Public Holidays

No public holidays for Hong Kong, Singapore the US & China in the coming week.

Economic Calendar (31Jul2023)‌

Economic calendar for the week staring 31 July 2023

Notable Highlights

PMI - The US and China will be releasing their PMI data in the coming week. For China, its July Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.2 and 46.5 for US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Both seem to imply a contraction in their manufacturing. On top of these, there will also be S&P Global US services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. These will be for the non-manufacturing (some call these services) sector where growth is expected.

Jobs-related data. Various job-related data will be released this week - JOLTs Job Openings (June), ADP Nonfarm employment change, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM for July), Nonfarm payrolls.

Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims will be announced on Thursday. We will also get an update on the unemployment rate. This would form important data points for the Fed to decide on the next interest rate adjustment.

Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, this implies demand erosion that can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending. The last crude oil saw a bigger drawdown than expected.

Earnings Calendar (31 Jul 2023) ~ is it time for Amazon’s ascent?‌

This is another big week of earnings for various sectors. Personally, there are a few companies of personal interest that include Amazon, Apple, Pfizer, Starbucks, AMD, Occidental and PayPal.

Amazon’s performance (AMZN)‌

The performance of Amazon for the last 10 years is rather mixed. Despite annual revenue growth, there are concerns about the recent drop in profitability - 24.8B (2021) compared to 12.2B (2022).

The above is taken from Google Bard about Amazon’s performance of recent years.

After 1 year, AMZN’s stock has dropped 2.03% despite dropping to a recent low of 81.43. The P/E ratio of the stock stands at 314 with an EPS of 0.421. This does make AMZN appear overpriced.

For the coming earning, the forecast for the EPS and revenue are 0.3548 and 131.45B respectively. Does Amazon have the earnings & outlook to continue its ascent?

Market Outlook - 31 Jul 2023

S&P500 1D chart as of 30 Jul 2023

Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart:

The stochastic indicator is on a downtrend.

The MACD indicator is on a downtrend but has completed a top crossover. The indicator seems to be ranging sideways too.

Moving Averages (MA). Both MA50 & MA200 lines are on an uptrend. With the last candle being above both the MA50 line and MA200 lines, this can be interpreted as an uptrend in the mid-term and the long-term.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The lines are on an uptrend. Thus, the current uptrend remains in momentum as the reversal is not confirmed (by the crossovers of the EMA lines).

From the technical indicators above, there are a total of 20 (Buy), 1 (Sell) and 1 (Neutral). Investing recommends a “STRONG BUY” based on the technical indicators above (1D chart for S&P500).

My thoughts

From the technicals above, there is a mixture of bullish and bearish signals though more lean towards bullish. Personally, I recommend caution, preparing for a correction.

‌@TigerStars  ‌

‌$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  ‌

‌$Apple(AAPL)$  ‌

‌$Occidental(OXY)$  ‌