A headline crossed today: 25-year-old "Wall Street prodigy" Leopold Aschenbrenner disclosed his fund's holdings. As of March 31st, his reported put options were valued at approximately $8.459 billion — spanning SMH, NVDA, MU, AVGO, AMD, TSM, and others. 13F filings reflect actual holdings at quarter end. Closed positions don't appear. So this report wouldn't include weekly puts. But the list of names feels familiar — and brings me back to some massive put orders we saw in Q1: Israel-Iran conflict: risk fully priced? *100k weekly puts bet NVDA below 170* If you've been following, you'll remember the relentless wave of semiconductor put prints back in
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Bears Are Back! 200k Weekly Puts Short Semis
Bears Are Back! 200k Weekly Puts Short Semis
Bull Steps on the Gas, S&P Headed for 10,000?
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Following the bullish 800 calls, SPY is now seeing a new wave of aggressive long positions — large blocks of deep OTM call options:$SPY 20271217 1095.0 CALL$ $SPY 20271217 1100.0 CALL$ $SPY 20271217 1110.0 CALL$ $SPY 20271217 1120.0 CALL$ . Total premium flow: under $8 million. These December 2027 expiries (1095, 1100, 1110, 1120 strikes) each saw 10,000 contracts opened on Wednesday, direction buys. These calls have deltas below 0.1 — e
Bull Steps on the Gas, S&P Headed for 10,000?
Bears Wave the White Flag (For Now)
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ The large put order $SOXL 20260612 170.0 PUT$ closed faster than expected — marking the end of this round of selling. The bears had hoped to push this down to the 10-day or even 20-day moving average. But dip buyers showed up in force, far outnumbering the panicked sellers. Expect more one-day pullbacks like this in the future — but not necessarily more follow-through. $Sony(SONY)$ Sony's base case: 25. Bull case: 30. On Monday, a 60k contract order hit the July 25 call $SONY 20260717 25.0 CALL$ . Another 9k were add
Bears Wave the White Flag (For Now)
$40 Million Large Order Bets on Near-Term Semi Pullback
SOXL Why near-term? Because this pullback appears carefully orchestrated. On Tuesday, a large bearish order hit the triple-long semiconductor ETF: $SOXL 20260612 170.0 PUT$ — 17,000 contracts, over $40 million in premium. You can gauge conviction by the notional. At $40M+, this isn't a lottery ticket — it's a serious short. Large orders in leveraged ETFs are rare — they decay over time and don't behave well in slow grinding moves. When they show up, it signals an explosive move either way. Expiration is June 12, roughly 30 days out, implying a short, sharp correction — could last a week, maybe two. These trades tend to take profits quickly. So watch the 170 put
$40 Million Large Order Bets on Near-Term Semi Pullback
S&P Will Hit 8,000 — But Anthropic Will Decide the Outcome
$SPY$ S&P 8,000 isn't just a random headline. It's backed by recent positioning — a number of far-dated call options at the 800 strike have seen significant volume: $SPY 20270319 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20260930 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20270617 800.0 CALL$ These were opened at different times: early April, mid-April, and just a couple of days ago. Looking at the expirations, no one expects this to happen overnight — Q3 at the earliest. But at this pace, I wouldn't be surprised if SPY hits 800 by June. The catalyst behind this surge is simple — and I've mentioned it before: Anthropic's revenue da
S&P Will Hit 8,000 — But Anthropic Will Decide the Outcome
It's Time to Check Capex Again
$INTC$ An absolutely absurd rally. I thought recommending sell puts yesterday was aggressive — turns out it was still too conservative. Some large call buys have appeared, like $INTC 20260821 110.0 CALL$ and $INTC 20260618 130.0 CALL$ . That said, judging by the tape, some of those may have been closed by the end of the day. Put strikes are roughly where expected — around 70. Selling puts at that level is fine, or just wait for a pullback. For holders: not every potential pullback requires exiting a position. Some may try to sell high and buy back lower — but this year, that's a great way to get left behind. $NVDA$ Same view as yesterday: range-bound
It's Time to Check Capex Again
Unexpected Earnings Disclosure: OpenAI Roils the Chip Sector
Tonight's price action says it all. The sell-off stems from a rumor about OpenAI's performance — specifically, that the company missed its internal revenue target for the first quarter. That's awkward. Competitors Google and Anthropic are both seeing growth. Only OpenAI is stagnating. If Google and Anthropic fail to deliver results this year, the US market would be looking at a crash far worse than tonight's move. All things considered, tonight's drop isn't that severe. This OpenAI revenue news is essentially a mini-earnings report. Barring surprises, we're likely to see this same dynamic repeat next quarter. On the flip side, we could also see a similar repeat of the Anthropic growth narrative. The biggest issue from OpenAI's miss: the company pre-booked massive data center capacity. If r
Unexpected Earnings Disclosure: OpenAI Roils the Chip Sector
To Chase or Not to Chase
