Views are my own. Broad macro thoughts. Not investment advice. Last year FX was driven by two huge macroeconomic shifts. Terms of Trade divergence and Rate Divergence. The sudden removal of Russian and Ukrainian commodities from some markets created a world of the Have’s and the Have Not’s. Those that had access to the core commodities the world needed – US, Australia, Canada and Norway – and those that didn’t: Europe, Japan, and UK. The Have’s received a boost from the increased demand for their exports whilst the Have Not’s were pressured by higher prices for key inputs. The result was not just a divergence in terms of trade but an additional divergence in rates as the Have’s tightened monetary policy quickly to calm their booming economies. Meanwhile the Have Not’s had to be more cautio