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Oil prices returning to 100 yuan is not a dream! The market exploded again after OPEC+ unexpectedly cut production.

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14:10","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Oil prices returning to 100 yuan is not a dream! The market exploded again after OPEC+ unexpectedly cut production.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2324832862","media":"智通财经","summary":"此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production surprised the market, as the organization's leader, Saudi Arabia, had earlier stated that it would hold rates steady. The move has reignited concerns about inflation and recession.</p><p>The White House stated that OPEC+'s decision was unwise under current market conditions, adding that the U.S. will work with producers and consumers to focus on U.S. gasoline prices.</p><p>The market reacted quickly to OPEC+ production cuts. Brent crude oil prices surged as much as 8% on Monday. The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.10%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 3.52%. The dollar spot index rose 0.2%, marking its second consecutive day of gains, reflecting market bets on further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Here are analysts' thoughts on OPEC+ production cuts:</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></strong></p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts such as Daan Struyven and Callum Bruce stated, \"OPEC+ has very strong pricing power compared to the past.\" \"OPEC+'s unexpected production cuts align with their new principle of preemptive action, as they can act without significantly losing market share.\"</p><p>In addition to Russia's extended production cuts, the Wall Street giant raised its Brent crude oil forecast for December from $90 a barrel to $95 and its price forecast for December 2024 to $100.</p><p>Goldman Sachs added that, unlike the OPEC+ production cuts last October, global oil demand momentum is positive due to a strong recovery in Chinese demand and firm refining profit margins.</p><p><strong>Bank of America</strong></p><p>Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, said: \"Any unexpected change in supply and demand by 1 million barrels per day over the course of a year can have an impact of $20 to $25 per barrel on oil prices.\"</p><p>He stated, \"If Brent crude oil prices trade above $80 a barrel, OPEC is no longer worried about a major reaction to U.S. shale oil supply, so cutting production to push up oil prices will not pose the same risk as it did five years ago.\"</p><p>He stated that, despite this, it remains unclear how much of the planned production cuts will translate into actual output, as OPEC has historically failed to fully implement agreed production cuts. Bank of America maintains its forecast that Brent crude oil will exceed $90 per barrel in the second half of this year.</p><p><strong>Citigroup</strong></p><p>Citi analysts, including Ed Morse and Francesco Martoccia, said: \"OPEC+ has reinstated its recently abandoned decision to become an oil 'central bank governor'.\"</p><p>They stated, \"Given the extremely low allocation of managed funds, low interest rates on positions, and high volatility, the market can expect prices to overcorrect, just as the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and banking turmoil caused prices to fall far more than they should have two weeks ago.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a></strong></p><p>According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, including Helima Croft and Christopher Louney, OPEC+'s unexpected production cuts could reduce actual output by about 700,000 barrels per day, despite news reports of about 1.65 million barrels per day.</p><p>However, this move can be interpreted as a signal that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will seek to prevent further macro selling. They believe that Saudi Arabia has clearly expressed its concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive actions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and overly bearish market tendencies.</p><p><strong>ANZ Bank</strong></p><p>Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ Bank, said that the likelihood of oil prices reaching $100 by the end of the year has “definitely increased” following these measures.</p><p>He said, \"Like everyone else in the market, I was very surprised by this move.\" \"This measure does send a very strong signal to the market that they will support oil prices.\"</p><p><strong>Commonwealth Bank of Australia</strong></p><p>Vivek Dhar, head of mining and energy commodities research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the production cuts announced by OPEC+ will \"account for about 1.1% of global supply in the next two months and about 1.6% of global supply in the second half of this year.