$NVDA$ For the first time in nine months, NVDA looks ready to break into a new range. We're now in the phase of testing the upper bound — expectations point to 225–235. Given NVDA's massive market cap, a 10–20% surge isn't exactly typical. That makes selling puts a more comfortable way to chase the move. The strike depends on your risk tolerance. $AMD$ AMD should hit 400 this year. Pullbacks are good entry points. Right now, the bears are targeting the 5-day moving average at 310 and the gap at 300. If this were last year's market, I'd say AMD would either rally into earnings or hold 330 in a tight range, then pull back post-print — a perfect entry opportunity. But after Intel's earnings, those old rules may not apply. That said, Friday's jump likely priced in much of the upside. So the po
To Chase or Not to Chase
The Market Is Becoming a Meme-Fest
$INTC$ Selling premium in this market is tricky — you never know which stock will catch a hot narrative and get flooded with retail flow. Looking at recent chip earnings, even good expectations aren't enough if the numbers fall short. Intel's earnings should be solid, with full-year guidance likely raised. But some of the run-up is already priced in. Selling puts is still the safer approach — consider the 60 strike $INTC 20260424 60.0 PUT$ . There were quite a few 50-strike puts positioned for a pullback. But given the current CPU hype, 50 will attract strong dip-buying. Most put flow seems to have abandoned the 50 target, shifting focus to the 55–60 range. Earnings could still produce a sell-off. That said, I wouldn't rec
The Market Is Becoming a Meme-Fest
Preparing for Post-Earnings Pullbacks
$NVDA$ You have to admit — 200 is a tough ceiling. This week's institutional spread: sell the 202.5 call $NVDA 20260424 202.5 CALL$ , buy the 207.5 call $NVDA 20260424 207.5 CALL$ . Expecting a broader chip pullback after Intel earnings — that 182.5 put $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$ is still open. That said, NVDA likely stays above 190 this week. $TSLA$ Institutional spread this week: sell the 400 call $TSLA 20260424 400.0 CALL$ , buy the 420 call $TSLA 20260
Preparing for Post-Earnings Pullbacks
Two Large Bearish Orders
ASML and TSMC earnings have essentially set the tone for this earnings season: solid results, but the stock opens lower. A couple of days ago, I mentioned that shorts were stepping in. On Wednesday, the bearish flow intensified, with two large orders in particular catching my attention. $NVDA Buy $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$ — 50k contracts, notional ~$3M. As shown in the chart, institutions were actively buying these 182.5 puts expiring next week in the final minutes of yesterday's session. The implication: unless nothing happens over the weekend, something will. Not necessarily Iran — could be something else. Given how ASML has traded lower post-earnings, the expectation of a pullback to key moving averages seems increasi
Two Large Bearish Orders
After the Bounce, Shorts Step Back In
$VIX$ A large VIX call order hit Tuesday: the 28 strike $VIX 20260519 28.0 CALL$ — 119.6k contracts, $11.48M in premium. A bet of this size implies a sharp, gap-filling move lower in the broader market. In theory, regional conflicts are winding down. The only thing Trump might be missing this time around — compared to 2025 — is that he never got to shout "buy" before the market did it on its own. But triggering a selloff just so he can make a speech? That sounds ridiculous. I'd rather believe someone else has an unknown reason to hedge with volatility. Another less clear VIX call: the 24 strike $VIX 20260722 24.0 CALL$ . The print landed right in the bid-
After the Bounce, Shorts Step Back In
Positioning for Earnings Season
The whole world now believes Trump won't keep fighting, so stocks keep rallying. There's a big difference between actually wanting war and pretending to fight while wanting a deal. As a result, some well-placed insider short positions that were heavily positioned for a crash this week are getting crushed — like the 31.3k contracts of the SMH 405 put for this week $SMH 20260417 405.0 PUT$ . Of course, something else could still happen this week. But looking at the lifecycle of these weekly options, this large order is likely headed to zero — unless Trump drops another "obliteration" tweet. Even then, I think the market would keep rallying. At today's open, a large bullish order hit: the software ETF IGV 90 call
Positioning for Earnings Season
Will the Bullish Trend Continue? & Small Bets, Big Wins in Earnings Season
That's not an easy question to answer. But I checked the two perfectly timed insider large orders — $MU 20260618 400.0 CALL$ and $TSM 20260618 370.0 CALL$ — and neither has been closed. That suggests the trend could continue into earnings season. What's different between Q2 and Q1? Aside from the war, Anthropic announced $30B+ annualized revenue. Unlike OpenAI's verbal bragging, this sharp growth gives the AI sector a real shot in the arm. It won't lift all tech stocks, but it does keep the narrative alive that AI investment can generate strong returns. Anthropic's rapid rise is bad news for the software sector $IGV$, which is trending as weakly as Chin
Will the Bullish Trend Continue? & Small Bets, Big Wins in Earnings Season
Should We Bet on the Rebound?
