There was also a daily limit during the session, up 9.61% at the close. The entire A-share real estate sector rose by 7.07% within the day, leading the rise in A-shares, with 40 stocks in the sector reaching their daily limit.</p><p>For Hong Kong stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01109\">China Resources Land</a>, Longfor and China Shipping and other real estate companies also led the sector, with individual stocks rising by more than 6%. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Shimao, CIFI and Sino-Ocean, etc., many domestic bonds of real estate companies have set off a wave of temporary suspension.</p><p>The last time Vanke's daily limit was two weeks ago, the rumor of the introduction of the \"16 Financial Articles\" caused the entire real estate sector to soar by 5%. Only this time, the capital market is even more restless. Except for the daily limit of leading real estate companies such as Vanke, the overall increase is not small.</p><p>Looking at the long-term timeline, in the past five years, the real estate sector has only increased by more than 7% once in 2020. It's just that the market was hot at that time, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 25% in just three months. The rise of the real estate sector was just a so-called low valuation repair following the rise of the banking and brokerage sectors. This is quite different from today's market situation.</p><p>The direct reason for the \"epic surge\" that the real estate sector has not seen in many years is that the spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated on November 28 that it will adjust the real estate equity financing policy, allow real estate companies to restructure and list in A-shares, and restore the refinancing channels of real estate companies in A-shares.</p><p>A-share listing, which almost stagnated after the introduction of the \"Ten Articles of the New Country\" in 2010, including Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande, Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group and other real estate tycoons, tried every means to make a breakthrough, but failed to do so. It suddenly became relaxed.</p><p>This makes the financing channels of housing enterprises further smooth. After a number of banks have provided trillions of credit support for real estate companies, and the bond financing support tools for real estate companies have continued to expand, the \"third arrow\", namely equity financing, has also been fired.</p><p>At present, on the financing side of real estate enterprises, the \"three arrows\" of loan financing, bond financing and equity financing have successively introduced policies.</p><p>Compared with loan financing and bond financing support, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's loosening of the refinancing of real estate companies has a wider coverage, and it is no longer just some leading real estate companies and high-quality real estate companies that benefit from it.</p><p>This is also reflected in the market. The first ones to hit the daily limit are small and medium-sized real estate companies such as CCCC Real Estate and Cinda Real Estate. They are the most direct beneficiaries of the liberalization of equity financing. Through non-public refinancing, these real estate companies can raise a lot of funds for policy-supported real estate business.</p><p>Like Cinda Real Estate, backed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01359\">China Cinda</a>This big tree has simultaneously acquired a lot of project resources under the background of Cinda's disposal of non-performing assets and relief of real estate companies. Including Kaisa and other dangerous real estate companies, Cinda Real Estate has intervened in the form of agent construction.</p><p>However, in addition to the rise of these small and medium-sized real estate companies, leading real estate companies will also benefit from the implementation of policies. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Including institutions pointed out that if high-credit real estate companies successfully raise funds, they are likely to further consolidate their market position, and with the repair of the balance sheets of high-quality real estate companies, the industrial chain is expected to be further stabilized, and asset prices will also stabilize., providing material conditions for the subsequent development of industrial mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>In other words, the long-awaited but rare mergers and acquisitions in the market in the past year will also be supported by this policy opening. Leading real estate companies such as China Shipping and China Resources Land will also take greater steps in mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>This is also similar to the reaction of today's market. The capital market votes with its feet and changes in stock prices, which intuitively reflects the reshaping of the entire real estate industry.</p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is pointed out that this policy adjustment is a milestone event for the real estate industry. It is helpful to boost market confidence in the short term and promote fundamental stabilization in the medium and long term.</p><p>Today, the expectations of the capital market have changed with this \"epic\" surge, and there can be more policy expectations on the consumer side, such as falling interest rates.</p><p>With the continuous implementation of policies, the credit of more real estate companies will be restored, the confidence of consumers and institutions in real estate companies will also return, and real estate will eventually embark on a road of stable and healthy development.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676184\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c69408b096e1ffddb79e1de5762142","relate_stocks":{"02007":"碧桂园","000736":"*ST中地"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676184","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287795435","content_text":"低迷许久的地产板块，已经很久没有看到过这样的场景了。11月29日，先是中交地产、信达地产等中小市值的地产股一字涨停。随后在午盘收盘前，万科、金地和绿城等龙头房企封住涨停。保利发展盘中也一度涨停，至收盘涨9.61%。整个A股房地产板块日内上涨了7.07%，领涨A股，板块内40只股票涨停。港股方面，华润置地、龙湖和中海等房企也领涨板块，个股涨幅超6%。包括碧桂园、世茂、旭辉和远洋等在内，多家房企境内债掀起了临停潮。上一次万科涨停还是在两周前，“金融十六条”出台的传闻让整个地产板块大涨5%。只不过这一次，资本市场更加躁动，除了万科等龙头房企涨停外，整体涨幅都不小。拉长时间轴来看，近5年里，地产板块仅在2020年时有一次涨幅超过7%。只不过彼时市场火热，沪指在短短三个月里上涨了超25%，房地产板块的上涨也不过是跟着银行、券商板块上涨，进行所谓的低估值修复罢了。这与如今的市场情况截然不同。让地产板块迎来多年未遇的“史诗级暴涨”的直接原因，是证监会新闻发言人在11月28日表示，将会对房地产股权融资政策进行调整，允许房企在A股重组上市，恢复房企在A股的再融资渠道。A股上市，这个在2010年“新国十条”出台后几乎停滞，包括恒大董事会主席许家印、万达集团董事长王健林等地产大佬，想方设法想要突破，却一直未能如愿的事情，就这样突然变得轻松了起来。这使得房企在融资渠道上进一步畅通。在多家银行为房企提供数万亿授信支持、房企债券融资支持工具持续扩容之后，“第三支箭”即股权融资也已射出。目前，在房企融资端，贷款融资、债券融资和股权融资的“三支箭”均陆续出台了政策。相比在贷款融资、债券融资支持，这次证监会对房企再融资的松绑，覆盖面更加广泛，从中获益的也不再只是一些龙头房企、优质房企。这也反映到市场上，率先一字涨停的都是中交地产、信达地产等中小型房企，它们是此次股权融资放开最直接的受益对象。通过以非公开方式再融资，这些房企可以募得不少资金用在政策支持的房地产业务上。像信达地产，背靠中国信达这棵大树，在信达系处置不良资产，对房企解危纾困的背景下，已同步获取了不少项目资源。包括佳兆业等出险房企的项目纾困上，信达地产已以代建等形式介入其中。不过除了这些中小房企的崛起，龙头房企也会随着政策落地而获益。包括中信证券在内的机构指出，高信用的房企如果顺利融资，很可能进一步巩固自身的市场地位，并且随着优质房企资产负债表的修复，产业链预期也会进一步稳定，资产价格也会稳定下来，为接下来的产业并购开展提供物质条件。也就是说，过去一年市场里期待已久，但鲜少发生的收并购，也会随着这次政策开阀得到支撑。像中海、华润置地等龙头房企，也会在收并购上步子迈得更大些。这也和今天市场的反应相似，资本市场用脚投票，用股价的变化，直观地体现出了整个地产行业的格局重塑。正如中金公司所指出，此次政策调整，对于房地产行业而言是里程碑式事件。对短期提振市场信心和中长期促进基本面企稳均有助益。如今，资本市场的预期已然随着这场“史诗级”暴涨而改变，接下来在消费端，比如说利率下降方面，也可以有更多政策期待了。随着政策不断落地，更多房企的信用会得以修复，消费者、机构对于房企的信心也会回来，房地产终会走上平稳健康发展的路。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000736":0.9,"02007":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962657477,"gmtCreate":1669772899500,"gmtModify":1676538240049,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962657477","repostId":"1170581889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170581889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669769401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170581889?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 08:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Mystery of Low Bank Valuation: From Banks Own Views","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170581889","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险，比如不良贷款，而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。A股银行股持续处于低估状态","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The ability of domestic bank management to navigate new risks has not been recognized by the market. The risk here does not just refer to a certain business risk, such as non-performing loans, but a \"new risk\", which refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of overall economic model transformation. A-share bank stocks continue to be undervalued. What is even more unacceptable is that the valuation of many high-quality A-share banks is even lower than that of many large overseas banks with worse profits, which is completely unexplained under the PB-ROE framework. To this end, people from all sides in the market have given various explanations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9b36ffa054e8f96837b636aa2cb40a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem of bank valuation is not a hot topic in academic circles, and only a few papers are mostly for bank practitioners, and there are not many achievements in academic circles.</p><p>This paper presents a paper entitled<b>Discussion on the Importance of Bank Market Value and the Low Valuation of China's Banking Industry</b>(hereinafter referred to as the \"article\"), the author is Dr. Huang Zhiling, then chief economist of China Construction Bank, published in \"Credit Information\" magazine in January 2021 (sponsored by Zhengzhou Training Institute of the People's Bank of China).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047c12359cd134c85be34f118de32f8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the fact that the performance of China's bank stocks is acceptable but the valuation is extremely low, this paper discusses the reasons behind it, and some thoughts on the market value of banks.</p><p>This article is divided into three parts (this article is divided into four parts to introduce). The logic is concise and clear, and it gives us an interpretation of the low valuation problem from the perspective of the internal management of the bank.</p><p><b>How to view bank market capitalization</b></p><p>This article points out that the market value or valuation of a bank represents the market's comprehensive cognition of a bank's development prospects. In the long run, it can be used as a good evaluation index, so it should attract the attention of all parties.</p><p>Bank evaluation has always been a long-standing problem in the industry. Because the indicators of banks involve all aspects. The essence of commercial banks' operation is the balance of three properties (profitability, liquidity and security), so we can't simply use profit as one dimension, but we have to take into account risks or others. Usually, when we do bank analysis, asset scale, profitability, risk control, social responsibility and other aspects will be involved, so it is difficult to use one or two indicators to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</p><p>In response to this problem, various so-called comprehensive evaluation systems have been developed in the industry, and their principles are roughly the same:<b>Select some representative indicators in all aspects of the bank, then give a certain weight to each indicator, and then weigh and sum them to get a comprehensive score (or rating). Then use this comprehensive score to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</b>For example, the earliest \"CAMEL\" rating, the regulatory rating of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the financial institution rating of the People's Bank of China, and the \"gyro evaluation system\" of the Banking Association are generally this routine. Our team itself has also developed a bank credit evaluation system, that is, finding a bunch of indicators that we think are important to bank credit risk, empowering and summing, and getting ratings. Available in the June 2022 report<b>Bank Credit Risk Analysis: Framework and Model</b>。</p><p>This set of evaluation system requires a small range of experts to artificially select indicators and set weights, so it is impossible to be completely accurate, and sometimes some results that are inconsistent with intuitive feelings will come out. To this end, we can change our thinking: instead of being evaluated by a small range of experts, we can pull banks into the market to \"walk around\" and let the market evaluate them. Banks themselves disclose all kinds of data and information and put them in front of the whole market, which will be comprehensively evaluated by Mr. Market. Market value or valuation is a result after Mr. Market's comprehensive evaluation.</p><p>Of course, the market can make mistakes and even be manipulated in the short term. But in the long run, it is reliable, at least more reliable than small-scale experts, right?</p><p><b>Therefore, market value or valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation of banks.</b>From the point of view of this article, the bank management can't ignore the market value, and feel that it can report to its superiors if it manages the bank's performance well. Instead, it should be deeply aware that if the market value is so low, it must reflect some problems and cannot be ignored. Now we are gratified to see that the policy authorities have also taken market value as one of the assessment contents of state-owned enterprises.</p><p><b>Cannot be singly attributed</b></p><p>The article then points out that since valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation given by the market, the low valuation cannot be attributed to one or two factors (that is, one or two indicators of banks cannot be used to explain its low valuation). And this single attribution method happened to be what our securities analysts used in the past.</p><p>At that time, the background was: all aspects of the bank's operation were OK, and there were not many particularly negative indicators. Only one indicator was relatively negative, that is, there were more non-performing loans. Therefore, if a bank's PB is lower than 1 times, for example, 0.8-0.9 times, it implies that the market thinks that the bank's net assets are inflated and moisturized. The part of the discount is the hidden non-performing loans. If this part of \"hidden bad\" is exposed, then the NPL ratio of banks may reach 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf31544c23afd222183e0db6d9874999\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This method cannot be used when PB falls below 0.7 times or even lower. Because according to this method, when the PB level is low, the calculated NPL ratio is extremely high, and some stocks will even be as high as more than 20%... The NPL ratio of these mainstream banks listed in China will never reach this level (at least most of them will not). It can be seen that poor hiding can no longer explain the extremely low valuation.</p><p>Therefore, this article needs to answer a core question: So why is the valuation of banks so low?</p><p><b>Reasons for Low Valuation</b></p><p><b>This article directly gives the point of view: the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks has not been confirmed by the market.</b>The risk here is not just a business risk (such as non-performing loans), but<b>\"New Risks\"</b>, refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model.</p><p>Many environmental changes that we have learned in school (interest rate liberalization, financial internationalization, financial disintermediation, direct financial development, etc.) are really happening now. To tell the truth, these things happened later than expected. After all, we were learning these things when we went to college 20 years ago (at that time, the United States and other developed western countries had already experienced it). But what is disappointing is that 20 years ago, we started to shout these things, and asked banks to cultivate all kinds of \"internal strength\". Today, many of our banks are still not fully ready. This has to be said to be a pity and a very urgent task. Now the country is promoting a higher level of opening to the outside world. If its wings are not hard, it will not be able to find the north when flying out...</p><p>Of course, this does not deny that China's banking industry has made great progress in internal strength in the past ten years. However, the times are also progressing, and so are excellent overseas banks, so we can't be complacent about the existing report card.</p><p><b>In short, although our bank's current performance is still very good, its business model and management model (internal strength) are still not advanced enough to fully adapt to the new economic development environment (at least the market can't confirm the bank's ability).</b>As an executive of a large bank, the author takes this as the main reason to explain the low valuation of banks from the perspective of the bank inside. This is important to us<b>\"External Eyes\"</b>It's a lot of inspiration.</p><p>This article lists some capabilities that banks do not yet fully possess, but are urgently needed in the new environment, including:</p><p>(1) To restrict and encourage effective corporate governance ability, especially in terms of incentives, it is advisable to learn from overseas countries and change the existing rigid salary; (2) The ability to change the internal structure, process and mechanism, and truly realize customer-centeredness; (3) Many banks still lack international operating capabilities to cope with globalization, including specific businesses such as RMB derivatives, market services, global financial services, wealth or asset management capabilities, etc. From these perspectives, we do admit that the capabilities of many banks in China are indeed somewhat lacking. Although the performance is OK, if the ability does not keep up, there is no guarantee that the future performance will continue to be good, and sooner or later it will become a \"dinosaur\" that is about to become extinct in the new economic environment. Compared with overseas banks, of course, not all their banks are good (and uneven), but some cases make us sigh after reading them. For example, some particularly small banks, even small banks in towns, are small and have all the five internal organs, and their business philosophies and business models are very standardized. For example, Bank of America West, which we tracked last time, is a very small bank with a very mature wealth business model. Please refer to \"The Road to Create Characteristic Wealth Management for Small and Medium-sized Banks\".</p><p>Therefore, looking at the underlying capabilities of domestic and foreign banks through these \"superficial\" figures of financial performance, there is indeed a gap, which may explain our extremely low valuation. Of course, there is no need to belittle yourself. There are also a number of excellent banks in China.</p><p><b>Pay attention to the theory and practice of market value management</b></p><p>This article also puts forward some thoughts on market value management. If a bank has a good market value, it will have many benefits, which in turn will promote its own development. The market value is good, which in itself is a reflection of the comprehensive evaluation of the Bank. At the same time, it can increase the difficulty of being acquired, reduce the difficulty of other acquisitions, and at the same time reduce the financing cost and difficulty. There are even real cases in which high-quality banks in China have increased their popularity in the business community (shareholders all know it) because of their high market value and large increase, thus helping them to develop their business.</p><p>The article concludes with a few points:</p><p>(1) Market value is a comprehensive evaluation, not an evaluation of certain indicators. It is of little significance to deliberately optimize some popular indicators (such as increasing the proportion of middle income, increasing the proportion of wealth business, etc.), but to improve the overall quality of the bank, the whole bank strives for the overall strength; (2) Improve corporate governance and clarify the division of labor in market value management; (3) Strengthen investment and customs clearance work and actively communicate with investors (some banks have established normalized communication mechanisms with investors and analysts, which is worth learning from); (4) Effective use of market value resources and capital operation; (5) Establish a good image of the capital market; (6) Put an end to pseudo-market value management behaviors such as stock price manipulation. Indeed, more and more banks are beginning to pay attention to these jobs.</p><p>Because, in this paper, the viewpoint of the paper is that the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks<b>\"Not confirmed by the market\"</b>。 In other words, our banks do not necessarily lack these capabilities, or it may be: in fact, the capabilities are gradually acquired, but the market still doesn't know it and can't see it...</p><p>Because these abilities are very intrinsic abilities (so they are called \"internal strength\"), it is difficult to simply show this ability to the market with one or two indicators.</p><p>For example: People often ask me, which bank has the stronger financial technology now?</p><p>This kind of question is almost impossible to answer. The ability of financial technology is a typical internal strength, and it is difficult to simply compare it.</p><p>Here is the test of the ability of market value management.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Mystery of Low Bank Valuation: From Banks Own Views</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Mystery of Low Bank Valuation: From Banks Own Views\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The ability of domestic bank management to navigate new risks has not been recognized by the market. The risk here does not just refer to a certain business risk, such as non-performing loans, but a \"new risk\", which refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of overall economic model transformation. A-share bank stocks continue to be undervalued. What is even more unacceptable is that the valuation of many high-quality A-share banks is even lower than that of many large overseas banks with worse profits, which is completely unexplained under the PB-ROE framework. To this end, people from all sides in the market have given various explanations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9b36ffa054e8f96837b636aa2cb40a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem of bank valuation is not a hot topic in academic circles, and only a few papers are mostly for bank practitioners, and there are not many achievements in academic circles.</p><p>This paper presents a paper entitled<b>Discussion on the Importance of Bank Market Value and the Low Valuation of China's Banking Industry</b>(hereinafter referred to as the \"article\"), the author is Dr. Huang Zhiling, then chief economist of China Construction Bank, published in \"Credit Information\" magazine in January 2021 (sponsored by Zhengzhou Training Institute of the People's Bank of China).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047c12359cd134c85be34f118de32f8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the fact that the performance of China's bank stocks is acceptable but the valuation is extremely low, this paper discusses the reasons behind it, and some thoughts on the market value of banks.</p><p>This article is divided into three parts (this article is divided into four parts to introduce). The logic is concise and clear, and it gives us an interpretation of the low valuation problem from the perspective of the internal management of the bank.</p><p><b>How to view bank market capitalization</b></p><p>This article points out that the market value or valuation of a bank represents the market's comprehensive cognition of a bank's development prospects. In the long run, it can be used as a good evaluation index, so it should attract the attention of all parties.</p><p>Bank evaluation has always been a long-standing problem in the industry. Because the indicators of banks involve all aspects. The essence of commercial banks' operation is the balance of three properties (profitability, liquidity and security), so we can't simply use profit as one dimension, but we have to take into account risks or others. Usually, when we do bank analysis, asset scale, profitability, risk control, social responsibility and other aspects will be involved, so it is difficult to use one or two indicators to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</p><p>In response to this problem, various so-called comprehensive evaluation systems have been developed in the industry, and their principles are roughly the same:<b>Select some representative indicators in all aspects of the bank, then give a certain weight to each indicator, and then weigh and sum them to get a comprehensive score (or rating). Then use this comprehensive score to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</b>For example, the earliest \"CAMEL\" rating, the regulatory rating of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the financial institution rating of the People's Bank of China, and the \"gyro evaluation system\" of the Banking Association are generally this routine. Our team itself has also developed a bank credit evaluation system, that is, finding a bunch of indicators that we think are important to bank credit risk, empowering and summing, and getting ratings. Available in the June 2022 report<b>Bank Credit Risk Analysis: Framework and Model</b>。</p><p>This set of evaluation system requires a small range of experts to artificially select indicators and set weights, so it is impossible to be completely accurate, and sometimes some results that are inconsistent with intuitive feelings will come out. To this end, we can change our thinking: instead of being evaluated by a small range of experts, we can pull banks into the market to \"walk around\" and let the market evaluate them. Banks themselves disclose all kinds of data and information and put them in front of the whole market, which will be comprehensively evaluated by Mr. Market. Market value or valuation is a result after Mr. Market's comprehensive evaluation.</p><p>Of course, the market can make mistakes and even be manipulated in the short term. But in the long run, it is reliable, at least more reliable than small-scale experts, right?</p><p><b>Therefore, market value or valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation of banks.</b>From the point of view of this article, the bank management can't ignore the market value, and feel that it can report to its superiors if it manages the bank's performance well. Instead, it should be deeply aware that if the market value is so low, it must reflect some problems and cannot be ignored. Now we are gratified to see that the policy authorities have also taken market value as one of the assessment contents of state-owned enterprises.</p><p><b>Cannot be singly attributed</b></p><p>The article then points out that since valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation given by the market, the low valuation cannot be attributed to one or two factors (that is, one or two indicators of banks cannot be used to explain its low valuation). And this single attribution method happened to be what our securities analysts used in the past.</p><p>At that time, the background was: all aspects of the bank's operation were OK, and there were not many particularly negative indicators. Only one indicator was relatively negative, that is, there were more non-performing loans. Therefore, if a bank's PB is lower than 1 times, for example, 0.8-0.9 times, it implies that the market thinks that the bank's net assets are inflated and moisturized. The part of the discount is the hidden non-performing loans. If this part of \"hidden bad\" is exposed, then the NPL ratio of banks may reach 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf31544c23afd222183e0db6d9874999\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This method cannot be used when PB falls below 0.7 times or even lower. Because according to this method, when the PB level is low, the calculated NPL ratio is extremely high, and some stocks will even be as high as more than 20%... The NPL ratio of these mainstream banks listed in China will never reach this level (at least most of them will not). It can be seen that poor hiding can no longer explain the extremely low valuation.</p><p>Therefore, this article needs to answer a core question: So why is the valuation of banks so low?</p><p><b>Reasons for Low Valuation</b></p><p><b>This article directly gives the point of view: the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks has not been confirmed by the market.</b>The risk here is not just a business risk (such as non-performing loans), but<b>\"New Risks\"</b>, refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model.</p><p>Many environmental changes that we have learned in school (interest rate liberalization, financial internationalization, financial disintermediation, direct financial development, etc.) are really happening now. To tell the truth, these things happened later than expected. After all, we were learning these things when we went to college 20 years ago (at that time, the United States and other developed western countries had already experienced it). But what is disappointing is that 20 years ago, we started to shout these things, and asked banks to cultivate all kinds of \"internal strength\". Today, many of our banks are still not fully ready. This has to be said to be a pity and a very urgent task. Now the country is promoting a higher level of opening to the outside world. If its wings are not hard, it will not be able to find the north when flying out...</p><p>Of course, this does not deny that China's banking industry has made great progress in internal strength in the past ten years. However, the times are also progressing, and so are excellent overseas banks, so we can't be complacent about the existing report card.</p><p><b>In short, although our bank's current performance is still very good, its business model and management model (internal strength) are still not advanced enough to fully adapt to the new economic development environment (at least the market can't confirm the bank's ability).</b>As an executive of a large bank, the author takes this as the main reason to explain the low valuation of banks from the perspective of the bank inside. This is important to us<b>\"External Eyes\"</b>It's a lot of inspiration.</p><p>This article lists some capabilities that banks do not yet fully possess, but are urgently needed in the new environment, including:</p><p>(1) To restrict and encourage effective corporate governance ability, especially in terms of incentives, it is advisable to learn from overseas countries and change the existing rigid salary; (2) The ability to change the internal structure, process and mechanism, and truly realize customer-centeredness; (3) Many banks still lack international operating capabilities to cope with globalization, including specific businesses such as RMB derivatives, market services, global financial services, wealth or asset management capabilities, etc. From these perspectives, we do admit that the capabilities of many banks in China are indeed somewhat lacking. Although the performance is OK, if the ability does not keep up, there is no guarantee that the future performance will continue to be good, and sooner or later it will become a \"dinosaur\" that is about to become extinct in the new economic environment. Compared with overseas banks, of course, not all their banks are good (and uneven), but some cases make us sigh after reading them. For example, some particularly small banks, even small banks in towns, are small and have all the five internal organs, and their business philosophies and business models are very standardized. For example, Bank of America West, which we tracked last time, is a very small bank with a very mature wealth business model. Please refer to \"The Road to Create Characteristic Wealth Management for Small and Medium-sized Banks\".</p><p>Therefore, looking at the underlying capabilities of domestic and foreign banks through these \"superficial\" figures of financial performance, there is indeed a gap, which may explain our extremely low valuation. Of course, there is no need to belittle yourself. There are also a number of excellent banks in China.</p><p><b>Pay attention to the theory and practice of market value management</b></p><p>This article also puts forward some thoughts on market value management. If a bank has a good market value, it will have many benefits, which in turn will promote its own development. The market value is good, which in itself is a reflection of the comprehensive evaluation of the Bank. At the same time, it can increase the difficulty of being acquired, reduce the difficulty of other acquisitions, and at the same time reduce the financing cost and difficulty. There are even real cases in which high-quality banks in China have increased their popularity in the business community (shareholders all know it) because of their high market value and large increase, thus helping them to develop their business.</p><p>The article concludes with a few points:</p><p>(1) Market value is a comprehensive evaluation, not an evaluation of certain indicators. It is of little significance to deliberately optimize some popular indicators (such as increasing the proportion of middle income, increasing the proportion of wealth business, etc.), but to improve the overall quality of the bank, the whole bank strives for the overall strength; (2) Improve corporate governance and clarify the division of labor in market value management; (3) Strengthen investment and customs clearance work and actively communicate with investors (some banks have established normalized communication mechanisms with investors and analysts, which is worth learning from); (4) Effective use of market value resources and capital operation; (5) Establish a good image of the capital market; (6) Put an end to pseudo-market value management behaviors such as stock price manipulation. Indeed, more and more banks are beginning to pay attention to these jobs.</p><p>Because, in this paper, the viewpoint of the paper is that the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks<b>\"Not confirmed by the market\"</b>。 In other words, our banks do not necessarily lack these capabilities, or it may be: in fact, the capabilities are gradually acquired, but the market still doesn't know it and can't see it...</p><p>Because these abilities are very intrinsic abilities (so they are called \"internal strength\"), it is difficult to simply show this ability to the market with one or two indicators.</p><p>For example: People often ask me, which bank has the stronger financial technology now?</p><p>This kind of question is almost impossible to answer. The ability of financial technology is a typical internal strength, and it is difficult to simply compare it.</p><p>Here is the test of the ability of market value management.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676240\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e95f8d8c314466bbcd01bdb562ed3f","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676240","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170581889","content_text":"国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险，比如不良贷款，而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。A股银行股持续处于低估状态，更令人难以接受的是，A股很多优质银行，估值比很多盈利更差的海外大型银行估值还要低，在PB-ROE框架下完全无法解释。为此，市场各方人士给出各种解释。银行估值问题还不是学术上的热门话题，仅有的少数论文也多为银行从业人员，学术界的成果还不多。本文介绍一篇论文，题为《银行市值的重要性与中国银行业估值偏低的讨论》（以下简称“该文”），作者是时任建设银行首席经济学家的黄志凌博士，于2021年1月发表于《征信》杂志（人民银行郑州培训学院主办）。该文从我国银行股业绩尚可但估值极低这一事实出发，讨论其背后的原因，以及对银行市值工作的一些思考。该文分为三部分（本文拆为四部分介绍），逻辑简练清晰，给我们呈现一个银行内部管理层的视角对低估值问题的解读。如何看待银行市值该文提出，银行市值或估值，是代表着市场对一家银行发展前景的综合认知，长期看，可以作为一个很好的评价指标，所以应该引起各方重视。银行评价一直是业内的老大难问题。因为，银行的指标涉及方方面面。商业银行的经营本质是三性平衡（盈利性、流动性、安全性），因此不能简单用盈利一个维度，还得兼顾风险或其他。平时我们做银行分析时，资产规模、盈利能力、风险控制、社会责任等各方面都会涉及，于是就很难用一两个指标来评价“谁比谁好”。针对这一问题，业内开发各种所谓的综合评价体系，其原理大致都一样：在银行的各方面挑选一些代表性指标，然后对各个指标给予一定权重，然后加权求和，得到一个综合得分（或评级）。然后用这个综合得分来评价“谁比谁好”。比如，最早的“骆驼”（CAMEL）评级、银保监会的监管评级、人民银行的金融机构评级、银行业协会的“陀螺评价体系”等，大体都是这个套路。我们团队自己，也开发过一个银行信用评价体系，也就是找到一堆我们觉得对银行信用风险比较重要的指标，赋权求和，得到评级。可参见2022年6月的报告《银行信用风险分析：框架与模型》。这一套套的评价体系，需要小范围专家人为选择指标、设置权重，因此不可能完全准确，有时候会出来一些与直观感受不符的结果。为此，可以换一个思路：不由小范围的专家来评价，而是把银行拉到市场上“溜一圈”，让市场来评价。银行自己把各种数据、信息披露出来，摆到全市场面前，由市场先生综合评价。市值或估值，就是市场先生综合评价完之后的一个结果。当然，市场短期内是会犯错的，甚至会被操纵。但长期看，是可靠的，好歹比小范围专家更可靠吧？所以，市值或估值同样是大家对银行的一种综合评价。从该文观点推导出去，银行管理层不能无视市值，觉得自己把银行业绩经营好就可以向上级汇报，而要深刻意识到，如果市值如此之低，那么肯定是反映了一些问题的，不能无视之。我们现在可喜地看到，政策当局也已经将市值作为对国企的考核内容之一。不能单一归因该文接着指出，既然估值也是市场给出的一种综合评价，那么就不能把低估值归因于一两个因素（就是不能用银行的一两个指标来解释其低估值）。而这种单一归因方法，刚好是我们证券分析师过去用的。当时的背景是：银行各方面经营情况还可以，找不到太多特别负面的指标，惟独有一个指标比较负面，就是有较多不良贷款。因此，如果一家银行PB低于1倍，比如到了0.8-0.9倍，那么就暗示着，市场认为该行的净资产是虚高的，有水分的。而该折让的部分，就是藏匿的不良贷款。如果这部分“藏匿的不良”暴露出来，那么银行的不良率可能会达到8%。这一方法在PB跌至0.7倍以下甚至更低的时候，就不能用了。因为按这个方法，在PB级低时，倒算出来的不良率极其高，有些个股甚至会高至20%以上……国内上市的这些主流银行的不良率绝对不会到这个水平（至少大部分不会）。可见，藏匿不良这个已经不能解释极低估值了。于是，该文就需要回答一个最核心的问题：那么银行估值为何如此之低？低估值的原因该文直接给出了观点：国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险（比如不良贷款），而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。很多我们上学时就已经学到过的一些环境变化（利率市场化、金融国际化、金融脱媒、直接金融发展等），现在正在真正地发生。说实话，这些事情的发生比预想的要晚，毕竟我们20年前上大学时就在学这些了（当时美国等西方发达国际已经经历过了）。但令人失望的是，20年前我们就已开始喊这些事，要让银行修炼各种“内功”，时至今日，我们的很多银行竟然依然没有完全准备好。这不得不说是一个遗憾，也是非常紧迫的任务。现在国家在推动更高水平对外开放，如果自身翅膀不硬，飞出去都找不到北……当然，这并不能抹杀我国银行业在过去十几年中，内功还是有巨大进步的。只是，时代也在进步，海外优秀银行也在进步，因此我们还不能在现有的成绩单上自满。简言之，我们的银行，虽然现在的业绩还很不错，但业务模式、管理模式（内功）依然是不够先进的，并不能完全适应新的经济发展环境（至少市场还不能确认银行能力）。作者作为大型银行高管，从银行内部的视角，将这一点作为解释银行低估值的主因。这一点对我们这些“外部的眼睛”有很大启发。该文列举了一些银行现在尚未完全具备的，但又是新环境中所急需的能力，包括：（1）制约和激励有效的公司治理能力，尤其是激励方面，宜借鉴海外，改变现有的刚性薪酬；（2）内部架构、流程和机制的变革能力，真正实现以客户为中心；（3）应对全球化的国际经营能力，包括人民币衍生品、市场服务、全球金融服务、财富或资管能力等具体业务，很多银行仍然能力欠缺。从这些角度，我们确实承认，我国很多银行的能力确实还有些欠缺。虽然业绩还可以，但如果能力不跟上，并不能保证未来业绩能继续好，早晚会成为在新经济环境中即将灭绝的“恐龙”。对比海外，他们的银行当然也不是家家都好（也是参差不齐的），但有些案例让我们看了后也心生感叹。比如一些特别小的银行，甚至是镇上的小银行，麻雀虽小、五脏具全，里面的经营理念、业务模式都非常规范。比如我们上次跟踪过的美西银行，一家很小的银行，财富业务模式却非常成熟。请参考《中小行打造特色化财富管理之路》。所以，透过财务业绩这些“表面”的数字，去观察国内外银行的底层能力，确实还有差距，这可能解释我们的极低估值。当然，也不用妄自菲薄，我国也有一批优秀的银行。重视市值管理的理论与实践该文也提了一些对市值管理的思考。一家银行如果市值好，会有很多好处，反过来促进自身发展。市值好，这本身就是对本行综合评价的一个体现。同时，能增加被收购的难度，降低收购别的难度，同时也能降低融资成本和难度。甚至，国内还有优质银行因为市值高、涨幅大，在企业界增加了知名度（股民都知道它），从而帮助其展业的真实案例。该文最后提了几点：（1）市值是综合评价，不是对某些指标的评价，刻意优化某些热门指标意义不大（比如提升中收占比、提升财富业务占比之类的），而要提升银行的整体素质，全行上下为整体实力而努力；（2）完善公司治理，明确市值管理工作的分工；（3）加强投关工作，多主动与投资者沟通（有些银行建立与投资者、分析师的常态化沟通机制，值得借鉴）；（4）有效利用市值资源，资本运作；（5）树立良好的资本市场形象；（6）杜绝操纵股价等伪市值管理行为。这些工作确实有越来越多的银行开始重视。因为，前文，论文观点是国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力“未得到市场确认”。也就是说，我们的银行并不一定没这些能力，也可能是：其实能力慢慢有了，但市场还不知道，看不出来……只因，这些能力又是很内在的能力（所以叫“内功”），很难简单用一两个指标向市场展示这种能力。举个例子：经常有人问我，现在哪家银行的金融科技比较强？这种问题就几乎没法回答。金融科技这种能力就是典型的内功，很难简单比较。这里就考验市值管理的能力了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962655338,"gmtCreate":1669772580824,"gmtModify":1676538239949,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962655338","repostId":"2287903687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287903687","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669769658,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287903687?