Yesterday Biden expressed confidence that he would show results in fighting inflation. I thought CPI had to fall to the 5.xx%. As a result, CPI in February was unchanged as expected at 6.0 percent and core was also unchanged at 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, it was slightly higher, at 0.5%.There is a long way to go in the fight against inflation, and a quarter-point rise cannot be missed.$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ Source of titleclosed $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ ​roll $XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT$

TL;DR: Next week's SPY trading range: 590-580.The title is a joke - I think it's unfair to blame Powell for the plunge.Wall Street is playing innocent by putting all blame on the old man. This plunge wasn't exactly unexpected; it had been brewing for a while. Institutions had been selling NVIDIA calls for two weeks at 140, waiting for a pullback since early December - they just needed an excuse for the plunge.The upcoming president's preferences are crystal clear - whoever triggers a stock market crash would be seen as opposing the future president.As usual, the FOMC meeting became the convenient trigger for the market selloff. Wall Street is using this opportunity for market correction, and after the adjustment, growth will resume its normal pattern.Regarding specific policies, the dot pl

On Friday, the triple witching day, VIX maintained high levels at market open.Tesla dropped by 6% in pre-market trading, making many eager for a bottom to start buying. However, lower-than-expected PCE data helped stabilize market sentiment. Despite being triple witching day, put option activity suggests bears aren't making big bets. Wednesday's steep decline likely won't repeat; focus should be on next week. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY saw many long-dated sell calls opened Thursday, with 2026 expiration strikes above 750, which isn't particularly relevant for current trading decisions.The most notable put option activity shows a clear range, with the top two positions being part of a large order suggesting SPY may gradually approach 577

1 $Alcoa(AA)$ reasons for the rise similar to Macy's acquisition drive department store sector. I have been watching the trend of the metal sector since Nippon Steel announced its acquisition of $U.S. Steel(X)$ , and then I waited for this big 8000 lot CALL option order $AA 20240216 40.0 CALL$ . But as a rule of thumb, a large call order is 50-50, so I'd still go with the sell put: $AA 20240119 33.0 PUT$ 2 $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ The bears have finally struck, 20,000 lots of big PUT orders

After more than a month of sideways, bulls and bears are impatient, Powell is also impatient, even said to speed up the pace of rate hikes, so the March rate hike probability of 50 basis points into 70%. ​Yesterday's article mentioned that there are two opinions in the market:Ultra-hawkish rate hike: 50 basis point rate hike probability in MarchDovish: The Fed can live with 3% if inflation doesn't fall quickly to 2%.Before yesterday, the market favored 2 more than 1.At the start of the year, the consensus was for a longer rate rise, not a higher one. There is a consensus that inflation cannot fall quickly, but there is a sense that rate rises need to be gradual and Mr Powell is unlikely to reverse his plan for gradual quarter-point increases. If inflation cannot come down quickly, the Fed'

Here's how this bizarre option strategy was discovered: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ soared last week on bank earnings, but I didn't see a significant move in JPM options, which I shouldn't have. Then I checked the move in the $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ :$XLF 20230421 33.5 CALL$ Institutions placed 10, 000 lots of near-term options expiring next week on the day before the JPM's earnings report, closed the next day and doubled the price at a rough estimate. It's a list you can't find unless you keep an eye on it.It can be seen that in some significant volatility on the institutions prefer to use ETF options trading. W

mark 3 option transactions, all of which are sell call: $TQQQ 20240419 70.0 CALL$ $SOXL 20240517 50.0 CALL$ $SOXL 20240816 70.0 CALL$ TQQQ sell exercise price 70 I can understand. An out-of-the-money option on delta 0.2 equates to a monthly price move of less than 16%, and the leveraged ETF will fall faster if it moves sideways or down.The SOXL sell ATM call is a little harder to understand, though. Selling at-the-money call options on leveraged ETFs is similar to being bearish, and if chip stocks don't rise, the market has a high probability of a correction.If there are signs of a pull

