December core CPI cooled to 2.6% YoY, the lowest in four years. Yet markets barely reacted. That silence matters 👀 It signals this phase is no longer about inflation prints alone. It is about confidence, and whether growth and jobs soften enough to force the Fed's hand. With June now priced as the earliest cut, the risk is that higher for longer stretches further than portfolios expect ⚠️. What would actually shift expectations? Likely a clearer rollover in wage growth, softer non-farm payrolls, or visible cracks in services and housing. Until then, expect choppy markets and selective leadership, not a broad rally. In US financials, rate-sensitive banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs may consolidate after strong runs rather than surge. Healthcare tends to hold up w

For decades, memory stocks like Micron were classic cyclicals, trapped in vicious boom-bust loops fueled by fleeting PC/smartphone demand. Oversupply killed margins fast, and rallies always faded. That's changing permanently. The Structural Shift No One Saw Coming AI data centers have flipped the script on memory demand: • HBM is now the critical bottleneck for AI GPUs—essential, not optional • Only three companies can supply at scale: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung • Hyperscalers are locking in multi-year contracts, killing spot-market volatility • Capacity additions are measured and deliberate—lessons learned from past pain This is why Micron can hit new all-time highs around $319 in early 2026 (up ~10% in a single session Jan 2) after an explosive 2025, instead of crashing like old cycl

The dawn of 2026 brought a flicker of optimism to Wall Street as U.S. stock markets kicked off the new year with modest gains, defying the sluggish first-day trends of recent years. On January 2, the first trading day of the year, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a small advance, closing up 0.19% at 6,858.47 points after touching intraday highs that suggested a more robust 0.7% rise earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, flirted with stronger momentum, surging as much as 1.5% intraday—but ultimately dipped 0.03% to end at 23,235.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared better, climbing 0.66% to 48,382.39, providing a steady anchor amid the volatility. This performance marks a subtle reversal from the pattern of the past three years, where the S&P 500 started

Tesla is heading into Q4 delivery results with expectations already reset lower, and that matters more than the headline number. 📊 The Hard Numbers (What the Market Is Pricing In) Q4 2025 consensus deliveries (median): ~420,400 vehicles Mean estimate: ~422,850 vehicles This implies year-on-year delivery decline for the second consecutive year Tesla shares are already ~8–10% off recent highs, suggesting expectations are no longer euphoric In other words, this is not a blowout expectations quarter—but it may not need to be. 🧠 Why a Miss May Not Break the Stock Tesla is no longer traded purely as an auto company. Investors are increasingly focused on: Autonomy and robotaxi optionality AI compute and inference scale Optimus and long-cycle robotics monetization Margin stabilization vs deli

Baidu's recent rally is not just a short-term headline move. It reflects something deeper that the market has long underestimated. While Alibaba and Tencent dominate consumer ecosystems, Baidu has quietly built the most vertically integrated AI stack in China: chips, models, cloud infrastructure, and now real-world deployment through robotaxis. That matters. The AI Loop Advantage The real winners in AI will not be those with the flashiest models, but those who can close the AI loop: Data → Model → Deployment → Feedback → Better Data Baidu is one of the few Chinese players already doing this at scale. Apollo robotaxis generate real-world driving data. That data feeds Baidu’s models. Those models improve deployment efficiency — lowering unit economics over time. This mirrors Google's early s

2025 was not a year that rewarded bravado. It rewarded awareness. Markets moved between political shocks, AI acceleration, tariff fears, and liquidity pivots — often violently, often without warning. What stood out most was not how fast prices moved, but how quickly narratives broke when price stopped confirming them. My biggest progress this year did not come from finding better entries. It came from learning to exit earlier, size smaller, and pause more often. Some trades paid me. Others reminded me that hope is not a strategy. If I had to summarise my 2025 investment journey in one sentence, it would be this: “I stopped trying to predict outcomes and focused instead on managing risk when outcomes surprised me.” That mindset shift changed how I review charts, how I hold positions, and ho