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 08:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dollar: Will 2023 Be More Like 1974 or 1981?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287903687","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美元见顶会是明年重要的交易主题","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Soochow Securities believes that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in 2023. second quarter of the year. The marginal improvement of the European and Chinese economies together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the US dollar. In 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>The king returns again, what about 2023? In 2022, among the major asset categories,<b>Except for oil and gas, which fluctuated greatly due to severe supply shocks, the US Dollar Index's performance was strong and stable</b>--2022 will once again be a big year for the US dollar (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea0f835d229fc591bae5944c9e77ce3\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Due to high inflation and the Fed's aggressive tightening pace,<b>The market tends to compare the 2020s to the 1970s and early 1980s, but the performance of the US Dollar Index in the two periods is very different</b>(Figure 2), the former dollar fell more and rose less, and the latter period witnessed the largest bull market of the dollar after the war. 2023 may usher in a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the same scenario also appeared in 1974 and 1982, so who will 2023 be more like? What are the major categories of asset allocation meaning behind it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7143e1745f4a843552b663861968155c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combining historical and fundamental analysis,<b>We believe that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in the second quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>This means that the peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme in 2023. From the perspective of major asset classes,<b>Government bonds and high-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, emerging market stocks, energy and industrial metals have the greatest resilience, and gold is also worth laying out in advance</b>； From the perspective of equity sector,<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumption, banking finance and industrial stocks are among the top earners. However, since the probability of a rapid shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is low, it is doubtful whether information technology can still lead the way.</b></p><p>The fundamentals of the U.S. dollar can be viewed from the two dimensions of the U.S. and non-U.S. economies: In the United States, the two topics that cannot be bypassed in 2023 are<b>US Recession and Fed Stopping rate hike</b>； On the non-American side, the focus is on<b>When will the recovery in Europe and China bottom out</b>。</p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade Recession? Judging from the recession experience since 1970, the US dollar has a relatively obvious recession hedging pattern.<b>Generally speaking, the the US Dollar Index bottomed out about 2.5 months before the recession started, and then entered an appreciation mode due to rising risk aversion. It peaked and fell back 2 to 5 months after the recession started.</b>This depends on the speed and strength of the Fed's pivot and the economic resilience of non-US economies (if major non-US economies recover faster, the faster the dollar will fall) (see Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec03737986009e84ee123b84973b762\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that<b>The recession brought about by the crisis of the United States' own financial system will change the safe-haven model of the US dollar.</b>Typical examples are the recession brought about by the U.S. savings and loan crisis in 1989 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007. The turmoil of the U.S. financial system will directly affect the security of the U.S. dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the the US Dollar Index before the recession breaks out. As the financial system recovers and The recession spreads to non-U.S. economies, the U.S. dollar will become a global safe-haven asset.<b>However, it is unlikely that this scenario will happen in 2023.</b></p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade the Fed's rate hike Pivot? There is still great uncertainty in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2023, but the suspension of rate hike in the middle of the year is a high probability event. Looking back at the history since 1974, as shown in Figure 3,<b>On average, the the US Dollar Index maintained appreciation as a whole before the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve, and entered a shock after the end of the rate hike (down about 1.2% within one year).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9b5cd511fa12bf6d9dbf909afee057\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The 2023 situation is likely to be somewhere between the 1974 and 1981 scenarios. Also faced with the choice of high inflation and recession, the U.S. government chose to protect the economy in 1974:<b>Sharp interest rate cuts exceeding 800bp + fiscal spending becomes more aggressive</b>, the US dollar peaked before the last rate hike, and then gradually entered depreciation; At the beginning of the 1980s, he chose to control inflation.<b>Federal Funds rate once rose to 20% in 1981 + Reagan administration fiscal reform (government spending cuts + tax cuts)</b>, the dollar reached a periodic top after the last rate hike, but has since continued to rise in the shadow of the global economic recession and emerging market crisis (Latin American debt crisis).</p><p>The trend of the US dollar from 2022 to 2023 will be between the above two scenarios.<b>It is likely to present a bimodal structure, with the first peak already appearing at the end of September 2022</b>(Before the last rate hike, this one was similar to 1974)<b>。</b>From a policy point of view, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2023 will be more balanced than in 1974 and 1980s. Faced with the risks of inflation and recession, it may choose to suspend rate hike instead of substantial rate hike or interest rate cuts. At the same time, next year, the U.S. fiscal policy will expand spending. Large constraints; From the perspective of recession-related risks, the main impact is concentrated near the recession and the early stage of the recession. Corresponding to the first half of 2023, the Federal Reserve's insistence (not easily turning to interest rate cuts) + the decline in commodity prices will cause the the US Dollar Index to rise again in the short term. Pressure on emerging market economies has risen sharply-<b>The second peak of the US Dollar Index may occur in the second quarter of 2023 (when the Federal Reserve may also suspend rate hike).</b></p><p>After the second peak, if the Fed doesn't turn further to cutting interest rates, will there be no room for the dollar to fall? No, we mentioned in previous reports that in addition to the economy and policies of the United States itself, the US dollar should also pay attention to the situation of major non-US economies, especially Europe and China-<b>Marginal improvement in Europe and China together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the dollar</b>From the historical average, this depreciation can generally reach 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d86d259b4433592bf5a6f887ef82db9\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The euro zone economy may improve significantly in the third quarter of next year.</b>After the triple impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high inflation and rapid tightening of monetary policy in 2022, the euro zone economy is likely to enter a recession at the end of 2022 and early 2023. The negative impact of these three factors next year will be marginally weakened, and the latter two will further improve, which will create conditions for the recovery of the European economy in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9891fb45c2cc91d51a55f3491981fd\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme next year. What assets should we pay attention to? What we mean by the peak of the dollar here is<b>The trend of the US Dollar Index falls back after its second surge</b>, which often leads to overall changes in market investment logic and style.</p><p>After the peak of the US dollar, which asset class has the highest victory and the greatest resilience? From historical experience, government bonds (including emerging market sovereign bonds) and investment-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, but in terms of flexibility<b>Emerging market stocks, crude oil and industrial metals (such as copper) are more attractive. In addition, the space for gold may be larger than statistically counted in Figure 6</b>, because of the bonus of the risk of economic recession, the gold market will start earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27051850346e235d3fdf9392f327c20b\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After the dollar peaks, which sector will benefit the most? From the perspective of global stock markets, the sectors with the highest returns after the peak of the US dollar are<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumer, banking finance and industrial stocks.</b>However, there is a certain degree of uncertainty about whether the information technology sector can continue to lead. A large part of its excess returns comes from the fact that monetary policy has often quickly turned to easing when facing economic headwinds since the financial crisis. This scene may be difficult to appear in 2023. In addition to policy shifts, other sectors also have important logic for marginal economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a4be050e56bce9915ae87445169015a\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: External demand has fallen due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic has exceeded market expectations. Overseas economies have entered recession ahead of schedule, and the sharp negative growth of my country's exports may come ahead of schedule. The epidemic has repeated, and strict prevention and control is difficult to lift in the short term and lasts for a long time, which has seriously dragged down the Chinese economy and caused the US dollar to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dollar: Will 2023 Be More Like 1974 or 1981?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDollar: Will 2023 Be More Like 1974 or 1981?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Soochow Securities believes that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in 2023. second quarter of the year. The marginal improvement of the European and Chinese economies together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the US dollar. In 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>The king returns again, what about 2023? In 2022, among the major asset categories,<b>Except for oil and gas, which fluctuated greatly due to severe supply shocks, the US Dollar Index's performance was strong and stable</b>--2022 will once again be a big year for the US dollar (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea0f835d229fc591bae5944c9e77ce3\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Due to high inflation and the Fed's aggressive tightening pace,<b>The market tends to compare the 2020s to the 1970s and early 1980s, but the performance of the US Dollar Index in the two periods is very different</b>(Figure 2), the former dollar fell more and rose less, and the latter period witnessed the largest bull market of the dollar after the war. 2023 may usher in a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the same scenario also appeared in 1974 and 1982, so who will 2023 be more like? What are the major categories of asset allocation meaning behind it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7143e1745f4a843552b663861968155c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combining historical and fundamental analysis,<b>We believe that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in the second quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>This means that the peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme in 2023. From the perspective of major asset classes,<b>Government bonds and high-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, emerging market stocks, energy and industrial metals have the greatest resilience, and gold is also worth laying out in advance</b>； From the perspective of equity sector,<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumption, banking finance and industrial stocks are among the top earners. However, since the probability of a rapid shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is low, it is doubtful whether information technology can still lead the way.</b></p><p>The fundamentals of the U.S. dollar can be viewed from the two dimensions of the U.S. and non-U.S. economies: In the United States, the two topics that cannot be bypassed in 2023 are<b>US Recession and Fed Stopping rate hike</b>； On the non-American side, the focus is on<b>When will the recovery in Europe and China bottom out</b>。</p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade Recession? Judging from the recession experience since 1970, the US dollar has a relatively obvious recession hedging pattern.<b>Generally speaking, the the US Dollar Index bottomed out about 2.5 months before the recession started, and then entered an appreciation mode due to rising risk aversion. It peaked and fell back 2 to 5 months after the recession started.</b>This depends on the speed and strength of the Fed's pivot and the economic resilience of non-US economies (if major non-US economies recover faster, the faster the dollar will fall) (see Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec03737986009e84ee123b84973b762\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that<b>The recession brought about by the crisis of the United States' own financial system will change the safe-haven model of the US dollar.</b>Typical examples are the recession brought about by the U.S. savings and loan crisis in 1989 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007. The turmoil of the U.S. financial system will directly affect the security of the U.S. dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the the US Dollar Index before the recession breaks out. As the financial system recovers and The recession spreads to non-U.S. economies, the U.S. dollar will become a global safe-haven asset.<b>However, it is unlikely that this scenario will happen in 2023.</b></p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade the Fed's rate hike Pivot? There is still great uncertainty in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2023, but the suspension of rate hike in the middle of the year is a high probability event. Looking back at the history since 1974, as shown in Figure 3,<b>On average, the the US Dollar Index maintained appreciation as a whole before the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve, and entered a shock after the end of the rate hike (down about 1.2% within one year).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9b5cd511fa12bf6d9dbf909afee057\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The 2023 situation is likely to be somewhere between the 1974 and 1981 scenarios. Also faced with the choice of high inflation and recession, the U.S. government chose to protect the economy in 1974:<b>Sharp interest rate cuts exceeding 800bp + fiscal spending becomes more aggressive</b>, the US dollar peaked before the last rate hike, and then gradually entered depreciation; At the beginning of the 1980s, he chose to control inflation.<b>Federal Funds rate once rose to 20% in 1981 + Reagan administration fiscal reform (government spending cuts + tax cuts)</b>, the dollar reached a periodic top after the last rate hike, but has since continued to rise in the shadow of the global economic recession and emerging market crisis (Latin American debt crisis).</p><p>The trend of the US dollar from 2022 to 2023 will be between the above two scenarios.<b>It is likely to present a bimodal structure, with the first peak already appearing at the end of September 2022</b>(Before the last rate hike, this one was similar to 1974)<b>。</b>From a policy point of view, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2023 will be more balanced than in 1974 and 1980s. Faced with the risks of inflation and recession, it may choose to suspend rate hike instead of substantial rate hike or interest rate cuts. At the same time, next year, the U.S. fiscal policy will expand spending. Large constraints; From the perspective of recession-related risks, the main impact is concentrated near the recession and the early stage of the recession. Corresponding to the first half of 2023, the Federal Reserve's insistence (not easily turning to interest rate cuts) + the decline in commodity prices will cause the the US Dollar Index to rise again in the short term. Pressure on emerging market economies has risen sharply-<b>The second peak of the US Dollar Index may occur in the second quarter of 2023 (when the Federal Reserve may also suspend rate hike).</b></p><p>After the second peak, if the Fed doesn't turn further to cutting interest rates, will there be no room for the dollar to fall? No, we mentioned in previous reports that in addition to the economy and policies of the United States itself, the US dollar should also pay attention to the situation of major non-US economies, especially Europe and China-<b>Marginal improvement in Europe and China together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the dollar</b>From the historical average, this depreciation can generally reach 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d86d259b4433592bf5a6f887ef82db9\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The euro zone economy may improve significantly in the third quarter of next year.</b>After the triple impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high inflation and rapid tightening of monetary policy in 2022, the euro zone economy is likely to enter a recession at the end of 2022 and early 2023. The negative impact of these three factors next year will be marginally weakened, and the latter two will further improve, which will create conditions for the recovery of the European economy in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9891fb45c2cc91d51a55f3491981fd\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme next year. What assets should we pay attention to? What we mean by the peak of the dollar here is<b>The trend of the US Dollar Index falls back after its second surge</b>, which often leads to overall changes in market investment logic and style.</p><p>After the peak of the US dollar, which asset class has the highest victory and the greatest resilience? From historical experience, government bonds (including emerging market sovereign bonds) and investment-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, but in terms of flexibility<b>Emerging market stocks, crude oil and industrial metals (such as copper) are more attractive. In addition, the space for gold may be larger than statistically counted in Figure 6</b>, because of the bonus of the risk of economic recession, the gold market will start earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27051850346e235d3fdf9392f327c20b\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After the dollar peaks, which sector will benefit the most? From the perspective of global stock markets, the sectors with the highest returns after the peak of the US dollar are<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumer, banking finance and industrial stocks.</b>However, there is a certain degree of uncertainty about whether the information technology sector can continue to lead. A large part of its excess returns comes from the fact that monetary policy has often quickly turned to easing when facing economic headwinds since the financial crisis. This scene may be difficult to appear in 2023. In addition to policy shifts, other sectors also have important logic for marginal economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a4be050e56bce9915ae87445169015a\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: External demand has fallen due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic has exceeded market expectations. Overseas economies have entered recession ahead of schedule, and the sharp negative growth of my country's exports may come ahead of schedule. The epidemic has repeated, and strict prevention and control is difficult to lift in the short term and lasts for a long time, which has seriously dragged down the Chinese economy and caused the US dollar to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/565763\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a477963a13237335d75caf26836fbe2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/565763","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2287903687","content_text":"东吴证券认为本轮美元的形态和节奏会介于1974和1981年之间、呈现双峰结构，第一个高点在2022年9月底已经出现，而第二个高点可能会出现在2023年第二季度。欧洲和中国经济一起边际改善将会是美元贬值的重要推手。2022年，美元指数再次王者归来，2023年呢？2022年在大类资产中，除了受到严重供给冲击而大幅波动的油气外，美元指数的表现强而且稳——2022年再次成为美元大年（图1）。由于高通胀和美联储激进的紧缩步伐，市场往往会把2020s比作1970s和1980s初，但是两个时期美元指数的表现大相径庭（图2），前者美元跌多涨少，后一段时间则见证了战后美元最大的牛市。2023年可能迎来美联储货币政策的转向，而同样的场景也在1974年和1982年出现，那么2023年会更像谁？背后有怎样的大类资产配置含义？结合历史和基本面的分析，我们认为本轮美元的形态和节奏会介于1974和1981年之间、呈现双峰结构，第一个高点在2022年9月底已经出现，而第二个高点可能会出现在2023年第二季度。这意味着美元见顶会是2023年重要的交易主题，从大类资产配上看，政府债券和高等级债券的胜率最高，新兴市场股市、能源和工业金属的弹性最大，此外黄金也值得提前布局；从权益板块上看，信息技术、原材料、非必选消费、银行金融和工业股收益居前，不过由于美联储货币政策迅速转向的概率不大，信息技术是否还能领跑存疑。美元的基本面可以从美国和非美经济体两个维度来看：美国方面，2023年绕不过去的两个话题是美国衰退和美联储停止加息；非美方面，重点关注的则是欧洲和中国的复苏何时见底复苏。美元如何交易衰退？从1970年以来的衰退经历来看，美元具有较为明显的衰退避险模式，一般而言衰退开始前约2.5个月美元指数触底，而后由于避险情绪升温进入升值模式，衰退开启后2至5个月触顶回落，这取决于美联储转向的速度、力度以及非美经济体的经济韧性（如果主要非美经济体复苏越快，美元回落也越快）（如表1）。值得注意的是，美国自身金融体系爆发危机带来的衰退会使得美元的避险模式改变。典型的是1989年美国储贷危机和2007年次贷危机带来的衰退，美国金融体系的动荡会直接影响美元的安全性，这会导致在衰退爆发前美元指数贬值，而随着金融体系恢复以及衰退向非美经济体扩散，美元又会成为全球的避险资产。不过这一场景在2023年发生的概率不大。美元如何交易美联储加息的转向？市场对于2023年美联储是否会降息尚存在较大的不确定性，但是年中暂停加息是大概率事件。回顾1974年以来的历史，如图3所示，从平均水平来看，美联储最后一次加息前美元指数整体保持升值，加息结束后进入震荡（1年内约跌1.2%）。2023年的情况可能介于1974年和1981年两种情形之间。同样面对高通胀和衰退的抉择，1974年美国政府选择保经济：大幅降息超过800bp+财政支出更加积极，美元在最后一次加息前就已经见顶，随后逐步进入贬值；1980s初则选择了控通胀，联邦基金利率在1981年一度上涨至20%+里根政府财政改革（削减政府支出+减税），美元在最后一次加息后出现阶段性顶部，不过此后在全球经济衰退和新兴市场危机（拉美债务危机）的阴影下继续走高。2022年至2023年的美元走势会介于以上两种情形之间，很可能呈现双峰结构，第一峰在2022年9月底已经出现（在最后一次加息前，这个和1974年类似）。从政策上看，2023年美联储的货币政策较1974年和1980s会更加均衡，面对通胀和衰退的风险可能会选择暂停加息，而非大幅加息或者降息，同时明年美国财政政策扩大支出面临较大的约束；从衰退相关的风险来看，主要的冲击集中在临近衰退和衰退前期，对应的是2023年上半年，美联储的坚持（不轻易转向降息）+商品价格下滑，会使得短期内美元指数再次上冲、新兴市场经济体压力骤升——美元指数的第二峰可能出现在2023年第二季度（彼时美联储也可能暂停加息）。第二峰之后，如果美联储不进一步转向降息，美元是不是就没有下跌空间了？并不是，我们在之前的报告中曾经提及，美元除了要看美国自身的经济和政策外，还要注意主要非美经济体的情况，尤其是欧洲和中国——欧洲和中国经济一起边际改善将会是美元贬值的重要推手，从历史均值测算，这个贬值幅度一般能达6%。欧元区经济可能在明年第三季度出现比较明显的改善。在经过2022年俄乌冲突、高通胀和货币政策急速收紧的三重冲击后，欧元区经济大概率在2022年底和2023年初进入衰退状态，明年这三大因素的负面影响都会边际减弱、后两者则进一步改善，这会为下半年欧洲经济的复苏创造条件。美元见顶会是明年重要的交易主题，应该关注什么资产？我们在这说的美元见顶指的是美元指数第二次冲高后趋势性回落，这往往会导致市场投资逻辑和风格整体性改变。美元见顶后，哪个大类资产胜利最高、弹性最大？从历史经验看，政府债券（含新兴市场主权债）和投资级债券胜率最高，但是弹性上新兴市场股市、原油和工业金属（例如铜）更加具有吸引力。此外，黄金的空间可能比图6统计的更大，因为有经济衰退风险的加成，黄金的行情会启动得更早。美元见顶之后，哪个板块最受益？从全球股市来看，美元见顶之后收益居前的板块是信息技术、原材料、非必选消费、银行金融和工业股。不过信息技术板块能否继续领跑存在一定的不确定性，其超额收益背后有很大一部分来自于金融危机以来货币政策在面临经济逆风时往往会快速转向宽松，这一幕可能在2023年难以出现，而其他板块在政策转向之外，还有经济边际复苏的重要逻辑。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期。海外经济提前进入衰退，我国出口大幅负增长可能提前到来。疫情反复，严格防控短期难以解除、持续时间拉长，严重拖累中国经济、导致美元冲高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962379639,"gmtCreate":1669730039621,"gmtModify":1676538231155,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962379639","repostId":"2287576021","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2287576021","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669715606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287576021?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 17:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Unable to invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo stock instead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287576021","media":"投资界","summary":"“最近VC朋友聊得最多的话题，大概就是Temu了。”聊到Temu——一个拼多多刚上线的出海项目，孟岩的话匣子打开了。令人惊讶的是，拼多多把 Temu 摆在首要位置。他透露，其实不少同行都在打听进入Temu的机会，不过目前拼多多尚未开放融资机会。”Temu”，一个拼多多自创的新词，母公司给予了它拿下海外市场的愿景。今年9月1日，Temu正式面世，首站进军北美。于是，有趣的一幕发生了：投不进Temu，VC直接加仓了拼多多的股票。","content":"<p><html><body><figure><img h=\"234\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/784/w550h234/20221129/e639-b0e59e9c237d54263e536d87b829f0e9.jpg\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure></p><p>\"Copy from China\".</p><p>Author I Yang Wenjing</p><p>\"Recently, the topic that VC friends talk about the most is probably Temu.\" Meng Yan said.</p><p>She once worked for a very leading VC institution in China, and is currently in charge of a new fund focusing on consumer technology. Going to sea is one of the key directions that Meng Yan and his team focus on. I stayed in Shenzhen for a week on this business trip and talked intensively about overseas projects.</p><p>Talking about Temu-a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Just launched the overseas project, Meng Yan's chatterbox opened. In September this year, Temu quietly went online in North America. Under the leadership of Huang Zheng's junior sister Abu, it swept all the way, and quickly topped the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore. Last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its latest financial report, with a single-quarter net profit exceeding 12 billion yuan. Surprisingly, Pinduoduo put Temu at the forefront.</p><p>\"This kind of project is exactly what we want to invest in.\" Similar to Meng Yan, Li Li has been looking at the sea circuit recently and has been following Temu for some time. He revealed that in fact, many peers are inquiring about the opportunity to enter Temu, but Pinduoduo has not yet opened up financing opportunities.</p><p>Li Li lamented, \"The popularity of Temu makes us feel more deeply the broad prospects of going overseas.\"</p><p><strong>Projects that VC cannot invest in</strong></p><p>A few days ago, Meng Yan's team just finished the research of several major Internet companies and came to a preliminary conclusion: Temu can definitely do it.</p><p>This starts with the team's research on Pinduoduo. Since the beginning of this year, the valuations of the primary and secondary markets have been upside down. Although the consumption track has cooled down, the valuations of many brands are still inflated. Compared with the valuation of start-up companies, which often reach billions, Meng Yan began to look for some cheap opportunities in the secondary market, so Pinduoduo entered the team's field of vision.</p><p>After analyzing several major Internet companies, Meng Yan found that Ali's market value has been falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>As the broader market rises and falls, it is relatively stable, and only Pinduoduo is still growing against the trend.</p><p>Just as last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its third quarter 2022 financial report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 10.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 546%. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that Pinduoduo has maintained positive profit growth.</p><p><figure><img h=\"262\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/12/w550h262/20221129/0aa9-31ac2e467598b721578dcdc04c904caa.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Pinduoduo's third quarter financial report)</h2></figure>As for the logic behind it, Meng Yan made some analysis: During the market downturn, the platform focusing on cost performance is stronger. \"In layman's terms, the less money everyone has, the more stable Pinduoduo will be\". When the European and American economies were in downturn, Pinduoduo launched the overseas project Temu, which was equivalent to \"copying\" the operating model of the parent company, and it was even more timely.</p><p>\"Temu\", a new word created by Pinduoduo, has been given by the parent company the vision of winning overseas markets. The name is clever. On the official download interface of Temu, the new vocabulary is accompanied by an explanation: \"Team Up, Price Down\", which is roughly translated into: \"Buy in a group, it is cheaper\". A Pinduoduo style arises spontaneously.</p><p><figure><img h=\"349\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/99/w550h349/20221129/4343-a345ee4be43ad42a87d3b0f05ffcb334.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>On September 1 this year, Temu was officially launched, and its first stop was in North America. Although due to foreign legal risks, \"chop a knife\" failed to go out to sea together, Temu still offered the most familiar gameplay: pull a user and reward 20 US dollars. It can be said that the \"viral spread\" of the main business is perfectly played.</p><p>Coupled with the fact that commodity prices are generally lower than peers, and the categories also meet the daily shopping needs of most North American people, Temu is on fire. In the eyes of many investors, Temu has huge growth potential-the piece of SHEIN,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The land divided by the wolves ushered in a showstopper.</p><p>\"When the domestic business entered a more comfortable area, Pinduoduo was able to withdraw and concentrate all its key forces to impact overseas markets.\" Meng Yan revealed that as far as he knows, Huang Zheng, Abu and other Pinduoduo veteran figures are in charge in person, which is enough to show that they attach great importance to the whole new project.</p><p>\"Now VC friends with US dollar background pay special attention to Temu.\" Once upon a time, Pinduoduo brought rich returns to many domestic VC/PE institutions, directly enabling a group of young investors to realize the myth of wealth creation. Now, the overseas version of \"Pinduoduo\" is here, and the story is even more attractive.</p><p>Meng Yan didn't hide it. Previously, the team established contact with Temu through various channels to communicate financing needs. However, after some contact, I learned that although Temu has always needed to burn money in the early stage, Pinduoduo has sufficient cash flow and has no plans to spin off Temu. This business does not plan to raise funds at present, and investors in the primary market can't get it if they want to invest. share. \"If financing is open, this must be a crowded project\".</p><p>The VC circle is eyeing up, and everyone doesn't want to miss this heavyweight project.</p><p>So, an interesting scene happened: unable to invest in Temu, VC directly increased its position in Pinduoduo's stock.</p><p>Junior Sister Huang Zheng is at the helm, Temu kills all sides</p><p><strong>Copy a Pinduoduo in America</strong></p><p>Who exactly is running the Temu project?</p><p>The name Abramovich surfaced. She is a heavyweight existence in Pinduoduo. Huang Zheng's fellow junior sister, formerly named Gu Pingping, has been following Huang Zheng since the beginning of his business. Over the years, Abramovich has rarely appeared in the public eye, but she is the helm of Duoduomaicai, and she is also in charge of the \"game ordering\" mode that made Pinduoduo an instant hit.</p><p>A former Pinduoduo employee revealed, \"Abramovich is equivalent to an internal CEO, and her administration, technology and operation are all in charge.\"</p><p><div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div>Abramovich's shot, Temu's importance is self-evident. In order to fight his way out in North America, Pinduoduo's investment in Temu is no less than Duoduomaicai. It is reported that Pinduoduo had planned to invest 1 billion in Temu in the first month, trying to establish a \"Team up, Price down\" brand image in the minds of users.</p><p>More directly, Pinduoduo's investor relations webpage launched a new domain name pddholdings.com (\"Pinduoduo Holdings\"), and changed the company introduction to, \"a multinational business group that owns and operates a series of businesses, including Temu, a North American consumer e-commerce market, and Pinduoduo, a leading social commerce platform\". In this introduction, Temu even takes precedence over the main business \"Pinduoduo\" in word order.</p><p><figure><img h=\"268\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/18/w550h268/20221129/1618-d2137ef68b19853b905bb022f413e5c0.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Introduction to Pinduoduo Investor Relations Network)</h2></figure>On the other side of the ocean, Temu lived up to expectations. With the \"fission-style new recruitment\", less than a month after its launch, Temu's single-day download volume surpassed Amazon and SHEIN, topping the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore.</p><p>Grabbing employees, suppliers, and markets, anxiety spreads to competitors. Someone on the social platform revealed that Temu hired people at a salary 60% higher than SHEIN's. Considering that it was inconvenient for employees who changed jobs to move, Temu directly moved its office to the subway station two stops away from SHEIN.</p><p>In addition to grabbing people with high salaries, Temu also captures suppliers with huge single dividends. Some sellers said, \"I have been working in Temu for three months, and I have stable 1,000 orders a day.\" According to rumors, SHEIN began to ask merchants to \"choose one of the two\", and even was exposed that \"once employees change jobs to Temu, they will never be hired\", but this information has not yet been confirmed.</p><p>On the consumer side, Temu is seizing the market at low prices. The price of summer women's clothing on the platform is mostly below $20, the price of necklaces and rings is in the range of $5-$10, and some small items are even as low as less than $1. A practitioner who exports on the Amazon platform complained that the retail price of Temu is cheaper than their purchase price.</p><p><figure><img h=\"491\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/241/w550h491/20221129/2b5d-e32cc133d891259079fd9bfdcb0a6c41.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>The secondary market is also studying Temu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">Dongxing Securities</a>According to previous analysis, Temu adopts a quasi-self-operated model, in which the seller is responsible for the supply of goods, the platform has the pricing power of products, and requires the seller to submit the reserve price of products. Relying on the supply chain foundation laid by its main business in China, Temu was able to keep prices to the lowest, which once caused netizens to exclaim: \"Directly rectify the US e-commerce industry!\"</p><p>At present, some media have released a set of data: Temu's average daily GMV has exceeded US $1.5 million (about 10 million yuan), the number of settled merchants is nearly 30,000, and the SKUs are as high as 300,000-400,000, covering 24 first-level categories. If the data is true, then Temu's monthly GMV has exceeded 300 million yuan. That is to say, in less than two months, Temu has surpassed the annual volume of 90% of cross-border e-commerce players.</p><p>A cross-border platform that has only been online for two months has developed so rapidly. According to previous assumptions, Temu's GMV target is US $300-500 million before the end of the year, and it will reach a target of US $3 billion in the next year, which is equivalent to 1/10 of SHEIN's current volume.</p><p>\"Temu proves such a logic: even in developed countries, the rich still only account for a small part, and there are also sinking markets abroad. Pinduoduo's logic in China may still apply.\" After reading Temu's data, a VC investor in Shanghai bluntly said.</p><p>\"Now is the best time to enter overseas markets.\" After analyzing Temu, Meng Yan said frankly, \"From the perspective of the general environment, during the economic downturn, people's demand for'cost performance 'is even greater. Coupled with the inflation in the United States in the past two years, objectively It gives platforms like Temu a more relaxed room to rise.\"</p><p><strong>When Internet giants collectively sit in charge</strong></p><p><strong>The era of going overseas is coming</strong></p><p>\"In addition to Huang Zheng, Ali Jiang Fan, ByteDance Zhang Yiming, and JD.com Liu Qiangdong have all gone overseas to look for opportunities.\" A VC close to a major Internet company lamented that almost everyone firmly believes that the time has come for China to rise to more global Internet platforms.</p><p>As Meng Yan analyzed, the domestic business of several major Internet companies is growing steadily. The outcome of community group buying that had been in constant melee before has been decided. Domestic competition can no longer \"roll\" to new heights, but foreign countries are still a blue ocean, full of various possibilities. Players who have experienced hundreds of battles have started the journey of \"Copy from China\".</p><p>Last year, Jiang Fan, the former president of Taobao and Tmall, was sent to Southeast Asia to be responsible for overseas business including Lazada. Prior to this, Lazada has changed its CEO many times, but no general has been in charge yet. In Ali's organizational structure adjustment and Zhang Yong's internal letter, the overseas business represented by Jiang Fan was mentioned for the first time as comparable to retail. It is understood that Jiang Fan may go to Europe next.</p><p>On the ByteDance side, Meng Yan revealed, \"This year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>GMV should be able to reach 2 trillion, and the ceiling is visible to the naked eye. Several core executives, including Zhang Yiming, are actively exploring overseas markets. \" Previously, Byte's overseas business TikTok had set a goal: the number of global daily active users will exceed 1.05 billion by the end of 2022. In addition, Byte also recently launched lfYooou, a cross-border independent station specializing in selling women's clothing.</p><p>\"But TikTok is still the focus at present,\" the above-mentioned investor revealed. \"They feel that the Southeast Asian market is small, and the next part of the focus is also live broadcast e-commerce in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>Nowadays, the overseas war has started, and the heroes are competing for the deer. Wu Bin, a major Internet company located in Shanghai, mentioned, \"Recently, the feeling has become stronger and stronger. Chinese companies will go overseas more and more in the near future. Platforms such as TikTok, SHEIN, and Temu have begun to challenge foreign giants. system built.\"</p><p>In fact, this wave of going overseas did not appear overnight. China's new economy has experienced more than 20 years of development, forming a unique Internet model. \"These models can be moved overseas, such as e-commerce, take-out, fresh food and other projects that have been successful in China.\" Meng Yan introduced.</p><p>Drawing lessons from China's well-developed Internet entrepreneurial model, coupled with local localization innovation, this is \"Copy from China\", and these models will become new increments overseas and create a new industrial system, which has also attracted the attention of a group of domestic VCs.