The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to
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Gold’s Rally May Not Be Over Yet : Unlocking Equity Index Opportunities with Options
Gold’s Rally May Not Be Over Yet : Unlocking Equity Index Opportunities with Options
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Real Rally or Bull Trap? Why the Surging Yen Holds the Key to US Stocks？！💹📉
Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current
Real Rally or Bull Trap? Why the Surging Yen Holds the Key to US Stocks？！💹📉
Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally
The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r
Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally
Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?
The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve
Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?
Latest Futures Class Recap: Will This Fed Meeting Burst the AI Bubble?
On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex
Latest Futures Class Recap: Will This Fed Meeting Burst the AI Bubble?
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Three Strategies for Today’s Market: Capitalize on This Week’s FOMC Volatility
This week's price action in U.S. equities is critical for the market trend over the next several weeks — above all the FOMC decision due early Thursday Beijing time. The U.S. indices have arrived at a very important support level, and once a key variable pushes them into choosing a direction, the broader medium-term trend could change. The current calm may therefore be brewing sharp volatility in the back half of the week. First, the latest developments on the technical side As you can see, the Nasdaq has now reached a very critical level. On the head-and-shoulders top pattern, the formation can already be treated as a breakdown of the head structure; by conventional technical projection, the subsequent downside would theoretically be roughly equal to the distance from the head to the curr
Three Strategies for Today’s Market: Capitalize on This Week’s FOMC Volatility
Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat
First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli
Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat
Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options
Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in
Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options
Gold Approaches Crucial Inflection Point: All Eyes on This Price Level for a Potential Rally
Gold has been drifting near its lows for about four weeks since bottoming in late June. Although the bulls' earlier rebound attempts made limited headway, the technical structure suggests the probability of a larger-degree rebound in the next phase still exists. This week's earnings season and the Fed's rate decision are expected to be decisive for overall market risk appetite. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)
Gold Approaches Crucial Inflection Point: All Eyes on This Price Level for a Potential Rally
Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!
Following last week's historic sell-off, the U.S. stock market—particularly the semiconductor sector—is standing at an extremely critical crossroads. It is no exaggeration to say that if the market takes even one more step downward, it will likely trigger a substantial, weekly-level decline. However, if the market can hold its ground against the current downtrend and stabilize, a phased recovery is not far out of reach, especially if tensions in the US-Iran conflict continue to cool. Therefore, this week's price action is of paramount importance to U.S. equities. At this critical juncture, since we cannot precisely forecast geopolitical developments, relying on technical analysis and real capital flow data to gauge market sentiment becomes essential. Today, Owen's analysis will delve deep
Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!
Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound
Last week U.S. equities posted a weekly decline: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.54% for the week, but sector performance diverged sharply. Energy rose 4.72%, leading the entire market; Real Estate, Consumer and Financials also gained; Technology plunged more than 5%, becoming the main drag on the index. Capital is rotating out of high-valuation sectors into Energy, Real Estate and defensive sectors in search of internal rebalancing — and the sectors that had been leading are starting to loosen. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$
Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound
U.S.–Iran War Reignites and Risk Returns: Is Now the Time to Buy Gold?
After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor
U.S.–Iran War Reignites and Risk Returns: Is Now the Time to Buy Gold?
Is the Tech Slump Only Just Beginning? Reading the Signal from Japan and Korea
The global tech-stock sell-off has now run for more than three weeks, and most markets have pulled back to varying degrees. Among them, the sharply-corrected Korean market has even slipped into a technical bear. So is the current decline the eve of a major reversal, or just another routine technical pullback as so often before? Beyond Korea, Japan's market may offer the more valuable reference point. The valuation debate over tech stocks (AI-related) has raged for a long time, and trying to read it from a purely fundamental angle only ends in a dialogue of the deaf. Optimists believe the AI revolution will ultimately arrive; pessimists are convinced the bursting of the bubble is only a matter of time. In truth, for a trader, who is right or wrong is not the point—the point is which moment
Is the Tech Slump Only Just Beginning? Reading the Signal from Japan and Korea
Cold CPI, Fading Rate-Hike Bets, a Dollar Teetering at 100.5: Has Gold's Rebound Window Opened?
Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli
Cold CPI, Fading Rate-Hike Bets, a Dollar Teetering at 100.5: Has Gold's Rebound Window Opened?
Two Must-Watch Strategies Now: the Enticing oil Crack Spread and Stock-Index Options Straddle
Every week, Owen talks through some of the trading opportunities and strategies in the current market that are worth watching. This time we won't dwell on preliminaries and will get straight to the point. I believe there are two main opportunities to focus on this time: First, the crude oil crack spread has now surged to a historic extreme. How to find the right timing to short the spread is a highly noteworthy profit opportunity. Second, U.S. equities are currently stuck in a high-level, range-bound pattern. With tonight's upcoming CPI data as a catalyst, how should we use an options straddle strategy to bet on a return of volatility? This is likewise an opportunity worth exploring. Let's look at them one by one. $标普500(.SPX)$
Two Must-Watch Strategies Now: the Enticing oil Crack Spread and Stock-Index Options Straddle
Why the US–Iran War Scare Is Overdone — and Watch WTI's $80 Line
Last week the Middle East situation produced fresh news again — from the U.S. air strikes on Iran to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz — as if the old script were playing out once more. We noted before that the U.S.–Iran contest is unlikely to end peacefully, and will most probably reignite in the fourth quarter. So will the current developments bring the new fighting forward? On the whole, the probability is relatively limited, because the timing on the U.S. (Trump) side is not yet fully ready, and market behavior also shows that overall sentiment remains relatively stable. From the standpoint of long-term goals, taking Iran down — or at least striking it thoroughly — is the core demand for the U.S. However, both the military situation and inflation pressure previously meant the stalemate
Why the US–Iran War Scare Is Overdone — and Watch WTI's $80 Line
CPI Shock Ahead: Don't Chase Stocks,and Oil Still Has Room to Drop
Over the weekend, Iran once again claimed it had blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, after which the U.S. said the Oman shipping lane was still operating normally. For this kind of news about the strait being blockaded or reopened during negotiations, the market has already built up considerable immunity — it was basically fully priced in as soon as Asian markets opened last Monday. So investors need not be overly sensitive to such news; just watch the market's reaction after the open. The relatively important events this week are the Fed Chair's testimony and the release of the CPI data, on which the market will place its bets regarding rate-hike expectations. Although I don't think the Fed will make any major rate-hike move, the market may use the occasion to react ahead of time, causing a c
CPI Shock Ahead: Don't Chase Stocks,and Oil Still Has Room to Drop
War Reignites Between the US and Iran: How Do You Trade Futures Short-Term? （Recent Returns Revealed
Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv
War Reignites Between the US and Iran: How Do You Trade Futures Short-Term? （Recent Returns Revealed