Why Cloudflare Is Not A Buy Right Now

seekingalpha2021-05-31

Summary Cybercrime costs are rising sharply as more applications and workloads move to the cloud. Cloudflare is growing customers and revenues fast. But the valuation for the cloud firm is already ...

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Comments

LPN
2021-06-03
LPN
Wow...
- Nondescript:
  yay
- Nondescript:
  awww
Todkie
2021-05-31
Todkie
Like like
- keithwxy:
  Done! Help me too thanks!
- Sandy92:
  done. thanks. please help do the same
Roticanai
2021-05-31
Roticanai
Like
MumJ
2021-05-31
MumJ
Pls like n comment thanks!
- MumJ:
  thank u
- MumJ:
  thank u
- Karenyong32:
  Ok
- Huatmoney:
  Ok
whatisthis
2021-05-31
whatisthis
Why
Abundance Thankful
2021-05-31
Abundance Thankful
Wow

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Cloudflare offers authentication and security products that ensure that businesses of all sizes can do business online safely. With more and more workloads shifting online because of the pandemic and because of an increase in remote working, Cloudflare has been able to scale its cloud platform and onboard a lot of new customers during the pandemic.\nHigh-profile ransomware attacks on the operators of the Colonial Pipeline in May increased the awareness about the dangers and costs of cybercrime. Whether it is ransomware, DDoS attacks or the theft of intellectual property, cybercrime comes in different forms and can impose significant costs on their corporate victims.\nAccording to a cybercrimereportcommissioned by McAfee, cybercrime costs the world about 1% of its global GDP. Last year, cybercrime was estimated to have cost the world $945b, not including spending on actual cybersecurity services.\nThe costs of cybercrime have exploded since 2018…\n(Source: McAfee - The Hidden Costs of Cybercrime)\nCybercrime does not only have direct and measurable costs, however, such as ransom payments that need to be made in order to regain control over computer system, but it also has indirect costs that are harder to estimate and these costs are often related to a loss of customer trust, brand damage or declining long-term competitive strength in case intellectual property is stolen.\nBased on the McAfee cybercrime report, two-thirds of survey respondents reported a cybersecurity incident in 2019… and unfortunately a lot of companies are not fully prepared to deal with the challenges and complexities of such an event.\n(Source: McAfee -The Hidden Costs of Cybercrime)\nWith more applications and work processes shifting online and costs of cybercrime accelerating, Cloudflare fulfills a vital need in a fast growing market: Cloud security.\nCloudflare's addressable market has a volume of $72b but it is expanding as the firm continually develops its cloud platform and integrates new applications and services. Cloudflare expects that the addressable market for its cloud platform will expand to $100b by 2024.\n(Source:Cloudflare)\nThe migration to the cloud has driven a lot of new customers and revenues to Cloudflare, especially in the 2019 pandemic year when businesses were forced to make changes to their IT infrastructure.\nCloudflare's revenues surged 50% during the pandemic to $431m and the first quarter 2021 saw a continuation of this trend: Revenues grew 51% Y/Y but growth is expected to fall as the \"positive\" effects of the pandemic wear off in FY 2021.\n(Source: Cloudflare)\nCloudflare has more than 4.1m free and paying customers today. The cloud firm also serves 17% of Fortune 1000 companies and has potential to increase penetration in this lucrative market of large corporate clients.\nLarge corporate accounts are an important revenue source for Cloudflare and the firm has made inroads in this market over the last four years. Cloudflare's largest customers, those that contribute more than $100k annually in revenues, were responsible for $29m of revenues in FY 2017. This equals a share of just 21% of all revenues. By FY 2020, the largest accounts contributed 6.8 times as much as they did in FY 2017, $198m… and this equals a share of 46%!\nWhat this means is that, over time, larger corporate accounts have become more important for Cloudflare's revenue generation. The most profitable accounts, those creating $1m or more in annualized revenues, have been the fastest growing segment for Cloudflare since FY 2017.\n(Source: Author, Cloudflare Financial Reports)\n\n\n\n\n\nOne way to measure organic revenue growth is to look for Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention rate… which is just a technical term for revenue growth from the same customer, measured over two periods.\nCloudflare's dollar-based net retention rate was 123% in the first quarter 2021 and successively increased since the second quarter 2020. The 123%-rate means that Cloudflare's customers spent 123% more on the firm's cloud platform than they did in the previous measurement period…. it therefore measures the firm's ability to up-sell customers and roll out new products/services successfully. Cloudflare's retention rate is very similar to the retention rates of CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD).\nGrowth in Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention rate was predominantly driven by larger corporate accounts, those that produce $100k or more in annualized revenues.