</p><p>\"Recently, we have been tracking their dynamics, and we often chat with these giants, looking for new companies that will grow under their ecosystem.\" Meng Yan said that now that new platforms such as TikTok and Temu are pouring out, there will be room to grow new brands, which is the same logic as Douyin's birth of a number of new brands in China.</p><p>In addition, a leading domestic VC institution has also set up a dedicated investment team, focusing on the \"Copy from China\" project. Most mainstream investment institutions such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse, Gaorong Capital, IDG Capital, and GGV Capital have also regarded overseas and globalization as important directions for institutional development in recent years.</p><p>This is a golden field for Chinese VCs-after all, after experiencing the era of Chinese model innovation, domestic investors can explore projects earlier, and they can also predict the development space and potential risks of enterprises in advance. The myth of venture capital return of the past two decades may be taking root in a foreign country.</p><p>(Meng Yan, Li Li and Wu Bin are pseudonyms in the text)</p><p><div></div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unable to invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo stock instead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnable to invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo stock instead\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-29 17:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><figure><img h=\"234\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/784/w550h234/20221129/e639-b0e59e9c237d54263e536d87b829f0e9.jpg\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure></p><p>\"Copy from China\".</p><p>Author I Yang Wenjing</p><p>\"Recently, the topic that VC friends talk about the most is probably Temu.\" Meng Yan said.</p><p>She once worked for a very leading VC institution in China, and is currently in charge of a new fund focusing on consumer technology. Going to sea is one of the key directions that Meng Yan and his team focus on. I stayed in Shenzhen for a week on this business trip and talked intensively about overseas projects.</p><p>Talking about Temu-a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Just launched the overseas project, Meng Yan's chatterbox opened. In September this year, Temu quietly went online in North America. Under the leadership of Huang Zheng's junior sister Abu, it swept all the way, and quickly topped the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore. Last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its latest financial report, with a single-quarter net profit exceeding 12 billion yuan. Surprisingly, Pinduoduo put Temu at the forefront.</p><p>\"This kind of project is exactly what we want to invest in.\" Similar to Meng Yan, Li Li has been looking at the sea circuit recently and has been following Temu for some time. He revealed that in fact, many peers are inquiring about the opportunity to enter Temu, but Pinduoduo has not yet opened up financing opportunities.</p><p>Li Li lamented, \"The popularity of Temu makes us feel more deeply the broad prospects of going overseas.\"</p><p><strong>Projects that VC cannot invest in</strong></p><p>A few days ago, Meng Yan's team just finished the research of several major Internet companies and came to a preliminary conclusion: Temu can definitely do it.</p><p>This starts with the team's research on Pinduoduo. Since the beginning of this year, the valuations of the primary and secondary markets have been upside down. Although the consumption track has cooled down, the valuations of many brands are still inflated. Compared with the valuation of start-up companies, which often reach billions, Meng Yan began to look for some cheap opportunities in the secondary market, so Pinduoduo entered the team's field of vision.</p><p>After analyzing several major Internet companies, Meng Yan found that Ali's market value has been falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>As the broader market rises and falls, it is relatively stable, and only Pinduoduo is still growing against the trend.</p><p>Just as last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its third quarter 2022 financial report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 10.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 546%. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that Pinduoduo has maintained positive profit growth.</p><p><figure><img h=\"262\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/12/w550h262/20221129/0aa9-31ac2e467598b721578dcdc04c904caa.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Pinduoduo's third quarter financial report)</h2></figure>As for the logic behind it, Meng Yan made some analysis: During the market downturn, the platform focusing on cost performance is stronger. \"In layman's terms, the less money everyone has, the more stable Pinduoduo will be\". When the European and American economies were in downturn, Pinduoduo launched the overseas project Temu, which was equivalent to \"copying\" the operating model of the parent company, and it was even more timely.</p><p>\"Temu\", a new word created by Pinduoduo, has been given by the parent company the vision of winning overseas markets. The name is clever. On the official download interface of Temu, the new vocabulary is accompanied by an explanation: \"Team Up, Price Down\", which is roughly translated into: \"Buy in a group, it is cheaper\". A Pinduoduo style arises spontaneously.</p><p><figure><img h=\"349\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/99/w550h349/20221129/4343-a345ee4be43ad42a87d3b0f05ffcb334.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>On September 1 this year, Temu was officially launched, and its first stop was in North America. Although due to foreign legal risks, \"chop a knife\" failed to go out to sea together, Temu still offered the most familiar gameplay: pull a user and reward 20 US dollars. It can be said that the \"viral spread\" of the main business is perfectly played.</p><p>Coupled with the fact that commodity prices are generally lower than peers, and the categories also meet the daily shopping needs of most North American people, Temu is on fire. In the eyes of many investors, Temu has huge growth potential-the piece of SHEIN,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The land divided by the wolves ushered in a showstopper.</p><p>\"When the domestic business entered a more comfortable area, Pinduoduo was able to withdraw and concentrate all its key forces to impact overseas markets.\" Meng Yan revealed that as far as he knows, Huang Zheng, Abu and other Pinduoduo veteran figures are in charge in person, which is enough to show that they attach great importance to the whole new project.</p><p>\"Now VC friends with US dollar background pay special attention to Temu.\" Once upon a time, Pinduoduo brought rich returns to many domestic VC/PE institutions, directly enabling a group of young investors to realize the myth of wealth creation. Now, the overseas version of \"Pinduoduo\" is here, and the story is even more attractive.</p><p>Meng Yan didn't hide it. Previously, the team established contact with Temu through various channels to communicate financing needs. However, after some contact, I learned that although Temu has always needed to burn money in the early stage, Pinduoduo has sufficient cash flow and has no plans to spin off Temu. This business does not plan to raise funds at present, and investors in the primary market can't get it if they want to invest. share. \"If financing is open, this must be a crowded project\".</p><p>The VC circle is eyeing up, and everyone doesn't want to miss this heavyweight project.</p><p>So, an interesting scene happened: unable to invest in Temu, VC directly increased its position in Pinduoduo's stock.</p><p>Junior Sister Huang Zheng is at the helm, Temu kills all sides</p><p><strong>Copy a Pinduoduo in America</strong></p><p>Who exactly is running the Temu project?</p><p>The name Abramovich surfaced. She is a heavyweight existence in Pinduoduo. Huang Zheng's fellow junior sister, formerly named Gu Pingping, has been following Huang Zheng since the beginning of his business. Over the years, Abramovich has rarely appeared in the public eye, but she is the helm of Duoduomaicai, and she is also in charge of the \"game ordering\" mode that made Pinduoduo an instant hit.</p><p>A former Pinduoduo employee revealed, \"Abramovich is equivalent to an internal CEO, and her administration, technology and operation are all in charge.\"</p><p><div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div>Abramovich's shot, Temu's importance is self-evident. In order to fight his way out in North America, Pinduoduo's investment in Temu is no less than Duoduomaicai. It is reported that Pinduoduo had planned to invest 1 billion in Temu in the first month, trying to establish a \"Team up, Price down\" brand image in the minds of users.</p><p>More directly, Pinduoduo's investor relations webpage launched a new domain name pddholdings.com (\"Pinduoduo Holdings\"), and changed the company introduction to, \"a multinational business group that owns and operates a series of businesses, including Temu, a North American consumer e-commerce market, and Pinduoduo, a leading social commerce platform\". In this introduction, Temu even takes precedence over the main business \"Pinduoduo\" in word order.</p><p><figure><img h=\"268\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/18/w550h268/20221129/1618-d2137ef68b19853b905bb022f413e5c0.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Introduction to Pinduoduo Investor Relations Network)</h2></figure>On the other side of the ocean, Temu lived up to expectations. With the \"fission-style new recruitment\", less than a month after its launch, Temu's single-day download volume surpassed Amazon and SHEIN, topping the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore.</p><p>Grabbing employees, suppliers, and markets, anxiety spreads to competitors. Someone on the social platform revealed that Temu hired people at a salary 60% higher than SHEIN's. Considering that it was inconvenient for employees who changed jobs to move, Temu directly moved its office to the subway station two stops away from SHEIN.</p><p>In addition to grabbing people with high salaries, Temu also captures suppliers with huge single dividends. Some sellers said, \"I have been working in Temu for three months, and I have stable 1,000 orders a day.\" According to rumors, SHEIN began to ask merchants to \"choose one of the two\", and even was exposed that \"once employees change jobs to Temu, they will never be hired\", but this information has not yet been confirmed.</p><p>On the consumer side, Temu is seizing the market at low prices. The price of summer women's clothing on the platform is mostly below $20, the price of necklaces and rings is in the range of $5-$10, and some small items are even as low as less than $1. A practitioner who exports on the Amazon platform complained that the retail price of Temu is cheaper than their purchase price.</p><p><figure><img h=\"491\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/241/w550h491/20221129/2b5d-e32cc133d891259079fd9bfdcb0a6c41.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>The secondary market is also studying Temu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">Dongxing Securities</a>According to previous analysis, Temu adopts a quasi-self-operated model, in which the seller is responsible for the supply of goods, the platform has the pricing power of products, and requires the seller to submit the reserve price of products. Relying on the supply chain foundation laid by its main business in China, Temu was able to keep prices to the lowest, which once caused netizens to exclaim: \"Directly rectify the US e-commerce industry!\"</p><p>At present, some media have released a set of data: Temu's average daily GMV has exceeded US $1.5 million (about 10 million yuan), the number of settled merchants is nearly 30,000, and the SKUs are as high as 300,000-400,000, covering 24 first-level categories. If the data is true, then Temu's monthly GMV has exceeded 300 million yuan. That is to say, in less than two months, Temu has surpassed the annual volume of 90% of cross-border e-commerce players.</p><p>A cross-border platform that has only been online for two months has developed so rapidly. According to previous assumptions, Temu's GMV target is US $300-500 million before the end of the year, and it will reach a target of US $3 billion in the next year, which is equivalent to 1/10 of SHEIN's current volume.</p><p>\"Temu proves such a logic: even in developed countries, the rich still only account for a small part, and there are also sinking markets abroad. Pinduoduo's logic in China may still apply.\" After reading Temu's data, a VC investor in Shanghai bluntly said.</p><p>\"Now is the best time to enter overseas markets.\" After analyzing Temu, Meng Yan said frankly, \"From the perspective of the general environment, during the economic downturn, people's demand for'cost performance 'is even greater. Coupled with the inflation in the United States in the past two years, objectively It gives platforms like Temu a more relaxed room to rise.\"</p><p><strong>When Internet giants collectively sit in charge</strong></p><p><strong>The era of going overseas is coming</strong></p><p>\"In addition to Huang Zheng, Ali Jiang Fan, ByteDance Zhang Yiming, and JD.com Liu Qiangdong have all gone overseas to look for opportunities.\" A VC close to a major Internet company lamented that almost everyone firmly believes that the time has come for China to rise to more global Internet platforms.</p><p>As Meng Yan analyzed, the domestic business of several major Internet companies is growing steadily. The outcome of community group buying that had been in constant melee before has been decided. Domestic competition can no longer \"roll\" to new heights, but foreign countries are still a blue ocean, full of various possibilities. Players who have experienced hundreds of battles have started the journey of \"Copy from China\".</p><p>Last year, Jiang Fan, the former president of Taobao and Tmall, was sent to Southeast Asia to be responsible for overseas business including Lazada. Prior to this, Lazada has changed its CEO many times, but no general has been in charge yet. In Ali's organizational structure adjustment and Zhang Yong's internal letter, the overseas business represented by Jiang Fan was mentioned for the first time as comparable to retail. It is understood that Jiang Fan may go to Europe next.</p><p>On the ByteDance side, Meng Yan revealed, \"This year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>GMV should be able to reach 2 trillion, and the ceiling is visible to the naked eye. Several core executives, including Zhang Yiming, are actively exploring overseas markets. \" Previously, Byte's overseas business TikTok had set a goal: the number of global daily active users will exceed 1.05 billion by the end of 2022. In addition, Byte also recently launched lfYooou, a cross-border independent station specializing in selling women's clothing.</p><p>\"But TikTok is still the focus at present,\" the above-mentioned investor revealed. \"They feel that the Southeast Asian market is small, and the next part of the focus is also live broadcast e-commerce in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>Nowadays, the overseas war has started, and the heroes are competing for the deer. Wu Bin, a major Internet company located in Shanghai, mentioned, \"Recently, the feeling has become stronger and stronger. Chinese companies will go overseas more and more in the near future. Platforms such as TikTok, SHEIN, and Temu have begun to challenge foreign giants. system built.\"</p><p>In fact, this wave of going overseas did not appear overnight. China's new economy has experienced more than 20 years of development, forming a unique Internet model. \"These models can be moved overseas, such as e-commerce, take-out, fresh food and other projects that have been successful in China.\" Meng Yan introduced.</p><p>Drawing lessons from China's well-developed Internet entrepreneurial model, coupled with local localization innovation, this is \"Copy from China\", and these models will become new increments overseas and create a new industrial system, which has also attracted the attention of a group of domestic VCs.</p><p>\"Recently, we have been tracking their dynamics, and we often chat with these giants, looking for new companies that will grow under their ecosystem.\" Meng Yan said that now that new platforms such as TikTok and Temu are pouring out, there will be room to grow new brands, which is the same logic as Douyin's birth of a number of new brands in China.</p><p>In addition, a leading domestic VC institution has also set up a dedicated investment team, focusing on the \"Copy from China\" project. Most mainstream investment institutions such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse, Gaorong Capital, IDG Capital, and GGV Capital have also regarded overseas and globalization as important directions for institutional development in recent years.</p><p>This is a golden field for Chinese VCs-after all, after experiencing the era of Chinese model innovation, domestic investors can explore projects earlier, and they can also predict the development space and potential risks of enterprises in advance. The myth of venture capital return of the past two decades may be taking root in a foreign country.</p><p>(Meng Yan, Li Li and Wu Bin are pseudonyms in the text)</p><p><div></div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-11-29/detail-imqmmthc6438488.d.html?vt=4\">投资界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/667/w400h267/20221129/0e0e-ecfa3dd00d44bed384baf5ae1ef60c51.jpg/w120h90l50t1d40.jpg","relate_stocks":{"VC":"伟世通","LU0757428866.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AE\" (USD) ACC","PDD":"拼多多","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1815336091.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","BK4558":"双十一","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-11-29/detail-imqmmthc6438488.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287576021","content_text":"“Copy from China”。\n作者 I 杨文静\n“最近VC朋友聊得最多的话题，大概就是Temu了。”孟岩说。\n她曾任职于国内一家非常头部VC机构，目前执掌一家专注消费科技方向的新基金。出海，便是孟岩和团队重点关注的方向之一。这次出差深圳待了一周，密集聊了一波出海项目。\n聊到Temu——一个拼多多刚上线的出海项目，孟岩的话匣子打开了。今年9月，Temu悄悄上线北美，在黄峥师妹阿布的带领下一路横扫，迅速登顶美国APPstore免费购物应用榜单第一。昨晚（11月28日），拼多多发布了最新财报，单季净利润超120亿元。令人惊讶的是，拼多多把 Temu 摆在首要位置。\n“这种项目正是我们想投的。”和孟岩类似，李笠最近一直在看出海赛道，已经跟踪了Temu一段时间。他透露，其实不少同行都在打听进入Temu的机会，不过目前拼多多尚未开放融资机会。\n李笠感叹，“Temu的火爆，让我们更深刻感受到出海广阔的前景。”\nVC投不进去的项目\n几天前，孟岩团队刚做完几个互联网大厂的研究，得出初步结论：Temu肯定能做起来。\n这要从团队对拼多多的研究说起。今年以来，一二级市场估值倒挂，消费赛道虽然冷却，但不少品牌估值仍然虚高。相比初创公司估值动辄就喊到数十亿，孟岩开始在二级市场寻找一些便宜的机会，于是拼多多进入了团队的视野。\n把几个互联网大厂分析一遍，孟岩发现，阿里的市值一直在跌，京东随着大盘涨跌，相对平稳，只有拼多多仍在逆势增长。\n正如昨晚（11月28日），拼多多发布了2022年第三季度财报。报告期内，公司实现营收高达355亿元，同比增长65.1%；归属于普通股股东的净利润为105.9亿元，同比上涨546%，这已经是拼多多连续第六个季度维持利润正增长了。\n\n\n（拼多多三季度财报）\n\n至于背后的逻辑，孟岩作了一番分析：市场下行时期，主打性价比的平台反而更加坚挺。“通俗地说，大家越没钱，拼多多越稳”。而在欧美经济下行的时候，拼多多推出了出海项目Temu，相当于“复制”了母公司的运营模式，更是来得及时。\n”Temu”，一个拼多多自创的新词，母公司给予了它拿下海外市场的愿景。这个名字取得巧妙，在Temu官方下载界面上，新词汇附带着解释：“Team Up，Price Down”，中文翻译过来大致是：“组团买，更便宜”。一股拼多多风格油然而生。\n\n\n\n\n今年9月1日，Temu正式面世，首站进军北美。虽然因国外法律风险，“砍一刀”没能一起出海，但Temu还是祭出了最熟悉的玩法：拉一个用户，奖励20美金。可谓把主业的“病毒式传播”玩得炉火纯青。\n加上商品价格普遍低于同行，品类也满足了大多数北美人民群体的日常购物需求，Temu火了。在不少投资人看来，Temu增长潜力巨大——那片被SHEIN、亚马逊等群狼分割的土地迎来了搅局者。\n“当国内业务进入一个较为舒适的区域，拼多多得以抽身出来，集中所有重点兵力冲击海外市场。” 孟岩透露，据他所知，黄峥、阿布等拼多多元老级人物亲自坐镇，足以见他们对整个新项目的重视。\n“现在美元背景的VC朋友特别关注Temu。”曾几何时，拼多多给国内不少VC/PE机构带来了丰厚的回报，直接使一批年轻投资人实现造富神话。现在，海外版“拼多多”来了，故事更加诱人。\n孟岩并不掩饰，此前团队通过各种渠道跟Temu建立联系，沟通融资需求。不过一番接触后了解到，虽然Temu前期一直需要烧钱，但拼多多现金流充足，并没有分拆Temu的计划，这一业务目前也不打算融资，一级市场的投资人想投也拿不到份额。“如果开放融资，这一定是个挤破头的项目”。\nVC圈虎视眈眈，所有人不愿眼睁睁错过这个重量级项目。\n于是，有趣的一幕发生了：投不进Temu，VC直接加仓了拼多多的股票。\n黄峥师妹掌舵，Temu大杀四方\n在美国复制一个拼多多\n到底谁在执掌Temu项目？\n阿布这个名字浮出水面。她是拼多多一个重量级存在，这位黄峥的同门师妹原名叫顾娉娉，从黄峥创业之初就一直追随左右。多年来，阿布鲜少出现在公众视野中，但多多买菜的掌舵者是她，让拼多多一炮而红的“游戏拼单”模式同样由她操刀。\n一位拼多多前员工透露，“阿布相当于内部CEO，行政、技术、运营都归她管。”\n阿布出手，Temu的重要程度不言而喻。为了在北美杀出一条血路，拼多多对Temu的投入不亚于多多买菜。有报道称，拼多多曾计划第一个月为Temu投入10亿，试图在用户心中建立“Team up，Price down”的品牌形象。\n更直接的是，拼多多的投资者关系网页启用了新域名pddholdings.com（“拼多多控股”），并将公司介绍改为，“一家拥有并经营一系列业务的跨国商业集团，包括北美消费者电子商务市场Temu和头部社交商务平台拼多多”，在这一则介绍中，Temu甚至在语序上优先于主业“拼多多”。\n\n\n（拼多多投资者关系网简介）\n\n在大洋彼岸的另一头，Temu也不负众望。凭借“裂变式拉新”，上线一个月不到，Temu的单日下载量就超越了亚马逊和SHEIN，登顶美国APPstore免费购物应用榜单第一。\n抢员工、抢供应商、抢市场，焦虑传到了竞争对手这一端。社交平台上有人透露，Temu以高出SHEIN百分之六十的薪水挖人，考虑到跳槽的员工不方便搬家，Temu直接把办公地点挪到SHEIN两站开外的地铁站边。\n除了高薪抢人，Temu还以巨额单量红利拿住供应商。有卖家称，“在Temu做了三个月，一天稳定1000单”。传闻中，SHEIN开始要求商家“二选一”，甚至被曝出“员工一旦跳槽Temu，永不录用”的言论，但这些信息目前尚未得到证实。\n而在消费者一端，Temu更是低价抢占市场。平台上的夏季女装价格多在20美元以下，项链、戒指的价格在5-10美元的区间内，一些小物件甚至低到1美元以下。一位在亚马逊平台上做出口的从业者吐槽，Temu的零售价比他们的进货价还便宜。\n\n\n\n\n二级市场也在研究Temu。东兴证券此前分析，Temu采取类自营模式，卖家负责供货，平台掌握商品定价权，并要求卖家报送产品底价。凭借主业在国内打下的供应链基础，Temu得以将价格压到了最低，一度引发网友惊呼：“直接整顿美国电商行业！”\n目前，有媒体公布了一组数据：Temu的日均GMV已经突破150万美元（约1000万人民币），入驻商家数量近3万个，SKU高达30-40万，涵盖24个一级类目。如果数据属实，那么Temu月度GMV就已超3亿人民币，也就是说，两个月不到，Temu就超越了跨境电商9成玩家一年的体量。\n一家才上线两月的跨境平台，发展势头如此迅猛。按照之前的设想，年底前Temu的GMV目标是3-5亿美元，并在未来一年达成30亿美元的目标，这相当于SHEIN目前体量的1/10。\n“Temu证明了这样一个逻辑：即便是在发达国家，有钱人依然只占很小的一部分，国外同样有下沉市场，拼多多在中国的那套逻辑或许依然适用。”看过Temu的数据后，上海一位VC投资人直言。\n“现在正是进入海外市场最好的时机。”分析完Temu，孟岩坦言，“从大环境来看，经济下行时期，人们对‘性价比’的需求更甚，加上这两年美国通胀，客观上给了Temu这类平台更宽松的崛起空间。”\n当互联网大佬集体坐镇\n出海大时代来了\n“除了黄峥，阿里蒋凡、字节跳动张一鸣、京东刘强东都去海外找机会。”一位接近互联网大厂的VC感叹，几乎所有人都坚信，中国崛起更多全球性互联网平台的时候到了。\n正如孟岩分析，几个互联网大厂的国内业务正在稳定增长，此前混战不休的社区团购胜负已定，国内竞争再也“卷”不出新高度了，国外却还是一片蓝海，充满着各种可能性。身经百战的玩家们，开始了“Copy from China”之旅。\n去年，原淘宝、天猫总裁蒋凡被派到了东南亚，负责包括Lazada在内的海外业务。在此之前，Lazada多次更换CEO，但还没有一员大将坐镇。而在阿里的组织架构调整和张勇的内部信中，蒋凡所代表的海外业务首次被提到了与零售比肩的位置。据了解，蒋凡下一步可能还要去欧洲。\n而在字节跳动这边，孟岩透露，“今年抖音GMV应该能到2万亿，天花板肉眼可见。包括张一鸣在内的几个核心高管，都在积极开拓海外市场。”此前，字节的海外业务TikTok已经定下目标：2022年底全球日活用户数超10.5亿。此外，字节还在不久前推出了专门卖女装的跨境独立站lfYooou。\n“但目前TikTok依然是重点”，上述投资人透露，“他们觉得东南亚市场小，下一部分重心也是欧美的直播电商。”\n如今，海外烽烟已起，群雄逐鹿。位于上海某互联网大厂的吴彬提到，“最近感受越来越强烈，中国公司在不远的未来，会越来越多的出海。TikTok、SHEIN、Temu等平台，已经开始挑战国外巨头构建的体系。”\n实际上，这波出海浪潮并非一朝一夕出现。中国新经济经历过去20多年的发展，形成了独特的互联网模式。“这些模式是可以搬到海外去的，比如在中国已经成功的电商、外卖、生鲜等项目。”孟岩介绍。\n借鉴中国已经发展完善的互联网创业模式，再加以当地本土化创新，这便是“Copy from China”，而这些模式去到海外又将成为新的增量，创造出新的产业体系，这也吸引了一批国内VC的关注。\n“最近我们一直在追踪他们的动态，也经常跟这些巨头聊，寻找还会在他们的生态下长出来的新公司。”孟岩说，现在TikTok、Temu等新平台往外涌，会有空间长出新品牌来，这与抖音在国内催生一批新品牌的逻辑一样。\n此外，国内某头部VC机构也已经设置了专门的投资团队，重点关注“Copy from China”的项目。红杉中国、高瓴、高榕资本、IDG资本、GGV纪源资本等大多数主流投资机构，同样在近年将出海和全球化作为了机构发展的重要方向。\n这是属于中国VC们的一个黄金领域——毕竟亲历了中国模式创新时代，国内投资人能够更早发掘项目，也能够提前预知企业的发展空间以及潜在风险。过去二十年的创投回报神话，也许正在异国他乡生根发芽。\n（文中孟岩、李笠、吴彬为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VC":1,"PDD":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962348596,"gmtCreate":1669729171615,"gmtModify":1676538230878,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962348596","repostId":"2287719775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962920950,"gmtCreate":1669698831070,"gmtModify":1676538225430,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962920950","repostId":"2286561052","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286561052","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669625645,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286561052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 16:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Musk's latest exclusive interview: Young people must learn to think critically","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286561052","media":"市场资讯","summary":"如果在年轻的时候学习批判性思维，也可以避免人们的大脑建立错误的概念。","content":"<p><html><body>Source: Yabuli Entrepreneur Forum CEF</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/111/w550h361/20221128/b0fb-97720ea340482e21bb2d44c69f83050f.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Recently, at the B20 G20 Business Summit held in Bali, Indonesia, Elon Musk accepted a remote interview with entrepreneur and Indonesian Minister of Education, Culture, Research and Technology Nadeem Makarim.</p><p>Musk shared his views on education, learning, and explained the first principles of physics as a tool.</p><p><font>The following is the full text of the interview (with deletions):</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font><font>One of the things that a lot of people get confused about is how can you do so much? What Are Your Productivity Tools?</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Well, I do invest a lot of time. I'm not sure if I would recommend my practice to others,</font><font><font>Because I spend almost all my time working. I rarely take a break, even a Sunday.</font></font></p><p>Regarding tools for understanding the world, I think the physics framework is very helpful. In physics, we should think from the perspective of first principles.</p><p>For a particular situation, you try to understand the most basic truth and then reason based on it. Then, test your conclusions against what you believe to be fundamental truth.</p><p>In physics, it's like checking if you're violating the law of conservation of energy, or conservation of momentum, or something like that. It should always be assumed that we are wrong to some extent, and at the same time want to reduce the mistakes. This is very important.</p><p>It's a bit hard to cross pride, but it's great for getting to the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>This is an iterative process, constantly holding a healthy skepticism, and of course, a lot of time you invest.</font></font><font><font>I've noticed that when you try to make a change, the resistance that comes with change is very strong and very painful. There will be a whole group of people, who I classify as naysayers, who are constantly trying to say, what you are trying to achieve is impossible.</font></font><font><font>How do you deal with these naysayers?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I want to go back to physics, the only thing that is really impossible, is to break the laws of physics. As long as the laws of physics are not broken, anything is possible.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Anyone's opinion doesn't matter, physics is the law, everything else is advice.</font></font></font><font><font>I've seen many people break the law, but I've never seen anyone break the laws of physics.</font></font></p><p><font>Nadim: Anything is possible within the laws of physics?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Of course, you can also challenge the laws of physics, but they have been challenged enough, and they are very adaptable.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>Have there ever been a few landmark events that happened in your childhood or teenage years and had the most profound impact on you today?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I read a lot of science fiction and fantasy books, and I love movies like Star Trek and Star Wars.</font><font>Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a cinema.</font><font>At that time I</font><font>Only six,</font><font>To me</font><font>Have a very big impact.</font></p><p>The Lord of the Rings is my favorite book, Isaac Asimov's The Base series, and<font>The Stern Moon by Robert Heinlein also</font>Had a huge impact on me.</p><p>When trying to find the truth of things, I explored many ways, and finally found that physics is the best way to explore the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>NADEEM: You made it clear that there should actually be changes<font><font>education</font></font>In some way. Please tell me</font></font></font><font><font>Your thoughts on education, what would education look like in your ideal world?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I think when we try to learn something, building correlation is<font>Extremely important. Be often</font>Ask yourself, why learn this?</font></p><p><font>Our brains are constantly trying to forget. On a subconscious level, our brains try to decide what is relevant and what isn't.</font><font>The brain doesn't want to remember<font>We</font><font>Most of the things I see,</font></font><font>Therefore, correlations must be established.</font><font>Once a correlation is established, the brain naturally wants to remember it.</font></p><p><font>There are two different approaches to carrying out education. One is to teach through tools, the other is to teach through a problem we want to solve<font>Launch teaching</font>。</font><font>For example, faced with a series of lessons on wrenches, screwdrivers and winches, we get bored without establishing correlations.</font><font>However, if you disassemble and assemble an engine, contact with</font><font>Screwdrivers, wrenches, winches and other tools, we</font><font>Will understand their relevance well and keep them in mind.</font></p><p><font>It is a very simple but important principle that these tools will make sense if they are explained in the process of problem solving.</font><font>Otherwise, they will seem irrelevant and people won't remember them.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/140/w550h390/20221128/48ad-447802e4a709aab3bb3dfa8248ea361d.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>The homepage of the official website of Astra Nova (formerly known as Ad Astra), an experimental school promoted by Musk. The school adheres to teaching students in accordance with their aptitude and promotes many educational philosophies mentioned by Ma in this interview</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem: Is this practice happening in education systems around the world?</font></font></font><font><font>What changes need to be made from a faculty or curriculum perspective?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Often there are things that go the other way around.</font><font>They will teach</font><font>You use tools instead of teaching you how to solve problems and then establishing the relevance of tools.</font></p><p><font>For example, you might take a calculus course but have no idea why you are studying calculus.</font><font>Actually, for a lot of people, this may be a mental disorder course that doesn't make sense, and it doesn't make sense learning calculus unless you expect to use it in the future.</font></p><p><font>Quite frankly, a lot of education is pointless. People are taught a lot of things, but in fact, they won't be used in the future.</font><font>If I could make one strong suggestion, it would be that critical thinking should be taught early in education.</font></p><p><font>Critical thinking is important because it creates psychological firewalls that enable children to reject unconvincing concepts,</font><font>just like</font><font>Have a defense system against psychic viruses.</font><font>If you study at a young age<font>Critical thinking, also</font>It can prevent people's brains from building false concepts.</font></p><p><font>Moreover, know how to resist mental trickery.</font><font>People tend to trap you with fallacies,</font><font>Therefore, it will be a good course to master the ability to resist fallacies.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>If young people asked you for career advice, which industries would you recommend? And, which industries are likely to lose value in the future?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Any industry related to sustainable energy and<font>artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>，</font>It will be very important in the future. For example,</font><font>Self-driving cars, self-flying planes, self-driving ships...<font>Also in synthetic biology</font><font>There are many opportunities,</font><font>Synthetic messenger RNA</font><font>Will become a revolution in the field of medicine.</font></font></p><p><font>Of course, these are very technical topics, and there are many other things worth pursuing,</font><font>But as a technical expert,</font><font><font>Sustainable energy, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology</font><font>Learn<font>Three major collars</font><font>Domain</font></font></font><font>That's what I suggest</font><font>。</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/68/w448h420/20221128/77a5-a3ef102799f62a7263d2cdaae942752a.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Messenger ribonucleic acid (messenger RNA, abbreviation: mRNA) is transcribed from DNA and carries the corresponding genetic information to provide the required information for the next translation into protein (Source: Wikipedia)</p><p><font>Nadiem: Which technologies scare you the most in terms of risk?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>We should worry about artificial intelligence,</font><font>We don't want digital superintelligence that has gone astray to cause damage to human beings.</font><font>We do need to be cautious about AI.</font></p><p>It also has the potential to become dangerous when it comes to synthetic biology. Because, it has the potential to create viruses that are more destructive than those that occur naturally.</p><p>These technical tools are definitely double-edged swords. The more powerful the technology is, the more careful we need to be when using it.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>What do you think Indonesia needs to do to become a global economic powerhouse by 2045?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Extensive education clearly makes a lot of sense. Having a high speed internet connection throughout Indonesia will be very important.</font><font>even if</font><font>With only a cheap device and low-cost Internet access, people</font><font>You can learn anything.</font></p><p>For example, MIT classes are free on Tubing. You can learn almost anything you want on the internet for free.<font>So I think extensive internet connectivity is crucial because it allows people to learn whatever they want, at the speed they like.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/52/w550h302/20221128/cfb5-89f944befce0c49a415df548066b1dec.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>Nadeem: Then there are some audience questions. He wants to know what's the biggest obstacle or mistake you've ever faced? How is it overcome?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Frankly, I've made a lot of mistakes and it takes forever to list them all.</font><font>As time goes by, we always aspire to reduce mistakes, but</font><font>It is also very difficult to make fewer mistakes every day.</font></p><p>I have said publicly that both the mind and thinking are very important, and we can't just look at thinking. One of the biggest mistakes I've ever made in hiring people is to put too much emphasis on their thinking ability and neglect their mental maturity.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/81/w550h331/20221128/555c-80454a0cc0f70b8b4b07dc56ed800c19.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>I think the higher principle is that we<font>You should always assume that you are wrong, which you are, and at the same time</font>Strive to make fewer mistakes, and try to make fewer mistakes every day.</font><font>In this process,</font><font>Want to</font><font>Take \"</font><font>Make fewer mistakes \", rather than think you're right</font><font>, and</font><font>Let someone else</font><font>To prove you're right</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>Nadeem: Last question, which</font></font><font><font>Daily habits that make you who you are now?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>As far as daily habits are concerned, I am curious about the world and how it works, about technology, and about everything. I think curiosity is a very important thing,</font><font>meanwhile</font><font>, also</font><font>Have a certain degree of persistence in curiosity. So,</font><font>Persistent curiosity is important.</font></p><p><font>And, I think the spirit of adventure is also good. People are afraid of certain things, but they don't have to.</font><font>Sometimes our instinctive fear is not commensurate with the actual danger, and the next time we face it, we should</font><font>Try rethinking, like, is this fear justified?</font><font>Could something bad really happen?</font><font>We</font><font>Must look at it</font><font>Instinctively fear, and question it,</font><font>A simple examination of the fear may make it go away.</font></p><p>* Article source Economics One Gram Nanometer</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's latest exclusive interview: Young people must learn to think critically</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's latest exclusive interview: Young people must learn to think critically\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-28 16:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Source: Yabuli Entrepreneur Forum CEF</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/111/w550h361/20221128/b0fb-97720ea340482e21bb2d44c69f83050f.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Recently, at the B20 G20 Business Summit held in Bali, Indonesia, Elon Musk accepted a remote interview with entrepreneur and Indonesian Minister of Education, Culture, Research and Technology Nadeem Makarim.</p><p>Musk shared his views on education, learning, and explained the first principles of physics as a tool.</p><p><font>The following is the full text of the interview (with deletions):</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font><font>One of the things that a lot of people get confused about is how can you do so much? What Are Your Productivity Tools?</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Well, I do invest a lot of time. I'm not sure if I would recommend my practice to others,</font><font><font>Because I spend almost all my time working. I rarely take a break, even a Sunday.</font></font></p><p>Regarding tools for understanding the world, I think the physics framework is very helpful. In physics, we should think from the perspective of first principles.</p><p>For a particular situation, you try to understand the most basic truth and then reason based on it. Then, test your conclusions against what you believe to be fundamental truth.</p><p>In physics, it's like checking if you're violating the law of conservation of energy, or conservation of momentum, or something like that. It should always be assumed that we are wrong to some extent, and at the same time want to reduce the mistakes. This is very important.</p><p>It's a bit hard to cross pride, but it's great for getting to the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>This is an iterative process, constantly holding a healthy skepticism, and of course, a lot of time you invest.</font></font><font><font>I've noticed that when you try to make a change, the resistance that comes with change is very strong and very painful. There will be a whole group of people, who I classify as naysayers, who are constantly trying to say, what you are trying to achieve is impossible.</font></font><font><font>How do you deal with these naysayers?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I want to go back to physics, the only thing that is really impossible, is to break the laws of physics. As long as the laws of physics are not broken, anything is possible.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Anyone's opinion doesn't matter, physics is the law, everything else is advice.</font></font></font><font><font>I've seen many people break the law, but I've never seen anyone break the laws of physics.