TL;DR: A mysterious institution is bullish on Tesla, expecting the stock price to explore $210 in June and return above the year's high of $250 by August.On the afternoon of April 28th, a sudden news report revealed that Elon Musk had been invited to visit China. The main purpose is to discuss the deployment of Tesla's self-driving technology in the Chinese market. Although there is no specific timeline, judging from official Weibo statements and the Tesla app's purchase page descriptions, cooperation between the two parties seems highly likely.On Monday, Tesla finally reversed its sluggish performance this year, with its pre-market stock price surging 12%, showing strong signs of a trend reversal. Previously, Tesla's option big orders were predominantly bearish, with the main strategy bei
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Market Makers Likely to Pin Tesla's Price to Profit from Both Calls and Puts
TLDR: Tesla has a high probability of trading around $190 this week. If there is a significant deviation on Thursday or Friday, it may be worth considering buying options to speculate on a potential squeeze. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ surged 15% on Monday, which should theoretically indicate bullish market sentiment. However, after battling market makers for so long, the first thing I checked was the open interest data for put options. As expected, the open interest for puts with strike prices between $195 and $185 saw a substantial increase.On the call side, the strikes with the largest increase in open interest were mainly above $200. But the $190 to $200 strike range already had significant open interest. Therefore, this week's Tesla price action is
Elon Musk's Travel Plans Leaked, Bulls Quietly Buy Huge Call Options Betting on $250!
Elon Musk's Travel Plans Leaked, Bulls Quietly Buy Huge Call Options Betting on $250!
Institutional Crazy Operation Review: Buying Call Options on the Plunge, Making a Huge Profit
This article mainly includes three parts: the mystery behind Nvidia's surge on Friday, the position adjustment of institutional big orders after earnings reports, and the prediction for the market in the first week of May.Market Review: $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Let me admit a mistake first. I said last Friday that Nvidia would likely close between $800 and $840, but it actually surged to close at $879. What happened?Because I didn't confirm the changes in option positions on Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, when Nvidia's stock price fell below $800 on Wednesday, the open interest for the $840 and $850 call options increased by 14,000 and 11,000 contracts respectively.So on Friday, with the perfect timing, market conditions and bullish sentiment, the st
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ - I sold META puts a couple days ago. Although I believe META can rebound in the future, the capital used to take on those put positions will likely be tied up for at least 3 months. As someone who tries to unite theory and practice, I didn't really feel like talking much tonight and wanted to remain quiet.Despite lacking energy, I still need to maintain daily observations. An interesting question arises - after an earnings release, will market makers start killing off option positions?Call options will undoubtedly get crushed. For META's put options this week, the 450, 470, 440, 400, 480 strikes have the highest open interest. Looking at the intraday movements, although market makers can't control everything, they sti
Little Chance of Breaking 170, but Tesla's Friday Action is Worth a Shot
In summary: Tesla's stock price is likely to settle around $160 this week, but there is a small probability of a gamma squeeze on call options, pushing the price up to $170.After its earnings report, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rebounded 11%, essentially just recouping last week's losses. Apart from "killing" the shorts, there seems to be no other substantial impact - it was just noise.The short-sellers were hit hard, with the effect being significant. The top 9 out-of-the-money put options expiring this week were essentially all buried, expiring worthless. Listed from low to high strike prices, the put options with open interest above 10,000 contracts had strikes at: 150, 140, 130, 135, 75, 120, 100, 145, 125, 160, 115, 155, 110, and 90.The distribution
Little Chance of Breaking 170, but Tesla's Friday Action is Worth a Shot
Institutional Strategies for This Week: ITM Straddles with Limited Leverage and Risk Control
Impacted by last week's plunge, tech earnings this week, even with robust numbers, may not see significant rallies and could potentially decline further. As a result, large options orders for tech stocks appear to have turned quite conservative, with institutions starting to employ in-the-money option combinations to reduce costs and control risks. This reflects the market's skepticism about the sustainability of the current market rebound. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I believe META will remain the strongest performer this earnings season due to its monopolistic advantages. However, expectations should not be set too high, as the previous sell-off has made $525 a minor resistance level, making a repeat of last quarter's 20% surge unrealistic. No
This week, the decisive battle for NVIDIA revolves around $800