Looking at the large option flows, after four consecutive up days, the market seems to have thrown in the towel. Sentiment can be broken into a few camps: No More Crash Camp: Short VIX $VIX 20260722 28.0 CALL$ , short SQQQ $SQQQ 20260410 76.5 CALL$ . Sideways Camp: Year-end sell puts on Intel $INTC 20261218 33.0 PUT$ and $INTC 20260918 39.0 PUT$ . Big Range-Bound Until May 1st: Sell put $NVDA 20260501 150.0 PUT$ + sell call
Should We Bet on the Rebound?
$MU$ Micron shorts covered, followed by a $50 million bullish call order. I joked earlier that Trump wanted to buy MU cheap — shorting it hard with big put positions, and that once those puts closed, it might be time to bottom-fish. Turns out that wasn't entirely a joke. On Tuesday's open, two of the most prominent short-dated bearish positions were closed: $MU 20260424 420.0 PUT$ $MU 20260424 400.0 PUT$ $MU 20260424 380.0 PUT$ Then, looking at open interest, a new position emerged: 29,000 contracts of the June 18th 400 call $MU 2026
War? Economy? Trump Just Wants Cheaper Stocks
$NVDA$ I had expected range-bound trading this week. But looking at NVDA's put flow — mostly clustered around 160 — there's a good chance we retest the 60-week MA. Institutional call spread for this week: sell 172.5 call $NVDA 20260402 172.5 CALL$ , buy 180 call $NVDA 20260402 180.0 CALL$ . The sharp sell-off in AI chip names might shake some confidence in demand. But nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just that stocks aren't cheap enough for Trump yet. Once these names get beaten down enough, the Iran-Israel conflict will magically get resolved. Sounds absurd — but check back when MU hits 300. Medium-term call spread rolled down: 180–200 from 190
War? Economy? Trump Just Wants Cheaper Stocks
Earnings Season Preview
$META$ Meta plunged about 8% on Thursday, triggered by an announcement to increase its Texas AI data center investment to $10 billion — the project was previously only $1.5 billion. Isn't this exactly what capital expenditure looks like in earnings reports? And Meta is showing the market that not only will capex not shrink this year, it will keep growing. That explains why Google, Microsoft, and Amazon all sold off along with it. Meanwhile, Apple $AAPL$ held up — sure, iPhone sales expectations are down due to higher hardware costs, but Apple's annual capex is in the tens of billions, not hundreds. Oh, and let's not forget Tesla, the cash-burning heavyweight, so it got dragged down too. Then, as luck would have it, Trump also felt the market hadn't dropped enough. Geopolitics plus AI spend
Earnings Season Preview
Trump: "Since You're Here Anyway"
At Thursday's open, Trump remarked that he expected stocks to fall harder. Shortly after, the market slid sharply and tested the previous low. What I took from that: the stocks he wants to buy haven't dropped enough. If I had to guess which one? Micron. No hard evidence — just a gut feeling. So maybe when MU hits 300, it's time to bottom-fish. Not because memory demand is broken — it's not. Just that the President isn't in the car yet. A lot of long positions opened Wednesday are now looking like left-hand entries. $NVDA$ The floor is 170. Wednesday saw a large sell put order on the April 10th 170 strike $NVDA 20260410 170.0 PUT$ — 27k contracts. Translation: no matter how volatile the next two weeks get, the expectation
Trump: "Since You're Here Anyway"
Trump Goes TACO, Market Reacts & Major Block Trades
Most of Friday's options flow was hedge-driven — nothing too notable. But two trades stood out: Sell 180 Call $XOM 20260618 180.0 CALL$ — 34.4k contracts, $12.03M notional. Buy 55 Put $XLE 20260618 55.0 PUT$ — 35k contracts, $5.04M notional. So someone was already short energy on Friday. Then Monday came, Trump rolled out TACO, and oil cratered. But here's the catch: XOM and XLE ripped higher and hit new highs anyway. Maybe that's why expiry was six months out — TACO fired the starting gun, but oil is supposed to slide over the first half. The consensus now: one more leg down. Still, early bullish flow is starting to surface. $MU$ Memory demand is struc
Trump Goes TACO, Market Reacts & Major Block Trades
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