India's unemployment tsunami will hit in a matter of years when AI can replace of the entry level white collar work. When the jobs are "relocated" from the West to India, it is not a permanent but a temporal case. Workers will need to create value, fighting innovations and AI to create value in the market. There will be a major reset but there will also be new roles created. It is time to learn and pivot. $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$
The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing
The 2025 State of Private Markets: Navigating Volatility, Leverage Risks, and the Credit Rebalancing Summary The report analyses the transformation of private markets in 2025, focusing on the impact of higher interest rates, the rise of private credit, the risks associated with Payment-in-Kind (PIK) provisions, and the evolving strategies for risk management and due diligence. It highlights how the sector is adapting to a new era of tighter liquidity, increased defaults, and a shift from growth-at-all-costs to capital preservation and transparency. Key Findings done with NoteBookLM 1. Macro Environment Shift The move from near-zero rates to a higher-rate paradigm has fundamentally changed private market valuations and liquidity needs. Public markets corrected sharply due to a lag in invest
(Part 5 of 5) My investing muse (23Feb2026) - Iran adds to the volatility
My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies NEW GRADUATES NOW ACCOUNT FOR JUST 7% OF NEW HIRES AT BIG TECH COMPANIES, DOWN FROM 25% IN 2023 AND OVER 50% PRE-PANDEMIC, PER FORBES. CREDIT CARD DEBT IS BECOMING A GROWING FINANCIAL RISK. MORE THAN 12% OF BALANCES ARE 90+ DAYS DELINQUENT — THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 15 YEARS — WHILE AVERAGE INTEREST RATES ARE AROUND 21%. - First Squawk Walgreens to lay off hundreds of employees nationwide - MacroEdge America’s biggest wine maker shuts down production in Napa Valley in huge blow to wine heartland - California Post United Parcel Service (UPS) is planning to close dozens of packaging facilities this year, the shipping giant revealed in a court filing this week. - MacroEdge The 60+ day delinquency rate on US subprime auto loans is up to a recor
News and my thoughts from the past week (23Feb2026) The Cass Freight Index fell -7.1% YoY in January, to 0.89 points, now down to its lowest level since April 2009. This index tracks freight volumes across North America and is viewed as a gauge of US economic momentum. This also marks the 36th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak on record. Over this period, shipments have fallen -20.9%, a similar decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. According to Cass Information Systems, normal seasonal trends suggest February could see an -11.0% YoY decline. The US freight recession is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter Following Iran’s brief closure of part of the waterway, tanker freight rates surged, with transaction levels climbing to their highest point in seven months.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (23Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting on the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a potential change in trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently r
(Part 2 of 5) Earnings Calendar - Salesforce for our portfolio? (23Feb2026)
Earnings Calendar (23Feb2026) - Salesforce Several notable companies are expected to release their earnings reports in the coming week. Among the companies of interest are AMC, Home Depot, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Baidu, and Dell. These earnings announcements are closely watched by investors and analysts, as they offer insight into each company’s financial performance and market outlook. Salesforce: AI and Market Disruption Focusing on Salesforce, the ongoing AI revolution is anticipated to generate substantial value within the business sector. This technological advancement is expected to cause significant disruptions for companies such as Salesforce, SAP, and Monday, reshaping how they operate and compete in the marketplace. Over the past year, the company’s stock price has experienced a sign
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar starting 23Feb2026
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026) China Market Holiday China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies. CB Consumer Confidence The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy. Initial Jobless Claims Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitor
(Full Article) Preview of the week starting 23Feb2026 - Salesforce a good addition?
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 23Feb2026) China Market Holiday China will be closed on Monday, February 23, as the country continues its celebrations for the Chinese New Year. This closure may affect global market activity due to reduced participation from one of the world’s largest economies. CB Consumer Confidence The Consumer Board (CB) consumer confidence data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 86.0, which is an increase from the previous reading of 84.5. This index is significant because it reflects consumer confidence and provides insight into the overall outlook for the broader economy. Initial Jobless Claims Data on initial jobless claims will also be released, with the previous figure reported at 206,000. This indicator is closely monitor