if I only have one chance, then surely I'll pick 100% chance for 1 million. there's nothing that beat the certainty of things, even when the offer is 100 times higher
however, if I have 3 chances, then the route will be different. I'll pick the 70% for 1 billion first. if I win I'll go directly for 50% for 100 billion, and if I lose I'll try to secure the 90% of 10 million. as for the third choice, if I secure a win then I'll take 50% for 100 billion, but if I lose twice then I'll go for 100% for 1 million.
I'll try to maximize the profit from taking the chances to win. it's probably not a mathematically or statistically true; however, that's the best that I can think of.
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