Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609 (MESmain)

MESmain (Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609)

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{"futures":{"categoryId":"FT_CA_Equity_Index","contractCode":"MESmain","contractId":"756801a759e34e81be7565d922e012e1","contractMonth":"","currency":"USD","currencyName":"USD","deliveryMode":"Cash","description":{"productAlias":"Micro S&P 500","productExchangeUrl":"https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/micro-e-mini-sandp-500_contract_specifications.html","productPriceIncrement":"0.25 per index point ( US$1.25 )","productScale":"US$5 USD per index point","productTradingMonth":"4 nearest quarterly months (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec)","productTradingTime":"17:00（T-1）-16:00","productType":"Equity Index","productWorth":"US$5 USD per index point","worth":5},"exchangeCode":"CME","exchangeId":"FT_EX_CME","firstNoticeDate":"","firstNoticeDateTimestamp":0,"hasVWAP":false,"isContinuous":false,"isMain":true,"isOmnibusTrade":true,"isTrade":true,"lastTradingDate":"","lastTradingDateTimestamp":0,"multiplier":{"offset":0,"value":5},"name":"Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609","overnightSupported":false,"productId":"FT_PD_MES_FUT","productPriceConfig":{"displayMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1},"maxScale":2,"priceIncrements":[{"displayPriceIncrement":{"offset":2,"value":25},"priceLowerLimit":{"offset":0,"value":0},"priceUpperLimit":{"offset":0,"value":0}}],"quotesScale":{"offset":2,"value":1},"quotesVendorMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1},"tradeMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1}},"quotesDisplayType":"Simple","securityType":"FUT","status":"Online","symbol":"MES","symbolId":"FT_SY_MES","symbolName":"Micro E-mini S&P 500"},"tab":"news","tweetList":[{"objectId":603030082220192,"type":1,"entity":{"id":603030082220192,"gmtCreate":1788254926328,"gmtModify":1788266111962,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Why Sell Puts Still Make Sense Now — And the Big Opportunity Brewing in Equities","htmlText":"The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are","listText":"The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are","text":"The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41dda8e3164899c3d578a1b48276663c"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0e16eaca9992e1b938f85ba0917562fd"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82e8e040b8f80b4152312de1f8f5f2e8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":689,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":23,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/603030082220192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000337","authorId":"9000000000000337","name":"bingoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c065267febaa7f90a2c347c9360e4b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000337","authorIdStr":"9000000000000337"},"content":"VIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect","text":"VIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect","html":"VIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect"}],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000337","authorId":"9000000000000337","name":"bingoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c065267febaa7f90a2c347c9360e4b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000337","authorIdStr":"9000000000000337"},"content":"VIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect","text":"VIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect","html":"VIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect"}],"streamModify":1788266111962,"id":603030082220192,"gmtCreate":1788254926328,"gmtModify":1788266111962,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Why Sell Puts Still Make Sense Now — And the Big Opportunity Brewing in Equities","htmlText":"The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are","listText":"The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are","text":"The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41dda8e3164899c3d578a1b48276663c"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0e16eaca9992e1b938f85ba0917562fd"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82e8e040b8f80b4152312de1f8f5f2e8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":689,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":23,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/603030082220192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":15,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":602674270511232,"type":1,"entity":{"id":602674270511232,"gmtCreate":1788167971868,"gmtModify":1788168427031,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Gold’s Correction Arrived as Expected—Will 4,000 Hold as Support?","htmlText":"Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike","listText":"Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike","text":"Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d271f024443f9d581faeb4d3b56d216c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/602674270511232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000529","authorId":"9000000000000529","name":"JudithGrant","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709638153318cdfce2439b29cba43798","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000529","authorIdStr":"9000000000000529"},"content":"Friday payrolls is the real trigger here. If jobs come in hot, 4000 probably cracks before it holds — are you watching real yields more than the level?","text":"Friday payrolls is the real trigger here. If jobs come in hot, 4000 probably cracks before it holds — are you watching real yields more than the level?","html":"Friday payrolls is the real trigger here. If jobs come in hot, 4000 probably cracks before it holds — are you watching real yields more than the level?"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000650","authorId":"9000000000000650","name":"ClarenceNehemiah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fee988f6e6e3c043a31a7e8992655c4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000650","authorIdStr":"9000000000000650"},"content":"4000 probably holds near term. I care more about central bank buying than one hawkish speech lol","text":"4000 probably holds near term. I care more about central bank buying than one hawkish speech lol","html":"4000 probably holds near term. I care more about central bank buying than one hawkish speech lol"}],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000529","authorId":"9000000000000529","name":"JudithGrant","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709638153318cdfce2439b29cba43798","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000529","authorIdStr":"9000000000000529"},"content":"Friday payrolls is the real trigger here. If jobs come in hot, 4000 probably cracks before it holds — are you watching real yields more than the level?","text":"Friday payrolls is the real trigger here. If jobs come in hot, 4000 probably cracks before it holds — are you watching real yields more than the level?","html":"Friday payrolls is the real trigger here. If jobs come in hot, 4000 probably cracks before it holds — are you watching real yields more than the level?"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000650","authorId":"9000000000000650","name":"ClarenceNehemiah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fee988f6e6e3c043a31a7e8992655c4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000650","authorIdStr":"9000000000000650"},"content":"4000 probably holds near term. I care more about central bank buying than one hawkish speech lol","text":"4000 probably holds near term. I care more about central bank buying than one hawkish speech lol","html":"4000 probably holds near term. I care more about central bank buying than one hawkish speech lol"}],"streamModify":1788168427031,"id":602674270511232,"gmtCreate":1788167971868,"gmtModify":1788168427031,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Gold’s Correction Arrived as Expected—Will 4,000 Hold as Support?","htmlText":"Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike","listText":"Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike","text":"Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d271f024443f9d581faeb4d3b56d216c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/602674270511232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":602811705636352,"type":1,"entity":{"id":602811705636352,"gmtCreate":1788167567316,"gmtModify":1788168587894,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus: Will Gold Hold as Equity Indices Reassess?","htmlText":"Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%","listText":"Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%","text":"Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4333b14b2bdaa25e8bfb18f30d201e7a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/602811705636352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1788168587894,"id":602811705636352,"gmtCreate":1788167567316,"gmtModify":1788168587894,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus: Will Gold Hold as Equity Indices Reassess?","htmlText":"Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%","listText":"Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%","text":"Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4333b14b2bdaa25e8bfb18f30d201e7a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/602811705636352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":601592444264576,"type":1,"entity":{"id":601592444264576,"gmtCreate":1787903854132,"gmtModify":1787909604529,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market","htmlText":"Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: &gt;&gt;&gt; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/m/live/1874497396396122/?