Last Friday night was a Quadruple witching day , Which actually refers to an important time when stock index futures, stock index futures options (quarterly options), stock futures and individual stock options are delivered at the same time.
Because the trading volume of derivatives in US stocks is larger than that in underlying shares, the market generally believes that this day is easy to cause market resonance (for example, if there is unilateral decline, large institutions will be busy hedging and increase the kinetic energy of market decline). Friday coincided with the general strike of the trade unions of the three major American car companies, which just brought reasons for the market to fall.
In terms of time window,The risk period of US stocks from August to October has just passed half, and there will be China's National Day holiday in the future. During this period, US stocks have always been easy to do bad things, so it is expected that the US stock index will fall easily.
At present, from the perspective of technical analysis, next week is the time for the US stock index to test the medium and long-term trend line. Since the US stock index futures Main contract have changed, the December contract is 50 points higher than the September contract (calculated by S&P), so the current important support price is around 4450, and if it falls below the upward trend of the US stock index since the first half of the year, There will be another great correction.
It is estimated that the adjustment range is consistent with the previous expectation, and will fall back to the range of 4000-4100. However, you still need to pay attention to the situation in October in time. If it really falls to October, and the range matches the time, it will usher in an opportunity of buying the dip. At present, it is best not to advance too quickly.
Beware of the US Dollar Index's acceleration
The US Dollar Index has been strong since July, and such strong trends tend to accelerate in the end. Acceleration is not a bad thing,This shows that the US Dollar Index is not far from the last rise. However, it is difficult for us to predict the extent of the last increase and the news, so we do not recommend that you take this lightly. Accelerated the US Dollar Index will bring certain pressure to the market, including US stocks and commodities.
Of course, the exchange rates of other countries will also be affected, so foreign exchange friends can pay attention to it.
How much more can crude oil rise?
Since July, the rise of the US dollar is consistent with the rise of crude oil, which shows that the market believes that oil prices are directly linked to inflation, and inflation will rise sooner or later when oil prices rise, so the Federal Reserve has to continue its rate hike in response to inflation. The key here is whether the oil price can continue to rise.
There is no ceiling for Russia to jointly reduce production?This is not realistic. Although the oil price has risen at present, WTI has not completely exceeded 90 US dollars (average contract price in each month)It means that the oil price has not yet reached the average selling price range for the US government to sell strategic oil reserves.
Now it is time to see who has the pricing power of oil price. If the United States still has no specific countermeasures, then the oil price will only be bullish but not negative, and it is not difficult for the price to break 100. The most feared thing is that the United States suddenly makes a move, which leads to large fluctuations in oil prices. Therefore, oil prices should follow first, and retreat at any time as long as there is news from the United States.
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