</font></font></p><p><font>Nadim: Anything is possible within the laws of physics?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Of course, you can also challenge the laws of physics, but they have been challenged enough, and they are very adaptable.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>Have there ever been a few landmark events that happened in your childhood or teenage years and had the most profound impact on you today?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I read a lot of science fiction and fantasy books, and I love movies like Star Trek and Star Wars.</font><font>Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a cinema.</font><font>At that time I</font><font>Only six,</font><font>To me</font><font>Have a very big impact.</font></p><p>The Lord of the Rings is my favorite book, Isaac Asimov's The Base series, and<font>The Stern Moon by Robert Heinlein also</font>Had a huge impact on me.</p><p>When trying to find the truth of things, I explored many ways, and finally found that physics is the best way to explore the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>NADEEM: You made it clear that there should actually be changes<font><font>education</font></font>In some way. Please tell me</font></font></font><font><font>Your thoughts on education, what would education look like in your ideal world?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I think when we try to learn something, building correlation is<font>Extremely important. Be often</font>Ask yourself, why learn this?</font></p><p><font>Our brains are constantly trying to forget. On a subconscious level, our brains try to decide what is relevant and what isn't.</font><font>The brain doesn't want to remember<font>We</font><font>Most of the things I see,</font></font><font>Therefore, correlations must be established.</font><font>Once a correlation is established, the brain naturally wants to remember it.</font></p><p><font>There are two different approaches to carrying out education. One is to teach through tools, the other is to teach through a problem we want to solve<font>Launch teaching</font>。</font><font>For example, faced with a series of lessons on wrenches, screwdrivers and winches, we get bored without establishing correlations.</font><font>However, if you disassemble and assemble an engine, contact with</font><font>Screwdrivers, wrenches, winches and other tools, we</font><font>Will understand their relevance well and keep them in mind.</font></p><p><font>It is a very simple but important principle that these tools will make sense if they are explained in the process of problem solving.</font><font>Otherwise, they will seem irrelevant and people won't remember them.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/140/w550h390/20221128/48ad-447802e4a709aab3bb3dfa8248ea361d.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>The homepage of the official website of Astra Nova (formerly known as Ad Astra), an experimental school promoted by Musk. The school adheres to teaching students in accordance with their aptitude and promotes many educational philosophies mentioned by Ma in this interview</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem: Is this practice happening in education systems around the world?</font></font></font><font><font>What changes need to be made from a faculty or curriculum perspective?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Often there are things that go the other way around.</font><font>They will teach</font><font>You use tools instead of teaching you how to solve problems and then establishing the relevance of tools.</font></p><p><font>For example, you might take a calculus course but have no idea why you are studying calculus.</font><font>Actually, for a lot of people, this may be a mental disorder course that doesn't make sense, and it doesn't make sense learning calculus unless you expect to use it in the future.</font></p><p><font>Quite frankly, a lot of education is pointless. People are taught a lot of things, but in fact, they won't be used in the future.</font><font>If I could make one strong suggestion, it would be that critical thinking should be taught early in education.</font></p><p><font>Critical thinking is important because it creates psychological firewalls that enable children to reject unconvincing concepts,</font><font>just like</font><font>Have a defense system against psychic viruses.</font><font>If you study at a young age<font>Critical thinking, also</font>It can prevent people's brains from building false concepts.</font></p><p><font>Moreover, know how to resist mental trickery.</font><font>People tend to trap you with fallacies,</font><font>Therefore, it will be a good course to master the ability to resist fallacies.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>If young people asked you for career advice, which industries would you recommend? And, which industries are likely to lose value in the future?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Any industry related to sustainable energy and<font>artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>，</font>It will be very important in the future. For example,</font><font>Self-driving cars, self-flying planes, self-driving ships...<font>Also in synthetic biology</font><font>There are many opportunities,</font><font>Synthetic messenger RNA</font><font>Will become a revolution in the field of medicine.</font></font></p><p><font>Of course, these are very technical topics, and there are many other things worth pursuing,</font><font>But as a technical expert,</font><font><font>Sustainable energy, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology</font><font>Learn<font>Three major collars</font><font>Domain</font></font></font><font>That's what I suggest</font><font>。</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/68/w448h420/20221128/77a5-a3ef102799f62a7263d2cdaae942752a.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Messenger ribonucleic acid (messenger RNA, abbreviation: mRNA) is transcribed from DNA and carries the corresponding genetic information to provide the required information for the next translation into protein (Source: Wikipedia)</p><p><font>Nadiem: Which technologies scare you the most in terms of risk?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>We should worry about artificial intelligence,</font><font>We don't want digital superintelligence that has gone astray to cause damage to human beings.</font><font>We do need to be cautious about AI.</font></p><p>It also has the potential to become dangerous when it comes to synthetic biology. Because, it has the potential to create viruses that are more destructive than those that occur naturally.</p><p>These technical tools are definitely double-edged swords. The more powerful the technology is, the more careful we need to be when using it.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>What do you think Indonesia needs to do to become a global economic powerhouse by 2045?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Extensive education clearly makes a lot of sense. Having a high speed internet connection throughout Indonesia will be very important.</font><font>even if</font><font>With only a cheap device and low-cost Internet access, people</font><font>You can learn anything.</font></p><p>For example, MIT classes are free on Tubing. You can learn almost anything you want on the internet for free.<font>So I think extensive internet connectivity is crucial because it allows people to learn whatever they want, at the speed they like.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/52/w550h302/20221128/cfb5-89f944befce0c49a415df548066b1dec.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>Nadeem: Then there are some audience questions. He wants to know what's the biggest obstacle or mistake you've ever faced? How is it overcome?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Frankly, I've made a lot of mistakes and it takes forever to list them all.</font><font>As time goes by, we always aspire to reduce mistakes, but</font><font>It is also very difficult to make fewer mistakes every day.</font></p><p>I have said publicly that both the mind and thinking are very important, and we can't just look at thinking. One of the biggest mistakes I've ever made in hiring people is to put too much emphasis on their thinking ability and neglect their mental maturity.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/81/w550h331/20221128/555c-80454a0cc0f70b8b4b07dc56ed800c19.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>I think the higher principle is that we<font>You should always assume that you are wrong, which you are, and at the same time</font>Strive to make fewer mistakes, and try to make fewer mistakes every day.</font><font>In this process,</font><font>Want to</font><font>Take \"</font><font>Make fewer mistakes \", rather than think you're right</font><font>, and</font><font>Let someone else</font><font>To prove you're right</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>Nadeem: Last question, which</font></font><font><font>Daily habits that make you who you are now?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>As far as daily habits are concerned, I am curious about the world and how it works, about technology, and about everything. I think curiosity is a very important thing,</font><font>meanwhile</font><font>, also</font><font>Have a certain degree of persistence in curiosity. So,</font><font>Persistent curiosity is important.</font></p><p><font>And, I think the spirit of adventure is also good. People are afraid of certain things, but they don't have to.</font><font>Sometimes our instinctive fear is not commensurate with the actual danger, and the next time we face it, we should</font><font>Try rethinking, like, is this fear justified?</font><font>Could something bad really happen?</font><font>We</font><font>Must look at it</font><font>Instinctively fear, and question it,</font><font>A simple examination of the fear may make it go away.</font></p><p>* Article source Economics One Gram Nanometer</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-11-28/doc-imqmmthc6299945.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) 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AM AT Acc","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-11-28/doc-imqmmthc6299945.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286561052","content_text":"来源：亚布力企业家论坛CEF近日，在印尼巴厘岛举行的B20二十国集团工商界峰会上，埃隆·马斯克接受了企业家，印度尼西亚教育、文化、研究和技术部长纳迪姆·马卡里姆的远程采访。马斯克分享了关于教育，学习的看法，并解释了物理学第一性原理这个工具。以下为访谈全文（有删减）：纳迪姆：很多人感到困惑的一件事是，你怎么能做这么多事？你的生产力工具有哪些？埃隆·马斯克：嗯，我确实投入了大量的时间。我不确定，我是否会向其他人推荐我的做法，因为我几乎所有时间都在工作。我很少休息，哪怕是一个星期天。关于理解世界的工具，我认为，物理学框架是非常有帮助的。在物理学中，要从第一性原理的角度进行思考。对于一种特定的情况，你尝试理解最基本的真理，然后基于此进行推理。然后，根据你认为的基本真理来检验你的结论。在物理学中，这就像检验你是否违反了能量守恒，或动量守恒，或类似的定律。应该永远假设，我们在某种程度上是错误的，同时想减少错误。这一点非常重要。这有点难以跨越自尊心，但它对于了解事情的真相很有帮助。纳迪姆：这是个迭代的过程，不断持有健康的怀疑态度，当然，还有你投入的大量时间。我注意到，当你尝试做出改变时，改变带来的阻力是非常大的，也是非常痛苦的。会有一整群人，我把他们归类为反对者，他们不断地试图说，你所要实现的目标是不可能的。你如何应对这些反对者？埃隆·马斯克：我想回到物理学上，唯一真正不可能的事情，是打破物理学定律。只要没打破物理定律，一切皆有可能。任何人的意见都不重要，物理学是定律，其他一切都是建议。我见过很多人违反法律，但我从未见过有人违反物理学定律。纳迪姆：在物理学定律范围内，任何事情都有可能？埃隆·马斯克：当然，你也可以挑战物理学定律，但它们已经被挑战得够多的，它们有很强的适应性。纳迪姆：是否曾经有几个里程碑式的事件，发生在你的儿童或青少年时代，并给今天的你带来了最深远影响？埃隆·马斯克：我读了很多科幻和奇幻书籍，我喜欢《星际迷航》《星球大战》这类电影。《星球大战》是我在电影院看过的第一部电影。当时我只有六岁，对我产生非常大的影响。《指环王》是我最喜欢的书，艾萨克·阿西莫夫的《基地》系列，以及罗伯特·海因莱因的《严厉的月亮》也对我有巨大的影响。在尝试寻求事物的真相时，我探索了很多途径，最终发现，物理学是探索事物真相的最佳途径。纳迪姆：你明确指出过，应该实际改变教育的某些方式。请说一下你对教育的想法，在你的理想世界里，教育是什么样子的？埃隆·马斯克：我认为，当我们尝试学习一些东西时，建立相关性是极其重要的。要经常问问自己，为什么学这个？我们的大脑一直在试图忘却。在潜意识层面上，我们的大脑试图决定什么相关，什么不相关。大脑并不想记住我们看到的大多数东西，因此，必须建立相关性。一旦建立了相关性，大脑自然就会想要记住它。有两种开展教育的不同方法。一种是通过工具展开教学，另一种是通过我们想解决的一个问题来展开教学。例如，面对一系列关于扳手、螺丝刀和绞盘的课程，如果不建立相关性，我们会感到很无聊。但如果通过拆装一个发动机，接触到螺丝刀、扳手、绞盘等工具，我们会很好理解它们的相关性，并且记住它们。这是一个非常简单但重要的原则，即在解决问题的过程中解释这些工具，这些工具就会有意义。否则，它们就会显得毫不相关，人们也不会记住它们。马斯克推动创办的实验性学校Astra Nova（前称：Ad Astra）的官网首页。学校秉承因材施教，推动了很多马在这个访谈中提到的教育理念纳迪姆：这种做法是否正在世界各地的教育系统中发生？从教师或课程的角度来看，需要做出些什么改变？埃隆·马斯克：经常有一些事情是反着来的。他们会教你使用工具，而不是教你如何解决问题，然后再建立工具的相关性。例如，你可能会参加一门微积分课程，但不知道为什么要学习微积分。实际上，对很多人来说，这可能是一门没有意义的心理障碍课程，除非你期望在未来使用它，否则学习微积分是没有意义的。坦率地说，很多教育都是毫无意义的。人们被教了很多东西，但实际上，未来并不会使用到这些东西。如果我可以提出一个强烈的建议，那就是，在教育早期就应该教授批判性思维。批判性思维非常重要，因为它创建了心理防火墙，使儿童能够拒绝那些没有说服力的概念，就像拥有一个抗心灵病毒的防御系统。如果在年轻的时候学习批判性思维，也可以避免人们的大脑建立错误的概念。而且，还要知道如何抵御精神诡计。人们往往会用谬论来困住你，因此掌握抵御谬论的能力，将是一门很好的课程。纳迪姆：如果年轻人向你询问职业建议，你会推荐哪些行业？以及，未来哪些行业可能价值会降低？埃隆·马斯克：任何与可持续能源有关的行业以及人工智能，在未来都将是非常重要的。例如，自动驾驶的汽车、自动飞行的飞机、自动行驶的船只．．．．．．在合成生物学方面也有很多的机会，合成信使RNA将成为医药领域的一场革命。当然，这些都是非常技术性的课题，还有许多其他值得追求的东西，但作为技术专家，可持续能源，人工智能，合成生物学三大领域就是我的建议。信使核糖核酸（messenger RNA，缩写：mRNA），是由DNA经由转录而来，带着相应的遗传讯息，为下一步翻译成蛋白质提供所需的讯息（源：维基百科）纳迪姆：就风险而言，哪些技术最让你害怕？埃隆·马斯克：我们应该对人工智能心存担忧，不希望出现走向歧路的数字超级智能对人类造成损害。我们确实需要对人工智能持谨慎态度。在合成生物学方面，它也有可能变得危险。因为，它有可能创造出比自然出现的更具破坏性的病毒。这些技术工具，绝对是双刃剑。技术越强大，我们在使用时就越需要小心。纳迪姆：你认为印度尼西亚需要做些什么，才能在2045年成为全球经济强国？埃隆·马斯克：广泛的教育显然很有意义。在印度尼西亚全国拥有高速互联网连接将非常重要。哪怕只有一个廉价的设备和低成本的互联网接入，人们就可以学到任何东西。例如，麻省理工学院的课程在油管上是免费的。你几乎可以在互联网上免费学习任何你想要的内容。因此，我认为广泛的互联网连接是至关重要的，因为它允许人们以他们喜欢的速度，学习任何他们想学的内容。纳迪姆：接下来是一些观众问题。他想知道你曾面临的最大障碍或错误是什么？是如何克服的？埃隆·马斯克：坦率地说，我犯过很多错，把它们全部列出来要花很长的时间。随着时间的推移，我们总渴望能够减少错误，但要每天少犯错，也是很难的。我曾经公开说过，心智和思维都很重要，不能光看思维。我在雇用人员方面所犯过最大的错误之一，就是过于看重他们的思维能力，而忽视心智的成熟。我认为更高的原则是，我们应该永远假设自己是错的，事实上也的确如此，同时要争取少犯错，并且每天努力减少犯错。在这个过程中，要采取“减少犯错”的方法，而不是认为自己是对的，并且让别人来证明你是对的。纳迪姆：最后一个问题，哪些日常习惯，让你成为了现在的你？埃隆·马斯克：就日常习惯而言，我对世界及世界的运作方式充满好奇，对技术好奇，对一切事物好奇。我认为，好奇心是一个非常重要的东西，同时，还要对好奇心有一定的执着。所以，执着的好奇心是很重要的。并且，我认为冒险精神也很好。人们对某些事情感到害怕，其实大可不必。有时候，我们的本能恐惧与实际危险并不相称，下次再面临恐惧，我们应该尝试重新思考，比如，这种恐惧是合理的吗？会不会真的有不好的事发生？我们必须要审视一下本能恐惧，并质疑它，简单地审视一下恐惧，也许就会让它消失。* 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11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125738659","media":"市界","summary":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPh","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrillions of apples, \"high in debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 11:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd73a3a7ee0028660eb13b44cbd5058","relate_stocks":{"BK4512":"苹果概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4575":"芯片概念","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","AAPL":"苹果","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125738659","content_text":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。苹果最近可以说是麻烦不断。11月29日，马斯克在炮轰苹果后，于个人社交媒体上发出一项关于“苹果应该公布所有影响其他客户的审查措施”的投票，近223万人次投票中有85%选择了“Yes”。在此之前，马斯克对苹果App Store高达30%的抽成提出了质疑，并表示苹果曾发出威胁，称可能将自己刚刚收购的社交媒体应用从App Store下架。短暂的闹剧，最终以库克带着马斯克参观苹果总部且达成和解落下帷幕。但很快脸书创始人扎克伯克和流媒体音乐服务Spotify CEO丹尼尔·埃克就接过了马斯克炮轰苹果的接力棒，公开表示苹果App Store剥夺了消费者的选择，不合理地获得生态系统的大多数利润。但类似的指控显然不是苹果第一次面对，回到当下，苹果更为真切和近距离的“焦虑”来自不被看好的iPhone 14系列，而更为深远的“焦虑”，则藏于隐秘的财报数据之间。高企的负债率作为一家总市值超过2万亿美元，总资产规模3528亿美元，年收入3943亿美元，净利润998亿美元的全球科技巨头，苹果的负债率正在偏离大众的普遍认知，而这背后其实是与“避税”和经营策略相关的难题。截至2022年9月末，苹果资产负债率达到85.64%，是其历史上最高水平。相比较而言，苹果所在的纳斯达克，市值前十的上市公司2021财年资产负债率平均值为52.92%，其中苹果以82.03%的负债率位列第二，仅次于百事的82.52%；同期纽交所市值前十的上市公司资产负债率平均值为55.71%，其中负债率达到92.14%的摩根大通属于银行板块，与苹果并无可比性，其次就是负债率达到65.33%的沃尔玛。不论纵向比较还是横向比较，苹果的负债率都不算低，单看这一指标甚至比国内许多高杠杆发展的房地产企业更为激进。极高的负债率背后，苹果截至2022年9月末的带息债务为1200.69亿美元，其中长期定期债务989.59亿美元，短期定期债务111.28亿美元。与此同时，苹果的腰包也是相当鼓——同一时间点其账面现金及等价物、有价证券合计1691.09亿美元，其中现金236.46亿美元，长期和短期有价证券分别为1208.05亿美元和246.58亿美元。具体来看，苹果持有的有价证券中，包括234.09亿美元的美国国债，157.49亿美元的非美国政府债券，以及794.5亿美元的公司债券。（来源：公告）那么问题来了，为什么苹果在全球范围内智能手机出货量第二，且有大把现金和债券放在账上，却还要借那么多钱呢？事实上苹果一直受困于“避税”的难题，因为美国税法规定，苹果的境外所得如果要汇回美国，需要向美国政府缴纳35%的税（税改前），但苹果方面对此一直是抗拒的，认为过高的税率并不合理。外界对于苹果“避税”的质疑长久地存在着，苹果CEO库克还曾在听证会上“舌战参议员”，回击在其看来美国税法的不合理之处。但问题并未得到解决。苹果在海外的收益还是不能顺畅地回到美国，而是经过一系列避税操作被汇集到爱尔兰，再通过苹果和爱尔兰政府的一系列特殊协议，实现超低税率的纳税。海外的钱回不到美国账户，但库克接任后苹果为了进行市值管理，每年都需要斥巨资回购公司股票，同时也从乔布斯时代的不分红转变为高比例分红，这些都需要大笔的现金。市界统计，2013年到2022年，苹果在股票回购上共花费了5531亿美元，2011年以来现金流量表显示的股息支出合计达到1319亿美元。这就导致苹果在账面保有大量现金和证券的同时，需要不断借钱用于回购和分红，其带息债务在2013至2017年间大幅提升，最终形成如今“大存大贷”的局面。但这还不是苹果负债率升高的根本原因。从逻辑上看，资产负债率=总负债/总资产，只有当总负债增长幅度大于总资产增幅时，资产负债率才会上升，那么什么时候会出现这种情况？简单来说就是花的比赚的多的时候。具体来说，在负债保持在一个相对稳定水平时，只要苹果每年赚的钱比花的钱多，那么净资产就会增长，整体负债率也会得到控制甚至有所下降。但比较苹果分红和回购支出与每年经营活动和投资活动净额之和，会发现大多数年份苹果用于分红和回购的支出，都大于经营活动和投资活动产生的现金净额。这就意味着苹果赚的钱常常不够花。这种状态的不断积累下，苹果的资产增长速度远不及负债的增长速度，负债率也最终爬升至85.5%的高水平。2011年库克正式接过苹果CEO之位，2013年以来一直到2022年，苹果总资产增加了1457.55亿美元，增幅70.41%，但负债增加了2186.32亿美元，增幅达到261.99%。从这个角度看，除了充分挖掘iPhone给苹果带来的商业价值，库克的精准“刀法”很大程度上也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是其在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。更为急迫的问题在于，想要回到“赚的比花的多”这样的安全界限内，苹果当前的杀手锏依然是iPhone，于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。iPhone的最后一波红利？自2007年第一代iPhone面市以来，截至2022年9月末iPhone在全球的出货量已累计超过23亿台，为苹果创收约10.84万亿元。市场调研机构Strategy Analytics 公布的数据显示，双十一期间智能手机总销量虽然同比下降35%，但iPhone却以350万台的销量摘下桂冠。最新数据显示，2022年10月苹果在国内的月度市场份额达到25%的历史最高水平，且连续两个月是国内第一大手机品牌厂商。在此之前，iPhone 14系列并不被看好，甚至吐槽颇多。自10月份发布以来，与iPhone 14相关的报道包括《iPhone 14 把华强北坑惨了》《iPhone 14“收割”黄牛》《挤牙膏让iPhone 14吃到苦头？》……花式标题几乎一边倒地透露唱衰苹果新机的情绪，从配置到设计都被认为有着明显的痛点。“老果粉”罗永浩也在入手新机后调侃道：“苹果过去一直是真机比渲染图好看，但这些年我那个‘美国子公司’也不太灵了，这次就是很好的一个例子，所谓灵动岛的设计并不像宣传视频里那么漂亮。安卓阵营把不影响美感的居中小黑点前摄，升降式前摄，以及视觉完美的屏下隐藏式前摄全都搞出来了，为什么要做这种先在脸上涂屎，再把屎的颜色调整得跟粉底差不多的事儿？”但不管是不被看好的灵动岛，还是库克的“刀法”，虽然玩坏了iPhone 14标准版，但库克确实成功将更多需求吸引至配置和售价更高的Pro机型上——10月份iPhone 14 Pro Max和iPhone 14 Pro分别是国内畅销机型中的第一和第二，但此前iPhone 12和iPhone 13系列标准版一直销量更高。（图片来源：视觉中国）除此之外，苹果也在iPhone、Mac等硬件产品外逐渐扩大自己在生态中的收入版图——其来自于iTunes、软件和服务的收入从2012财年的760亿元增至2022财年5463亿元，占总收入比重也从7.66%提高至19.81%，参照小米互联网服务业务70%以上的毛利率，苹果这部分业务理论上也有着相比硬件更高的利润空间。这些都是苹果“开源”的方式。在这一思路下，不管是马斯克、扎克伯格等科技巨头对苹果税的反感，还是在库克商业刀法下初代iPhone光环的消磨殆尽，事实上都是苹果需要承受的代价。在三星近日发布的一则手机广告里，苹果再次成为被嘲讽的对象——一个男人坐在一堵墙头，背后是一个长得像苹果零售店的铺面，店里员工问他在做什么，男人含沙射影地说道，“在三星那边，有可折叠的手机和史诗般的相机”，店员则回应以“我们等待”，暗嘲苹果迟迟未推出折叠屏手机。这并非双方第一次在广告里“侧面交锋”。过往的广告中，三星还调戏过苹果突兀的刘海屏，埋汰过苹果的卡顿、bug频发和不防水等缺陷，还用情节对比凸显无法同时充电和使用耳机的旧代苹果，基本上把苹果历来的缺陷都数落了一遍。好在如果回头看，其中大部分bug都成了历史，三星广告中的暗讽某种程度上也成为督促苹果改进的一种戏剧性力量。在接下来几年内，如何以更加精准的“刀法”和相对有限的微创新，让iPhone 及其生态在智能手机这个逐渐萎缩的行业里吃尽最后一波红利，或许是库克眼下考虑的重要问题之一，但与此同时在iPhone之外找到“下一个时代的iPhone”，也是苹果商业帝国得以延续的重中之重。外界最期待的呈现主要包括苹果智能汽车和苹果AR/VR眼镜，前者经历8年的“难产”目前依然距离落地遥遥无期，后者则在近期迎来越来越密集的报道，在万众瞩目中呼之欲出。（图片来源：视觉中国）事实上苹果在AR领域的布局比大多数人想象的都要深远——其于2017年WWDC推出了AR开发平台ARKit，开发人员可以使用这套工具为iPhone和iPad创建增强现实应用程序，而苹果的AR/VR一旦面市，ARKit具备的能力和对应的应用程序，大部分也都可以呈现在新的载体上。比如应用于iPad、iPhone Pro的LiDAR激光雷达，因为具备景深感知能力，所以除了为现有产品提高摄像对焦能力外，更像是在为未来AR/VR设备所必需的空间测距能力打好基础。也比如iPhone目前具备的摄像头识别文字并搜索的功能，如果应用于未来的AR/VR设备，能够施展的空间也会大大得到释放。2022年WWDC之后，库克曾在采访中表述，AR领域是苹果每天关注的重点，App Store中已经有超过1400个ARKit APP，还表示“请继续关注，你将会看到我们所带来的产品”。从已有消息来看，苹果的AR团队大概率手握两套方案，一个是瞄准VR的头盔，对应的是沉浸式的虚拟体验，售价可能达到2000美元；另一个则大概率是外观更贴近普通眼镜的AR眼镜，对应的是现实加强的虚拟体验，但推出的时间点应该会在VR头盔产品之后。在智能手机市场增长不再的背景下，苹果酝酿中的AR/VR眼镜能否接住iPhone即将交出的接力棒，或许就是苹果未来几年的焦虑所在。值得思考的问题是，在苹果的负债率逼近90%的当下，未来可供库克腾挪的空间还剩多少？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965201228,"gmtCreate":1669952070464,"gmtModify":1676538277341,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965201228","repostId":"1137562033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137562033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669950387,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137562033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 11:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Musk's Monkey Is Driving A Brain-Computer Revolution At The Price Of 'Banana Milkshakes'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137562033","media":"硅星人","summary":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The revolution of brain-computer interface is coming too fast.</p><p>Musk revealed at the Neuralink communication meeting held in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, named N1, can start human testing within 6 months at the earliest.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about 6 months, everyone will be able to see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Image source: Neuralink</p><p>Banana milkshake, the primary productive force of cyberpunk</p><p>After watching the entire press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so quickly...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>As you may know, Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with surnames, and there are countless reservists without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink can't force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink had already understood a truth as early as the early days of starting in vivo experiments: a strongly twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced or reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come and experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana milkshakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a set of reinforcement mechanism: whenever a monkey participates in the current experiment and completes an operation, it will get a banana milkshake...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the better you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism of stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see in the picture below, these monkeys are doing experiments while sipping drinks from the tubes in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: doing experiments happily, drinking milkshakes happily...</b></p><p>Such a feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>First, let's look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it seems that monkeys can type, it doesn't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press next key has already been designed by the experimental staff, and it will be marked in yellow on the virtual keyboard of MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey controls the cursor to \"move\" to the next key to be pressed through its mind and brain, and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Make some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with letting the monkey type with the cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to control common electronic devices including mobile phones through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, the monkey army of this company is doing all kinds of training work driven by banana milkshakes, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"At first, it was a virtual keyboard. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, combine the graphics in the picture and the trained signal patterns to accurately judge what words the monkey wrote on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid monkeys really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves Neuralink staff a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\" and then put the charging board in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>In this way, whenever the monkey wants to drink a banana milkshake, he will run over and suck the tube.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be just aimed at the charging pad, and it will charge while drinking drinks.</b></p><p>This design, the brain circuit is really interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this press conference, in general, gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → we tried many ways but couldn't solve it → Hey, in the end, we had to do banana Dafa → There's no way banana really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to realize cyberpunk, banana milkshake has become the primary productive force...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to returning to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source Concord Food</p><p>From banana milkshakes, to monkey brain plasticity</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, testing tools, etc. required.</p><p>In the example below, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one of which I mentioned just now, that is, to help (paralyzed) people gain motor function.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: to help visually impaired people who have been living in the dark regain light through external devices + brain-computer interfaces.</b></p><p>For the vast majority of visually impaired people, the problem lies in the eyeball. Their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is most likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to transmit signals directly into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the skull in the visual cortex of the monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface in it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>This time, however, the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals and controlling peripherals, it is completely reversed. The visual content obtained from the outside is compiled into original brain nerve signals and transmitted back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not human, and there is no way to tell the experimenter what they saw or didn't see or what they saw. Therefore, Neuralink designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a method commonly used in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) Use the artificial intervention signal input from the brain-computer interface to stimulate the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results are consistent, use banana milkshake for incentive.</b></p><p>As shown in the figure below: the green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards the position where there are no white spots, precisely because it receives a signal of human intervention through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball did not match the artificial signal.</p><p><b>Interestingly, however, as the test time became longer and the number of times increased, the monkeys became more skilled and the degree of compliance became higher and higher.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons in the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>The Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity, and through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>And if the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will become higher, from a single vector to a line, surface, shape and color, and the number of pixels will be further increased...</b></p><p><b>In that way, wouldn't those blind people be able to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to be crossed.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained in the near future through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface (note that this is not a real picture, just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthesis kit, images are acquired by a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware the protagonist gets is the visual prosthesis Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronic devices and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>Righteousness<b>The body is not as cool as in the game for the time being.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk claims that prostheses can'restore 'vision-perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthesis is not the vision that you and I have. It's more like a dot-like spot, and maybe it can be combined to form a simple display effect, just like the old-fashioned light bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @ antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, restoring the light to the blind is still a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as many outstanding literary and artistic works of a culture, also sounded the alarm for the future where human beings are too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks cannot be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up efforts to improve technical safety, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Developed techniques to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells cultivated in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialers in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that does not require pioneering on the meninges (dura) and directly performs electrode implantation outside the meninges (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, and easily bringing infection risks. And very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Take upgradability as one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized hole in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face the problem of tissue caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the equipment. It is difficult to upgrade hardware, so the hardware must ensure the ability of software upgrade to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to get it done in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe Neuralink can become a cyborg technology giant like \"Arasaka\" in the future...</p><p>\"I laughed because Elon Musk via NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness, this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Praise it and thought very seriously, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was pinching someone by the neck. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Internet</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gxr","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's Monkey Is Driving A Brain-Computer Revolution At The Price Of 'Banana Milkshakes'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's Monkey Is Driving A Brain-Computer Revolution At The Price Of 'Banana Milkshakes'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">硅星人</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The revolution of brain-computer interface is coming too fast.</p><p>Musk revealed at the Neuralink communication meeting held in Silicon Valley:</p><p><b>The first brain-computer interface product, named N1, can start human testing within 6 months at the earliest.</b>\"For our first clinical test, we are working very hard to step up all work preparations,\" Musk said lightly.</p><p>\"Most of our documents have been submitted to the FDA. We estimate that in about 6 months, everyone will be able to see Neuralink installed on people's heads.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881053692fafe079f3a3d49c36ec151c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Neuralink's proposed N1 brain-computer interface (internal structure) Image source: Neuralink</p><p>Banana milkshake, the primary productive force of cyberpunk</p><p>After watching the entire press conference, Silicon Star people have a core feeling:</p><p><b>Without banana smoothie, this brain-computer interface revolution probably wouldn't have come so quickly...</b></p><p>Why do you say that?</p><p>As you may know, Neuralink has been experimenting with animals such as monkeys and pigs in the past. There are at least eight monkeys with surnames, and there are countless reservists without names.</p><p>But according to the regulations, Neuralink can't force them to participate in cooperative experiments...</p><p>What's more, Neuralink had already understood a truth as early as the early days of starting in vivo experiments: a strongly twisted melon is not sweet. Letting these monkeys do experiments, even if they are a little forced or reluctant, will have an impact on the results of the experiment.</p><p>So Neuralink developed a set of incentive schemes based on the principle of \"voluntary participation\":</p><p><b>Just come and experiment and there's an unlimited supply of banana milkshakes!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a4f3b1a85e86a5cb522b6217c4f1c88\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Specifically, just like conditioning, Neuralink's breeding staff participated in designing a set of reinforcement mechanism: whenever a monkey participates in the current experiment and completes an operation, it will get a banana milkshake...</p><p>In this way, the more you experiment, the better you drink. Over time, a feedback mechanism of stimulus reinforcement is formed.</p><p>As you can see in the picture below, these monkeys are doing experiments while sipping drinks from the tubes in front of them.</p><p><b>It can be said: doing experiments happily, drinking milkshakes happily...</b></p><p>Such a feedback mechanism has played a very important role in Neuralink's research and development work in the past two years.</p><p><b>First, let's look at the following experiment of brain-controlled cursor:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8bf4ff89ae652fc4e9081500a27cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>(Although it seems that monkeys can type, it doesn't. How can monkeys know English?)</p><p>What to press next key has already been designed by the experimental staff, and it will be marked in yellow on the virtual keyboard of MacBook in front of the monkey.</p><p>Under the action of the incentive mechanism, as long as the monkey controls the cursor to \"move\" to the next key to be pressed through its mind and brain, and sends a \"press\" signal, sweet and delicious banana milkshake will flow out of the tube...</p><p><b>Driven by his desire for dessert, the monkey typed out this sentence: Make some night snacks (can i please have snacks)...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc8fe91e2df061111738ae2353e113d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>But Neuralink isn't content with letting the monkey type with the cursor. After all, one of its phased goals is to allow (paralyzed) people to control common electronic devices including mobile phones through brain-computer signals.</p><p><b>Therefore, the monkey army of this company is doing all kinds of training work driven by banana milkshakes, including but not limited to:</b></p><p><ul><li>Click and drag</p><p></li><li>Sliding input</p><p></li><li>write</p><p></li><li>Gesture recognition</p><p></li></ul><b>Wait...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e330ff9c4d8ee25e4043bf843f0492\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>Take handwriting as an example:</p><p>\"At first, it was a virtual keyboard. Now we can directly use the brain-computer interface to read signals, combine the graphics in the picture and the trained signal patterns to accurately judge what words the monkey wrote on the screen,\" a Neuralink technical expert revealed.</p><p>If this goes on, I'm afraid monkeys really have to \"learn\" to write and spell words?</p><p><b>And, banana milkshake can also stimulate monkeys to charge the brain-computer interface themselves!</b></p><p>This simply saves Neuralink staff a lot of trouble...</p><p>The specific mechanism is designed like this:</p><p>They made a tree into a \"milk tea shop\" and then put the charging board in the decorated branch:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca9c13ceb6607c8aec8de3743b51912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>In this way, whenever the monkey wants to drink a banana milkshake, he will run over and suck the tube.</p><p><b>As a result, its head will be just aimed at the charging pad, and it will charge while drinking drinks.</b></p><p>This design, the brain circuit is really interesting!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab466e4985357060e0ed96368e3f1d5a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The speeches of the guests at this press conference, in general, gave Silicon Star people a feeling, that is:</p><p>We encountered a technical problem in the experiment → we tried many ways but couldn't solve it → Hey, in the end, we had to do banana Dafa → There's no way banana really works!</p><p><b>Unexpectedly, to realize cyberpunk, banana milkshake has become the primary productive force...</b></p><p>(Looking forward to returning to Neuralink to diversify its products and launch its own brand of banana milkshake...)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c2314f0dfb833bc4a3e56c6ae2c764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source Concord Food</p><p>From banana milkshakes, to monkey brain plasticity</p><p>Of course, in addition to bananas, Neuralink is also using some more \"serious\" and \"high-tech\" stimulation methods to train more powerful monkeys, so that they can better train Neuralink to develop the next generation of brain-computer interface products. Various signal decoders, algorithm models, testing tools, etc. required.</p><p>In the example below, Neuralink uses a more sophisticated stimulation method.</p><p>This company has two phased goals, one of which I mentioned just now, that is, to help (paralyzed) people gain motor function.</p><p><b>Another phased goal is visual prosthesis: to help visually impaired people who have been living in the dark regain light through external devices + brain-computer interfaces.</b></p><p>For the vast majority of visually impaired people, the problem lies in the eyeball. Their optic nerve, the visual cortex in the brain, is most likely still intact. Therefore, Neuralink hopes to use brain-computer interface to transmit signals directly into the visual cortex through external sensors (cameras), so that blind people can regain light. In order to achieve this goal, Neuralink opened the skull in the visual cortex of the monkey brain and installed a brain-computer interface in it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c064703b54276484f2f559b73283e55\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>This time, however, the work is more complicated:</b>Instead of the simple logic of reading brain signals and controlling peripherals, it is completely reversed. The visual content obtained from the outside is compiled into original brain nerve signals and transmitted back to the brain.</p><p>Monkeys are not human, and there is no way to tell the experimenter what they saw or didn't see or what they saw. Therefore, Neuralink designed a new set of stimulation mechanisms (reverse correlation, a method commonly used in neuroscience):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6e64210fcf5baecf55f734a330f94b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p><b>1) Use the artificial intervention signal input from the brain-computer interface to stimulate the monkey's eyeball to move (for example, it can be simply understood as);</b></p><p><b>2) Use an external eye tracking device to verify whether the actual eye movement vector is consistent with the artificial signal;</b></p><p><b>3) When the results are consistent, use banana milkshake for incentive.</b></p><p>As shown in the figure below: the green line represents the movement path of the eyeball, and the flashing white dot serves as a control. You will see that the monkey's eyeball suddenly moves towards the position where there are no white spots, precisely because it receives a signal of human intervention through the brain-computer interface.</p><p>At first, the movement vector of the eyeball did not match the artificial signal.</p><p><b>Interestingly, however, as the test time became longer and the number of times increased, the monkeys became more skilled and the degree of compliance became higher and higher.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1748e97d5f1fac25d216b840062d0ecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>The brain refers to a plastic tissue. Simply put, the connections between synapses and neurons in the brain can establish new connections due to the influence of learning and experience, thus affecting individual behavior.</p><p>The Neuralink team is hoping for this plasticity, and through continuous training, monkeys can obtain a non-native low-dimensional vision with the help of external signals.</p><p><b>And if the application scale of this technology is further expanded, the complexity of the signal will become higher, from a single vector to a line, surface, shape and color, and the number of pixels will be further increased...</b></p><p><b>In that way, wouldn't those blind people be able to regain their vision?