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221874497396396122%22%2C%22type%22%3A1%7D\">Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market</a> Next, I will summarize the key information and","listText":"Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: &gt;&gt;&gt; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/m/live/1874497396396122/?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221874497396396122%22%2C%22type%22%3A1%7D\">Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market</a> Next, I will summarize the key information and","text":"Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market Next, I will summarize the key information and","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf8fdfc74bc72a6c304b182f596db26"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/080c6c7fd710ed9868d21721ec475956"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f3bfad4ff4be5fab4b05237ed19714"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":99,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/601592444264576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000415","authorId":"9000000000000415","name":"zuzu99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee73f2c992a647da3546f67241e0cdf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000415","authorIdStr":"9000000000000415"},"content":"Calling Treasury futures low-threshold feels a bit too clean. CME margin, slippage, and overnight risk are exactly what chew up smaller accounts.","text":"Calling Treasury futures low-threshold feels a bit too clean. CME margin, slippage, and overnight risk are exactly what chew up smaller accounts.","html":"Calling Treasury futures low-threshold feels a bit too clean. CME margin, slippage, and overnight risk are exactly what chew up smaller accounts."}],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000415","authorId":"9000000000000415","name":"zuzu99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee73f2c992a647da3546f67241e0cdf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000415","authorIdStr":"9000000000000415"},"content":"Calling Treasury futures low-threshold feels a bit too clean. CME margin, slippage, and overnight risk are exactly what chew up smaller accounts.","text":"Calling Treasury futures low-threshold feels a bit too clean. CME margin, slippage, and overnight risk are exactly what chew up smaller accounts.","html":"Calling Treasury futures low-threshold feels a bit too clean. CME margin, slippage, and overnight risk are exactly what chew up smaller accounts."}],"streamModify":1787909604529,"id":601592444264576,"gmtCreate":1787903854132,"gmtModify":1787909604529,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market","htmlText":"Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: &gt;&gt;&gt; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/m/live/1874497396396122/?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221874497396396122%22%2C%22type%22%3A1%7D\">Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market</a> Next, I will summarize the key information and","listText":"Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: &gt;&gt;&gt; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/m/live/1874497396396122/?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221874497396396122%22%2C%22type%22%3A1%7D\">Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market</a> Next, I will summarize the key information and","text":"Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market Next, I will summarize the key information and","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf8fdfc74bc72a6c304b182f596db26"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/080c6c7fd710ed9868d21721ec475956"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f3bfad4ff4be5fab4b05237ed19714"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":99,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/601592444264576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":601287176208512,"type":1,"entity":{"id":601287176208512,"gmtCreate":1787829325798,"gmtModify":1787885742738,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Valuation Watch：The US Equity Rally Faces a Test? Diverging Flows and Uneven M7 Valuations","htmlText":"This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction","listText":"This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction","text":"This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/952c6ed3caa9202c4441ce0b84e52b5d"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba61666d22e59c624f28c3e609ce1172"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ee941b61dccfff97c0d66115097e86e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":204,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/601287176208512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000188","authorId":"9000000000000188","name":"breezyk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b825594fd9f6564afaeb0c6022e3f71a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000188","authorIdStr":"9000000000000188"},"content":"For Nvidia, I care less about revenue and more about whether free cash flow is actually keeping up with capex. If that slips, the valuation debate gets way tougher.","text":"For Nvidia, I care less about revenue and more about whether free cash flow is actually keeping up with capex. If that slips, the valuation debate gets way tougher.","html":"For Nvidia, I care less about revenue and more about whether free cash flow is actually keeping up with capex. If that slips, the valuation debate gets way tougher."}],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000188","authorId":"9000000000000188","name":"breezyk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b825594fd9f6564afaeb0c6022e3f71a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000188","authorIdStr":"9000000000000188"},"content":"For Nvidia, I care less about revenue and more about whether free cash flow is actually keeping up with capex. If that slips, the valuation debate gets way tougher.","text":"For Nvidia, I care less about revenue and more about whether free cash flow is actually keeping up with capex. If that slips, the valuation debate gets way tougher.","html":"For Nvidia, I care less about revenue and more about whether free cash flow is actually keeping up with capex. If that slips, the valuation debate gets way tougher."