油价重回百元不是梦！OPEC+意外减产后，市场又爆了

智通财经2023-04-03

OPEC+削减石油产量的决定令市场大吃一惊，因为该组织领导人沙特阿拉伯早些时候曾表示将按兵不动。此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。美国白宫称，在目前的市场条件下，OPEC+的决定是不明智的，并补充说，美国将与生产者和消费者合作，重点关注美国的汽油价格。市场对OPEC+减产迅速做出反应。周一布伦特原油价格一度飙升8%。美国两年期国债收益率跃升7个基点，至4.10%，而基准10年期国债收益率...

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财米游言
2023-04-03
财米游言
[微笑]
Mingzu
2023-04-03
Mingzu
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liuxiangwei
2023-04-03
liuxiangwei
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hangyuliang
2023-04-03
hangyuliang
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hangyuliang
2023-04-03
hangyuliang
[微笑]
hangyuliang
2023-04-03
hangyuliang
[微笑]

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After OPEC + unexpectedly reduced production, the market exploded again","themeId":"525a8652e1734eedaf2eb7850a69fece","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4016d909ee2de44c2a08bc0038997b9","symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":1,"CLmain":1,"SCO":1,"UCO":1,"USO":1},"content_text":"OPEC+削减石油产量的决定令市场大吃一惊，因为该组织领导人沙特阿拉伯早些时候曾表示将按兵不动。此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。美国白宫称，在目前的市场条件下，OPEC+的决定是不明智的，并补充说，美国将与生产者和消费者合作，重点关注美国的汽油价格。市场对OPEC+减产迅速做出反应。周一布伦特原油价格一度飙升8%。美国两年期国债收益率跃升7个基点，至4.10%，而基准10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点，至3.52%。美元现货指数上涨0.2%，为连续第二天上涨，反映出市场押注美联储将进一步加息。以下是分析人士对OPEC+减产的看法：高盛Daan Struyven和Callum Bruce等高盛分析师表示:“与过去相比，OPEC+拥有非常强大的定价权。”“OPEC+意外减产符合他们先发制人的新原则，因为他们可以在不大幅损失市场份额的情况下采取行动。”再加上俄罗斯延长减产，这家华尔街巨头将今年12月的布伦特原油预测从此前的每桶90美元上调至95美元，并将2024年12月的价格预测上调至100美元。高盛补充称，与去年10月OPEC+减产不同，由于中国需求强劲复苏和炼油利润率坚挺，全球石油需求的势头是积极的。美国银行美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示:“在一年的时间里，供需状况发生任何意外的100万桶/日变化，都会对油价造成每桶20至25美元的影响。”他表示:“如果布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元以上交易，OPEC不再担心美国页岩油供应的重大反应，因此削减产量推高油价不会像五年前那样带来风险。”他表示，尽管如此，目前尚不清楚计划中的减产有多少会落实到实际产量上，因为OPEC历史上一直未能完全实施商定的减产。美国银行维持布伦特原油在今年下半年超过每桶90美元的预测。花旗集团包括Ed Morse和Francesco Martoccia在内的花旗分析师表示:“OPEC+恢复了最近放弃的成为石油‘央行行长’的决定。”他们表示：“考虑到极低的管理资金配置、低持仓利率和高波动性，市场可以预期价格会出现超调，就像美联储收紧政策和银行业动荡导致两周前的价格下跌幅度远远超过了应有的水平。”加拿大皇家银行据包括Helima Croft和Christopher Louney在内的加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师称，OPEC+的意外减产可能导致实际产量减少约70万桶/天，尽管新闻报道的数字约为165万桶/天。不过，此举可以被解读为一个信号，即沙特阿拉伯及其OPEC伙伴将寻求阻止进一步的宏观抛售。他们认为，沙特明确表达了对美联储激进行动、宏观不确定性以及市场过度看空倾向的担忧。澳新银行澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes表示，在这些措施出台后，油价在年底前达到100美元的可能性“肯定增加了”。他表示:“和市场上的其他人一样，我对这一举动感到非常惊讶。”“这项措施确实向市场发出了一个非常强烈的信号，即他们将支持油价。”澳大利亚联邦银行澳大利亚联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品研究主管Vivek Dhar表示，OPEC+宣布的减产将“占未来两个月全球供应量的1.1%左右，占今年下半年全球供应量的1.6%左右”。他补充说，计划减产的8个国家确实有能力这样做。Dhar表示:“因此，每天减产超过100万桶可以成为现实。”“人们应该关注这些削减，因为它们实际上是可以实现的。”瑞典北欧斯安银行瑞典北欧斯安银行首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示:“随着美国石油产量增长放缓，市场份额被美国页岩油抢走的风险有限，因此OPEC+很容易削减产量。”“美国页岩油增长放缓的自然结果是，OPEC+的市场力量更大，油价更高。”他表示，随着全球航空燃油需求复苏，减产将有助于推动布伦特原油更快回到每桶100美元的水平。Schieldrop之前曾认为，OPEC仍有进一步减产的巨大空间。他表示：“即使在最近的减产之后，这一点仍然成立。其结果是，油价下行风险有限。”Vanda Insights新加坡石油咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人Vandana Hari表示:“此举可能会使市场在第二季度出现供应短缺，而不是此前预期的供应过剩。”她补充称:“油价上涨可能会抑制部分原油需求，并加剧各大央行试图遏制的顽固通胀，增加衰退风险。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9941410102,"gmtCreate":1680524683907,"gmtModify":1680524688666,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584267972657287","authorIdStr":"3584267972657287"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941410102","repostId":2324832862,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941497296,"gmtCreate":1680515346816,"gmtModify":1680515350344,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorIdStr":"3582685386479633"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941497296","repostId":2324832862,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941497891,"gmtCreate":1680515225014,"gmtModify":1680515228694,"author":{"id":"3582688457818684","authorId":"3582688457818684","name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582688457818684","authorIdStr":"3582688457818684"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941497891","repostId":2324832862,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941497115,"gmtCreate":1680515098537,"gmtModify":1680515102031,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorIdStr":"3581648325885484"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941497115","repostId":2324832862,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941497322,"gmtCreate":1680515086066,"gmtModify":1680515089478,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorIdStr":"3581648325885484"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941497322","repostId":2324832862,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9941497919,"gmtCreate":1680515066632,"gmtModify":1680515070163,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581648325885484","authorIdStr":"3581648325885484"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941497919","repostId":2324832862,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":8,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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