</b></p><p>The ideas are great and the outlook is optimistic. However, there are still many challenges, and there are still many technical thresholds to be crossed.</p><p>Neuralink provides a simulation diagram. It shows the vision that can be roughly obtained in the near future through the visual prosthesis technology of Neuralink brain-computer interface (note that this is not a real picture, just a simulated effect).</p><p>In an ideal visual prosthesis kit, images are acquired by a camera installed at eye level, transmitted to a mobile phone for signal processing, and then transmitted to the visual cortex in the brain through a brain-computer interface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de47bd60f04187618440d8d1efde85c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p>This can't help but remind me of Cyberpunk 2077. In the game, one of the first two cyberware the protagonist gets is the visual prosthesis Kiroshi Optics. With it, the protagonist, on the basis of normal vision, also gains the ability to scan electronic devices and hack them...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4631fb6c72d79ff47fd8f5b1f1ba7c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image Source TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix</p><p>Back to the real world<b>, visual</b>Righteousness<b>The body is not as cool as in the game for the time being.</b></p><p>A biotech author at MIT Technology Review wrote that,</p><p>\"Musk claims that prostheses can'restore 'vision-perhaps much later in the future.<b>The vision that can be produced through the prosthesis is not the vision that you and I have. It's more like a dot-like spot, and maybe it can be combined to form a simple display effect, just like the old-fashioned light bulb scoreboard. \"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d801892a136783cdce2d5eea2ac508\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: @ antonioregalado</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de66eb36d8b3b341cbb2b254e5232531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: MERIT</p><p>Even so, restoring the light to the blind is still a technological mission of great significance.</p><p>Of course, cyberpunk, as many outstanding literary and artistic works of a culture, also sounded the alarm for the future where human beings are too dependent on technology. Although the brain-computer interface technology revolution set off by Neuralink is exciting and fascinating, its many risks cannot be underestimated.</p><p>In the past year, Neuralink has also stepped up efforts to improve technical safety, and more importantly, to ensure the safety of users' lives. The company's efforts include:</p><p><ul><li>Developed techniques to replace human brain tissue for testing work in a laboratory environment, such as electrode testing using cortical cells cultivated in petri dishes (below).</p><p><b>\"The ultimate goal is to reduce or even completely eliminate the need for live animals and clinical trialers in future product development and testing,\" said a Neuralink expert.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3370eee74ef4d93e638d8c867ed841f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Developed a robotic surgery technology that does not require pioneering on the meninges (dura) and directly performs electrode implantation outside the meninges (pioneering on the meninges will lead to the generation of a large amount of tissue during the recovery process, covering and wrapping the interface equipment, and easily bringing infection risks. And very inconvenient for later equipment maintenance)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa8f5831619ad89656109e369f33b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Neuralink</p><p></li><li>Take upgradability as one of the core principles of technology research and development. As in the previous article, if you make a coin-sized hole in the skull, even if you try your best to control the wound, you will still face the problem of tissue caused by later healing, which will bring great difficulties to the later removal of the equipment. It is difficult to upgrade hardware, so the hardware must ensure the ability of software upgrade to the maximum extent.</li></ul><b>\"After all, no one wants to change the brain-computer interface like an iPhone every year. The best thing is to get it done in one step,\" Musk said.</b></p><p>In the real world, the first fire of this cyberpunk revolution seems to have been lit.</p><p>Maybe Neuralink can become a cyborg technology giant like \"Arasaka\" in the future...</p><p>\"I laughed because Elon Musk via NeuraLink. ™ Send a meme directly to my anterior cranial cortex. Oh my goodness, this is awesome. I blinked twice and used NeuraLike ™ Praise it and thought very seriously, \"Thank you sir! Please send Bitcoin.\" I opened my eyes and suddenly found it was dark and I was pinching someone by the neck. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/701b651d1724bd55535b8380fff15248\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7d49e809de085496b51cf7f2f836e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Internet</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">硅星人</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a370dedf78ec8709f7980cc3b5d33703","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3ODg4ODEwMA==&mid=2247524347&idx=1&sn=b2e61824c0a62ec065c1888f72605f3a&chksm=eb52f430dc257d26bf55f50a24c7903f8062fd3d1ab9c75df499daa678473db6f1f6ee72c2f5&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1202Ey6qC9jgexAb6zp58Y88&sharer_sharetime=1669941331728&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137562033","content_text":"脑机接口的革命，来得实在太快了。马斯克在硅谷举行的Neuralink沟通会上透露：首款脑机接口产品，名为N1，最快6个月内就可以启动人类测试。“为了我们的首次临床测试，我们正在非常努力地加紧各项工作准备，”马斯克轻描淡写地表示。“我们绝大部分的文书资料已经提交到了 FDA。我们估计大约再过6个月时间，大家就可以看到 Neuralink 装到人的脑袋上了。”Neuralink 拟推出的 N1 脑机接口（内部构造）   图片来源：Neuralink香蕉奶昔，赛博朋克的第一生产力整场发布会看下来，硅星人有一个最核心的感受：如果没有香蕉奶昔（banana smoothie），这场脑机接口的革命，恐怕不会来得这么快……为什么这么说呢？大家可能知道Neuralink这家公司过去以来一直是用猴子和猪等动物进行实验的。有名有姓的猴子，就有至少8只，没名字的预备役更是数不胜数。但是根据规定，Neuralink不能强迫它们参与配合实验……更何况，早在启动活体实验的初期Neuralink就已经明白一个道理：强扭的瓜不甜。让这些猴子做实验哪怕它们有一点被迫、不情愿，对实验效果都会有影响。于是Neuralink 开发出了一套“自愿参与”原则的激励方案：只要来做实验，就有无限量的香蕉奶昔供应！图片来源：Neuralink具体来说，就像条件反射那样，Neuralink 的饲养工作人员参与设计了一套强化机制：每当猴子参与了当前的实验，完成了一次操作，就会得到香蕉奶昔……这样，越做实验，喝的越爽。久而久之，就形成了刺激强化的反馈机制。下图你可以看到，这些猴子一边做着实验，一边从面前的管子里嘬着饮料。简直可以说是：高高兴兴做实验，开开心心喝奶昔……这样的反馈机制，在 Neuralink 最近两年的研发工作中，扮演了相当重要的角色。首先来看下面这个脑控光标的实验：图片来源：Neuralink（虽然看起来猴子都会打字了，然而并非如此，猴子怎么可能懂英语呢？）下一个键要按什么，实验工作人员早就设计好了，会在猴子面前 MacBook 的虚拟键盘上，会以黄色显眼的方式注明。而在激励机制的作用下，只要猴子通过意念脑控光标“移动”到下一个要按的键上，并发出“按下”的信号，管子里就会流出香甜可口的香蕉奶昔……在对于甜品的渴望驱使下，猴子打出了这么一句话：搞点夜点心切切吧 (can i please have snacks)……图片来源：Neuralink但 Neuralink 并不满足于让猴子用光标打字。毕竟它的阶段性目标之一，是让（瘫痪）的人们可以通过脑机信号来操控包括手机在内的常用电子设备。所以，这家公司的猴子大军，正在香蕉奶昔的驱动下，做着各种各样的训练工作，包括并不限于：点按和拖拽滑动输入手写手势识别等等……图片来源：Neuralink以手写为例：“一开始还是虚拟键盘。现在我们已经可以直接用脑机界面来读取信号，结合画面中的图形，和训练得到的信号模式，来精准地判断猴子在屏幕上写的是什么字”，一位 Neuralink 技术专家透露。这样下去，猴子恐怕真要“学会”写字、拼词了？以及，香蕉奶昔还能刺激猴子自己去给脑机接口充电！这样简直是给 Neuralink 的工作人员，省了大麻烦了……具体机制是这样设计的：他们将一棵树做成了“奶茶店”，然后把充电板放在了装饰的树杈里：图片来源：Neuralink这样，只要猴子想喝香蕉奶昔了，就会跑过去嘬管子。结果它的脑袋会正好对准充电板，一边喝饮料，一边充电。这设计，脑回路实在是很有意思！图片来源：Neuralink这场发布会的各嘉宾发言，总的来说给硅星人一个感觉，就是：我们在实验中遇到了一个技术问题 → 想了很多办法都解决不了 → 哎最后还得香蕉大法 → 没办法香蕉它真的管用啊！没想到实现赛博朋克，香蕉奶昔竟成了第一生产力……（期待回头 Neuralink 实现产品多元化，推出自主品牌的香蕉奶昔……）图片来源：Concord Food从香蕉奶昔，到猴脑的可塑性当然，除了香蕉之外，Neuralink也在用一些更加“正经”和更“高科技”的刺激方式，来训练出更厉害的猴子，好让它们转而更好地训练 Neuralink 开发下一代脑机接口产品需要的各种信号解码器、算法模型、测试工具等等。而在下面这个例子中，Neuralink 就是利用了更复杂的刺激方法。这家公司有两个阶段性目标，刚才提到了一个，也即帮助（瘫痪）人士获得运动功能。而另一个阶段性目标，则是视觉义体：通过外部设备+脑机接口的方式，帮助那些一直生活在黑暗中的视障人士，重获光明。绝大多数视障者，问题都出在眼球里，他们的视神经，大脑中的视觉皮层，很有可能仍然是完好的。于是 Neuralink 希望能够用脑机接口的方式，通过外置传感器（摄像头）来将信号直接传入视觉皮层，从而让失明者重获光明。为了实现这个目标，Neuralink 在猴子的猴脑视觉皮层部位开了颅，装了脑机接口进去。图片来源：Neuralink然而这次的工作更为复杂：不再是读取脑信号控制外设这种简单的逻辑，而是完全反过来，从外部获取的视觉内容，将它编译为原始的脑神经信号，传回到大脑里。猴子不是人，没有办法告诉实验人员自己看到了还是没看到、看到了什么东西。于是，Neuralink 又设计了一套新的刺激机制（逆相关reverse correlation，神经科学常用的方法）：图片来源：Neuralink1）用脑机接口输入的人工干预信号，刺激猴子的眼球进行移动（比如可以简单理解为）；2）用外置的眼球追踪设备，验证实际的眼球移动矢量，是否与人工信号相符；3）当结果相符的时候，使用香蕉奶昔进行激励。如下图所示：绿色线代表眼球的移动路径，闪现的白点作为对照。你会看到，猴子的眼球突然朝着没有出现白点的位置移动，正是因为通过脑机接口收到了人工干预的信号。最一开始，眼球的移动矢量和人工信号的相符的程度并不高。然而有趣的是，随着测试时间变长，次数增加，猴子越做越熟练，符合程度越来越高。图片来源：Neuralink大脑是指一种具有可塑性的组织，简单来说也即大脑内部的突触、神经元之间的连接可以由于学习和经验的影响建立新的连接，从而影响个体的行为。Neuralink 团队正是寄希望于这种可塑性，通过不断的训练来让猴子在外界信号的辅助下，获得一种非原生的低维视觉。而如果将这种技术的应用规模进一步扩容，让信号的复杂程度变高，从单一的矢量，升级为线、面、形状、颜色，让像素数量进一步增加……那样，不就能够让那些失明的人，重获视觉了吗？想法是伟大的，前景是乐观的。然而挑战仍然重重，还有很多技术门槛需要跨越。Neuralink 提供了一张模拟图。它展示了在不远的未来，通过Neuralink脑机接口的视觉义体技术，大致能够获得的视觉（注意这并不是真实图片，只是模拟的效果）。在一个理想的视觉义体套件中，通过一个安装在眼部高度的摄像机获取图像，传入手机进行信号处理，再通过脑机接口传输到大脑中的视觉皮层。图片来源：Neuralink这不禁令我想起了《赛博朋克2077》。在游戏中，主角拿到的头两件赛博义体（cyberware）之一，就是视觉义体 Kiroshi Optics。有了它，主角在正常视觉的基础上，还获得了扫描电子器件并对其进行黑客攻击的能力……图片来源：TriggerStudio/CD PROJEKT RED/Netflix回到现实世界，视觉义体暂时还没有在游戏里那么酷。麻省理工科技评论的一位生物科技作者写道指出，“马斯克宣称义体能够‘恢复’视觉——也许在很久以后的未来才能实现。能够通过义体产生的视觉并不是你和我所拥有的视觉。它更像是点状的光斑，也许能够通过组合的方式来形成一种简单的显示效果，就像老式的灯泡记分牌那样。”图片来源：@antonioregalado图片来源：MERIT即便如此，让失明者重获光明，仍然是一项有着重大意义的技术使命。当然，赛博朋克作为一种文化的诸多优秀文艺作品，也为人类过于依赖科技的未来敲响警钟。尽管Neuralink掀起的这场脑机接口技术革命令人兴奋神往，它的诸多风险仍然不可小觑。在过去一年时间里，Neuralink 也在加紧提高技术安全性，更重要的是确保使用者的生命安全。该公司的努力包括：开发了在实验室环境下，用于测试工作的，对人脑组织进行替代的技术，比如使用培养皿培植的皮质细胞进行电极测试（下图）。“最终目标是在未来产品研发和测试中，降低甚至完全消除对活体动物和临床试验者的需要，”一位 Neuralink 专家表示。图片来源：Neuralink开发了无需在脑膜 (dura) 上开创，直接在脑膜外进行电极植入的机器人手术技术（在脑膜上开创会导致恢复过程中生成大量组织，覆盖包裹住接口设备，容易带来感染隐患，并且非常不便于后期设备维护）图片来源：Neuralink将向上兼容能力（可升级性 upgradability）作为技术研发的核心原则之一。正如前一条，在颅骨上开一个硬币大小的口子，就算尽力控制创口，仍然会面临后期愈合而产生的组织的问题，对设备的后期移除带来巨大困难。升级硬件困难，所以硬件必须最大限度保证软件升级的能力。“毕竟没人想像每年换一台 iPhone 那样换脑机接口，最好的就是一步到位，”马斯克说到。现实世界中，这场赛博朋克的革命的第一把火，看来也已经点燃了。没准将来的 Neuralink，能够成为像“荒坂” (Arasaka) 那样的赛博格技术巨头……“我笑了，因为伊隆·马斯克通过NeuraLink.™直接将一个表情包发送到我的前颅皮层。哦，我的天啊，这太棒了。我眨了两次眼睛，用NeuraLike™赞了它，然后非常认真地想：“谢谢先生！请发送比特币。”我睁开眼睛，突然发现天已经黑了，而我正在掐着一个人的脖子。”图片来源：网络","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965312897,"gmtCreate":1669893633119,"gmtModify":1676538264756,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965312897","repostId":"1190139235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965304064,"gmtCreate":1669889630458,"gmtModify":1676538263794,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965304064","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global debt costs soar! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal debt costs soar! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A violent storm is brewing. The era of cheap money is rapidly becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. At present, many countries are in high debt and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently, the total global debt in the third quarter was US $290 trillion. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>As central banks continue their rate hike, borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments continue to rise, and economic and financial market risks pile up.</p><p>From the government level, compared with developed countries, emerging markets face greater debt risks, especially those countries that borrow a lot of dollar debt. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing up in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage expenditure is the heaviest burden for most families, so it is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>Worst-case scenario,<b>Some components of the global financial system may collapse.</b>From the large-scale bankruptcy of Japanese enterprises in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debts turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries survived the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been increasing, and a large part of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to already heavily indebted households.</b></p><p>Such \"time bombs\" no longer exist after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but they do in other countries.</p><p>For example, Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the countries with the highest household debt in the world, with a household debt-to-income ratio of 180%. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund after some borrowers had begun cutting payments.</p><p>At present, the ratio of household debt to income in Australia exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgage loans in the second quarter of this year were in a fragile financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached 6 times or higher.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). In Holland, Sweden and Norway, debt repayment as a proportion of household income is already much higher than this figure. If central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this proportion will exceed 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Joe Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, recently said that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, household debt, which accounts for more than 40% of mortgage loans, reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about 9.8989 trillion yuan) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters, and maintaining growth for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. A recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous baseline (100%). Private debt is mainly household debt.</p><p><b>More businesses will become insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF data, companies (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments and are the largest borrowers in the era of cheap money, but unlike governments, companies cannot solve debt crises by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has hit some so-called \"zombie companies\" the hardest, which generally can only make just enough money to repay their debts. In some ways, about one in five publicly traded companies already fit that definition when interest rates were low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", and the companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>The default rate of global junk bonds will almost double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the US $6.7 trillion high-rated corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses that tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. With the Fed's rate hike peaking early next year, they are likely to be forced to lay off staff. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment of the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, both stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that Federal Funds rate would be close to 5% during the lifetime of these deals.</b><b>The minutes of the November Federal Reserve FOMC meeting released last week showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden leverage\" in the non-bank sector that could undermine the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are even more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnamese and Indonesian real estate bond prices fell sharply; South Korea's Legoland default in October triggered panic selling in the credit market, and it also aggravated people's fears of default by real estate companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies usually don't face the same direct challenges to households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that doesn't mean they are impeccable.</p><p>Take the United Kingdom as an example. Former Prime Minister Truss's large-scale tax reduction plan almost collapsed the domestic Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the UK financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government still faces the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>Italy's public debt problem is almost the biggest headache among advanced economies.</b>According to the data previously released by Eurostat, by the end of the first quarter of this year, Italian government debt accounted for 152.6% of GDP, second only to Greece's 189.3%. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>By 2030, the interest that the government alone needs to pay will exceed 7% of GDP.</b></p><p>The United States may also face political difficulties on its debt issue. Faced with \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way for the Biden administration at present is to raise the debt ceiling, which requires the support of Republicans. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, domestic bank interest rates in the United States will soar, the stock market will plummet, and pension accounts will shrink sharply, and the U.S. economy will suffer a fatal blow.</p><p>In contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>Data released by the IIF last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, comparable to the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or face high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965977077,"gmtCreate":1669887131999,"gmtModify":1676538263424,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965977077","repostId":"1132114091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965072433,"gmtCreate":1669863195422,"gmtModify":1676538259271,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965072433","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564728,"gmtCreate":1669809938264,"gmtModify":1676538247754,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564728","repostId":"1170836510","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962564680,"gmtCreate":1669809884540,"gmtModify":1676538247740,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962564680","repostId":"1198215522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962562272,"gmtCreate":1669809650797,"gmtModify":1676538247685,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962562272","repostId":"1178477450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962648710,"gmtCreate":1669773611130,"gmtModify":1676538240258,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962648710","repostId":"2287795435","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287795435","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669734185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287795435?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 23:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Real estate stocks usher in epic surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287795435","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"翻身了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate sector, which has been in a downturn for a long time, has not seen such a scene for a long time.</p><p>November 29th, first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000736\">CCCC Real Estate</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600657\">Cinda Real Estate</a>Real estate stocks with small and medium-sized market capitalization have a daily limit. Then before the midday close, leading real estate companies such as Vanke, Gemdale and Greentown sealed their daily limit.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">Poly Development</a>There was also a daily limit during the session, up 9.61% at the close. The entire A-share real estate sector rose by 7.07% within the day, leading the rise in A-shares, with 40 stocks in the sector reaching their daily limit.</p><p>For Hong Kong stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01109\">China Resources Land</a>, Longfor and China Shipping and other real estate companies also led the sector, with individual stocks rising by more than 6%. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Shimao, CIFI and Sino-Ocean, etc., many domestic bonds of real estate companies have set off a wave of temporary suspension.</p><p>The last time Vanke's daily limit was two weeks ago, the rumor of the introduction of the \"16 Financial Articles\" caused the entire real estate sector to soar by 5%. Only this time, the capital market is even more restless. Except for the daily limit of leading real estate companies such as Vanke, the overall increase is not small.</p><p>Looking at the long-term timeline, in the past five years, the real estate sector has only increased by more than 7% once in 2020. It's just that the market was hot at that time, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 25% in just three months. The rise of the real estate sector was just a so-called low valuation repair following the rise of the banking and brokerage sectors. This is quite different from today's market situation.</p><p>The direct reason for the \"epic surge\" that the real estate sector has not seen in many years is that the spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated on November 28 that it will adjust the real estate equity financing policy, allow real estate companies to restructure and list in A-shares, and restore the refinancing channels of real estate companies in A-shares.</p><p>A-share listing, which almost stagnated after the introduction of the \"Ten Articles of the New Country\" in 2010, including Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande, Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group and other real estate tycoons, tried every means to make a breakthrough, but failed to do so. It suddenly became relaxed.</p><p>This makes the financing channels of housing enterprises further smooth. After a number of banks have provided trillions of credit support for real estate companies, and the bond financing support tools for real estate companies have continued to expand, the \"third arrow\", namely equity financing, has also been fired.</p><p>At present, on the financing side of real estate enterprises, the \"three arrows\" of loan financing, bond financing and equity financing have successively introduced policies.</p><p>Compared with loan financing and bond financing support, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's loosening of the refinancing of real estate companies has a wider coverage, and it is no longer just some leading real estate companies and high-quality real estate companies that benefit from it.</p><p>This is also reflected in the market. The first ones to hit the daily limit are small and medium-sized real estate companies such as CCCC Real Estate and Cinda Real Estate. They are the most direct beneficiaries of the liberalization of equity financing. Through non-public refinancing, these real estate companies can raise a lot of funds for policy-supported real estate business.</p><p>Like Cinda Real Estate, backed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01359\">China Cinda</a>This big tree has simultaneously acquired a lot of project resources under the background of Cinda's disposal of non-performing assets and relief of real estate companies. Including Kaisa and other dangerous real estate companies, Cinda Real Estate has intervened in the form of agent construction.</p><p>However, in addition to the rise of these small and medium-sized real estate companies, leading real estate companies will also benefit from the implementation of policies. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Including institutions pointed out that if high-credit real estate companies successfully raise funds, they are likely to further consolidate their market position, and with the repair of the balance sheets of high-quality real estate companies, the industrial chain is expected to be further stabilized, and asset prices will also stabilize., providing material conditions for the subsequent development of industrial mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>In other words, the long-awaited but rare mergers and acquisitions in the market in the past year will also be supported by this policy opening. Leading real estate companies such as China Shipping and China Resources Land will also take greater steps in mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>This is also similar to the reaction of today's market. The capital market votes with its feet and changes in stock prices, which intuitively reflects the reshaping of the entire real estate industry.</p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is pointed out that this policy adjustment is a milestone event for the real estate industry. It is helpful to boost market confidence in the short term and promote fundamental stabilization in the medium and long term.</p><p>Today, the expectations of the capital market have changed with this \"epic\" surge, and there can be more policy expectations on the consumer side, such as falling interest rates.</p><p>With the continuous implementation of policies, the credit of more real estate companies will be restored, the confidence of consumers and institutions in real estate companies will also return, and real estate will eventually embark on a road of stable and healthy development.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real estate stocks usher in epic surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal estate stocks usher in epic surge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-29 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate sector, which has been in a downturn for a long time, has not seen such a scene for a long time.</p><p>November 29th, first<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000736\">CCCC Real Estate</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600657\">Cinda Real Estate</a>Real estate stocks with small and medium-sized market capitalization have a daily limit. Then before the midday close, leading real estate companies such as Vanke, Gemdale and Greentown sealed their daily limit.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600048\">Poly Development</a>There was also a daily limit during the session, up 9.61% at the close. The entire A-share real estate sector rose by 7.07% within the day, leading the rise in A-shares, with 40 stocks in the sector reaching their daily limit.</p><p>For Hong Kong stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01109\">China Resources Land</a>, Longfor and China Shipping and other real estate companies also led the sector, with individual stocks rising by more than 6%. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>, Shimao, CIFI and Sino-Ocean, etc., many domestic bonds of real estate companies have set off a wave of temporary suspension.</p><p>The last time Vanke's daily limit was two weeks ago, the rumor of the introduction of the \"16 Financial Articles\" caused the entire real estate sector to soar by 5%. Only this time, the capital market is even more restless. Except for the daily limit of leading real estate companies such as Vanke, the overall increase is not small.</p><p>Looking at the long-term timeline, in the past five years, the real estate sector has only increased by more than 7% once in 2020. It's just that the market was hot at that time, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 25% in just three months. The rise of the real estate sector was just a so-called low valuation repair following the rise of the banking and brokerage sectors. This is quite different from today's market situation.</p><p>The direct reason for the \"epic surge\" that the real estate sector has not seen in many years is that the spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated on November 28 that it will adjust the real estate equity financing policy, allow real estate companies to restructure and list in A-shares, and restore the refinancing channels of real estate companies in A-shares.</p><p>A-share listing, which almost stagnated after the introduction of the \"Ten Articles of the New Country\" in 2010, including Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande, Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group and other real estate tycoons, tried every means to make a breakthrough, but failed to do so. It suddenly became relaxed.</p><p>This makes the financing channels of housing enterprises further smooth. After a number of banks have provided trillions of credit support for real estate companies, and the bond financing support tools for real estate companies have continued to expand, the \"third arrow\", namely equity financing, has also been fired.</p><p>At present, on the financing side of real estate enterprises, the \"three arrows\" of loan financing, bond financing and equity financing have successively introduced policies.</p><p>Compared with loan financing and bond financing support, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's loosening of the refinancing of real estate companies has a wider coverage, and it is no longer just some leading real estate companies and high-quality real estate companies that benefit from it.</p><p>This is also reflected in the market. The first ones to hit the daily limit are small and medium-sized real estate companies such as CCCC Real Estate and Cinda Real Estate. They are the most direct beneficiaries of the liberalization of equity financing. Through non-public refinancing, these real estate companies can raise a lot of funds for policy-supported real estate business.</p><p>Like Cinda Real Estate, backed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01359\">China Cinda</a>This big tree has simultaneously acquired a lot of project resources under the background of Cinda's disposal of non-performing assets and relief of real estate companies. Including Kaisa and other dangerous real estate companies, Cinda Real Estate has intervened in the form of agent construction.</p><p>However, in addition to the rise of these small and medium-sized real estate companies, leading real estate companies will also benefit from the implementation of policies. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Including institutions pointed out that if high-credit real estate companies successfully raise funds, they are likely to further consolidate their market position, and with the repair of the balance sheets of high-quality real estate companies, the industrial chain is expected to be further stabilized, and asset prices will also stabilize., providing material conditions for the subsequent development of industrial mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>In other words, the long-awaited but rare mergers and acquisitions in the market in the past year will also be supported by this policy opening. Leading real estate companies such as China Shipping and China Resources Land will also take greater steps in mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>This is also similar to the reaction of today's market. The capital market votes with its feet and changes in stock prices, which intuitively reflects the reshaping of the entire real estate industry.</p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is pointed out that this policy adjustment is a milestone event for the real estate industry. It is helpful to boost market confidence in the short term and promote fundamental stabilization in the medium and long term.</p><p>Today, the expectations of the capital market have changed with this \"epic\" surge, and there can be more policy expectations on the consumer side, such as falling interest rates.</p><p>With the continuous implementation of policies, the credit of more real estate companies will be restored, the confidence of consumers and institutions in real estate companies will also return, and real estate will eventually embark on a road of stable and healthy development.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676184\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c69408b096e1ffddb79e1de5762142","relate_stocks":{"02007":"碧桂园","000736":"*ST中地"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676184","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287795435","content_text":"低迷许久的地产板块，已经很久没有看到过这样的场景了。11月29日，先是中交地产、信达地产等中小市值的地产股一字涨停。随后在午盘收盘前，万科、金地和绿城等龙头房企封住涨停。保利发展盘中也一度涨停，至收盘涨9.61%。整个A股房地产板块日内上涨了7.07%，领涨A股，板块内40只股票涨停。港股方面，华润置地、龙湖和中海等房企也领涨板块，个股涨幅超6%。包括碧桂园、世茂、旭辉和远洋等在内，多家房企境内债掀起了临停潮。上一次万科涨停还是在两周前，“金融十六条”出台的传闻让整个地产板块大涨5%。只不过这一次，资本市场更加躁动，除了万科等龙头房企涨停外，整体涨幅都不小。拉长时间轴来看，近5年里，地产板块仅在2020年时有一次涨幅超过7%。只不过彼时市场火热，沪指在短短三个月里上涨了超25%，房地产板块的上涨也不过是跟着银行、券商板块上涨，进行所谓的低估值修复罢了。这与如今的市场情况截然不同。让地产板块迎来多年未遇的“史诗级暴涨”的直接原因，是证监会新闻发言人在11月28日表示，将会对房地产股权融资政策进行调整，允许房企在A股重组上市，恢复房企在A股的再融资渠道。A股上市，这个在2010年“新国十条”出台后几乎停滞，包括恒大董事会主席许家印、万达集团董事长王健林等地产大佬，想方设法想要突破，却一直未能如愿的事情，就这样突然变得轻松了起来。这使得房企在融资渠道上进一步畅通。在多家银行为房企提供数万亿授信支持、房企债券融资支持工具持续扩容之后，“第三支箭”即股权融资也已射出。目前，在房企融资端，贷款融资、债券融资和股权融资的“三支箭”均陆续出台了政策。相比在贷款融资、债券融资支持，这次证监会对房企再融资的松绑，覆盖面更加广泛，从中获益的也不再只是一些龙头房企、优质房企。这也反映到市场上，率先一字涨停的都是中交地产、信达地产等中小型房企，它们是此次股权融资放开最直接的受益对象。通过以非公开方式再融资，这些房企可以募得不少资金用在政策支持的房地产业务上。像信达地产，背靠中国信达这棵大树，在信达系处置不良资产，对房企解危纾困的背景下，已同步获取了不少项目资源。包括佳兆业等出险房企的项目纾困上，信达地产已以代建等形式介入其中。不过除了这些中小房企的崛起，龙头房企也会随着政策落地而获益。包括中信证券在内的机构指出，高信用的房企如果顺利融资，很可能进一步巩固自身的市场地位，并且随着优质房企资产负债表的修复，产业链预期也会进一步稳定，资产价格也会稳定下来，为接下来的产业并购开展提供物质条件。也就是说，过去一年市场里期待已久，但鲜少发生的收并购，也会随着这次政策开阀得到支撑。像中海、华润置地等龙头房企，也会在收并购上步子迈得更大些。这也和今天市场的反应相似，资本市场用脚投票，用股价的变化，直观地体现出了整个地产行业的格局重塑。正如中金公司所指出，此次政策调整，对于房地产行业而言是里程碑式事件。对短期提振市场信心和中长期促进基本面企稳均有助益。如今，资本市场的预期已然随着这场“史诗级”暴涨而改变，接下来在消费端，比如说利率下降方面，也可以有更多政策期待了。随着政策不断落地，更多房企的信用会得以修复，消费者、机构对于房企的信心也会回来，房地产终会走上平稳健康发展的路。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000736":0.9,"02007":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962657477,"gmtCreate":1669772899500,"gmtModify":1676538240049,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962657477","repostId":"1170581889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170581889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669769401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170581889?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 08:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Mystery of Low Bank Valuation: From Banks Own Views","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170581889","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险，比如不良贷款，而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。A股银行股持续处于低估状态","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The ability of domestic bank management to navigate new risks has not been recognized by the market. The risk here does not just refer to a certain business risk, such as non-performing loans, but a \"new risk\", which refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of overall economic model transformation. A-share bank stocks continue to be undervalued. What is even more unacceptable is that the valuation of many high-quality A-share banks is even lower than that of many large overseas banks with worse profits, which is completely unexplained under the PB-ROE framework. To this end, people from all sides in the market have given various explanations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9b36ffa054e8f96837b636aa2cb40a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem of bank valuation is not a hot topic in academic circles, and only a few papers are mostly for bank practitioners, and there are not many achievements in academic circles.</p><p>This paper presents a paper entitled<b>Discussion on the Importance of Bank Market Value and the Low Valuation of China's Banking Industry</b>(hereinafter referred to as the \"article\"), the author is Dr. Huang Zhiling, then chief economist of China Construction Bank, published in \"Credit Information\" magazine in January 2021 (sponsored by Zhengzhou Training Institute of the People's Bank of China).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047c12359cd134c85be34f118de32f8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the fact that the performance of China's bank stocks is acceptable but the valuation is extremely low, this paper discusses the reasons behind it, and some thoughts on the market value of banks.</p><p>This article is divided into three parts (this article is divided into four parts to introduce). The logic is concise and clear, and it gives us an interpretation of the low valuation problem from the perspective of the internal management of the bank.</p><p><b>How to view bank market capitalization</b></p><p>This article points out that the market value or valuation of a bank represents the market's comprehensive cognition of a bank's development prospects. In the long run, it can be used as a good evaluation index, so it should attract the attention of all parties.</p><p>Bank evaluation has always been a long-standing problem in the industry. Because the indicators of banks involve all aspects. The essence of commercial banks' operation is the balance of three properties (profitability, liquidity and security), so we can't simply use profit as one dimension, but we have to take into account risks or others. Usually, when we do bank analysis, asset scale, profitability, risk control, social responsibility and other aspects will be involved, so it is difficult to use one or two indicators to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</p><p>In response to this problem, various so-called comprehensive evaluation systems have been developed in the industry, and their principles are roughly the same:<b>Select some representative indicators in all aspects of the bank, then give a certain weight to each indicator, and then weigh and sum them to get a comprehensive score (or rating). Then use this comprehensive score to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</b>For example, the earliest \"CAMEL\" rating, the regulatory rating of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the financial institution rating of the People's Bank of China, and the \"gyro evaluation system\" of the Banking Association are generally this routine. Our team itself has also developed a bank credit evaluation system, that is, finding a bunch of indicators that we think are important to bank credit risk, empowering and summing, and getting ratings. Available in the June 2022 report<b>Bank Credit Risk Analysis: Framework and Model</b>。</p><p>This set of evaluation system requires a small range of experts to artificially select indicators and set weights, so it is impossible to be completely accurate, and sometimes some results that are inconsistent with intuitive feelings will come out. To this end, we can change our thinking: instead of being evaluated by a small range of experts, we can pull banks into the market to \"walk around\" and let the market evaluate them. Banks themselves disclose all kinds of data and information and put them in front of the whole market, which will be comprehensively evaluated by Mr. Market. Market value or valuation is a result after Mr. Market's comprehensive evaluation.</p><p>Of course, the market can make mistakes and even be manipulated in the short term. But in the long run, it is reliable, at least more reliable than small-scale experts, right?</p><p><b>Therefore, market value or valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation of banks.</b>From the point of view of this article, the bank management can't ignore the market value, and feel that it can report to its superiors if it manages the bank's performance well. Instead, it should be deeply aware that if the market value is so low, it must reflect some problems and cannot be ignored. Now we are gratified to see that the policy authorities have also taken market value as one of the assessment contents of state-owned enterprises.</p><p><b>Cannot be singly attributed</b></p><p>The article then points out that since valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation given by the market, the low valuation cannot be attributed to one or two factors (that is, one or two indicators of banks cannot be used to explain its low valuation). And this single attribution method happened to be what our securities analysts used in the past.