}],"streamModify":1787885742738,"id":601287176208512,"gmtCreate":1787829325798,"gmtModify":1787885742738,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Valuation Watch：The US Equity Rally Faces a Test? Diverging Flows and Uneven M7 Valuations","htmlText":"This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction","listText":"This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction","text":"This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/952c6ed3caa9202c4441ce0b84e52b5d"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba61666d22e59c624f28c3e609ce1172"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ee941b61dccfff97c0d66115097e86e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":204,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/601287176208512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":600798942007440,"type":1,"entity":{"id":600798942007440,"gmtCreate":1787710208576,"gmtModify":1787715053857,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Buybacks, Jackson Hole, and the Key Trend Every Trader Must Watch","htmlText":"This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to","listText":"This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to","text":"This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5ddad5c0f6f159a6a5a47fdf0c23b92"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a8dcc77eda6b5fb8c3a283d89e944f72"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37819a3671803df98c61c8d344c6190d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":208,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":15,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600798942007440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000412","authorId":"9000000000000412","name":"bubblyo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a6d90cbff3ceab2e34f58c7b8e0271f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000412","authorIdStr":"9000000000000412"},"content":"Debt maturity swap is the key point here. Inflation expectations may react in messier ways than the market is pricing, especially if the curve starts steepening again","text":"Debt maturity swap is the key point here. Inflation expectations may react in messier ways than the market is pricing, especially if the curve starts steepening again","html":"Debt maturity swap is the key point here. Inflation expectations may react in messier ways than the market is pricing, especially if the curve starts steepening again"}],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000412","authorId":"9000000000000412","name":"bubblyo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a6d90cbff3ceab2e34f58c7b8e0271f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000412","authorIdStr":"9000000000000412"},"content":"Debt maturity swap is the key point here. Inflation expectations may react in messier ways than the market is pricing, especially if the curve starts steepening again","text":"Debt maturity swap is the key point here. Inflation expectations may react in messier ways than the market is pricing, especially if the curve starts steepening again","html":"Debt maturity swap is the key point here. Inflation expectations may react in messier ways than the market is pricing, especially if the curve starts steepening again"}],"streamModify":1787715053857,"id":600798942007440,"gmtCreate":1787710208576,"gmtModify":1787715053857,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Buybacks, Jackson Hole, and the Key Trend Every Trader Must Watch","htmlText":"This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to","listText":"This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to","text":"This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5ddad5c0f6f159a6a5a47fdf0c23b92"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a8dcc77eda6b5fb8c3a283d89e944f72"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37819a3671803df98c61c8d344c6190d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":208,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":15,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600798942007440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":600681133774336,"type":1,"entity":{"id":600681133774336,"gmtCreate":1787647408170,"gmtModify":1787657708148,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Why I Think Going Long U.S. Stocks and Gold Ahead of Jackson Hole Isn't a Good Idea","htmlText":"I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&amp;P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&amp;P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. $标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0efc496fc72032cf894e9454e5db7f"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/945ca51c4da5703a2b462ffc3ec663f0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2f2db27f25bac4fb0e15bacb9be97edc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":159,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600681133774336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4230126467342542","authorId":"4230126467342542","name":"Ancient One","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4230126467342542","authorIdStr":"4230126467342542"},"content":"Long on stock != long on gold != long on miners TGA funds doesn't means fund sitting in any account. Its fund generated by ... drum rolls... selling of bonds ... Why would someone sell a bond and buy a different one ... well, only if the terms are better .. treasury buy back per month - $4 billion Treasury bond sales per month - $800 billion Treasury outstanding (debts) - $40 trillion Treasury interest per year - more than gdp of USA and more than a trillion Fed can at most raise 25 points before they cause problem for treasury Walsh will do what he has been doing, stay deliberately vague, market will continue what is has been doing.. play the news whichever way the big whales 🐋 wants ..","text":"Long on stock != long on gold != long on miners TGA funds doesn't means fund sitting in any account. Its fund generated by ... drum rolls... selling of bonds ... Why would someone sell a bond and buy a different one ... well, only if the terms are better .. treasury buy back per month - $4 billion Treasury bond sales per month - $800 billion Treasury outstanding (debts) - $40 trillion Treasury interest per year - more than gdp of USA and more than a trillion Fed can at most raise 25 points before they cause problem for treasury Walsh will do what he has been doing, stay deliberately vague, market will continue what is has been doing.. play the news whichever way the big whales 🐋 wants ..","html":"Long on stock != long on gold != long on miners TGA funds doesn't means fund sitting in any account. Its fund generated by ... drum rolls... selling of bonds ... Why would someone sell a bond and buy a different one ... well, only if the terms are better .. treasury buy back per month - $4 billion Treasury bond sales per month - $800 billion Treasury outstanding (debts) - $40 trillion Treasury interest per year - more than gdp of USA and more than a trillion Fed can at most raise 25 points before they cause problem for treasury Walsh will do what he has been doing, stay deliberately vague, market will continue what is has been doing.. play the news whichever way the big whales 🐋 wants .."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000435","authorId":"9000000000000435","name":"OwenBess","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd67ba4a6ca5ca66b27af6afcce989dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000435","authorIdStr":"9000000000000435"},"content":"Weekly RSI divergence matters more here, not just the 20dma. If that confirms after Jackson Hole, first week of September probably gets uglier fast","text":"Weekly RSI divergence matters more here, not just the 20dma. If that confirms after Jackson Hole, first week of September probably gets uglier fast","html":"Weekly RSI divergence matters more here, not just the 20dma. If that confirms after Jackson Hole, first week of September probably gets uglier fast"}],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4230126467342542","authorId":"4230126467342542","name":"Ancient One","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4230126467342542","authorIdStr":"4230126467342542"},"content":"Long on stock != long on gold != long on miners TGA funds doesn't means fund sitting in any account. Its fund generated by ... drum rolls... selling of bonds ... Why would someone sell a bond and buy a different one ... well, only if the terms are better .. treasury buy back per month - $4 billion Treasury bond sales per month - $800 billion Treasury outstanding (debts) - $40 trillion Treasury interest per year - more than gdp of USA and more than a trillion Fed can at most raise 25 points before they cause problem for treasury Walsh will do what he has been doing, stay deliberately vague, market will continue what is has been doing.. play the news whichever way the big whales 🐋 wants ..","text":"Long on stock != long on gold != long on miners TGA funds doesn't means fund sitting in any account. Its fund generated by ... drum rolls... selling of bonds ... Why would someone sell a bond and buy a different one ... well, only if the terms are better .. treasury buy back per month - $4 billion Treasury bond sales per month - $800 billion Treasury outstanding (debts) - $40 trillion Treasury interest per year - more than gdp of USA and more than a trillion Fed can at most raise 25 points before they cause problem for treasury Walsh will do what he has been doing, stay deliberately vague, market will continue what is has been doing.. play the news whichever way the big whales 🐋 wants ..","html":"Long on stock != long on gold != long on miners TGA funds doesn't means fund sitting in any account. Its fund generated by ... drum rolls... selling of bonds ... Why would someone sell a bond and buy a different one ... well, only if the terms are better .. treasury buy back per month - $4 billion Treasury bond sales per month - $800 billion Treasury outstanding (debts) - $40 trillion Treasury interest per year - more than gdp of USA and more than a trillion Fed can at most raise 25 points before they cause problem for treasury Walsh will do what he has been doing, stay deliberately vague, market will continue what is has been doing.. play the news whichever way the big whales 🐋 wants .."