After examining Friday's new options positions, I feel there's no need to wait until Monday's market close. I can assert that this week, the battle for NVIDIA's stock price will revolve around the $800 level.Specifically, I'm optimistic that NVIDIA will be able to maintain a price above $800 this week, although upside may be capped around the $840 level.Let me first share the overall picture of NVIDIA's options. Although some might regret missing last week's plunge, there's no need to worry, as the next major options expiration event is on May 17th, when the monthly options for May expire, with a significant number of open interest contracts. However, the specific dynamics will depend on the price movement preferences in May, for which I'll conduct a thorough analysis as we approach that d
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ failed to withstand the squeeze pressure and plunged towards $800. The overall market had a significant number of options expiring on April 19th, with a heavy tilt towards puts, creating a resonance effect. As my friend said, it seems like we have an "option expiration day" every month now.Despite our thorough analysis this week, our optimism was a bit excessive. However, the silver lining is that after experiencing this minor squeeze, we'll be more cautious when we encounter similar option expiration setups in the future.Although NVIDIA's stock price took a substantial hit, there's some good news. After this Friday, the massive number of put options expiring on April 19th will be cleared, leading to a cliff-like decrease in NV
$NVIDIA (NVDA)$ The TSMC earnings report is crucial, and NVIDIA's stock price trajectory this week largely hinges on TSMC's performance. If TSMC's earnings are favorable, NVIDIA's stock price is likely to close above $850 on Friday. Conversely, if TSMC's earnings disappoint, NVIDIA's stock could slide to around $800. After all, this week's outstanding put options for NVIDIA are heavily concentrated at the lower strike prices of $800, $850, $820, $840, and $830.As a steadfast bull, I anticipate that TSMC's earnings will boost NVIDIA, allowing it to maintain a level above $850 this week. However, a dip to $800 is also within expectations, potentially triggering a squeeze. A squeeze, similar to GameStop (GME) being driven to $800, refers to a short-c
This week Nvidia launched the 850 defense battle
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ - The Nvidia options market is expected to replay last week's battle, with market makers continuing to pressure both calls and puts. The 900 calls ($NVDA 20240419 900 CALL$ ) and 850/800 puts ($NVDA 20240419 850 PUT$ , $NVDA 20240419 800 PUT$ ) remain the targets to be crushed. So after taking out the 900 calls on Monday, the next 4 days will be a defense of 850. Holding 850 could allow for a minor bounce, but failing to defend it will likely trigger a squeeze down towards 800. The trading mindset remains similar to last week:Eit
Tracking the Footprints of Option Whales: 5 Stocks to Watch for Explosive Gains
The biggest pain point for stock investors is the inability to track the movements of large funds in real-time. Although fund companies disclose their stock purchases and sales through 13F filings every quarter, these are still backward-looking reports. Given the different trading styles of various funds, investors find it difficult to grasp where the money is actually flowing. Funds may have already adjusted their positions by the time of disclosure, with even investment giants like Berkshire Hathaway significantly reshuffling their holdings within a single quarter.As such, the ability to directly track large order flows has become a major advantage of options trading. The now-famous story of the "NVIDIA $200 Million Whale" is likely familiar to veteran options traders. We have tracked th
Tracking the Footprints of Option Whales: 5 Stocks to Watch for Explosive Gains
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Options Market Makers Went Crazy This WeekThe market makers absolutely crushed the $NVDA$ put options for this week's expiry - the 870, 850, 840 and even 800 strikes all got wiped out. Shockingly, they even killed the 900 calls. I thought the 870 strike was an overly aggressive target earlier in the week, but the market makers actually pulled it off.A ton of open interest remains for the April monthly options expiring next week. However, the script may be similar to this week's. If the stock price holds in the 880-900 range on Friday like today, the remaining open interest could get obliterated again. Without further ado, I'm selling the $NVDA 20240419 880 PUT$
I was originally going to analyze $Netflix(NFLX)$ earnings report, but after reviewing the option chain, I couldn't find any meaningful insights. Option trading volume is not at yearly lows, but it's close to the bottom, with almost no institutional activity on the large order side. Based on historical volatility, there should have been some straddle trading, but there wasn't any. The only two large orders that looked like earnings bets were outright purchases of put options: $NFLX 20240510 520.0 PUT$ and $NFLX 20241220 380.0 PUT$ . Meanwhile, all the fundamental analysis articles about Netflix were bullish, in
