Medium-term correction of GOLD may not be completely,Further decline lie ahead

程俊Dream
2023-07-05

Gold showed signs of a bottom out in the past week, and the integer mark near 1900 provided some buying support.

On the news side, it has maintained a stable trend in the near future, and there is no new significant positive or negative news. Referring to indicators such as gold-silver ratio, the medium-term correction may not be completely over at present. After the next round of adjustment, gold will have a chance to enter a new rally.

The range of gold-silver ratio is the key to pressure reference

The price comparison between gold and silver has always been an important reference for considering the overall direction of precious metals: in the relatively weak stage of silver, the probability of gold taking the lead alone is low, and the recovery of silver is one of the overall upward signals. At present, the gold-silver ratio has been maintained within the trading range of nearly one year for a long time, with pressure on the top and support on the bottom.

If you can touch the pressure area near 90, it is expected to become an indicator of the simultaneous bottoming of gold and silver in the short and medium term.

Does the exchange rate affect the gold in the chinese market?

In addition to the ratio of gold to silver, the difference between the varieties of inner and outer plates is also one of the characteristics of gold to be adjusted. The internal market mainly refers to the high consolidation of Shanghai Gold Company in the past few weeks. Due to the impact of RMB depreciation, the anti-falling characteristics of the internal market are very obvious. However, from the historical market, the market will converge as a whole before the formation of the important bottom. In other words, the bottom will come only after the gold in the inner plate needs to be made up for by the naked eye.

According to the current situation, the correction of RMB rebound is naturally the best opportunity, because the exchange rate itself has reached a very sensitive and critical level. It may not be the best option in the short term to let the RMB price depreciate further above 7.3. Of course, if the price of gold itself falls large enough, it can also cause the internal price to fall below the platform, which will lead to the appearance of long stop loss and make-up.

It is important to pay special attention to the fact that if the RMB really breaks up (depreciates) in a trend, it means that there will be a pattern in which the internal gold is strong and the external gold is relatively weak for a long time, so arbitrage friends can look for trading opportunities. However, considering that the overall financial environment is not too bad, it is expected that the official verbal or practical crackdown will limit the chances of a short-term sharp depreciation of the RMB.

Keep patience and enter step by step

As for the price of gold bulls getting on the bus again in the medium term, the current view is basically the same as before: the first point of view is to pay attention to the main gap of 1860/67, which can stabilize and pull the platform if it is strong enough. The first layout can be at this level. If the price is weak or falling too fast, look for opportunities to increase positions at the integer level of 1800.

Since 1820-1800 changed hands actively and was also a psychological support, the bulls will not be weak. In the end, it is the rising point of 1760, but it is unlikely to probe down, so just prepare for the worst and leave a few bullets. On the premise that 1618 is not broken, it can still bring good cost performance when it rises to 2300.

$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2309 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2309 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Link 2308 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Link 2308 (CLmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2309 (ESmain) $

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Comments

  • jgaldon
    2023-07-06
    jgaldon
    I for one closed my shorts in gdxj last Thursday after 7? weeks and flipped long. In ASX, went for NST. That being said,  not all signs of a bottom were met and author is right there might be one more violent leg down.

    Tonight was painful in GDXJ and the day is not looking good for NST and my old aussie explorers. Will monitor COT data sat morning and price action tonight and see what to do on Mon next week. Good luck all

    • jgaldon
      On the flip side, miners did meet more bottoming criteria and silver is indeed outperforming gold as of recently (main author thesis btw)
  • chizzoo
    2023-07-05
    chizzoo

    Gold and silver have been stuck in the trading range for a year, like a long-distance relationship with constant pressure on the top and support on the bottom. #RelationshipGoals

  • squishx
    2023-07-05
    squishx

    If gold can touch the pressure area near 90, it's like finding the perfect angle for a group selfie – a sign of simultaneous bottoming for gold and silver!

  • bubblyo
    2023-07-05
    bubblyo

    So, gold and silver are like the Ross and Rachel of precious metals, waiting for a simultaneous bottoming in the short and medium term.

  • zookz
    2023-07-05
    zookz

    The gold-silver ratio is the ultimate pressure reference, like the referee in a wrestling match deciding who takes the lead

  • breezzi
    2023-07-05
    breezzi

    Haha, gold is like that one friend who always needs some buying support at the integer mark near 1900

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