\n(Source: Cloudflare)\nCloudflare expects to have revenues of $589m to $593m this year, implying a growth rate of 37.5% Y/Y. The firm is not expected to be profitable this year.\nThe revenue opportunity is clearly there for Cloudflare and the firm has successfully on-boarded new paying customers during the pandemic, but what is a realistic revenue target for the firm, say, four years out?\nRevenue growth may slow for Cloudflare after the pandemic since a lot of firms have made their IT upgrades now, but the annual growth rate should nevertheless remain above 30% for the next four years. This means, assuming linearly falling growth rates, that Cloudflare could be a $1b revenue company by FY 2023 and have revenues just shy of $2b by FY 2025. The first billion is always the hardest, but the next billion should come within three years of reaching the first if Cloudflare sustains a 30% growth rate after FY 2023.\nFirms with cloud infrastructure and SaaS businesses are generally valued highly, and this is predominantly because of strong expected revenue growth, not profit growth.\nCloudflare's P-S ratio is 31.3, based on FY 2022 revenues of $814m, and it is the second-highest P-S ratio in the industry group after Snowflake (SNOW).\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nIf I had to choose one firm in the cloud sector,I would choose CrowdStrike. The cloud security firm has about the same dollar-based net retention rate as Cloudflare but CrowdStrike grew subscription revenues at more than 70% last year and trades at a lower P-S ratio than Cloudflare.\nTurning to risks.\nCloudflare is not running a profitable business as of now. But losses are narrowing and the firm may be profitable in FY 2022 or FY 2023.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nEventually, investors want to see profits, not only revenue growth but also the question will be if Cloudflare can keep its high P-S ratio when revenue growth slows.\nRelatedly, Cloudflare has issued a lot of shares in the last two years which dilutes shareholders and lowers EPS for the other investors in the firm.\nA lack of profitability and dilution could become issues for Cloudflare if investors don't start to see profits soon...\n(Source: Cloudflare)\nFinal thoughts\nCloudflare is a fast growing cloud-based web security business and the revenue opportunity is immense as cyberattacks are only poised to increase with more workloads shifting online.\nCloudflare has been able to grow customers and revenues quickly during the pandemic, but the valuation is a problem. 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Help me too thanks!","text":"Done! Help me too thanks!","html":"Done! Help me too thanks!"},{"id":4518298,"gmtCreate":1622464487686,"gmtModify":1680792186289,"authorId":3563504647645776,"author":{"id":3563504647645776,"idStr":"3563504647645776","authorId":3563504647645776,"name":"Sandy92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f86355f6dbed4dfca34d989df1a36e1","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110223824,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done. thanks. please help do the same","text":"done. thanks. please help do the same","html":"done. thanks. please help do the same"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":110229206,"gmtCreate":1622461853705,"gmtModify":1704184735092,"author":{"id":"3581913988119713","authorId":"3581913988119713","name":"Roticanai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da10b7952b9a699e2c4703a67642740","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581913988119713","authorIdStr":"3581913988119713"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110229206","repostId":1107834073,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":110263687,"gmtCreate":1622460632549,"gmtModify":1704184722596,"author":{"id":"3582080974533433","authorId":"3582080974533433","name":"MumJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24a11fee66832dcfc9036c2b7a805e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582080974533433","authorIdStr":"3582080974533433"},"htmlText":"Pls like n comment thanks!","listText":"Pls like n comment thanks!","text":"Pls like n comment thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110263687","repostId":1107834073,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4530839,"gmtCreate":1622550157975,"gmtModify":1680792417116,"authorId":3582080974533433,"author":{"id":3582080974533433,"idStr":"3582080974533433","authorId":3582080974533433,"name":"MumJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24a11fee66832dcfc9036c2b7a805e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110263687,"type":1,"supId":4517966,"prevId":0,"content":"thank <u>u</u>","text":"thank <u>u</u>","html":"thank <u>u</u>"},{"id":4530842,"gmtCreate":1622550163758,"gmtModify":1680792413000,"authorId":3582080974533433,"author":{"id":3582080974533433,"idStr":"3582080974533433","authorId":3582080974533433,"name":"MumJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24a11fee66832dcfc9036c2b7a805e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110263687,"type":1,"supId":4517941,"prevId":0,"content":"thank <u>u</u>","text":"thank <u>u</u>","html":"thank 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