Market all set for CPI Tuesday!! A big correction imminent!

Asphen
2023-11-14

Background

Been doing price analysis for some years now and it still marvels me on how market makers always moves price action to a level where it is setup for a break above or below from an event!


Since the bear trap laid on 9 Nov, price action has moved into a bull flag with liquidity building and also from weekend analysis, price action is coming to resistance and confluence with key levels too


Bullish scenario

- A good CPI reaction will bring about a break of 441 and head towards 445


Bearish scenario

- A bad CPI reaction will play out the topping of the price action and bring about the further formation of an inverse Cup, possibly leading to a handle at the cup formation of 437 (MA5 on Daily Chart) and handle forming down to 432 (MA50 on Daily Chart) and below.


For any bullish plays to remain, SPY simply has to stay above 437 and 432.

Breaking below, points to a very bearish view.

S&P500 (SPY) - Daily & 30mins Charts - 14 Nov 2023

@CaptainTiger  @melson  @Deposit  @TigerStars  @macroB  @LMSunshine  

$SPY(SPY)$ 

Will CPI drop as expected and Fed pause again?
Trading Economics expect October CPI to be 3.3%, lower than the previous data of 3.7%; the estimates of core CPI is 4%, slightly lower than the previous data of 4%. The decline of oil prices in October will help drive the CPI down. The market expects another pause in December after Fed skips rate hike in November. --------------------- Will CPI drop as expected and lead to another pause? Or will Fed increase 25bps in December?
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Comments

  • macroB
    2023-11-14
    macroB
    thanks for sharing!


    interesting to see if 🧸 will appear at this gap fill right above the inverse h&s neckline on the daily.
    • Asphen: 
      indeed!!! we will know v soon!
  • melson
    2023-11-14
    melson
    [Applaud] [Happy]
  • LMSunshine
    2023-11-15
    LMSunshine
    Spot on buddy❣️
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