</p><p>At that time, the background was: all aspects of the bank's operation were OK, and there were not many particularly negative indicators. Only one indicator was relatively negative, that is, there were more non-performing loans. Therefore, if a bank's PB is lower than 1 times, for example, 0.8-0.9 times, it implies that the market thinks that the bank's net assets are inflated and moisturized. The part of the discount is the hidden non-performing loans. If this part of \"hidden bad\" is exposed, then the NPL ratio of banks may reach 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf31544c23afd222183e0db6d9874999\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This method cannot be used when PB falls below 0.7 times or even lower. Because according to this method, when the PB level is low, the calculated NPL ratio is extremely high, and some stocks will even be as high as more than 20%... The NPL ratio of these mainstream banks listed in China will never reach this level (at least most of them will not). It can be seen that poor hiding can no longer explain the extremely low valuation.</p><p>Therefore, this article needs to answer a core question: So why is the valuation of banks so low?</p><p><b>Reasons for Low Valuation</b></p><p><b>This article directly gives the point of view: the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks has not been confirmed by the market.</b>The risk here is not just a business risk (such as non-performing loans), but<b>\"New Risks\"</b>, refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model.</p><p>Many environmental changes that we have learned in school (interest rate liberalization, financial internationalization, financial disintermediation, direct financial development, etc.) are really happening now. To tell the truth, these things happened later than expected. After all, we were learning these things when we went to college 20 years ago (at that time, the United States and other developed western countries had already experienced it). But what is disappointing is that 20 years ago, we started to shout these things, and asked banks to cultivate all kinds of \"internal strength\". Today, many of our banks are still not fully ready. This has to be said to be a pity and a very urgent task. Now the country is promoting a higher level of opening to the outside world. If its wings are not hard, it will not be able to find the north when flying out...</p><p>Of course, this does not deny that China's banking industry has made great progress in internal strength in the past ten years. However, the times are also progressing, and so are excellent overseas banks, so we can't be complacent about the existing report card.</p><p><b>In short, although our bank's current performance is still very good, its business model and management model (internal strength) are still not advanced enough to fully adapt to the new economic development environment (at least the market can't confirm the bank's ability).</b>As an executive of a large bank, the author takes this as the main reason to explain the low valuation of banks from the perspective of the bank inside. This is important to us<b>\"External Eyes\"</b>It's a lot of inspiration.</p><p>This article lists some capabilities that banks do not yet fully possess, but are urgently needed in the new environment, including:</p><p>(1) To restrict and encourage effective corporate governance ability, especially in terms of incentives, it is advisable to learn from overseas countries and change the existing rigid salary; (2) The ability to change the internal structure, process and mechanism, and truly realize customer-centeredness; (3) Many banks still lack international operating capabilities to cope with globalization, including specific businesses such as RMB derivatives, market services, global financial services, wealth or asset management capabilities, etc. From these perspectives, we do admit that the capabilities of many banks in China are indeed somewhat lacking. Although the performance is OK, if the ability does not keep up, there is no guarantee that the future performance will continue to be good, and sooner or later it will become a \"dinosaur\" that is about to become extinct in the new economic environment. Compared with overseas banks, of course, not all their banks are good (and uneven), but some cases make us sigh after reading them. For example, some particularly small banks, even small banks in towns, are small and have all the five internal organs, and their business philosophies and business models are very standardized. For example, Bank of America West, which we tracked last time, is a very small bank with a very mature wealth business model. Please refer to \"The Road to Create Characteristic Wealth Management for Small and Medium-sized Banks\".</p><p>Therefore, looking at the underlying capabilities of domestic and foreign banks through these \"superficial\" figures of financial performance, there is indeed a gap, which may explain our extremely low valuation. Of course, there is no need to belittle yourself. There are also a number of excellent banks in China.</p><p><b>Pay attention to the theory and practice of market value management</b></p><p>This article also puts forward some thoughts on market value management. If a bank has a good market value, it will have many benefits, which in turn will promote its own development. The market value is good, which in itself is a reflection of the comprehensive evaluation of the Bank. At the same time, it can increase the difficulty of being acquired, reduce the difficulty of other acquisitions, and at the same time reduce the financing cost and difficulty. There are even real cases in which high-quality banks in China have increased their popularity in the business community (shareholders all know it) because of their high market value and large increase, thus helping them to develop their business.</p><p>The article concludes with a few points:</p><p>(1) Market value is a comprehensive evaluation, not an evaluation of certain indicators. It is of little significance to deliberately optimize some popular indicators (such as increasing the proportion of middle income, increasing the proportion of wealth business, etc.), but to improve the overall quality of the bank, the whole bank strives for the overall strength; (2) Improve corporate governance and clarify the division of labor in market value management; (3) Strengthen investment and customs clearance work and actively communicate with investors (some banks have established normalized communication mechanisms with investors and analysts, which is worth learning from); (4) Effective use of market value resources and capital operation; (5) Establish a good image of the capital market; (6) Put an end to pseudo-market value management behaviors such as stock price manipulation. Indeed, more and more banks are beginning to pay attention to these jobs.</p><p>Because, in this paper, the viewpoint of the paper is that the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks<b>\"Not confirmed by the market\"</b>。 In other words, our banks do not necessarily lack these capabilities, or it may be: in fact, the capabilities are gradually acquired, but the market still doesn't know it and can't see it...</p><p>Because these abilities are very intrinsic abilities (so they are called \"internal strength\"), it is difficult to simply show this ability to the market with one or two indicators.</p><p>For example: People often ask me, which bank has the stronger financial technology now?</p><p>This kind of question is almost impossible to answer. The ability of financial technology is a typical internal strength, and it is difficult to simply compare it.</p><p>Here is the test of the ability of market value management.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Mystery of Low Bank Valuation: From Banks Own Views</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Mystery of Low Bank Valuation: From Banks Own Views\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The ability of domestic bank management to navigate new risks has not been recognized by the market. The risk here does not just refer to a certain business risk, such as non-performing loans, but a \"new risk\", which refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of overall economic model transformation. A-share bank stocks continue to be undervalued. What is even more unacceptable is that the valuation of many high-quality A-share banks is even lower than that of many large overseas banks with worse profits, which is completely unexplained under the PB-ROE framework. To this end, people from all sides in the market have given various explanations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f9b36ffa054e8f96837b636aa2cb40a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem of bank valuation is not a hot topic in academic circles, and only a few papers are mostly for bank practitioners, and there are not many achievements in academic circles.</p><p>This paper presents a paper entitled<b>Discussion on the Importance of Bank Market Value and the Low Valuation of China's Banking Industry</b>(hereinafter referred to as the \"article\"), the author is Dr. Huang Zhiling, then chief economist of China Construction Bank, published in \"Credit Information\" magazine in January 2021 (sponsored by Zhengzhou Training Institute of the People's Bank of China).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/047c12359cd134c85be34f118de32f8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the fact that the performance of China's bank stocks is acceptable but the valuation is extremely low, this paper discusses the reasons behind it, and some thoughts on the market value of banks.</p><p>This article is divided into three parts (this article is divided into four parts to introduce). The logic is concise and clear, and it gives us an interpretation of the low valuation problem from the perspective of the internal management of the bank.</p><p><b>How to view bank market capitalization</b></p><p>This article points out that the market value or valuation of a bank represents the market's comprehensive cognition of a bank's development prospects. In the long run, it can be used as a good evaluation index, so it should attract the attention of all parties.</p><p>Bank evaluation has always been a long-standing problem in the industry. Because the indicators of banks involve all aspects. The essence of commercial banks' operation is the balance of three properties (profitability, liquidity and security), so we can't simply use profit as one dimension, but we have to take into account risks or others. Usually, when we do bank analysis, asset scale, profitability, risk control, social responsibility and other aspects will be involved, so it is difficult to use one or two indicators to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</p><p>In response to this problem, various so-called comprehensive evaluation systems have been developed in the industry, and their principles are roughly the same:<b>Select some representative indicators in all aspects of the bank, then give a certain weight to each indicator, and then weigh and sum them to get a comprehensive score (or rating). Then use this comprehensive score to evaluate \"who is better than who\".</b>For example, the earliest \"CAMEL\" rating, the regulatory rating of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the financial institution rating of the People's Bank of China, and the \"gyro evaluation system\" of the Banking Association are generally this routine. Our team itself has also developed a bank credit evaluation system, that is, finding a bunch of indicators that we think are important to bank credit risk, empowering and summing, and getting ratings. Available in the June 2022 report<b>Bank Credit Risk Analysis: Framework and Model</b>。</p><p>This set of evaluation system requires a small range of experts to artificially select indicators and set weights, so it is impossible to be completely accurate, and sometimes some results that are inconsistent with intuitive feelings will come out. To this end, we can change our thinking: instead of being evaluated by a small range of experts, we can pull banks into the market to \"walk around\" and let the market evaluate them. Banks themselves disclose all kinds of data and information and put them in front of the whole market, which will be comprehensively evaluated by Mr. Market. Market value or valuation is a result after Mr. Market's comprehensive evaluation.</p><p>Of course, the market can make mistakes and even be manipulated in the short term. But in the long run, it is reliable, at least more reliable than small-scale experts, right?</p><p><b>Therefore, market value or valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation of banks.</b>From the point of view of this article, the bank management can't ignore the market value, and feel that it can report to its superiors if it manages the bank's performance well. Instead, it should be deeply aware that if the market value is so low, it must reflect some problems and cannot be ignored. Now we are gratified to see that the policy authorities have also taken market value as one of the assessment contents of state-owned enterprises.</p><p><b>Cannot be singly attributed</b></p><p>The article then points out that since valuation is also a comprehensive evaluation given by the market, the low valuation cannot be attributed to one or two factors (that is, one or two indicators of banks cannot be used to explain its low valuation). And this single attribution method happened to be what our securities analysts used in the past.</p><p>At that time, the background was: all aspects of the bank's operation were OK, and there were not many particularly negative indicators. Only one indicator was relatively negative, that is, there were more non-performing loans. Therefore, if a bank's PB is lower than 1 times, for example, 0.8-0.9 times, it implies that the market thinks that the bank's net assets are inflated and moisturized. The part of the discount is the hidden non-performing loans. If this part of \"hidden bad\" is exposed, then the NPL ratio of banks may reach 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf31544c23afd222183e0db6d9874999\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This method cannot be used when PB falls below 0.7 times or even lower. Because according to this method, when the PB level is low, the calculated NPL ratio is extremely high, and some stocks will even be as high as more than 20%... The NPL ratio of these mainstream banks listed in China will never reach this level (at least most of them will not). It can be seen that poor hiding can no longer explain the extremely low valuation.</p><p>Therefore, this article needs to answer a core question: So why is the valuation of banks so low?</p><p><b>Reasons for Low Valuation</b></p><p><b>This article directly gives the point of view: the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks has not been confirmed by the market.</b>The risk here is not just a business risk (such as non-performing loans), but<b>\"New Risks\"</b>, refers to whether the development of banks can adapt to future environmental changes in the process of transforming the overall economic model.</p><p>Many environmental changes that we have learned in school (interest rate liberalization, financial internationalization, financial disintermediation, direct financial development, etc.) are really happening now. To tell the truth, these things happened later than expected. After all, we were learning these things when we went to college 20 years ago (at that time, the United States and other developed western countries had already experienced it). But what is disappointing is that 20 years ago, we started to shout these things, and asked banks to cultivate all kinds of \"internal strength\". Today, many of our banks are still not fully ready. This has to be said to be a pity and a very urgent task. Now the country is promoting a higher level of opening to the outside world. If its wings are not hard, it will not be able to find the north when flying out...</p><p>Of course, this does not deny that China's banking industry has made great progress in internal strength in the past ten years. However, the times are also progressing, and so are excellent overseas banks, so we can't be complacent about the existing report card.</p><p><b>In short, although our bank's current performance is still very good, its business model and management model (internal strength) are still not advanced enough to fully adapt to the new economic development environment (at least the market can't confirm the bank's ability).</b>As an executive of a large bank, the author takes this as the main reason to explain the low valuation of banks from the perspective of the bank inside. This is important to us<b>\"External Eyes\"</b>It's a lot of inspiration.</p><p>This article lists some capabilities that banks do not yet fully possess, but are urgently needed in the new environment, including:</p><p>(1) To restrict and encourage effective corporate governance ability, especially in terms of incentives, it is advisable to learn from overseas countries and change the existing rigid salary; (2) The ability to change the internal structure, process and mechanism, and truly realize customer-centeredness; (3) Many banks still lack international operating capabilities to cope with globalization, including specific businesses such as RMB derivatives, market services, global financial services, wealth or asset management capabilities, etc. From these perspectives, we do admit that the capabilities of many banks in China are indeed somewhat lacking. Although the performance is OK, if the ability does not keep up, there is no guarantee that the future performance will continue to be good, and sooner or later it will become a \"dinosaur\" that is about to become extinct in the new economic environment. Compared with overseas banks, of course, not all their banks are good (and uneven), but some cases make us sigh after reading them. For example, some particularly small banks, even small banks in towns, are small and have all the five internal organs, and their business philosophies and business models are very standardized. For example, Bank of America West, which we tracked last time, is a very small bank with a very mature wealth business model. Please refer to \"The Road to Create Characteristic Wealth Management for Small and Medium-sized Banks\".</p><p>Therefore, looking at the underlying capabilities of domestic and foreign banks through these \"superficial\" figures of financial performance, there is indeed a gap, which may explain our extremely low valuation. Of course, there is no need to belittle yourself. There are also a number of excellent banks in China.</p><p><b>Pay attention to the theory and practice of market value management</b></p><p>This article also puts forward some thoughts on market value management. If a bank has a good market value, it will have many benefits, which in turn will promote its own development. The market value is good, which in itself is a reflection of the comprehensive evaluation of the Bank. At the same time, it can increase the difficulty of being acquired, reduce the difficulty of other acquisitions, and at the same time reduce the financing cost and difficulty. There are even real cases in which high-quality banks in China have increased their popularity in the business community (shareholders all know it) because of their high market value and large increase, thus helping them to develop their business.</p><p>The article concludes with a few points:</p><p>(1) Market value is a comprehensive evaluation, not an evaluation of certain indicators. It is of little significance to deliberately optimize some popular indicators (such as increasing the proportion of middle income, increasing the proportion of wealth business, etc.), but to improve the overall quality of the bank, the whole bank strives for the overall strength; (2) Improve corporate governance and clarify the division of labor in market value management; (3) Strengthen investment and customs clearance work and actively communicate with investors (some banks have established normalized communication mechanisms with investors and analysts, which is worth learning from); (4) Effective use of market value resources and capital operation; (5) Establish a good image of the capital market; (6) Put an end to pseudo-market value management behaviors such as stock price manipulation. Indeed, more and more banks are beginning to pay attention to these jobs.</p><p>Because, in this paper, the viewpoint of the paper is that the ability of domestic bank management to control new risks<b>\"Not confirmed by the market\"</b>。 In other words, our banks do not necessarily lack these capabilities, or it may be: in fact, the capabilities are gradually acquired, but the market still doesn't know it and can't see it...</p><p>Because these abilities are very intrinsic abilities (so they are called \"internal strength\"), it is difficult to simply show this ability to the market with one or two indicators.</p><p>For example: People often ask me, which bank has the stronger financial technology now?</p><p>This kind of question is almost impossible to answer. The ability of financial technology is a typical internal strength, and it is difficult to simply compare it.</p><p>Here is the test of the ability of market value management.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676240\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e95f8d8c314466bbcd01bdb562ed3f","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676240","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170581889","content_text":"国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险，比如不良贷款，而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。A股银行股持续处于低估状态，更令人难以接受的是，A股很多优质银行，估值比很多盈利更差的海外大型银行估值还要低，在PB-ROE框架下完全无法解释。为此，市场各方人士给出各种解释。银行估值问题还不是学术上的热门话题，仅有的少数论文也多为银行从业人员，学术界的成果还不多。本文介绍一篇论文，题为《银行市值的重要性与中国银行业估值偏低的讨论》（以下简称“该文”），作者是时任建设银行首席经济学家的黄志凌博士，于2021年1月发表于《征信》杂志（人民银行郑州培训学院主办）。该文从我国银行股业绩尚可但估值极低这一事实出发，讨论其背后的原因，以及对银行市值工作的一些思考。该文分为三部分（本文拆为四部分介绍），逻辑简练清晰，给我们呈现一个银行内部管理层的视角对低估值问题的解读。如何看待银行市值该文提出，银行市值或估值，是代表着市场对一家银行发展前景的综合认知，长期看，可以作为一个很好的评价指标，所以应该引起各方重视。银行评价一直是业内的老大难问题。因为，银行的指标涉及方方面面。商业银行的经营本质是三性平衡（盈利性、流动性、安全性），因此不能简单用盈利一个维度，还得兼顾风险或其他。平时我们做银行分析时，资产规模、盈利能力、风险控制、社会责任等各方面都会涉及，于是就很难用一两个指标来评价“谁比谁好”。针对这一问题，业内开发各种所谓的综合评价体系，其原理大致都一样：在银行的各方面挑选一些代表性指标，然后对各个指标给予一定权重，然后加权求和，得到一个综合得分（或评级）。然后用这个综合得分来评价“谁比谁好”。比如，最早的“骆驼”（CAMEL）评级、银保监会的监管评级、人民银行的金融机构评级、银行业协会的“陀螺评价体系”等，大体都是这个套路。我们团队自己，也开发过一个银行信用评价体系，也就是找到一堆我们觉得对银行信用风险比较重要的指标，赋权求和，得到评级。可参见2022年6月的报告《银行信用风险分析：框架与模型》。这一套套的评价体系，需要小范围专家人为选择指标、设置权重，因此不可能完全准确，有时候会出来一些与直观感受不符的结果。为此，可以换一个思路：不由小范围的专家来评价，而是把银行拉到市场上“溜一圈”，让市场来评价。银行自己把各种数据、信息披露出来，摆到全市场面前，由市场先生综合评价。市值或估值，就是市场先生综合评价完之后的一个结果。当然，市场短期内是会犯错的，甚至会被操纵。但长期看，是可靠的，好歹比小范围专家更可靠吧？所以，市值或估值同样是大家对银行的一种综合评价。从该文观点推导出去，银行管理层不能无视市值，觉得自己把银行业绩经营好就可以向上级汇报，而要深刻意识到，如果市值如此之低，那么肯定是反映了一些问题的，不能无视之。我们现在可喜地看到，政策当局也已经将市值作为对国企的考核内容之一。不能单一归因该文接着指出，既然估值也是市场给出的一种综合评价，那么就不能把低估值归因于一两个因素（就是不能用银行的一两个指标来解释其低估值）。而这种单一归因方法，刚好是我们证券分析师过去用的。当时的背景是：银行各方面经营情况还可以，找不到太多特别负面的指标，惟独有一个指标比较负面，就是有较多不良贷款。因此，如果一家银行PB低于1倍，比如到了0.8-0.9倍，那么就暗示着，市场认为该行的净资产是虚高的，有水分的。而该折让的部分，就是藏匿的不良贷款。如果这部分“藏匿的不良”暴露出来，那么银行的不良率可能会达到8%。这一方法在PB跌至0.7倍以下甚至更低的时候，就不能用了。因为按这个方法，在PB级低时，倒算出来的不良率极其高，有些个股甚至会高至20%以上……国内上市的这些主流银行的不良率绝对不会到这个水平（至少大部分不会）。可见，藏匿不良这个已经不能解释极低估值了。于是，该文就需要回答一个最核心的问题：那么银行估值为何如此之低？低估值的原因该文直接给出了观点：国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力未得到市场确认。这里的风险不是单指某种业务风险（比如不良贷款），而是“新风险”，是指在整体经济模式转变的过程中，银行的发展能不能适应未来环境变化。很多我们上学时就已经学到过的一些环境变化（利率市场化、金融国际化、金融脱媒、直接金融发展等），现在正在真正地发生。说实话，这些事情的发生比预想的要晚，毕竟我们20年前上大学时就在学这些了（当时美国等西方发达国际已经经历过了）。但令人失望的是，20年前我们就已开始喊这些事，要让银行修炼各种“内功”，时至今日，我们的很多银行竟然依然没有完全准备好。这不得不说是一个遗憾，也是非常紧迫的任务。现在国家在推动更高水平对外开放，如果自身翅膀不硬，飞出去都找不到北……当然，这并不能抹杀我国银行业在过去十几年中，内功还是有巨大进步的。只是，时代也在进步，海外优秀银行也在进步，因此我们还不能在现有的成绩单上自满。简言之，我们的银行，虽然现在的业绩还很不错，但业务模式、管理模式（内功）依然是不够先进的，并不能完全适应新的经济发展环境（至少市场还不能确认银行能力）。作者作为大型银行高管，从银行内部的视角，将这一点作为解释银行低估值的主因。这一点对我们这些“外部的眼睛”有很大启发。该文列举了一些银行现在尚未完全具备的，但又是新环境中所急需的能力，包括：（1）制约和激励有效的公司治理能力，尤其是激励方面，宜借鉴海外，改变现有的刚性薪酬；（2）内部架构、流程和机制的变革能力，真正实现以客户为中心；（3）应对全球化的国际经营能力，包括人民币衍生品、市场服务、全球金融服务、财富或资管能力等具体业务，很多银行仍然能力欠缺。从这些角度，我们确实承认，我国很多银行的能力确实还有些欠缺。虽然业绩还可以，但如果能力不跟上，并不能保证未来业绩能继续好，早晚会成为在新经济环境中即将灭绝的“恐龙”。对比海外，他们的银行当然也不是家家都好（也是参差不齐的），但有些案例让我们看了后也心生感叹。比如一些特别小的银行，甚至是镇上的小银行，麻雀虽小、五脏具全，里面的经营理念、业务模式都非常规范。比如我们上次跟踪过的美西银行，一家很小的银行，财富业务模式却非常成熟。请参考《中小行打造特色化财富管理之路》。所以，透过财务业绩这些“表面”的数字，去观察国内外银行的底层能力，确实还有差距，这可能解释我们的极低估值。当然，也不用妄自菲薄，我国也有一批优秀的银行。重视市值管理的理论与实践该文也提了一些对市值管理的思考。一家银行如果市值好，会有很多好处，反过来促进自身发展。市值好，这本身就是对本行综合评价的一个体现。同时，能增加被收购的难度，降低收购别的难度，同时也能降低融资成本和难度。甚至，国内还有优质银行因为市值高、涨幅大，在企业界增加了知名度（股民都知道它），从而帮助其展业的真实案例。该文最后提了几点：（1）市值是综合评价，不是对某些指标的评价，刻意优化某些热门指标意义不大（比如提升中收占比、提升财富业务占比之类的），而要提升银行的整体素质，全行上下为整体实力而努力；（2）完善公司治理，明确市值管理工作的分工；（3）加强投关工作，多主动与投资者沟通（有些银行建立与投资者、分析师的常态化沟通机制，值得借鉴）；（4）有效利用市值资源，资本运作；（5）树立良好的资本市场形象；（6）杜绝操纵股价等伪市值管理行为。这些工作确实有越来越多的银行开始重视。因为，前文，论文观点是国内银行管理层驾驭新风险的能力“未得到市场确认”。也就是说，我们的银行并不一定没这些能力，也可能是：其实能力慢慢有了，但市场还不知道，看不出来……只因，这些能力又是很内在的能力（所以叫“内功”），很难简单用一两个指标向市场展示这种能力。举个例子：经常有人问我，现在哪家银行的金融科技比较强？这种问题就几乎没法回答。金融科技这种能力就是典型的内功，很难简单比较。这里就考验市值管理的能力了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962655338,"gmtCreate":1669772580824,"gmtModify":1676538239949,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962655338","repostId":"2287903687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287903687","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669769658,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287903687?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 08:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dollar: Will 2023 Be More Like 1974 or 1981?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287903687","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美元见顶会是明年重要的交易主题","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Soochow Securities believes that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in 2023. second quarter of the year. The marginal improvement of the European and Chinese economies together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the US dollar. In 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>The king returns again, what about 2023? In 2022, among the major asset categories,<b>Except for oil and gas, which fluctuated greatly due to severe supply shocks, the US Dollar Index's performance was strong and stable</b>--2022 will once again be a big year for the US dollar (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea0f835d229fc591bae5944c9e77ce3\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Due to high inflation and the Fed's aggressive tightening pace,<b>The market tends to compare the 2020s to the 1970s and early 1980s, but the performance of the US Dollar Index in the two periods is very different</b>(Figure 2), the former dollar fell more and rose less, and the latter period witnessed the largest bull market of the dollar after the war. 2023 may usher in a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the same scenario also appeared in 1974 and 1982, so who will 2023 be more like? What are the major categories of asset allocation meaning behind it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7143e1745f4a843552b663861968155c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combining historical and fundamental analysis,<b>We believe that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in the second quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>This means that the peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme in 2023. From the perspective of major asset classes,<b>Government bonds and high-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, emerging market stocks, energy and industrial metals have the greatest resilience, and gold is also worth laying out in advance</b>； From the perspective of equity sector,<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumption, banking finance and industrial stocks are among the top earners. However, since the probability of a rapid shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is low, it is doubtful whether information technology can still lead the way.</b></p><p>The fundamentals of the U.S. dollar can be viewed from the two dimensions of the U.S. and non-U.S. economies: In the United States, the two topics that cannot be bypassed in 2023 are<b>US Recession and Fed Stopping rate hike</b>； On the non-American side, the focus is on<b>When will the recovery in Europe and China bottom out</b>。</p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade Recession? Judging from the recession experience since 1970, the US dollar has a relatively obvious recession hedging pattern.<b>Generally speaking, the the US Dollar Index bottomed out about 2.5 months before the recession started, and then entered an appreciation mode due to rising risk aversion. It peaked and fell back 2 to 5 months after the recession started.</b>This depends on the speed and strength of the Fed's pivot and the economic resilience of non-US economies (if major non-US economies recover faster, the faster the dollar will fall) (see Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec03737986009e84ee123b84973b762\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that<b>The recession brought about by the crisis of the United States' own financial system will change the safe-haven model of the US dollar.</b>Typical examples are the recession brought about by the U.S. savings and loan crisis in 1989 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007. The turmoil of the U.S. financial system will directly affect the security of the U.S. dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the the US Dollar Index before the recession breaks out. As the financial system recovers and The recession spreads to non-U.S. economies, the U.S. dollar will become a global safe-haven asset.<b>However, it is unlikely that this scenario will happen in 2023.</b></p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade the Fed's rate hike Pivot? There is still great uncertainty in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2023, but the suspension of rate hike in the middle of the year is a high probability event. Looking back at the history since 1974, as shown in Figure 3,<b>On average, the the US Dollar Index maintained appreciation as a whole before the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve, and entered a shock after the end of the rate hike (down about 1.2% within one year).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9b5cd511fa12bf6d9dbf909afee057\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The 2023 situation is likely to be somewhere between the 1974 and 1981 scenarios. Also faced with the choice of high inflation and recession, the U.S. government chose to protect the economy in 1974:<b>Sharp interest rate cuts exceeding 800bp + fiscal spending becomes more aggressive</b>, the US dollar peaked before the last rate hike, and then gradually entered depreciation; At the beginning of the 1980s, he chose to control inflation.<b>Federal Funds rate once rose to 20% in 1981 + Reagan administration fiscal reform (government spending cuts + tax cuts)</b>, the dollar reached a periodic top after the last rate hike, but has since continued to rise in the shadow of the global economic recession and emerging market crisis (Latin American debt crisis).</p><p>The trend of the US dollar from 2022 to 2023 will be between the above two scenarios.<b>It is likely to present a bimodal structure, with the first peak already appearing at the end of September 2022</b>(Before the last rate hike, this one was similar to 1974)<b>。</b>From a policy point of view, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2023 will be more balanced than in 1974 and 1980s. Faced with the risks of inflation and recession, it may choose to suspend rate hike instead of substantial rate hike or interest rate cuts. At the same time, next year, the U.S. fiscal policy will expand spending. Large constraints; From the perspective of recession-related risks, the main impact is concentrated near the recession and the early stage of the recession. Corresponding to the first half of 2023, the Federal Reserve's insistence (not easily turning to interest rate cuts) + the decline in commodity prices will cause the the US Dollar Index to rise again in the short term. Pressure on emerging market economies has risen sharply-<b>The second peak of the US Dollar Index may occur in the second quarter of 2023 (when the Federal Reserve may also suspend rate hike).</b></p><p>After the second peak, if the Fed doesn't turn further to cutting interest rates, will there be no room for the dollar to fall? No, we mentioned in previous reports that in addition to the economy and policies of the United States itself, the US dollar should also pay attention to the situation of major non-US economies, especially Europe and China-<b>Marginal improvement in Europe and China together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the dollar</b>From the historical average, this depreciation can generally reach 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d86d259b4433592bf5a6f887ef82db9\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The euro zone economy may improve significantly in the third quarter of next year.</b>After the triple impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high inflation and rapid tightening of monetary policy in 2022, the euro zone economy is likely to enter a recession at the end of 2022 and early 2023. The negative impact of these three factors next year will be marginally weakened, and the latter two will further improve, which will create conditions for the recovery of the European economy in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9891fb45c2cc91d51a55f3491981fd\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme next year. What assets should we pay attention to? What we mean by the peak of the dollar here is<b>The trend of the US Dollar Index falls back after its second surge</b>, which often leads to overall changes in market investment logic and style.</p><p>After the peak of the US dollar, which asset class has the highest victory and the greatest resilience? From historical experience, government bonds (including emerging market sovereign bonds) and investment-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, but in terms of flexibility<b>Emerging market stocks, crude oil and industrial metals (such as copper) are more attractive. In addition, the space for gold may be larger than statistically counted in Figure 6</b>, because of the bonus of the risk of economic recession, the gold market will start earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27051850346e235d3fdf9392f327c20b\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After the dollar peaks, which sector will benefit the most? From the perspective of global stock markets, the sectors with the highest returns after the peak of the US dollar are<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumer, banking finance and industrial stocks.</b>However, there is a certain degree of uncertainty about whether the information technology sector can continue to lead. A large part of its excess returns comes from the fact that monetary policy has often quickly turned to easing when facing economic headwinds since the financial crisis. This scene may be difficult to appear in 2023. In addition to policy shifts, other sectors also have important logic for marginal economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a4be050e56bce9915ae87445169015a\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: External demand has fallen due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic has exceeded market expectations. Overseas economies have entered recession ahead of schedule, and the sharp negative growth of my country's exports may come ahead of schedule. The epidemic has repeated, and strict prevention and control is difficult to lift in the short term and lasts for a long time, which has seriously dragged down the Chinese economy and caused the US dollar to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dollar: Will 2023 Be More Like 1974 or 1981?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDollar: Will 2023 Be More Like 1974 or 1981?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Soochow Securities believes that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in 2023. second quarter of the year. The marginal improvement of the European and Chinese economies together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the US dollar. In 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>The king returns again, what about 2023? In 2022, among the major asset categories,<b>Except for oil and gas, which fluctuated greatly due to severe supply shocks, the US Dollar Index's performance was strong and stable</b>--2022 will once again be a big year for the US dollar (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea0f835d229fc591bae5944c9e77ce3\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Due to high inflation and the Fed's aggressive tightening pace,<b>The market tends to compare the 2020s to the 1970s and early 1980s, but the performance of the US Dollar Index in the two periods is very different</b>(Figure 2), the former dollar fell more and rose less, and the latter period witnessed the largest bull market of the dollar after the war. 2023 may usher in a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the same scenario also appeared in 1974 and 1982, so who will 2023 be more like? What are the major categories of asset allocation meaning behind it?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7143e1745f4a843552b663861968155c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combining historical and fundamental analysis,<b>We believe that the shape and rhythm of this round of the US dollar will be between 1974 and 1981, showing a double-peak structure. The first high point has appeared at the end of September 2022, and the second high point may appear in the second quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>This means that the peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme in 2023. From the perspective of major asset classes,<b>Government bonds and high-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, emerging market stocks, energy and industrial metals have the greatest resilience, and gold is also worth laying out in advance</b>； From the perspective of equity sector,<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumption, banking finance and industrial stocks are among the top earners. However, since the probability of a rapid shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is low, it is doubtful whether information technology can still lead the way.</b></p><p>The fundamentals of the U.S. dollar can be viewed from the two dimensions of the U.S. and non-U.S. economies: In the United States, the two topics that cannot be bypassed in 2023 are<b>US Recession and Fed Stopping rate hike</b>； On the non-American side, the focus is on<b>When will the recovery in Europe and China bottom out</b>。</p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade Recession? Judging from the recession experience since 1970, the US dollar has a relatively obvious recession hedging pattern.<b>Generally speaking, the the US Dollar Index bottomed out about 2.5 months before the recession started, and then entered an appreciation mode due to rising risk aversion. It peaked and fell back 2 to 5 months after the recession started.