\"</p><p>He added that the eight countries planning to cut production do have the capacity to do so. \"Therefore, a production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day could become a reality,\" Dhar said. \"People should pay attention to these cuts because they are actually achievable.\"</p><p><strong>Swedish Nordic San Bank</strong></p><p>\"With slowing U.S. oil production growth, the risk of market share being taken away by U.S. shale oil is limited, making it easy for OPEC+ to cut production,\" said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Nordbank. \"The natural consequence of slowing U.S. shale oil growth is that OPEC+ has greater market power and higher oil prices.\"</p><p>He stated that as global demand for aviation fuel recovers, production cuts will help push Brent crude back to the $100 per barrel level more quickly.</p><p>Schieldrop previously believed that OPEC still had significant room for further production cuts. He stated, \"This remains true even after the recent production cuts. As a result, the downside risk to oil prices is limited.\"</p><p><strong>Vanda Insights</strong></p><p>\"This move could lead to a supply shortage in the market in the second quarter, rather than the previously expected oversupply,\" said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based oil consulting firm Vanda Insights.</p><p>She added, \"Rising oil prices could dampen some crude oil demand and exacerbate the stubborn inflation that major central banks are trying to curb, increasing the risk of recession.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices returning to 100 yuan is not a dream! The market exploded again after OPEC+ unexpectedly cut production.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices returning to 100 yuan is not a dream! The market exploded again after OPEC+ unexpectedly cut production.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-03 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production surprised the market, as the organization's leader, Saudi Arabia, had earlier stated that it would hold rates steady. The move has reignited concerns about inflation and recession.</p><p>The White House stated that OPEC+'s decision was unwise under current market conditions, adding that the U.S. will work with producers and consumers to focus on U.S. gasoline prices.</p><p>The market reacted quickly to OPEC+ production cuts. Brent crude oil prices surged as much as 8% on Monday. The U.S. two-year Treasury Bond yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.10%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 3.52%. The dollar spot index rose 0.2%, marking its second consecutive day of gains, reflecting market bets on further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Here are analysts' thoughts on OPEC+ production cuts:</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a></strong></p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts such as Daan Struyven and Callum Bruce stated, \"OPEC+ has very strong pricing power compared to the past.\" \"OPEC+'s unexpected production cuts align with their new principle of preemptive action, as they can act without significantly losing market share.\"</p><p>In addition to Russia's extended production cuts, the Wall Street giant raised its Brent crude oil forecast for December from $90 a barrel to $95 and its price forecast for December 2024 to $100.</p><p>Goldman Sachs added that, unlike the OPEC+ production cuts last October, global oil demand momentum is positive due to a strong recovery in Chinese demand and firm refining profit margins.</p><p><strong>Bank of America</strong></p><p>Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, said: \"Any unexpected change in supply and demand by 1 million barrels per day over the course of a year can have an impact of $20 to $25 per barrel on oil prices.\"</p><p>He stated, \"If Brent crude oil prices trade above $80 a barrel, OPEC is no longer worried about a major reaction to U.S. shale oil supply, so cutting production to push up oil prices will not pose the same risk as it did five years ago.\"</p><p>He stated that, despite this, it remains unclear how much of the planned production cuts will translate into actual output, as OPEC has historically failed to fully implement agreed production cuts. Bank of America maintains its forecast that Brent crude oil will exceed $90 per barrel in the second half of this year.</p><p><strong>Citigroup</strong></p><p>Citi analysts, including Ed Morse and Francesco Martoccia, said: \"OPEC+ has reinstated its recently abandoned decision to become an oil 'central bank governor'.\"</p><p>They stated, \"Given the extremely low allocation of managed funds, low interest rates on positions, and high volatility, the market can expect prices to overcorrect, just as the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and banking turmoil caused prices to fall far more than they should have two weeks ago.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a></strong></p><p>According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, including Helima Croft and Christopher Louney, OPEC+'s unexpected production cuts could reduce actual output by about 700,000 barrels per day, despite news reports of about 1.65 million barrels per day.