Yesterday Biden expressed confidence that he would show results in fighting inflation. I thought CPI had to fall to the 5.xx%. As a result, CPI in February was unchanged as expected at 6.0 percent and core was also unchanged at 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, it was slightly higher, at 0.5%.There is a long way to go in the fight against inflation, and a quarter-point rise cannot be missed.$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ Source of titleclosed $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ ​roll $XLF 20230616 28.0 PUT$

1 $Alcoa(AA)$ reasons for the rise similar to Macy's acquisition drive department store sector. I have been watching the trend of the metal sector since Nippon Steel announced its acquisition of $U.S. Steel(X)$ , and then I waited for this big 8000 lot CALL option order $AA 20240216 40.0 CALL$ . But as a rule of thumb, a large call order is 50-50, so I'd still go with the sell put: $AA 20240119 33.0 PUT$ 2 $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ The bears have finally struck, 20,000 lots of big PUT orders

$NVDA$ First glance at the flows and one thing's clear — 170 is the line. The 170 put for March 6 expiry just printed 238k contracts. At this size, whether buy or sell, it's gonna act as a magnet. But it also means breaking below 170 is gonna be tough. So back to the usual: 170–195 chop. Next week's institutional call spread? Sell 192.5 $NVDA 20260306 192.5 CALL$ , hedge with 200 $NVDA 20260306 200.0 CALL$ . And the put sales keep stacking: $ORCL 20260306 130.0 PUT$  — 48k opened$SMH 20260306 355.0 PUT$  — 62k opened<

After more than a month of sideways, bulls and bears are impatient, Powell is also impatient, even said to speed up the pace of rate hikes, so the March rate hike probability of 50 basis points into 70%. ​Yesterday's article mentioned that there are two opinions in the market:Ultra-hawkish rate hike: 50 basis point rate hike probability in MarchDovish: The Fed can live with 3% if inflation doesn't fall quickly to 2%.Before yesterday, the market favored 2 more than 1.At the start of the year, the consensus was for a longer rate rise, not a higher one. There is a consensus that inflation cannot fall quickly, but there is a sense that rate rises need to be gradual and Mr Powell is unlikely to reverse his plan for gradual quarter-point increases. If inflation cannot come down quickly, the Fed'

NVDA's earnings event was priced like a macro print — and it traded like one too. FOMC-style: sell the headline, maybe bounce the next day. NVDA? We'll see. Early flow doesn’t look great. A bearish position opened: 10k April 2nd 160 puts $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Notional: ~$2M. April 2nd rings a bell. Last year’s tariff shock. This trade might not just be about earnings — macro’s in the driver’s seat. Iran, tariffs, China. Any of these could move markets. Even with macro hanging overhead, I still think NVDA is a sell-the-dip name. Could be a chop year. Range still looks 170–195. Unless Trump does something stupid — then all bets are off. This year is setup for a brutal bull-bear fight. Core question: where does the mon

Here's how this bizarre option strategy was discovered: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ soared last week on bank earnings, but I didn't see a significant move in JPM options, which I shouldn't have. Then I checked the move in the $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ :$XLF 20230421 33.5 CALL$ Institutions placed 10, 000 lots of near-term options expiring next week on the day before the JPM's earnings report, closed the next day and doubled the price at a rough estimate. It's a list you can't find unless you keep an eye on it.It can be seen that in some significant volatility on the institutions prefer to use ETF options trading. W