</b>This depends on the speed and strength of the Fed's pivot and the economic resilience of non-US economies (if major non-US economies recover faster, the faster the dollar will fall) (see Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec03737986009e84ee123b84973b762\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that<b>The recession brought about by the crisis of the United States' own financial system will change the safe-haven model of the US dollar.</b>Typical examples are the recession brought about by the U.S. savings and loan crisis in 1989 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007. The turmoil of the U.S. financial system will directly affect the security of the U.S. dollar, which will lead to the depreciation of the the US Dollar Index before the recession breaks out. As the financial system recovers and The recession spreads to non-U.S. economies, the U.S. dollar will become a global safe-haven asset.<b>However, it is unlikely that this scenario will happen in 2023.</b></p><p>How Does the Dollar Trade the Fed's rate hike Pivot? There is still great uncertainty in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2023, but the suspension of rate hike in the middle of the year is a high probability event. Looking back at the history since 1974, as shown in Figure 3,<b>On average, the the US Dollar Index maintained appreciation as a whole before the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve, and entered a shock after the end of the rate hike (down about 1.2% within one year).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9b5cd511fa12bf6d9dbf909afee057\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The 2023 situation is likely to be somewhere between the 1974 and 1981 scenarios. Also faced with the choice of high inflation and recession, the U.S. government chose to protect the economy in 1974:<b>Sharp interest rate cuts exceeding 800bp + fiscal spending becomes more aggressive</b>, the US dollar peaked before the last rate hike, and then gradually entered depreciation; At the beginning of the 1980s, he chose to control inflation.<b>Federal Funds rate once rose to 20% in 1981 + Reagan administration fiscal reform (government spending cuts + tax cuts)</b>, the dollar reached a periodic top after the last rate hike, but has since continued to rise in the shadow of the global economic recession and emerging market crisis (Latin American debt crisis).</p><p>The trend of the US dollar from 2022 to 2023 will be between the above two scenarios.<b>It is likely to present a bimodal structure, with the first peak already appearing at the end of September 2022</b>(Before the last rate hike, this one was similar to 1974)<b>。</b>From a policy point of view, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2023 will be more balanced than in 1974 and 1980s. Faced with the risks of inflation and recession, it may choose to suspend rate hike instead of substantial rate hike or interest rate cuts. At the same time, next year, the U.S. fiscal policy will expand spending. Large constraints; From the perspective of recession-related risks, the main impact is concentrated near the recession and the early stage of the recession. Corresponding to the first half of 2023, the Federal Reserve's insistence (not easily turning to interest rate cuts) + the decline in commodity prices will cause the the US Dollar Index to rise again in the short term. Pressure on emerging market economies has risen sharply-<b>The second peak of the US Dollar Index may occur in the second quarter of 2023 (when the Federal Reserve may also suspend rate hike).</b></p><p>After the second peak, if the Fed doesn't turn further to cutting interest rates, will there be no room for the dollar to fall? No, we mentioned in previous reports that in addition to the economy and policies of the United States itself, the US dollar should also pay attention to the situation of major non-US economies, especially Europe and China-<b>Marginal improvement in Europe and China together will be an important driver of the depreciation of the dollar</b>From the historical average, this depreciation can generally reach 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d86d259b4433592bf5a6f887ef82db9\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The euro zone economy may improve significantly in the third quarter of next year.</b>After the triple impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high inflation and rapid tightening of monetary policy in 2022, the euro zone economy is likely to enter a recession at the end of 2022 and early 2023. The negative impact of these three factors next year will be marginally weakened, and the latter two will further improve, which will create conditions for the recovery of the European economy in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9891fb45c2cc91d51a55f3491981fd\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The peak of the US dollar will be an important trading theme next year. What assets should we pay attention to? What we mean by the peak of the dollar here is<b>The trend of the US Dollar Index falls back after its second surge</b>, which often leads to overall changes in market investment logic and style.</p><p>After the peak of the US dollar, which asset class has the highest victory and the greatest resilience? From historical experience, government bonds (including emerging market sovereign bonds) and investment-grade bonds have the highest winning rate, but in terms of flexibility<b>Emerging market stocks, crude oil and industrial metals (such as copper) are more attractive. In addition, the space for gold may be larger than statistically counted in Figure 6</b>, because of the bonus of the risk of economic recession, the gold market will start earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27051850346e235d3fdf9392f327c20b\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After the dollar peaks, which sector will benefit the most? From the perspective of global stock markets, the sectors with the highest returns after the peak of the US dollar are<b>Information technology, raw materials, optional consumer, banking finance and industrial stocks.</b>However, there is a certain degree of uncertainty about whether the information technology sector can continue to lead. A large part of its excess returns comes from the fact that monetary policy has often quickly turned to easing when facing economic headwinds since the financial crisis. This scene may be difficult to appear in 2023. In addition to policy shifts, other sectors also have important logic for marginal economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a4be050e56bce9915ae87445169015a\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: External demand has fallen due to the tightening of overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic has exceeded market expectations. Overseas economies have entered recession ahead of schedule, and the sharp negative growth of my country's exports may come ahead of schedule. The epidemic has repeated, and strict prevention and control is difficult to lift in the short term and lasts for a long time, which has seriously dragged down the Chinese economy and caused the US dollar to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/565763\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a477963a13237335d75caf26836fbe2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/565763","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2287903687","content_text":"东吴证券认为本轮美元的形态和节奏会介于1974和1981年之间、呈现双峰结构，第一个高点在2022年9月底已经出现，而第二个高点可能会出现在2023年第二季度。欧洲和中国经济一起边际改善将会是美元贬值的重要推手。2022年，美元指数再次王者归来，2023年呢？2022年在大类资产中，除了受到严重供给冲击而大幅波动的油气外，美元指数的表现强而且稳——2022年再次成为美元大年（图1）。由于高通胀和美联储激进的紧缩步伐，市场往往会把2020s比作1970s和1980s初，但是两个时期美元指数的表现大相径庭（图2），前者美元跌多涨少，后一段时间则见证了战后美元最大的牛市。2023年可能迎来美联储货币政策的转向，而同样的场景也在1974年和1982年出现，那么2023年会更像谁？背后有怎样的大类资产配置含义？结合历史和基本面的分析，我们认为本轮美元的形态和节奏会介于1974和1981年之间、呈现双峰结构，第一个高点在2022年9月底已经出现，而第二个高点可能会出现在2023年第二季度。这意味着美元见顶会是2023年重要的交易主题，从大类资产配上看，政府债券和高等级债券的胜率最高，新兴市场股市、能源和工业金属的弹性最大，此外黄金也值得提前布局；从权益板块上看，信息技术、原材料、非必选消费、银行金融和工业股收益居前，不过由于美联储货币政策迅速转向的概率不大，信息技术是否还能领跑存疑。美元的基本面可以从美国和非美经济体两个维度来看：美国方面，2023年绕不过去的两个话题是美国衰退和美联储停止加息；非美方面，重点关注的则是欧洲和中国的复苏何时见底复苏。美元如何交易衰退？从1970年以来的衰退经历来看，美元具有较为明显的衰退避险模式，一般而言衰退开始前约2.5个月美元指数触底，而后由于避险情绪升温进入升值模式，衰退开启后2至5个月触顶回落，这取决于美联储转向的速度、力度以及非美经济体的经济韧性（如果主要非美经济体复苏越快，美元回落也越快）（如表1）。值得注意的是，美国自身金融体系爆发危机带来的衰退会使得美元的避险模式改变。典型的是1989年美国储贷危机和2007年次贷危机带来的衰退，美国金融体系的动荡会直接影响美元的安全性，这会导致在衰退爆发前美元指数贬值，而随着金融体系恢复以及衰退向非美经济体扩散，美元又会成为全球的避险资产。不过这一场景在2023年发生的概率不大。美元如何交易美联储加息的转向？市场对于2023年美联储是否会降息尚存在较大的不确定性，但是年中暂停加息是大概率事件。回顾1974年以来的历史，如图3所示，从平均水平来看，美联储最后一次加息前美元指数整体保持升值，加息结束后进入震荡（1年内约跌1.2%）。2023年的情况可能介于1974年和1981年两种情形之间。同样面对高通胀和衰退的抉择，1974年美国政府选择保经济：大幅降息超过800bp+财政支出更加积极，美元在最后一次加息前就已经见顶，随后逐步进入贬值；1980s初则选择了控通胀，联邦基金利率在1981年一度上涨至20%+里根政府财政改革（削减政府支出+减税），美元在最后一次加息后出现阶段性顶部，不过此后在全球经济衰退和新兴市场危机（拉美债务危机）的阴影下继续走高。2022年至2023年的美元走势会介于以上两种情形之间，很可能呈现双峰结构，第一峰在2022年9月底已经出现（在最后一次加息前，这个和1974年类似）。从政策上看，2023年美联储的货币政策较1974年和1980s会更加均衡，面对通胀和衰退的风险可能会选择暂停加息，而非大幅加息或者降息，同时明年美国财政政策扩大支出面临较大的约束；从衰退相关的风险来看，主要的冲击集中在临近衰退和衰退前期，对应的是2023年上半年，美联储的坚持（不轻易转向降息）+商品价格下滑，会使得短期内美元指数再次上冲、新兴市场经济体压力骤升——美元指数的第二峰可能出现在2023年第二季度（彼时美联储也可能暂停加息）。第二峰之后，如果美联储不进一步转向降息，美元是不是就没有下跌空间了？并不是，我们在之前的报告中曾经提及，美元除了要看美国自身的经济和政策外，还要注意主要非美经济体的情况，尤其是欧洲和中国——欧洲和中国经济一起边际改善将会是美元贬值的重要推手，从历史均值测算，这个贬值幅度一般能达6%。欧元区经济可能在明年第三季度出现比较明显的改善。在经过2022年俄乌冲突、高通胀和货币政策急速收紧的三重冲击后，欧元区经济大概率在2022年底和2023年初进入衰退状态，明年这三大因素的负面影响都会边际减弱、后两者则进一步改善，这会为下半年欧洲经济的复苏创造条件。美元见顶会是明年重要的交易主题，应该关注什么资产？我们在这说的美元见顶指的是美元指数第二次冲高后趋势性回落，这往往会导致市场投资逻辑和风格整体性改变。美元见顶后，哪个大类资产胜利最高、弹性最大？从历史经验看，政府债券（含新兴市场主权债）和投资级债券胜率最高，但是弹性上新兴市场股市、原油和工业金属（例如铜）更加具有吸引力。此外，黄金的空间可能比图6统计的更大，因为有经济衰退风险的加成，黄金的行情会启动得更早。美元见顶之后，哪个板块最受益？从全球股市来看，美元见顶之后收益居前的板块是信息技术、原材料、非必选消费、银行金融和工业股。不过信息技术板块能否继续领跑存在一定的不确定性，其超额收益背后有很大一部分来自于金融危机以来货币政策在面临经济逆风时往往会快速转向宽松，这一幕可能在2023年难以出现，而其他板块在政策转向之外，还有经济边际复苏的重要逻辑。风险提示：海外货币政策收紧下外需回落，国内疫情扩散超市场预期。海外经济提前进入衰退，我国出口大幅负增长可能提前到来。疫情反复，严格防控短期难以解除、持续时间拉长，严重拖累中国经济、导致美元冲高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962379639,"gmtCreate":1669730039621,"gmtModify":1676538231155,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962379639","repostId":"2287576021","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2287576021","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669715606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287576021?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 17:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Unable to invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo stock instead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287576021","media":"投资界","summary":"“最近VC朋友聊得最多的话题，大概就是Temu了。”聊到Temu——一个拼多多刚上线的出海项目，孟岩的话匣子打开了。令人惊讶的是，拼多多把 Temu 摆在首要位置。他透露，其实不少同行都在打听进入Temu的机会，不过目前拼多多尚未开放融资机会。”Temu”，一个拼多多自创的新词，母公司给予了它拿下海外市场的愿景。今年9月1日，Temu正式面世，首站进军北美。于是，有趣的一幕发生了：投不进Temu，VC直接加仓了拼多多的股票。","content":"<p><html><body><figure><img h=\"234\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/784/w550h234/20221129/e639-b0e59e9c237d54263e536d87b829f0e9.jpg\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure></p><p>\"Copy from China\".</p><p>Author I Yang Wenjing</p><p>\"Recently, the topic that VC friends talk about the most is probably Temu.\" Meng Yan said.</p><p>She once worked for a very leading VC institution in China, and is currently in charge of a new fund focusing on consumer technology. Going to sea is one of the key directions that Meng Yan and his team focus on. I stayed in Shenzhen for a week on this business trip and talked intensively about overseas projects.</p><p>Talking about Temu-a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Just launched the overseas project, Meng Yan's chatterbox opened. In September this year, Temu quietly went online in North America. Under the leadership of Huang Zheng's junior sister Abu, it swept all the way, and quickly topped the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore. Last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its latest financial report, with a single-quarter net profit exceeding 12 billion yuan. Surprisingly, Pinduoduo put Temu at the forefront.</p><p>\"This kind of project is exactly what we want to invest in.\" Similar to Meng Yan, Li Li has been looking at the sea circuit recently and has been following Temu for some time. He revealed that in fact, many peers are inquiring about the opportunity to enter Temu, but Pinduoduo has not yet opened up financing opportunities.</p><p>Li Li lamented, \"The popularity of Temu makes us feel more deeply the broad prospects of going overseas.\"</p><p><strong>Projects that VC cannot invest in</strong></p><p>A few days ago, Meng Yan's team just finished the research of several major Internet companies and came to a preliminary conclusion: Temu can definitely do it.</p><p>This starts with the team's research on Pinduoduo. Since the beginning of this year, the valuations of the primary and secondary markets have been upside down. Although the consumption track has cooled down, the valuations of many brands are still inflated. Compared with the valuation of start-up companies, which often reach billions, Meng Yan began to look for some cheap opportunities in the secondary market, so Pinduoduo entered the team's field of vision.</p><p>After analyzing several major Internet companies, Meng Yan found that Ali's market value has been falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>As the broader market rises and falls, it is relatively stable, and only Pinduoduo is still growing against the trend.</p><p>Just as last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its third quarter 2022 financial report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 10.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 546%. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that Pinduoduo has maintained positive profit growth.</p><p><figure><img h=\"262\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/12/w550h262/20221129/0aa9-31ac2e467598b721578dcdc04c904caa.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Pinduoduo's third quarter financial report)</h2></figure>As for the logic behind it, Meng Yan made some analysis: During the market downturn, the platform focusing on cost performance is stronger. \"In layman's terms, the less money everyone has, the more stable Pinduoduo will be\". When the European and American economies were in downturn, Pinduoduo launched the overseas project Temu, which was equivalent to \"copying\" the operating model of the parent company, and it was even more timely.</p><p>\"Temu\", a new word created by Pinduoduo, has been given by the parent company the vision of winning overseas markets. The name is clever. On the official download interface of Temu, the new vocabulary is accompanied by an explanation: \"Team Up, Price Down\", which is roughly translated into: \"Buy in a group, it is cheaper\". A Pinduoduo style arises spontaneously.</p><p><figure><img h=\"349\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/99/w550h349/20221129/4343-a345ee4be43ad42a87d3b0f05ffcb334.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>On September 1 this year, Temu was officially launched, and its first stop was in North America. Although due to foreign legal risks, \"chop a knife\" failed to go out to sea together, Temu still offered the most familiar gameplay: pull a user and reward 20 US dollars. It can be said that the \"viral spread\" of the main business is perfectly played.</p><p>Coupled with the fact that commodity prices are generally lower than peers, and the categories also meet the daily shopping needs of most North American people, Temu is on fire. In the eyes of many investors, Temu has huge growth potential-the piece of SHEIN,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The land divided by the wolves ushered in a showstopper.</p><p>\"When the domestic business entered a more comfortable area, Pinduoduo was able to withdraw and concentrate all its key forces to impact overseas markets.\" Meng Yan revealed that as far as he knows, Huang Zheng, Abu and other Pinduoduo veteran figures are in charge in person, which is enough to show that they attach great importance to the whole new project.</p><p>\"Now VC friends with US dollar background pay special attention to Temu.\" Once upon a time, Pinduoduo brought rich returns to many domestic VC/PE institutions, directly enabling a group of young investors to realize the myth of wealth creation. Now, the overseas version of \"Pinduoduo\" is here, and the story is even more attractive.</p><p>Meng Yan didn't hide it. Previously, the team established contact with Temu through various channels to communicate financing needs. However, after some contact, I learned that although Temu has always needed to burn money in the early stage, Pinduoduo has sufficient cash flow and has no plans to spin off Temu. This business does not plan to raise funds at present, and investors in the primary market can't get it if they want to invest. share. \"If financing is open, this must be a crowded project\".</p><p>The VC circle is eyeing up, and everyone doesn't want to miss this heavyweight project.</p><p>So, an interesting scene happened: unable to invest in Temu, VC directly increased its position in Pinduoduo's stock.</p><p>Junior Sister Huang Zheng is at the helm, Temu kills all sides</p><p><strong>Copy a Pinduoduo in America</strong></p><p>Who exactly is running the Temu project?</p><p>The name Abramovich surfaced. She is a heavyweight existence in Pinduoduo. Huang Zheng's fellow junior sister, formerly named Gu Pingping, has been following Huang Zheng since the beginning of his business. Over the years, Abramovich has rarely appeared in the public eye, but she is the helm of Duoduomaicai, and she is also in charge of the \"game ordering\" mode that made Pinduoduo an instant hit.</p><p>A former Pinduoduo employee revealed, \"Abramovich is equivalent to an internal CEO, and her administration, technology and operation are all in charge.\"</p><p><div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div>Abramovich's shot, Temu's importance is self-evident. In order to fight his way out in North America, Pinduoduo's investment in Temu is no less than Duoduomaicai. It is reported that Pinduoduo had planned to invest 1 billion in Temu in the first month, trying to establish a \"Team up, Price down\" brand image in the minds of users.</p><p>More directly, Pinduoduo's investor relations webpage launched a new domain name pddholdings.com (\"Pinduoduo Holdings\"), and changed the company introduction to, \"a multinational business group that owns and operates a series of businesses, including Temu, a North American consumer e-commerce market, and Pinduoduo, a leading social commerce platform\". In this introduction, Temu even takes precedence over the main business \"Pinduoduo\" in word order.</p><p><figure><img h=\"268\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/18/w550h268/20221129/1618-d2137ef68b19853b905bb022f413e5c0.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Introduction to Pinduoduo Investor Relations Network)</h2></figure>On the other side of the ocean, Temu lived up to expectations. With the \"fission-style new recruitment\", less than a month after its launch, Temu's single-day download volume surpassed Amazon and SHEIN, topping the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore.</p><p>Grabbing employees, suppliers, and markets, anxiety spreads to competitors. Someone on the social platform revealed that Temu hired people at a salary 60% higher than SHEIN's. Considering that it was inconvenient for employees who changed jobs to move, Temu directly moved its office to the subway station two stops away from SHEIN.</p><p>In addition to grabbing people with high salaries, Temu also captures suppliers with huge single dividends. Some sellers said, \"I have been working in Temu for three months, and I have stable 1,000 orders a day.\" According to rumors, SHEIN began to ask merchants to \"choose one of the two\", and even was exposed that \"once employees change jobs to Temu, they will never be hired\", but this information has not yet been confirmed.</p><p>On the consumer side, Temu is seizing the market at low prices. The price of summer women's clothing on the platform is mostly below $20, the price of necklaces and rings is in the range of $5-$10, and some small items are even as low as less than $1. A practitioner who exports on the Amazon platform complained that the retail price of Temu is cheaper than their purchase price.</p><p><figure><img h=\"491\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/241/w550h491/20221129/2b5d-e32cc133d891259079fd9bfdcb0a6c41.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>The secondary market is also studying Temu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">Dongxing Securities</a>According to previous analysis, Temu adopts a quasi-self-operated model, in which the seller is responsible for the supply of goods, the platform has the pricing power of products, and requires the seller to submit the reserve price of products. Relying on the supply chain foundation laid by its main business in China, Temu was able to keep prices to the lowest, which once caused netizens to exclaim: \"Directly rectify the US e-commerce industry!\"</p><p>At present, some media have released a set of data: Temu's average daily GMV has exceeded US $1.5 million (about 10 million yuan), the number of settled merchants is nearly 30,000, and the SKUs are as high as 300,000-400,000, covering 24 first-level categories. If the data is true, then Temu's monthly GMV has exceeded 300 million yuan. That is to say, in less than two months, Temu has surpassed the annual volume of 90% of cross-border e-commerce players.</p><p>A cross-border platform that has only been online for two months has developed so rapidly. According to previous assumptions, Temu's GMV target is US $300-500 million before the end of the year, and it will reach a target of US $3 billion in the next year, which is equivalent to 1/10 of SHEIN's current volume.</p><p>\"Temu proves such a logic: even in developed countries, the rich still only account for a small part, and there are also sinking markets abroad. Pinduoduo's logic in China may still apply.\" After reading Temu's data, a VC investor in Shanghai bluntly said.</p><p>\"Now is the best time to enter overseas markets.\" After analyzing Temu, Meng Yan said frankly, \"From the perspective of the general environment, during the economic downturn, people's demand for'cost performance 'is even greater. Coupled with the inflation in the United States in the past two years, objectively It gives platforms like Temu a more relaxed room to rise.\"</p><p><strong>When Internet giants collectively sit in charge</strong></p><p><strong>The era of going overseas is coming</strong></p><p>\"In addition to Huang Zheng, Ali Jiang Fan, ByteDance Zhang Yiming, and JD.com Liu Qiangdong have all gone overseas to look for opportunities.\" A VC close to a major Internet company lamented that almost everyone firmly believes that the time has come for China to rise to more global Internet platforms.</p><p>As Meng Yan analyzed, the domestic business of several major Internet companies is growing steadily. The outcome of community group buying that had been in constant melee before has been decided. Domestic competition can no longer \"roll\" to new heights, but foreign countries are still a blue ocean, full of various possibilities. Players who have experienced hundreds of battles have started the journey of \"Copy from China\".</p><p>Last year, Jiang Fan, the former president of Taobao and Tmall, was sent to Southeast Asia to be responsible for overseas business including Lazada. Prior to this, Lazada has changed its CEO many times, but no general has been in charge yet. In Ali's organizational structure adjustment and Zhang Yong's internal letter, the overseas business represented by Jiang Fan was mentioned for the first time as comparable to retail. It is understood that Jiang Fan may go to Europe next.</p><p>On the ByteDance side, Meng Yan revealed, \"This year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>GMV should be able to reach 2 trillion, and the ceiling is visible to the naked eye. Several core executives, including Zhang Yiming, are actively exploring overseas markets. \" Previously, Byte's overseas business TikTok had set a goal: the number of global daily active users will exceed 1.05 billion by the end of 2022. In addition, Byte also recently launched lfYooou, a cross-border independent station specializing in selling women's clothing.</p><p>\"But TikTok is still the focus at present,\" the above-mentioned investor revealed. \"They feel that the Southeast Asian market is small, and the next part of the focus is also live broadcast e-commerce in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>Nowadays, the overseas war has started, and the heroes are competing for the deer. Wu Bin, a major Internet company located in Shanghai, mentioned, \"Recently, the feeling has become stronger and stronger. Chinese companies will go overseas more and more in the near future. Platforms such as TikTok, SHEIN, and Temu have begun to challenge foreign giants. system built.\"</p><p>In fact, this wave of going overseas did not appear overnight. China's new economy has experienced more than 20 years of development, forming a unique Internet model. \"These models can be moved overseas, such as e-commerce, take-out, fresh food and other projects that have been successful in China.\" Meng Yan introduced.</p><p>Drawing lessons from China's well-developed Internet entrepreneurial model, coupled with local localization innovation, this is \"Copy from China\", and these models will become new increments overseas and create a new industrial system, which has also attracted the attention of a group of domestic VCs.</p><p>\"Recently, we have been tracking their dynamics, and we often chat with these giants, looking for new companies that will grow under their ecosystem.\" Meng Yan said that now that new platforms such as TikTok and Temu are pouring out, there will be room to grow new brands, which is the same logic as Douyin's birth of a number of new brands in China.</p><p>In addition, a leading domestic VC institution has also set up a dedicated investment team, focusing on the \"Copy from China\" project. Most mainstream investment institutions such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse, Gaorong Capital, IDG Capital, and GGV Capital have also regarded overseas and globalization as important directions for institutional development in recent years.</p><p>This is a golden field for Chinese VCs-after all, after experiencing the era of Chinese model innovation, domestic investors can explore projects earlier, and they can also predict the development space and potential risks of enterprises in advance. The myth of venture capital return of the past two decades may be taking root in a foreign country.</p><p>(Meng Yan, Li Li and Wu Bin are pseudonyms in the text)</p><p><div></div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unable to invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo stock instead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnable to invest in Temu, VC bought Pinduoduo stock instead\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-29 17:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><figure><img h=\"234\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/784/w550h234/20221129/e639-b0e59e9c237d54263e536d87b829f0e9.jpg\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure></p><p>\"Copy from China\".</p><p>Author I Yang Wenjing</p><p>\"Recently, the topic that VC friends talk about the most is probably Temu.\" Meng Yan said.</p><p>She once worked for a very leading VC institution in China, and is currently in charge of a new fund focusing on consumer technology. Going to sea is one of the key directions that Meng Yan and his team focus on. I stayed in Shenzhen for a week on this business trip and talked intensively about overseas projects.</p><p>Talking about Temu-a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Just launched the overseas project, Meng Yan's chatterbox opened. In September this year, Temu quietly went online in North America. Under the leadership of Huang Zheng's junior sister Abu, it swept all the way, and quickly topped the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore. Last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its latest financial report, with a single-quarter net profit exceeding 12 billion yuan. Surprisingly, Pinduoduo put Temu at the forefront.</p><p>\"This kind of project is exactly what we want to invest in.\" Similar to Meng Yan, Li Li has been looking at the sea circuit recently and has been following Temu for some time. He revealed that in fact, many peers are inquiring about the opportunity to enter Temu, but Pinduoduo has not yet opened up financing opportunities.</p><p>Li Li lamented, \"The popularity of Temu makes us feel more deeply the broad prospects of going overseas.\"</p><p><strong>Projects that VC cannot invest in</strong></p><p>A few days ago, Meng Yan's team just finished the research of several major Internet companies and came to a preliminary conclusion: Temu can definitely do it.</p><p>This starts with the team's research on Pinduoduo. Since the beginning of this year, the valuations of the primary and secondary markets have been upside down. Although the consumption track has cooled down, the valuations of many brands are still inflated. Compared with the valuation of start-up companies, which often reach billions, Meng Yan began to look for some cheap opportunities in the secondary market, so Pinduoduo entered the team's field of vision.</p><p>After analyzing several major Internet companies, Meng Yan found that Ali's market value has been falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>As the broader market rises and falls, it is relatively stable, and only Pinduoduo is still growing against the trend.</p><p>Just as last night (November 28), Pinduoduo released its third quarter 2022 financial report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 10.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 546%. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that Pinduoduo has maintained positive profit growth.</p><p><figure><img h=\"262\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/12/w550h262/20221129/0aa9-31ac2e467598b721578dcdc04c904caa.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Pinduoduo's third quarter financial report)</h2></figure>As for the logic behind it, Meng Yan made some analysis: During the market downturn, the platform focusing on cost performance is stronger. \"In layman's terms, the less money everyone has, the more stable Pinduoduo will be\". When the European and American economies were in downturn, Pinduoduo launched the overseas project Temu, which was equivalent to \"copying\" the operating model of the parent company, and it was even more timely.</p><p>\"Temu\", a new word created by Pinduoduo, has been given by the parent company the vision of winning overseas markets. The name is clever. On the official download interface of Temu, the new vocabulary is accompanied by an explanation: \"Team Up, Price Down\", which is roughly translated into: \"Buy in a group, it is cheaper\". A Pinduoduo style arises spontaneously.</p><p><figure><img h=\"349\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/99/w550h349/20221129/4343-a345ee4be43ad42a87d3b0f05ffcb334.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>On September 1 this year, Temu was officially launched, and its first stop was in North America. Although due to foreign legal risks, \"chop a knife\" failed to go out to sea together, Temu still offered the most familiar gameplay: pull a user and reward 20 US dollars. It can be said that the \"viral spread\" of the main business is perfectly played.</p><p>Coupled with the fact that commodity prices are generally lower than peers, and the categories also meet the daily shopping needs of most North American people, Temu is on fire. In the eyes of many investors, Temu has huge growth potential-the piece of SHEIN,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The land divided by the wolves ushered in a showstopper.</p><p>\"When the domestic business entered a more comfortable area, Pinduoduo was able to withdraw and concentrate all its key forces to impact overseas markets.\" Meng Yan revealed that as far as he knows, Huang Zheng, Abu and other Pinduoduo veteran figures are in charge in person, which is enough to show that they attach great importance to the whole new project.</p><p>\"Now VC friends with US dollar background pay special attention to Temu.\" Once upon a time, Pinduoduo brought rich returns to many domestic VC/PE institutions, directly enabling a group of young investors to realize the myth of wealth creation. Now, the overseas version of \"Pinduoduo\" is here, and the story is even more attractive.</p><p>Meng Yan didn't hide it. Previously, the team established contact with Temu through various channels to communicate financing needs. However, after some contact, I learned that although Temu has always needed to burn money in the early stage, Pinduoduo has sufficient cash flow and has no plans to spin off Temu. This business does not plan to raise funds at present, and investors in the primary market can't get it if they want to invest. share. \"If financing is open, this must be a crowded project\".</p><p>The VC circle is eyeing up, and everyone doesn't want to miss this heavyweight project.</p><p>So, an interesting scene happened: unable to invest in Temu, VC directly increased its position in Pinduoduo's stock.</p><p>Junior Sister Huang Zheng is at the helm, Temu kills all sides</p><p><strong>Copy a Pinduoduo in America</strong></p><p>Who exactly is running the Temu project?</p><p>The name Abramovich surfaced. She is a heavyweight existence in Pinduoduo. Huang Zheng's fellow junior sister, formerly named Gu Pingping, has been following Huang Zheng since the beginning of his business. Over the years, Abramovich has rarely appeared in the public eye, but she is the helm of Duoduomaicai, and she is also in charge of the \"game ordering\" mode that made Pinduoduo an instant hit.</p><p>A former Pinduoduo employee revealed, \"Abramovich is equivalent to an internal CEO, and her administration, technology and operation are all in charge.\"</p><p><div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div>Abramovich's shot, Temu's importance is self-evident. In order to fight his way out in North America, Pinduoduo's investment in Temu is no less than Duoduomaicai. It is reported that Pinduoduo had planned to invest 1 billion in Temu in the first month, trying to establish a \"Team up, Price down\" brand image in the minds of users.</p><p>More directly, Pinduoduo's investor relations webpage launched a new domain name pddholdings.com (\"Pinduoduo Holdings\"), and changed the company introduction to, \"a multinational business group that owns and operates a series of businesses, including Temu, a North American consumer e-commerce market, and Pinduoduo, a leading social commerce platform\". In this introduction, Temu even takes precedence over the main business \"Pinduoduo\" in word order.</p><p><figure><img h=\"268\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/18/w550h268/20221129/1618-d2137ef68b19853b905bb022f413e5c0.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2>(Introduction to Pinduoduo Investor Relations Network)</h2></figure>On the other side of the ocean, Temu lived up to expectations. With the \"fission-style new recruitment\", less than a month after its launch, Temu's single-day download volume surpassed Amazon and SHEIN, topping the list of free shopping applications in the US APPstore.</p><p>Grabbing employees, suppliers, and markets, anxiety spreads to competitors. Someone on the social platform revealed that Temu hired people at a salary 60% higher than SHEIN's. Considering that it was inconvenient for employees who changed jobs to move, Temu directly moved its office to the subway station two stops away from SHEIN.</p><p>In addition to grabbing people with high salaries, Temu also captures suppliers with huge single dividends. Some sellers said, \"I have been working in Temu for three months, and I have stable 1,000 orders a day.\" According to rumors, SHEIN began to ask merchants to \"choose one of the two\", and even was exposed that \"once employees change jobs to Temu, they will never be hired\", but this information has not yet been confirmed.</p><p>On the consumer side, Temu is seizing the market at low prices. The price of summer women's clothing on the platform is mostly below $20, the price of necklaces and rings is in the range of $5-$10, and some small items are even as low as less than $1. A practitioner who exports on the Amazon platform complained that the retail price of Temu is cheaper than their purchase price.</p><p><figure><img h=\"491\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/241/w550h491/20221129/2b5d-e32cc133d891259079fd9bfdcb0a6c41.png\" w=\"550\"/><h2></h2></figure>The secondary market is also studying Temu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">Dongxing Securities</a>According to previous analysis, Temu adopts a quasi-self-operated model, in which the seller is responsible for the supply of goods, the platform has the pricing power of products, and requires the seller to submit the reserve price of products. Relying on the supply chain foundation laid by its main business in China, Temu was able to keep prices to the lowest, which once caused netizens to exclaim: \"Directly rectify the US e-commerce industry!\"</p><p>At present, some media have released a set of data: Temu's average daily GMV has exceeded US $1.5 million (about 10 million yuan), the number of settled merchants is nearly 30,000, and the SKUs are as high as 300,000-400,000, covering 24 first-level categories. If the data is true, then Temu's monthly GMV has exceeded 300 million yuan. That is to say, in less than two months, Temu has surpassed the annual volume of 90% of cross-border e-commerce players.</p><p>A cross-border platform that has only been online for two months has developed so rapidly. According to previous assumptions, Temu's GMV target is US $300-500 million before the end of the year, and it will reach a target of US $3 billion in the next year, which is equivalent to 1/10 of SHEIN's current volume.</p><p>\"Temu proves such a logic: even in developed countries, the rich still only account for a small part, and there are also sinking markets abroad. Pinduoduo's logic in China may still apply.\" After reading Temu's data, a VC investor in Shanghai bluntly said.</p><p>\"Now is the best time to enter overseas markets.\" After analyzing Temu, Meng Yan said frankly, \"From the perspective of the general environment, during the economic downturn, people's demand for'cost performance 'is even greater. Coupled with the inflation in the United States in the past two years, objectively It gives platforms like Temu a more relaxed room to rise.\"</p><p><strong>When Internet giants collectively sit in charge</strong></p><p><strong>The era of going overseas is coming</strong></p><p>\"In addition to Huang Zheng, Ali Jiang Fan, ByteDance Zhang Yiming, and JD.com Liu Qiangdong have all gone overseas to look for opportunities.\" A VC close to a major Internet company lamented that almost everyone firmly believes that the time has come for China to rise to more global Internet platforms.