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000435","authorId":"9000000000000435","name":"OwenBess","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd67ba4a6ca5ca66b27af6afcce989dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000435","authorIdStr":"9000000000000435"},"content":"Weekly RSI divergence matters more here, not just the 20dma. If that confirms after Jackson Hole, first week of September probably gets uglier fast","text":"Weekly RSI divergence matters more here, not just the 20dma. If that confirms after Jackson Hole, first week of September probably gets uglier fast","html":"Weekly RSI divergence matters more here, not just the 20dma. If that confirms after Jackson Hole, first week of September probably gets uglier fast"}],"streamModify":1787657708148,"id":600681133774336,"gmtCreate":1787647408170,"gmtModify":1787657708148,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Why I Think Going Long U.S. Stocks and Gold Ahead of Jackson Hole Isn't a Good Idea","htmlText":"I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&amp;P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&amp;P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. $标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0efc496fc72032cf894e9454e5db7f"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/945ca51c4da5703a2b462ffc3ec663f0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2f2db27f25bac4fb0e15bacb9be97edc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":159,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600681133774336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":600364937115136,"type":1,"entity":{"id":600364937115136,"gmtCreate":1787570211720,"gmtModify":1787645572733,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"U.S. Equity Technicals Turn Bearish? Several Opportunities Worth Watching (Recent Yield Sharing)","htmlText":"The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie","listText":"The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie","text":"The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/303d9238ce578291f21c7dac927a8907"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93ef538b66f2a9ec58e9cb425b285da3"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68f7713df5514ce78db52b56cc593097"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":92,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":10,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600364937115136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000469","authorId":"9000000000000469","name":"MortimerDodd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45889c069df88784e75b651f763a062a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000469","authorIdStr":"9000000000000469"},"content":"Crude still looks constructive to me. Inventory draws and backwardation matter more here than the entry plan, and that stop-to-breakeven shift makes sense","text":"Crude still looks constructive to me. Inventory draws and backwardation matter more here than the entry plan, and that stop-to-breakeven shift makes sense","html":"Crude still looks constructive to me. Inventory draws and backwardation matter more here than the entry plan, and that stop-to-breakeven shift makes sense"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000469","authorId":"9000000000000469","name":"MortimerDodd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45889c069df88784e75b651f763a062a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000469","authorIdStr":"9000000000000469"},"content":"Crude still looks constructive to me. Inventory draws and backwardation matter more here than the entry plan, and that stop-to-breakeven shift makes sense","text":"Crude still looks constructive to me. Inventory draws and backwardation matter more here than the entry plan, and that stop-to-breakeven shift makes sense","html":"Crude still looks constructive to me. Inventory draws and backwardation matter more here than the entry plan, and that stop-to-breakeven shift makes sense"}],"streamModify":1787645572733,"id":600364937115136,"gmtCreate":1787570211720,"gmtModify":1787645572733,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"U.S. Equity Technicals Turn Bearish? Several Opportunities Worth Watching (Recent Yield Sharing)","htmlText":"The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie","listText":"The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie","text":"The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/303d9238ce578291f21c7dac927a8907"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93ef538b66f2a9ec58e9cb425b285da3"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68f7713df5514ce78db52b56cc593097"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":92,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":10,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600364937115136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":600211971870768,"type":1,"entity":{"id":600211971870768,"gmtCreate":1787566823262,"gmtModify":1787645785588,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Treasury’s Large-Scale Rescue May Not Be Good？ Be Cautious Chasing Gold Higher","htmlText":"While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo","listText":"While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo","text":"While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/449cd213670f464bb78f7cc21c47aa9f"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4077c806bd09d567c6b482a06f3b13c"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99ab882ad7b117757c6bafc2a8c05e00"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":111,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":11,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600211971870768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000725","authorId":"9000000000000725","name":"AfraSimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d30a827da942c1b0307f51e832534e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000725","authorIdStr":"9000000000000725"},"content":"This was not exactly a black swan, the market had been sniffing out Treasury support already. What matters more is that the expectation gap is gone, so QQQ probably cracks first if sentiment wobbles again","text":"This was not exactly a black swan, the market had been sniffing out Treasury support already. What matters more is that the expectation gap is gone, so QQQ probably cracks first if sentiment wobbles again","html":"This was not exactly a black swan, the market had been sniffing out Treasury support already. What matters more is that the expectation gap is gone, so QQQ probably cracks first if sentiment wobbles again"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000725","authorId":"9000000000000725","name":"AfraSimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d30a827da942c1b0307f51e832534e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000725","authorIdStr":"9000000000000725"},"content":"This was not exactly a black swan, the market had been sniffing out Treasury support already. What matters more is that the expectation gap is gone, so QQQ probably cracks first if sentiment wobbles again","text":"This was not exactly a black swan, the market had been sniffing out Treasury support already. What matters more is that the expectation gap is gone, so QQQ probably cracks first if sentiment wobbles again","html":"This was not exactly a black swan, the market had been sniffing out Treasury support already. What matters more is that the expectation gap is gone, so QQQ probably cracks first if sentiment wobbles again"}],"streamModify":1787645785588,"id":600211971870768,"gmtCreate":1787566823262,"gmtModify":1787645785588,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Treasury’s Large-Scale Rescue May Not Be Good？ Be Cautious Chasing Gold Higher","htmlText":"While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo","listText":"While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo","text":"While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/449cd213670f464bb78f7cc21c47aa9f"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4077c806bd09d567c6b482a06f3b13c"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99ab882ad7b117757c6bafc2a8c05e00"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":111,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":11,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/600211971870768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":599160618893400,"type":1,"entity":{"id":599160618893400,"gmtCreate":1787310145639,"gmtModify":1787312667657,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"US Treasury Bond Purchases: Gold Surges, Dollar Plunges—But Is a Bull Market Really Here?","htmlText":"Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/5490386\">Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead?</a> I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro","listText":"Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/5490386\">Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead?</a> I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro","text":"Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead? I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a73ec34df6425156a39ad82c80292ab"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef16d815628cdf7dbca7e64155e97a4e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c21d473dbbefd8d5b56f54703648d3c5"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":98,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":16,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/599160618893400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274803156147","authorId":"3479274803156147","name":"0billionaire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d8c2eb1c079c85b43879eb951e8684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274803156147","authorIdStr":"3479274803156147"},"content":"Correlation works until stress breaks it. I care more about whether this dollar drop is liquidity-driven or a credit repricing, because EUR and JPY won’t travel the same path.","text":"Correlation works until stress breaks it. I care more about whether this dollar drop is liquidity-driven or a credit repricing, because EUR and JPY won’t travel the same path.","html":"Correlation works until stress breaks it. I care more about whether this dollar drop is liquidity-driven or a credit repricing, because EUR and JPY won’t travel the same path."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000661","authorId":"9000000000000661","name":"CareyDunlop","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742a1a3fe6754169c97157f6d9276916","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000661","authorIdStr":"9000000000000661"},"content":"2011 hit 1900 with DXY around 74; now it's still above 105, so this looks more structural than a clean gold bull run","text":"2011 hit 1900 with DXY around 74; now it's still above 105, so this looks more structural than a clean gold bull run","html":"2011 hit 1900 with DXY around 74; now it's still above 105, so this looks more structural than a clean gold bull run"}],"imageCount":16,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274803156147","authorId":"3479274803156147","name":"0billionaire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d8c2eb1c079c85b43879eb951e8684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274803156147","authorIdStr":"3479274803156147"},"content":"Correlation works until stress breaks it. I care more about whether this dollar drop is liquidity-driven or a credit repricing, because EUR and JPY won’t travel the same path.","text":"Correlation works until stress breaks it. I care more about whether this dollar drop is liquidity-driven or a credit repricing, because EUR and JPY won’t travel the same path.","html":"Correlation works until stress breaks it. I care more about whether this dollar drop is liquidity-driven or a credit repricing, because EUR and JPY won’t travel the same path."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000661","authorId":"9000000000000661","name":"CareyDunlop","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742a1a3fe6754169c97157f6d9276916","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000661","authorIdStr":"9000000000000661"},"content":"2011 hit 1900 with DXY around 74; now it's still above 105, so this looks more structural than a clean gold bull run","text":"2011 hit 1900 with DXY around 74; now it's still above 105, so this looks more structural than a clean gold bull run","html":"2011 hit 1900 with DXY around 74; now it's still above 105, so this looks more structural than a clean gold bull run"}],"streamModify":1787312667657,"id":599160618893400,"gmtCreate":1787310145639,"gmtModify":1787312667657,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"US Treasury Bond Purchases: Gold Surges, Dollar Plunges—But Is a Bull Market Really Here?","htmlText":"Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/5490386\">Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead?</a> I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro","listText":"Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/5490386\">Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead?</a> I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro","text":"Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead? I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a73ec34df6425156a39ad82c80292ab"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ef16d815628cdf7dbca7e64155e97a4e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c21d473dbbefd8d5b56f54703648d3c5"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":98,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":16,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/599160618893400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":16,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":598796858392704,"type":1,"entity":{"id":598796858392704,"gmtCreate":1787221338050,"gmtModify":1787898967027,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums","htmlText":"Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in","listText":"Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in","text":"Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9967fc2b07a8b6afb0f8114959e273b1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bd9b01757f75cac711a386c106deb242"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2818eaff7c59bf56e8a418a594dce7d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":106,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/598796858392704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274715219344","authorId":"3479274715219344","name":"catandbull","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/124ddb27832ad3a5d8aa835fe6bb7572","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274715219344","authorIdStr":"3479274715219344"},"content":"20m to 12m bpd is not just premium anymore, that's a real supply hole. Oil has the cleanest bid here while copper still needs demand proof","text":"20m to 12m bpd is not just premium anymore, that's a real supply hole. Oil has the cleanest bid here while copper still needs demand proof","html":"20m to 12m bpd is not just premium anymore, that's a real supply hole. Oil has the cleanest bid here while copper still needs demand proof"}],"imageCount":18,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274715219344","authorId":"3479274715219344","name":"catandbull","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/124ddb27832ad3a5d8aa835fe6bb7572","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274715219344","authorIdStr":"3479274715219344"},"content":"20m to 12m bpd is not just premium anymore, that's a real supply hole. Oil has the cleanest bid here while copper still needs demand proof","text":"20m to 12m bpd is not just premium anymore, that's a real supply hole. Oil has the cleanest bid here while copper still needs demand proof","html":"20m to 12m bpd is not just premium anymore, that's a real supply hole. Oil has the cleanest bid here while copper still needs demand proof"}],"streamModify":1787898967027,"id":598796858392704,"gmtCreate":1787221338050,"gmtModify":1787898967027,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Weekly:Institutions Pile into Energy&Metals as Tight Oil Inventories Risk