I have bad news and good news about the recent pullback in the market.The bad news is that big orders have been put in and institutions have really started shorting.The good news is to put the spread bearish, but the downside is limited.Institutional short strategies have generally been less aggressive this year than last, with the exception of banks. In the strategy design belongs to the relaxed state, the price drop is the best, if the price does not fall, there is no loss. So while there's very little upside right now, there's not a lot of downside, especially in the heavily weighted tech stocks.Personally, I think we can give up small-cap stocks to some extent this year. Comparing $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ to $Micr

The market has been rescued by Nvidia again. Although the strong financial results, Nvidia stock prices opened higher and lower, poor performance, leading technology stocks fell. If Nvidia misses expectations, expect the market to repeat last September's post-Jackson Hole performance.But before the FOMC meeting on September 21, the market could face another free-for-all.The agency is split on Apple. The market is hedging, with bullish institutions choosing to sell ITM put options $AAPL 20230908 180.0 PUT$ and bearish institutions being more aggressive and buying OTM options directly $AAPL 20230929 145.0 PUT$ .老虎pc端The tw

In keeping with the old "sell in May" tradition, May is the month to find some reason to sell. This year, you don't have to look for a reason. Treasury bonds, inflation, interest rate hikes and recession are all big, scary names, and anyone who pulls them knows that May is a bad month to own. After all, these topics have been played out in the media for a long time.So let's pick a few typical growth stocks and see how institutions are holding positions.sell $PLTR 20230512 7.5 PUT$From Tiger pcsell $CVNA 20230519 10.0 PUT$sell $ABNB 20230616 12

A: Short term, these two weeksAs we all know, US stocks often pull back during Chinese holidays, which is an old tradition. However, given the current put and sell call layouts, the callbacks are fairly short. Because from the temporary large single layout, bears do not intend to be bearish for a long time, and almost earn a time value and leave.Apple:The large order I shared last week can be seen that the institutions are around the July 7 expiration date layout. After all, the non-farm data released on July 7 and the CPI released on July 12, from Powell's attitude, he particularly hopes that the market will cash in the expectation of adding 50 basis points on this day or 12th. So the bulls are understandably subdued.So the question is, what's going on with the

Apple's new vision pro was a shock beyond words, and I didn't think I'd live to see another technological revolution. It was no surprise that Apple's share price hit a new high, and then fell back. After Nvidia, Apple became the second stock to break through the pre-crash high, and a correction after the high is normal.For now, Microsoft should be the third stock to hit an all-time high. The first thing the technological revolution changes before it changes lives is the flow of money. Who would have thought this year would be... A bull market?I think that with the potential shown by vision pro, Apple is difficult to continue to pull back, may be the same as Nvidia's option language, there is a small outbreak of technology stocks in July, I guess, the follow-up to the option order verificat

Speaking at the ECB's annual forum on Thursday, Powell did not rule out a series of rate hikes. "The only thing we decided was not to raise rates at the June meeting... You know, I wouldn't rule out doing it in successive meetings." "The committee clearly believes that there is more work to be done and that more rate hikes may be appropriate."Now, the market expects that the Federal Reserve has an 80% probability of raising interest rates in July, and the probability of a second rate hike is 50%, which can be said that the market has fully digested the expectation of two rate hikes.That's not my judgment, that's the judgment of the agency:sell $AAPL 20230714 190.0 PUT$sell put, 8,000 lots, and the strike

Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell $XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$buy $XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe

Last week was the fourth week of June. From the overall situation of option transactions, many institutions began to purposefully layout July weekly options. After all, there are big events every week in July: nonfarm in week 1, CPI in Week 2, the start of earnings season in week 3, and FOMC in week 4. From the perspective of the weekly option opening situation, the institution as a whole tends to be optimistic, of course, the most optimistic is Nvidia:buy $NVDA 20230630 450.0 CALL$I thought I was dazzled when I saw this big order. Two million, 10,000 lots. Options expire this week.The last time I vaguely remember seeing a big option order like this was at Tesla. $M