</p><p>As Meng Yan analyzed, the domestic business of several major Internet companies is growing steadily. The outcome of community group buying that had been in constant melee before has been decided. Domestic competition can no longer \"roll\" to new heights, but foreign countries are still a blue ocean, full of various possibilities. Players who have experienced hundreds of battles have started the journey of \"Copy from China\".</p><p>Last year, Jiang Fan, the former president of Taobao and Tmall, was sent to Southeast Asia to be responsible for overseas business including Lazada. Prior to this, Lazada has changed its CEO many times, but no general has been in charge yet. In Ali's organizational structure adjustment and Zhang Yong's internal letter, the overseas business represented by Jiang Fan was mentioned for the first time as comparable to retail. It is understood that Jiang Fan may go to Europe next.</p><p>On the ByteDance side, Meng Yan revealed, \"This year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">Douyin</a>GMV should be able to reach 2 trillion, and the ceiling is visible to the naked eye. Several core executives, including Zhang Yiming, are actively exploring overseas markets. \" Previously, Byte's overseas business TikTok had set a goal: the number of global daily active users will exceed 1.05 billion by the end of 2022. In addition, Byte also recently launched lfYooou, a cross-border independent station specializing in selling women's clothing.</p><p>\"But TikTok is still the focus at present,\" the above-mentioned investor revealed. \"They feel that the Southeast Asian market is small, and the next part of the focus is also live broadcast e-commerce in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>Nowadays, the overseas war has started, and the heroes are competing for the deer. Wu Bin, a major Internet company located in Shanghai, mentioned, \"Recently, the feeling has become stronger and stronger. Chinese companies will go overseas more and more in the near future. Platforms such as TikTok, SHEIN, and Temu have begun to challenge foreign giants. system built.\"</p><p>In fact, this wave of going overseas did not appear overnight. China's new economy has experienced more than 20 years of development, forming a unique Internet model. \"These models can be moved overseas, such as e-commerce, take-out, fresh food and other projects that have been successful in China.\" Meng Yan introduced.</p><p>Drawing lessons from China's well-developed Internet entrepreneurial model, coupled with local localization innovation, this is \"Copy from China\", and these models will become new increments overseas and create a new industrial system, which has also attracted the attention of a group of domestic VCs.</p><p>\"Recently, we have been tracking their dynamics, and we often chat with these giants, looking for new companies that will grow under their ecosystem.\" Meng Yan said that now that new platforms such as TikTok and Temu are pouring out, there will be room to grow new brands, which is the same logic as Douyin's birth of a number of new brands in China.</p><p>In addition, a leading domestic VC institution has also set up a dedicated investment team, focusing on the \"Copy from China\" project. Most mainstream investment institutions such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse, Gaorong Capital, IDG Capital, and GGV Capital have also regarded overseas and globalization as important directions for institutional development in recent years.</p><p>This is a golden field for Chinese VCs-after all, after experiencing the era of Chinese model innovation, domestic investors can explore projects earlier, and they can also predict the development space and potential risks of enterprises in advance. The myth of venture capital return of the past two decades may be taking root in a foreign country.</p><p>(Meng Yan, Li Li and Wu Bin are pseudonyms in the text)</p><p><div></div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-11-29/detail-imqmmthc6438488.d.html?vt=4\">投资界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/667/w400h267/20221129/0e0e-ecfa3dd00d44bed384baf5ae1ef60c51.jpg/w120h90l50t1d40.jpg","relate_stocks":{"VC":"伟世通","LU0757428866.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AE\" (USD) ACC","PDD":"拼多多","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1815336091.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","BK4558":"双十一","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-11-29/detail-imqmmthc6438488.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287576021","content_text":"“Copy from China”。\n作者 I 杨文静\n“最近VC朋友聊得最多的话题，大概就是Temu了。”孟岩说。\n她曾任职于国内一家非常头部VC机构，目前执掌一家专注消费科技方向的新基金。出海，便是孟岩和团队重点关注的方向之一。这次出差深圳待了一周，密集聊了一波出海项目。\n聊到Temu——一个拼多多刚上线的出海项目，孟岩的话匣子打开了。今年9月，Temu悄悄上线北美，在黄峥师妹阿布的带领下一路横扫，迅速登顶美国APPstore免费购物应用榜单第一。昨晚（11月28日），拼多多发布了最新财报，单季净利润超120亿元。令人惊讶的是，拼多多把 Temu 摆在首要位置。\n“这种项目正是我们想投的。”和孟岩类似，李笠最近一直在看出海赛道，已经跟踪了Temu一段时间。他透露，其实不少同行都在打听进入Temu的机会，不过目前拼多多尚未开放融资机会。\n李笠感叹，“Temu的火爆，让我们更深刻感受到出海广阔的前景。”\nVC投不进去的项目\n几天前，孟岩团队刚做完几个互联网大厂的研究，得出初步结论：Temu肯定能做起来。\n这要从团队对拼多多的研究说起。今年以来，一二级市场估值倒挂，消费赛道虽然冷却，但不少品牌估值仍然虚高。相比初创公司估值动辄就喊到数十亿，孟岩开始在二级市场寻找一些便宜的机会，于是拼多多进入了团队的视野。\n把几个互联网大厂分析一遍，孟岩发现，阿里的市值一直在跌，京东随着大盘涨跌，相对平稳，只有拼多多仍在逆势增长。\n正如昨晚（11月28日），拼多多发布了2022年第三季度财报。报告期内，公司实现营收高达355亿元，同比增长65.1%；归属于普通股股东的净利润为105.9亿元，同比上涨546%，这已经是拼多多连续第六个季度维持利润正增长了。\n\n\n（拼多多三季度财报）\n\n至于背后的逻辑，孟岩作了一番分析：市场下行时期，主打性价比的平台反而更加坚挺。“通俗地说，大家越没钱，拼多多越稳”。而在欧美经济下行的时候，拼多多推出了出海项目Temu，相当于“复制”了母公司的运营模式，更是来得及时。\n”Temu”，一个拼多多自创的新词，母公司给予了它拿下海外市场的愿景。这个名字取得巧妙，在Temu官方下载界面上，新词汇附带着解释：“Team Up，Price Down”，中文翻译过来大致是：“组团买，更便宜”。一股拼多多风格油然而生。\n\n\n\n\n今年9月1日，Temu正式面世，首站进军北美。虽然因国外法律风险，“砍一刀”没能一起出海，但Temu还是祭出了最熟悉的玩法：拉一个用户，奖励20美金。可谓把主业的“病毒式传播”玩得炉火纯青。\n加上商品价格普遍低于同行，品类也满足了大多数北美人民群体的日常购物需求，Temu火了。在不少投资人看来，Temu增长潜力巨大——那片被SHEIN、亚马逊等群狼分割的土地迎来了搅局者。\n“当国内业务进入一个较为舒适的区域，拼多多得以抽身出来，集中所有重点兵力冲击海外市场。” 孟岩透露，据他所知，黄峥、阿布等拼多多元老级人物亲自坐镇，足以见他们对整个新项目的重视。\n“现在美元背景的VC朋友特别关注Temu。”曾几何时，拼多多给国内不少VC/PE机构带来了丰厚的回报，直接使一批年轻投资人实现造富神话。现在，海外版“拼多多”来了，故事更加诱人。\n孟岩并不掩饰，此前团队通过各种渠道跟Temu建立联系，沟通融资需求。不过一番接触后了解到，虽然Temu前期一直需要烧钱，但拼多多现金流充足，并没有分拆Temu的计划，这一业务目前也不打算融资，一级市场的投资人想投也拿不到份额。“如果开放融资，这一定是个挤破头的项目”。\nVC圈虎视眈眈，所有人不愿眼睁睁错过这个重量级项目。\n于是，有趣的一幕发生了：投不进Temu，VC直接加仓了拼多多的股票。\n黄峥师妹掌舵，Temu大杀四方\n在美国复制一个拼多多\n到底谁在执掌Temu项目？\n阿布这个名字浮出水面。她是拼多多一个重量级存在，这位黄峥的同门师妹原名叫顾娉娉，从黄峥创业之初就一直追随左右。多年来，阿布鲜少出现在公众视野中，但多多买菜的掌舵者是她，让拼多多一炮而红的“游戏拼单”模式同样由她操刀。\n一位拼多多前员工透露，“阿布相当于内部CEO，行政、技术、运营都归她管。”\n阿布出手，Temu的重要程度不言而喻。为了在北美杀出一条血路，拼多多对Temu的投入不亚于多多买菜。有报道称，拼多多曾计划第一个月为Temu投入10亿，试图在用户心中建立“Team up，Price down”的品牌形象。\n更直接的是，拼多多的投资者关系网页启用了新域名pddholdings.com（“拼多多控股”），并将公司介绍改为，“一家拥有并经营一系列业务的跨国商业集团，包括北美消费者电子商务市场Temu和头部社交商务平台拼多多”，在这一则介绍中，Temu甚至在语序上优先于主业“拼多多”。\n\n\n（拼多多投资者关系网简介）\n\n在大洋彼岸的另一头，Temu也不负众望。凭借“裂变式拉新”，上线一个月不到，Temu的单日下载量就超越了亚马逊和SHEIN，登顶美国APPstore免费购物应用榜单第一。\n抢员工、抢供应商、抢市场，焦虑传到了竞争对手这一端。社交平台上有人透露，Temu以高出SHEIN百分之六十的薪水挖人，考虑到跳槽的员工不方便搬家，Temu直接把办公地点挪到SHEIN两站开外的地铁站边。\n除了高薪抢人，Temu还以巨额单量红利拿住供应商。有卖家称，“在Temu做了三个月，一天稳定1000单”。传闻中，SHEIN开始要求商家“二选一”，甚至被曝出“员工一旦跳槽Temu，永不录用”的言论，但这些信息目前尚未得到证实。\n而在消费者一端，Temu更是低价抢占市场。平台上的夏季女装价格多在20美元以下，项链、戒指的价格在5-10美元的区间内，一些小物件甚至低到1美元以下。一位在亚马逊平台上做出口的从业者吐槽，Temu的零售价比他们的进货价还便宜。\n\n\n\n\n二级市场也在研究Temu。东兴证券此前分析，Temu采取类自营模式，卖家负责供货，平台掌握商品定价权，并要求卖家报送产品底价。凭借主业在国内打下的供应链基础，Temu得以将价格压到了最低，一度引发网友惊呼：“直接整顿美国电商行业！”\n目前，有媒体公布了一组数据：Temu的日均GMV已经突破150万美元（约1000万人民币），入驻商家数量近3万个，SKU高达30-40万，涵盖24个一级类目。如果数据属实，那么Temu月度GMV就已超3亿人民币，也就是说，两个月不到，Temu就超越了跨境电商9成玩家一年的体量。\n一家才上线两月的跨境平台，发展势头如此迅猛。按照之前的设想，年底前Temu的GMV目标是3-5亿美元，并在未来一年达成30亿美元的目标，这相当于SHEIN目前体量的1/10。\n“Temu证明了这样一个逻辑：即便是在发达国家，有钱人依然只占很小的一部分，国外同样有下沉市场，拼多多在中国的那套逻辑或许依然适用。”看过Temu的数据后，上海一位VC投资人直言。\n“现在正是进入海外市场最好的时机。”分析完Temu，孟岩坦言，“从大环境来看，经济下行时期，人们对‘性价比’的需求更甚，加上这两年美国通胀，客观上给了Temu这类平台更宽松的崛起空间。”\n当互联网大佬集体坐镇\n出海大时代来了\n“除了黄峥，阿里蒋凡、字节跳动张一鸣、京东刘强东都去海外找机会。”一位接近互联网大厂的VC感叹，几乎所有人都坚信，中国崛起更多全球性互联网平台的时候到了。\n正如孟岩分析，几个互联网大厂的国内业务正在稳定增长，此前混战不休的社区团购胜负已定，国内竞争再也“卷”不出新高度了，国外却还是一片蓝海，充满着各种可能性。身经百战的玩家们，开始了“Copy from China”之旅。\n去年，原淘宝、天猫总裁蒋凡被派到了东南亚，负责包括Lazada在内的海外业务。在此之前，Lazada多次更换CEO，但还没有一员大将坐镇。而在阿里的组织架构调整和张勇的内部信中，蒋凡所代表的海外业务首次被提到了与零售比肩的位置。据了解，蒋凡下一步可能还要去欧洲。\n而在字节跳动这边，孟岩透露，“今年抖音GMV应该能到2万亿，天花板肉眼可见。包括张一鸣在内的几个核心高管，都在积极开拓海外市场。”此前，字节的海外业务TikTok已经定下目标：2022年底全球日活用户数超10.5亿。此外，字节还在不久前推出了专门卖女装的跨境独立站lfYooou。\n“但目前TikTok依然是重点”，上述投资人透露，“他们觉得东南亚市场小，下一部分重心也是欧美的直播电商。”\n如今，海外烽烟已起，群雄逐鹿。位于上海某互联网大厂的吴彬提到，“最近感受越来越强烈，中国公司在不远的未来，会越来越多的出海。TikTok、SHEIN、Temu等平台，已经开始挑战国外巨头构建的体系。”\n实际上，这波出海浪潮并非一朝一夕出现。中国新经济经历过去20多年的发展，形成了独特的互联网模式。“这些模式是可以搬到海外去的，比如在中国已经成功的电商、外卖、生鲜等项目。”孟岩介绍。\n借鉴中国已经发展完善的互联网创业模式，再加以当地本土化创新，这便是“Copy from China”，而这些模式去到海外又将成为新的增量，创造出新的产业体系，这也吸引了一批国内VC的关注。\n“最近我们一直在追踪他们的动态，也经常跟这些巨头聊，寻找还会在他们的生态下长出来的新公司。”孟岩说，现在TikTok、Temu等新平台往外涌，会有空间长出新品牌来，这与抖音在国内催生一批新品牌的逻辑一样。\n此外，国内某头部VC机构也已经设置了专门的投资团队，重点关注“Copy from China”的项目。红杉中国、高瓴、高榕资本、IDG资本、GGV纪源资本等大多数主流投资机构，同样在近年将出海和全球化作为了机构发展的重要方向。\n这是属于中国VC们的一个黄金领域——毕竟亲历了中国模式创新时代，国内投资人能够更早发掘项目，也能够提前预知企业的发展空间以及潜在风险。过去二十年的创投回报神话，也许正在异国他乡生根发芽。\n（文中孟岩、李笠、吴彬为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VC":1,"PDD":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962348596,"gmtCreate":1669729171615,"gmtModify":1676538230878,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962348596","repostId":"2287719775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962920950,"gmtCreate":1669698831070,"gmtModify":1676538225430,"author":{"id":"4099786258906500","authorId":"4099786258906500","name":"DavidYu66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd1774e8c097af4fb7fc8cb40394a6f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099786258906500","idStr":"4099786258906500"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962920950","repostId":"2286561052","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286561052","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669625645,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286561052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 16:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Musk's latest exclusive interview: Young people must learn to think critically","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286561052","media":"市场资讯","summary":"如果在年轻的时候学习批判性思维，也可以避免人们的大脑建立错误的概念。","content":"<p><html><body>Source: Yabuli Entrepreneur Forum CEF</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/111/w550h361/20221128/b0fb-97720ea340482e21bb2d44c69f83050f.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Recently, at the B20 G20 Business Summit held in Bali, Indonesia, Elon Musk accepted a remote interview with entrepreneur and Indonesian Minister of Education, Culture, Research and Technology Nadeem Makarim.</p><p>Musk shared his views on education, learning, and explained the first principles of physics as a tool.</p><p><font>The following is the full text of the interview (with deletions):</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font><font>One of the things that a lot of people get confused about is how can you do so much? What Are Your Productivity Tools?</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Well, I do invest a lot of time. I'm not sure if I would recommend my practice to others,</font><font><font>Because I spend almost all my time working. I rarely take a break, even a Sunday.</font></font></p><p>Regarding tools for understanding the world, I think the physics framework is very helpful. In physics, we should think from the perspective of first principles.</p><p>For a particular situation, you try to understand the most basic truth and then reason based on it. Then, test your conclusions against what you believe to be fundamental truth.</p><p>In physics, it's like checking if you're violating the law of conservation of energy, or conservation of momentum, or something like that. It should always be assumed that we are wrong to some extent, and at the same time want to reduce the mistakes. This is very important.</p><p>It's a bit hard to cross pride, but it's great for getting to the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>This is an iterative process, constantly holding a healthy skepticism, and of course, a lot of time you invest.</font></font><font><font>I've noticed that when you try to make a change, the resistance that comes with change is very strong and very painful. There will be a whole group of people, who I classify as naysayers, who are constantly trying to say, what you are trying to achieve is impossible.</font></font><font><font>How do you deal with these naysayers?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I want to go back to physics, the only thing that is really impossible, is to break the laws of physics. As long as the laws of physics are not broken, anything is possible.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Anyone's opinion doesn't matter, physics is the law, everything else is advice.</font></font></font><font><font>I've seen many people break the law, but I've never seen anyone break the laws of physics.</font></font></p><p><font>Nadim: Anything is possible within the laws of physics?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Of course, you can also challenge the laws of physics, but they have been challenged enough, and they are very adaptable.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>Have there ever been a few landmark events that happened in your childhood or teenage years and had the most profound impact on you today?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I read a lot of science fiction and fantasy books, and I love movies like Star Trek and Star Wars.</font><font>Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a cinema.</font><font>At that time I</font><font>Only six,</font><font>To me</font><font>Have a very big impact.</font></p><p>The Lord of the Rings is my favorite book, Isaac Asimov's The Base series, and<font>The Stern Moon by Robert Heinlein also</font>Had a huge impact on me.</p><p>When trying to find the truth of things, I explored many ways, and finally found that physics is the best way to explore the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>NADEEM: You made it clear that there should actually be changes<font><font>education</font></font>In some way. Please tell me</font></font></font><font><font>Your thoughts on education, what would education look like in your ideal world?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I think when we try to learn something, building correlation is<font>Extremely important. Be often</font>Ask yourself, why learn this?</font></p><p><font>Our brains are constantly trying to forget. On a subconscious level, our brains try to decide what is relevant and what isn't.</font><font>The brain doesn't want to remember<font>We</font><font>Most of the things I see,</font></font><font>Therefore, correlations must be established.</font><font>Once a correlation is established, the brain naturally wants to remember it.</font></p><p><font>There are two different approaches to carrying out education. One is to teach through tools, the other is to teach through a problem we want to solve<font>Launch teaching</font>。</font><font>For example, faced with a series of lessons on wrenches, screwdrivers and winches, we get bored without establishing correlations.</font><font>However, if you disassemble and assemble an engine, contact with</font><font>Screwdrivers, wrenches, winches and other tools, we</font><font>Will understand their relevance well and keep them in mind.</font></p><p><font>It is a very simple but important principle that these tools will make sense if they are explained in the process of problem solving.</font><font>Otherwise, they will seem irrelevant and people won't remember them.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/140/w550h390/20221128/48ad-447802e4a709aab3bb3dfa8248ea361d.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>The homepage of the official website of Astra Nova (formerly known as Ad Astra), an experimental school promoted by Musk. The school adheres to teaching students in accordance with their aptitude and promotes many educational philosophies mentioned by Ma in this interview</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem: Is this practice happening in education systems around the world?</font></font></font><font><font>What changes need to be made from a faculty or curriculum perspective?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Often there are things that go the other way around.</font><font>They will teach</font><font>You use tools instead of teaching you how to solve problems and then establishing the relevance of tools.</font></p><p><font>For example, you might take a calculus course but have no idea why you are studying calculus.</font><font>Actually, for a lot of people, this may be a mental disorder course that doesn't make sense, and it doesn't make sense learning calculus unless you expect to use it in the future.</font></p><p><font>Quite frankly, a lot of education is pointless. People are taught a lot of things, but in fact, they won't be used in the future.</font><font>If I could make one strong suggestion, it would be that critical thinking should be taught early in education.</font></p><p><font>Critical thinking is important because it creates psychological firewalls that enable children to reject unconvincing concepts,</font><font>just like</font><font>Have a defense system against psychic viruses.</font><font>If you study at a young age<font>Critical thinking, also</font>It can prevent people's brains from building false concepts.</font></p><p><font>Moreover, know how to resist mental trickery.</font><font>People tend to trap you with fallacies,</font><font>Therefore, it will be a good course to master the ability to resist fallacies.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>If young people asked you for career advice, which industries would you recommend? And, which industries are likely to lose value in the future?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Any industry related to sustainable energy and<font>artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>，</font>It will be very important in the future. For example,</font><font>Self-driving cars, self-flying planes, self-driving ships...<font>Also in synthetic biology</font><font>There are many opportunities,</font><font>Synthetic messenger RNA</font><font>Will become a revolution in the field of medicine.</font></font></p><p><font>Of course, these are very technical topics, and there are many other things worth pursuing,</font><font>But as a technical expert,</font><font><font>Sustainable energy, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology</font><font>Learn<font>Three major collars</font><font>Domain</font></font></font><font>That's what I suggest</font><font>。</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/68/w448h420/20221128/77a5-a3ef102799f62a7263d2cdaae942752a.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Messenger ribonucleic acid (messenger RNA, abbreviation: mRNA) is transcribed from DNA and carries the corresponding genetic information to provide the required information for the next translation into protein (Source: Wikipedia)</p><p><font>Nadiem: Which technologies scare you the most in terms of risk?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>We should worry about artificial intelligence,</font><font>We don't want digital superintelligence that has gone astray to cause damage to human beings.</font><font>We do need to be cautious about AI.</font></p><p>It also has the potential to become dangerous when it comes to synthetic biology. Because, it has the potential to create viruses that are more destructive than those that occur naturally.</p><p>These technical tools are definitely double-edged swords. The more powerful the technology is, the more careful we need to be when using it.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>What do you think Indonesia needs to do to become a global economic powerhouse by 2045?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Extensive education clearly makes a lot of sense. Having a high speed internet connection throughout Indonesia will be very important.</font><font>even if</font><font>With only a cheap device and low-cost Internet access, people</font><font>You can learn anything.</font></p><p>For example, MIT classes are free on Tubing. You can learn almost anything you want on the internet for free.<font>So I think extensive internet connectivity is crucial because it allows people to learn whatever they want, at the speed they like.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/52/w550h302/20221128/cfb5-89f944befce0c49a415df548066b1dec.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>Nadeem: Then there are some audience questions. He wants to know what's the biggest obstacle or mistake you've ever faced? How is it overcome?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Frankly, I've made a lot of mistakes and it takes forever to list them all.</font><font>As time goes by, we always aspire to reduce mistakes, but</font><font>It is also very difficult to make fewer mistakes every day.</font></p><p>I have said publicly that both the mind and thinking are very important, and we can't just look at thinking. One of the biggest mistakes I've ever made in hiring people is to put too much emphasis on their thinking ability and neglect their mental maturity.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/81/w550h331/20221128/555c-80454a0cc0f70b8b4b07dc56ed800c19.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>I think the higher principle is that we<font>You should always assume that you are wrong, which you are, and at the same time</font>Strive to make fewer mistakes, and try to make fewer mistakes every day.</font><font>In this process,</font><font>Want to</font><font>Take \"</font><font>Make fewer mistakes \", rather than think you're right</font><font>, and</font><font>Let someone else</font><font>To prove you're right</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>Nadeem: Last question, which</font></font><font><font>Daily habits that make you who you are now?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>As far as daily habits are concerned, I am curious about the world and how it works, about technology, and about everything. I think curiosity is a very important thing,</font><font>meanwhile</font><font>, also</font><font>Have a certain degree of persistence in curiosity. So,</font><font>Persistent curiosity is important.</font></p><p><font>And, I think the spirit of adventure is also good. People are afraid of certain things, but they don't have to.</font><font>Sometimes our instinctive fear is not commensurate with the actual danger, and the next time we face it, we should</font><font>Try rethinking, like, is this fear justified?</font><font>Could something bad really happen?</font><font>We</font><font>Must look at it</font><font>Instinctively fear, and question it,</font><font>A simple examination of the fear may make it go away.</font></p><p>* Article source Economics One Gram Nanometer</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's latest exclusive interview: Young people must learn to think critically</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's latest exclusive interview: Young people must learn to think critically\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-28 16:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Source: Yabuli Entrepreneur Forum CEF</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/111/w550h361/20221128/b0fb-97720ea340482e21bb2d44c69f83050f.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Recently, at the B20 G20 Business Summit held in Bali, Indonesia, Elon Musk accepted a remote interview with entrepreneur and Indonesian Minister of Education, Culture, Research and Technology Nadeem Makarim.</p><p>Musk shared his views on education, learning, and explained the first principles of physics as a tool.</p><p><font>The following is the full text of the interview (with deletions):</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font><font>One of the things that a lot of people get confused about is how can you do so much? What Are Your Productivity Tools?</font></font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Well, I do invest a lot of time. I'm not sure if I would recommend my practice to others,</font><font><font>Because I spend almost all my time working. I rarely take a break, even a Sunday.</font></font></p><p>Regarding tools for understanding the world, I think the physics framework is very helpful. In physics, we should think from the perspective of first principles.</p><p>For a particular situation, you try to understand the most basic truth and then reason based on it. Then, test your conclusions against what you believe to be fundamental truth.</p><p>In physics, it's like checking if you're violating the law of conservation of energy, or conservation of momentum, or something like that. It should always be assumed that we are wrong to some extent, and at the same time want to reduce the mistakes. This is very important.</p><p>It's a bit hard to cross pride, but it's great for getting to the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>This is an iterative process, constantly holding a healthy skepticism, and of course, a lot of time you invest.</font></font><font><font>I've noticed that when you try to make a change, the resistance that comes with change is very strong and very painful. There will be a whole group of people, who I classify as naysayers, who are constantly trying to say, what you are trying to achieve is impossible.</font></font><font><font>How do you deal with these naysayers?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I want to go back to physics, the only thing that is really impossible, is to break the laws of physics. As long as the laws of physics are not broken, anything is possible.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Anyone's opinion doesn't matter, physics is the law, everything else is advice.</font></font></font><font><font>I've seen many people break the law, but I've never seen anyone break the laws of physics.</font></font></p><p><font>Nadim: Anything is possible within the laws of physics?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Of course, you can also challenge the laws of physics, but they have been challenged enough, and they are very adaptable.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>Have there ever been a few landmark events that happened in your childhood or teenage years and had the most profound impact on you today?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I read a lot of science fiction and fantasy books, and I love movies like Star Trek and Star Wars.</font><font>Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a cinema.</font><font>At that time I</font><font>Only six,</font><font>To me</font><font>Have a very big impact.</font></p><p>The Lord of the Rings is my favorite book, Isaac Asimov's The Base series, and<font>The Stern Moon by Robert Heinlein also</font>Had a huge impact on me.</p><p>When trying to find the truth of things, I explored many ways, and finally found that physics is the best way to explore the truth of things.</p><p><font><font><font>NADEEM: You made it clear that there should actually be changes<font><font>education</font></font>In some way. Please tell me</font></font></font><font><font>Your thoughts on education, what would education look like in your ideal world?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>I think when we try to learn something, building correlation is<font>Extremely important. Be often</font>Ask yourself, why learn this?</font></p><p><font>Our brains are constantly trying to forget. On a subconscious level, our brains try to decide what is relevant and what isn't.</font><font>The brain doesn't want to remember<font>We</font><font>Most of the things I see,</font></font><font>Therefore, correlations must be established.</font><font>Once a correlation is established, the brain naturally wants to remember it.</font></p><p><font>There are two different approaches to carrying out education. One is to teach through tools, the other is to teach through a problem we want to solve<font>Launch teaching</font>。</font><font>For example, faced with a series of lessons on wrenches, screwdrivers and winches, we get bored without establishing correlations.</font><font>However, if you disassemble and assemble an engine, contact with</font><font>Screwdrivers, wrenches, winches and other tools, we</font><font>Will understand their relevance well and keep them in mind.</font></p><p><font>It is a very simple but important principle that these tools will make sense if they are explained in the process of problem solving.</font><font>Otherwise, they will seem irrelevant and people won't remember them.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/140/w550h390/20221128/48ad-447802e4a709aab3bb3dfa8248ea361d.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>The homepage of the official website of Astra Nova (formerly known as Ad Astra), an experimental school promoted by Musk. The school adheres to teaching students in accordance with their aptitude and promotes many educational philosophies mentioned by Ma in this interview</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem: Is this practice happening in education systems around the world?</font></font></font><font><font>What changes need to be made from a faculty or curriculum perspective?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Often there are things that go the other way around.</font><font>They will teach</font><font>You use tools instead of teaching you how to solve problems and then establishing the relevance of tools.</font></p><p><font>For example, you might take a calculus course but have no idea why you are studying calculus.</font><font>Actually, for a lot of people, this may be a mental disorder course that doesn't make sense, and it doesn't make sense learning calculus unless you expect to use it in the future.</font></p><p><font>Quite frankly, a lot of education is pointless. People are taught a lot of things, but in fact, they won't be used in the future.</font><font>If I could make one strong suggestion, it would be that critical thinking should be taught early in education.</font></p><p><font>Critical thinking is important because it creates psychological firewalls that enable children to reject unconvincing concepts,</font><font>just like</font><font>Have a defense system against psychic viruses.</font><font>If you study at a young age<font>Critical thinking, also</font>It can prevent people's brains from building false concepts.</font></p><p><font>Moreover, know how to resist mental trickery.</font><font>People tend to trap you with fallacies,</font><font>Therefore, it will be a good course to master the ability to resist fallacies.</font></p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>If young people asked you for career advice, which industries would you recommend? And, which industries are likely to lose value in the future?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Any industry related to sustainable energy and<font>artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>，</font>It will be very important in the future. For example,</font><font>Self-driving cars, self-flying planes, self-driving ships...<font>Also in synthetic biology</font><font>There are many opportunities,</font><font>Synthetic messenger RNA</font><font>Will become a revolution in the field of medicine.</font></font></p><p><font>Of course, these are very technical topics, and there are many other things worth pursuing,</font><font>But as a technical expert,</font><font><font>Sustainable energy, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology</font><font>Learn<font>Three major collars</font><font>Domain</font></font></font><font>That's what I suggest</font><font>。</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/68/w448h420/20221128/77a5-a3ef102799f62a7263d2cdaae942752a.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div>Messenger ribonucleic acid (messenger RNA, abbreviation: mRNA) is transcribed from DNA and carries the corresponding genetic information to provide the required information for the next translation into protein (Source: Wikipedia)</p><p><font>Nadiem: Which technologies scare you the most in terms of risk?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>We should worry about artificial intelligence,</font><font>We don't want digital superintelligence that has gone astray to cause damage to human beings.</font><font>We do need to be cautious about AI.</font></p><p>It also has the potential to become dangerous when it comes to synthetic biology. Because, it has the potential to create viruses that are more destructive than those that occur naturally.</p><p>These technical tools are definitely double-edged swords. The more powerful the technology is, the more careful we need to be when using it.</p><p><font><font><font>Nadeem:</font></font></font><font><font>What do you think Indonesia needs to do to become a global economic powerhouse by 2045?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Extensive education clearly makes a lot of sense. Having a high speed internet connection throughout Indonesia will be very important.</font><font>even if</font><font>With only a cheap device and low-cost Internet access, people</font><font>You can learn anything.</font></p><p>For example, MIT classes are free on Tubing. You can learn almost anything you want on the internet for free.<font>So I think extensive internet connectivity is crucial because it allows people to learn whatever they want, at the speed they like.</font></p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/52/w550h302/20221128/cfb5-89f944befce0c49a415df548066b1dec.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>Nadeem: Then there are some audience questions. He wants to know what's the biggest obstacle or mistake you've ever faced? How is it overcome?</font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>Frankly, I've made a lot of mistakes and it takes forever to list them all.</font><font>As time goes by, we always aspire to reduce mistakes, but</font><font>It is also very difficult to make fewer mistakes every day.</font></p><p>I have said publicly that both the mind and thinking are very important, and we can't just look at thinking. One of the biggest mistakes I've ever made in hiring people is to put too much emphasis on their thinking ability and neglect their mental maturity.</p><p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/crawl/81/w550h331/20221128/555c-80454a0cc0f70b8b4b07dc56ed800c19.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><font>I think the higher principle is that we<font>You should always assume that you are wrong, which you are, and at the same time</font>Strive to make fewer mistakes, and try to make fewer mistakes every day.</font><font>In this process,</font><font>Want to</font><font>Take \"</font><font>Make fewer mistakes \", rather than think you're right</font><font>, and</font><font>Let someone else</font><font>To prove you're right</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>Nadeem: Last question, which</font></font><font><font>Daily habits that make you who you are now?</font></font></p><p><font><font><font>Elon Musk:</font></font></font><font>As far as daily habits are concerned, I am curious about the world and how it works, about technology, and about everything. I think curiosity is a very important thing,</font><font>meanwhile</font><font>, also</font><font>Have a certain degree of persistence in curiosity. So,</font><font>Persistent curiosity is important.</font></p><p><font>And, I think the spirit of adventure is also good. People are afraid of certain things, but they don't have to.</font><font>Sometimes our instinctive fear is not commensurate with the actual danger, and the next time we face it, we should</font><font>Try rethinking, like, is this fear justified?</font><font>Could something bad really happen?</font><font>We</font><font>Must look at it</font><font>Instinctively fear, and question it,</font><font>A simple examination of the fear may make it go away.</font></p><p>* Article source Economics One Gram Nanometer</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-11-28/doc-imqmmthc6299945.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) 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SGD-H","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-11-28/doc-imqmmthc6299945.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286561052","content_text":"来源：亚布力企业家论坛CEF近日，在印尼巴厘岛举行的B20二十国集团工商界峰会上，埃隆·马斯克接受了企业家，印度尼西亚教育、文化、研究和技术部长纳迪姆·马卡里姆的远程采访。马斯克分享了关于教育，学习的看法，并解释了物理学第一性原理这个工具。以下为访谈全文（有删减）：纳迪姆：很多人感到困惑的一件事是，你怎么能做这么多事？你的生产力工具有哪些？埃隆·马斯克：嗯，我确实投入了大量的时间。我不确定，我是否会向其他人推荐我的做法，因为我几乎所有时间都在工作。我很少休息，哪怕是一个星期天。关于理解世界的工具，我认为，物理学框架是非常有帮助的。在物理学中，要从第一性原理的角度进行思考。对于一种特定的情况，你尝试理解最基本的真理，然后基于此进行推理。然后，根据你认为的基本真理来检验你的结论。在物理学中，这就像检验你是否违反了能量守恒，或动量守恒，或类似的定律。应该永远假设，我们在某种程度上是错误的，同时想减少错误。这一点非常重要。这有点难以跨越自尊心，但它对于了解事情的真相很有帮助。纳迪姆：这是个迭代的过程，不断持有健康的怀疑态度，当然，还有你投入的大量时间。我注意到，当你尝试做出改变时，改变带来的阻力是非常大的，也是非常痛苦的。会有一整群人，我把他们归类为反对者，他们不断地试图说，你所要实现的目标是不可能的。你如何应对这些反对者？埃隆·马斯克：我想回到物理学上，唯一真正不可能的事情，是打破物理学定律。只要没打破物理定律，一切皆有可能。任何人的意见都不重要，物理学是定律，其他一切都是建议。我见过很多人违反法律，但我从未见过有人违反物理学定律。纳迪姆：在物理学定律范围内，任何事情都有可能？埃隆·马斯克：当然，你也可以挑战物理学定律，但它们已经被挑战得够多的，它们有很强的适应性。纳迪姆：是否曾经有几个里程碑式的事件，发生在你的儿童或青少年时代，并给今天的你带来了最深远影响？埃隆·马斯克：我读了很多科幻和奇幻书籍，我喜欢《星际迷航》《星球大战》这类电影。《星球大战》是我在电影院看过的第一部电影。当时我只有六岁，对我产生非常大的影响。《指环王》是我最喜欢的书，艾萨克·阿西莫夫的《基地》系列，以及罗伯特·海因莱因的《严厉的月亮》也对我有巨大的影响。在尝试寻求事物的真相时，我探索了很多途径，最终发现，物理学是探索事物真相的最佳途径。纳迪姆：你明确指出过，应该实际改变教育的某些方式。请说一下你对教育的想法，在你的理想世界里，教育是什么样子的？埃隆·马斯克：我认为，当我们尝试学习一些东西时，建立相关性是极其重要的。要经常问问自己，为什么学这个？我们的大脑一直在试图忘却。在潜意识层面上，我们的大脑试图决定什么相关，什么不相关。大脑并不想记住我们看到的大多数东西，因此，必须建立相关性。一旦建立了相关性，大脑自然就会想要记住它。有两种开展教育的不同方法。一种是通过工具展开教学，另一种是通过我们想解决的一个问题来展开教学。例如，面对一系列关于扳手、螺丝刀和绞盘的课程，如果不建立相关性，我们会感到很无聊。但如果通过拆装一个发动机，接触到螺丝刀、扳手、绞盘等工具，我们会很好理解它们的相关性，并且记住它们。这是一个非常简单但重要的原则，即在解决问题的过程中解释这些工具，这些工具就会有意义。否则，它们就会显得毫不相关，人们也不会记住它们。马斯克推动创办的实验性学校Astra Nova（前称：Ad Astra）的官网首页。学校秉承因材施教，推动了很多马在这个访谈中提到的教育理念纳迪姆：这种做法是否正在世界各地的教育系统中发生？从教师或课程的角度来看，需要做出些什么改变？埃隆·马斯克：经常有一些事情是反着来的。他们会教你使用工具，而不是教你如何解决问题，然后再建立工具的相关性。例如，你可能会参加一门微积分课程，但不知道为什么要学习微积分。实际上，对很多人来说，这可能是一门没有意义的心理障碍课程，除非你期望在未来使用它，否则学习微积分是没有意义的。坦率地说，很多教育都是毫无意义的。人们被教了很多东西，但实际上，未来并不会使用到这些东西。如果我可以提出一个强烈的建议，那就是，在教育早期就应该教授批判性思维。批判性思维非常重要，因为它创建了心理防火墙，使儿童能够拒绝那些没有说服力的概念，就像拥有一个抗心灵病毒的防御系统。如果在年轻的时候学习批判性思维，也可以避免人们的大脑建立错误的概念。而且，还要知道如何抵御精神诡计。人们往往会用谬论来困住你，因此掌握抵御谬论的能力，将是一门很好的课程。纳迪姆：如果年轻人向你询问职业建议，你会推荐哪些行业？以及，未来哪些行业可能价值会降低？埃隆·马斯克：任何与可持续能源有关的行业以及人工智能，在未来都将是非常重要的。例如，自动驾驶的汽车、自动飞行的飞机、自动行驶的船只．．．．．．在合成生物学方面也有很多的机会，合成信使RNA将成为医药领域的一场革命。当然，这些都是非常技术性的课题，还有许多其他值得追求的东西，但作为技术专家，可持续能源，人工智能，合成生物学三大领域就是我的建议。信使核糖核酸（messenger RNA，缩写：mRNA），是由DNA经由转录而来，带着相应的遗传讯息，为下一步翻译成蛋白质提供所需的讯息（源：维基百科）纳迪姆：就风险而言，哪些技术最让你害怕？埃隆·马斯克：我们应该对人工智能心存担忧，不希望出现走向歧路的数字超级智能对人类造成损害。我们确实需要对人工智能持谨慎态度。在合成生物学方面，它也有可能变得危险。因为，它有可能创造出比自然出现的更具破坏性的病毒。这些技术工具，绝对是双刃剑。技术越强大，我们在使用时就越需要小心。纳迪姆：你认为印度尼西亚需要做些什么，才能在2045年成为全球经济强国？埃隆·马斯克：广泛的教育显然很有意义。在印度尼西亚全国拥有高速互联网连接将非常重要。哪怕只有一个廉价的设备和低成本的互联网接入，人们就可以学到任何东西。例如，麻省理工学院的课程在油管上是免费的。你几乎可以在互联网上免费学习任何你想要的内容。因此，我认为广泛的互联网连接是至关重要的，因为它允许人们以他们喜欢的速度，学习任何他们想学的内容。纳迪姆：接下来是一些观众问题。他想知道你曾面临的最大障碍或错误是什么？是如何克服的？埃隆·马斯克：坦率地说，我犯过很多错，把它们全部列出来要花很长的时间。随着时间的推移，我们总渴望能够减少错误，但要每天少犯错，也是很难的。我曾经公开说过，心智和思维都很重要，不能光看思维。我在雇用人员方面所犯过最大的错误之一，就是过于看重他们的思维能力，而忽视心智的成熟。我认为更高的原则是，我们应该永远假设自己是错的，事实上也的确如此，同时要争取少犯错，并且每天努力减少犯错。在这个过程中，要采取“减少犯错”的方法，而不是认为自己是对的，并且让别人来证明你是对的。纳迪姆：最后一个问题，哪些日常习惯，让你成为了现在的你？埃隆·马斯克：就日常习惯而言，我对世界及世界的运作方式充满好奇，对技术好奇，对一切事物好奇。我认为，好奇心是一个非常重要的东西，同时，还要对好奇心有一定的执着。所以，执着的好奇心是很重要的。并且，我认为冒险精神也很好。人们对某些事情感到害怕，其实大可不必。有时候，我们的本能恐惧与实际危险并不相称，下次再面临恐惧，我们应该尝试重新思考，比如，这种恐惧是合理的吗？会不会真的有不好的事发生？我们必须要审视一下本能恐惧，并质疑它，简单地审视一下恐惧，也许就会让它消失。* 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