Premiums","htmlText":"Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in","listText":"Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in","text":"Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9967fc2b07a8b6afb0f8114959e273b1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bd9b01757f75cac711a386c106deb242"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2818eaff7c59bf56e8a418a594dce7d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":106,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/598796858392704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":18,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":598429398143024,"type":1,"entity":{"id":598429398143024,"gmtCreate":1787131624598,"gmtModify":1787133109757,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Macro Strategy Week:High Yields Squeeze Market as Volatility Returns,Major Opportunities brewing 💹","htmlText":"Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik","listText":"Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik","text":"Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3ef9533c949a56d25e345b250ce995d4"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5741bc925fd2f2a8648921ce5a8837db"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14c932e89284d198ef1e503a86634095"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":86,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/598429398143024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000487","authorId":"9000000000000487","name":"MaudNelly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0fafb6a0868fdff5a6626301b88f7c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000487","authorIdStr":"9000000000000487"},"content":"I agree high yields are the core squeeze on valuations, but the curve matters too. A deeper 10Y-2Y inversion is rougher for XLF than most people are pricing in.","text":"I agree high yields are the core squeeze on valuations, but the curve matters too. A deeper 10Y-2Y inversion is rougher for XLF than most people are pricing in.","html":"I agree high yields are the core squeeze on valuations, but the curve matters too. A deeper 10Y-2Y inversion is rougher for XLF than most people are pricing in."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000441","authorId":"9000000000000441","name":"vi123123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2214c44af667ceaccefbb23d0bcacbb8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000441","authorIdStr":"9000000000000441"},"content":"The better pocket is still downside premium. SPY puts around 7% OTM usually pay fatter than calls here, time decay does the work if vol term structure stays this jumpy","text":"The better pocket is still downside premium. SPY puts around 7% OTM usually pay fatter than calls here, time decay does the work if vol term structure stays this jumpy","html":"The better pocket is still downside premium. SPY puts around 7% OTM usually pay fatter than calls here, time decay does the work if vol term structure stays this jumpy"}],"imageCount":20,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000487","authorId":"9000000000000487","name":"MaudNelly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0fafb6a0868fdff5a6626301b88f7c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000487","authorIdStr":"9000000000000487"},"content":"I agree high yields are the core squeeze on valuations, but the curve matters too. A deeper 10Y-2Y inversion is rougher for XLF than most people are pricing in.","text":"I agree high yields are the core squeeze on valuations, but the curve matters too. A deeper 10Y-2Y inversion is rougher for XLF than most people are pricing in.","html":"I agree high yields are the core squeeze on valuations, but the curve matters too. A deeper 10Y-2Y inversion is rougher for XLF than most people are pricing in."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000441","authorId":"9000000000000441","name":"vi123123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2214c44af667ceaccefbb23d0bcacbb8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000441","authorIdStr":"9000000000000441"},"content":"The better pocket is still downside premium. SPY puts around 7% OTM usually pay fatter than calls here, time decay does the work if vol term structure stays this jumpy","text":"The better pocket is still downside premium. SPY puts around 7% OTM usually pay fatter than calls here, time decay does the work if vol term structure stays this jumpy","html":"The better pocket is still downside premium. SPY puts around 7% OTM usually pay fatter than calls here, time decay does the work if vol term structure stays this jumpy"}],"streamModify":1787133109757,"id":598429398143024,"gmtCreate":1787131624598,"gmtModify":1787133109757,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Macro Strategy Week:High Yields Squeeze Market as Volatility Returns,Major Opportunities brewing 💹","htmlText":"Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik","listText":"Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik","text":"Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3ef9533c949a56d25e345b250ce995d4"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5741bc925fd2f2a8648921ce5a8837db"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14c932e89284d198ef1e503a86634095"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":86,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/598429398143024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":20,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":598390933225600,"type":1,"entity":{"id":598390933225600,"gmtCreate":1787122235226,"gmtModify":1788146277969,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"High-Level Pullback Begins？Three Strategies for a Choppy Market","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/595765834904680\">The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market</a> The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&amp;P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/595765834904680\">The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market</a> The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&amp;P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe","text":"The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/631d0ca65d09ed75204904863c4931d0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98b80baf0b3479e64078e827a582d54e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/08e49ba10a0f6d46ed1973dda9feae30"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/598390933225600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000579","authorId":"9000000000000579","name":"GeraldAdela","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74991ef479abd9cfe482bcb9079a22bb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000579","authorIdStr":"9000000000000579"},"content":"Crude matters, but VIX term structure is the cleaner tell here. If front-month stays pinned, this “pullback” can fade fast lol","text":"Crude matters, but VIX term structure is the cleaner tell here. If front-month stays pinned, this “pullback” can fade fast lol","html":"Crude matters, but VIX term structure is the cleaner tell here. If front-month stays pinned, this “pullback” can fade fast lol"}],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000579","authorId":"9000000000000579","name":"GeraldAdela","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74991ef479abd9cfe482bcb9079a22bb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000579","authorIdStr":"9000000000000579"},"content":"Crude matters, but VIX term structure is the cleaner tell here. If front-month stays pinned, this “pullback” can fade fast lol","text":"Crude matters, but VIX term structure is the cleaner tell here. If front-month stays pinned, this “pullback” can fade fast lol","html":"Crude matters, but VIX term structure is the cleaner tell here. If front-month stays pinned, this “pullback” can fade fast lol"}],"streamModify":1788146277969,"id":598390933225600,"gmtCreate":1787122235226,"gmtModify":1788146277969,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"High-Level Pullback Begins？