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ direction felt unclear yesterday, with two main trading paths emerging: either bet that Nvidia will not fall to 800 over these next two weeks, or bet that it will decline to 800. My thinking on the former is to wager that it doesn't fall below 850 this week and doesn't breach 800 next week. Because 825 is a support level and 750 is another support level. Then the sell put options for expirations over the next two weeks has three strike price choices: 850, 800, 750 - you can choose the one fitting your risk appetite.The contrasting second way to trade is to bet the stock slides towards 800 over the next two weeks, which also gives rise to several strategies, such as three: buy put, sell put, or sell call. Buying put means purcha
@OptionsDelta:$Nvidia (NVDA)$ not breaking down through 870 is one thing, but actually breaking down is another matter. Tuesday's open failing to hold triggered a mini downward chain reaction, with NVDA's decision level reaching 850. The safest put selling level ahead of April 19th over the next two weeks has shifted to 800. The recent sideways trading has also impacted longer-dated option positioning - some June/July far-dated calls, especially those with strikes above 1100, have seen closing sales or new sell openings. As for the $200 million guy's 880 calls, as long as the stock price reaches above 1024 by June 21st, he can break even.Current put option open interest over 10,000 contracts ranked:$NV
$Nvidia (NVDA)$ not breaking down through 870 is one thing, but actually breaking down is another matter. Tuesday's open failing to hold triggered a mini downward chain reaction, with NVDA's decision level reaching 850. The safest put selling level ahead of April 19th over the next two weeks has shifted to 800. The recent sideways trading has also impacted longer-dated option positioning - some June/July far-dated calls, especially those with strikes above 1100, have seen closing sales or new sell openings. As for the $200 million guy's 880 calls, as long as the stock price reaches above 1024 by June 21st, he can break even.Current put option open interest over 10,000 contracts ranked:$NV
Small short close, this week Nvidia battle 870
$Nvidia (NVDA)$ In fact, it's not just me following the big orders in the market. Other institutions are also watching and acting in line with their peers. When their peers sell, they sell too. Last week, I shared a large sell order for the $NVDA 20240426 950.0 CALL$ that was executed on April 1st. Today, upon checking the closing positions, I found that the 10,000 contract $NVDA 20240621 1200.0 CALL$ long position was also closed out later that day. Subsequently, on April 3rd, there was a large sell order for the $NVDA 20240621 1180.0 CALL$
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Weekly 905 Strike Puts No Longer Pose Threat to Market Makers, All Positions Closed Out. Major New Openings This Week Were 900-875 Put Spreads, Direction Unclear but Likely Range-Bound Between Those Strikes. Additionally, There Was a Large Sell Order on $NVDA 20240426 950.0 CALL$ . Interestingly, AMD Also Had a Large Sell Order on $AMD 20240426 185.0 CALL$ With the Same Expiry Date, Suggesting Underlying Chip Stocks May Struggle Over the Upcoming Tomb Sweeping Holiday, With NVDA Likely More Resilient Than AMD. The NVDA Call Was Deep Out-of-the-Money While AMD Was At-the-Money When Traded.Se
$Nvidia (NVDA)$up and down turn, this week mainly put, mainly 905. Although 850 open positions are not the main target. The market does have a pullback tendency but Nvidia is safe. As for NVDL, call options unexpectedly have higher relative open interest, and put options have the first open interest this week at 40.$Reddit(RDDT)$45 put options expired on April 5 last Friday, the first open position, and the open position of 35, 30, 25 put options expired on April 19 continued to rise, and saw the rise squeeze did not play, and the fall squeeze is very likely.As the counterparty to the purchase of the put option, the market maker needs to sell the put option and then to hedge it needs to short the stock. A
Nvidia 2X Leveraged ETF weekly expiration options online, annualized return 214% !
Yesterday after finishing the article, I realized that with 200 million bro's all-in bet of $2 billion, it's a foregone conclusion that Nvidia will surpass $1000 in Q2 earnings. Are you all prepared?The market makers were even more ruthless than expected this week. During my replay on Monday, I pointed out that four heavy open interests must kill three of them, but I didn't expect the 950 calls to get killed in the end. However, it doesn't mean the 930 puts survived either, with only 6,531 open interest remaining. Many ran away on Monday and Tuesday.Looking at the open interest situation, next week may continue to trade sideways. The top open interest is still the
Nvidia Q2 report bullish, 200 million bro for the fourth time full roll position
Previously:Nvidia earnings preview: Break or the beginning of a big sideways?The $200 million options trader used all his profits to keep buying Nvidia$200 million bro is rolling again, this time $600 millionOne guy started to sell Nvidia call options in mid-March, and because the first roll position (closing an existing contract and opening a new one at the same time) sold 200 million in March, I called it 200 million brother. After that, our 200 million brother will roll every important node, and the roll and roll will become 800 million, and the Q1 income of this brother is sim
Nvidia Q2 report bullish, 200 million bro for the fourth time full roll position
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