As we head into the final stretch of 2025, markets feel restless. Volatility has picked up, rallies fade faster, and every headline seems to question whether the Santa Rally still exists. But stepping back, this does not feel like panic. It feels like transition. After a strong year driven by rate cuts, AI momentum, and returning liquidity, markets are no longer pricing upside blindly. Instead, they are digesting gains, resetting positions, and waiting for clarity. That is why December has been choppy rather than directional. Several forces are colliding at once: Thin year-end liquidity amplifying moves Heavy options positioning influencing daily price action Global macro uncertainty lingering, especially around policy shifts This creates an environment where price behaviour matters more t

Tesla just printed a new all-time closing high, and the question traders are quietly asking is no longer Why is TSLA going up?  but What assumptions are now priced in? At these levels, Tesla is no longer trading as a car company. It is being valued as a platform bet on autonomy, robotics, and AI-driven operating leverage. That distinction matters. 📈 Why Tesla Keeps Pushing Higher This rally is not purely momentum-driven. Several structural narratives are reinforcing price: Autonomy optionality: Updates around robotaxis and Optimus are reviving long-dated growth assumptions Liquidity tailwinds: Risk appetite remains strong despite macro noise Positioning: Shorts and underweight funds continue to get squeezed on strength Price action tells the story clearly: dips are being bought quickl

Yesterday's action was messy on the surface, but very informative underneath. Tech weakness, crypto volatility, and rotation headlines made it feel chaotic, yet this is exactly the kind of tape where pick quality matters more than bravado. 🧠 Big Picture: What's Really Driving Markets? Rates & Macro: Bond yields remain the boss. Until yields decisively roll over, high-beta names will stay jumpy. Crypto: BTC weakness is pressuring proxies, but this still looks like distribution → reset, not a structural breakdown. Rotation: Capital is moving within risk assets, not fleeing the market entirely. This is not an all-in or all-out market. It is a range + reaction market. 📌 What I'm Watching (and How) 🟢 Watching / Tactical Exposure NVDA – Still the market's risk barometer. I prefer selling pre

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$   As 2025 winds down, it feels like the right moment to step back and be honest about the trades that defined the year for me, not just the wins, but the ones that tested discipline, patience, and ego. This was a year where markets rewarded timing and punished complacency. AI mania, crypto euphoria, sudden macro shifts, and violent rotations made it impossible to coast. You either managed risk actively, or the market managed you. Here are my two most memorable trades of 2025, for very different reasons: The Best Trade: Selling MSTR Before the Drop My most memorable win this year was not a flashy multi-bagger. It was selling MSTR before it rolled over. MSTR had become one of the most crowded expressions of Bitcoin optimis

Trump's approval for Nvidia to resume H200 sales to China has injected fresh energy into a cooling AI sector. The after hours bounce was small, but the signal was big. This is the first real policy break in months, and traders now have a clear catalyst to anchor short term direction. Below is the clean breakdown of how the market may trade Nvidia in the coming sessions. 1. Why This Catalyst Matters China demand was never the issue. Policy blockage was. H200 carries higher margins and stronger upgrade cycles than the previous A series chips. Data center budgets for 2025 are still expanding, not contracting. The approval lowers headline risk and reduces fear premium in the entire AI basket. T

The BTC rebound has created a clean risk-on ripple across the crypto equity basket, and the moves in BMNR, CRCL and MSTR hint that positioning might have reached exhaustion on the downside. What matters now is the path of liquidity. If BTC holds above the 89K to 92K range, the next impulse zone opens toward 97K, with a potential late December test of 100K if volatility compresses. BMNR continues to trade as a leveraged beta play to BTC strength. A break above its recent lower-high structure points to 40 to 45 in a squeeze scenario. CRCL is still one of the cleanest AI x crypto infrastructure names. If BTC pushes for 95K, CRCL could retest the 12 to 14 zone as funding flows rotate back into high convexity names. MSTR remains the institutional torque for BTC. As long as BTC sustains higher l