Three Strategies for a Choppy Market","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/595765834904680\">The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market</a> The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&amp;P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/595765834904680\">The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market</a> The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&amp;P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe","text":"The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/631d0ca65d09ed75204904863c4931d0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98b80baf0b3479e64078e827a582d54e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/08e49ba10a0f6d46ed1973dda9feae30"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/598390933225600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":12,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":595765834904680,"type":1,"entity":{"id":595765834904680,"gmtCreate":1786447338295,"gmtModify":1786607480861,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉","htmlText":"Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. &nbsp; Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin","listText":"Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. &nbsp; Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin","text":"Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58009ce415c15b95a29fe125c72f51c8"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc8aca80586b1aab57e0ca43080829c0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e4c4a1a8e8a36f093b042f80bf98c100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":181,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/595765834904680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1786607480861,"id":595765834904680,"gmtCreate":1786447338295,"gmtModify":1786607480861,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉","htmlText":"Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. &nbsp; Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin","listText":"Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. &nbsp; Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin","text":"Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58009ce415c15b95a29fe125c72f51c8"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc8aca80586b1aab57e0ca43080829c0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e4c4a1a8e8a36f093b042f80bf98c100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":181,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/595765834904680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":12,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":595400072705456,"type":1,"entity":{"id":595400072705456,"gmtCreate":1786358062221,"gmtModify":1786892186265,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"The Right Way to Chase Gold Highs; Equities to Consolidate — Trade Options for Time Decay","htmlText":"The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to","listText":"The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to","text":"The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fdd052b4540f114a834b9bb00476d75c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":135,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":6,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/595400072705456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1786892186265,"id":595400072705456,"gmtCreate":1786358062221,"gmtModify":1786892186265,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"The Right Way to Chase Gold Highs; Equities to Consolidate — Trade Options for Time Decay","htmlText":"The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to","listText":"The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to","text":"The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fdd052b4540f114a834b9bb00476d75c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":135,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":6,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/595400072705456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":593602040985136,"type":1,"entity":{"id":593602040985136,"gmtCreate":1785919179834,"gmtModify":1785987103640,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹","htmlText":"Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/590822823945728\">Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat</a> Strategy Contributor: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3534312667271286\">@程俊Dream</a> US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr","listText":"Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/590822823945728\">Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat</a> Strategy Contributor: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3534312667271286\">@程俊Dream</a> US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr","text":"Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1d5c5cef940b27184d521a55ba2b546"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7db07996d7419b2216c1778628b372d"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ca6a754c75668703fd43b981a208b70"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":33,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593602040985136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":16,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987103640,"id":593602040985136,"gmtCreate":1785919179834,"gmtModify":1785987103640,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667627883060","authorIdStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹","htmlText":"Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/590822823945728\">Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat</a> Strategy Contributor: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3534312667271286\">@程俊Dream</a> US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr","listText":"Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/590822823945728\">Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat</a> Strategy Contributor: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3534312667271286\">@程俊Dream</a> US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr","text":"Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1d5c5cef940b27184d521a55ba2b546"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7db07996d7419b2216c1778628b372d"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ca6a754c75668703fd43b981a208b70"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":33,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593602040985136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":16,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":593305729447472,"type":1,"entity":{"id":593305729447472,"gmtCreate":1785846838150,"gmtModify":1785987106042,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Real Rally or Bull Trap? Why the Surging Yen Holds the Key to US Stocks？！💹📉","htmlText":"Just this past Monday, the S&amp;P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&amp;P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring \"the return of the king\" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current","listText":"Just this past Monday, the S&amp;P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&amp;P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring \"the return of the king\" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current","text":"Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring \"the return of the king\" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28f1e2e132d9b9a2ece03244c421aff7"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae35362c8326f10eb8abdc88125c5fe"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e99c102a554eae2ba7a09b9619d30e6e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":61,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593305729447472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987106042,"id":593305729447472,"gmtCreate":1785846838150,"gmtModify":1785987106042,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Real Rally or Bull Trap? Why the Surging Yen Holds the Key to US Stocks？！💹📉","htmlText":"Just this past Monday, the S&amp;P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&amp;P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring \"the return of the king\" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current","listText":"Just this past Monday, the S&amp;P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&amp;P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring \"the return of the king\" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current","text":"Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring \"the return of the king\" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28f1e2e132d9b9a2ece03244c421aff7"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae35362c8326f10eb8abdc88125c5fe"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e99c102a554eae2ba7a09b9619d30e6e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":61,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593305729447472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":592878186353744,"type":1,"entity":{"id":592878186353744,"gmtCreate":1785742344997,"gmtModify":1788146277890,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally","htmlText":"The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&amp;P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r","listText":"The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&amp;P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r","text":"The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82a339b78d9ab73336237d126e3b1a62"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab91e65b8aa05a6f48d84b83b64b9e58"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c4da42562aae3414f4e64937138311c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":252,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":21,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/592878186353744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4136897647765072","authorId":"4136897647765072","name":"SuperDuper1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4136897647765072","authorIdStr":"4136897647765072"},"content":"This is a counter trend rally on the NDX..","text":"This is a counter trend rally on the NDX..","html":"This is a counter trend rally on the NDX.."