</p><p>However, this move can be interpreted as a signal that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will seek to prevent further macro selling. They believe that Saudi Arabia has clearly expressed its concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive actions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and overly bearish market tendencies.</p><p><strong>ANZ Bank</strong></p><p>Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ Bank, said that the likelihood of oil prices reaching $100 by the end of the year has “definitely increased” following these measures.</p><p>He said, \"Like everyone else in the market, I was very surprised by this move.\" \"This measure does send a very strong signal to the market that they will support oil prices.\"</p><p><strong>Commonwealth Bank of Australia</strong></p><p>Vivek Dhar, head of mining and energy commodities research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the production cuts announced by OPEC+ will \"account for about 1.1% of global supply in the next two months and about 1.6% of global supply in the second half of this year.\"</p><p>He added that the eight countries planning to cut production do have the capacity to do so. \"Therefore, a production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day could become a reality,\" Dhar said. \"People should pay attention to these cuts because they are actually achievable.\"</p><p><strong>Swedish Nordic San Bank</strong></p><p>\"With slowing U.S. oil production growth, the risk of market share being taken away by U.S. shale oil is limited, making it easy for OPEC+ to cut production,\" said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Nordbank. \"The natural consequence of slowing U.S. shale oil growth is that OPEC+ has greater market power and higher oil prices.\"</p><p>He stated that as global demand for aviation fuel recovers, production cuts will help push Brent crude back to the $100 per barrel level more quickly.</p><p>Schieldrop previously believed that OPEC still had significant room for further production cuts. He stated, \"This remains true even after the recent production cuts. As a result, the downside risk to oil prices is limited.\"</p><p><strong>Vanda Insights</strong></p><p>\"This move could lead to a supply shortage in the market in the second quarter, rather than the previously expected oversupply,\" said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based oil consulting firm Vanda Insights.</p><p>She added, \"Rising oil prices could dampen some crude oil demand and exacerbate the stubborn inflation that major central banks are trying to curb, increasing the risk of recession.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/783b90f4f58142af1f2aa989e35dc732","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2324832862","content_text":"OPEC+削减石油产量的决定令市场大吃一惊，因为该组织领导人沙特阿拉伯早些时候曾表示将按兵不动。此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。美国白宫称，在目前的市场条件下，OPEC+的决定是不明智的，并补充说，美国将与生产者和消费者合作，重点关注美国的汽油价格。市场对OPEC+减产迅速做出反应。周一布伦特原油价格一度飙升8%。美国两年期国债收益率跃升7个基点，至4.10%，而基准10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点，至3.52%。美元现货指数上涨0.2%，为连续第二天上涨，反映出市场押注美联储将进一步加息。以下是分析人士对OPEC+减产的看法：高盛Daan Struyven和Callum Bruce等高盛分析师表示:“与过去相比，OPEC+拥有非常强大的定价权。”“OPEC+意外减产符合他们先发制人的新原则，因为他们可以在不大幅损失市场份额的情况下采取行动。”再加上俄罗斯延长减产，这家华尔街巨头将今年12月的布伦特原油预测从此前的每桶90美元上调至95美元，并将2024年12月的价格预测上调至100美元。高盛补充称，与去年10月OPEC+减产不同，由于中国需求强劲复苏和炼油利润率坚挺，全球石油需求的势头是积极的。美国银行美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示:“在一年的时间里，供需状况发生任何意外的100万桶/日变化，都会对油价造成每桶20至25美元的影响。”他表示:“如果布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元以上交易，OPEC不再担心美国页岩油供应的重大反应，因此削减产量推高油价不会像五年前那样带来风险。”他表示，尽管如此，目前尚不清楚计划中的减产有多少会落实到实际产量上，因为OPEC历史上一直未能完全实施商定的减产。美国银行维持布伦特原油在今年下半年超过每桶90美元的预测。花旗集团包括Ed Morse和Francesco Martoccia在内的花旗分析师表示:“OPEC+恢复了最近放弃的成为石油‘央行行长’的决定。”他们表示：“考虑到极低的管理资金配置、低持仓利率和高波动性，市场可以预期价格会出现超调，就像美联储收紧政策和银行业动荡导致两周前的价格下跌幅度远远超过了应有的水平。”加拿大皇家银行据包括Helima Croft和Christopher Louney在内的加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师称，OPEC+的意外减产可能导致实际产量减少约70万桶/天，尽管新闻报道的数字约为165万桶/天。不过，此举可以被解读为一个信号，即沙特阿拉伯及其OPEC伙伴将寻求阻止进一步的宏观抛售。他们认为，沙特明确表达了对美联储激进行动、宏观不确定性以及市场过度看空倾向的担忧。澳新银行澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes表示，在这些措施出台后，油价在年底前达到100美元的可能性“肯定增加了”。他表示:“和市场上的其他人一样，我对这一举动感到非常惊讶。”“这项措施确实向市场发出了一个非常强烈的信号，即他们将支持油价。”澳大利亚联邦银行澳大利亚联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品研究主管Vivek Dhar表示，OPEC+宣布的减产将“占未来两个月全球供应量的1.1%左右，占今年下半年全球供应量的1.6%左右”。他补充说，计划减产的8个国家确实有能力这样做。Dhar表示:“因此，每天减产超过100万桶可以成为现实。”“人们应该关注这些削减，因为它们实际上是可以实现的。”瑞典北欧斯安银行瑞典北欧斯安银行首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示:“随着美国石油产量增长放缓，市场份额被美国页岩油抢走的风险有限，因此OPEC+很容易削减产量。”“美国页岩油增长放缓的自然结果是，OPEC+的市场力量更大，油价更高。”他表示，随着全球航空燃油需求复苏，减产将有助于推动布伦特原油更快回到每桶100美元的水平。Schieldrop之前曾认为，OPEC仍有进一步减产的巨大空间。他表示：“即使在最近的减产之后，这一点仍然成立。其结果是，油价下行风险有限。”Vanda Insights新加坡石油咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人Vandana 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