}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4136897647765072","authorId":"4136897647765072","name":"SuperDuper1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4136897647765072","authorIdStr":"4136897647765072"},"content":"This is a counter trend rally on the NDX..","text":"This is a counter trend rally on the NDX..","html":"This is a counter trend rally on the NDX.."}],"streamModify":1788146277890,"id":592878186353744,"gmtCreate":1785742344997,"gmtModify":1788146277890,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally","htmlText":"The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&amp;P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r","listText":"The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&amp;P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r","text":"The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82a339b78d9ab73336237d126e3b1a62"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab91e65b8aa05a6f48d84b83b64b9e58"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c4da42562aae3414f4e64937138311c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":252,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":21,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/592878186353744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":592877236159920,"type":1,"entity":{"id":592877236159920,"gmtCreate":1785742135330,"gmtModify":1788146277844,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?","htmlText":"The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Inve</a>","listText":"The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Inve</a>","text":"The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa0a0626d68bf647d9a710e181fc7a27"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1df7e562369b66be3c4949d7b9605707"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/562060c289328b93032b4b7d659ebec7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":208,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/592877236159920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1788146277844,"id":592877236159920,"gmtCreate":1785742135330,"gmtModify":1788146277844,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?","htmlText":"The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Inve</a>","listText":"The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Inve</a>","text":"The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa0a0626d68bf647d9a710e181fc7a27"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1df7e562369b66be3c4949d7b9605707"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/562060c289328b93032b4b7d659ebec7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":208,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/592877236159920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":591869838898736,"type":1,"entity":{"id":591869838898736,"gmtCreate":1785496278934,"gmtModify":1788146277707,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Latest Futures Class Recap: Will This Fed Meeting Burst the AI Bubble?","htmlText":"On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on <a href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\" target=\"_blank\">whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble</a>, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex","listText":"On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on <a href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\" target=\"_blank\">whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble</a>, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex","text":"On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deb3cc5db7404b7d882f0d06517f8269","width":"844","height":"475"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37292ca19228d6d68aaf0869de08eea8","width":"844","height":"475"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0733a146eaa65a4881fc533a94593f7b","width":"844","height":"475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":97,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":10,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/591869838898736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":19,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1788146277707,"id":591869838898736,"gmtCreate":1785496278934,"gmtModify":1788146277707,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668727377","authorIdStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Latest Futures Class Recap: Will This Fed Meeting Burst the AI Bubble?","htmlText":"On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on <a href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\" target=\"_blank\">whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble</a>, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex","listText":"On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on <a href=\"https://live.livesaasvolccdn.com/9999/4166650\" target=\"_blank\">whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble</a>, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex","text":"On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deb3cc5db7404b7d882f0d06517f8269","width":"844","height":"475"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37292ca19228d6d68aaf0869de08eea8","width":"844","height":"475"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0733a146eaa65a4881fc533a94593f7b","width":"844","height":"475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":97,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":10,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/591869838898736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":19,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"newsList":[],"exchange":{"abbreviation":"Chicago Mercantile Exchange","code":"CME","exchangeId":"FT_EX_CME","name":"CME","securityType":"FUT","status":"Online","weight":10,"zone":"CDT","zoneId":"America/Chicago","zoneName":"Central Daylight Time"},"contract":{"categoryId":"FT_CA_Equity_Index","contractCode":"MES2609","contractId":"2b5cc227839549dc860951c4cee4eca2","contractMonth":"202609","currency":"USD","currencyName":"USD","deliveryMode":"Cash","description":{"productAlias":"Micro S&P 500","productExchangeUrl":"https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/micro-e-mini-sandp-500_contract_specifications.html","productPriceIncrement":"0.25 per index point ( US$1.25 )","productScale":"US$5 USD per index point","productTradingMonth":"4 nearest quarterly months (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec)","productTradingTime":"17:00（T-1）-16:00","productType":"Equity Index","productWorth":"US$5 USD per index point","worth":5},"exchangeCode":"CME","exchangeId":"FT_EX_CME","firstNoticeDate":"","firstNoticeDateTimestamp":0,"hasVWAP":false,"isContinuous":false,"isMain":false,"isOmnibusTrade":true,"isTrade":true,"lastTradingDate":"20260918","lastTradingDateTimestamp":1789738200000,"multiplier":{"offset":0,"value":5},"name":"Micro E-mini S&P 500 - Sep 2026","overnightSupported":false,"productId":"FT_PD_MES_FUT","productPriceConfig":{"displayMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1},"maxScale":2,"priceIncrements":[{"displayPriceIncrement":{"offset":2,"value":25},"priceLowerLimit":{"offset":0,"value":0},"priceUpperLimit":{"offset":0,"value":0}}],"quotesScale":{"offset":2,"value":1},"quotesVendorMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1},"tradeMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1}},"quotesDisplayType":"Simple","referMainContractCode":"MESmain","referMainContractId":"756801a759e34e81be7565d922e012e1","securityType":"FUT","status":"Online","symbol":"MES","symbolId":"FT_SY_MES","symbolName":"Micro E-mini S&P 500"}}